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MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-03 20:15:40

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Washington
cincinnatimlb Anthony DeSclafani washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-180 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.410 0.416 48.2% 3.86 18.0% 31.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.233 0.245 24.1% 0.37 30.4% 46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.272 48.7% 1.33 24.6% 46.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.339 31.7% 0.90 18.5% 50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony DeSclafani
anthony-desclafani-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 10 4.24 5.47 21.3% 7.6% 38.7% 48.4% 13.8% 93.1 8.4%
L14 2 3.31 6.23 32.5% 10.0% 36.4% 56.5% 26.1% 93.0 12.6%

We have 14 games on the schedule tonight. I left out the early game since there was only a single-game and most will be focusing on the main slate. How about that crazy slate last night? I can’t remember another night with that many home runs. There was one point where I didn’t know if my Rangers’ stack that included Steve Pearce was even going to cash in tournaments (luckily it did). We kick off today’s Grind Down with the Reds and Nationals in what could be a lopsided game. Desclafani isn’t as bad as his 5.47 ERA would lead you to believe, but his troubles against left-handed hitters will be magnified in this matchup. Washington has six five lefties in their lineup with at least a .380 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: We start tonight’s slate off with an easy fade of Desclafani.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.7% 89.9 8.8%
2018 21 4.63 3.78 20.7% 11.5% 50.2% 30.4% 17.6% 89.6 9.3%
L14 2 5.93 4.26 16.7% 16.7% 51.4% 33.3% 13.9% 90.2 7.2%

Gonzalez has been a routine fade of mine this season. I’ve learned my lesson over the years. It’s not that he doesn’t have a decent skill set (21% strikeout rate with a 50% ground ball rate), it’s that he tries to nibble around the corners of the plate too often. This leads to long at-bats and a high walk rate (12%). He has only pitched more than six innings one time in his last nine starts. At this price point, six innings should be enough to reach value, but that’s assuming he pitches well against a Reds’ offense that hits left-handed pitching well and strikes out at a low rate.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t fall for the cheap salary trap. Join me in my continuous fade of Gio.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against what I would call a slightly above-average pitcher. While I won’t have any shares of Gio Gonzalez, I’m not going to stack the Reds against him in a 14-game slate. However, despite a 51% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season, he has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. Eugenio Suarez has been one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws this season, boasting a .488 xwOBA, a .337 ISO, and a 56% hard contact rate. Even at his hefty price point, he’s on my radar as a one-off for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.279 0.077 24.1% 3.3% 5.7% 40.7% SS $2,600 SS $3,700 SS $7,400
2 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.264 0.250 33.3% 7.7% 23.1% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 RF $7,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.375 0.103 41.1% 15.0% 20.3% 42.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $9,000
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.488 0.337 56.3% 15.9% 16.8% 38.0% 3B $3,800 3B $5,000 3B $9,700
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.314 0.183 44.9% 4.1% 23.6% 36.8% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.329 0.143 39.1% 12.2% 24.3% 55.6% C $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,700
7 Brandon Dixon RIGHT 0.174 0.000 27.3% 5.6% 33.3% 60.0% 2B $2,100 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,800
8 Anthony DeSclafani RIGHT 0.533 1.000 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% P $6,200 P $6,300 P $12,800
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.254 0.112 27.6% 8.2% 32.0% 26.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.334 0.245 40.0% 8.0% 19.9% 40.7%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals looked like they would be the highest scoring stack early last night, but then were trounced by the Rangers and Dodgers. I may end up going right back to the well tonight, as they have the perfect lineup construction to take advantage of Anthony Desclafani struggles against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .416 xwOBA, a 48% hard contact rate, and a massive 3.86 home runs per nine innings to batters from the left side of the plate. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, and Daniel Murphy are all viable in this matchup. Trea Turner shouldn’t be left out of your Nationals’ stacks, as he has been swinging a hot bat and has as much stolen base upside as any player in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.400 0.119 43.9% 10.9% 13.5% 45.1% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.323 0.146 32.4% 8.1% 21.3% 51.5% SS $4,100 SS $5,200 IF/OF $9,600
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.386 0.206 37.1% 9.4% 14.7% 36.3% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.390 0.272 42.7% 18.7% 26.6% 36.5% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $9,500
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.382 0.236 35.4% 16.1% 17.7% 49.6% OF $3,800 OF $5,000 LF $10,000
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.400 0.295 39.2% 9.7% 19.4% 31.5% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,300
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.388 0.177 19.5% 8.5% 9.4% 28.7% 2B $3,300 1B/2B $4,300 2B $8,100
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.278 0.101 28.0% 9.9% 14.9% 40.5% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.094 0.037 15.4% 0.0% 53.6% 60.0% P $7,200 P $7,000 P $13,500
Team Averages 0.338 0.177 32.6% 10.1% 21.2% 42.2%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
miamimlb Trevor Richards philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.290 33.3% 0.23 23.6% 32.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.309 32.6% 1.69 25.3% 38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.372 0.376 49.6% 0.97 20.2% 43.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.280 30.9% 0.50 28.9% 39.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Richards
trevor-richards-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 15 4.53 4.06 21.9% 10.5% 38.7% 42.1% 15.3% 91.0 9.2%
L14 2 3.05 0.71 30.4% 6.5% 48.1% 39.3% 7.1% 90.7 10.9%

Richards has scored at least 21 DraftKings points in three straight starts, so he comes into tonight’s game in good form. Overall, his numbers are mediocre as a whole — 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 11%. The statistic that scares me the most is his hard contact rate of 42%. In this ballpark, you want to keep the ball on the ground and in the catcher’s mitt. If you can’t do those two things, you tend to give up a lot of runs. As a large underdog on the road, we shouldn’t have to look hard to find better options.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richards in both cash games and tournaments.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2% 93.9 9.1%
2018 20 3.80 4.02 27.1% 9.3% 38.7% 31.8% 16.6% 94.0 11.5%
L14 2 4.73 1.38 21.8% 12.7% 45.2% 28.6% 11.4% 93.9 10.5%

Velasquez has been hit or miss for most of the season, but he always brings strikeout upside to the table. In his 20 starts, he has a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Sure, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but the Marlins aren’t an offense that is going to hit many home runs. Velasquez has been tough on right-handed hitters this season (.280 xwOBA with a 29% strikeout rate) and he’ll likely face at least five tonight against Miami. Not to mention the fact that the Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .277 with a strikeout rate of 28% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: At this price, Velasquez stands out as an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a positive ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia, but they aren’t an offense that is going to hit many home runs, even in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. They draw a difficult matchup against Vince Velasquez, who has an elite strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. Velasquez does allow home runs to lefties every now and then (1.69 HR/9), so Justin Bour makes sense as a one-off in tournaments. He owns a .216 ISO and a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.343 0.157 36.5% 7.0% 23.2% 39.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,500
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.357 0.126 37.9% 6.8% 17.8% 51.4% OF $3,000 3B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.387 0.244 40.7% 5.4% 16.6% 42.3% C $3,500 C $4,900 C $8,700
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.366 0.216 41.7% 16.5% 26.3% 39.5% 1B $2,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,400
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.321 0.121 38.0% 5.6% 18.9% 47.8% 2B $2,700 2B $4,000 2B $7,200
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.283 0.079 28.7% 3.8% 19.7% 47.5% 3B $2,300 3B $3,100 3B $5,700
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.307 0.161 33.6% 4.8% 21.9% 48.6% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.098 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 46.2% 60.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,700
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.027 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 100.0% P $7,400 P $7,300 P $14,500
Team Averages 0.277 0.123 31.7% 5.5% 27.5% 53.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies faced a reverse-splits pitcher last night and I wrote up Rhys Hoskins as my favorite one-off of the slate. While he did hit a home run, it wasn’t against the pitcher with reverse splits and in the grand scheme of the slate, it didn’t matter all that much. We should be willing to go right back to the well tonight, as Trevor Richards has allowed a .376 xwOBA and a 50% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, Hoskins has a .280 ISO against right-handed pitching and has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. The rest of the Phillies are secondary options in a slate this size.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.319 0.127 23.5% 14.0% 22.2% 43.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.380 0.280 36.9% 11.7% 26.4% 28.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 IF/OF $9,400
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.308 0.202 26.5% 7.6% 21.1% 40.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,600
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.368 0.178 34.4% 20.1% 15.4% 39.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.363 0.240 44.0% 7.8% 21.7% 39.3% SS $3,300 2B/SS $4,200 SS $8,300
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.377 0.213 34.4% 8.6% 23.7% 43.6% OF $2,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.329 0.216 26.1% 5.1% 13.7% 53.1% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,200
8 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.185 0.000 15.8% 0.0% 29.6% 87.5% P $8,100 P $8,000 P $15,200
9 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.326 0.152 38.0% 10.0% 33.6% 34.6% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,400
Team Averages 0.328 0.179 31.1% 9.4% 23.0% 45.5%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Pittsburgh
stlouismlb John Gant pittsburghmlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-155 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.380 59.4% 1.69 17.3% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.348 40.2% 1.14 21.6% 43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.255 29.2% 0.00 22.8% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.331 40.3% 0.95 27.0% 46.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Gant
john-gant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 2 5.57 4.67 14.5% 13.2% 53.7% 29.6% 25.9% 93.0 9.3%
2018 8 4.75 3.49 19.8% 11.5% 45.9% 46.8% 19.7% 93.1 11.8%
L14 2 5.98 3.48 14.9% 14.9% 39.4% 60.6% 18.2% 93.4 9.9%

Gant may have a low ERA (3.49), but his peripheral statistics don’t support it. In eight starts, he has a 4.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, a walk rate of 12%, and a hard contact rate of 47%. Eventually, those walks and hard hit balls are going to turn into runs scored. He checks into tonight’s game as an underdog against the Pirates, whose projected lineup has a .328 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gant is an easy fade in all formats.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2% 95.5 13.4%
2018 17 3.75 4.31 24.7% 7.5% 44.7% 40.2% 16.3% 94.6 13.6%
L14 2 2.64 4.50 29.6% 3.7% 51.4% 31.4% 11.4% 95.1 17.5%

Props to our editors, as we already have a new picture of Archer in a Pirates’ uniform. This will be his Pirates’ debut and his first career start with any team other than the Rays. I have a feeling that he’s going to like the move to the National League. He’ll have an easier schedule, he’ll get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup, and his home ballpark is kind to pitchers. We’ve seen the strikeout upside from Archer all year, especially in his last couple of starts (30%). He draws a great matchup to start his days in Pittsburgh, as he’ll face a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ offense that strikes out at a high rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is right there with Velasquez as my favorite mid-range pitching option of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and are facing a very talented right-handed pitcher in Chris Archer. While anything can happen in baseball, that’s not justification for targeting players in bad matchups. On the season, Archer has held right-handed hitters to a .331 xwOBA on a 46% ground ball rate with a 27% strikeout rate. His struggles have always come against left-handed hitters, which brings Matt Carpenter into the fold as a one-off in tournaments. He continues to mash the baseball and now owns a .430 xwOBA against right-handed pitching on the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.430 0.284 49.3% 14.1% 23.0% 19.4% 3B $4,100 1B/3B $5,000 3B $9,800
2 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.368 0.202 46.5% 5.2% 13.7% 41.7% C $2,900 C $4,200 C $8,100
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.364 0.174 38.0% 6.7% 25.1% 31.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.348 0.113 45.0% 5.7% 18.6% 47.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.271 0.107 35.7% 8.6% 23.1% 39.7% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Tyler O’Neill RIGHT 0.337 0.256 37.5% 2.4% 38.1% 33.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,200
7 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.273 0.118 30.6% 11.4% 21.2% 39.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.302 0.162 28.8% 7.1% 15.6% 47.7% 2B $2,000 2B $3,200 2B $6,800
9 John Gant RIGHT 0.132 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 77.8% P $6,400 P $5,600 P $11,100
Team Averages 0.314 0.157 34.6% 6.8% 22.8% 41.9%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a simple matchup to break down. Do these numbers look appealing to you? John Gant has held batters from the right side of the plate to a .255 xwOBA on a 52% ground ball rate. This takes most of the Pirates’ lineup out of consideration. However, Gant has struggled with batters from the other side of the plate, allowing a .380 xwOBA with a 59% hard contact rate. Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, and Colin Moran make an intriguing three-man stack that will garner little to no ownership in a slate this size.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.324 0.146 24.4% 8.5% 12.4% 54.7% OF $2,200 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.339 0.199 33.2% 5.4% 18.8% 46.1% OF $3,400 OF $5,300 CF $9,500
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.386 0.275 37.6% 12.3% 22.0% 34.0% OF $3,600 OF $5,200 RF $9,400
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.359 0.142 32.7% 8.1% 16.3% 41.9% 3B $2,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.191 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 13.0% 60.0% OF $2,100 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,800
6 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.315 0.238 27.8% 8.7% 13.0% 58.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.395 0.223 35.8% 13.3% 19.4% 36.1% C $2,800 C $3,900 C $7,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.318 0.135 27.6% 7.7% 23.2% 39.1% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,800
9 Chris Archer RIGHT P $9,000 P $8,200 P $15,900
Team Averages 0.328 0.170 30.5% 8.0% 17.3% 46.3%

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier (GPP), Gregory Polanco (GPP), Colin Moran (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier (Cash), Gregory Polanco (Cash), Colin Moran (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
atlantamlb Anibal Sanchez nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-140 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.311 30.0% 1.21 25.0% 44.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.275 26.2% 0.54 30.3% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.280 27.0% 1.11 21.9% 39.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.209 0.253 31.4% 0.38 29.9% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 17 4.16 6.41 21.6% 6.0% 35.6% 37.4% 16.8% 90.8 9.8%
2018 13 3.98 3.00 23.4% 7.6% 41.6% 28.4% 25.6% 90.7 10.0%
L14 2 4.31 5.11 22.2% 9.3% 42.9% 32.4% 35.1% 90.9 12.4%

Sanchez was originally scheduled to pitch the other night against the Marlins, but the game was rained out. He’ll now take on the Mets in Citi Field. His season as a whole has been solid. In 13 starts, he has a 3.98 SIERA (3.00 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 7%. He went from being an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allowed a lot of hard contact to being an average fly-ball pitcher with an elite soft contact rate (26%). The transformation has been fun to watch. While there are certainly some strikeouts to be had in the Mets’ lineup, I can’t justify playing Sanchez over Chris Archer or Vince Velasquez. And for those reasons, I have to be out (Shark Tank, anyone?).

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez isn’t a bad play, but he’s not going to make the final cut of my lineups tonight.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $23,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3% 95.2 13.3%
2018 21 3.00 1.82 30.1% 5.9% 45.0% 28.8% 25.0% 95.6 15.0%
L14 2 3.41 3.00 25.0% 3.3% 33.3% 23.3% 37.2% 96.4 11.6%

This should be a fun battle between one of the best pitchers in the National League (deGrom) and one of the hottest offenses in baseball. While he’s had some amazing seasons as a professional, this has to be deGrom’s best thus far. In 21 starts, he has a 3.00 SIERA (1.82 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has an above-average ground ball rate and an elite soft contact rate (25%). Every single box in his pitching table above (for the 2018 season) is green or blue. He’s truly been impressive. The crazy part? He has more losses (six) than wins (five) this season. It’s almost comical how little run support the Mets have given him this season. From a raw projection standpoint, deGrom is the top pitcher of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: deGrom is an elite play in all formats, but I’m not sure he’s a must given his matchup and his price across the industry.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Why take a risk on the Braves when we have plenty of exploitable matchups in this slate?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.369 0.250 43.9% 7.0% 29.9% 40.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,400
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.318 0.226 36.0% 4.3% 17.7% 36.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.411 0.187 45.4% 13.2% 16.8% 37.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.400 0.169 42.2% 10.6% 8.9% 42.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,500
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.324 0.149 35.3% 5.9% 8.8% 31.7% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $5,900
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.318 0.148 38.6% 13.4% 20.4% 50.7% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,500 3B $6,600
7 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.292 0.123 27.1% 7.8% 12.1% 46.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.282 0.143 32.8% 6.8% 22.4% 44.1% SS $2,800 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Anibal Sanchez RIGHT 0.144 0.000 11.1% 5.9% 41.2% 50.0% P $8,500 P $8,000 P $15,500
Team Averages 0.318 0.155 34.7% 8.3% 19.8% 42.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight, but that has more to do with the fact that Jacob deGrom is starting than it does to do with the Mets’ offense. They have a mediocre matchup (at best) against Anibal Sanchez, who has a high soft contact rate (26%) and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are typically on my radar in tournaments, but they are both priced up across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.366 0.238 36.0% 13.3% 27.7% 34.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 LF $8,900
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.349 0.162 41.3% 14.3% 28.0% 35.9% OF $2,500 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.350 0.164 36.3% 16.9% 21.2% 36.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 LF $8,600
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.365 0.185 46.6% 10.3% 21.1% 36.6% 3B $2,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,300
5 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.349 0.188 23.1% 13.6% 18.2% 36.4% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,600
6 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.249 0.118 31.8% 8.3% 39.3% 43.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.318 0.178 32.8% 6.1% 18.8% 32.0% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.252 0.052 19.0% 8.7% 16.5% 48.9% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,700
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.194 0.038 0.0% 3.6% 28.6% 33.3% P $11,500 P $12,400 P $23,800
Team Averages 0.310 0.147 29.7% 10.6% 24.4% 37.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Tampa Bay
whitesoxmlb Lucas Giolito tampabaymlb Ryne Stanek
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -185 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.384 0.424 32.8% 1.48 9.7% 35.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.193 0.224 27.6% 0.00 37.3% 24.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.342 29.7% 1.53 17.9% 46.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.338 49.3% 1.35 26.9% 38.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Giolito
lucas-giolito-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 4.49 2.38 19.0% 6.7% 45.0% 35.4% 19.2% 92.1 10.1%
2018 21 5.87 6.26 13.8% 12.7% 40.4% 31.3% 16.4% 92.1 7.9%
L14 2 5.10 6.97 16.0% 10.0% 45.9% 48.7% 16.2% 93.3 11.8%

Outside of the nights that Carlos Rodon pitches, you’d probably be profitable over the course of the season if you stacked offenses against the White Sox in every slate. Their rotation is awful and their bullpen isn’t much better. Giolito has 21 starts under his belt this season (which is more than I would have given him), posting a 5.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 13%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which isn’t a recipe for success in any matchup. The Rays have an implied total of 4.69 runs, which is all that needs to be said.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Giolito in all formats.

Ryne Stanek
ryne-stanek-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.67 5.85 30.5% 12.6% 35.2% 44.4% 3.7% 98.2 15.4%
2018 16 3.59 2.38 30.5% 11.4% 34.4% 42.7% 19.8% 98.1 14.8%
L14 4 4.90 3.86 22.6% 12.9% 30.0% 50.0% 20.0% 97.8 12.4%

If you were just tuning into baseball for the first time this season and saw that Stanek has made 16 starts with a 3.59 SIERA and a 31% strikeout rate, you would be chomping at the bit to play him at a price of only $4,800 on DraftKings. As seasoned veterans, we know that the Rays are making another one of their patented bullpen starts. Stanek is only going to pitch one or two innings. He’ll be followed by Yonny Chirinos ($5,100 on DraftKings), who could be a sneaky play in large-field tournaments tonight. He typically throws between 60-80 pitches and if the Rays have the lead, he’ll be in line for the win.

Quick Breakdown: Stanek is an easy fade, while Chirinos is viable in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will open the game against Ryne Stanek (who is a right-handed pitcher with reverse splits) and then they’ll face Yonny Chirinos (who is a right-handed pitcher that has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters). Chicago has one of the lowest implied totals of the slate, as they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Outside of a Yoan Moncada one-off in tournaments, this is an easy offense to cross off our list of potential targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.347 0.202 39.1% 10.1% 33.3% 31.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,300
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.313 0.172 28.3% 6.3% 17.8% 46.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 2B $7,400
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.373 0.191 35.0% 6.5% 17.6% 44.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.329 0.275 38.1% 5.2% 35.1% 38.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.372 0.254 41.0% 1.4% 22.7% 47.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,400
6 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.279 0.115 25.7% 3.2% 26.1% 51.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
7 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.344 0.154 27.4% 9.8% 16.5% 42.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.336 0.161 26.1% 8.3% 18.5% 39.5% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,800
9 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.274 0.151 25.9% 6.1% 25.8% 50.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
Team Averages 0.330 0.186 31.8% 6.3% 23.7% 43.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

This may not be an exact quote, but the most interesting man in the world (from the Dos Equis commercials) said “I don’t often stack the Rays’ offense, but when I do, it’s against Lucas Giolito Don’t try to search the actual quote, just trust me on this one. Giolito has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season and he has allowed a .424 xwOBA to lefties and a .342 xwOBA to righties. Unfortunately, the sites seem to have priced up the Rays in this matchup. While that should help lower ownership, they go from being one of my favorite stacks to one that I’ll only use if building five or more tournament lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.267 0.119 34.8% 7.2% 27.3% 52.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,300
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.313 0.091 28.8% 5.5% 14.6% 53.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,200
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.365 0.248 43.8% 13.5% 24.4% 40.6% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,100
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.358 0.241 38.6% 5.7% 24.2% 42.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 1B $8,200
5 Michael Perez LEFT 0.430 0.091 44.4% 0.0% 18.2% 33.3% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,800
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.318 0.115 36.0% 5.7% 19.9% 46.7% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,600
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.295 0.128 31.8% 7.2% 25.7% 35.0% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,500
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.243 0.082 24.1% 7.5% 30.1% 43.9% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.288 0.120 29.4% 8.5% 19.1% 44.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 CF $9,400
Team Averages 0.320 0.137 34.6% 6.8% 22.6% 43.6%

Elite Plays – Jake Bauers, Michael Perez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, Joey Wendle

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious