MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-17 03:21:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Toronto
			Jaime Garcia							Marco Estrada
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-138							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.293	25.0%	5.2%	21.3%	46.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.269	0.265	26.0%	8.6%	24.0%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.317	32.7%	9.2%	18.6%	57.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.319	34.1%	8.7%	23.1%	32.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	3.93	4.67	20.2%	7.7%	56.7%	31.1%	18.6%
	2017	6	5.39	4.33	13.6%	11.7%	47.8%	31.6%	26.3%

We have a small two-game early slate on tap today. If you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the Nationals/Pirates game. If you are playing, this is actually shaping up to be a fun two-game slate. We have some decent pitching options and we have some offenses that we can load up on. The one pitcher that deserves zero consideration is Garcia, who currently owns a 5.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14% in six starts this season. His walks are up and his ground ball rate is down 9%. Ground ball pitchers need to have a decent strikeout rate, or else they just end up getting BABIP’d to death with a bunch of singles and doubles. The Blue Jays’ offense may be short-handed, but they still have three excellent right-handed bats in Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia is my least favorite pitcher in the early slate and can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	33.5%	31.3%	21.1%
	2017	8	3.58	3.12	26.2%	7.4%	37.7%	25.0%	12.1%

Estrada is firmly in play in this two-game slate, but he is my second favorite option behind Danny Salazar. Estrada is a fly-ball pitcher that relies on an above-average strikeout rate and a lot of soft contact. He is one of the best in baseball at inducing lazy fly balls. However, when you are a fly-ball pitcher, you are going to give up home runs and that’s what bit him in his last start against the Rays. The good news is that he is a sizable favorite that should see plenty of run support. The bad news is that he is facing a Braves’ offense that has a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (eighth lowest in the majors). Atlanta also sees a favorable ballpark shift and gets to utilize the DH in this series.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada may have a lower floor than Salazar, but he has plenty of upside and will likely be the lower owned of the two.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense teed off against Mike Bolsinger and the Blue Jays’ bullpen last night, scoring ten runs. I pegged them as one of my favorite offenses in the slate, it was just so easy to pay up for the expensive hitters in a slate that featured no expensive pitching options. Today’s matchup against Marco Estrada isn’t nearly as favorable, but the Braves are still playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a fly-ball pitcher. Freddie Freeman may be the best hitter in baseball against right-handed pitching. He boasts a .429 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate and a 15% walk rate. He has played against ten different teams so far this season and has at least one home run against each of them. Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis offer decent value in the outfield, while Matt Kemp continues to swing a hot bat. Surprisingly enough, Brandon Phillips has the best track record against Estrada: 9-for-25 with two home runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.295	0.117	27.2%	8.5%	13.9%	43.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.325	0.300	0.120	28.5%	3.1%	11.8%	48.2%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.428	0.429	0.315	42.9%	15.5%	21.4%	28.9%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.330	0.346	0.218	36.2%	5.1%	24.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.342	0.365	0.145	33.7%	12.0%	16.6%	40.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.359	0.345	0.135	43.2%	8.9%	27.0%	45.5%	C	$2,700	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.287	0.312	0.135	30.1%	3.2%	16.4%	52.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.322	0.331	0.125	24.9%	13.5%	16.8%	57.6%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.266	0.283	0.075	30.1%	9.9%	25.6%	46.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

We don’t have a lot of choices in a two-game slate, but Jaime Garcia is clearly the most exploitable matchup. In the past, we were hesitant to target hitters against Garcia and his high ground ball rate, but that has dipped to 48% this season, which is much more manageable. If we look at this seasons splits alone, he has allowed a .342 wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The trio of Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak all have a .357+ xwOBA against southpaws and are all elite plays here. Kevin Pillar has really excelled in the lead-off role for the Blue Jays. Even though his advanced statistics suggest some regression against lefties, he’s certainly worth a look in a two game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.329	0.300	0.145	33.6%	3.2%	14.9%	36.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.322	0.302	0.094	27.9%	7.1%	17.9%	41.7%	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.299	0.357	0.157	37.2%	14.1%	19.0%	39.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.380	0.394	0.211	38.8%	4.8%	19.4%	36.5%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.342	0.368	0.211	37.9%	8.7%	15.9%	40.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.273	0.273	0.098	23.7%	2.4%	21.3%	44.3%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.204	0.222	0.036	18.2%	1.7%	22.0%	66.7%	2B	$2,300	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.277	0.270	0.184	42.3%	2.4%	31.7%	36.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.338	0.290	0.110	23.8%	7.8%	22.2%	55.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Darwin Barney

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Cleveland
			Jake Odorizzi							Danny Salazar
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.265	0.278	31.6%	6.6%	25.5%	38.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.301	0.320	35.1%	10.3%	29.0%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.343	34.2%	6.8%	18.4%	34.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.310	31.6%	11.3%	28.3%	48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	33	4.21	3.69	21.5%	7.0%	36.6%	33.7%	16.8%
	2017	6	4.03	2.61	20.3%	5.1%	32.6%	29.9%	16.1%

Odorizzi has a 2.61 ERA this season, but that is aided by a .160 BABIP and a 90% left-on base percentage, both of which are unsustainable. Throughout his career, he has been significantly worse on the road, posting a 4.37 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate and a .331 wOBA allowed. When you compare that to a 3.12 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and a .279 wOBA allowed at home, it’s clear that he doesn’t feel as comfortable pitching on the road. When you add in a matchup against the Indians, he becomes an easy fade in this two game slate. Cleveland takes a lot of walks and they strikeout at a low rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi’s home/road splits are real. We should avoid him in a tough spot against the Indians on the road.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Salazar
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	25	3.86	3.87	27.6%	10.8%	47.8%	33.8%	15.1%
	2017	7	3.32	5.20	32.3%	11.0%	36.0%	30.8%	14.3%

By process of elimination, you have probably figured out who my favorite pitcher in the early slate is by now. If it’s not Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, or Jake Odorizzi, then it has to be Danny Salazar. He struggled a bit in his last outing, but still owns an impressive 3.32 SIERA on the season with a 32% strikeout rate. If you are worried about his 5.20 ERA, take the advice of Aaron Rodgers and R-E-L-A-X. Salazar currently has a .395 BABIP and a 15% HR/FB rate, both of which will improve moving forward. His matchup against the Rays is what I would usually consider boom or bust. They have good power against right-handed pitching, but also have the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball. I’m willing to take on a little risk with a pitcher when his strikeout upside is so high in a matchup like this.

Quick Breakdown: Salazar has a 32% strikeout rate on the season and is facing the most strikeout-happy offense in baseball. Sign me up!

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

In a two-game slate, game theory comes into play, especially in tournaments. We can expect to see Danny Salazar ownership above 50% in most contests. While I still want to play Salazar, this is one of the rare occasions where I may consider taking a single hitter against him in tournaments in order to differentiate my lineup. If that hitter gets a solo shot, it will put you ahead of the field and it won’t hurt your Salazar pick that much because half of the field has him already. Given the fact that Salazar has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison are the three bats that I don’t hate as one-off targets in this early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.345	0.313	0.257	32.1%	6.6%	22.2%	35.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.331	0.321	0.229	36.3%	10.1%	25.1%	45.7%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.355	0.357	0.250	37.0%	6.0%	20.7%	33.2%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.329	0.358	0.217	37.5%	9.6%	22.6%	42.4%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.329	0.302	0.176	30.3%	8.3%	31.3%	41.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.308	0.316	0.175	35.8%	10.9%	28.9%	36.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.307	0.212	44.6%	3.7%	31.3%	38.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.311	0.291	0.140	30.1%	9.7%	18.0%	45.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.247	0.269	0.132	31.2%	6.7%	32.2%	33.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Jake Odorizzi is a reverse-splits pitcher, which isn’t exactly great news for an Indians’ offense that will have six or seven left-handed hitters in their lineup. In the last two seasons, Odorizzi has held lefties to a .278 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate, while allowing a .343 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. The obvious play here is Edwin Encarnacion. He is off to a slow start this season, but his peripheral numbers show that he is still making good contact. He has a spotty track record against Odorizzi, but is underpriced on FanDuel at $3,200. A way to justify playing the lefties here is to go back to Odorizzi’s struggles on the road. Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana all have a .343+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.335	0.343	0.182	38.3%	9.3%	20.1%	37.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.352	0.351	0.169	27.7%	9.3%	12.3%	47.3%	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.332	0.349	0.155	40.7%	7.1%	15.2%	46.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.381	0.405	0.270	38.1%	15.4%	16.2%	36.4%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.365	0.382	0.255	37.8%	11.1%	21.0%	37.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.358	0.329	0.162	25.7%	8.0%	9.9%	38.8%	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.333	0.309	0.166	28.1%	5.1%	16.5%	34.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.208	0.265	0.137	29.9%	4.4%	24.5%	39.7%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.310	0.313	0.111	26.3%	15.2%	27.3%	55.6%	OF	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Pittsburgh
			Stephen Strasburg							Chad Kuhl
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-150							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.260	24.5%	8.0%	29.1%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.406	0.371	38.8%	8.7%	16.0%	37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.305	29.8%	6.5%	28.8%	39.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.278	29.8%	6.8%	19.2%	47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$22,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	24	3.18	3.60	30.6%	7.4%	39.5%	26.6%	21.4%
	2017	7	3.61	3.28	23.7%	6.8%	49.2%	29.0%	23.7%

Over the years, Stephen Strasburg has tilted me more than any other pitcher in baseball. If you pull up his game log over the last few seasons, I’m 99% sure that I have rostered him in every bad start that he has made. Obviously, there have been some good ones mixed in as well, but he’s not one of “my guys.” He has pitched fairly well to start this season, but a 7% dip in his strikeout rate is concerning. He doesn’t seem to have an issue with his velocity and his swinging strike rate is still at 11%, so it could just be a sample size issue. He should fare well tonight against the Pirates in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Pittsburgh’s lineup is not intimidating in the slightest and we know Strasburg has double-digit strikeout upside every time he takes the mound.

Quick Breakdown: I hate to say it, but Strasburg is an elite play in all formats and is the 1B to Yu Darvish 1A.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	7	4.84	5.81	17.9%	10.0%	39.6%	36.4%	13.1%

Chad is not Kuhler than the other side of the pillow. Through seven starts this season, he has a 4.84 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate of 18%. His hard contact rate of 36% isn’t Kuhl as a cucumber and his 13% soft contact rate is not Kuhl beans. If you roster him tonight, you may lose your Kuhl as you see your “Currently Winning” number continue to drop. He struggles against left-handed hitters and the Nationals have two of the best in baseball in Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper.

Quick Breakdown: “You ain’t Kuhl unless you pee your pants.”

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are going to get overlooked tonight because they are playing on the road in Pittsburgh. PNC Park is much friendlier to pitchers than it is to hitters, but we’ve seen a few teams come in here and hang a big number on the Pirates already this season. Chad Kuhl has been dreadful against left-handed hitters, allowing a .371 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are both elite one-off targets and you can roll out the two-man stack as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nationals try to work a couple more lefties into their lineup, potentiall Wilmer Difo and Matt Wieters. If you want to roll out a Nationals’ stack, I will always recommend Trea Turner. His speed/power combination makes him a great play when he’s low-owned, even if the matchup doesn’t look great on paper.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.387	0.340	0.249	33.3%	4.7%	19.7%	42.7%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,300
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.312	0.320	0.147	32.5%	11.3%	24.6%	42.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.387	0.398	0.244	35.7%	19.0%	15.7%	39.1%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.326	0.335	0.195	36.3%	5.5%	23.0%	45.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,200
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.413	0.399	0.249	38.7%	7.0%	9.4%	35.3%	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,100	2B	$9,900
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.338	0.344	0.180	34.8%	8.9%	18.5%	37.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.313	0.323	0.171	32.7%	7.1%	17.9%	37.3%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.270	0.265	0.134	31.9%	5.5%	31.8%	43.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.174	0.191	0.080	10.6%	3.4%	15.5%	73.7%	P	$10,400	P	$11,400	P	$22,200

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw one of the worst matchups on the slate tonight. I talk about this often, but when we have these huge slates, we can afford to be picky. We can gloss over certain games and certain matchups that don’t appeal to us. In the last two seasons, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.332	0.336	0.135	31.9%	7.5%	15.6%	41.8%	SS	$2,500	2B/OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,600
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.296	0.272	0.098	26.7%	3.6%	14.6%	44.0%	3B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.313	0.330	0.159	34.8%	9.3%	21.4%	36.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.330	0.346	0.192	34.0%	9.4%	16.5%	39.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.321	0.321	0.134	32.5%	8.5%	27.8%	59.3%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,600
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.352	0.352	0.168	32.3%	13.1%	16.7%	49.7%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,300
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.308	0.320	0.100	27.8%	12.6%	19.1%	53.5%	C	$2,400	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.285	0.295	0.092	25.3%	8.6%	14.5%	49.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.084	0.156	0.000	23.5%	7.1%	32.1%	78.6%	P	$6,100	P	$5,400	P	$10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Detroit
			Wade Miley							Matt Boyd
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-120							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.310	35.8%	8.4%	21.4%	55.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.303	25.4%	7.4%	14.7%	53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.349	32.8%	8.3%	20.6%	45.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.325	33.5%	8.4%	19.9%	36.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2016	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	33.3%	17.3%
	2017	7	4.25	2.45	27.6%	14.7%	48.9%	33.7%	18.0%

I continue to recommend a strong fade of Miley and he somehow continues to pitch well. I’m not sure when his luck will run out, but mark my words, it is going to run out. His strikeout rate is inflated and he is not going to sustain a left on-base percentage of 88%. His peripheral numbers are nearly identical to where they were last season and he posted a 5.37 ERA in 30 starts. If Miley has treated you well and you want to roll him out against the Tigers in Detroit, be my guest, but I will not be accompanying you on your journey.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not a Miley guy. That includes Wade and Cyrus.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	7	5.04	3.89	17.0%	11.1%	43.4%	37.4%	18.7%

Let me start by saying that I love targeting left-handed pitchers against the Orioles. They strikeout at a high rate and their right-handed hitters really struggle with southpaws. With that said, I really don’t know if I can stomach playing Boyd here. He has not been sharp in his first seven starts this season, posting a 5.04 SIERA with a walk rate (11%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (17%). He has allowed a ton of hard contact (37%) and he isn’t inducing enough ground balls. Even against the Orioles, I just can’t do it.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup is in Boyd’s favor, but he carries more risk than potential reward right now.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The fact that Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, and Jonathan Schoop are three of the worst hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching befuddles me and I don’t use that word lightly. I love the matchup against Matt Boyd, who has allowed a .325 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, but how can you justify playing those three when they all have an xwOBA under .290 against southpaws. We have to trust the numbers in these situations. Instead, I will be looking toward another trio of Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Trey Mancini, who have all shown an ability to hit left-handed pitching in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.352	0.313	0.175	28.3%	6.6%	18.0%	36.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,400
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.251	0.273	0.091	30.1%	6.6%	21.2%	38.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.386	0.408	0.222	41.7%	10.5%	14.6%	39.9%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.315	0.332	0.164	34.3%	11.8%	32.2%	34.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.265	0.285	0.180	35.6%	6.8%	25.5%	42.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.291	0.267	0.158	23.8%	4.9%	23.6%	48.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
7	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.378	0.396	0.316	31.6%	3.4%	32.2%	44.7%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,200	1B	$6,300
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.306	0.321	0.151	38.7%	8.6%	15.3%	47.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.204	0.300	0.094	24.4%	1.8%	21.8%	39.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,500	C	$4,800

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The time is coming for a Wade Miley blowup game and you can be certain that when it happens, I will be on it. His peripheral stats suggest some serious regression and he has a long track record of struggling with right-handed power hitters (.349 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate in the last two seasons). The Tigers just so happen to have a lineup that is loaded with righties that can all mash left-handed pitching. You can make a case for the one through seven hitters here and a full Tigers’ stack is clearly on my radar. Nick Castellanos has had some bad luck against lefties, which is shown by the major difference in his wOBA (.289) and xwOBA (.345). Most DFS players rely on the traditional wOBA stat, which should help keep his ownership low tonight. I could honestly highlight all of these hitters, but the one that really stands out is James McCann, who has a .397 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.375	0.329	0.232	35.1%	9.2%	17.0%	24.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.289	0.345	0.219	39.1%	5.7%	27.4%	32.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.384	0.446	0.199	42.9%	14.8%	20.4%	39.7%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.336	0.322	0.136	34.5%	7.9%	14.7%	39.9%	C	$3,100	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.328	0.339	0.201	37.6%	8.8%	28.8%	37.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
6	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.364	0.399	0.207	45.7%	6.8%	22.0%	42.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.373	0.397	0.310	47.4%	10.1%	28.9%	33.7%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.279	0.273	0.050	26.5%	9.0%	17.9%	58.3%	OF	$2,500	OF/SS	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.306	0.301	0.153	29.1%	5.5%	7.9%	37.5%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Miami
			Dallas Keuchel							Tom Koehler
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-160							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.241	0.274	25.0%	3.3%	23.4%	62.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	0.355	31.9%	13.0%	20.3%	37.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.308	28.6%	7.6%	20.5%	57.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.326	28.6%	7.9%	17.3%	45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$22,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	26	3.77	4.55	20.5%	6.9%	56.7%	29.8%	21.1%
	2017	8	3.11	1.69	22.8%	6.4%	64.4%	21.6%	28.1%

Keuchel is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. In his last outing against New York, I recommended playing Michael Pineda over him with the steep discount. It didn’t pan out, but Keuchel was able to pitch out of a number of jams. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge supporter of Keuchel, just not at this price point. He doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate like Yu Darvish or Stephen Strasburg. I love his high ground ball rate and his high soft contact rate, but I have a hard time a premium for him in a start on the road. The Marlins struggle as a whole against left-handed pitching, but they do have Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton, who both have a .419+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: I expect Keuchel to pitch well tonight against the Marlins, but I’m not paying this price for a pitcher with a slightly above-average strikeout rate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tom Koehler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	33	4.85	4.33	19.0%	10.7%	42.2%	28.6%	21.0%
	2017	7	4.75	5.60	18.3%	9.8%	38.8%	38.3%	10.3%

Koehler doesn’t have a single green or blue box (in the table above) in his pitching statistics for this season. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he hasn’t shown great command, and he has allowed a 38% hard contact rate. To make matters worse, he is facing an Astros’ offense that mashes right-handed pitching. Houston is not only ranked fourth in team wOBA against righties, but they also have the second lowest strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Little upside, massive downside. Koehler should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

It took a little while last night, but the Astros’ offense finally found their groove late in the game and ended up scoring seven runs. This offense is loaded with young talent and the additions of Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran have really bolstered their lineup. Tom Koehler is not particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate, allowing a .355 xwOBA to lefties and a .326 xwOBA to righties. We need to keep an eye on whether or not the roof will be open or closed. The ball carries a lot better with the roof open, so follow this Twitter account that lets us know a few hours before first pitch. If the roof is open, an Astros’ stack becomes very interesting.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.342	0.334	0.175	31.3%	11.1%	23.8%	50.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.372	0.357	0.178	31.1%	9.0%	11.2%	37.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.384	0.369	0.180	31.8%	7.5%	10.0%	43.6%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,800	2B	$9,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.366	0.372	0.195	38.0%	10.1%	21.2%	47.8%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,600
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.333	0.353	0.169	37.3%	11.6%	18.8%	35.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.338	0.295	0.135	27.9%	3.6%	11.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
7	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.331	0.309	0.180	31.4%	7.5%	21.6%	35.6%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
8	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.339		0.122	20.5%	7.2%	9.5%	58.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
9	Dallas Keuchel	LEFT	0.000	0.074	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$10,900	P	$11,800	P	$22,800

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

When the Marlins are facing a left-handed pitcher, there are only two hitters that should be on your radar. Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are absolute monsters when facing southpaws. Ozuna has a .424 xwOBA with a 49% hard contact rate and Stanton has a .419 xwOBA with a 54% hard contact rate. Their matchup against Dallas Keuchel is one of the most difficult ones in the slate, but I see both of these hitters as one-off tournament targets, especially if you are looking for some leverage against Keuchel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.235	0.195	0.046	14.9%	2.7%	13.3%	61.5%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.313	0.299	0.195	27.4%	5.7%	23.6%	41.7%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.302	0.315	0.092	29.2%	5.1%	21.3%	64.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.395	0.424	0.293	49.1%	8.5%	19.6%	36.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.441	0.419	0.383	54.1%	14.4%	26.4%	43.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.300	0.293	0.135	30.0%	7.1%	39.3%	50.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,400
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.332	0.319	0.091	22.6%	5.5%	17.6%	53.2%	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
8	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.225	0.291	0.015	31.0%	6.8%	12.3%	55.4%	2B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,400	IF/OF	$4,800
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.166	0.162	0.000	22.2%	5.0%	50.0%	62.5%	P	$6,200	P	$6,100	P	$12,000

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 16th

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Stackability Rating System:

Atlanta at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Darwin Barney

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

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