MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-30 13:44:20

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Seattle at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Chicago Cubs
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Jon Lester
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.319	16	19.1%	4.2%	SP vs. Left	0.272	6	28.1%	4.8%
SP vs. Right	0.297	21	20.1%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.292	27	23.6%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hisashi Iwakuma
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		15.3
					Pitcher Rating:		56.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	90.6	4.56	2.51	17.2%	6.3%	6.2%	41.7%	40.6%	34.7%
2016	20	93.0	4.45	3.96	17.7%	5.9%	8.0%	40.3%	39.2%	31.8%
2015	20	93.4	3.36	3.54	21.5%	4.1%	10.6%	50.4%	31.1%	26.9%

Iwakuma is no longer an elite strikeout pitcher. In 20 starts this season, he has a 4.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.7%. His fly ball rate and hard hit contact rate are both way up this season, which could help explain the higher SIERA. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Cubs, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and 14th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		35.8	FPPG:		19.3
					Pitcher Rating:		82.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	84.2	5.19	7.23	17.6%	12.0%	9.5%	43.8%	35.6%	25.7%
2016	20	97.0	3.78	3.09	23.9%	7.3%	10.2%	47.1%	33.7%	27.5%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Lester has been in awful form recently, posting a 5.19 SIERA (7.23 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 17.6% in his last five starts. he will look to regain some of that early season momentum, as he takes on the Mariners at home. Seattle has been a mediocre offense against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 19th in team wOBA and ninth in team ISO. I have him ranked as the fourth best pitching option in the all-day slate, but I prefer a few of the arms pitching tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners come into this game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. While that’s not very promising, Jon Lester has been struggling in his last few starts. His command hasn’t been nearly as good, which has led to a 12% walk rate. The one potential plus in this matchup is that Lester has allowed 27 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.3% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.86 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.281	0.027	0.380	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
2	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.312	0.137	0.266	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200
3	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.446	0.335	0.398	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900
4	Dae-ho Lee	RIGHT	0.334	0.206	0.177	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,100
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.327	0.198	0.355	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900
6	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.258	0.103	0.347	C	$2,000	C	$2,700
7	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.284	0.124	0.374	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
8	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.249	0.163	0.000	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,400
9	Hisashi Iwakuma	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$8,300	P	$8,700
	Team Averages	—	0.277	0.144	0.287	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ offense has cooled off after a blazing start to the season. They continue to be listed as heavy favorites almost every day though, thanks to a good pitching staff and the potential to put up a lot of runs. They have a mediocre run projection today against Hisashi Iwakuma. While he is no longer an elite strikeout pitcher, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.98 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.06 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (14 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.321	0.187		OF	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,500
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.377	0.225	0.296	3B	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,800
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.400	0.274	0.308	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,100
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.338	0.171	0.240	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,500
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.326	0.156	0.396	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.329	0.134	0.171	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.289	0.149	0.412	SS	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,700
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.239	0.102	0.115	C	$2,700	C	$2,700
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.097	0.013	0.172	P	$9,700	P	$9,900
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.157	0.264	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Toronto
			Kevin Gausman					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -135					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.276	9	25.7%	6.2%	SP vs. Left	0.280	23	19.1%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.362	24	18.7%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.261	15	21.2%	8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kevin Gausman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		15.4
					Pitcher Rating:		62.3	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	4	107.0	3.40	3.28	25.7%	5.0%	11.9%	41.4%	37.1%	34.3%
2016	17	102.7	3.78	3.77	22.5%	5.4%	10.9%	43.4%	35.0%	30.8%
2015	17	110.4	3.69	4.25	21.9%	6.2%	10.9%	44.4%	38.1%	27.4%

Gausman has flown under the radar all season, despite posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.5%. I keep waiting for the right matchup, but when you are in the American League East you don’t get a ton of easy matchups. That tough sledding continues tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The risk outweighs the potential reward here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		19.6
					Pitcher Rating:		63.0	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	2	97.5	3.79	4.09	21.3%	2.1%	10.3%	26.5%	38.2%	26.5%
2016	17	100.5	4.29	2.94	23.2%	9.1%	10.6%	33.8%	48.3%	32.5%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada is not going to be a popular play tonight. Everyone is going to see his extreme fly-ball rate and his matchup against the Orioles and immediately think to fade him. I’m higher on him than most though, which is strange because I’ve been off of him for most of the season. While Baltimore does rank high in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching, they also have the eighth highest strikeout rate. Fly balls aren’t always a bad thing for a pitcher, as long as they aren’t going over the fence. I’ll be using Estrada in a few GPP lineups tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Even though I have my eye on Marco Estrada for tournaments, that doesn’t mean that I won’t be using any Orioles tonight. They will just be in different lineups. As I mentioned above, the Orioles hit a lot of home runs and Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons, he has given up 38 home runs, 25 of which were to left-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.341	0.205	0.277	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.395	0.128	0.306	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.384	0.239	0.321	3B	$4,600	3B/SS	$4,300
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.385	0.309	0.196	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.348	0.212	0.239	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
6	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.339	0.243	0.251	3B	$3,000	1B	$3,000
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.324	0.165	0.155	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.365	0.236	0.276	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,400
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.276	0.113	0.361	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.206	0.265	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays have been better against righties than they have against lefties this season. They are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Their matchup against Kevin Gausman isn’t ideal, but they still have the second highest team total on the board. Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.05 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.71 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.381	0.275	0.211	OF	$4,500	OF	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.399	0.271	0.372	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.279	0.346	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,300
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.353	0.208	0.328	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.320	0.174	0.290	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.309	0.171	0.333	C	$2,800	C	$2,700
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.333	0.229	0.468	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,700
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.130	0.256	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.370	0.186	0.403	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.214	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					Detroit
			Collin McHugh					Matt Boyd
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -130					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.312	16	21.0%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.410	6	14.2%	5.7%
SP vs. Right	0.328	17	20.7%	5.8%	SP vs. Right	0.361	17	19.5%	8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		65.2	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	4	99.8	3.74	2.66	28.0%	10.0%	10.8%	40.7%	37.3%	28.3%
2016	20	97.5	3.97	4.18	22.4%	6.9%	11.0%	43.9%	37.4%	28.5%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh comes into tonight’s game in his best form of the season. In his last four starts, he has a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. I don’t love the spot for him tonight though, as he is a reverse-splits pitcher that has to face a Tigers’ lineup that consists primarily of right-handed hitters. To make matters worse, he has to face them on the road in the somewhat hitter-friendly Comerica Park.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Boyd
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		21.2	FPPG:		10.9
					Pitcher Rating:		53.9	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	3	88.3	3.21	1.17	27.0%	4.8%	7.9%	45.0%	35.0%	35.0%
2016	8	94.8	4.30	4.63	19.8%	7.3%	8.1%	41.8%	38.1%	32.1%
2015	12	83.6	4.83	7.53	17.1%	7.9%	8.2%	31.9%	51.9%	34.0%

Boyd has looked good in his last three starts, but I’m not willing to trust him in DFS just yet. In his last 20 major league starts, he has a SIERA close to 4.60 with a strikeout rate well under 20%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Astros, but he still has to deal with the likes of George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. Even at his cheap price point, Boyd is not on my radar in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros haven’t been great as a whole against southpaws, but the top four hitters in their lineup all boast a .340+ wOBA against lefties in the last two seasons. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Matt Boyd. In the last two seasons, Boyd has allowed a .410 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.91 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.55 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.405	0.262	0.333	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.345	0.201	0.365	1B	$3,500	1B/3B	$4,200
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.423	0.189	0.518	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.342	0.193	0.438	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,300
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.310	0.222	0.448	C	$2,900	C	$4,600
6	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.125	3B	$2,700	SS	$3,900
7	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.287	0.148	0.297	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,300
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.281	0.121	0.260	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.279	0.183	0.369	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.169	0.350	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have the eighth highest run projection tonight, as they square off against Colliln McHugh at home. As I mentioned above, McHugh is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Tigers’ offense has been cold recently, but the top three bats in their lineup all have a .355+ wOBA in the last 14 days.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.66 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.339	0.156	0.358	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.286	0.055	0.361	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.410	0.222	0.463	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,900
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.299	0.148	0.239	C	$3,100	1B	$3,300
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.321	0.178	0.276	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,500
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.335	0.199	0.303	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
7	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.244	0.073	0.194	2B	$2,500	3B/OF	$2,300
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.327	0.219	0.363	C	$2,300	C	$3,200
9	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.315	0.167	0.331	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.157	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					NY Mets
			Tyler Chatwood					Steven Matz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -165					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.275	1	17.2%	9.3%	SP vs. Left	0.309	2	18.4%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.336	6	13.3%	11.5%	SP vs. Right	0.294	13	24.0%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Chatwood
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		27.3	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		37.2	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	4	85.5	6.38	6.00	14.4%	18.9%	5.9%	53.3%	21.7%	36.7%
2016	18	91.4	4.81	3.65	15.1%	10.5%	7.1%	57.7%	23.8%	29.0%

Chatwood has really struggled this season, posting a 4.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.1% and a walk rate of 10.5%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but when you aren’t striking anyone out, those ground balls will eventually find some holes through the infield. Even though he is facing the ice-cold Mets’ offense, there is no reason to consider Chatwood tonight. There isn’t enough upside to make up for the runs that he is likely going to allow.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Matz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		31.6	FPPG:		17.4
					Pitcher Rating:		83.6	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	101.0	4.19	3.56	21.5%	8.5%	9.5%	47.1%	34.1%	40.5%
2016	18	96.2	3.62	3.36	22.7%	5.8%	9.5%	51.8%	29.2%	29.8%
2015	6	96.0	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Matz is having a nice season overall, posting a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and a walk rate of 5.8%. He doesn’t generate as many swings and misses as a few of his teammates, but he is a reliable pitcher in DFS. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockies, who continue to struggle offensively away from Coors Field. The Rockies also have the eighth highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have the second lowest implied team total on the schedule tonight. They have not fared well on the road this season and they have been slumping as a whole in the last couple of weeks. This is an easy offense to avoid as they draw a difficult matchup against Steven Matz, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.179 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.93 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.12 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.12 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.314	0.120	0.234	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.359	0.107	0.333	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.340	0.203	0.367	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,600
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.272	0.160	0.363	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.415	0.323	0.497	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,900
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.322	0.166	0.294	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,500
7	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.392	0.258	0.279	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,600
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.324	0.159	0.269	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.059	0.000	0.172	P	$6,900	P	$7,100
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.166	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets have been as easy fade offensively for the better part of a month now, but with a matchup against Tyler Chatwood, they deserve some consideration tonight for tournaments. The one drawback to the matchup is Chatwood’s elite ground ball rate. However, with such a low strikeout rate, it usually hasn’t been a problem for his opponents. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.94 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.71 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.367	0.221	0.263	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.317	0.173	0.274	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.379	0.261	0.318	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.325	0.106	0.337	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,100
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.325	0.168	0.224	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,100
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.281	0.115	0.412	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400
7	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.362	0.249	0.324	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.319	0.157	0.258	C	$2,300	C	$3,000
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.172	0.027	0.230	P	$9,700	P	$8,500
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.164	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Tampa Bay
			Ivan Nova					Jake Odorizzi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -115					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.372	16	11.9%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.271	13	26.3%	5.4%
SP vs. Right	0.317	14	21.0%	6.4%	SP vs. Right	0.332	23	17.5%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		21.8	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		61.7	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	4	88.0	3.41	2.66	25.8%	6.5%	11.7%	50.8%	31.1%	41.9%
2016	14	100.2	3.90	4.65	18.1%	5.5%	9.3%	54.9%	27.6%	34.8%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova has been a completely different pitcher over the last month of play, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8%. The high strikeout rate seems a bit out of character, has he had a 15.3% k-rate a year ago and he has an 18.1% k-rate this season. While I don’t trust it in the long run, I could see him having another nice outing tonight. The Rays have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and Nova gets to face them in a pitcher’s park.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Odorizzi
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		27.2	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		71.2	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	98.4	4.02	4.60	22.1%	5.7%	10.2%	31.8%	43.5%	27.3%
2016	21	101.4	4.07	4.10	22.5%	7.2%	9.3%	37.2%	43.4%	33.7%
2015	28	98.4	3.90	3.35	21.4%	6.6%	10.1%	37.3%	40.6%	27.0%

As I continue to mention over and over again, we no longer have to avoid taking pitchers against the Yankees. Sure, they have a low strikeout rate as a whole, but they are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They also average the ninth fewest pitches per plate appearance, which helps pitch counts. Odorizzi has always pitched better at home and his reverse-splits actually make sense against the Yankees. He is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the fifth lowest team total on the board. Their offense continues to struggle, especially on the road. They draw a mediocre matchup against Jake Odorizzi, but his numbers at home are a lot better than they are on the road. With Odorizzi’s reverse-splits, there aren’t any Yankees’ hitters that stand out as elite plays tonight.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.66 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.325	0.137	0.285	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.307	0.102	0.197	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.353	0.208	0.384	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.330	0.207	0.231	C	$3,100	C	$3,200
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.350	0.276	0.281	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,800
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.316	0.145	0.318	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.128	0.313	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,000
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.306	0.121	0.285	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,000
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.283	0.124	0.188	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.161	0.276	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

What do we trust more when it comes to Ivan Nova? His recent four-game sample or his numbers over the last two seasons combined? If you think his recent outings are more of a flash in the pan type of situation, then you may want to look to the Rays in tournaments. They will be low owned and Nova has allowed a .372 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.302 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.3% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.95 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.323	0.120	0.261	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.336	0.201	0.366	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,700
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.329	0.192	0.421	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300
4	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.350	0.266	0.295	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.336	0.202	0.315	OF	$3,300	1B/2B	$3,100
6	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.303	0.171	0.455	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.308	0.164	0.170	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,800
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.316	0.177	0.237	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.182	0.086	0.214	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.175	0.304	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 29th

Stackability Rating System:

Seattle at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson, Oswaldo Arcia

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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