MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-11 02:00:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Masahiro Tanaka							Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-200							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.331	28.9%	86.8	21.2%	49.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.370	32.4%	89.7	21.6%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.332	39.1%	87.6	27.3%	41.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.374	30.8%	88.2	13.8%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,500
	Salary Rank:			3 of 29	Salary Rank:			7 of 29	Salary Rank:		6 of 29
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%	92.2	15.1%
	2018	13	3.63	4.58	24.8%	6.5%	44.8%	34.9%	18.7%	91.7	14.0%

Tanaka has missed nearly a month with not one, but two hamstring injuries. You rarely see someone pull both hamstrings at the same time, but he’ll be back on the mound tonight against the Orioles. He made one rehab start in the minors and was able to throw 69 pitches. I doubt we’ll see him throw 100+ pitches tonight, but I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility. He was in good form before the injury, posting a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. His biggest weakness has always been the long ball and while the Orioles have struggled offensively this season, they are still capable of hitting home runs. With this being his first start back, I plan to look elsewhere at pitcher, even though Tanaka has a great track record against Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown: For single-entry tournaments and cash games, there are better options. If you are building multiple tournament lineups, Tanaka deserves consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$5,000	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:			20 of 29	Salary Rank:			26 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%	93.4	6.1%
	2018	17	4.92	4.39	17.7%	10.1%	40.4%	31.6%	18.6%	92.8	6.9%
	L14	3	5.56	3.00	13.0%	10.4%	44.1%	35.6%	25.4%	92.8	3.5%

Cashner has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In 17 starts, he has a 4.92 SIERA with a walk rate of 10%. He’s always one of my favorite pitchers to stack against because he has a low ground ball rate, a low strikeout rate, and a low swinging strike rate. This is a perfect matchup for an offense like the Yankees, who tend to mash pitchers that have low strikeout rates. As one of the largest underdogs of the slate, Cashner is one of the easiest fades on the schedule.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacks of the slate and hopefully with a game in Coors Field, their ownership won’t be outrageous in tournaments. The Yankees are third in the majors in runs scored and first in home runs hit and it sounds like they are trying to add Manny Machado, which would make an elite offense even better. I have no concerns about their matchup against Andrew Cashner. His ground ball rate has basically disappeared this season and he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The hitters in this lineup are certainly expensive, but there are a few cheap pitching options that I have my eye on in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.308	87.1	0.152	29.9%	12.4%	15.3%	50.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.401	96.5	0.300	49.0%	14.1%	30.9%	46.3%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,600
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	88.9	0.217	38.4%	14.1%	18.6%	43.5%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	CF	$8,700
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.300	91.3	0.183	33.8%	8.3%	33.9%	53.9%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,500
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.349	88.5	0.245	39.7%	9.2%	12.7%	34.2%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500	SS	$9,300
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.352	90.2	0.202	36.6%	2.8%	17.2%	49.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,500
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.318	88.8	0.227	37.1%	9.1%	26.3%	38.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
8	Kyle Higashioka	RIGHT	0.291	84.6	0.200	36.4%	11.8%	23.5%	18.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	C	$7,500
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.337	88.3	0.080	35.9%	10.3%	21.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,400	1B/2B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.335	89.4	0.201	37.4%	10.2%	22.2%	41.8%

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The O’s have had little to no success against Masahiro Tanaka in the past. Their current roster has a .243 batting average with 43 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances against him. It’s safe to say that those aren’t the type of BvP numbers that we are looking for. The two hitters that have had some success against him are Adam Jones (11-for-27 with three home runs) and Jonathan Schoop (8-for-29 with three home runs). This isn’t a spot to stack Baltimore, but Jones and Schoop are both viable as one-offs in tournaments. As mentioned earlier, Tanaka’s biggest weakness throughout his career has been the long ball. In his last 43 starts, he has allowed 51 home runs (30 to right-handed hitters).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.260	85.7	0.038	23.7%	4.5%	27.0%	49.3%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,000	SS	$5,900
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.339	88.6	0.186	32.0%	3.4%	18.0%	42.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.395	92.7	0.258	37.4%	11.4%	15.3%	38.3%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,900	3B	$9,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.377	93.3	0.238	42.6%	7.5%	24.4%	37.0%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,800	DH	$7,300
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.295	87.1	0.101	35.0%	7.4%	35.0%	41.3%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,900
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.244	84.9	0.198	25.3%	2.4%	23.8%	48.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
7	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.346	91.3	0.128	33.3%	6.7%	22.7%	45.2%	OF	$2,400	3B/OF	$3,400	3B	$6,600
8	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.369	90.8	0.152	32.9%	9.3%	24.5%	51.6%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,300
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.247	84.3	0.159	27.1%	1.4%	31.0%	34.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.319	88.7	0.162	32.1%	6.0%	24.6%	43.0%

Elite Plays – Adam Jones (GPP), Jonathan Schoop (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo (GPP), Manny Machado (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Washington								Pittsburgh
			Jeremy Hellickson							Joe Musgrove
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-101							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.356	29.2%	88.3	19.7%	44.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.321	36.2%	86.7	14.3%	45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.323	30.0%	87.1	18.0%	45.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.276	30.4%	86.4	25.0%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:			21 of 29	Salary Rank:			20 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2017	30	5.37	5.43	13.8%	6.8%	34.9%	32.0%	19.9%	90.2	8.3%
	2018	11	3.93	3.81	19.0%	4.3%	45.2%	29.6%	19.5%	89.4	8.8%
	L14	2	5.12	11.42	12.8%	6.4%	36.1%	27.0%	18.9%	89.8	6.4%

Hellickson has basically been living in the first third of his name since coming back from injury. He failed to make it out of the fifth inning against both the Phillies and Marlins, surrendering a total of 16 hits and 12 runs in those two starts. He now travels to Pittsburgh to take on a Pirates’ offense that has been trending upward over the last few weeks. This is a low-strikeout offense that is finally getting production from their left-handed hitters that got off to a slow start this season. Given the form and the matchup, we should look elsewhere for our SP2.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hellickson in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	2017	15	4.04	4.77	21.2%	6.1%	44.9%	30.2%	20.2%	92.9	11.7%
	2018	7	4.07	3.79	20.3%	6.2%	45.6%	33.1%	19.7%	93.1	10.2%
	L14	1	4.29	0.00	17.2%	6.9%	52.4%	27.3%	22.7%	92.6	11.4%

The Grove of Mus will take the mound for Pittsburgh tonight. He’s had an up and down season, but owns a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. Those are very mediocre numbers for a major league starter, so it takes a favorable matchup to justify playing him in a slate this size. While the Nationals have been a big disappointment this season, they are far from a favorable matchup now that they are healthy. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .338 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching. We rarely see games in Pittsburgh with an over/under of 9.0 runs, which makes both of these pitchers easy fades.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Grove of Mus in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals had that team meeting and then reeled off three straight wins. They appeared to be heading in the right direction before losing two straight to the Pirates. They will look to get back on track tonight against Joe Musgrove, who has allowed a .321 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Perhaps more importantly, he has only struck out 14% of the lefties that he has faced this season. While the ballpark isn’t ideal, the matchup sets up well for Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, and Adam Eaton, who all bat from the left side and who all owns a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.335	89.2	0.148	33.2%	9.2%	21.1%	54.0%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,400	IF/OF	$10,500
2	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.399	90.0	0.202	38.3%	18.1%	18.1%	45.7%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	LF	$8,600
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.398	91.4	0.228	36.7%	9.9%	14.6%	34.4%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.403	91.0	0.286	42.9%	19.4%	23.3%	36.3%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,500
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.420	91.1	0.373	44.9%	10.5%	25.0%	38.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
6	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.346	88.0	0.073	15.7%	6.7%	8.3%	31.4%	1B	$3,000	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
7	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.380	87.2	0.115	42.3%	8.2%	16.3%	47.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,200
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.333	85.7	0.143	20.9%	10.7%	10.7%	37.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.030	69.1	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	55.6%	100.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,700	P	$13,200
	Team Averages		0.338	87.0	0.174	30.5%	10.3%	21.4%	47.2%

Elite Plays – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

I played a lot of Pirates last night, I just didn’t end up on the right ones. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco were the key plays in the Pirates’ stack. We can go right back to the well tonight, as they draw just as favorable of a matchup. Jeremy Hellickson has been shelled in each of his last two starts and has allowed a .356 xwOBA to lefties and a .323 xwOBA to righties this season. Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran (who remains dirt cheap across the industry for seemingly no reason), and Francisco Cervelli all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Josh Bell is an intriguing value play if he ends up batting leadoff again ($2,800 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	88.4	0.129	29.7%	9.9%	16.8%	52.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,400
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.319	86.6	0.167	29.9%	6.2%	20.7%	47.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,900	CF	$8,900
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.362	90.8	0.221	35.5%	13.9%	22.9%	33.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,300
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.374	88.5	0.168	34.5%	8.9%	14.8%	41.5%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,500
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.412	89.7	0.243	38.4%	13.3%	19.4%	33.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.339	87.7	0.159	34.2%	4.1%	11.8%	33.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.278	82.8	0.090	29.9%	3.8%	15.3%	38.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.317	88.1	0.136	26.5%	7.5%	23.3%	41.3%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.118	75.0	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	22.2%	80.0%	P	$7,500	P	$7,600	P	$15,000
	Team Averages		0.316	86.4	0.146	30.3%	7.5%	18.6%	44.6%

Elite Plays – Colin Moran, Josh Bell (GPP), Gregory Polanco (FD), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell (Cash), Gregory Polanco (DK), Francisco Cervelli (FD), Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Cleveland
			Sal Romano							Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-230							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.382	0.387	41.0%	90.2	16.8%	43.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.259	33.6%	84.9	33.0%	46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.333	31.9%	86.8	17.8%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.283	36.7%	88.7	29.9%	44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$4,900	Salary:		$9,400
	Salary Rank:			22 of 29	Salary Rank:			27 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29
	2017	16	4.72	4.45	19.0%	9.6%	50.4%	32.6%	21.5%	95.3	8.7%
	2018	18	4.72	5.40	17.3%	9.0%	45.7%	36.2%	21.2%	94.2	7.8%
	L14	2	3.40	5.40	23.9%	4.4%	50.0%	31.3%	25.0%	94.7	13.4%

Romano has pitched well in his last two starts, but it was at home against the Brewers and White Sox. He now has to travel to Cleveland to take on the Indians. This is one of the easier fades of the slate. He has allowed a .387 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and is facing a left-handed heavy offense in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. That’s a lot of left-handed goodness for the Indians’ side of the matchup. If you don’t want to listen to me, listen to the betting markets — the Indians are -230 favorites in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: In the voice of Lil Jon, “Indians will hit Romanoooooo, to the wall.”

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$12,000	Salary:			$13,600	Salary:		$26,600
	Salary Rank:			1 of 29	Salary Rank:			1 of 29	Salary Rank:		1 of 29
	2017	31	3.80	4.19	26.2%	8.0%	46.4%	34.4%	15.0%	94.0	9.2%
	2018	18	3.05	2.45	31.3%	7.4%	44.9%	35.4%	16.2%	94.6	13.1%
	L14	2	2.89	2.51	28.1%	3.5%	42.1%	26.3%	26.3%	94.5	11.6%

Bauer is one of the top pitchers of the slate, but his price is a bit prohibitive. He is $12,000 on FanDuel and $13,600 on DraftKings. He basically needs to crack 30+ fantasy points to justify the price on DraftKings. While that’s certainly possible, it forces our hand when it comes to selecting hitters. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Bauer owns a 3.05 SIERA and a 31% strikeout rate on the season. He has an electric fastball and an ability to make batters miss (13.1% swinging strike rate). If there are enough values that open up tonight, you can certainly play Bauer in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: I like Bauer better as a cash game play than a tournament play. I like to chase the strikeout upside from the mid-range pitchers and load up on hitters in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

I’m still kicking myself for not playing Scott Schebler last night on DraftKings. It was basically a perfect setup for him. He was underpriced, he was facing a pitcher that struggled against lefties, and he was playing in a ballpark that favored left-handed power. You live and you learn. Moving on to tonight’s game, the Reds are a full fade in my eyes. Trevor Bauer has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.369	90.6	0.220	41.8%	8.9%	22.3%	50.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.310	82.8	0.113	31.8%	6.8%	12.4%	36.5%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.464	89.2	0.163	40.7%	17.6%	12.5%	32.8%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,000
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.356	87.0	0.184	40.2%	7.5%	17.1%	38.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,000
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.411	91.6	0.277	50.0%	9.7%	19.0%	35.9%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,100	3B	$9,600
6	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.399	91.4	0.120	46.1%	13.8%	12.4%	41.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,800
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.337	86.0	0.108	39.0%	9.5%	16.9%	40.9%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.357	87.6	0.194	33.3%	7.0%	27.4%	34.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,800
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.246	78.9	0.067	20.0%	11.0%	24.7%	47.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.361	87.2	0.161	38.1%	10.2%	18.3%	39.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians took forever to get going offensively last night against Anthony Desclafani. Being one of the more popular stacks on Monday, recency bias could help lower their ownership in tonight’s slate. Sal Romano is a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a fair amount of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .387 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. A quick look at the graph at the top of the page shows how kind Progressive Field is to lefties. I will keep hammering the Indians’ stack in tournaments, as they are going to break out and score double-digit runs sooner rather than later. Every hitter in their projected lineup has a 37%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.411	89.4	0.290	41.1%	9.9%	19.5%	35.7%	SS	$4,800	SS	$5,800	SS	$10,200
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.412	91.2	0.207	43.1%	6.8%	8.8%	42.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,100
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.424	89.5	0.342	39.1%	16.8%	11.5%	31.2%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,900	IF/OF	$10,900
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	90.5	0.269	42.9%	8.3%	23.4%	38.1%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,700
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.382	90.5	0.180	40.9%	9.7%	20.7%	38.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.353	87.2	0.127	37.6%	9.7%	19.0%	36.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
7	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.320	90.1	0.086	40.0%	4.0%	25.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,500
8	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.240	88.9	0.094	40.0%	8.3%	38.5%	52.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.266	86.0	0.116	38.0%	5.8%	24.3%	42.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.356	89.3	0.190	40.3%	8.8%	21.3%	41.0%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Detroit								Tampa Bay
			Matt Boyd							Ryne Stanek
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -180							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.262	40.3%	85.5	24.7%	33.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.164	0.211	18.8%	88.3	40.5%	37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.319	35.8%	86.8	19.0%	30.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.351	46.8%	90.9	27.9%	40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%	92.0	10.0%
	2018	17	4.62	4.58	20.3%	9.0%	31.2%	36.8%	20.1%	89.3	10.0%
	L14	2	3.75	8.10	23.3%	4.7%	36.7%	45.2%	19.4%	89.9	13.3%

Boyd has one green statistic in his pitching table above (looking at the last two seasons). He does a nice job of inducing soft contact. After that, there isn’t a lot to love. In 17 starts this season, he has a 4.62 SIERA with a walk rate of 9% and a hard contact rate that is nearly 6% higher than his ground ball rate. I still don’t understand how he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. As mentioned yesterday, the Rays as a whole aren’t great against left-handed pitching, but they have four hitters in the heart of their batting order with at least a .210 ISO against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is a mediocre option at best. In a 15-game slate, he’s not going to make the final cut.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ryne Stanek
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:			25 of 29	Salary Rank:			29 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29
	2017	0	3.67	5.85	30.5%	12.6%	35.2%	44.4%	3.7%	98.2	15.4%
	2018	10	3.54	1.84	31.9%	12.9%	39.7%	39.7%	22.2%	98.1	14.6%
	L14	3	2.76	1.35	42.9%	14.3%	58.3%	41.7%	25.0%	97.7	18.0%

Stanek hasn’t pitched more than two innings all season. Even if he dominates in his short outing and picks up four strikeouts, he’s still not going to reach value at his current price point. We could go into more detail, but what’s the point? I have yet to see who will follow Stanek tonight, but will likely be avoiding that reliever as well.

