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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-24 02:01:45

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET

Arizona Milwaukee
Article Image Zack Godley Article Image Brent Suter
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.303 24.7% 11.1% 23.1% 62.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.265 0.319 28.9% 7.3% 9.1% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.381 36.4% 9.2% 20.2% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.367 0.352 33.9% 3.9% 20.3% 32.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.67 3.37 26.3% 8.5% 55.3% 32.2% 18.6%
2018 9 4.22 3.78 21.7% 10.2% 51.7% 30.5% 26.0%
L14 3 4.76 4.50 20.0% 11.3% 44.4% 27.3% 27.3%

We have a five-game early slate on tap today. Godley hasn’t been as sharp as last year, but he still owns a 4.22 SIERA with a high ground ball rate and a slightly above-average strikeout rate. While he’s listed as an underdog in this game, this is still a decent matchup. The Brewers’ projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching is thin in the early slate, which puts Godley on my radar as an SP2.

Brent Suter
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.37 3.42 18.8% 6.5% 45.2% 28.9% 23.7%
2018 8 4.32 4.72 17.3% 4.8% 34.4% 32.5% 20.0%
L14 2 3.86 4.11 20.0% 4.6% 39.6% 42.9% 16.3%

Suter has good control, but a below-average strikeout rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has given up more hard contact than he did a year ago. While he’s not the most talented pitcher of the slate, he draws one of the best matchups of the slate. The Diamondbacks have been awful against left-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup for this game has a .293 xwOBA and a 29% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Suter is a decent value play, especially on DraftKings ($4,000).

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and draw a decent matchup against Brent Suter. On the season, he has allowed a .352 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The issue is that Arizona continues to struggle against southpaws. Paul Goldschmidt doesn’t seem like himself this season, but he does own a .438 xwOBA against lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.279 0.306 0.082 33.3% 8.9% 33.9% 60.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
2 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.286 0.231 0.306 30.8% 5.8% 19.2% 38.5% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,500
3 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.335 0.315 0.120 33.3% 9.1% 25.5% 27.8% OF $2,300 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.438 0.306 0.340 46.9% 14.5% 27.3% 31.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 1B $8,100
5 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.283 0.304 0.109 37.5% 7.2% 11.6% 64.3% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 SS $5,400
6 John Ryan Murphy RIGHT 0.402 0.441 0.357 50.0% 0.0% 21.4% 18.2% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Socrates Brito LEFT N/A N/A
8 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.374 0.176 0.088 44.4% 7.9% 21.1% 37.0% 3B $2,100 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.078 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 55.6% 66.7% P $8,500 P $8,000 P $14,900

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Chris Owings

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

Zack Godley has had some serious reverse-splits this season, holding lefties to a .303 xwOBA while allowing a .381 xwOBA to righties. With a 62% ground ball rate against lefties, we can rule out Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw, who both may garner some ownership. The top targets here are Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, and Domingo Santana, but they are secondary options at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.279 0.268 0.085 24.5% 3.3% 16.4% 47.9% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,500
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.402 0.322 0.202 45.2% 11.2% 19.6% 46.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.457 0.434 0.282 41.3% 7.8% 21.1% 23.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.433 0.398 0.328 41.7% 10.9% 19.0% 33.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,400 3B $8,000
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.321 0.328 0.109 40.0% 10.3% 28.4% 54.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,400
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.262 0.333 0.089 31.9% 4.6% 30.6% 64.1% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
7 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.450 0.461 0.467 53.9% 0.0% 18.8% 16.7% SS $2,700 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,700
8 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.234 0.180 0.100 31.3% 1.9% 34.0% 28.1% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.334 0.743 0.333 50.0% 10.0% 30.0% 60.0% P $5,800 P $4,000 P $8,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit Minnesota
Article Image Michael Fulmer Article Image Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.368 35.4% 8.7% 18.3% 48.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.299 33.9% 7.1% 25.0% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.299 33.3% 6.8% 24.3% 47.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.359 42.1% 15.3% 26.0% 48.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 9 4.07 4.35 21.1% 7.8% 47.9% 34.4% 16.6%
L14 3 3.90 7.71 27.1% 11.4% 54.8% 47.6% 11.9%

Fulmer is having a decent season overall. In nine starts, he owns a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 8%. His biggest weakness this season has been left-handed hitters, as he has allowed a .368 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate. His splits do not bode well for a matchup against the Twins, who are projected to have seven lefties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road in a poor matchup, Fulmer is an easy fade.

Kyle Gibson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 9 4.21 3.96 25.6% 12.1% 45.4% 38.6% 18.2%
L14 2 5.28 5.56 21.6% 15.7% 37.5% 40.6% 25.0%

Gibson has shown some strikeout upside this season, but it may not be sustainable. While his swinging strike rate has increased, his fastball velocity and pitch selection are nearly identical to last year. We typically like to target right-handed hitters against the Tigers, but Gibson is a reverse-splits pitcher. He has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. With that said, pitching is thin in this slate and Gibson has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher outside of Verlander.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t have a strong take one way or another. I like Gibson’s strikeout rate, but the matchup doesn’t bode well for his splits.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are a sneaky offense to target in the early slate. They are playing in a slightly hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a reverse-splits pitcher. This bodes well for a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense. I won’t be stacking Detroit in this spot, but Nick Castellanos and John Hicks are viable, but far from core plays. Leonys Martin is also worth a look, even though he bats from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.448 0.457 0.220 39.2% 8.3% 19.3% 29.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,600
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.381 0.365 0.157 47.4% 5.1% 23.5% 34.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
3 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.379 0.371 0.121 48.9% 9.7% 9.7% 37.8% C $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
4 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.364 0.396 0.242 34.1% 8.3% 30.6% 50.0% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,300
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.316 0.393 0.222 51.0% 2.7% 31.1% 36.2% C $2,900 1B/C $3,600 C $7,400
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.348 0.228 0.192 37.5% 2.9% 26.7% 40.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,400
7 Grayson Greiner RIGHT 0.398 0.381 0.077 40.0% 0.0% 23.1% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.252 0.324 0.087 21.5% 3.7% 14.8% 48.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,700
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.325 0.284 0.076 34.7% 6.3% 16.4% 44.9% 2B $2,100 2B $2,600 SS $4,700

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, John Hicks

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins have one of the highest implied run totals of the early slate. They are playing at home in an exploitable matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has allowed a .368 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. The Twins fare much better against right-handed pitching than they do against southpaws, largely because they have so many lefties in their lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.304 0.287 0.167 31.6% 8.8% 19.5% 39.5% 2B $3,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,400
2 Max Kepler LEFT 0.355 0.359 0.164 45.2% 12.0% 13.6% 39.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 RF $6,300
3 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.343 0.433 0.250 36.6% 4.6% 17.7% 35.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.343 0.276 0.250 37.2% 7.4% 22.1% 25.6% 3B $3,600 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,700
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.352 0.339 0.188 36.3% 12.7% 17.8% 35.4% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Jake Cave LEFT 0.937 0.750 0.750 100.0% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
7 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.263 0.242 0.017 41.0% 9.2% 30.8% 42.1% SS $2,100 SS $2,500 SS $4,600
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.226 0.199 0.235 45.5% 5.0% 40.0% 36.4% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,900
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.224 0.178 0.055 28.2% 5.2% 27.6% 42.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Jake Cave

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Kansas City St. Louis
Article Image Jakob Junis Article Image Michael Wacha
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-190 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.322 35.3% 2.8% 16.7% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.330 36.5% 8.3% 23.9% 44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.361 34.9% 7.3% 24.4% 41.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.386 45.7% 11.9% 17.8% 36.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jakob Junis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.49 4.30 19.0% 5.9% 40.1% 36.7% 16.9%
2018 9 4.03 3.51 20.8% 5.2% 39.3% 35.1% 16.7%
L14 2 4.18 4.91 20.4% 6.1% 38.9% 55.6% 13.9%

Junis hasn’t exactly taken that next step forward this season. In nine starts, he has a 4.03 with a mediocre strikeout rate of 21%. He has a below-average ground ball rate and a hard contact rate of 35%. Considering the fact that he has struggled against right-handed hitters, this isn’t the best matchup. The Cardinals have a right-handed heavy lineup and come into the game as large favorites.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Junis in all formats.

Michael Wacha
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $9,300 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.14 4.13 22.5% 7.9% 48.0% 28.0% 20.2%
2018 9 4.42 3.08 21.0% 10.0% 40.8% 41.0% 18.1%
L14 2 3.19 2.25 27.7% 6.4% 41.9% 38.7% 22.6%

Wacha projects to be one of the highest owned pitchers of the early slate. He’s a large favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he draws a nice matchup against the Royals. Even though Kansas City doesn’t strikeout at a high rate, they aren’t great against right-handed pitching. Wacha comes into the game in good form, posting a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% in his last two starts.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha chalk typically doesn’t end well, but he’s one of the best values on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals find themselves in another tough spot. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH, and they have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board. Michael Wacha has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, but I would only use Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez as leverage plays in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.331 0.297 0.072 33.0% 5.8% 13.8% 55.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.313 0.411 0.052 37.9% 9.0% 18.0% 40.4% 2B $3,600 2B $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.462 0.388 0.304 50.5% 8.1% 13.0% 31.3% 3B $3,800 3B $3,800 3B $7,400
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.382 0.342 0.239 50.0% 4.0% 10.7% 31.3% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,200
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.339 0.353 0.127 32.5% 12.4% 21.5% 45.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,400
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.357 0.273 0.159 33.9% 6.7% 18.9% 53.8% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 LF $5,900
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.300 0.240 0.051 31.5% 6.9% 8.5% 43.3% SS $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
8 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.309 0.308 0.061 20.5% 9.1% 18.2% 24.3% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,900
9 Jakob Junis RIGHT P $8,600 P $7,400 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ stack didn’t work out last night. They kept getting hits, but they couldn’t string them together. We shouldn’t let a single bad outing cloud our judgment. They draw another exploitable matchup against Jakob Junis, who has allowed a .322 xwOBA to lefties and a .361 xwOBA to righties this season. Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and Tyler O’Neill are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.390 0.359 0.216 41.0% 15.3% 25.2% 44.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 CF $8,300
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.420 0.415 0.180 47.4% 14.3% 26.3% 26.0% 3B $3,700 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,400
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.440 0.443 0.176 36.2% 8.8% 12.2% 52.6% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.338 0.292 0.075 47.5% 5.0% 23.4% 48.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 LF $6,700
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.311 0.341 0.078 38.9% 10.3% 25.9% 36.1% SS $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,600
6 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.312 0.235 0.070 31.0% 10.2% 28.6% 44.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Yairo Munoz RIGHT 0.242 0.041 0.000 50.0% 16.7% 50.0% 25.0% 3B $2,000 SS $3,100 SS $5,700
8 Francisco Pena RIGHT 0.296 0.285 0.129 31.8% 3.0% 27.3% 50.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.020 0.064 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 35.7% 42.9% P $8,200 P $9,300 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna,

Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

San Francisco Houston
Article Image Jeff Samardzija Article Image Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-260 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.421 0.446 29.6% 15.4% 16.9% 23.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.180 0.201 21.4% 7.1% 41.6% 31.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.294 25.0% 11.0% 16.4% 40.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.218 0.271 26.3% 4.2% 25.9% 28.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.63 4.42 24.2% 3.8% 41.5% 30.1% 20.7%
2018 6 5.62 6.30 16.7% 13.0% 32.6% 27.1% 16.7%
L14 3 5.64 7.16 15.1% 11.0% 34.0% 20.8% 22.6%

Samardzija isn’t right. Whether his age is catching up with him or whether he’s hiding an injury, something is off. In six starts this season, he has a 5.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 13%. He now has to go on the road to face the Astros, who have one of the best offenses in baseball. Houston’s projected lineup has a .344 xwOBA and a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Samardzija in all formats.

Justin Verlander
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,700 Salary: $12,800 Salary: $25,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.05 3.36 25.8% 8.5% 33.5% 34.5% 17.5%
2018 10 2.91 1.05 32.8% 5.5% 29.4% 24.5% 21.3%
L14 2 3.60 0.60 25.0% 5.4% 35.9% 25.6% 28.2%

Verlander is clearly the top pitching option of the slate. He’s going to be extremely popular, but rightly so. The best time to fade the chalk is when there are viable pivots. In this early slate, we have no viable pivots. Verlander is the clear creme of the crop. In ten starts this season, he owns a 2.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a walk rate of 6%. A matchup against the Giants is the icing on the cake. San Francisco’s projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is the top pitcher of the slate and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have the worst matchup on the board. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Justin Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate this season. The Giants are a complete fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.270 0.251 0.125 24.2% 5.0% 29.7% 38.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 LF $5,500
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.383 0.356 0.118 49.4% 14.8% 21.3% 31.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.365 0.432 0.075 39.2% 7.9% 13.9% 49.4% C $2,700 1B/C $3,500 C $6,600
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.472 0.445 0.362 53.3% 13.1% 23.0% 11.8% 1B $4,300 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,200
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.316 0.313 0.159 47.7% 1.7% 23.3% 39.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,100 3B $5,500
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.338 0.403 0.119 44.9% 3.7% 23.1% 36.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.324 0.256 0.211 38.5% 2.6% 30.8% 23.1% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,500
8 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.334 0.392 0.180 48.6% 7.3% 29.1% 54.3% 3B $2,000 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,800
9 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.284 0.296 0.087 23.7% 4.1% 16.3% 59.5% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $2,600 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros’ stack finally paid dividends last night, scoring 11 runs against Andrew Suarez and the Giants. They have an even better matchup today, as they take on the struggling Jeff Samardzija at home. On the season, Samardzija has allowed a .446 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He has been fairly tough on righties, but I’m willing to bet on the talent in this Astros’ lineup, especially since Samardzija has been struggling with his command.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.358 0.326 0.145 33.0% 7.3% 17.2% 52.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.409 0.491 0.156 40.0% 13.9% 11.9% 40.0% 3B $3,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.363 0.375 0.110 33.9% 7.0% 12.0% 44.4% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $9,300
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.371 0.355 0.252 30.1% 10.4% 23.6% 46.2% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $9,200
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.293 0.298 0.152 29.5% 12.2% 24.4% 43.2% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.275 0.275 0.099 28.9% 4.0% 11.1% 53.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
7 J.D. Davis RIGHT 0.307 0.000 7.1% 12.5% 29.2% 35.7% 1B $2,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,500
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.313 0.297 0.160 28.3% 9.4% 18.8% 15.0% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.378 0.378 0.083 30.0% 7.7% 15.4% 50.0% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,500

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

San Diego Washington
Article Image Tyson Ross Article Image Erick Fedde
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.358 38.9% 11.2% 19.6% 49.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.214 0.293 37.8% 8.4% 28.6% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 6.17 7.71 15.1% 15.6% 46.8% 32.3% 14.6%
2018 9 3.96 3.35 24.3% 9.7% 46.2% 38.4% 19.2%
L14 3 4.84 4.00 19.2% 11.5% 44.2% 42.3% 19.2%

Ross has been a roller coaster this season. Right when he started turning doubters into believers, he started struggling again. Overall, he owns a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate 24%. He’ll have his hands full with the Nationals, who are finally starting to get healthy. With Juan Soto in the mix, they now have a number of left-handed hitters to throw at Ross.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road, Ross is a tournament flier at best.

Erick Fedde
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4%

Fedde made three major league starts last season, but had little success. In his eight Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.23 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24%. I typically like to take a wait and see approach in these situations, but a matchup against the Padres in this ballpark is awfully enticing. San Diego’s projected lineup has a .253 xwOBA and a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fedde is a wildcard, but I don’t mind using him in tournaments in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. While they are facing an inexperienced pitcher, they are underdogs on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though this is a small slate, I will be looking elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.304 0.306 0.127 14.9% 12.7% 12.7% 67.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.348 0.351 0.212 32.2% 12.6% 23.0% 55.2% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.261 0.308 0.067 36.7% 6.2% 25.5% 64.3% 2B $2,600 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.394 0.267 0.212 53.7% 12.4% 32.0% 44.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
5 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.278 0.248 0.159 26.7% 7.1% 28.3% 33.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,200
6 Franmil Reyes RIGHT 0.217 0.213 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 62.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 RF $5,800
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.242 0.248 0.035 37.1% 9.9% 21.4% 54.7% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
8 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.253 0.254 0.182 35.0% 10.5% 36.8% 30.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800
9 Tyson Ross RIGHT 0.105 0.193 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 83.3% P $8,000 P $8,200 P $15,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Tyson Ross has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, which hurts the appeal of a full Nationals’ stack. Ross has given up a .358 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are both elite plays in all formats. Trea Turner is also viable thanks to his stolen base upside. Ross has allowed the most stolen bases per inning pitched of any pitcher on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.359 0.409 0.172 39.4% 12.8% 19.6% 56.1% SS $4,600 SS $4,700 IF/OF $8,900
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.484 0.391 0.366 45.2% 22.4% 14.9% 34.5% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $9,800
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.385 0.461 0.189 32.3% 11.9% 10.7% 35.9% 3B $3,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.440 0.367 0.356 42.4% 14.6% 20.4% 31.8% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 LF $6,600
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.261 0.160 0.055 27.0% 9.8% 29.5% 54.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $5,800
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.310 0.291 0.099 16.2% 14.3% 16.3% 53.8% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,700
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.409 0.409 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,700
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT P $5,500 P $6,300 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious