MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-06 02:45:37

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Kyle Hendricks							Steven Brault
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-160							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.309	33.8%	10.1%	22.6%	44.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.294	19.1%	7.7%	7.7%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.308	32.2%	5.7%	19.6%	52.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.413	0.360	42.4%	9.1%	15.9%	37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$18,900
	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2016	30	3.70	2.13	22.8%	5.9%	48.4%	25.8%	25.1%
	2017	19	4.27	3.32	21.0%	7.8%	48.7%	32.9%	21.8%
	L30	6	4.32	2.41	23.0%	9.2%	46.1%	26.2%	21.4%

Hendricks is having another nice season for Chicago, but he typically only finds himself on our radar in slates that lack elite pitching options. He doesn’t have the same type of upside as Stephen Strasburg, Danny Salazar, Jacob deGrom, or Zack Greinke, who are all pitching tonight. Hendricks draws a mediocre matchup against the Pirates. While they have little firepower to speak of, they do have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks isn’t a bad play by any means, but there are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Brault
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29
	2016	7	4.86	4.86	17.5%	10.2%	45.1%	25.4%	17.8%
	2017	0	5.13	5.93	12.9%	8.6%	40.4%	33.3%	16.7%
	L30	0	5.00	6.52	13.5%	7.7%	41.0%	37.5%	17.5%

Brault made seven major league starts a year ago, posting a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 10%. He hasn’t been good out of the bullpen this season and he draws one of the worst matchups in the slate. Not only are the Cubs ranked fourth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, they also have the third highest team wOBA over the last month of play.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog, Brault is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are one of the sneakiest stacks in the slate. Despite a great matchup against Steven Brault, they are going to get overlooked thanks to a mediocre implied run total. Even though PNC Park tends to treat pitchers better than hitters, this is still an exploitable matchup for the Cubs. They have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball since the All-Star break and they have plenty of right-handed hitters to through at the southpaw, Brault.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.254	0.300	0.135	30.3%	10.8%	14.7%	50.7%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
2	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.406	0.365	0.170	31.7%	12.1%	14.0%	44.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.417	0.429	0.231	33.3%	20.9%	15.8%	40.2%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,300	IF/OF	$10,200
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.397	0.395	0.264	34.9%	11.5%	13.4%	45.8%	1B	$5,000	1B	$5,500	1B	$10,800
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.392	0.324	0.291	39.5%	5.1%	25.6%	44.4%	SS	$3,700	2B/SS	$3,900	2B	$7,600
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.304	0.260	0.170	23.7%	5.3%	31.9%	37.9%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,700
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.294	0.256	0.108	23.1%	3.8%	22.6%	44.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.382	0.332	0.318	40.7%	4.3%	37.0%	18.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.073	0.050	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	75.0%	66.7%	P	$9,100	P	$9,800	P	$18,900

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Rene Rivera

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh

The Pirates aren’t an offense that we target often in DFS. They don’t hit many home runs, they don’t hit right-handed pitching well, and their home ballpark isn’t great for offensive production. As a whole, they are an easy fade tonight against Kyle Hendricks, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.344	0.327	0.114	26.6%	6.3%	17.6%	48.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Max Moroff	SWITCH	0.231	0.263	0.120	31.4%	7.1%	28.6%	41.2%	OF	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,200	SS	$4,100
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.332	0.342	0.151	32.4%	10.6%	18.0%	44.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,400
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.362	0.342	0.233	34.7%	11.4%	18.7%	50.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.310	0.334	0.103	31.6%	11.6%	23.2%	56.0%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
6	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.286	0.281	0.101	30.2%	7.0%	19.8%	50.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
7	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.220	0.225	0.140	26.1%	8.0%	42.0%	54.5%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$2,100	2B	$4,200
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.309	0.305	0.144	28.1%	9.4%	15.4%	48.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Steven Brault	LEFT	0.292	0.235	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	P	$5,500	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			CC Sabathia							Jeremy Hellickson
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-105							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.271	10.5%	10.3%	20.7%	61.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.343	34.4%	7.8%	14.2%	30.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.319	31.7%	8.5%	18.4%	48.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.330	29.3%	4.7%	13.9%	38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	50.1%	24.7%	24.0%
	2017	22	4.60	3.71	18.8%	8.8%	50.3%	28.4%	23.5%
	L30	4	4.36	3.27	20.7%	8.7%	48.4%	18.5%	27.7%

After a nice outing that helped me take down a couple of GPPs, I may need to get myself a Sabathia jersey. The days of him being an elite strikeout pitcher are long gone, but he still has plenty to offer. His ERA is well under 4.00 this season and he’s done a terrific job of inducing soft and medium contact. He also has a ground ball rate over 50%, which really helps him in these hitter-friendly ballparks. I’m not crazy about him tonight though, as he takes on an Orioles’ offense that has hit over 60 home runs in their last 35 games.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia isn’t a great pitcher to stack against tonight, but he’s not one that we need to target either.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		22 of 29	Salary Rank:		22 of 29
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	26	5.24	5.15	14.0%	6.1%	35.0%	31.6%	19.5%
	L30	5	4.99	8.23	15.7%	5.8%	36.6%	35.8%	23.2%

Hellickson has not been sharp this season and that includes his last five starts, where he posted a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate of 36%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has historically relied on a decent strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate. Both of those are absent this season, which has led to the high ERA and SIERA. He should be avoided tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson is one of the worst pitching options available tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are without Gary Sanchez (suspension), but they are still one of my favorite stacks of the slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they are fairly cheap compared to some of the other offenses in this slate. On the season, Hellickson has allowed a .343 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He also has a 14% walk rate, so the base paths should be very busy tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.358	0.338	0.201	33.8%	11.5%	18.0%	42.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.351	0.330	0.139	31.9%	13.0%	23.2%	43.2%	1B	$3,700	1B/3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.414	0.419	0.305	43.7%	15.3%	31.9%	35.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,300
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.359	0.286	0.225	26.2%	4.2%	12.0%	38.7%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.337	0.304	0.175	31.4%	3.6%	19.9%	49.0%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.254	0.319	0.129	39.1%	13.3%	28.9%	33.3%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.322	0.338	0.173	29.5%	13.6%	22.3%	37.9%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
8	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.334	0.333	0.152	26.4%	9.7%	13.0%	46.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.261	0.300	0.056	22.5%	5.7%	23.3%	43.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,400	C	$4,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have a high implied run total tonight and have been mashing the ball recently. That’s generally a good sign of a viable stack, but I’m not a big fan of their matchup against CC Sabathia. He has a below-average strikeout rate, but he has still managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Rather than stacking Baltimore, I would rather target Manny Machado as a one-off, who is 17-for-48 with eight extra-base hits against Sabathia in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.343	0.332	0.175	35.3%	8.3%	26.3%	47.1%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,800
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.353	0.386	0.248	46.1%	6.7%	16.1%	43.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,300	3B	$10,200
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.407	0.372	0.308	40.0%	8.3%	25.0%	43.2%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.319	0.324	0.171	33.0%	7.0%	19.0%	41.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,800
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.305	0.320	0.142	32.7%	4.3%	25.5%	50.0%	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
6	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.320	0.274	0.156	29.6%	5.9%	22.1%	42.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.316	0.318	0.121	33.9%	11.8%	39.0%	33.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.424	0.393	0.228	41.7%	4.8%	23.8%	31.7%	C	$3,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
9	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.310	0.287	0.111	30.0%	5.2%	17.2%	29.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Detroit
			Jason Vargas							Anibal Sanchez
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			KC -115							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.320	29.1%	6.9%	13.0%	37.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.310	31.9%	5.7%	16.5%	35.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.316	33.3%	7.1%	18.8%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.415	0.346	41.9%	6.1%	21.6%	39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jason Vargas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29
	2016	3	3.96	2.25	23.4%	6.4%	36.4%	33.3%	15.2%
	2017	26	4.81	3.87	17.6%	7.1%	38.9%	32.4%	18.5%
	L30	5	5.14	7.52	16.5%	9.1%	42.0%	42.1%	18.2%

