The Relief Brief: Friday, September 30th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-10-01 02:40:42

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Friday night brings us a full slate. Our final slate of the year is an interesting one. We have a number of teams who are setting up their rotation, and thus have minor leaguers or bullpen arms making spot starts, while we have a few other teams who are still scrambling to claim a wild card spot. I’ll do my best to highlight the important spots for us tonight.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Jake Buchanan has thrown a grand total of one major league inning this season, while making 22 minor league starts. Buchanan’s numbers were not impressive in AAA this season as he posted a 4.34 ERA and 105 strikeouts through 141 innings pitched. Furthermore, Buchanan has not started a game of any sort in well over a month. Expecting a lengthy outing from the youngster tonight is probably folly. This should be a heavy bullpen game, with low leverage arms throughout as the Cubs have absolutely nothing to play for and everything to prepare for.

My fellow NBA DFS’ers will be surprised to hear that Josh Smith aka ‘Smoove” is starting for the Reds tonight. Wait, what? Wrong Josh Smith you say? My mistake. I was getting ready to tell you all to stay far away from this game, but if it’s a different Josh Smith, we’ll approach it differently. Had it been Smoove, we could’ve expected him to pitch from second base rather than the pitching mound, just to increase the difficulty for no apparent reason. I digress. The baseball Josh Smith has made one start in the major leagues this season and went for just three innings in that outing. His long outing in the big leagues this season is just four innings. This should be another case of a bullpen game throughout featuring low-leverage arms throughout (as that is all that the Reds possess in their bullpen anyways). The basketball Josh Smith would probably get in on some Cubs bats tonight (even if they throw out a AAA lineup again), and you probably should too.

The Tigers sit 1.5 games out of a wild card spot and will send Daniel Norris to the hill against the Braves tonight. The Braves meanwhile have nothing to play for, but are surging offensively as they close out the season with optimism for the future. Norris has made 12 starts and has exceeded six innings on just one occasion. So why am I writing about this game/situation at all? The Tigers are desperate and are likely to approach this game like a playoff game – Norris should have a short leash should he run into any trouble. One last note here – The Tigers bullpen currently owns a terrible 4.29 SIERA over the last month of play.

Yu Darvish will make his final start of the regular season tonight, which should set up perfectly for Yu to pitch in the opening game of the ALDS next Thursday. With that said, the Rangers have no need to push Darvish tonight, and will likely pull him after a typical amount of work, or perhaps slightly less (I’m guessing somewhere just south of 100 pitches). We ought to see low-leverage arms the rest of the way after that, which could make this a sneaky spot to attack.

I was going to try to make an NHL joke about Ryan Suter being akin to Brent Suter, but even if I did, no one would’ve gotten the reference. Now I’ve not only failed to make a joke, but I’ve pointlessly made the reference. Soooo, Brent Suter takes the hill tonight for the hapless Brewers in the first game of the final Coors Field series of the season. Suter made one start for the Brewers this season and went just 4.1 innings, while making 15 other starts in AAA with modest numbers. The big issue here is that Suter hasn’t started a game at any level since the 19th of August. His longest outing in September was 2.0 innings. I’m not expecting much from Suter tonight in the way of innings or success, so we should see plenty of the Brew Crew bullpen, and they own the eighth worst bullpen SIERA in baseball this year.

The Cleveland Indians are another team with nothing to play for, and thus are sending Ryan Merritt to the mound in tonight’s matchup against the Royals. Merritt represents another minor leaguer with modest to underwhelming numbers who will be highly unlikely to pitch beyond the fifth inning. Beyond that, we should see low-leverage arms for the Indians as they coast into the postseason. The Royals also have nothing to play for, but on the opposite end of the spectrum. Narrative street might indicate that the Royals will come swinging (metaphorically and literally) while trying to prove a point, and I don’t mind taking a KC bat or two, though that is rarely something that you’ll feel great about.

Oh! Hey, look! It’s another minor league pitcher who will have the task of eating up a few innings at the beginning of a ballgame! It’s Tyler Glasnow! Glasnow will be facing the desperate-to-win Cardinals, and he is highly unlikely to exceed five innings (as he has not done so at any level since the first of September). This should be another bullpen heavy game, but while Pittsburgh has nothing to play for, they also don’t have any reason not to use their best arms out of the ‘pen. The Pittsburgh ‘pen has been solid over the second half of the season, and while they’ll be susceptible in long relief, they should be strong in the late innings.

Daniel Wright actually has a lot of experience when compared with some of the other pitchers who are starting today’s games. Wright has made six starts on the season, and has reached the six-inning mark just once. The Angels also have nothing to play for, but they will field their best lineup and throw their best relievers against the Astros (who also have nothing to play for). All in all, the Angels bullpen is pretty bad, and the Astros have some good weapons. This could be a good under the radar spot to attack. Most people will naturally pay more attention to the high impact games, but this “meaningless” game has some sneaky appeal. The Angels ‘pen owns the third worst SIERA in baseball this season.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

A day without bullpen personnel movement is like a day without sunshine.

3. Other Notes And Insights

With baseball season winding down, I just wanted to thank all of you for reading! I hope this article has helped you over the last two months of the season. I’ll see you on Twitter @collinman005!

Legend