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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-07 02:15:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

What’s up everyone. Before we get into the MLB slate, I wanted to quickly hit on the start of the NFL season. If you haven’t checked it out already, all of our premium content is live. We have upped our content this season and have some of the brightest minds in the industry providing amazing content week in and week out. I also wanted to plug my NFL course that I put a ton of work into. I have taken everything that I have learned in weekly fantasy football and packed it all into one massive course of awesomeness. Check that out here: Notorious’ Blueprint to Weekly Fantasy Football.

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Williams Perez washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -220 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.360 13 32.6% 13.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.269 2 29.1% 17.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.305 4 24.9% 13.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 23 31.6% 23.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Williams Perez
williams-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,100
FPPG: 18.2 FPPG: 8.6
Pitcher Rating: 33.7 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 9 83.4 4.79 4.62 11.3% 6.9% 5.7% 57.8% 26.1% 27.7%
2015 20 93.5 4.87 4.78 14.2% 9.9% 6.1% 50.9% 28.8% 29.4%

Home:—ERA: 4.44 — K%: 14.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away:—ERA: 5.02 — K%: 12.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339

Perez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in the last two seasons, posting close to a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 14%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but they generally doesn’t do a lot of good when you can’t strike hitters out. His high walk rate only adds to the problem. He comes into tonight’s game as one of the largest underdogs in the slate, as he takes on the Nationals in Washington.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,300
FPPG: 29.9 FPPG: 15.4
Pitcher Rating: 92.7 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.2 3.59 4.21 22.9% 5.7% 10.6% 49.3% 26.7% 30.7%
2016 27 98.5 4.05 4.14 22.2% 7.9% 9.6% 46.3% 31.5% 33.6%
2015 31 95.1 3.77 3.79 22.3% 9.1% 9.8% 53.8% 26.6% 28.7%

Home:—ERA: 3.69 — K%: 23.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.301
Away:—ERA: 4.19 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318

I have never felt 100% confident in any lineup that is build around Gonzalez. He has burned so many bridges in the last few seasons that it’s difficult to trust him even in the most favorable of matchups. While it may not sit well with the stomach, Gonzalez is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight. He has good numbers at home throughout his career and he draws a favorable matchup against the Braves, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against left-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have quietly been producing at the plate recently, ranking seventh in team wOBA over the last month of play. Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying their recent hot streak, at least not for tonight’s matchup against Gio Gonzalez. They come into the game with the second lowest run projection in the entire slate. Matt Kemp could be worth a look as a one-off target for tournaments, but the rest of the Braves can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.266 0.056 16.4% 0.452 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.342 0.159 29.7% 0.400 3B $2,400 3B $3,600
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.345 0.164 40.3% 0.520 1B $3,400 1B $5,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.371 0.249 37.1% 0.343 OF $3,100 OF $4,800
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.282 0.065 28.7% 0.273 OF $2,800 OF $2,700
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.337 0.133 38.0% 0.372 C $2,100 C $3,200
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.261 0.000 25.0% 0.218 SS $2,200 SS $2,500
8 Gordon Beckham RIGHT 0.291 0.129 23.9% 0.467 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,800
9 Williams Perez RIGHT 0.033 0.000 0.0% P $5,900 P $4,100
Team Averages — 0.281 0.106 26.6% 0.381 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have been slumping a bit offensively, but a matchup against Williams Perez should help cure their woes at the plate. Washington currently has the third highest implied team total in the slate. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here at home, but give an edge to those that can hit from the left side of the plate. In the last two seasons, Perez has allowed a .360 wOBA and a 32.6% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.362 0.198 33.3% 0.384 OF $4,000 2B/OF $5,300
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.299 0.144 34.3% 0.370 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.377 0.228 36.1% 0.344 2B $3,800 2B $5,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.428 0.289 36.8% 0.366 OF $3,700 OF $5,400
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.328 0.154 36.2% 0.347 3B $3,300 3B $3,900
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.308 0.145 30.2% 0.228 C $3,200 C $3,900
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.284 0.154 32.5% 0.153 1B $3,000 1B $2,900
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.306 0.160 30.5% 0.355 SS $2,600 SS $3,200
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.149 0.028 11.5% 0.000 P $8,700 P $9,300
Team Averages — 0.316 0.167 31.3% 0.283 — — — —

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Pittsburgh
stlouismlb Luke Weaver pittsburghmlb Ryan Vogelsong
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -115 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.470 3 35.0% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.378 17 32.3% 18.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.263 1 25.0% 26.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.296 7 28.5% 17.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 31.5 FPPG: 17.1
Pitcher Rating: 71.7 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 92.5 3.40 3.86 29.2% 7.9% 8.9% 32.1% 34.0% 28.6%
2016 4 92.5 3.40 3.86 29.2% 7.9% 8.9% 32.1% 34.0% 28.6%

Home:—ERA: 1.50 — K%: 29.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278
Away:—ERA: 4.80 — K%: 29.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.363

Weaver had terrific strikeout upside in the minors and so far he has been able to carry that over to the major league level. In his first four career starts, he owns a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 30%. Even though he is pitching on the road tonight, you have to like the upside that he provides relative to his price on DraftKings ($4,700). He makes a lot of sense as a cheap SP2 against the Pirates, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Ryan Vogelsong
ryan-vogelsong-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,900
FPPG: 14.6 FPPG: 7.3
Pitcher Rating: 42.5 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 89.8 5.18 3.86 16.3% 10.6% 6.0% 45.9% 37.6% 22.7%
2016 8 113.6 4.81 3.56 17.6% 10.0% 6.6% 45.8% 34.3% 28.2%
2015 22 105.0 4.54 4.67 18.1% 9.7% 6.3% 44.7% 36.1% 31.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.92 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.288
Away:—ERA: 5.45 — K%: 16.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.365

Vogelsong has one thing going for him tonight – he is pitching at home. Throughout his career, his numbers have been significantly better at home than they have been on the road. The main issue tonight is his matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The risk outweighs the upside, as Vogelsong has a below-average strikeout rate this season.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they are playing on the road in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Their matchup against Ryan Vogelsong is one of the easiest to break down in the slate. He has been tough on right-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .378 wOBA, 17 home runs, and a 32.3% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.393 0.259 43.1% 0.291 2B $3,900 2B/3B $5,000
2 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.316 0.221 34.6% 0.337 3B $3,300 2B/3B $4,900
3 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.336 0.255 42.7% 0.266 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,600
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.336 0.169 35.0% 0.325 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.312 0.104 28.6% 0.424 C $3,000 C $3,800
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.321 0.127 32.6% 0.229 SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,200
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.355 0.280 40.7% 0.407 OF $3,500 OF $4,700
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.324 0.139 29.0% 0.449 2B $2,300 2B $3,300
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.351 0.000 25.0% 0.219 P $7,100 P $4,700
Team Averages — 0.338 0.173 34.6% 0.327 — — — —

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko, Brandon Moss, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. Even though they are facing a rookie that is only making his fifth career start, they are underdogs in this game and they have a low run projection. There is some GPP appeal here, but the Pirates are an easy offense to fade in cash games. Luke Weaver has been sharp in his first stint in the majors.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.292 0.096 25.6% 0.285 2B $2,900 2B $3,900
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.414 0.205 38.9% 0.347 1B $2,500 1B $3,400
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.354 0.182 37.9% 0.360 OF $3,300 OF $4,500
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.333 0.173 33.2% 0.356 OF $3,400 OF $5,300
5 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.350 0.155 32.4% 0.335 OF $3,600 OF $5,100
6 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.138 32.6% 0.243 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,000
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.316 0.074 27.0% 0.243 C $2,800 C $3,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.274 0.085 24.4% 0.312 SS $2,500 SS $3,400
9 Ryan Vogelsong RIGHT 0.126 0.025 12.5% 0.138 P $6,800 P $5,900
Team Averages — 0.309 0.126 29.4% 0.291 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb Aaron Sanchez nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -157 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.331 18 29.3% 17.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.306 4 37.5% 17.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.232 2 23.0% 19.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 5 26.1% 13.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,600
FPPG: 35.4 FPPG: 18.6
Pitcher Rating: 75.1 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 94.0 4.47 3.91 16.0% 8.0% 7.7% 53.3% 24.0% 36.8%
2016 25 98.2 3.84 2.88 20.1% 7.4% 8.0% 56.8% 22.4% 29.2%
2015 11 131.7 4.43 3.22 16.1% 11.6% 7.0% 60.6% 21.6% 21.0%

Home:—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 17.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away:—ERA: 2.95 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281

Sanchez has seen a slow decline in his strikeout rate over the last couple of months. That’s typically not a huge concern, but when you are an extreme ground-ball pitcher, that means more balls are put into play. As we know, a ground ball goes for a hit more often than a fly ball. Given his lack of form recently and the way the Yankees have been swinging their bats, I’m not going to go out of my way to target Sanchez. Gio Gonzalez is the better play tonight, especially in cash games.

Luis Cessa
luis-cessa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,200
FPPG: 16.0 FPPG: 7.8
Pitcher Rating: 52.8 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 91.3 3.87 4.30 17.4% 4.4% 10.8% 53.5% 28.2% 26.8%
2016 3 91.3 4.50 4.17 15.2% 6.0% 10.7% 46.1% 35.7% 30.8%

Home:—ERA: 6.14 — K%: 14.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.346
Away:—ERA: 2.86 — K%: 15.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.294

Cessa is making his fourth career major league start. His numbers don’t jump off the page at us, as he owns a 4.30 ERA with a strikeout rate of 17.4%. He has shown some nice strikeout potential in the minors, but I don’t want to take a chance on him against the Blue Jays. On the season, Toronto is ranked seventh in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a favorable matchup against Luis Cessa, who is still inexperienced at the major league level. They come into the game with the tenth highest run projection in the slate and they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The sample size is small when it comes to Cessa’s splits, but there is merit to targeting both left and right-handed hitters in this matchup. If Devon Travis bats leadoff again tonight, bump him up to an elite play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.377 0.270 36.9% 0.329 OF $3,700 OF $4,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.267 37.8% 0.511 3B $4,100 3B $5,600
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.388 0.286 36.3% 0.341 1B $4,100 1B $4,600
4 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.330 0.201 30.5% 0.398 C $3,400 C $4,300
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.340 0.204 37.8% 0.488 OF $3,500 OF $4,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.177 34.3% 0.266 SS $3,200 SS $4,400
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.301 0.125 25.6% 0.318 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
8 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.288 0.149 32.3% 0.227 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.357 0.183 28.2% 0.252 2B $3,300 2B $4,300
Team Averages — 0.345 0.207 33.3% 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Devon Travis

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Even though Aaron Sanchez hasn’t been in his best form recently, he is not the type of pitcher that we want to target hitters against. He has a slightly above-average strikeout rate, he induces a ton of ground balls, and he limits the hard contact against him. The only plus in this matchup is that Sanchez has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.324 0.134 27.7% 0.301 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.308 0.105 24.6% 0.317 OF $2,900 OF $4,100
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.546 0.448 44.9% 0.495 C $3,900 C $4,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.312 0.148 24.2% 0.277 SS $2,700 SS $3,600
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.299 0.140 26.6% 0.357 2B $2,600 2B $3,500
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.324 0.189 33.5% 0.258 C $2,900 C $3,100
7 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.338 0.252 35.6% 0.277 1B $2,600 1B $2,800
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.308 0.124 30.0% 0.364 3B $2,900 3B $3,700
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.306 0.220 50.0% 0.169 OF $2,600 OF $3,500
Team Averages — 0.341 0.196 33.0% 0.313 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Yovani Gallardo tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -131 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.344 16 24.0% 15.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.263 14 28.9% 26.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 13 28.3% 14.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.334 27 30.7% 17.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 17.7 FPPG: 7.4
Pitcher Rating: 39.7 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 87.2 5.73 6.04 12.4% 11.5% 6.7% 47.1% 34.1% 25.6%
2016 19 91.1 5.56 5.62 14.9% 11.9% 6.4% 43.3% 37.6% 27.7%
2015 33 97.8 4.59 3.42 15.3% 8.6% 6.5% 49.3% 28.7% 25.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 14.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.331
Away:—ERA: 4.72 — K%: 15.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.333

Gallardo is everyone’s favorite punching bag in DFS. He may not be good at baseball, so hopefully he has a good personality. In 19 starts this season, he has a 5.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.9% and a walk rate of 11.9%. While he doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact, the rest of the statistics make him a great target for hitters every time he takes the mound.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,800
FPPG: 30.0 FPPG: 15.9
Pitcher Rating: 76.9 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.4 4.72 2.97 19.5% 7.8% 10.1% 31.1% 51.1% 35.2%
2016 28 101.7 4.18 3.56 22.0% 7.1% 9.7% 36.2% 44.8% 33.0%
2015 28 98.4 3.90 3.35 21.4% 6.6% 10.1% 37.3% 40.6% 27.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.86 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276
Away:—ERA: 4.08 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322

Odorizzi is one of my favorites plays in the entire slate. Compared to Gio Gonzalez, he is going to be vastly under-owned, even though I have them projected as comparable plays. He has been terrific at home in the last two seasons, posting a 2.86 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8%. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Orioles, who have the ninth lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching. I feel comfortable recommending Odorizzi in all league formats and if you don’t trust Gio, he is an easy pivot.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