Quick Breakdown: This is one of those games that I will have very little exposure to as a whole.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers will have a tough matchup against Ryne Stanek for a couple of innings and then will likely face a number of different relievers the rest of the way. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are large underdogs in a game that features a total of only 8.0 runs. The one and only hitter that I may have some interest in is Ronny Rodriguez and that’s only if he is batting leadoff again. He has fared well since being called up to the majors and he is dirt cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.299	87.3	0.175	30.3%	4.1%	28.8%	41.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,800
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.377	89.6	0.196	47.8%	5.5%	22.5%	32.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,800
3	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.300	87.2	0.192	34.0%	11.9%	24.3%	38.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.332	88.2	0.220	35.1%	8.5%	31.4%	42.3%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,700
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.279	85.8	0.150	41.2%	4.5%	30.7%	44.1%	1B	$2,700	1B/C	$3,600	1B	$7,500
6	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.351	88.4	0.073	41.1%	7.5%	10.2%	41.1%	C	$2,200	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.275	88.3	0.071	36.4%	5.1%	21.0%	38.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.274	84.3	0.090	24.3%	3.5%	11.2%	46.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,600
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.246	82.4	0.060	32.7%	1.5%	17.6%	51.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.304	86.8	0.136	35.9%	5.8%	22.0%	41.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ronny Rodriguez (if batting leadoff)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays stack worked wonders last night, especially at their cheap price points. Tonight’s matchup isn’t quite as favorable, but the same four hitters that were on my radar last night are viable once again. Daniel Robertson, Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron, and Jake Bauers all boast a .210+ ISO against left-handed pitching this season. While Matt Boyd has managed to hold left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Eventually, that’s going to translate into extra-base hits for his opponents.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.200	81.5	0.152	15.0%	8.3%	36.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,500
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.317	88.7	0.086	31.3%	6.8%	19.3%	57.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
3	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.403	85.4	0.212	33.9%	17.1%	13.4%	48.2%	2B	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,600	2B	$7,300
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.411	92.1	0.210	40.9%	4.7%	17.6%	47.0%	C	$3,100	C	$4,300	C	$8,100
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.344	90.1	0.220	41.0%	7.8%	30.1%	41.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,500
6	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.335	83.8	0.269	52.6%	13.3%	23.3%	52.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.291	85.2	0.018	30.8%	6.6%	8.2%	44.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.276	86.8	0.169	29.6%	3.5%	27.1%	27.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,600
9	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.247	84.8	0.154	38.5%	3.7%	48.1%	23.1%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.314	86.5	0.166	34.8%	8.0%	24.8%	43.5%

Elite Plays – Wilson Ramos (DK), C.J. Cron (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (FD), C.J. Cron (Cash), Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson, Jake Bauers

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Miami
			Jhoulys Chacin							Pablo Lopez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-135							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.364	39.8%	88.4	14.3%	43.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.355	33.3%	85.0	19.1%	57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	0.309	38.3%	86.5	23.9%	36.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.417	0.427	45.0%	88.8	16.0%	55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:			11 of 29	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29
	2017	32	4.63	3.89	20.0%	9.4%	49.1%	28.5%	20.2%	91.4	7.9%
	2018	19	4.77	3.63	18.9%	10.0%	40.6%	39.1%	17.6%	89.9	9.2%
	L14	2	3.58	2.25	25.5%	8.5%	53.6%	44.8%	27.6%	90.4	12.2%

Chacin has shown up in the most random matchups this season. Throughout his career, the book on him has been simple — target him when he’s facing right-handed heavy offenses and load up on the opposing offense when it is filled with lefties. His fantasy appeal tonight will hinge on what the Marlins’ lineup looks like. At the moment, their projected lineup only has three lefties in it. If Chacin is facing six righties, I will have plenty of interest in him in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. He has held righties to a .309 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate this season. We’ve also seen Chacin post a 12.2% swinging strike rate in his last two starts.

Quick Breakdown: As long as he has the platoon advantage against the Marlins, I’ll have some shares of Chacin.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Pablo Lopez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:			25 of 29	Salary Rank:			23 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29

	2018	2	4.16	5.73	17.4%	6.5%	55.9%	40.0%	17.1%	92.5	8.9%
	L14	2	4.16	5.73	17.4%	6.5%	55.9%	40.0%	17.1%	92.5	8.9%

Lopez is making his third career major league start and his seventh career start above the Double-A level. He hasn’t been great in his first two starts at this level and he didn’t show much upside in his four Triple-A starts earlier this year (19% strikeout rate). He has decent velocity and he throws a changeup and a curve, but he’s still an unknown quantity at the major league level. In these situations, I lean heavily on the betting markets. Lopez is listed as a small underdog against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .352 xwOBA and a massive 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach with Lopez.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brew Crew could be a sneaky stack tonight in Miami. Granted, this is one of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball, but they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his third career major league start. We know the Brewers are loaded with power (just look at how many blue boxes they have in the table below) and they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats since they are playing on the road. The main issue here is that they aren’t priced at any sort of discount. The Brewers’ stack is nearly as expensive as the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rockies, or Indians.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.411	92.6	0.328	48.8%	12.1%	27.0%	33.3%	OF	$4,000	1B/OF	$4,900	1B	$9,100
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	89.1	0.112	35.3%	13.4%	19.4%	59.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,000
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.394	93.1	0.196	45.7%	10.8%	22.9%	51.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,400
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.395	90.6	0.314	46.0%	7.9%	27.8%	31.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,900
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.400	90.2	0.276	41.8%	14.2%	17.6%	33.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,000
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.351	92.1	0.191	46.6%	10.7%	31.5%	34.0%	SS	$2,700	1B/2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
7	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.388	87.3	0.368	44.8%	4.9%	24.4%	32.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	3B	$6,900
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.302	92.5	0.163	56.3%	2.1%	23.4%	40.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
9	Jhoulys Chacin	RIGHT	0.198	80.8	0.000	31.6%	6.9%	27.6%	64.7%	P	$7,700	P	$8,500	P	$15,900
	Team Averages		0.352	89.8	0.216	44.1%	9.2%	24.6%	42.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw, Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

I always feel like a fish when I roster anyone from Miami. I wonder why. They have one of the easiest matchups to break down tonight, as they square off against a pitcher with severe splits. On the season, Jhoulys Chacin has held righties to a .309 xwOBA. Meanwhile, he has allowed a .364 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Marlins have three lefties in their projected lineup tonight and only two of them are on my radar — Derek Dietrich (.350 xwOBA against righties) and Justin Bour (.385 xwOBA against righties).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.350	88.2	0.160	36.0%	6.3%	21.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.356	89.9	0.112	37.9%	7.8%	18.9%	51.5%	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
3	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.385	90.5	0.239	42.6%	16.9%	25.1%	39.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,600
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.315	87.7	0.127	36.4%	5.9%	19.0%	48.8%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,300
5	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.287	89.1	0.082	25.0%	4.5%	19.1%	44.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,900
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.323	88.0	0.212	35.4%	4.5%	21.6%	42.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.298	88.5	0.076	38.4%	10.4%	24.6%	49.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,900
8	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.246	83.1	0.016	17.0%	7.0%	16.9%	35.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,600
9	Pablo Lopez	RIGHT	0.009	71.9	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	60.0%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,700	P	$10,900
	Team Averages		0.285	86.3	0.114	29.9%	7.0%	25.1%	50.4%

Elite Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash), Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 10th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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