Vargas has been dreadful in the last few months. Over his last five starts, he has a 5.14 SIERA (7.52 ERA) with a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. The Tigers are a shell of their former selves, but they still have five projected starters with a .334+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: In a game that features a total of 10.0 runs, Vargas is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29
	2016	26	4.39	5.87	20.2%	7.9%	39.6%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	11	4.40	6.95	19.1%	5.9%	37.5%	36.7%	17.1%
	L30	3	4.64	13.50	15.5%	3.5%	38.3%	38.3%	10.6%

I warned people not to buy into the Sanchez hype after he pitched well in his first few starts this season. The numbers suggested regression and it’s not like he’s been relevant in the last few years anyway. He has really struggled in his last three outings, posting a 4.64 SIERA (13.50 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 16%. To make matters worse, he is facing a low-strikeout Royals’ offense in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: In what could easily turn into a shootout, both pitchers in this game should be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals aren’t an offense that we like to stack in DFS based solely on the fact that they don’t hit home runs. They are typically an offense that scores by manufacturing runs, which isn’t great for DFS production. They aren’t my favorite stack on the board, but this is a rare opportunity to load up on the Royals. They draw an exploitable matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.318	0.296	0.165	28.3%	3.3%	14.5%	37.2%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.343	0.328	0.126	31.0%	7.9%	17.2%	45.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.331	0.339	0.128	28.6%	5.9%	11.4%	51.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.391	0.380	0.195	32.9%	11.6%	16.5%	51.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.333	0.330	0.225	37.7%	3.1%	21.0%	32.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.372	0.362	0.297	35.1%	6.4%	16.0%	30.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
7	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.291	0.325	0.231	36.5%	10.3%	33.2%	31.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,800
8	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.334	0.323	0.170	30.3%	9.5%	27.9%	40.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
9	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.237	0.254	0.075	25.4%	1.7%	17.5%	42.8%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Justin Upton is now in Los Angeles (well technically Oakland since the Angels play the A’s tonight), Miguel Cabrera is suspended, and Victor Martinez is hurt. This is certainly a different lineup than the one we’ve become accustomed to in the last few years. Even with the absence of those three bats, this is still an offense that can hit left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup against Jason Vargas, who has been in awful form for nearly two months now. The best part is that the Tigers are dirt cheap. You can stack Detroit and be able to afford one or even two elite pitching options tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.368	0.374	0.242	44.8%	10.7%	10.7%	25.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,400
2	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.187	0.255	0.000	19.4%	6.5%	15.2%	50.0%	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.386	0.391	0.342	45.9%	6.3%	17.2%	41.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
4	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.331	0.343	0.205	43.8%	4.2%	19.3%	40.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.340	0.334	0.271	41.9%	5.9%	33.3%	46.7%	C	$2,100	1B/C	$3,100	C	$6,000
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.428	0.465	0.300	44.6%	8.1%	16.2%	33.8%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.220	0.215	0.148	30.8%	3.4%	48.3%	38.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.296	0.261	0.130	51.2%	5.2%	24.1%	57.5%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.286	0.285	0.085	23.1%	4.6%	5.7%	45.5%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Dixon Machado, Mikie Mahtook, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Zach Davies							Robert Stephenson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-128							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.333	30.6%	9.3%	17.8%	43.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.364	43.3%	16.7%	20.4%	39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.321	26.5%	4.8%	13.5%	55.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.337	33.3%	12.1%	24.1%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,200
	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2016	28	4.06	3.97	19.8%	5.6%	45.5%	33.8%	19.7%
	2017	28	4.73	3.85	15.6%	7.0%	49.4%	28.4%	19.9%
	L30	6	4.65	2.06	14.5%	6.3%	51.2%	27.2%	17.6%

Davies may have a low ERA, but the writing is on the wall. His peripheral stats suggest regression and as we have seen with a ton of pitchers this season, you can’t stay lucky forever. The old expression “it’s better to be lucky than good” may work in the short run, but it does not apply over the course of an entire season. Davies is an easy fade tonight against the Reds in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Davies doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration, especially in this ballpark.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robert Stephenson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2016	8	5.12	6.08	18.2%	11.2%	34.5%	37.9%	17.2%
	2017	6	4.89	5.52	22.6%	13.9%	39.8%	37.2%	12.8%
	L30	3	4.22	2.41	28.6%	13.1%	40.0%	34.0%	10.6%

Stephenson has pitched well in his last three starts, posting a strikeout rate of 29%. At first glance, I figured that the high strikeout rate was unsustainable, but after digging into his numbers, it just might be. He had a 28% strikeout rate in the minors earlier this year and he currently has a swinging strike rate of 12.2% in the majors this season, which is the fifth highest in the slate. I know that he’s an underdog that is playing in a bad ballpark, but the strikeout potential is massive. The Brewers have the highest k-rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Stephenson makes an excellent tournament play tonight on multi-pitcher sites and he come in at low ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Even though I will have a few shares of Robert Stephenson tonight, he still has blowup potential. The plan is to get exposure to both sides of the equation in hopes that we reach one of the extremes (Stephenson either dominates or gets blown up). The sample size is small (six starts), but Stephenson has allowed a .364 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.301	0.273	0.143	36.3%	7.0%	30.7%	56.1%	SS	$3,100	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.360	0.359	0.203	33.2%	9.7%	14.9%	37.2%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.342	0.330	0.214	38.8%	7.9%	21.5%	47.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.384	0.360	0.265	39.9%	10.4%	21.4%	43.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.357	0.331	0.197	36.9%	11.4%	29.8%	46.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,200
6	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.380	0.347	0.286	41.3%	14.8%	27.8%	38.2%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,800
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.327	0.286	0.181	29.8%	6.0%	21.4%	35.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.312	0.276	0.154	28.5%	4.8%	19.3%	51.5%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.184	0.176	0.056	15.8%	5.9%	19.6%	69.2%	P	$8,100	P	$8,300	P	$16,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Ryan Braun (FD), Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

Even though I don’t have any interest in Zach Davies, he isn’t a pitcher that I like to pick on. He has an above-average ground ball rate (49%) and he is very good at limiting hard contact. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 31% hard contact rate. The Reds are always viable at home, but we have 15 games to choose from tonight. In the end, I don’t see any Reds’ hitters making the final cut for my lineups with the exception of Joey Votto as a one-off target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.292	0.253	0.087	15.7%	8.4%	20.3%	46.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.376	0.321	0.219	29.5%	12.6%	16.4%	40.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.434	0.432	0.274	38.1%	19.1%	11.0%	37.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.328	0.294	0.246	33.9%	5.3%	27.2%	30.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.397	0.341	0.277	38.6%	7.2%	20.6%	40.1%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.369	0.349	0.214	31.0%	13.2%	22.0%	39.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.341	0.368	0.270	40.0%	10.2%	22.4%	43.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.330	0.118	33.8%	9.6%	16.4%	44.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Robert Stephenson	RIGHT	0.088	0.090	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	58.3%	33.3%	P	$6,700	P	$6,800	P	$13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Tampa Bay
			Bartolo Colon							Jake Odorizzi
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -138							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.387	0.356	42.2%	6.9%	13.8%	35.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.310	29.2%	9.4%	17.8%	27.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	0.328	30.8%	4.3%	14.0%	49.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.342	42.6%	10.9%	20.1%	31.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2016	33	4.37	3.43	16.2%	4.1%	43.2%	35.4%	16.2%
	2017	22	5.04	6.25	13.9%	5.6%	42.7%	36.3%	18.9%
	L30	6	4.89	3.40	15.8%	5.3%	39.1%	40.7%	15.6%

Colon will have a good outing every now and then, but he’s not a pitcher to trust in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate and he gives up a lot of hard contact. When those hard-hit balls find holes and gaps in the defense, he can give up runs in an instant. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Rays, who have five projected starters with a .217+ ISO and a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Colon in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29
	2016	33	4.21	3.69	21.5%	7.0%	36.6%	33.7%	16.8%
	2017	23	5.18	4.85	19.1%	10.3%	29.3%	36.8%	15.5%
	L30	5	7.06	6.45	14.3%	16.2%	22.2%	32.9%	13.7%

Odorizzi is significantly better at home than he is on the road, but there are so many red flags that he is a tough sell tonight. Let’s start with his recent form. In his last five outings, he has a 7.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%, a walk rate of 16%, and a ground ball rate of 22%. Basically, he is giving up nothing but fly balls, which can be troublesome. On paper, a matchup against a short-handed Twins’ offense looks decent, but they shockingly have the highest team wOBA in baseball over the last month of play.

Quick Breakdown: At this price point, we have three viable pitchers (Rodriguez, Wacha, and Stephenson). There’s no need to take a shot on Odorizzi.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are the hottest offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Something about that just feels wrong typing. Despite missing two of their best hitters, they haven’t skipped a beat. They have a low implied run total tonight, but their matchup against Jake Odorizzi is a decent one. He has been in awful form recently and he has allowed a .342 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. I like the Twins’ offense more than most here, but there are 15 games to choose hitters from tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.332	0.317	0.204	33.4%	9.6%	21.2%	39.8%	2B	$4,600	2B	$5,100	2B	$9,900
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.353	0.391	0.125	40.0%	12.0%	13.6%	49.6%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.316	0.290	0.169	27.0%	8.2%	14.7%	38.9%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.364	0.331	0.238	31.9%	7.2%	18.3%	39.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
5	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.283	0.259	0.154	25.3%	5.8%	30.9%	40.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	CF	$10,000
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.366	0.326	0.234	37.2%	8.9%	16.3%	40.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
7	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.279	0.293	0.136	30.1%	6.4%	19.2%	35.7%	3B	$3,300	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.305	0.324	0.155	37.5%	13.3%	29.7%	40.3%	C	$2,300	C	$2,300	C	$4,500
9	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.327	0.310	0.111	23.0%	11.2%	12.2%	38.9%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Bartolo Colon is a pitcher that I love to stack against. The Rays are an offense that I like to stack when they are facing a low-strikeout right-handed pitcher. This seems like a match made in heaven. Tampa Bay hits the ball hard, they just strikeout more often than most. If we take that out of the equation, in theory, this should be an excellent spot for the Rays. Each of the four lefties (Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, and Corey Dickerson) are in play against Colon, who has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.370	0.288	0.217	34.5%	8.6%	20.6%	45.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.373	0.386	0.299	44.6%	14.2%	23.8%	28.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.332	0.317	0.171	32.9%	5.3%	14.5%	42.4%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.376	0.385	0.301	40.0%	13.8%	23.5%	31.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.368	0.361	0.280	37.3%	12.4%	29.1%	41.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.343	0.322	0.228	36.1%	6.7%	22.7%	38.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.248	0.301	0.144	30.3%	4.2%	19.3%	44.9%	C	$2,400	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
8	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.301	0.320	0.128	34.1%	19.2%	28.3%	50.4%	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,400
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.262	0.276	0.103	29.5%	3.0%	19.4%	49.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 5th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Rene Rivera

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Dixon Machado, Mikie Mahtook, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Ryan Braun (FD), Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Steve Souza, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author