It’s hard to be high on a pitcher and on the offense that he is facing. The two have a negative correlation. With a lot of exposure to Jake Odorizzi, I will be avoiding the Orioles’ offense. While they are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they have the eighth lowest run projection in the slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.346 0.206 31.9% 0.376 OF $3,600 OF $3,800
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.345 0.252 39.3% 0.319 3B $3,200 1B $3,100
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.251 35.1% 0.413 3B $4,100 3B/SS $4,100
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.352 0.232 34.9% 0.410 OF $3,500 OF $3,900
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.385 0.314 43.6% 0.380 1B $3,600 1B $3,400
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.317 0.165 31.1% 0.327 C $2,700 C $3,300
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.352 0.220 32.8% 0.262 2B $3,200 2B $3,000
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.279 0.126 28.8% 0.217 SS $2,500 SS $2,300
9 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.372 0.117 31.3% 0.265 OF $2,900 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.348 0.209 34.3% 0.330 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been hitting the ball well recently, ranking fourth in team wOBA over the last month of play. They draw one of the top matchups in the slate, as they host Yovani Gallardo and the Orioles. The Rays may have a mediocre run projection, but if I were a betting man, I’d take the over. In the last two seasons, Gallardo has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .321 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.337 0.137 31.0% 0.395 2B $3,700 2B $4,400
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.317 0.174 28.2% 0.289 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.335 0.204 34.0% 0.266 3B $3,800 3B $4,100
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.353 0.232 35.1% 0.245 SS $3,200 1B/SS $4,500
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.309 0.163 32.3% 0.131 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.319 0.187 35.1% 0.443 1B $2,900 1B $3,700
7 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.315 0.206 35.6% 0.368 2B $2,800 2B/OF $4,100
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.344 0.262 34.2% 0.285 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.257 0.091 22.6% 0.390 C $2,100 C $3,000
Team Averages — 0.321 0.184 32.0% 0.312 — — — —

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Houston Cleveland
houstonmlb Brad Peacock clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -160 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.450 1 53.3% 19.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.304 19 27.6% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.208 1 21.1% 20.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.249 21 27.3% 28.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Peacock
brad-peacock-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,800 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 6.6 FPPG: 3.9
Pitcher Rating: 53.9 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 4.01 3.86 25.0% 10.7% 9.8% 33.3% 55.6% 38.9%
2016 0 0.0 4.01 3.86 25.0% 10.7% 9.8% 33.3% 55.6% 38.9%
2015 1 85.0 5.23 5.40 13.6% 9.1% 5.9% 31.3% 37.5% 31.3%

Home:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303

Peacock is making his first start of the season and his third since 2014. In 21 starts in Triple-A, he posted a 4.23 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5%. We know that he is capable of racking up the strikeouts, but he hasn’t been able to turn that into a lot of success at the major league level. Keep your eye on him moving forward, but avoid him tonight against the Indians on the road.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $12,600
FPPG: 40.7 FPPG: 23.0
Pitcher Rating: 99.1 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 105.7 3.56 2.43 27.5% 8.1% 13.3% 45.1% 36.3% 28.2%
2016 27 100.0 3.48 3.09 26.0% 6.3% 12.3% 46.4% 34.1% 28.0%
2015 32 102.3 2.98 3.49 27.7% 5.1% 12.9% 42.4% 35.9% 27.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.90 — K%: 25.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away:—ERA: 3.71 — K%: 28.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.272

Kluber has been in good form for a few months now. On the season, he has a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He dominates hitters from both sides of the plate and he has excellent numbers at home throughout his career. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup tonight against the Astros, who have the third highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. Kluber is the top rated pitcher in the slate, but you have a pay quite a bit to roster him.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the lowest implied team total in the slate tonight. They are playing on the road against one of the best pitchers in baseball. In the last two seasons, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. Avoid the Astros in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.334 0.168 29.4% 0.263 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.326 0.189 31.0% 0.415 3B $2,900 3B $3,800
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.358 0.171 29.5% 0.226 2B $3,300 2B $4,700
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.361 0.206 33.7% 0.297 SS $3,200 SS $4,000
5 Yulieski Gurriel RIGHT 0.376 0.053 17.7% 0.291 3B $3,000 3B $2,200
6 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.324 0.227 32.0% 0.522 C $2,600 C $3,600
7 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.315 0.202 34.5% 0.371 OF $2,600 OF $2,800
8 A.J. Reed LEFT 0.272 0.130 34.4% 0.081 1B $2,300 1B $2,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.270 0.097 24.8% 0.324 OF $2,400 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.326 0.160 29.7% 0.310 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are large favorites tonight at home against Brad Peacock, who is making his first start of the season. The Indians are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and make for a sneaky stack in this matchup. In his career, Peacock has allowed a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.346 0.228 34.7% 0.367 1B $3,600 1B $3,800
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.373 0.185 34.7% 0.313 2B $3,500 2B $4,200
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.353 0.152 27.2% 0.364 SS $3,600 SS $4,100
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.310 0.189 32.9% 0.243 1B $3,300 1B $3,700
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.330 0.142 25.9% 0.348 P $4,000 P $4,000
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.315 0.150 25.2% 0.209 OF $2,700 OF $3,800
7 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.318 0.174 30.1% 0.305 OF $2,700 OF $3,400
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.394 0.269 43.8% 0.233 OF $2,900 OF $3,800
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.293 0.151 26.4% 0.378 C $2,300 C $2,800
Team Averages — 0.337 0.182 31.2% 0.307 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious