MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-21 02:48:16

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Philadelphia
			Matt Wisler					Aaron Nola
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -165					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.373	13	11.0%	10.7%	SP vs. Left	0.296	5	18.2%	7.0%
SP vs. Right	0.277	8	19.9%	4.5%	SP vs. Right	0.255	9	28.3%	4.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Wisler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$8,100
				FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		14.1
				Pitcher Rating:		59.5	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	4.84	2.93	14.5%	3.2%	9.1%	28.0%	50.0%	35.3%
2016	7	4.57	3.14	16.5%	5.7%	7.4%	35.6%	47.3%	36.5%
2015	19	4.98	4.71	15.1%	8.4%	8.1%	33.6%	43.2%	28.2%

It’s been a while since we have had a full 15-game evening slate, but we have one tonight. Two of the worst offenses in baseball square off in the first game of the night. Wisler hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his 3.14 ERA on the season would suggest. If you dive a bit deeper, you will see that he has a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.5%. While he doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, the matchup is certainly in his favor. The Phillies’ offense is currently ranked 28th in team wOBA and 18th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I prefer his pitching counterpart in this game, but I don’t mind taking a shot or two on Wisler in tournaments.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Nola
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$11,000
				FPPG:		39.8	FPPG:		23.3
				Pitcher Rating:		86.6	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	1.83	2.77	26.9%	3.9%	10.4%	72.2%	11.1%	19.4%
2016	8	2.57	2.89	28.6%	4.4%	10.1%	56.0%	24.6%	20.6%
2015	13	3.66	3.59	21.4%	6.0%	8.6%	47.6%	32.4%	28.8%

Nola is one of my favorite pitching options in the entire slate. He has been tremendous in his first eight starts of the year, posting a 2.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.6% and a walk rate of 4.4%. If you haven’t been paying attention, Nola is the real deal. He draws arguably the best matchup on the board tonight, as he gets to face the Braves at home. On the season, Atlanta is ranked 29th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. I wish Nola was a little cheaper on DraftKings, but he is an elite play in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ organization is a hot mess right now. They fired their manager, they are 10-30 on the season, and they can’t even seem to eat chicken wings without issues. They have the fifth lowest team total on the board, as they square off against Aaron Nola in Citizens Bank Park. Outside of Freddie Freeman in GPPs, the Braves’ offense can be avoided once again.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.286 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.089 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.12 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.428	0.077	0.447	2B	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,300
2	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.344	0.092	0.256	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.381	0.225	0.358	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
4	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.328	0.132	0.156	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
5	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.302	0.184	0.313	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,200
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.297	0.141	0.434	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,200
7	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.213	0.018	0.156	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,000
8	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.175	0.000	0.000	P	$6,200	P	$8,100
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.370	0.232	0.334	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.122	0.273	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have not fared well against right-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom five of the majors in both team wOBA and team ISO. While they are only projected to score 3.88 runs tonight, that is considerably higher than their season average. Matt Wisler has been tough on right-handed hitters, but he has allowed a .373 wOBA and 13 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.289 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.2% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.32 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.137	0.406	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.293	0.073	0.287	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,800
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.190	0.283	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.327	0.240	0.185	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,500
5	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.290	0.114	0.281	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.266	0.117	0.228	C	$2,400	C	$2,500
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.318	0.114	0.405	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
8	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.129	0.031	0.276	P	$9,000	P	$11,000
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.250	0.113	0.319	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.285	0.125	0.297	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Pittsburgh
			Eddie Butler					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -230					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.437	10	10.6%	13.7%	SP vs. Left	0.271	6	24.8%	6.1%
SP vs. Right	0.346	6	16.4%	6.4%	SP vs. Right	0.278	7	23.4%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eddie Butler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$5,200
				FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		12.2
				Pitcher Rating:		25.2	Pitcher Rank:		29
L14 Days	2	3.69	3.27	20.0%	4.4%	7.3%	41.2%	26.5%	47.1%
2016	3	3.48	4.74	20.8%	3.9%	8.3%	45.6%	29.8%	42.1%
2015	16	5.38	5.90	11.9%	11.4%	6.9%	50.0%	27.9%	26.8%

Butler has pitched better than his ERA leads us to believe, but it’s tough to trust any starter from the Rockies. We saw what happened to Jon Gray last night against the Cardinals. Butler does have a strikeout rate above 20% this season, but I’m not sure that is sustainable with such a low swinging strike rate. As one of the largest underdogs on the schedule tonight, Butler should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gerrit Cole
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$8,700
				FPPG:		35.3	FPPG:		18.5
				Pitcher Rating:		81.9	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	3.07	1.29	26.4%	3.8%	8.5%	44.4%	44.4%	24.3%
2016	7	3.75	3.05	23.1%	7.1%	8.7%	42.9%	36.6%	31.6%
2015	32	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Cole has been the forgotten ace of the season, at least in DFS. He typically takes the mound on the same days as the best pitchers in baseball, which has led to him getting overlooked. He comes into tonight’s game as the fourth highest rated pitcher and he is arguably the best play (dollar for dollar) on DraftKings. In his first seven starts of the season, he has a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. The Rockies’ lineup looks scary on paper, but they aren’t nearly as effective on the road as they are in Coors Field.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies spoiled a lot of lineups last night by knocking Michael Wacha out after only four innings. While their offense is filled with talented, young players, they aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They currently have the lowest team total of all 30 teams in action tonight. Colorado should be avoided against Gerrit Cole, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.05 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.75 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.354	0.174	0.379	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,600
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.362	0.303	0.387	SS	$4,000	SS	$3,800
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.385	0.303	0.364	3B	$4,200	3B	$3,800
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.406	0.302	0.165	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.323	0.166	0.320	1B	$3,200	1B	$2,800
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.335	0.166	0.303	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
7	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.331	0.108	0.348	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,900
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.268	0.071	0.275	C	$2,400	C	$2,300
9	Eddie Butler	RIGHT	0.038	0.000	0.000	P	$5,100	P	$5,200
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.177	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t hit a ton of home runs, but they have the fifth highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Eddie Butler, who has allowed a .437 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .346 wOBA to right-handed hitters. With the eighth highest team total tonight, there are a number of viable fantasy options in this Pirates’ lineup.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.352	0.168	0.413	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.368	0.200	0.360	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.339	0.149	0.431	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000
4	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.366	0.194	0.431	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,900
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.157	0.350	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.327	0.084	0.243	C	$2,900	C	$3,300
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.106	0.308	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,700
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.264	0.064	0.279	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.000	P	$10,200	P	$8,700
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.125	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Detroit
			Matt Andriese					Anibal Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -110					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.306	5	15.7%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.313	15	22.6%	10.4%
SP vs. Right	0.273	3	18.1%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.367	22	18.8%	6.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Andriese
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$8,500
				FPPG:		46.5	FPPG:		28.5
				Pitcher Rating:		47.5	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	4.58	0.56	14.8%	5.6%	8.1%	45.2%	40.5%	28.6%
2016	2	4.58	0.56	14.8%	5.6%	8.1%	45.2%	40.5%	28.6%
2015	8	4.02	4.11	17.4%	6.4%	8.6%	48.1%	34.8%	32.9%

Andriese may have a 0.56 ERA in his first two starts of the season, but it’s hard to trust those numbers. In his last ten major league starts, he has a SIERA well over 4.00 with a strikeout rate under 17%. There will be times when we can give him a harder look in DFS, but tonight is not one of them. He draws a difficult matchup against the Tigers in Comerica Park and can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Anibal Sanchez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,800
				FPPG:		24.6	FPPG:		11.0
				Pitcher Rating:		59.0	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	2	5.63	6.00	11.3%	9.4%	4.5%	39.0%	43.9%	26.2%
2016	8	4.82	5.91	20.2%	12.4%	8.4%	40.0%	42.4%	29.7%
2015	25	4.03	4.99	20.9%	7.4%	9.3%	40.0%	39.1%	27.1%

Sanchez is having a season to forget. In eight starts, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.2% and a walk rate of 12.4%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed 37 home runs in his last 33 starts. The Rays may not be the best offense in baseball, but they do have the fourth highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Until he can string together a few quality starts, Sanchez should be avoided in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed a .313 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .367 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Plus, as I mentioned above, Sanchez has given up 37 home runs in his last 33 starts.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.192 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.4% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.317	0.126	0.365	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,300
2	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.257	0.375	0.330	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,300
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.307	0.159	0.371	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,800
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.319	0.201	0.428	1B	$3,400	1B/2B	$3,700
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.319	0.181	0.364	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.306	0.173	0.393	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,000
7	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.287	0.120	0.396	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.328	0.186	0.299	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.322	0.180	0.201	C	$2,000	C	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.189	0.350	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Taylor Motter, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

The Tigers haven’t gotten off to the best start this season, but they are ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. They are projected to score 4.31 runs tonight, which gives them the seventh highest total on the board. Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Nick Castellanos all come into the game red hot with at least a .380 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.340	0.147	0.493	2B	$4,400	2B	$5,200
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.364	0.241	0.454	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.402	0.194	0.418	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.296	0.139	0.316	C	$3,100	1B	$3,800
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.315	0.167	0.383	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.342	0.204	0.222	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.309	0.092	0.527	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.327	0.238	0.256	C	$2,500	C	$3,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.283	0.056	0.190	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.164	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Boston
			Corey Kluber					Clay Buchholz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -115					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.325	13	24.3%	6.4%	SP vs. Left	0.303	6	22.5%	6.0%
SP vs. Right	0.237	13	30.1%	4.0%	SP vs. Right	0.315	8	18.9%	6.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Corey Kluber
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$9,000
				FPPG:		32.8	FPPG:		18.5
				Pitcher Rating:		64.8	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	4.65	8.68	21.7%	13.0%	9.2%	42.9%	32.1%	37.9%
2016	8	3.37	4.30	24.5%	6.1%	12.6%	50.0%	33.1%	29.7%
2015	32	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Kluber is coming off of two straight disappointing starts. A third could be on the horizon, as he draws one of the toughest matchups in all of baseball. The Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored per game and in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. If this game was being played in Cleveland, it would be a different story, but I want no part of a pitcher facing the Red Sox in Fenway Park right now.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Clay Buchholz
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,300
				FPPG:		20.5	FPPG:		8.9
				Pitcher Rating:		55.0	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	2	5.48	7.36	14.0%	10.0%	10.9%	28.9%	44.7%	36.8%
2016	8	5.04	6.11	16.1%	10.1%	9.0%	37.8%	41.3%	31.0%
2015	18	3.35	3.26	22.8%	4.9%	10.6%	48.3%	30.5%	23.7%

Buchholz looks like a completely different pitcher this season. His SIERA, walk rate, fly ball rate, and hard hit contact rate are all up, while his strikeout rate is way down. That’s an awful combination for a pitcher. The Indians are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching, but they should be able to knock Buchholz around a bit tonight in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are coming off of a big offensive series against the Reds. They will look to keep their hot streak alive tonight against Clay Buchholz in Fenway Park. The Indians currently have the second highest team total on the board and their batters make strong plays in both cash games and GPPs. Over the last two seasons, Buchholz has allowed a .303+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.315	0.155	0.340	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.389	0.170	0.374	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,400
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.338	0.139	0.390	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,100
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.289	0.161	0.359	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,200
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.339	0.204	0.341	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800
6	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.286	0.190	0.271	C	$2,700	C	$3,500
7	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.309	0.128	0.382	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,300
8	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.294	0.128	0.332	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900
9	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.291	0.121	0.176	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.155	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

The Red Sox didn’t have the best offensive series in Kansas City, but not many teams do. Even though they draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber tonight, they still have the sixth highest team total on the board. I won’t be targeting any Red Sox hitters in cash games, but Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, and Travis Shaw all have decent numbers against Kluber in the last couple of seasons.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.363 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.85 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.346	0.185	0.375	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.156	0.320	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,800
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.332	0.108	0.453	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,100
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.422	0.333	0.418	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,600
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.375	0.210	0.454	3B	$3,600	1B/3B	$3,800
6	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.312	0.092	0.390	SS	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,200
7	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.280	0.127	0.317	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
8	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.306	0.105	0.205	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700
9	Ryan Hanigan	RIGHT	0.271	0.076	0.195	C	$2,400	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.333	0.155	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Travis Shaw

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					NY Mets
			Wily Peralta					Steven Matz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -220					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.380	11	10.6%	7.3%	SP vs. Left	0.340	0	21.8%	12.8%
SP vs. Right	0.389	10	14.6%	9.0%	SP vs. Right	0.264	6	24.3%	3.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Wily Peralta
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,400
				FPPG:		15.3	FPPG:		4.2
				Pitcher Rating:		30.1	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	5.07	6.75	14.0%	10.0%	2.1%	44.7%	28.9%	39.5%
2016	8	5.06	7.30	12.8%	9.2%	6.3%	50.0%	30.6%	36.9%
2015	20	4.75	4.72	12.6%	7.7%	6.9%	51.6%	28.4%	32.6%

Peralta can’t seem to find the strike zone. I watched his entire start against the Padres and there were times when he wasn’t even close. Taking a pitcher with bad command is always a risky proposition in DFS, especially when it isn’t accompanied with a high strikeout rate. Peralta is one of the largest underdogs on the board and he can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Matz
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$10,500
				FPPG:		39.3	FPPG:		20.0
				Pitcher Rating:		88.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	1	3.14	3.00	20.0%	4.0%	11.2%	61.1%	22.2%	26.3%
2016	6	3.04	2.86	24.5%	5.6%	8.1%	56.5%	21.7%	23.5%
2015	6	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Matz has one of the highest K% to SS% ratios of any pitcher in baseball. He doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses, but he throws a ton of strikes, which gets him into favorable counts. It’s hard to find anything wrong with his numbers from this season. In six starts, he has a 3.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.5%. He grades out as the second best pitching option overall and he is considerably cheaper than Jake Arrieta. The only concern with Matz is a potential pitch count. Manager Terry Collins said that he is going to be conservative with Matz, after he hurt his forearm. He should still pitch well tonight, but he may not have as much upside as Nola or Cole.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are ranked at or below the league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s contest with the third lowest total of the 30 teams in action. I will be avoided the Brewers’ offense completely, as Steven Matz has held right-handed hitters to a .264 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.127 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.4% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.32 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.06 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.190	0.102	0.206	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,200
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.370	0.163	0.352	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,200
3	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.261	0.082	0.431	C	$3,700	C	$3,300
4	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.282	0.133	0.428	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.320	0.209	0.255	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
6	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.350	0.000	0.253	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,000
7	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.276	0.168	0.291	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,100
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.222	0.000	0.346	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500
9	Wily Peralta	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$4,400
	Team Averages	—	0.263	0.095	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets have the fourth highest team total on the board tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Wily Peralta, who has been downright awful so far this season. Over the last two years, Peralta has allowed a .380 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also given up 21 home runs in his last 28 starts. The Mets’ offense has been ice cold lately, but they should turn things around in this series.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.1% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.373	0.223	0.240	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
2	David Wright	RIGHT	0.341	0.146	0.270	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,900
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.393	0.276	0.287	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.384	0.276	0.409	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.355	0.235	0.244	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.336	0.187	0.272	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700
7	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.322	0.162	0.281	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.269	0.066	0.282	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.217	0.045	0.418	P	$9,800	P	$10,500
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.180	0.300	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 20th

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Taylor Motter, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Travis Shaw

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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