MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-25 18:03:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Houston
			Nick Tropeano							Justin Verlander
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-220							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.438	0.401	42.9%	0.0%	12.5%	52.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.303	33.5%	10.1%	29.8%	31.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.402	42.9%	16.7%	25.0%	21.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.270	0.320	33.1%	6.5%	23.6%	34.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Tropeano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30

	2018	2	4.46	3.75	18.8%	8.3%	40.0%	42.9%	8.6%

We have a mixed schedule on tap today. There are four early games, two late afternoon games, and nine evening games. Tropeano will be making his third start of the season and he draws his toughest test to date. He is facing an Astros’ offense that has power, draws walks, and strikes out at a low rate. Tropeano is a massive underdog on the road and an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: This is a tough spot for Tropeano.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$23,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%
	2018	5	3.01	1.10	31.7%	6.5%	29.7%	24.3%	18.9%

Verlander is one of the top pitching options of the early slate. Since being acquired by the Astros last season, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In his five starts this season, he has a 3.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. He has great command and he constantly pounds the strike zone, which gives him strikeout upside even in the most difficult matchups. The Angels have a talented offense, but I’m not overly concerned.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander and Max Scherzer are clearly the top pitching options available in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw one of the worst matchups on the board and consequently, have one of the lowest implied run totals. Since the beginning of last season, Justin Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. He also has an elite strikeout rate and is pitching at home. For the third consecutive day, Mike Trout is viable as a one-off target in tournaments, but the rest of the Angels can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.303	0.324	0.155	34.8%	8.7%	14.3%	34.6%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,300
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.447	0.435	0.349	40.7%	17.0%	18.2%	35.1%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,600	CF	$11,200
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.350	0.348	0.233	39.6%	11.1%	29.7%	36.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.299	0.332	0.168	35.8%	4.8%	14.2%	42.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$7,700
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.316	0.322	0.231	35.8%	10.7%	27.1%	32.9%	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
6	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.375	0.336	0.233	30.7%	10.9%	15.3%	39.1%	SS	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,800	SS	$7,700
7	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.321	0.307	0.140	31.5%	5.1%	9.4%	48.8%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
8	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.311	0.327	0.142	33.6%	10.4%	22.2%	44.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,500
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.274	0.293	0.151	26.2%	2.1%	23.2%	47.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,500	C	$4,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros are off to a slow start this season when you look at their numbers against right-handed pitching, but we don’t need to worry about this team. Take a glance at their projected lineup below — they have eight batters with an xwOBA of at least .320 against righties. If we look at his career splits, Nick Tropeano has allowed a .349 wOBA to lefties and a .314 wOBA to righties. I won’t get carried away with Astros’ exposure here, but there plenty of viable options in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.353	0.365	0.220	36.2%	8.8%	19.4%	50.0%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,000	RF	$8,700
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.399	0.365	0.178	28.4%	8.7%	12.6%	46.8%	2B	$4,400	2B	$5,100	2B	$9,800
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.382	0.387	0.243	37.5%	10.5%	22.0%	45.4%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,200	SS	$8,700
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.374	0.351	0.203	33.3%	9.4%	12.5%	34.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.359	0.333	0.203	33.1%	2.8%	10.1%	45.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
6	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.331	0.341	0.166	33.1%	9.0%	15.8%	40.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,000
7	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.329	0.335	0.194	32.2%	9.6%	16.0%	36.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
8	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.327	0.321	0.171	32.4%	6.9%	18.1%	34.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
9	Derek Fisher	LEFT	0.268	0.304	0.148	43.8%	9.0%	35.9%	50.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,900

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick

Secondary Plays – Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Chicago White Sox
			Felix Hernandez							James Shields
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-140							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.409	31.1%	9.0%	18.5%	46.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.388	0.390	32.4%	13.1%	15.4%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.333	32.4%	6.2%	21.9%	44.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.344	34.2%	8.2%	21.0%	35.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Felix Hernandez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.19	4.36	21.2%	7.1%	46.9%	30.7%	19.1%
	2018	5	4.64	5.06	17.5%	8.8%	41.8%	35.0%	18.8%

Hernandez is on the tail end of his career and it’s evident in his numbers. In five starts this season, he owns a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. His ground ball rate is down and he is allowing significantly more hard contact. While a matchup against the White Sox looks appealing on paper, this game features a close spread and an over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: The search for an SP2 is difficult, but I’d rather target Jeff Samardzija at home against the Nationals.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%
	2018	4	6.02	6.17	10.1%	11.9%	41.5%	33.3%	17.9%

Shields doesn’t have a single blue or green box in his pitching table above, which is not a good sign. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs to both left and right-handed hitters. As an underdog at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he’s an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Shields is the least appealing option of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw the top matchup of the slate and are playing in a good ballpark for run production. Over the last two seasons, James Shields has allowed a .390 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. A Mariners’ stack is certainly viable here, but keep in mind that there is a game in Coors Field that we are going to want some exposure to. If you like BvP, Robinson Cano is 38-for-92 with six home runs, two triples, and nine doubles against Shields in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.325	0.270	0.077	17.1%	4.5%	14.7%	53.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.326	0.294	0.133	24.9%	4.5%	15.2%	56.0%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.372	0.396	0.196	40.1%	8.5%	12.5%	47.6%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.392	0.394	0.282	40.1%	7.0%	22.1%	40.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.322	0.366	0.204	37.6%	9.3%	16.2%	30.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.378	0.348	0.225	38.0%	8.8%	23.6%	40.4%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Vogelbach	LEFT	0.341	0.390	0.148	48.6%	11.3%	30.6%	34.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.346	0.323	0.243	39.7%	8.3%	37.8%	33.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.317	0.305	0.139	28.2%	7.7%	19.8%	43.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Daniel Vogelbach

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are going to fly under the radar in the early slate. Everyone will be looking to target four offenses — the two in Coors Field, the Astros, and the Mariners. Even though Felix Hernandez is a very hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, we’ll be able to target the White Sox at low ownership. Hernandez has allowed a .409 xwOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Yoan Moncada has a 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching and brings plenty of stolen base upside to the table.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.354	0.368	0.221	43.6%	14.4%	33.5%	39.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.322	0.294	0.157	25.8%	6.2%	19.9%	47.7%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.362	0.370	0.239	40.6%	4.7%	16.9%	45.6%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.357	0.314	0.185	28.3%	11.6%	17.9%	37.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.330	0.345	0.204	37.6%	6.8%	26.7%	42.6%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.298	0.314	0.244	42.2%	5.4%	39.4%	40.2%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.269	0.265	0.135	27.2%	3.4%	27.2%	53.4%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Daniel Palka	LEFT								OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.209	0.222	0.092	25.0%	5.7%	37.7%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Nick Delmonico, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego								Colorado
			Tyson Ross							Jon Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-150							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.356	33.6%	12.5%	16.1%	53.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.318	30.2%	6.9%	20.7%	49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.339	30.4%	13.4%	19.2%	42.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.306	26.7%	6.0%	26.8%	44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyson Ross
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2017	10	6.17	7.71	15.1%	15.6%	46.8%	32.3%	14.6%
	2018	4	3.44	2.81	23.5%	6.9%	50.7%	31.4%	21.4%

Ross has turned back the clock to 2015. It’s good to see him pitching again, as he’s gone through a rough stretch over the last couple of years. In four starts this season, he has a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. The ground ball rate is up and he is inducing a lot of soft and medium contact. Unfortunately, we can throw all of that out the window today, as he is facing the Rockies in Coors Field.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ross in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2017	20	3.74	3.67	24.3%	6.5%	48.9%	28.4%	22.7%
	2018	5	4.05	6.75	19.5%	6.5%	42.0%	30.0%	20.0%

Gray has not been sharp so far this season, posting a 4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. He had a rough outing against the Padres at home a couple of weeks ago, but will get another crack at them today. While he would typically be an intriguing option in a slate this size, we have two elite arms on the mound in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Once again, there aren’t many SP2 options available, but I’d rather play Jeff Samardzija in a pitcher’s park.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gray in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Baseball is funny. The Padres scored 13 runs in Coors Field on Monday night and were then shutout in a similarly favorable matchup the next night. Jon Gray is the Rockies’ best pitcher, but the Padres have had some success against him in this ballpark. There are better stacks in the early slate, but Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers, and Carlos Asuaje are all viable targets at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.287	0.296	0.125	24.8%	5.8%	20.1%	41.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,100
2	Franchy Cordero	LEFT	0.330	0.355	0.258	45.6%	6.7%	39.0%	42.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.335	0.325	0.224	38.6%	8.9%	27.0%	37.2%	OF	$3,800	1B/OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.325	0.300	0.159	32.3%	6.8%	20.4%	51.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.322	0.287	0.106	30.8%	8.6%	22.9%	39.7%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,300	2B	$5,600
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.310	0.296	0.132	29.0%	9.3%	19.5%	36.1%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,700
7	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.341	0.305	0.166	31.9%	7.8%	22.8%	45.2%	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$3,400	2B	$6,400
8	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.274	0.254	0.194	31.2%	5.8%	30.4%	36.9%	C	$3,000	C	$3,200	C	$6,700
9	Tyson Ross	RIGHT	0.000	0.022	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$7,200	P	$6,100	P	$8,000

Elite Plays – Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela, Carlos Asuaje

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

Tyson Ross has pitched well this season and he does have the tools needed for Coors Field. He has an above-average strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. With that said, the Rockies should still be considered the top offense to target in the early slate. Since the beginning of last season, Ross has allowed a .356 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .339 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.324	0.333	0.082	28.7%	8.6%	14.2%	55.7%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.425	0.382	0.306	40.8%	10.2%	20.1%	34.9%	OF	$5,200	OF	$5,700	CF	$11,000
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.348	0.343	0.224	35.6%	9.2%	17.5%	36.4%	3B	$5,200	3B	$5,500	3B	$10,700
4	David Dahl	LEFT								OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.286	0.279	0.169	36.3%	7.8%	34.3%	34.2%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,100
6	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.340	0.337	0.238	38.2%	10.0%	29.3%	33.6%	C	$3,200	C	$3,500	C	$6,300
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.281	0.249	0.096	27.2%	6.0%	25.2%	63.6%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
8	Ryan McMahon	LEFT	0.199	0.238	0.021	15.6%	11.1%	29.6%	71.9%	3B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,300	1B	$6,800
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.190	0.170	0.138	23.1%	3.1%	56.3%	63.6%	P	$7,500	P	$6,600	P	$9,100

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Chris Iannetta

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								San Francisco
			Max Scherzer							Jeff Samardzija
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-140							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.283	26.1%	8.7%	28.1%	32.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.335	32.2%	5.0%	25.2%	35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.191	0.201	27.5%	4.5%	43.4%	43.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.274	28.3%	3.2%	22.8%	46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$13,100	Salary:		$24,600
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%
	2018	5	2.21	1.36	37.6%	5.6%	39.7%	27.5%	26.1%

It’s a tough choice for SP1 in the early slate. The way I see it, it’s hard to go wrong with either option. Justin Verlander is pitching at home, but has the tougher matchup. Scherzer is pitching on the road, but in a better ballpark. In five starts this season, Scherzer has a 2.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. The Giants aren’t known as a high-strikeout offense, but they do have five batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: It’s really close between Verlander and Scherzer, but I’m giving the slight edge to Mad Max.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeff Samardzija
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2017	32	3.63	4.42	24.2%	3.8%	41.5%	30.1%	20.7%
	2018	1	6.42	0.00	19.1%	19.1%	15.4%	38.5%	7.7%

Samardzija is an underdog today, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t offer fantasy appeal. He only threw 80 pitches in his season debut, but that number should increase in his second start. He finished the 2017 season with a strikeout rate of 24% and he’s facing a Nationals’ lineup that is missing some key pieces. This game could set up as a pitcher’s duel and I don’t mind pairing the two pitchers in the same lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is a viable SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are the preferred offense to target in this game, but have very little fantasy appeal in the four-game early slate. We have a game in Coors Field and we have the opportunity to target hitters against James Shields. We don’t need to waste our roster spots on the Nationals, who are facing Jeff Samardzija in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Bryce Harper is worth a look as a one-off target, but he’s the only hitter on my radar in this game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.346	0.330	0.178	28.5%	8.0%	18.2%	50.8%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,200
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.353	0.314	0.162	30.3%	4.9%	20.8%	61.7%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.449	0.436	0.345	35.8%	17.8%	16.6%	37.3%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,400	RF	$9,700
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.360	0.380	0.246	40.7%	7.0%	24.0%	45.5%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,500
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.370	0.359	0.261	38.5%	8.2%	24.7%	36.3%	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$2,900	1B	$5,700
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.273	0.308	0.124	29.5%	8.5%	18.2%	41.1%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.321	0.292	0.196	33.5%	7.1%	32.0%	42.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	CF	$6,600
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.281	0.269	0.068	19.1%	7.7%	21.2%	52.6%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,700	2B	$5,400
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.205	0.223	0.000	16.7%	5.7%	17.1%	62.5%	P	$11,500	P	$13,100	P	$24,600

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash)

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

The Giants are an easy fade here. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since the beginning of last season, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.343	0.333	0.164	27.0%	8.4%	8.4%	41.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,600
2	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.379	0.409	0.270	41.7%	16.3%	23.1%	25.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.326	0.338	0.159	34.0%	10.1%	18.5%	43.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300	RF	$7,500
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.340	0.350	0.111	30.5%	9.0%	12.0%	46.9%	C	$2,900	1B/C	$3,700	C	$7,700
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.315	0.315	0.159	35.0%	4.6%	15.8%	43.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,700
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.303	0.319	0.151	34.6%	7.2%	22.0%	47.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,900
7	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.252	0.212	0.140	34.2%	8.1%	30.6%	52.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,600	RF	$4,600
8	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.336	0.303	0.118	28.1%	14.2%	22.0%	44.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	LF	$5,700
9	Jeff Samardzija	RIGHT	0.118	0.159	0.095	17.2%	0.0%	34.1%	55.6%	P	$8,000	P	$7,500	P	$15,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								NY Yankees
			Lance Lynn							Sonny Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.361	31.0%	14.4%	15.3%	45.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.314	25.6%	10.3%	21.7%	52.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.281	29.0%	7.8%	25.1%	43.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.325	30.1%	7.8%	22.3%	52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%
	2018	3	5.40	6.00	27.5%	21.7%	54.3%	42.9%	22.9%

Lynn is not a pitcher that should be on our radar in daily fantasy baseball. While he boasts a 28% strikeout rate in his first three starts, I’m not buying it. Throughout his career, his k-rate has been right around the league average. It doesn’t help that he currently has a 22% walk rate and a 43% hard contact rate. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Yankees, who have one of the most potent offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lynn in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	4.08	3.55	22.6%	8.4%	52.8%	28.0%	16.8%
	2018	4	5.02	8.27	17.4%	12.8%	51.7%	28.8%	20.3%

Gray has not been at his best so far this season, posting a 5.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 13%. While that’s not ideal, I still have more faith in him than I do in Lance Lynn. Gray induces a lot of ground balls and soft contact, he just needs to fix his command. A matchup against the Twins is far from ideal, as they have plenty of power against right-handed pitching and actually draw quite a few walks.

Quick Breakdown: Both offenses are viable here, which means we can avoid both starting pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins see a favorable ballpark bump playing in Yankee Stadium, but their matchup against Sonny Gray is less than appealing. Even though he is off to a shaky start this season, he still has a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA. Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Logan Morrison all stand out as viable tournaments plays, but there are better cash game targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.343	0.330	0.208	32.9%	10.4%	20.1%	38.1%	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.357	0.399	0.126	40.2%	12.5%	13.3%	49.2%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.343	0.346	0.229	45.1%	10.3%	37.9%	39.4%	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.372	0.349	0.261	33.2%	7.2%	17.5%	38.9%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.355	0.374	0.279	39.1%	13.2%	24.9%	33.4%	1B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.331	0.333	0.218	35.3%	6.3%	21.4%	32.3%	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.358	0.333	0.218	36.3%	9.8%	16.3%	41.4%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.469	0.306	0.000	50.0%	9.1%	36.4%	50.0%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.304	0.317	0.141	34.3%	12.0%	29.5%	40.1%	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw an exploitable matchup against Lance Lynn, but it doesn’t set up well for their big power hitters. Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton are all right-handed and Lynn has held righties to a .281 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. His biggest weakness has always been left-handed hitters, allowing a .361 xwOBA during that same time frame. Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are viable in all formats, while the righties are best suited as part of a full Yankees’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.353	0.330	0.180	30.9%	11.3%	18.6%	43.6%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.438	0.443	0.349	43.9%	16.4%	30.2%	35.6%	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.371	0.317	0.251	28.1%	6.5%	10.9%	35.3%	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.377	0.372	0.304	38.2%	10.7%	27.3%	45.5%	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.347	0.377	0.233	35.7%	5.9%	22.5%	43.3%	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	0.350	0.221	30.1%	16.4%	19.5%	42.9%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.315	0.298	0.232	40.0%	6.6%	42.6%	33.3%	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.418	0.395	0.368	48.5%	2.5%	15.0%	45.5%	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT								2B	$2,700	N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 25th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick

Secondary Plays – Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Daniel Vogelbach

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Nick Delmonico, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela, Carlos Asuaje

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Chris Iannetta

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash)

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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