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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-22 19:33:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Chicago White Sox – 4:10 PM ET

Oakland Chicago White Sox
oaklandmlb Sean Manaea whitesoxmlb James Shields
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-116 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.279 22.6% 5.6% 21.1% 49.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.346 28.1% 12.1% 17.1% 39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.367 42.4% 4.8% 16.9% 41.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.354 36.9% 6.5% 14.9% 33.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Manaea
sean-manaea-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.51 4.37 20.2% 8.0% 44.1% 33.3% 14.8%
2018 15 4.23 3.56 17.9% 5.0% 42.8% 38.1% 13.3%
L14 2 3.82 3.38 19.6% 2.0% 39.5% 22.5% 12.5%

This is the first game of a double-header between these two teams, but neither is featured in the main slates across the industry. I decided to include the first of the two in the Grind Down since this game is featured in the all-day slates. Manaea is more talented than his season long numbers suggest and perhaps his last two starts are the sign of a turnaround. In those outings, he posted a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. If you are playing the showdown slate, Manaea is certainly the preferred pitching target, as the White Sox projected lineup has a .293 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea is viable in the showdown slate and a GPP flier in the all-day slate.

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3%
2018 15 5.10 4.63 16.0% 9.3% 36.3% 32.8% 14.9%
L14 3 5.15 5.21 16.1% 7.4% 29.5% 39.3% 16.4%

Shields has struggled all season, but his game log doesn’t look as bad as his actual numbers. While he has a high SIERA, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate, he’s typically able to pitch six or seven innings and end up with positive fantasy production. He draws a decent strikeout matchup against the A’s, whose projected lineup has a 26% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. This sounds like an endorsement for Shields, but unfortunately it is not.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Shields in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s see a ballpark upgrade playing in Guaranteed Rate Field and they draw an excellent matchup against James Shields. In addition to having a high fly-ball rate, Shields has allowed a .346 xwOBA to lefties and a .354 xwOBA to righties this season. Meanwhile, the A’s offense is filled with fly-ball hitters that have high hard contact rates. For the showdown slate, fit as many of the A’s hitters into your lineup as possible. For the all-day slate, Dustin Fowler, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson are the top targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.340 0.291 0.169 48.0% 5.3% 16.8% 43.8% OF $2,100 N/A N/A
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.312 0.327 0.098 29.3% 8.4% 18.7% 43.3% SS $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.339 0.276 0.230 35.2% 10.0% 22.3% 37.6% 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.446 0.487 0.324 51.6% 7.6% 24.9% 34.4% OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.407 0.337 0.250 54.2% 10.5% 29.0% 32.2% 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.329 0.411 0.113 41.0% 10.7% 23.1% 42.3% OF $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.355 0.382 0.139 45.8% 7.1% 21.4% 44.1% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Franklin Barreto RIGHT 0.019 0.204 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% 2B $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.322 0.332 0.102 44.4% 5.4% 15.5% 46.5% C $2,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.319 0.339 0.158 38.8% 7.2% 25.7% 36.0%

Elite Plays – Dustin Fowler, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Mark Canha

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have three hitters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .300 against left-handed pitching this season. All three bat from the right side and all three have an xwOBA of at least .350 — Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Matt Davidson. These are the only hitters from Chicago that deserve consideration and I would only recommend them in the showdown slate. On the season, Sean Manaea has allowed a .367 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.353 0.259 0.212 32.7% 7.0% 19.7% 42.3% SS $2,400 N/A N/A
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.253 0.333 0.052 28.2% 6.3% 30.2% 64.1% 3B $2,300 N/A N/A
3 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.206 0.312 0.111 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% C $2,200 N/A N/A
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.396 0.292 0.263 44.2% 6.3% 22.2% 51.2% 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.390 0.268 0.372 56.0% 18.5% 33.3% 52.0% 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.278 0.246 0.096 24.4% 5.4% 21.4% 33.3% OF $2,000 N/A N/A
7 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.218 0.319 0.082 32.4% 8.8% 36.8% 62.2% 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.244 0.171 0.125 37.0% 5.9% 41.2% 44.4% OF $2,000 N/A N/A
9 Charlie Tilson LEFT 0.300 0.243 0.000 33.3% 14.3% 21.4% 44.4% OF $2,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.293 0.271 0.146 32.0% 8.1% 25.1% 51.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Pittsburgh
arizonamlb Patrick Corbin pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-105 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.339 42.6% 11.3% 30.0% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.408 32.6% 4.5% 10.3% 43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.251 0.284 42.5% 6.1% 31.7% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.313 36.4% 5.0% 26.1% 57.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.12 4.03 21.6% 7.4% 50.4% 31.6% 18.5%
2018 15 2.96 3.48 31.4% 7.2% 45.5% 42.5% 15.5%
L14 2 4.10 7.94 23.1% 9.6% 42.9% 51.4% 14.3%

