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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-28 20:01:10

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Minnesota
whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez minnesotamlb Jose Berrios
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-155 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.347 33.7% 1.27 17.7% 32.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.317 36.9% 1.22 26.1% 36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.354 33.6% 1.20 20.1% 34.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.298 32.2% 1.21 24.0% 44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9% 94.5 9.0%
2018 31 4.87 3.94 18.9% 9.1% 33.5% 33.6% 20.7% 95.5 9.3%
L14 2 3.15 0.64 26.9% 1.9% 37.8% 18.9% 27.0% 95.6 10.4%

Lopez has looked sharp in his last two starts, but he’s a tough sell when we look at his numbers as a whole. In 31 starts this season, he has a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a hard contact rate (34%) that matches his ground ball rate. Options are limited in the early two-game slate, but I would rank Lopez third of the four starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $17,500
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.29 3.89 22.6% 7.8% 39.0% 27.9% 20.4% 93.5 9.4%
2018 31 3.80 3.93 25.1% 7.4% 40.9% 34.5% 19.1% 93.1 11.1%
L14 2 3.52 5.40 32.7% 11.5% 37.0% 35.7% 17.9% 93.6 11.9%

Berrios has made 31 starts this season, posting a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He hasn’t been in great form if you look at his ERA or his walk rate, but the 33% k-rate in his last two starts is appealing. He’s a pitcher with severe home/road splits, so he sees a major boost playing in Minnesota. He also sees a boost in this matchup, as the White Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .317 with a strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is the number one pitching option in the early slate and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw the worst matchup of the early slate. Jose Berrios has been dominant at home, he has a high strikeout rate (25%), and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA. If you are playing in tournaments and are looking for leverage on the field, you can play a White Sox hitter against Berrios. He’s going to be so highly owned that a couple runs allowed isn’t going to hurt your lineups and you can potentially target the batter that was responsible for the runs. For cash games, move on to the next offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.305 0.158 28.3% 7.2% 18.7% 47.0% 3B $2,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,400
2 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.354 0.181 30.3% 9.7% 19.0% 40.8% C $2,200 C $3,600 C $7,200
3 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.317 0.206 32.6% 3.7% 26.1% 46.0% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.339 0.290 37.4% 5.5% 32.0% 42.1% OF $2,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.334 0.193 37.8% 10.8% 34.0% 40.5% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,500
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.352 0.170 39.5% 3.4% 26.5% 40.7% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,700
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.271 0.160 29.7% 5.1% 25.8% 47.8% SS $2,500 SS $3,600 SS $7,600
8 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.326 0.188 37.4% 10.1% 33.2% 33.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,500
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.252 0.107 28.3% 4.0% 28.8% 40.9% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
Team Averages 0.317 0.184 33.5% 6.6% 27.1% 42.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Omar Narvaez (DK), Daniel Palka (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The Twins draw an exploitable matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .345+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Twins are cheap, they are stackable, and they have upside. Four of the first six hitters in their projected lineup have an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching this season — Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Jake Cave, and Max Kepler.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.381 0.104 45.8% 10.0% 15.3% 51.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,300
2 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.327 0.133 30.7% 9.3% 16.2% 39.3% SS $3,400 SS $4,600 SS $8,900
3 Jake Cave LEFT 0.366 0.219 38.5% 5.5% 31.7% 44.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,500
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.318 0.110 33.5% 10.5% 17.7% 39.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,500
5 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.319 0.229 37.7% 4.6% 39.2% 37.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $8,200
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.328 0.183 36.4% 12.6% 14.0% 39.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.278 0.065 29.2% 9.1% 20.2% 50.6% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,700
8 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.314 0.148 40.5% 5.9% 21.9% 34.3% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,900
9 Willians Astudillo RIGHT 0.333 0.196 27.5% 1.9% 0.0% 39.2% C $2,700 3B/C $3,500 C $7,300
Team Averages 0.329 0.154 35.5% 7.7% 19.6% 41.7%

Elite Plays – Jorge Polanco, Jake Cave, Robbie Grossman, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Tyler Austin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.330 30.6% 0.98 25.6% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.290 29.6% 0.99 23.3% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.318 25.9% 1.06 15.1% 55.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.332 31.0% 1.08 17.9% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 23 4.70 5.11 17.6% 8.2% 47.2% 30.8% 19.5% 89.7 7.4%
2018 7 4.57 4.08 20.8% 10.7% 50.0% 28.0% 20.6% 89.1 8.3%
L14 3 3.38 4.15 25.4% 4.2% 44.9% 38.0% 12.0% 89.8 11.5%

Wainwright has actually pitched pretty well since coming back from injury. In his last three starts, he owns a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. While the form is nice, I have a hard time trusting an aging pitcher on the road in a tough matchup. The Cubs’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .327 with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching. The lefties from Chicago will make it tough on Wainwright today.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wainwright in all formats.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $8,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.08 3.03 21.6% 7.0% 50.1% 30.4% 22.5% 85.8 8.3%
2018 32 3.97 3.49 20.4% 5.4% 46.4% 30.4% 22.6% 86.9 9.3%
L14 3 3.39 1.69 22.8% 2.5% 46.6% 39.7% 13.8% 87.4 11.8%

Hendricks had subpar numbers in the first half of the season, but has picked it up in the second half. In his last three starts, he has a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 3%. His ability to limit hard contact and induce ground balls against right-handed hitters should help in a matchup against the Cardinals, who have seven righties in their lineup today. We do have a 10 MPH wind again today, but it’s blowing straight across the field. It’s potentially a small boost for lefties.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is my favorite SP2 in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are sizable underdog on the road in a fairly difficult matchup. Kyle Hendricks has an average strikeout rate and on the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .335 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Outside of Marcell Ozuna (7-for-19 with two home runs), the Cardinals have struggled in this matchup in the past. I’m fine rolling out Ozuna or Matt Carpenter in tournaments, but will not have a ton of exposure to this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.424 0.282 48.4% 15.1% 23.4% 21.9% 1B $4,000 1B/3B $5,000 N/A N/A
2 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.390 0.157 40.3% 7.6% 18.0% 47.5% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.358 0.209 39.7% 6.1% 23.9% 33.3% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.354 0.136 44.7% 5.6% 18.3% 47.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.312 0.135 34.4% 10.8% 20.5% 36.5% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.357 0.171 44.9% 6.0% 13.0% 40.5% C $2,900 C $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.320 0.160 29.4% 7.3% 15.2% 44.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.284 0.134 35.8% 6.9% 30.9% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.120 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 44.4% 20.0% P $7,500 P $6,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.324 0.154 39.7% 7.3% 23.1% 37.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP), Marcell Ozuna (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Twins and Cubs are the two offenses that I want the most exposure to in this early slate. With the wind blowing across the field (left to right), it could give a small boost to left-handed hitters. Their matchup against Adam Wainwright also favors the lefties, as he has allowed a .330 xwOBA to batters from that side of the plate this season. Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward all boast a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.382 0.203 29.7% 5.9% 10.1% 32.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.360 0.159 34.7% 12.2% 12.8% 47.0% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.402 0.212 34.9% 12.3% 10.0% 36.9% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.333 0.278 36.4% 3.6% 27.5% 46.0% SS $3,900 2B/SS $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.338 0.135 29.0% 9.0% 10.9% 45.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.356 0.138 28.9% 10.8% 21.1% 36.7% 3B $3,700 3B/OF $4,500 N/A N/A
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.296 0.127 28.2% 8.1% 20.5% 54.8% C $2,600 C $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.124 0.022 11.5% 2.0% 47.1% 63.6% P $9,300 P $8,800 N/A N/A
9 David Bote RIGHT 0.348 0.145 35.6% 7.4% 27.9% 56.3% 3B $2,400 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.327 0.158 29.9% 7.9% 20.9% 46.5%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez (Cash), Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.305 35.2% 1.08 26.5% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.440 0.151 0.0% 0.00 50.0% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.276 35.2% 0.62 26.6% 44.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.623 0.623 100.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,900
Salary Rank: 6 of 26 Salary Rank: 7 of 26 Salary Rank: 6 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8% 95.3 9.4%
2018 30 3.86 2.88 26.6% 9.4% 42.9% 35.2% 18.5% 96.4 10.0%
L14 3 5.03 3.86 17.1% 9.8% 44.1% 39.0% 18.6% 96.2 9.0%

I left off the Pirates and Reds game because it isn’t included in the early or the main slate. We kick off tonight’s 13-game slate with the Braves and the Phillies. Atlanta has their division wrapped up, but are still fighting for home-field advantage in the NLDS. Foltynewicz has had a breakout year, posting a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .315 with a k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is viable in tournaments, but we have a number of aces taking the mound tonight.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 26 Salary Rank: 25 of 26 Salary Rank: 23 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.72 4.71 20.5% 9.2% 37.6% 32.3% 15.3% 90.4 8.8%
2018 0 2.62 9.00 27.3% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 37.5% 91.2 16.7%

Eickhoff has made eight minor league starts and two major league relief appearances this season. His numbers in 2017 were mediocre at best and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was on a pitch count tonight against the Braves. On paper, this looks like a favorable matchup, but there are too many unknowns with Eickhoff to trust him in any DFS format.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eickhoff in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have an easy matchup to break down. In his career, Jerad Eickhoff has allowed a .358 wOBA to lefties, while holding righties to a .272 wOBA. Atlanta sees a significant ballpark boost playing in Philadelphia and they are small favorites in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Braves tonight, but Freddie Freeman stands out as an elite one-off target. He owns a .413 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.386 0.262 47.4% 8.5% 26.3% 41.0% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 LF $9,600
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.305 0.136 32.2% 7.9% 12.6% 42.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $9,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.413 0.182 44.7% 11.2% 17.4% 34.5% 1B $4,300 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.385 0.150 41.0% 10.9% 9.0% 42.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 RF $8,300
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.314 0.166 34.9% 10.8% 20.4% 45.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.314 0.089 49.2% 6.5% 26.4% 40.6% C $2,000 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.299 0.187 33.2% 6.2% 17.2% 36.2% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,300
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.274 0.223 33.3% 6.3% 28.9% 48.3% SS $2,800 3B/OF $4,300 SS $8,100
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.054 0.022 12.5% 0.0% 66.7% 63.6% P $9,600 P $9,000 P $17,900
Team Averages 0.305 0.157 36.5% 7.6% 25.0% 43.9%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have nothing to play for at this point, so don’t be surprised to see a few members of their B-team in the lineup tonight. While they are playing at home, they draw a difficult matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.310 0.127 22.4% 13.4% 22.8% 40.8% 2B $2,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.370 0.176 33.9% 17.7% 15.0% 38.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.301 0.182 26.0% 7.5% 19.9% 40.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.369 0.281 36.5% 11.1% 24.5% 28.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.343 0.162 38.9% 8.1% 19.2% 56.9% C $3,200 C $3,900 C $7,700
6 Dylan Cozens LEFT 0.268 0.158 66.7% 13.6% 59.1% 66.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,700
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.299 0.113 26.4% 5.1% 22.2% 37.7% SS $2,400 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT P $5,500 P $5,700 P $10,800
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.259 0.114 25.9% 7.8% 20.8% 53.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
Team Averages 0.315 0.164 34.6% 10.5% 25.4% 45.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Baltimore
houstonmlb Gerrit Cole baltimoremlb David Hess
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-210 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.235 0.245 29.0% 0.66 42.3% 35.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.361 33.3% 2.50 14.6% 38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.321 33.7% 1.09 28.4% 36.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.347 30.4% 1.37 18.3% 29.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $12,800 Salary: $24,700
Salary Rank: 1 of 26 Salary Rank: 1 of 26 Salary Rank: 1 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.97 4.26 23.1% 6.5% 45.8% 31.3% 23.9% 96.0 9.5%
2018 31 2.87 2.92 35.1% 8.1% 36.1% 31.8% 18.9% 96.5 14.1%
L14 2 2.35 3.75 42.0% 8.0% 24.0% 36.0% 16.0% 96.5 20.4%

Cole was expected to start last night’s game, but it was rained out. Luckily for everyone that was planning to play him, the game was postponed a half-hour before lineups locked. On the season, Cole owns a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Orioles’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .305 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. If you can find the salary cap to get up to him, Cole deserves to be considered the number one pitching option tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an elite play in all formats.

David Hess
david-hess-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 19 of 26 Salary Rank: 24 of 26 Salary Rank: 20 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 18 5.07 5.14 16.4% 8.2% 34.0% 32.0% 18.7% 92.0 8.4%
L14 2 4.28 4.82 27.3% 11.4% 23.1% 38.5% 15.4% 92.4 9.6%

Hess is one of the most hittable pitchers taking the mound tonight. In 18 starts, he owns a 5.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate that is nearly as high as his ground ball rate. To make matters worse, he is facing a talented Astros’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hess in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards, which gives a significant boost to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. They also draw a favorable matchup against David Hess, who has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Even though the Astros are locked into their playoff seeding, a full stack is still viable given the matchup and the ballpark. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Marwin Gonzalez are all elite plays at their respective positions, as they all boast a .340+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.345 0.156 31.9% 10.4% 18.2% 50.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.354 0.147 31.9% 9.3% 14.1% 47.9% 2B $4,400 2B $4,900 2B $8,900
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.403 0.243 36.7% 14.0% 11.9% 35.1% 3B $4,500 3B/SS $5,000 3B $9,700
4 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.167 37.1% 11.3% 23.8% 43.4% OF $3,300 OF/SS $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.283 0.123 29.9% 3.4% 10.7% 49.1% 1B $3,700 1B $5,200 1B $10,000
6 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.312 0.177 28.3% 10.1% 23.4% 45.3% SS $3,800 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
7 Tyler White RIGHT 0.342 0.278 33.9% 8.9% 16.4% 43.1% 1B $3,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
8 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.306 0.105 31.2% 11.5% 16.1% 35.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,200
9 Brian McCann LEFT 0.296 0.111 26.8% 8.5% 16.3% 23.2% C $2,800 C $3,800 C $7,700
Team Averages 0.331 0.167 32.0% 9.7% 16.8% 41.4%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the worst offenses in baseball and one of the worst matchups on the schedule. That’s a brutal combination and one that I want no part of in a 13-game slate. Gerrit Cole has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.311 0.200 28.3% 7.0% 12.2% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.288 0.116 29.3% 8.1% 26.1% 58.4% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.376 0.197 38.2% 7.2% 23.8% 48.8% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,300
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.326 0.151 31.8% 4.5% 17.3% 43.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.291 0.124 36.1% 8.0% 36.7% 38.5% 1B $2,000 1B $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
6 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.328 0.391 35.0% 7.4% 14.8% 30.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 LF $6,700
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.306 0.130 32.8% 5.8% 24.6% 46.0% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,700
8 Steve Wilkerson SWITCH 0.251 0.100 17.7% 13.0% 13.0% 47.1% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,600 2B $4,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.265 0.124 26.8% 3.4% 25.1% 44.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.305 0.170 30.7% 7.2% 21.5% 45.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Miami NY Mets
miamimlb Jose Urena nymetsmlb Corey Oswalt
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-130 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.346 40.9% 1.41 17.1% 47.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.349 29.4% 1.30 12.0% 38.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.297 35.0% 0.57 20.4% 52.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.383 0.354 37.3% 2.73 18.4% 46.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 26 Salary Rank: 14 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.4% 95.5 8.2%
2018 30 4.30 4.07 18.6% 6.8% 49.6% 38.3% 15.2% 95.8 9.0%
L14 3 4.98 1.06 16.7% 7.6% 36.7% 28.6% 18.4% 96.1 9.7%

Urena has made 30 mediocre starts this season, posting a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s not a terrible pitcher, but that’s not a ringing endorsement when it comes to DFS. He has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Mets. They have five lefties in their projected lineup tonight, four of which own an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Corey Oswalt
corey-oswalt-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 22 of 26 Salary Rank: 26 of 26 Salary Rank: 21 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 11 4.74 6.08 15.5% 6.4% 42.6% 33.7% 19.8% 90.4 7.1%
L14 2 4.71 2.35 20.0% 8.6% 33.3% 37.5% 25.0% 90.7 6.7%

Oswalt isn’t a talented pitcher, but he’s dirt cheap and he’s facing the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s not my favorite value play of the slate, but he’s certainly viable if you are building multiple tournament lineups. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .281 with a strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching. When a bad pitcher faces a bad offense, something has to give.

Quick Breakdown: Oswalt is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw a favorable matchup against Corey Oswalt, but they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The fact that they are the Marlins doesn’t help the issue. With that said, Oswalt has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. In the largest of fields, J.T. Realmuto and Peter O’Brien are worth a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JT Riddle LEFT 0.312 0.164 32.6% 7.3% 19.1% 47.5% SS $2,500 SS $3,200 SS $6,700
2 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.289 0.090 27.0% 3.7% 14.7% 52.0% SS $2,200 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.372 0.223 38.7% 7.7% 18.7% 40.8% C $3,200 C $4,300 C $8,000
4 Peter O’Brien RIGHT 0.370 0.273 40.9% 10.5% 31.6% 45.5% 1B $2,600 1B $3,700 LF $7,300
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.339 0.114 37.3% 7.9% 19.3% 53.8% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.281 0.137 39.4% 3.3% 31.9% 52.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.316 0.173 32.8% 2.4% 16.9% 43.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,300
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.182 0.009 21.4% 3.4% 24.8% 52.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 CF $5,600
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.064 0.038 40.0% 0.0% 64.3% 66.7% P $7,900 P $7,700 P $15,700
Team Averages 0.281 0.136 34.5% 5.1% 26.8% 50.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (GPP), Peter O’Brien (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets have an easy matchup to break down. Jose Urena has held right-handed hitters to a .297 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate, but has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to lefties. This plays right into the hands of a left-handed heavy Mets’ offense. Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Nimmo all own an xwOBA of at least .325 against right-handed pitching and should all fly under the radar in terms of ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.287 0.123 26.7% 4.7% 19.0% 49.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,500
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.325 0.139 28.7% 5.4% 10.8% 37.1% 2B $3,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,400
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.346 0.190 36.5% 15.0% 22.7% 40.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,900 LF $8,800
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.376 0.155 34.2% 12.7% 19.0% 29.2% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,700 RF $7,200
5 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.376 0.250 36.4% 15.9% 23.5% 41.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $9,100
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.264 0.188 33.3% 2.6% 34.5% 34.7% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.338 0.207 43.6% 9.1% 22.3% 33.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,500
8 Tomas Nido RIGHT 0.244 0.078 34.1% 3.0% 30.3% 50.0% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,600
9 Corey Oswalt RIGHT 0.056 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 80.0% P $5,800 P $5,600 P $11,300
Team Averages 0.290 0.148 30.4% 7.6% 26.9% 44.1%

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto (GPP), Brandon Nimmo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash), Brandon Nimmo (Cash), Jeff McNeil

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious