MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-07 19:43:00

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
Chicago Cubs								Washington
			Jon Lester						Joe Ross
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-125						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.381	36.0%	1.91	20.7%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.355	31.8%	1.21	18.0%	36.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:		$18,600
	Salary Rank:			11 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	27	4.74	3.67	18.6%	8.8%	36.7%	32.7%	16.3%	91.0	8.4%
	L14	2	5.61	3.09	12.5%	8.3%	32.4%	18.4%	21.1%	91.3	9.3%

I’ve said this time and time again, Lester has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. Oh, and happy Friday everyone. Once again, be sure to check out RotoAcademy before NFL Sunday, as we have some great courses available to improve your DFS game. Everything from cash game strategy, tournament strategy, positional strategy, and much more. Back to baseball, I hope that I can be as lucky as Lester this football season. I’d love to run hot all year. If we ignore the name and look at his numbers — 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%, Lester becomes an easy fade against the Nationals.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lester in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Joe Ross
!(align-ct){height:130px;}https://s3.amazonaws.com/rical-images/joseph-ross-300×200.jpg	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:			$4,900	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:			27 of 28	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2017	13	4.28	5.01	21.1%	6.2%	37.5%	36.9%	19.3%	91.4	10.1%

Ross has been in and out of the majors over the last three years. Tonight will mark his season debut, as he has worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. In 13 starts in 2017, he posted a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 7%. He could be a nice value play moving forward, but there are too many red flags in his first start back. He could be rusty, he’ll likely be on a pitch count, and he draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ross in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are slight favorites in this game and the total is set at 9.0 runs, so there could be some sneaky upside for both of these offenses. As mentioned above, this is the first start of the season for Joe Ross, as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. If we look at his career splits, he has allowed a .364 wOBA to lefties, while holding righties to a .268 wOBA. Those are some serious splits that favor lefties, which brings Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, and Ian Happ into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.389	0.181	27.8%	6.3%	8.4%	34.6%	2B	$4,200	1B/2B	$4,500	2B	$7,600
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.336	0.272	36.5%	3.4%	26.6%	46.3%	SS	$4,100	2B/SS	$5,100	2B	$9,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.404	0.224	35.7%	12.1%	9.9%	37.5%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,300	1B	$8,600
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.362	0.177	35.4%	12.8%	13.4%	44.5%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$7,400
5	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.355	0.143	30.0%	11.0%	20.3%	39.0%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,200
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.354	0.197	41.3%	16.8%	35.4%	37.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.1%	7.9%	20.9%	53.2%	C	$2,800	C	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.281	0.081	21.2%	0.0%	23.3%	70.4%	P	$8,500	P	$7,800	P	$18,600
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.375	0.176	36.4%	7.9%	25.7%	54.5%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.350	0.177	32.6%	8.7%	20.4%	46.4%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals should also fly under the radar tonight. This ballpark tends to suppress ownership for hitters and Jon Lester still carries a lot of name value. His talent level has declined over the last couple of seasons and based on the advanced numbers, he has become a very hittable pitcher. On the season, he has allowed a .381 xwOBA to lefties and a .355 xwOBA to righties. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are both borderline elite plays at their respective positions, while Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman are both viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.375	0.143	36.4%	10.3%	12.2%	40.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,800
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.468	0.238	47.6%	10.5%	17.5%	20.7%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.382	0.204	40.0%	16.6%	25.1%	45.0%	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,600
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.469	0.339	49.0%	14.3%	15.7%	40.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$7,300
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.354	0.241	36.7%	10.8%	24.7%	61.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,700
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.239	0.135	38.5%	5.8%	39.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$5,500
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.233	0.086	22.0%	6.8%	25.0%	38.6%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
8	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.251	0.039	23.1%	10.2%	22.0%	29.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
9				1.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$6,200	SS	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.346	0.269	32.6%	9.5%	20.2%	36.2%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Miami								Pittsburgh
			Dan Straily							Chris Archer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-200							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.375	45.7%	1.39	19.5%	31.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.346	40.2%	1.36	21.9%	44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.360	48.0%	1.52	18.5%	34.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.325	40.5%	0.88	26.0%	46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	4.43	4.26	22.1%	7.8%	34.2%	32.6%	19.1%	90.3	12.2%
	2018	22	4.95	4.13	19.0%	10.4%	33.0%	46.8%	14.2%	90.4	10.0%
	L14	2	4.98	0.64	16.0%	4.0%	28.2%	62.5%	12.5%	90.1	10.9%

I talk about this often here in the Grind Down. Every once in a while, numbers can be misleading. On paper, Straily doesn’t look like he offers much appeal for DFS. In his 22 starts this season, he has a 4.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a hard contact rate of 47%. What the numbers don’t tell us is how he consistently pitches deep into games. I compare him often to James Shields. They are both subpar pitchers, but they can rack up fantasy points when they pitch six or seven innings each time out. Anyway, all of that and I will be avoiding Straily against the low-strikeout Padres.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Straily in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 28	Salary Rank:			15 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%	95.5	13.4%
	2018	23	3.81	4.56	24.2%	7.6%	45.3%	40.4%	15.9%	94.7	13.0%
	L14	3	3.90	5.14	21.7%	6.7%	46.5%	44.2%	14.0%	95.0	10.8%

Archer hasn’t been able to get anything going this season. His advanced statistics are still solid — 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%, but he’s yet to have that dominant outing that he’s shown so often in the past. This is arguably his best matchup in months, as he gets to square off against the Marlins at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .315 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is cheap and offers plenty of upside in this matchup. He’s viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board tonight. They have been a pesky offense at times this season, but not one that we’ve liked to target for DFS. They draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer, who has an above-average strikeout rate and who has held right-handed hitters to a .325 xwOBA. Rafael Ortega and Derek Dietrich are the top plays here, but they are easy fades in a 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.336	0.049	36.4%	7.6%	9.1%	44.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.328	0.124	36.4%	6.9%	18.8%	49.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.370	0.218	39.2%	6.9%	17.5%	42.4%	C	$3,400	C	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.325	0.151	37.5%	6.3%	23.2%	39.3%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.354	0.120	38.9%	7.7%	17.0%	53.1%	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.294	0.102	27.7%	3.6%	13.7%	52.1%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.280	0.140	41.6%	3.6%	32.3%	53.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Dean	RIGHT	0.332	0.231	45.2%	2.5%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.217	0.045	37.5%	17.9%	50.0%	57.1%	P	$6,600	P	$6,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.315	0.131	37.8%	7.0%	22.4%	48.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Even though this game has a low total, the Pirates are large favorites and actually have a fairly high implied run total. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .360+ xwOBA and a 45%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. There are better offenses as a whole in this slate, but I really like the three-man stack of Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson on DraftKings. It’s an affordable stack and all three mash right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.339	0.177	35.7%	4.8%	18.1%	48.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.336	0.181	30.7%	10.0%	13.2%	51.8%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.369	0.265	36.0%	12.1%	21.9%	31.6%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.378	0.194	35.0%	12.1%	21.6%	37.0%	C	$3,500	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.190	37.2%	3.7%	13.0%	35.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.348	0.127	30.8%	12.9%	16.2%	51.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.341	0.123	31.8%	7.3%	16.1%	45.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Newman	RIGHT	0.171	0.000	0.0%	8.0%	36.0%	71.4%	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Archer	RIGHT	0.040	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	66.7%	P	$7,400	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.297	0.140	26.4%	7.9%	22.9%	48.7%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Toronto
			Carlos Carrasco							Marco Estrada
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-190							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.278	36.8%	0.96	28.3%	47.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.324	27.6%	1.28	17.5%	24.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.305	40.5%	1.01	28.6%	43.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.390	0.383	34.2%	2.25	16.2%	22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,800	Salary:			$11,600	Salary:		$20,400
	Salary Rank:			2 of 28	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28
	2017	32	3.35	3.29	28.3%	5.8%	45.2%	29.3%	19.4%	94.3	13.4%
	2018	25	3.09	3.38	28.4%	5.0%	45.5%	38.7%	14.8%	93.5	14.3%
	L14	2	2.50	3.97	34.7%	6.1%	51.7%	37.9%	13.8%	94.2	14.1%

Carrasco’s strikeouts were down a little earlier this season, but they are back up to 28%, which matches his number from last season. Every time he pitches, we have to bring up his home/road splits because they are confusing, but real. In each of the last three seasons, he’s had significantly more success away from Progressive Field. That bodes well for him tonight, even though a matchup against the Blue Jays is less than ideal. I like Carrasco as a low-owned tournament option, but there are better point-per-dollar plays tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is viable in tournaments, but not a core play for me.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$4,100	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:			24 of 28	Salary Rank:			28 of 28	Salary Rank:		6 of 28
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%	89.9	10.9%
	2018	24	5.39	5.43	16.8%	8.0%	23.7%	31.3%	17.9%	88.7	10.0%
	L14	3	7.19	10.80	10.6%	15.2%	19.6%	36.7%	10.2%	87.7	9.2%

When I was in middle school, all the girls love the movie, “A Walk to Remember.” I’m not sure if Estrada liked the movie or not, but his year can be described as “A Season to Forget.” In 24 starts, he has a 5.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that can get into trouble quickly when he doesn’t have his best control. He’s an easy fade against the Indians, who own one of the best offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Just liked Mandy Moore, I’ve moved on to bigger and better things. Sorry, Estrada.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are facing a low-strikeout, high fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They are also playing on the road, which guarantees ninth inning at bats. On the season, Estrada has allowed a .324 xwOBA to lefties and a .383 xwOBA to righties. He’s allowed significantly more home runs to righties, so we could see the parrot make an appearance on the arm of Edwin Encarnacion as he rounds the bases. A full stack is viable here and each of the first five batters in this lineup are elite options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.387	0.246	41.7%	9.2%	16.3%	36.5%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,400	SS	$10,200
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.183	42.8%	8.8%	8.1%	43.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.411	0.345	38.5%	17.8%	11.7%	32.2%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,300	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.267	43.2%	8.6%	22.7%	39.0%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,400
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.379	0.208	38.8%	9.7%	19.4%	38.5%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$8,400
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.142	37.8%	7.9%	12.6%	46.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.348	0.153	37.7%	10.4%	17.6%	34.9%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,000
8	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.257	0.079	42.7%	8.8%	34.7%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,800
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.292	0.088	38.6%	4.0%	16.7%	45.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.356	0.190	40.2%	9.5%	17.8%	40.7%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley (GPP), Yonder Alonso (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley (GPP), Yonder Alonso (GPP), Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are a team with solid advanced numbers, but they’ve struggled as a whole this season. They draw one of the worst matchups on the board, as they square off against Carlos Carrasco, who loves pitching on the road. He has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. In a 14-game slate, there isn’t much to like here outside of Billy McKinney as a cheap GPP flier.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.469	0.361	55.6%	11.6%	23.3%	33.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400	LF	$7,600
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.325	0.133	33.0%	5.7%	20.1%	54.0%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,400
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.409	0.268	39.7%	16.1%	26.2%	32.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,500
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.448	0.250	45.6%	12.2%	19.4%	44.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	1B	$8,300
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.351	0.270	35.2%	6.3%	22.7%	35.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	RF	$8,300
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.337	0.172	33.7%	3.7%	19.3%	35.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,600
7	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.343	0.174	33.0%	2.4%	22.2%	40.4%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,200	2B	$6,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.347	0.181	33.9%	3.3%	12.8%	41.9%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,400
9	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.291	0.219	24.1%	7.9%	10.5%	31.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.369	0.225	37.1%	7.7%	19.6%	38.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Tampa Bay
			Dylan Bundy							Blake Snell
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -250							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.396	0.397	35.6%	1.95	18.5%	30.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.196	0.260	35.9%	0.50	33.1%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.297	35.6%	2.35	30.4%	37.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.297	35.8%	0.94	29.0%	42.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			20 of 28	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	26	3.94	5.36	24.3%	6.9%	33.1%	35.6%	14.8%	91.7	12.6%
	L14	3	3.67	8.79	25.4%	4.2%	26.0%	42.0%	8.0%	92.1	12.8%

Bundy has been all over the map this season. We’ve seen him look unhittable and we’ve seen him struggle to get out of the first inning. Generally, the rule of thumb is to play him against right-handed heavy teams and to avoid him against left-handed heavy teams. The Rays could certainly go the other way with it, but they are projected to have six lefties in their lineup tonight. I may have a share or two in tournaments given his price point on DraftKings ($6,500), but he’s far from a core target.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on what the Rays’ lineup looks like, Bundy could be viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,700	Salary:			$12,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:			1 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	32.9%	18.8%	94.3	10.8%
	2018	26	3.46	2.02	29.9%	9.1%	43.5%	35.8%	18.9%	95.7	14.4%
	L14	3	2.15	1.45	40.0%	5.7%	40.5%	57.9%	15.8%	96.6	21.0%

Snell is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but rightly so. He has turned into an ace this season, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He’s always had the talent and he’s finally been able to put it all together. He arguably has the best matchup of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. The Orioles’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .278 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is an elite play in all formats and the top pitcher on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Blake Snell. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. You won’t find any Orioles’ batters in my lineups tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.339	0.205	43.1%	4.5%	28.1%	50.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.255	0.186	25.6%	6.3%	31.7%	28.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
3	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.292	0.130	24.3%	7.5%	24.4%	65.4%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.335	0.116	31.3%	2.6%	8.6%	39.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.278	0.158	37.7%	7.9%	37.0%	40.6%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.298	0.185	31.6%	10.0%	26.7%	46.4%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.267	0.059	22.2%	8.6%	27.6%	30.6%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	John Andreoli	RIGHT	0.186	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.253	0.000	15.0%	0.0%	33.3%	50.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.278	0.115	29.3%	5.3%	26.9%	39.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw a boom or bust matchup against Dylan Bundy. As mentioned above, the best way to attack him is with left-handed hitters. On the season, he has held righties to a .297 xwOBA with a 30% strikeout rate, but has allowed a .397 xwOBA to lefties. The question is whether or not we want to target the likes of Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, and Joey Wendle in a 14-game slate. At their price points, I will likely take my chances elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.304	0.135	29.4%	9.1%	17.6%	46.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.350	0.162	47.3%	9.2%	26.1%	51.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.383	0.235	45.2%	10.4%	26.9%	41.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.354	0.225	38.5%	5.6%	24.6%	40.3%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.325	0.131	35.6%	5.6%	18.5%	47.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.266	0.111	33.1%	6.9%	23.9%	49.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.325	0.156	38.7%	14.8%	25.9%	48.4%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.290	0.146	29.5%	8.9%	28.4%	47.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Nick Ciuffo	LEFT							C	$2,000	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.325	0.163	37.2%	8.8%	24.0%	46.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Boston
			Gerrit Cole							David Price
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-101							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.244	0.251	30.1%	0.76	41.4%	34.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.327	29.2%	1.46	21.5%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.320	33.5%	0.93	28.5%	37.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.330	31.9%	1.13	24.9%	39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,400	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	3.97	4.26	23.1%	6.5%	45.8%	31.3%	23.9%	96.0	9.5%
	2018	27	2.87	2.85	34.7%	8.0%	36.5%	32.1%	19.0%	96.5	13.6%
	L14	2	3.16	4.91	31.9%	8.5%	46.4%	21.4%	17.9%	96.9	9.7%

Cole is not the most expensive pitcher of the slate, which is a site that we haven’t seen often this season. The reason for a price dip isn’t performance related, it’s his matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Boston’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .380 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching. I try to avoid pitchers facing this offense when possible, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Cole is priced at a discount, I will still be avoiding him in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
David Price
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	11	4.05	3.38	24.0%	7.6%	39.9%	32.9%	20.7%	94.3	11.7%
	2018	26	3.78	3.60	24.3%	6.6%	40.8%	31.4%	19.2%	92.7	9.7%
	L14	2	3.07	2.45	24.4%	0.0%	41.4%	20.7%	17.2%	93.2	10.8%

Price has quietly put together an impressive season for the Red Sox, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. His price feels a bit too cheap given his form, but like Gerrit Cole, it’s due to his matchup. The Astros’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .356 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against left-handed pitching. The way I see it, why risk it with these pitchers when we have two elite offenses squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark?

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Price in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

If I’m avoiding both of the starting pitchers, that should mean that I have interest in these offenses, right? Perhaps that would be true in a smaller slate, but there are 14 games to choose from tonight. I don’t like targeting players in bad matchups, even though they are playing in hitter-friendly ballparks. David Price has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.378	0.214	38.9%	9.4%	22.0%	48.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.403	0.132	39.1%	8.4%	10.5%	38.6%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.378	0.253	35.0%	12.4%	9.7%	30.8%	3B	$4,800	3B/SS	$5,800	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.350	0.119	27.7%	14.9%	20.8%	36.9%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.418	0.333	39.4%	13.5%	23.1%	33.3%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.338	0.141	34.1%	6.6%	10.5%	36.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.319	0.161	43.4%	5.7%	23.3%	39.8%	OF	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.329	0.265	28.9%	7.1%	15.9%	39.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.294	0.113	39.7%	4.5%	24.5%	40.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.356	0.192	36.2%	9.2%	17.8%	38.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Gerrit Cole has an elite strikeout rate and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. With that said, one of my favorite tournament plays tonight is in this lineup. Cole has reverse-splits and he’s one of the worst pitchers when it comes to holding runners. I love the spot for Mookie Betts, who should come in at sub-10% ownership for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.449	0.276	44.2%	11.4%	14.2%	33.6%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.396	0.201	29.6%	12.9%	14.7%	38.2%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.456	0.344	46.0%	10.9%	22.5%	44.3%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.381	0.256	37.5%	6.9%	16.4%	46.9%	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.419	0.228	37.3%	10.2%	19.8%	40.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.194	31.6%	8.4%	10.5%	37.6%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.329	0.203	36.8%	8.0%	24.3%	43.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.275	0.085	27.1%	3.1%	15.4%	40.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.379	0.186	41.6%	9.5%	22.3%	39.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.380	0.219	36.9%	9.0%	17.8%	40.6%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 7th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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