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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 24th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-24 18:25:51

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Diego at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

San Diego NY Mets
sandiegomlb Jarred Cosart nymetsmlb Robert Gsellman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-142 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.331 20.2% 16.9% 15.6% 64.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.299 35.4% 9.5% 26.0% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.380 34.7% 11.7% 12.3% 56.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.334 29.1% 6.6% 14.6% 58.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jarred Cosart
jarred-cosart-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.40 6.00 14.2% 14.6% 60.9% 28.0% 25.9%
2017 3 5.41 2.70 12.3% 12.3% 56.1% 28.6% 21.4%

Cosart has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in the last two seasons. He has a SIERA over 5.40 with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. He induces a lot of ground balls, but that doesn’t do a lot of good when you aren’t striking anyone out. Eventually those ground balls are going to find holes in the infield and turn into base hits. Cosart should not be on your radar tonight in a road start against the Mets.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cosart in all formats.

Robert Gsellman
robert-gsellman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 3.76 2.42 22.7% 8.1% 54.2% 28.4% 18.1%
2017 7 4.17 6.75 16.2% 7.6% 57.0% 34.3% 19.0%

Gsellman is one of the better value plays in the slate tonight. His price is all the way down to $6,500 on FanDue, $6,200 on DraftKings, and $12,300 on FantasyDraft. He showed a lot of promise in his seven starts last season, but has gotten off to a slow start this year. He hasn’t been generating as many swings and misses, but that could be cured with a matchup against the Padres, who have the second highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching. Gsellman is a favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he has a good strikeout matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Gsellman is an elite SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, especially if you are trying to fit Chris Sale.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

There will be some interest in Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, and Ryan Schimpf as one-off targets tonight, but Robert Gsellman has held lefties to a .299 xwOBA and righties to a 29% hard contact rate. He also has a 51%+ ground ball rate to batters from both sides of the plate. This game has a high over/under of 9.0 runs, but I expect most of that to come from the Mets’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.298 0.270 0.146 21.8% 4.2% 21.1% 46.3% OF $3,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.313 0.170 31.4% 7.1% 13.5% 41.4% 3B $2,700 2B $2,800 2B $5,400
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.350 0.328 0.226 34.9% 8.6% 23.6% 43.9% 1B $3,800 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Ryan Schimpf LEFT 0.361 0.341 0.304 35.2% 14.7% 30.7% 19.3% 2B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.300 0.273 0.231 33.7% 3.9% 30.1% 37.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
6 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.231 0.235 0.039 23.8% 3.7% 21.5% 53.2% 2B $2,500 3B/OF $2,800 2B $5,600
7 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.284 0.278 0.216 34.6% 5.7% 29.3% 43.4% C $2,600 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.284 0.267 0.102 20.8% 8.0% 14.3% 50.9% SS $2,700 SS $2,300 SS $4,400
9 Jarred Cosart RIGHT 0.052 0.150 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% P $6,100 P $4,700 P $9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Jarred Cosart is not a good major league pitcher. He has more walks than strikeouts in the last two seasons and has a SIERA over 5.40 during that stretch. He has some serious reverse-splits, which isn’t great for the left-handed heavy Mets’ lineup, but Cosart has still allowed a .331 xwOBA to lefties. The Mets are always an intriguing stack because they have a nice mix of speed and power and they can put runs on the board quickly.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.369 0.367 0.253 43.4% 11.8% 24.2% 35.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.277 0.265 0.120 25.0% 7.6% 17.1% 37.5% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,500
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.369 0.296 41.9% 9.5% 20.4% 35.8% OF $3,900 1B/OF $4,600 RF $9,000
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.323 0.347 0.165 33.5% 9.1% 19.1% 37.6% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
5 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.334 0.331 0.230 36.0% 12.4% 20.0% 34.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.276 0.277 0.117 28.6% 5.9% 15.3% 37.5% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.316 0.359 0.177 35.1% 13.1% 22.9% 34.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.264 0.311 0.102 30.6% 5.5% 25.1% 47.2% C $2,600 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Robert Gsellman RIGHT 0.098 0.126 0.000 38.5% 3.7% 48.1% 50.0% P $6,500 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pittsburgh Atlanta
pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams atlantamlb Julio Teheran
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-122 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.378 0.292 28.6% 7.5% 13.8% 39.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.346 35.2% 10.6% 14.6% 34.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.373 29.0% 10.5% 16.8% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.270 31.0% 2.8% 26.6% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 3 5.12 6.04 14.0% 9.7% 44.8% 27.6% 29.9%

Williams is making his fourth start of the season and the fifth of his major league career. He has also made some appearance out of the bullpen. It hasn’t gone as planned so far, as he currently boasts a 6.63 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The Braves may have lost Freddie Freeman, but they made a great move in acquiring Matt Adams. Williams is an easy fade in this ballpark that has been great to left-handed power hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Williams has more downside than upside tonight against the Braves.

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 3.21 22.0% 5.4% 39.1% 33.1% 17.7%
2017 9 5.27 5.47 16.4% 10.5% 32.3% 32.9% 23.4%

Teheran used to love pitching at home. His numbers in Atlanta were better than they were on the road in basically every stat category you could imagine. Unfortunately, they had to open the beautiful new SunTrust Park and close down Turner Field. The new park does not fit Teheran’s strong suits, as it is a great ballpark for lefties. Teheran’s biggest struggle throughout his career has been left-handed hitters. The Pirates don’t have many lefties in their lineup, but until Teheran can pitch a little better at home, he can be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

When it comes to Julio Teheran, it’s pretty simple – fade the right-handed hitters facing him and load up on the lefties. Since the start of last season, he has alloewd a .346 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. He also gives up a higher walk rate and strikes out fewer lefties. Josh Bell is a tremendous play in this ballpark and is still underpriced across the industry. I don’t mind Adam Frazier and John Jaso as well, but I don’t see them as core plays in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.344 0.334 0.132 32.3% 7.2% 15.5% 43.0% OF $3,300 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.298 0.274 0.103 27.4% 4.0% 14.9% 43.5% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.310 0.331 0.155 34.7% 9.3% 21.3% 36.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.357 0.354 0.192 31.8% 12.9% 16.6% 51.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.320 0.322 0.136 32.5% 8.6% 27.3% 59.6% 3B $2,600 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 John Jaso LEFT 0.339 0.337 0.158 31.4% 10.9% 16.7% 48.0% 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.305 0.321 0.096 28.5% 12.8% 18.8% 52.4% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.284 0.295 0.089 25.3% 8.8% 14.0% 49.8% SS $2,500 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.000 0.066 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 100.0% P $6,400 P $4,800 P $9,600

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adan Frazier, John Jaso

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

My hope is that the Braves’ offense gets overlooked tonight. There are some teams with some very high implied run totals, so hopefully everyone will shift their focus away from Atlanta. I’ve already mentioned that this ballpark is great for left-handed hitters and when you throw in a matchup against Trevor Williams, the Braves find themselves in a great spot. Matt Adams is going to be very popular after his hot start with the Braves, but he’s an excellent value across the board. The rest of the one through six batters in this lineup are also on my radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.311 0.290 0.112 26.3% 8.3% 14.1% 43.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.326 0.304 0.122 28.7% 3.3% 12.1% 48.1% 2B $2,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.341 0.361 0.141 33.3% 11.6% 16.8% 41.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.338 0.351 0.221 37.0% 5.2% 24.2% 39.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.327 0.335 0.200 36.2% 8.2% 26.9% 32.2% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.366 0.345 0.143 42.3% 8.7% 26.5% 43.3% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.335 0.440 0.294 63.6% 5.6% 33.3% 45.5% 3B $2,400 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.274 0.293 0.085 31.4% 10.1% 26.6% 45.2% SS $2,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.161 0.192 0.018 12.0% 0.0% 26.5% 45.9% P $8,200 P $8,200 P $16,000

Elite Plays – Matt Adams, Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

San Francisco Chicago Cubs
sanfranciscomlb Matt Moore cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-190 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.331 37.2% 7.8% 20.6% 40.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.286 26.8% 6.5% 22.1% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.327 32.2% 8.9% 20.8% 37.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.268 28.6% 6.8% 22.4% 50.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.39 4.08 21.2% 8.6% 38.2% 30.8% 15.3%
2017 9 4.64 5.37 19.2% 8.9% 37.0% 42.5% 14.4%

Moore is a pitcher that I don’t target on the road, unless he is facing the Padres in Petco Park. You can say that the strategy is short-sighted, but he has struggled away from San Francisco since joining the Giants. I have no interest in him in a road start against the Cubs, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Moore in all formats.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 48.4% 25.8% 25.1%
2017 8 4.32 3.35 20.2% 9.6% 51.6% 35.9% 21.4%

Joe Maddon loved to pull Kyle Hendricks after 80 pitches in seemingly every start last season, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Hendricks has thrown at least 90 pitches in every start and he has rebounded nicely after a slow start. He gets to pitch in great conditions tonight, as it is expected to be cold (50 degrees or so) with the wind blowing in from left field. The over/under for the game is set at only 7.0 runs and Hendricks is a -190 favorite. The Giants may not strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Chris Sale, Luis Severino, and Kyle Hendricks are my top three pitchers in this slate. All three are viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants do not hit right-handed pitching well and are facing a quality pitcher in a game with bad hitting conditions. It is expected to be cold and the wind is blowing in straight from left field. I would be interested in Brandon Belt if the wind was blowing out, but that’s not the case tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.334 0.338 0.144 27.0% 7.9% 11.8% 48.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.310 0.335 0.151 25.9% 9.6% 7.8% 45.7% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.370 0.388 0.208 37.7% 16.9% 23.0% 26.3% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.371 0.138 34.2% 8.7% 10.7% 50.1% C $3,600 1B/C $3,900 C $7,800
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.326 0.334 0.178 35.0% 9.0% 17.9% 42.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
6 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.253 0.298 0.148 29.8% 10.1% 21.7% 59.6% 3B $2,400 3B/SS $2,900 3B $5,600
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.320 0.288 0.127 26.1% 4.5% 14.2% 51.6% 3B $3,300 3B/OF $3,800 3B $7,500
8 Mac Williamson RIGHT 0.294 0.324 0.117 40.5% 14.3% 25.7% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 RF $5,400
9 Matt Moore LEFT 0.047 0.098 0.000 25.9% 0.0% 37.2% 77.8% P $7,500 P $7,600 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

On paper, this is a really good spot for the Cubs’ offense. Matt Moore struggles on the road, he is a fly-ball pitcher, and the Cubs mash left-handed pitching. I would typically be all over a Cubs’ stack in tournaments and would be looking at the likes of Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras in cash games. However, with the wind blowing in straight from left field and with the the low over/under, I find myself looking elsewhere in this ten game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.316 0.162 29.7% 12.7% 18.5% 55.4% OF $3,300 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
2 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.407 0.286 25.0% 7.9% 13.2% 45.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 CF $5,600
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.464 0.452 0.362 41.3% 15.9% 18.9% 30.1% 3B $4,300 3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.353 0.337 0.197 24.9% 9.9% 12.7% 44.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.415 0.314 0.333 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.360 0.325 0.179 28.9% 6.6% 18.2% 57.3% C $3,200 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.339 0.336 0.234 30.2% 13.0% 22.5% 36.8% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.123 0.140 0.000 8.3% 4.5% 40.9% 44.4% P $9,100 P $8,500 P $16,500
9 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.337 0.312 0.172 31.2% 8.6% 20.6% 44.1% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,900 2B $7,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Detroit Houston
detroitmlb Daniel Norris houstonmlb Charlie Morton
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.307 33.3% 10.6% 30.1% 35.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.325 36.1% 9.8% 28.7% 48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.346 39.7% 7.9% 19.2% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.328 31.7% 9.1% 24.0% 55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 3.94 3.38 23.5% 7.3% 38.3% 33.0% 12.4%
2017 8 4.73 4.81 19.3% 10.4% 41.6% 46.4% 15.0%

Norris has more talent than his numbers would lead you to believe, but the current form is obviously a big issue. In eight starts, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 46%. He is a huge underdog tonight against the Astros, who no longer strikeout at a high rate against left-handed pitching. The time will come to roster Norris, but that time is not tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Norris in all formats.

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 3.56 4.15 26.8% 11.3% 62.8% 20.5% 15.9%
2017 9 3.60 4.26 26.1% 8.9% 48.9% 37.9% 15.0%

If you have read the Grind Down this season, then you are aware of my affinity for Mr. Morton. He has always been a ground ball pitcher and now that he’s found a way to strike batters out at a 26%+ clip, he has turned into a very good pitcher. The biggest change for Morton has been his velocity. His fastball on average is five MPH faster this season than it has been in each of the last three years. When you are throwing 96+ MPH, it does so much for your off-speed pitches. I’m a little concerned about his matchup against the Tigers, since he has had reverse-splits in the last couple of season, but I will still be loading up on Morton in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: There are safer options in cash games, but Morton is an excellent GPP play once again.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

In DFS, I try to stay away from high strikeout pitchers and from high ground ball pitchers when I’m looking at offenses. Charlie Morton has a 26% strikeout rate and has always had an above-average strikeout rate. The Tigers hit right-handed pitching well, but they are deep tournament plays tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.327 0.169 34.7% 7.2% 16.1% 33.6% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.355 0.398 0.194 40.0% 7.4% 24.7% 33.3% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.389 0.455 0.249 42.1% 9.7% 17.3% 41.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.344 0.388 0.180 41.7% 8.4% 14.4% 37.4% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.406 0.411 0.260 40.5% 11.5% 25.3% 42.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.349 0.232 38.9% 9.5% 29.1% 39.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.315 0.311 0.164 35.1% 9.3% 26.6% 33.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,200
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.230 0.270 0.083 31.3% 5.8% 28.4% 42.4% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.260 0.255 0.065 17.1% 4.9% 12.4% 54.7% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate and for good reason. They are facing a pitcher that has a 10% walk rate and a 46% hard contact rate this season. Norris has always struggled against righties, allowing a .346 xwOBA in the last two years. The Astros will throw nine right-handed batters at him tonight and a full stack is firmly in play. The one through five batters are all viable cash game targets as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.389 0.404 0.285 41.2% 12.2% 22.4% 45.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
2 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.381 0.349 0.213 40.0% 5.4% 19.7% 32.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.374 0.365 0.202 35.4% 11.1% 14.2% 44.4% 2B $4,100 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.308 0.370 0.126 38.5% 13.7% 18.9% 49.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.367 0.359 0.259 32.1% 8.3% 18.2% 37.9% C $3,200 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.201 0.256 0.068 33.3% 1.4% 9.5% 47.0% 1B $2,500 1B $2,700 1B $5,200
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.322 0.277 0.197 28.3% 5.1% 25.7% 49.3% 1B $3,200 3B/OF $3,800 1B $7,500
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.307 0.295 0.129 30.8% 9.3% 22.7% 30.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.306 0.292 0.160 29.4% 8.2% 28.1% 41.7% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET

St. Louis LA Dodgers
stlouismlb Mike Leake ladodgersmlb Rich Hill
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-149 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.328 29.0% 5.5% 14.9% 55.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.263 24.1% 4.7% 18.7% 55.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.313 30.7% 2.9% 18.4% 51.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.255 0.271 30.4% 8.6% 31.7% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
mike-leake-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.92 4.69 16.5% 4.0% 53.7% 30.6% 17.3%
2017 8 3.89 2.03 17.5% 4.7% 53.7% 27.4% 18.3%

I seem to say this every time Leake is on the mound, but he’s a better pitcher in real baseball than he is in fantasy baseball. He induces a lot of ground balls and a lot of soft and medium contact. He has good command and rarely gives up a big outing to his opponent. Unfortunately, his 17% strikeout rate doesn’t translate into a lot of success in DFS. He is an easy fade tonight against the Dodgers, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Leake in all formats.

Rich Hill
rich-hill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 45.3% 28.3% 22.3%
2017 3 4.04 2.77 24.5% 9.4% 40.6% 32.4% 17.7%

When Hill doesn’t have a blister, he is one of the most deadly left-handed pitchers in baseball. His curveball is basically unhittable and is why he has such a high strikeout rate. I expect him to pitch well tonight at home against the Cardinals, but there are reasons to be careful with our exposure. He has been injury prone throughout his career and has yet to throw more than 82 pitches in a game this season. The upside is there, but there are enough options that I don’t see him as a core play in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Hill has massive strikeout potential, but you never know how many pitches he is going to throw.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate and draw an awful matchup against Rich Hill, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. I’ll take a hard pass on St. Louis tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.371 0.365 0.188 36.4% 13.8% 13.8% 50.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.393 0.365 0.241 29.9% 12.4% 16.7% 35.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.341 0.362 0.179 32.4% 12.7% 20.2% 34.5% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.329 0.342 0.190 32.8% 8.2% 18.6% 34.3% 3B $3,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.342 0.349 0.130 31.4% 7.3% 12.9% 47.5% C $3,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.220 0.263 0.112 23.9% 5.2% 24.0% 38.8% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.302 0.287 0.122 27.2% 9.2% 14.1% 47.2% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.324 0.329 0.224 38.1% 9.8% 25.6% 29.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.213 0.250 0.000 30.8% 8.3% 37.5% 50.0% P $8,600 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are usually in play against right-handed hitters, but I’m bearish on them tonight in a matchup against Mike Leake. In addition to an elite ground ball rate, Leake has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Corey Seager and Yasmani Grandal are viable one-off targets, but I plan to have less exposure to the Dodgers than the field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.331 0.339 0.167 35.4% 8.5% 23.2% 42.4% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.401 0.408 0.217 41.0% 9.7% 17.0% 44.7% SS $3,600 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
3 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.415 0.354 0.373 43.5% 9.5% 28.4% 31.8% OF $3,800 1B/OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
4 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.363 0.351 0.255 39.9% 11.4% 25.6% 43.6% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,200
5 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.353 0.348 0.171 36.1% 9.9% 19.1% 43.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.348 0.316 0.191 29.0% 13.8% 22.9% 55.2% 3B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Chase Utley LEFT 0.325 0.328 0.143 38.8% 8.1% 18.0% 47.6% 2B $2,300 1B/2B $3,200 2B $6,400
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.334 0.334 0.166 34.0% 8.2% 20.0% 48.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.056 0.078 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 61.5% 100.0% P $8,700 P $8,900 P $17,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious