MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-05 17:14:29

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Baltimore					Chicago White Sox
			Yovani Gallardo					Miguel Gonzalez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -105					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.348	15	24.4%	15.5%	SP vs. Left	0.339	18	29.1%	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.316	9	27.9%	15.6%	SP vs. Right	0.320	15	29.6%	17.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yovani Gallardo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		19.5	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		38.2	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	5	98.6	5.92	5.14	16.0%	15.2%	6.5%	42.9%	42.9%	25.9%
2016	13	92.4	5.54	5.70	16.2%	12.8%	6.3%	40.4%	40.9%	28.1%
2015	33	97.8	4.59	3.42	15.3%	8.6%	6.5%	49.3%	28.7%	25.5%

This should be a fun one. There are always a lot of runs put up when Yovani Gallardo or Miguel Gonzalez takes the mound and tonight they square off against one another. Gallardo has been in terrible form over the last month, posting a 5.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 15.2%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with hitters from both sides of the plate. There is no reason for Gallardo to be on your radar tonight, even in a favorable matchup against the White Sox.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Miguel Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		23.9	FPPG:		12.3
					Pitcher Rating:		50.4	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	101.2	3.98	2.48	20.6%	5.3%	7.1%	41.2%	34.0%	32.0%
2016	16	94.6	4.55	4.06	18.6%	8.2%	8.5%	42.4%	35.5%	30.4%
2015	26	93.8	4.51	4.91	17.5%	8.2%	8.9%	40.3%	35.8%	28.6%

Gonzalez has actually been in decent form recently, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. I’m not putting a ton of stock into the recent success though, as the larger sample size suggests that it’s just an aberration. He is a below-average right-handed pitcher that has allowed 33 home runs in his last 42 starts. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the ~~Oreos~~ Orioles (I haven’t had breakfast yet), who are ranked second in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles’ offense has mashed right-handed pitching all season. They may strikeout at a high clip, but they make up for it by hitting a lot of home runs. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed a .339 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. This is a great game to stack on both sides, as it could very well turn into a shootout.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.72 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.344	0.213	0.370	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.401	0.133	0.423	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.379	0.236	0.332	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,400
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.380	0.300	0.181	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,000
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.346	0.215	0.248	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400
6	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.348	0.252	0.443	3B	$3,400	1B	$3,600
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.316	0.160	0.202	C	$2,900	C	$3,200
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.361	0.228	0.236	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.274	0.111	0.313	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.205	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Of the two matchups in this game, the White Sox have the more favorable one. However, their offense isn’t nearly as potent as the Orioles, which is why they both have similar run projections. I don’t stack the White Sox very often, but I’ll make an exception for that tonight. In 13 starts this season, Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 wOBA to right-handed hitters. There is value galore in the White Sox lineup tonight.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.9% (17 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.97 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.353	0.166	0.365	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.274	0.121	0.199	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.329	0.137	0.352	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.364	0.206	0.328	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
5	Justin Morneau	LEFT	0.348	0.167	0.371	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.327	0.220	0.286	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.292	0.117	0.459	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.258	0.101	0.310	C	$2,500	C	$2,700
9	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.272	0.123	0.269	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.151	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Justin Morneau

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Texas					Houston
			Martin Perez					Dallas Keuchel
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -170					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.242	2	19.0%	21.4%	SP vs. Left	0.228	5	22.2%	23.8%
SP vs. Right	0.345	14	30.2%	10.0%	SP vs. Right	0.297	29	25.3%	22.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		22.0	FPPG:		9.6
					Pitcher Rating:		31.9	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	5	90.2	5.35	7.22	9.0%	8.3%	7.3%	52.3%	25.2%	30.9%
2016	22	95.1	5.29	4.22	11.1%	9.7%	7.1%	53.8%	26.0%	31.6%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Remember earlier in the season when Perez had an ERA around 2.00? It’s safe to say that regression has caught up to him. He may induce an elite ground ball rate, but that doesn’t do a lot of good when you are striking out 11.1% of the batters that you are facing. In the last month of play, Perez has a 7.22 ERA with a walk rate that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate. If you are considering Perez at all tonight, do yourself a favor and head on over to RotoAcademy.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dallas Keuchel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		14.1
					Pitcher Rating:		75.9	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	100.6	4.01	3.94	20.5%	7.1%	11.1%	52.2%	31.1%	25.0%
2016	22	102.5	3.86	4.86	20.2%	7.3%	9.8%	56.1%	24.6%	29.7%
2015	33	105.8	2.84	2.48	23.7%	5.6%	10.3%	61.7%	19.6%	21.3%

Keuchel didn’t have a great outing against the Tigers in his last start, but he has slowly been trending in the right direction. His strikeout rate is back over 20% on the season and he has always been able to induce an elite ground ball rate. He limits the hard contact against him and he generally pitches well at home. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against the Rangers, whose offense is awfully intimidating after they acquired Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy. I’m not against playing Keuchel tonight, I just prefer Jameson Taillon at a cheaper price point.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

When you have Jonathan Lucroy in the six or seven hole, you know that offense is stacked. The Rangers should be one of the best offenses in baseball the rest of the way. While I like their prospects moving forward, I don’t like their matchup tonight against Dallas Keuchel. In addition to an elite ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.333 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.160 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.75 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.344	0.174	0.424	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.379	0.206	0.193	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.375	0.236	0.374	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.388	0.220	0.353	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.336	0.204	0.421	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,400
6	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.339	0.191	0.282	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,700
7	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	0.320	C	$3,000	C	$3,600
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.346	0.153	0.308	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400
9	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.255	0.041	0.370	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.174	0.338	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

I know there are some favorable matchups on the schedule and I know the Astros have struggled against southpaws this season, but how do they not have a top five run projection tonight. Martin Perez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season and the Astros will likely have a lineup consisting of nine right-handed batters. Over the last two seasons, Perez has allowed a .345 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.311 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.93 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.402	0.256	0.333	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.101	3B	$2,300	SS	$4,100
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.423	0.197	0.415	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,100
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.334	0.188	0.330	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.312	0.224	0.355	C	$3,000	C	$4,500
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.278	0.120	0.319	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,000
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.346	0.202	0.346	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$4,300
8	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.284	0.220	0.240	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,000
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.283	0.194	0.386	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.178	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Atlanta					St. Louis
			Joel De La Cruz					Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -220					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.348	2	36.6%	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.284	3	20.9%	20.8%
SP vs. Right	0.346	2	34.9%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.288	15	30.5%	18.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Joel De La Cruz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,200	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		7.7	FPPG:		3.9
					Pitcher Rating:		27.7	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	1	62.0	4.76	2.31	14.3%	8.2%	8.8%	47.2%	33.3%	29.7%
2016	3	71.3	4.98	3.80	11.8%	4.9%	7.2%	38.3%	35.8%	35.7%

De La Cruz has been decent out of the bullpen this season, but has struggled in his three starts. He is a low strikeout pitcher that doesn’t project as a major league starter. Tonight he has to take on one of the best offenses in baseball and he has to face them on the road. The Cardinals are currently ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching. There is more downside than upside with De La Cruz tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jaime Garcia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		27.2	FPPG:		13.6
					Pitcher Rating:		74.3	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	81.6	4.50	6.04	15.8%	7.0%	7.6%	52.4%	29.3%	40.7%
2016	21	88.0	4.05	4.30	18.9%	7.8%	8.7%	56.6%	24.0%	29.7%
2015	20	92.9	3.39	2.43	19.0%	5.9%	9.2%	61.2%	22.3%	27.1%

Garcia has not been in good form recently, posting a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8% over the last month of play. While his form is obviously a concern, it’s hard to overlook a matchup against the Braves at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. Atlanta is ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Garcia is a heavy favorite, his price is down across the industry, and the run support should come in bunches. He is right below Jameson Taillon as the best pitching value on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have actually been hitting the ball well recently, but Vegas doesn’t seem too bullish on them tonight. They have the second lowest run projection on the board, as they square off against Jaime Garcia in a pitcher’s ballpark. Garcia hasn’t been in great form recently, but he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.287 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.106 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.74 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.47 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.56 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.294	0.140	0.225	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,100
2	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.347	0.173	0.423	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.349	0.165	0.406	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,800
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.383	0.267	0.400	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.284	0.063	0.369	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
6	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.251	0.047	0.358	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300
7	Anthony Recker	RIGHT	0.343	0.226	0.396	C	$2,900	C	$2,700
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.247	0.049	0.427	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600
9	Joel De La Cruz	RIGHT			0.000	P	$4,200	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.141	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals have one of the highest implied team totals in tonight’s slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Joel De La Cruz, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 35.7% hard hit contact rate this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, although I always like to give the edge to the batters that are of the opposite handedness of the pitcher. In this case, that means the left-handed bats. Speaking of, look who is back in the lineup.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.07 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.94 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.407	0.266		2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$4,600
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.373	0.261	0.333	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.333	0.164	0.209	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.339	0.170	0.252	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
5	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.350	0.267	0.577	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,900
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.316	0.193	0.294	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,900
7	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.323	0.128	0.212	SS	$3,100	3B	$3,900
8	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.305	0.100	0.415	C	$3,000	C	$3,800
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.108	0.000	0.000	P	$7,800	P	$6,900
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.172	0.287	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Holliday, Matt Adams

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Toronto					Kansas City
			Francisco Liriano					Dillon Gee
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -141					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.301	7	22.7%	24.4%	SP vs. Left	0.390	9	33.7%	13.3%
SP vs. Right	0.313	27	30.4%	24.9%	SP vs. Right	0.341	10	28.1%	19.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		71.8	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	92.0	3.89	5.88	26.3%	11.9%	13.3%	62.1%	25.8%	40.0%
2016	21	95.2	4.68	5.46	22.2%	13.2%	10.9%	51.9%	30.5%	35.1%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Liriano had that one great outing against the Brewers, but has otherwise been a major disappointment this season. Maybe a change of scenery can light a fire under him. He will be making his first start with the Blue Jays tonight and he gets to take on the defending World Series champs. The Royals have struggled offensively this season, but they have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against southpaws. I’m going to wait to see some form from Liriano before getting burned by him again.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dillon Gee
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		15.2	FPPG:		7.0
					Pitcher Rating:		41.7	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	3	117.0	4.56	6.30	14.3%	5.5%	8.8%	47.1%	32.9%	23.6%
2016	7	180.1	4.34	4.66	17.9%	7.3%	9.6%	43.3%	36.6%	29.5%
2015	7	88.0	4.41	5.90	13.7%	6.0%	9.4%	51.0%	29.4%	33.6%

Gee has not pitched well in the last month of play, posting a 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.3%. He is listed as a sizable underdog at home and he draws one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule. The Blue Jays are ranked eighth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Gee is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark tonight, but they still have the sixth highest run projection on the board. They draw an excellent matchup against Dillon Gee, who has allowed a .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Kauffman Stadium is a tough park to hit home runs in, but the Blue Jays should be able to nickel and dime their way to a big game tonight.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.07 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.85 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.74 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.380	0.279	0.310	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.271	0.326	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,300
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.389	0.285	0.366	1B	$4,600	1B	$4,800
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.341	0.192	0.321	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.316	0.175	0.455	C	$3,300	C	$4,000
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.323	0.180	0.317	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,700
7	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.293	0.147	0.113	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.128	0.261	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.369	0.186	0.371	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.345	0.205	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Francisco Liriano, who has looked like a completely different pitcher this season. Given his recent form, it’s more prudent to only look at his splits from this year rather than combining them with last year’s. In 2016, Liriano has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Royals are a sneaky offense to target tonight at home.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.80 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.83 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.260	0.059	0.225	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400
2	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.359	0.179	0.315	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,000
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.412	0.232	0.246	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.318	0.145	0.218	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,600
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.334	0.143	0.245	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,200
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.271	0.148	0.225	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.320	0.126	0.274	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,400
8	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.336	0.139	0.421	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
9	Raul Mondesi	SWITCH	0.319	0.000	0.188	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.130	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Miami					Colorado
			David Phelps					Jorge De La Rosa
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -108					11.5
SP vs. Left	0.323	8	32.4%	18.9%	SP vs. Left	0.319	6	31.5%	23.8%
SP vs. Right	0.282	7	31.9%	22.4%	SP vs. Right	0.344	23	31.7%	18.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
David Phelps
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		7.6	FPPG:		4.2
					Pitcher Rating:		45.0	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	0	0.0	4.15	2.89	33.3%	19.1%	8.5%	40.0%	40.0%	50.0%
2016	0	0.0	3.01	2.65	31.5%	10.1%	9.6%	42.7%	37.9%	26.0%
2015	19	97.8	4.49	4.50	16.0%	6.9%	4.5%	41.8%	35.2%	34.2%

Phelps can’t be very happy about the timing of tonight’s start. His first start of the season just so happens to come against the Rockies in Coors Field. He has pitched well out of the bullpen this season, but hasn’t fared well as a starter in the majors. He should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jorge De La Rosa
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		21.7	FPPG:		9.3
					Pitcher Rating:		34.1	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	5	95.8	5.41	4.60	12.1%	8.3%	9.8%	41.7%	35.9%	30.1%
2016	15	97.6	4.75	5.51	17.9%	10.1%	10.9%	48.0%	32.7%	30.2%
2015	26	94.6	4.10	4.17	21.1%	10.2%	11.7%	52.0%	27.3%	32.6%

De La Rosa used to be the ace of this Rockies’ starting rotation, but you could argue that he is the fourth or fifth option now. Over the last month of play, he has a 5.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.1%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Marlins and he has to face them at home in Coors Field. You know the drill with what to do with pitchers in Coors.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are small favorites tonight in what is expected to be the highest scoring game on the schedule. Miami has the highest run projection of the 30 teams in action. They draw a favorable matchup against Jorge De La Rosa and they get to face him in the best hitter’s park in all of baseball. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, as De La Rosa has allowed a .319 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Giancarlo Stanton may hit a 550-foot home run in the thin air in Colorado.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.142 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.8% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 4.00 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.80 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.357	0.097	0.364	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,900
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.409	0.142	0.418	3B	$3,900	3B	$5,100
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.317	0.073	0.399	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.428	0.407	0.359	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,200
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.421	0.261	0.341	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,400
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.303	0.084	0.208	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,600
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.289	0.150	0.303	C	$3,700	C	$4,300
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.327	0.137	0.309	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,000
9	David Phelps	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.000	P	$5,500	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.150	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Chris Johnson, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies may not have the highest implied team total tonight, but they are a close second behind the Marlins. They draw an equally favorable matchup against David Phelps, who has only thrown more than 40 pitches one time this season. If you look at his career splits, Phelps has allowed a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .304 wOBA to right-handed hitters. You could honestly build a cash game lineup that consists solely of hitters from this game.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.19 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.70 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.358	0.177	0.320	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,400
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.337	0.113	0.334	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.291	0.456	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,600
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.384	0.305	0.348	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,200
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.449	0.303	0.437	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,100
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.332	0.176	0.339	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,900
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.309	0.120	0.278	SS	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,900
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.341	0.174	0.262	C	$2,900	C	$4,100
9	Jorge De La Rosa	LEFT	0.081	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$4,200
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.184	0.308	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 5th - Page Two

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Justin Morneau

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Holliday, Matt Adams

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Chris Johnson, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author