MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-02 01:57:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Cleveland
			Doug Fister							Mike Clevinger
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-180							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.348	43.3%	12.0%	20.1%	50.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.351	33.3%	11.4%	24.6%	36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.315	25.4%	7.4%	21.5%	49.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.287	31.6%	11.2%	26.3%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Doug Fister
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	4.44	4.88	21.2%	9.7%	50.6%	32.5%	19.4%
	2018	4	4.41	3.93	19.1%	9.5%	46.6%	41.4%	13.8%

We have another single early game on the schedule. We’ll cover it quickly and then get to the main slate. Fister is a better pitcher than people give him credit for, but he rarely offers enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against Indians, whose projected lineup has a .338 xwOBA and a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many good lefties in this Indians’ lineup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%
	2018	4	4.67	1.75	17.2%	8.1%	46.6%	24.3%	21.6%

Clevinger has a 1.75 ERA this season, but the advanced numbers don’t suggest that he’ll be able to sustain it. In four starts, he has a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. The biggest red flag is his decline in strikeouts. The problem is that there isn’t a clear answer as to why the dip has happened. His velocity is the same as last year and he hasn’t changed his mix of pitches. He does have an intriguing matchup against the Rangers, but there are better options in the full 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: I want to see his strikeout rate come back before targeting Clevinger in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are sizable underdogs on the road. They have a fairly low implied total, but all is not lost. Over the last two seasons, Mike Clevinger has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo both bat from the left side and both boast a .375+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.260	0.198	0.065	24.7%	9.4%	22.8%	49.0%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.382	0.342	0.197	40.3%	11.7%	22.0%	45.8%	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.299	0.323	0.039	24.7%	13.2%	19.0%	36.7%	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.337	0.324	0.180	35.3%	9.4%	20.5%	43.6%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.379	0.475	0.332	45.8%	13.7%	34.2%	30.0%	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT	0.283	0.269	0.122	46.7%	2.4%	26.2%	41.4%	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.223	0.244	0.206	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	33.3%	1B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.334	0.407	0.243	37.7%	9.4%	28.9%	39.4%	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.285	0.214	0.157	34.7%	12.5%	40.6%	45.9%	SS	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Joey Gallo (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians draw an exploitable matchup against Doug Fister, who has allowed a .348 xwOBA, a 43% hard contact rate, and a 12% walk rate to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Indians have plenty of lefties to throw at him — Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Yonder Alonso. This is a rare instance where I would actually consider stacking against Fister.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.358	0.382	0.226	33.2%	8.3%	14.3%	39.1%	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.306	0.296	0.164	32.7%	7.1%	21.0%	33.9%	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.363	0.399	0.279	31.0%	10.1%	10.3%	37.6%	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.369	0.422	0.175	38.1%	9.1%	12.6%	47.5%	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.388	0.333	0.256	36.9%	12.5%	20.4%	34.5%	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.387	0.416	0.232	35.4%	13.5%	21.9%	34.8%	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.278	0.406	0.136	26.4%	7.3%	26.6%	39.3%	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.287	0.305	0.070	41.5%	6.5%	24.7%	60.4%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.302	0.295	0.148	37.9%	7.7%	33.2%	44.2%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Washington
			Chad Kuhl							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-240							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.357	39.5%	11.6%	22.7%	34.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.284	26.7%	8.5%	28.0%	32.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.333	32.6%	8.5%	19.1%	45.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.192	0.204	28.2%	4.9%	43.8%	43.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2017	31	4.79	4.35	20.9%	10.6%	41.9%	36.1%	17.2%
	2018	5	4.12	4.55	20.7%	6.6%	34.5%	33.7%	18.6%

Kuhl has never been a great option in daily fantasy baseball. In five starts this season, he has a mediocre 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a lot of hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters. This Nationals’ lineup isn’t exactly at full strength, but they still have enough firepower to take Kuhl out of consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$12,700	Salary:		$24,900
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%
	2018	6	2.29	1.62	38.0%	6.0%	38.3%	31.7%	25.6%

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I shouldn’t ever have to make an argument for playing him, but I will anyway. In six starts this season, he has a 2.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. The Pirates aren’t a high-strikeout offense, but I typically don’t worry about the matchup as much when it comes to elite pitchers. Scherzer has the ability to dominate every lineup that he faces, especially when he’s at home.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats and right there with Sale as the top overall play on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. The Pirates are a full fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.328	0.239	0.134	28.4%	8.0%	12.3%	49.1%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,900
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.336	0.305	0.176	29.8%	8.7%	14.0%	39.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.330	0.312	0.140	26.0%	7.3%	17.5%	46.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,500
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	0.237	0.198	32.4%	10.6%	20.1%	51.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.334	0.302	0.212	33.8%	5.9%	21.8%	36.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.342	0.402	0.142	33.5%	10.6%	19.5%	46.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.379	0.297	0.169	40.7%	8.9%	16.5%	37.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.299	0.270	0.145	27.5%	9.2%	16.1%	46.6%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,500
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.145	0.152	0.053	24.1%	2.4%	28.6%	66.7%	P	$7,100	P	$5,600	P	$11,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are still missing a few of their best hitters. While a full stack isn’t all that appealing, there are a few viable targets tonight against Chad Kuhl. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .357 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 xwOBA to righties. Bryce Harper and Matt Adams both have tremendous power against righties, while Trea Turner offers stolen base upside and is batting lead-off.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.328	0.348	0.177	29.6%	7.7%	18.5%	51.6%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.314	0.348	0.161	30.4%	4.7%	20.9%	60.4%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,300
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.435	0.408	0.342	36.3%	18.4%	16.6%	37.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,100
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.381	0.405	0.243	41.0%	6.9%	23.9%	45.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,300
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.368	0.423	0.267	39.9%	8.0%	24.6%	35.6%	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,600	1B	$7,200
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.306	0.382	0.123	29.1%	8.4%	18.0%	40.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.294	0.339	0.193	32.9%	8.1%	31.6%	43.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,200
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.271	0.229	0.066	19.9%	8.0%	20.4%	53.2%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,700	2B	$5,700
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.220	0.275	0.000	17.5%	5.5%	16.4%	62.7%	P	$11,500	P	$12,700	P	$24,900

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta			NY Mets
	Mike Soroka				Noah Syndergaard
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	NYM-190				7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.244	0.264	29.6%	3.4%	34.2%	45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.263	25.6%	3.4%	27.7%	63.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	SIERA	ERA	BB%	GB%	SC%
Mike Soroka
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:		Salary:	$4,000	Salary:	$8,000
	Salary Rank:	of 29	Salary Rank:	28 of 29	Salary Rank:	28 of 29

Sean Newcomb was scratched from his start tonight, so Soroka will get his crack at his first major league start. In four Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 1.98 FIP with a strikeout rate of 28%. He’s had a high ground ball rate throughout the minors and appears to have good command. He’s the Braves’ fourth ranked prospect, so he certainly has some upside. With that said, he’s pitching on the road and he received very little notice before making his MLB debut.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach with Soroka.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Noah Syndergaard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$21,200
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	7	2.74	2.97	27.4%	2.4%	57.6%	30.2%	16.3%
	2018	5	2.23	3.29	34.8%	4.5%	50.7%	23.9%	26.9%

Syndergaard has as much raw talent as any pitcher in baseball. He’s been excellent so far this season, posting a 2.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He has great command, a high ground ball rate, and he limits a lot of soft and medium contact. The Braves have hit him well in the past, but I’m always willing to bet on talent, especially at low ownership. With most of the ownership gravitating to Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, Syndergaard makes an excellent leverage play in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer the other aces (Scherzer & Sale) in cash games, but Syndergaard makes a nice leverage play in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Even though the Braves have had some success against Noah Syndergaard in the past, I won’t be targeting their offense in a 14-game slate. In addition to having elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.328	0.342	0.174	30.5%	7.1%	17.5%	38.1%	2B	$4,400	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,000
2	“(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr	RIGHT	0.080	0.335	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.431	0.532	0.276	39.7%	14.9%	17.1%	32.1%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,400
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.346	0.422	0.112	34.3%	11.5%	15.0%	46.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,300
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.342	0.366	0.226	33.8%	5.6%	12.3%	35.3%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	C	$6,700
6	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.297	0.320	0.096	27.4%	9.9%	22.1%	48.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
7	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.311	0.277	0.100	21.2%	13.3%	22.9%	59.4%	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,700	2B	$5,600
8	Sean Newcomb	LEFT	0.074	0.137	0.000	0.0%	5.7%	57.1%	85.7%	P	$7,400	P	$7,600	P	$14,600
9	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.291	0.292	0.103	23.7%	6.1%	14.0%	44.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are facing a rookie pitcher that is making his major league debut. I’m usually willing to stack offenses in these situations, but Mike Soroca isn’t some no-name that the Braves called up to make a spot start. He’s one of their top pitching prospects and he’s been dominant in his four minor league starts this season. With so many unknowns, I’m not sure I want to load up on the Mets’ offense in a 14-game slate. Instead, I will be targeting this lineup for one-offs in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.391	0.346	0.269	39.3%	16.0%	21.7%	37.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.337	0.343	0.205	35.4%	6.4%	13.6%	35.0%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,000	3B	$5,800
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.347	0.374	0.180	37.2%	9.5%	16.3%	40.6%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,000	SS	$7,700
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.354	0.352	0.180	31.6%	15.4%	21.8%	37.1%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,700
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.392	0.268	0.264	40.4%	10.1%	21.1%	32.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,300
6	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.269	0.293	0.109	27.9%	4.4%	18.0%	53.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,700
7	Jose Lobaton	SWITCH	0.337	0.367	0.130	31.8%	11.9%	25.9%	49.4%	C	$2,100	C	$2,400	C	$4,600
8	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.311	0.275	0.063	50.0%	15.0%	45.0%	42.9%	P	$10,600	P	$10,800	P	$21,200
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.253	0.343	0.106	25.6%	2.6%	30.0%	49.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Boston
			Jakob Junis							Chris Sale
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-300							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.336	34.6%	5.9%	17.3%	46.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.239	0.259	19.2%	4.7%	31.5%	42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.358	36.7%	5.6%	20.8%	34.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.250	31.5%	5.2%	37.1%	37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jakob Junis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2017	16	4.49	4.30	19.0%	5.9%	40.1%	36.7%	16.9%
	2018	4	4.11	2.03	19.6%	4.9%	40.5%	31.1%	20.3%

Despite a favorable matchup against the White Sox at home, Junis turned into the bad chalk in his last start. He now has to travel to Boston to take on one of the best offenses in baseball. The Red Sox are always one of the worst teams to target pitchers against. They have power, they draw walks, and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates as a team.

Quick Breakdown: Junis is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,300	Salary:		$12,400	Salary:		$23,900
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	32	2.58	2.90	36.2%	5.1%	38.7%	29.7%	18.5%
	2018	5	2.34	1.86	36.3%	5.3%	36.9%	27.3%	27.3%

This slate is absolutely loaded with elite arms. While you can go a number of different directions, I have Scherzer and Sale in their own tier given their matchups. Of the two, I am giving the slightest of edges to Sale. In five starts this season, he has a 2.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He has great command and he is constantly attacking the strikezone. This bodes well for a matchup against the Royals, who aren’t the most patient or the most potent offense at the plate.

Quick Breakdown: I’m going to have some exposure to a few difference aces tonight, but Sale is my favorite of the bunch.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a significant ballpark boost playing in Fenway Park, but that doesn’t matter when you are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA. I’m not even a fan of the Royals as leverage plays, as this slate is too big to take unnecessary risks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.355	0.318	0.232	35.4%	6.7%	15.2%	37.6%	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
2	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.312	0.452	0.188	31.1%	3.0%	16.1%	41.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,400
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.382	0.415	0.239	41.4%	4.1%	20.3%	32.4%	C	$3,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
4	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.389	0.437	0.228	50.0%	13.4%	26.9%	40.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,500
5	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.262	0.240	0.110	28.9%	5.1%	26.9%	48.1%	1B	$2,500	1B/3B	$2,700	3B	$5,500
6	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.344	0.283	0.019	19.1%	13.3%	19.5%	52.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,700
7	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.254	0.385	0.056	20.5%	12.7%	25.4%	68.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
8	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.341	0.374	0.050	21.7%	10.1%	16.9%	49.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,900
9	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.295	0.375	0.148	32.3%	4.9%	16.0%	40.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox are always in play at home. Fenway Park is one of the best hitter’s parks in all of baseball and Boston’s lineup is loaded. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Jake Junis, who has allowed a .336 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .358 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. With the Red Sox, we are betting more on the talent and the ballpark than we are the matchup. They are a viable stack once again, especially if Mookie Betts is able to return to the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.366	0.520	0.216	38.5%	9.9%	11.9%	38.5%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,900
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.345	0.320	0.178	35.0%	10.5%	16.2%	38.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.367	0.363	0.184	35.6%	8.0%	20.1%	41.0%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.421	0.421	0.340	50.2%	9.3%	27.3%	42.1%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,100
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.295	0.158	0.150	32.1%	8.1%	18.9%	47.0%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$8,900
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.300	0.314	0.190	36.2%	6.9%	22.2%	47.0%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.269	0.265	0.159	25.3%	3.4%	11.8%	52.2%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,600	3B	$7,600
8	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.331	0.387	0.169	35.0%	8.9%	22.2%	44.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,900
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.293	0.247	0.094	25.8%	5.2%	18.6%	47.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,500

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (if active), Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Chase Anderson							Homer Bailey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-100							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.264	0.268	28.6%	7.4%	24.8%	36.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.366	31.3%	11.5%	13.5%	43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.303	33.8%	7.3%	20.9%	41.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.372	0.390	37.0%	7.8%	18.4%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chase Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	2017	25	4.14	2.74	23.4%	7.2%	39.2%	31.7%	19.9%
	2018	5	4.52	3.25	18.9%	8.1%	40.8%	31.2%	24.7%

Anderson has a low ERA, but his peripheral numbers suggest that he’s not going to sustain it. In five starts, he has a 4.52 SIERA with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that relies on a lot of soft contact. Tonight’s matchup against the Reds isn’t the worst on the board, but it doesn’t help that the game is being played in the Great American Ball Park. This is not a place where we want to target fly-ball pitchers, as it is one of the smallest parks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Anderson in a potential shootout.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,500
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%
	2018	5	4.82	3.68	16.3%	8.1%	43.3%	44.6%	15.2%

Bailey is always one of my favorite pitchers to stack against. He has a mediocre ground ball rate, he gives up a lot of hard contact, and he doesn’t fare well against left or right-handed hitters. He also plays in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the National League. He has no fantasy appeal tonight against the Brewers in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Homer in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are playing in a great ballpark and they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. Over the last two seasons, Homer Bailey has allowed a .366 xwOBA to lefties and a .390 xwOBA to righties. He doesn’t have great command and he’s not the best at holding runners. Basically, everything lines up for the Brewers, so a full stack is certainly viable. Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, and Jesus Aguilar are all viable as a stack or as individual plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.334	0.383	0.124	29.6%	9.0%	16.7%	47.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,000
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.371	0.378	0.169	39.3%	13.4%	19.8%	54.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.330	0.380	0.207	35.1%	7.2%	21.5%	50.4%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,300	LF	$8,200
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.374	0.452	0.262	39.6%	11.5%	20.9%	41.1%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,200
5	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.357	0.442	0.240	39.3%	6.3%	28.5%	39.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.303	0.161	0.166	31.0%	6.6%	20.0%	36.4%	C	$2,100	C	$2,500	C	$5,100
7	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.269	0.261	0.121	34.2%	6.2%	30.1%	58.4%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,900
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.286	0.251	0.148	30.9%	5.5%	18.4%	52.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.086	0.072	0.021	8.7%	0.0%	53.1%	66.7%	P	$8,000	P	$7,000	P	$13,700

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are also viable tonight, although they aren’t quite as appealing as a full stack as the Brewers. Their matchup against Chase Anderson doesn’t look great on paper, but playing in this ballpark certainly helps. Over the last two seasons, Anderson has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. I’ll likely end up with less exposure to this offense than the field, but the left-handed bats of Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler are viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.399	0.447	0.190	36.8%	14.8%	18.2%	48.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,700
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.285	0.279	0.071	21.9%	3.3%	13.6%	43.4%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,700
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.438	0.479	0.237	36.4%	18.5%	10.1%	36.9%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,300
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.344	0.342	0.230	37.7%	6.5%	20.4%	39.7%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.360	0.340	0.196	31.3%	12.5%	22.9%	37.7%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,300
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.359	0.423	0.268	39.9%	9.1%	23.5%	44.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.294	0.455	0.204	32.0%	5.5%	27.2%	31.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.334	0.307	0.140	33.9%	10.3%	16.9%	42.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
9	Homer Bailey	RIGHT	0.126	0.022	0.032	13.0%	0.0%	39.5%	81.3%	P	$6,000	P	$4,600	P	$9,500

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 1st

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Joey Gallo (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (if active), Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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