MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-27 02:22:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Philadelphia
			Luis Severino							Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-205							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.252	0.297	35.2%	9.6%	33.8%	43.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.320	26.3%	10.8%	17.3%	54.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.240	0.285	30.4%	4.4%	27.9%	45.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.295	28.2%	5.9%	16.0%	56.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$13,100	Salary:		$24,100
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	16	3.01	2.24	30.2%	6.4%	44.9%	32.0%	22.7%
	L14	3	3.29	2.41	28.4%	6.8%	39.1%	27.7%	25.5%

There are 14 games on the schedule tonight. We kick off the slate with the Yankees and Phillies. While the game is being played under National League rules, this is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. That’s a concern for most pitchers, but not for Severino. He is quickly becoming part of the elite of the elites. In 16 starts this season, he has a 3.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 6%. He keeps the ball on the ground and induces a lot of soft contact. His matchup against the Phillies is the icing on the cake — their projected lineup has a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is not only an elite play, but he’s right there with Corey Kluber as the number one pitching option of the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%
	2018	14	4.36	3.42	16.6%	8.0%	55.6%	27.4%	19.5%
	L14	2	5.04	6.75	13.3%	8.9%	50.0%	47.1%	8.8%

Arrieta is not the type of pitcher that I like to target in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate and relies on run prevention for most of his fantasy production. I would much rather target a pitcher that can afford to make a few mistakes thanks to a higher k-rate. In his 14 starts this season, Arrieta has a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. His ground ball and hard contact rates are encouraging, but not enough to warrant consideration in a matchup against the Yankees. New York is currently ranked second in wOBA and first in ISO against right-handed pitching on the season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Arrieta in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees don’t get to use the DH in this series, but they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and facing a low-strikeout pitcher. As I often mention, the best way to beak this team is with a high-strikeout pitcher. When they put the ball in play, good things tend to happen. As far as splits are concerned, Jake Arrieta has allowed a .320 xwOBA to lefties and a .295 xwOBA to righties. The Yankees aren’t my favorite stack of the slate, but Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.310	0.286	0.157	31.8%	11.9%	16.4%	49.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.409	0.408	0.301	48.8%	14.9%	29.8%	46.5%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,000
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.356	0.339	0.258	41.2%	9.7%	13.4%	32.9%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,700	SS	$8,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.298	0.336	0.171	34.1%	8.4%	33.6%	53.8%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,000
5	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.281	0.292	0.246	37.5%	5.4%	28.4%	43.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,400
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.364	0.225	0.208	36.3%	3.2%	17.8%	50.7%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,300
7	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.389	0.300	0.214	35.6%	13.6%	18.2%	42.2%	C	$2,400	C	$3,600	C	$7,700
8	Luis Severino	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$10,600	P	$13,100	P	$24,100
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.398	0.334	0.258	39.0%	6.2%	26.7%	29.8%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
	Team Averages		0.312	0.280	0.201	33.8%	8.1%	31.6%	38.8%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge (GPP), Greg Bird (GPP), Miguel Andujar (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Greg Bird (Cash), Miguel Andujar (Cash), Brett Gardner

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the worst matchup of the slate, which makes them an auto-fade with 13 other games on the schedule. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but why take the risk in a slate this size?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.334	0.305	0.150	26.3%	14.1%	22.8%	44.2%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,200	2B	$9,400
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.395	0.411	0.231	34.8%	13.7%	27.8%	28.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$10,100
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.333	0.378	0.206	27.9%	7.8%	19.6%	43.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$10,100
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.387	0.353	0.237	36.4%	19.8%	13.7%	36.7%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$9,400
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.387	0.366	0.237	33.0%	8.6%	23.2%	47.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.307	0.297	0.114	28.1%	6.6%	22.4%	38.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.313	0.303	0.162	22.8%	4.5%	16.7%	55.3%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.261	0.234	0.131	29.0%	3.6%	39.1%	55.3%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.179	0.323	0.158	42.9%	5.0%	60.0%	28.6%	P	$7,300	P	$6,800	P	$14,000
	Team Averages		0.322	0.330	0.181	31.2%	9.3%	27.3%	42.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Baltimore
			James Paxton							Kevin Gausman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.421	0.320	32.6%	8.9%	31.7%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.323	26.6%	9.6%	22.8%	43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.249	0.304	37.6%	7.0%	31.4%	35.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.370	0.365	37.3%	3.7%	21.3%	50.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Paxton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	24	3.45	2.98	28.3%	6.7%	44.9%	30.3%	18.0%
	2018	16	3.04	3.72	31.5%	7.4%	37.8%	36.7%	18.3%
	L14	3	2.54	8.16	34.3%	6.0%	45.0%	55.0%	17.5%

Paxton has an ERA over eight in his last three starts, but has been incredibly unlucky during that stretch. In those outings, he has a 2.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. His numbers as a whole are elite and his price across the industry will keep his ownership down. I see this as a great opportunity to play Paxton in tournaments. Outside of Manny Machado and Danny Valencia, the Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. While they have a right-handed heavy lineup, Paxton has held righties to a .304 xwOBA with a 31% k-rate this season.

Quick Breakdown: Paxton is an elite tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$16,300
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%
	2018	15	3.79	4.38	21.9%	6.3%	47.4%	32.8%	18.1%
	L14	2	5.00	3.09	20.0%	14.0%	46.9%	34.4%	21.9%

Gausman is one of those pitchers that is just as likely to score five fantasy points as he is to score 30 fantasy points. His range of outcomes is incredibly broad, especially in a matchup against the Mariners. On the season, Gausman owns a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. While I like the price point, the Mariners’ projected lineup has a .351 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. There seems to be more risk than upside with Gausman in this matchup, especially in a slate this size.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is a deep tournament flier at best.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Baltimore and draw a boom or bust matchup against Kevin Gausman. When he’s on, he’s a tough pitcher to hit. When he’s off, he gives up runs in bunches. On the season, Gausman has allowed a .365 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Jean Segura (.330 xwOBA), Mitch Haniger (.412 xwOBA), Nelson Cruz (.411 xwOBA), and Ryon Healy (.372 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all hit right-handed pitching well. I should also note that this is the second home run friendliest ballpark to righties in the slate (seen in the ballpark ratings table above).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.276	0.254	0.069	17.9%	2.0%	16.0%	54.0%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.330	0.277	0.144	30.2%	3.6%	13.6%	55.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,300
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.412	0.365	0.251	41.0%	12.2%	23.6%	41.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,000
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.411	0.537	0.254	39.3%	6.7%	19.7%	43.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,800
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.337	0.327	0.202	40.7%	6.2%	20.4%	35.5%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$8,300
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.372	0.391	0.222	41.3%	3.6%	21.3%	41.6%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,800	1B	$8,200
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.353	0.299	0.163	34.8%	13.4%	13.9%	39.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.340	0.260	0.256	43.2%	3.7%	37.8%	40.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.330	0.239	0.112	27.4%	12.8%	18.3%	44.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600	CF	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.351	0.328	0.186	35.1%	7.1%	20.5%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Mitch Haniger (GPP), Nelson Cruz (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger (Cash), Nelson Cruz (Cash), Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Ryon Healy

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. While they are playing at home and while James Paxton recent form looks ugly in terms of his ERA, there are better matchups to exploit. On the season, Paxton has held right-handed hitters to a .304 xwOBA. Manny Machado (.390 xwOBA) and Danny Valencia (.418 xwOBA) both mash left-handed pitching, but are deep tournament darts at best tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.284	0.330	0.072	29.6%	6.8%	20.3%	46.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	LF	$5,400
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.333	0.281	0.069	30.8%	2.2%	11.1%	38.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$7,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.390	0.417	0.244	35.4%	8.7%	5.4%	35.4%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,700	3B	$10,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.340	0.462	0.160	38.9%	7.3%	25.5%	44.4%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,800	DH	$8,500
5	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.418	0.384	0.169	27.3%	11.4%	13.6%	42.4%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.296	0.297	0.140	26.9%	6.9%	25.7%	68.7%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.301	0.313	0.088	27.6%	8.0%	13.3%	43.9%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,300
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.337	0.326	0.211	54.6%	17.4%	34.8%	45.5%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,000	SS	$6,600
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.308	0.336	0.077	21.9%	2.4%	17.1%	37.5%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.334	0.350	0.137	32.6%	7.9%	18.5%	44.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Miami
			Zack Godley							Elieser Hernandez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-150							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.356	31.7%	11.4%	21.1%	61.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.429	0.395	44.3%	12.8%	9.0%	30.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.369	40.2%	10.8%	23.7%	44.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.293	30.0%	3.4%	11.9%	26.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	25	3.67	3.37	26.3%	8.5%	55.3%	32.2%	18.6%
	2018	15	4.26	4.64	22.4%	11.1%	52.5%	36.0%	23.1%
	L14	3	3.65	2.95	27.6%	10.5%	55.6%	40.0%	24.4%

Godley is finally starting to find his form. In his last three starts, he owns a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a ground ball rate of 56%. While his high walk rate has been a concern all year, it’s a lot easier to overlook when he’s striking batters out at a high rate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 29%. Perhaps the most important statistic is that their projected lineup only has a 6% walk rate, which is a big boost for Godley.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Elieser Hernandez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,200	Salary:		$8,300
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30

	2018	4	5.94	5.12	10.2%	8.8%	28.6%	37.8%	13.5%
	L14	0	7.73	7.45	8.5%	19.2%	20.0%	32.4%	20.6%

Hernandez has not pitched well in his first major league stint. In four starts and seven relief appearances, he owns a 5.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 10%. His hard contact rate is nearly 10% higher than his ground ball rate and he doesn’t have the best command. He’s an easy fade against the Diamondbacks, whose offense has been heating up over the last couple of weeks (.338 xwOBA).

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hernandez in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are playing in one of the worst hitter’s parks in the National League, but it’s not all doom and gloom. They are sizable favorites tonight and draw a favorable matchup against Elieser Hernandez, who has allowed a .395 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. While it’s a small sample size, his splits clearly favor lefties. Jon Jay (.347 xwOBA), Jake Lamb (.368 xwOBA), David Peralta (.368 xwOBA), and Daniel Descalso (.377 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all hit right-handed pitching well. If you want to complete the stack, Paul Goldschmidt owns a .457 xwOBA over the last 15 days.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.347	0.354	0.115	38.4%	5.8%	14.0%	53.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	CF	$9,000
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.361	0.457	0.211	44.3%	13.3%	30.4%	41.2%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,900
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.368	0.325	0.175	48.0%	9.4%	25.6%	45.3%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000	3B	$8,400
4	David Peralta	LEFT	0.368	0.384	0.254	52.3%	8.5%	19.0%	48.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
5	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.377	0.337	0.243	43.2%	16.8%	22.7%	30.6%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,600
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	0.389	0.140	28.8%	6.7%	14.6%	51.4%	2B	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,600
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.280	0.449	0.111	53.5%	10.9%	46.5%	37.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,500	C	$5,000
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.284	0.210	0.071	20.7%	11.3%	13.1%	40.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,300
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.062	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	73.3%	0.0%	P	$8,200	P	$9,200	P	$14,500
	Team Averages		0.306	0.338	0.147	36.6%	9.2%	28.8%	38.7%

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Descalso, Alex Avila (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

Zack Godley is a great example of why breaking down splits by timeframe matters. If you zoom out and look at the last two seasons, he’s been an above-average pitcher. If you zoom in over his last few starts, he’s been great. If you only trust the season long stats, you would think that he’s a hittable pitcher given the fact that he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Marlins are not an offense that I target often (even in favorable matchups), so I will not be making an exception tonight against Godley.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.348	0.375	0.173	38.7%	5.4%	21.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$7,500
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.346	0.382	0.102	36.7%	8.2%	21.1%	50.0%	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.404	0.393	0.269	44.6%	6.5%	15.2%	43.2%	C	$3,400	C	$4,400	C	$8,600
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.408	0.352	0.261	43.4%	17.3%	23.6%	36.6%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,500
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.287	0.201	0.107	34.6%	5.0%	20.4%	49.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.337	0.320	0.172	37.2%	4.8%	27.0%	46.3%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.301	0.363	0.114	31.3%	4.9%	13.7%	55.4%	3B	$2,300	3B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,800
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.278	0.348	0.144	40.0%	3.8%	34.9%	50.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,600
9	Elieser Hernandez	RIGHT	0.026	0.038	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	80.0%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,200	P	$8,300
	Team Averages		0.304	0.308	0.149	34.1%	6.2%	28.6%	52.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Boston
			John Lamb							David Price
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-165							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	0.006	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.321	27.5%	6.9%	20.7%	41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.409	0.393	45.8%	5.9%	23.5%	41.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.328	31.2%	9.0%	23.4%	39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Lamb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	2	3.54	5.40	25.0%	5.6%	40.0%	44.0%	16.0%
	L14	2	3.55	5.40	25.0%	5.6%	40.0%	44.0%	16.0%

Lamb is only making his third major league start of the season. While he has shown some strikeout upside in the minors, his track record in the big leagues is spotty. He owns a career 5.01 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22%. To make matters worse, he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. He has to face the Red Sox on the road in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Even though there are some strikeouts in this Red Sox lineup, there are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lamb in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Price
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	11	4.05	3.38	24.0%	7.6%	39.9%	32.9%	20.7%
	2018	15	4.12	3.81	23.0%	8.7%	39.8%	30.6%	21.9%
	L14	2	3.97	2.77	20.0%	2.0%	29.7%	23.7%	18.4%

Price is a pitcher that I’ve been on the wrong side of more times than not this season. Overall, he has slightly above-average numbers — 4.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but he induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which is needed when your home park is Fenway. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Angels, whose projected lineup has a .330 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 23% against southpaws. While he’s far from a core play, his $8,300 price point on DraftKings is appealing in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Price is viable as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels should be better against left-handed hitters than their numbers suggest. Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton have had outlier seasons in terms of their numbers against southpaws. I’m willing to trust their long term form, but it’s not like they are priced at a discount. The main reason to target the Angels tonight is the ballpark. They go from one of the best pitcher’s parks to one of the best hitter’s parks in Fenway. The best idea might be to use Mike Trout as a one-off in both cash games and tournaments. He currently owns a .472 xwOBA with a .396 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.248	0.319	0.097	28.6%	4.6%	9.2%	32.1%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.472	0.401	0.396	38.5%	18.5%	21.5%	25.6%	OF	$5,000	OF	$6,000	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.300	0.397	0.115	45.5%	10.3%	32.8%	42.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.330	0.415	0.111	43.2%	5.2%	19.0%	31.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.302	0.330	0.156	33.3%	5.7%	31.4%	23.8%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.343	0.229	0.078	34.4%	16.5%	5.1%	52.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.343	0.381	0.000	43.8%	7.5%	12.5%	53.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.296	0.267	0.104	44.1%	5.6%	29.6%	33.3%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Hermosillo	RIGHT	0.336	0.093	0.250	66.7%	9.1%	45.5%	33.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.330	0.315	0.145	42.0%	9.2%	23.0%	36.4%

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler (GPP), Justin Upton (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox lineup looks interesting tonight. As you can see below, most of their projected starters have been awful against southpaws this season. The three exceptions are Mookie Betts (.474 xwOBA), J.D. Martinez (.384 xwOBA), and Xander Bogaerts (.409 xwOBA). All three are elite plays tonight against John Lamb, who has allowed a .393 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. If you want to complete the Red Sox stack (which is certainly viable given the Reds’ mediocre bullpen), Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Eduardo Nunez are viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.474	0.376	0.393	37.3%	10.9%	9.4%	37.3%	OF	$4,900	OF	$6,100	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.285	0.439	0.203	14.9%	9.6%	24.7%	48.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.384	0.374	0.156	51.2%	5.9%	33.8%	46.3%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.287	0.439	0.160	38.2%	7.4%	29.6%	47.1%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.409	0.362	0.160	31.4%	13.8%	25.9%	31.4%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.294	0.319	0.031	26.4%	7.0%	18.3%	55.8%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.250	0.320	0.132	26.3%	2.6%	24.4%	45.6%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.256	0.328	0.000	33.3%	7.4%	25.9%	33.3%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.269	0.380	0.059	25.8%	3.6%	35.7%	61.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	0.371	0.144	31.6%	7.6%	25.3%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (GPP), Mitch Moreland (GPP), Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Detroit
			Frankie Montas							Blaine Hardy
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.295	37.7%	6.0%	14.9%	34.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.271	0.348	32.5%	3.9%	13.7%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.320	50.9%	8.3%	15.3%	54.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.297	33.0%	6.4%	18.4%	41.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Frankie Montas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	4.51	7.03	23.7%	13.2%	35.5%	33.3%	17.2%
	2018	5	4.66	2.41	15.1%	7.2%	44.8%	44.3%	12.3%
	L14	2	5.43	4.50	12.5%	12.5%	50.0%	50.0%	14.3%

Montas has a low ERA, but is due for some serious regression. In his five starts this season, he has a 4.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 44%. Eventually those numbers are going to catch up with him, regardless of how favorable the matchup looks on paper. The Tigers have a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but have some good hitters at the top of their lineup. Montas doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the mistakes that he will eventually make.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montas in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blaine Hardy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	4.66	5.94	18.0%	8.3%	33.0%	36.5%	20.0%
	2018	7	4.45	3.30	17.1%	5.7%	41.2%	32.8%	20.2%
	L14	2	3.99	2.31	17.4%	4.4%	54.3%	30.6%	22.2%

Hardy has the same issue as Frankie Montas — he is due for regression. Fortunately, his advanced statistics aren’t as ugly as those of Montas. In seven starts, Hardy has a 4.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. Those numbers are far from ideal. While the A’s have struggled against high-strikeout lefties this season, they have been very good against low-strikeout lefties. Their projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA with a massive 43% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid both starters in what could end up being a sneaky shootout.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats), they are playing in a decent hitter’s park, they draw an exploitable matchup, and their ownership should be low in tournaments. That is quite the combination and one that I will not overlook. Oakland is one of my favorite stacks of the slate. Chad Pinder (.386 xwOBA), Jed Lowrie (.361 xwOBA), Matt Olson (.360 xwOBA), and Stephen Piscotty (.351 xwOBA) have all mashed right-handed pitching well this season. Marcus Semien and Khris Davis have struggled against southpaws this year, but have hit them well throughout their respective careers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.316	0.278	0.192	35.1%	7.3%	22.7%	39.0%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.386	0.438	0.178	64.6%	9.8%	30.5%	48.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.361	0.249	0.117	45.8%	4.6%	18.5%	33.7%	3B	$3,500	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.303	0.398	0.221	40.9%	11.3%	31.3%	47.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.360	0.409	0.141	53.0%	4.9%	26.5%	37.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.351	0.393	0.118	29.3%	9.3%	20.9%	51.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.344	0.406	0.329	37.5%	5.0%	25.0%	32.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.274	0.440	0.048	31.4%	10.1%	15.9%	43.1%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT	0.390	0.295	0.353	50.0%	5.6%	38.9%	40.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.343	0.367	0.189	43.1%	7.5%	25.6%	41.6%

Elite Plays – Chad Pinder (GPP), Jed Lowrie (GPP), Khris Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Chad Pinder (Cash), Jed Lowrie (Cash), Khris Davis (Cash), Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are cheap and have plenty of upside in a matchup against Frankie Montas. Throw out the sub-three ERA and look at his advanced numbers. He is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a ton of hard contact this season, especially to right-handed hitters (50%). The Tigers aren’t thought of as a potent offense, but they are actually ranked 12th in the majors in wOBA at home this season. Leonys Martin (.424 xwOBA), Nick Castellanos (.368 xwOBA), and Victor Martinez (.350 xwOBA) have all hit right-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.424	0.382	0.191	42.4%	10.8%	21.1%	35.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.318	0.252	0.203	35.7%	12.4%	24.9%	38.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.368	0.366	0.187	48.3%	4.9%	23.7%	33.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.350	0.343	0.086	42.0%	7.8%	10.4%	39.5%	C	$2,200	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.338	0.275	0.234	34.5%	10.2%	31.3%	41.7%	OF	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.291	0.310	0.153	43.5%	3.5%	31.7%	38.9%	C	$2,100	1B/C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.273	0.199	0.063	35.5%	5.8%	21.5%	39.5%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.279	0.311	0.100	24.9%	4.0%	12.0%	45.1%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.301	0.255	0.168	31.7%	3.8%	28.0%	42.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.327	0.299	0.154	37.6%	7.0%	22.7%	39.3%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 26th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Oakland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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