Corbin hasn’t been quite as sharp in his last couple of starts, but still owns a 2.96 SIERA with a 31% strikeout rate on the season. He has yet to throw 100 or more pitches in any single outing, but still has plenty of strikeout upside. The problem is that he is priced up around the industry and he’s pitching on the road against a low-strikeout offense. The Pirates’ projected lineup has a .361 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 16% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is viable in tournaments if you are building multiple lineups, but there are better plays overall.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 13 3.97 4.42 18.3% 4.7% 49.6% 34.3% 18.2%
L14 2 4.38 1.54 22.0% 10.0% 42.4% 32.4% 26.5%

Do you remember the criteria Nova needs to meet to be playable in DFS? He has to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup and the game has to take place in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While the latter applies, the former does not. Including the pitcher, the Diamondbacks are projected to have eight lefties in their lineup tonight, which really hurts Nova’s fantasy appeal. On the season, he has allowed a .408 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Nova in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

If you read the Ivan Nova blurb above, then you already know where I am heading. He has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but has struggled mightily against lefties. This bodes well for the Diamondbacks, who have plenty of left-handed batters to throw at him. Even though this isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Daniel Descalso are all viable options that should garner low ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.343 0.345 0.107 38.3% 5.7% 13.9% 53.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
2 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.357 0.564 0.206 45.5% 12.8% 31.3% 42.3% 1B $4,600 1B $5,400 1B $10,900
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.378 0.327 0.194 46.3% 10.3% 26.2% 43.3% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
4 David Peralta LEFT 0.376 0.394 0.254 53.5% 8.1% 18.8% 47.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.381 0.408 0.250 43.7% 17.1% 23.4% 31.1% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,800 3B $7,700
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.291 0.363 0.129 26.9% 7.1% 15.4% 52.7% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.262 0.256 0.070 52.5% 11.3% 47.4% 37.5% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,500
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.283 0.235 0.068 20.9% 11.8% 12.5% 40.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,500
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.180 0.198 0.000 11.1% 12.5% 31.3% 75.0% P $9,200 P $11,600 P $22,500
Team Averages 0.317 0.343 0.142 37.6% 10.7% 24.5% 47.0%

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb (GPP), David Peralta (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb (Cash), David Peralta (Cash), Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but draw a difficult matchup against Patrick Corbin. While he has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, he has an elite strikeout rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .284 xwOBA. With 13 other games on the schedule, we should be able to find better matchups to exploit. For large field tournament darts, Starling Marte, David Freese, and Francisco Cervelli have all hit left-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.355 0.330 0.138 34.6% 3.2% 9.7% 23.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.415 0.315 0.519 43.5% 10.0% 13.3% 52.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.403 0.401 0.298 31.4% 11.1% 24.1% 51.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.397 0.409 0.022 34.2% 13.0% 16.7% 55.3% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,900
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.390 0.344 0.182 34.8% 17.5% 25.0% 30.4% C $2,700 C $3,600 C $7,600
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.311 0.345 0.140 23.3% 15.7% 22.9% 37.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.405 0.458 0.412 23.1% 5.6% 22.2% 46.2% OF $2,200 1B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.377 0.404 0.102 38.6% 7.1% 10.7% 31.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.199 0.017 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% P $7,400 P $6,200 P $11,700
Team Averages 0.361 0.336 0.201 29.3% 9.2% 16.1% 40.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte (GPP), David Freese (GPP), Francisco Cervelli (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-152 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.369 34.6% 7.4% 27.2% 32.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.323 30.8% 7.3% 22.0% 40.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.285 28.4% 4.8% 23.1% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.359 31.2% 8.6% 17.2% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7%
2018 8 3.60 3.43 24.9% 6.0% 35.2% 31.0% 22.2%
L14 2 2.19 2.45 36.6% 4.9% 50.0% 45.5% 31.8%

Eflin has made drastic improvements this season. After being one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in 2017, he has posted a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% in 2018. While that’s all fine and dandy, I’m certainly not looking to target him on the road against the Nationals in a 14-game slate. Washington’s projected lineup has a .325 xwOBA against right-handed pitching and that will only get better when Daniel Murphy starts to hit again.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eflin in both cash games and tournaments.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7%
2018 14 4.34 3.87 19.7% 8.0% 44.0% 31.0% 20.2%
L14 2 5.30 6.30 14.3% 8.2% 32.4% 40.5% 13.5%

Roark is one of those pitchers that I never start building my lineups with, but will gladly target if I’m stuck and need a player at his price point. Given his recent form, he should fly under the radar tonight in both cash games and tournaments, even though he’s pitching at home against a strikeout-happy Phillies’ offense. The projected lineup for Philadelphia has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is far from a core play tonight, but I may have a share or two in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies got off to a hot start this season, but their bats have cooled off considerably over the last month of play. Tonight they draw a mediocre matchup against Tanner Roark, but are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. On the season, Roark has allowed a .323 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties. With such a low implied run total, there isn’t a lot that stands out here other than Carlos Santana or Rhys Hoskins as a one-off in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.332 0.307 0.156 27.4% 13.8% 23.3% 44.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,200
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.399 0.440 0.235 35.4% 13.3% 28.1% 28.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.331 0.326 0.198 28.3% 8.0% 19.8% 43.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,100
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.323 0.229 36.6% 20.1% 13.7% 36.8% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.311 0.337 0.118 29.0% 6.3% 22.2% 39.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.388 0.373 0.240 33.7% 8.3% 23.6% 47.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 RF $6,500
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.306 0.294 0.160 22.7% 4.6% 17.1% 55.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.264 0.248 0.134 29.7% 3.0% 39.6% 54.1% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,900
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.217 0.161 0.250 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 83.3% P $8,400 P $8,800 P $17,100
Team Averages 0.326 0.312 0.191 30.7% 8.6% 26.4% 48.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals continue to let me down, but I will continue to stack them in tournaments. This lineup is too talented not to right the ship soon and I would rather be early than late when it comes to targeting them in DFS. They draw a decent matchup against Zach Eflin. While he has surpassed all expectations this season, he has allowed a .369 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy all bat from the left side and have good power against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.437 0.254 0.192 51.1% 6.9% 12.1% 42.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Juan Soto LEFT 0.375 0.409 0.164 38.6% 14.1% 23.9% 40.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.390 0.459 0.184 37.0% 10.6% 15.0% 35.6% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.402 0.271 0.281 42.7% 17.4% 22.2% 36.3% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.305 0.296 0.000 10.0% 4.2% 12.5% 25.0% 1B $3,100 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
6 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.334 0.330 0.148 33.3% 9.4% 20.2% 54.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,300
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.308 0.273 0.101 18.3% 9.0% 15.0% 44.3% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $3,000 2B $5,600
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.246 0.161 0.051 21.6% 9.7% 22.1% 45.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $4,600
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.132 0.482 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 38.5% 85.7% P $7,800 P $8,300 P $16,000
Team Averages 0.325 0.326 0.125 29.7% 9.0% 20.2% 45.5%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy (Cash), Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Jose Quintana cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-130 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.282 28.0% 6.7% 26.7% 52.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.379 0.391 44.4% 10.3% 20.0% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.343 40.7% 12.2% 21.6% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.325 32.5% 8.1% 24.7% 48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2%
2018 14 4.32 4.06 22.8% 10.9% 46.9% 37.7% 15.6%
L14 2 4.85 3.27 14.0% 9.3% 54.5% 42.4% 9.1%

Quintana has been all over the map this season. Right when it looks like he’s turning it around, he comes out and gets shelled. It’s a bit strange, as he’s been a consistent pitcher throughout his career. He finds himself in a tough spot tonight, as he takes on the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While there is some strikeout upside in this Reds’ lineup (23% k-rate against southpaws), Quintana is best suited as a tournament play.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana isn’t the safest play in a cash game setting, but he’s viable in tournaments.

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 3.63 3.12 27.3% 8.9% 58.8% 29.7% 22.1%
2018 15 4.17 5.77 22.4% 9.1% 43.7% 38.4% 19.0%
L14 2 4.23 6.55 25.0% 10.4% 23.3% 51.6% 12.9%

Castillo certainly has more talent than his 5.77 ERA would lead you to believe, but his numbers have dipped dramatically from his rookie campaign. In 15 starts this season, he has a 4.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. His ground ball rate is down, which has led to a much higher hard contact rate. While a matchup against the Cubs doesn’t feel like a get right spot, Castillo provides plenty of upside at a price of only $5,800 on DraftKings. The projected lineup for the Cubs has a 23% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo should be avoided in cash games, but he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs racked up plenty of hits last night against Matt Harvey and the Reds’ bullpen, but only managed to put two runs on the board. They draw an exploitable matchup against Luis Castillo, who has really struggled against left-handed hitters this season — .391 xwOBA, 44% hard contact rate, and a 39% ground ball rate. Due to recency bias and to the fact that there are 14 games in the main slate, the Cubs will be criminally under-owned in tournaments. Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber all bat from the left side and all boast a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.366 0.288 0.151 33.5% 11.5% 19.7% 36.1% 3B $4,000 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,000
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.373 0.378 0.160 34.6% 9.4% 9.4% 38.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,300
3 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.353 0.288 0.139 30.2% 15.4% 13.0% 44.8% OF $2,500 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.394 0.389 0.201 34.4% 11.2% 9.8% 36.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.386 0.384 0.298 41.2% 16.3% 25.1% 45.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,000
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.311 0.216 0.156 29.7% 7.7% 18.4% 51.1% C $2,600 C $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
7 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.334 0.328 0.238 41.2% 16.0% 38.7% 32.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.353 0.320 0.280 36.7% 3.9% 27.2% 40.3% 2B $3,900 2B/SS $4,700 2B $9,100
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.071 0.020 0.000 23.1% 0.0% 43.5% 88.9% P $8,200 P $8,600 P $17,200
Team Averages 0.327 0.290 0.180 33.8% 10.2% 22.8% 46.0%

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward (GPP), Anthony Rizzo (GPP), Kyle Schwarber (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward (Cash), Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Kyle Schwarber (Cash), Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds aren’t an offense that I will be looking to stack tonight, but there are some intriguing plays here. On the season, Jose Quintana has allowed a .343 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Duvall all bat from the right side and all boast a .380+ xwOBA against southpaws this season. It doesn’t hurt that the Reds are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.265 0.340 0.037 25.6% 3.5% 5.8% 40.0% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.400 0.371 0.146 41.9% 14.3% 20.4% 54.8% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.360 0.479 0.128 42.4% 15.2% 19.0% 48.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,500 1B $9,100
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.429 0.414 0.288 59.0% 21.2% 19.7% 41.0% 3B $3,900 3B $5,000 3B $10,100
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.301 0.260 0.230 38.9% 2.6% 27.3% 35.8% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $9,100
6 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.380 0.406 0.271 56.1% 16.9% 25.4% 29.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,300
7 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.308 0.363 0.100 35.5% 17.6% 19.6% 43.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 RF $5,800
8 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.052 0.195 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 33.3% 40.0% P $7,300 P $5,800 P $11,100
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.252 0.292 0.148 27.8% 10.3% 36.8% 23.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
Team Averages 0.305 0.347 0.150 38.2% 11.3% 23.0% 39.6%

Elite Plays – Tucker Barnhart (DK), Eugenio Suarez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart (FD), Eugenio Suarez (Cash), Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb Mike Fiers clevelandmlb Shane Bieber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-190 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.344 32.4% 6.2% 17.2% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.536 0.418 57.7% 5.7% 20.0% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.335 35.9% 3.6% 17.4% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.165 0.210 30.0% 0.0% 37.5% 70.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1%
2018 13 4.39 4.09 17.3% 4.8% 39.6% 34.3% 17.6%
L14 2 3.57 2.92 23.5% 3.9% 38.9% 27.8% 22.2%

Fiers is a pitcher that we need to pay careful attention to when it comes to his form. There are certain pitchers that can pop at any time, but Fiers is one of the streakiest starters in baseball and has been for the last few seasons. He comes into tonight’s game in good form, posting a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% in his last two starts. While that’s encouraging, I rarely target pitchers against the Indians and don’t plan to make an exception for Fiers. The projected lineup for Cleveland has a .373 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fiers in both cash games and tournaments.

Shane Bieber
shane-bieber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 3.20 3.97 25.5% 3.9% 47.2% 50.0% 8.3%
L14 1 3.27 1.59 25.9% 3.7% 42.1% 47.4% 10.5%

I don’t know much about Shane, but I already like him more than the other Bieber that comes to mind. This Biebs is making his third career major league start. The first two have gone as planned — 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s looked so good that he’s passed Adam Plutko on the depth chart. Bieber’s numbers were very good in the minors, especially in the control department (less than a 4% walk rate in three straight years). I’m typically slow to target these young pitchers, but it’s hard not to like Bieber here. He’s a large favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he draws an exploitable matchup against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Point per dollar, Bieber is one of my favorite pitchers of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

With interest in Shane Bieber, I will likely be full fading the Tigers’ offense. While this is only his third career major league start, he doesn’t seem phased in the slightest. He has excellent control, which is typically the biggest problem for young pitchers. The one and only batter on my radar here is Leonys Martin. He brings stolen base upside to the table (six this season) and he owns a .428 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.428 0.387 0.197 42.3% 10.7% 20.4% 35.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.328 0.313 0.212 36.6% 12.9% 23.8% 37.4% 3B $3,300 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.368 0.331 0.191 48.5% 4.2% 23.5% 33.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.358 0.301 0.090 42.8% 8.1% 9.7% 39.5% C $2,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,700
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.296 0.322 0.157 44.0% 3.6% 30.9% 38.2% C $2,200 1B/C $3,400 1B $6,400
6 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.343 0.287 0.244 35.4% 10.0% 30.7% 41.5% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.278 0.172 0.066 35.8% 6.1% 20.6% 40.0% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.282 0.318 0.103 24.4% 4.1% 11.5% 44.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.303 0.219 0.169 31.1% 3.9% 27.4% 41.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.332 0.294 0.159 37.9% 7.1% 22.1% 39.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the highest implied run totals on the board. While Mike Fiers has been in good form recently the Indians have one of the best offenses in baseball. On the season, Fiers has allowed a .335+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, each of the first seven batters in this lineup has a .355+ xwOBA and a 38%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, and Lonnie Chisenhall.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.396 0.353 0.251 41.1% 9.2% 21.3% 34.2% SS $5,000 SS $5,400 SS $10,700
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.418 0.312 0.215 44.6% 7.0% 9.0% 44.6% OF $4,300 OF $4,600 LF $9,100
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.420 0.417 0.365 35.2% 16.7% 12.0% 33.3% 3B $5,200 3B $5,600 IF/OF $11,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.374 0.313 0.255 37.6% 7.4% 25.1% 38.3% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $9,400
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.378 0.361 0.189 38.1% 10.2% 21.3% 37.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.358 0.362 0.119 38.5% 8.8% 18.1% 37.9% 2B $3,100 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.355 0.345 0.100 41.9% 11.9% 11.9% 31.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.299 0.437 0.197 40.5% 5.1% 32.1% 35.7% C $3,000 C $3,800 C $7,600
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.355 0.224 0.128 44.8% 3.6% 25.3% 55.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.373 0.347 0.202 40.3% 8.9% 19.6% 38.6%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious