MLB Grind Down: Friday, March 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-30 19:49:50

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Pittsburgh at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Detroit
			Ivan Nova							Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-107							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.372	35.2%	4.4%	12.4%	43.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.376	0.358	42.3%	6.1%	15.8%	29.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.299	34.3%	4.8%	20.4%	48.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.350	36.8%	6.2%	13.0%	36.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 23	Salary Rank:		11 of 23	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%

Thanks to the two postponed games on Thursday, we have ourselves a two-game early slate to attack today. Nova doesn’t offer much fantasy appeal in larger slates, but he’s the second best pitching option behind Max Scherzer in the early games. He throws plenty of strikes, which keeps his walk rate down and allows him to pitch deep into games. His strikeout rate isn’t as high as we typically like to see, but that number jumps up to 20% when he is facing a right-handed hitter. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against the Tigers, who are projected to have six righties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Nova is viable when facing a right-handed heavy lineup. He’s the second best pitcher behind Scherzer in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 23	Salary Rank:		14 of 23	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%

As mentioned yesterday, it baffles me that Zimmermann is the Opening Day starter for the Tigers. There has to be a better pitcher on their roster. In 2017, Zimmermann was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. He posted a 5.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%. It’s always a red flag when a pitcher’s hard contact rate (40%) is higher than his ground ball rate (33%). To make matters worse, the Pirates have a low-strikeout lineup with decent numbers against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann would be a fade on a single game slate that required you to roster two pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Nationals are clearly the top offense to target in this two-game slate, but the Pirates aren’t too far behind. While they don’t have nearly as much home run upside as Washington, they should be able to put up some runs against Jordan Zimmermann, who allowed a .350+ xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters last season. The one through six batters are all viable (Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, and Starling Marte) and I should note that the first five are all priced below $3,000 on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.325	0.332	0.140	29.1%	8.4%	11.8%	47.1%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.322	0.323	0.150	32.9%	4.3%	16.7%	34.5%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.309	0.311	0.160	27.9%	7.0%	12.1%	39.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.343	0.340	0.211	32.5%	11.5%	19.8%	51.7%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.339	0.338	0.220	34.9%	6.3%	23.5%	39.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.350	0.328	0.128	25.8%	6.2%	18.1%	48.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.319	0.335	0.126	32.5%	10.2%	21.2%	49.0%	C	$2,000	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.446	0.456	0.333	33.3%	14.3%	0.0%	50.0%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.317	0.150	27.9%	9.2%	15.6%	48.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco (FD), Josh Bell (FD)

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco (DK), Josh Bell (DK), Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers’ advanced statistics from a year ago suggest that they were a little unlucky offensively. Their entire lineup seemed to have a high xwOBA and a high hard contact rate, but it never really translated into run production. A matchup against Ivan Nova is very simple to break down. He is tough on right-handed hitters (20% strikeout rate with a 48% ground ball rate), but struggles with left-handed hitters. His xwOBA, hard contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate are all significantly worse when facing a lefty. The Tigers don’t have many, but Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, and Victor Martinez make sense as secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.195	0.238	0.075	25.0%	5.3%	27.2%	42.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.331	0.328	0.135	27.5%	10.3%	20.5%	46.3%	3B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.290	0.343	0.144	41.6%	8.7%	20.2%	40.6%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.328	0.349	0.193	42.7%	6.2%	22.9%	35.5%	OF	$3,700	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.311	0.333	0.134	43.0%	8.7%	14.7%	38.4%	C	$2,700	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.284	0.302	0.121	38.0%	5.8%	26.5%	38.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.336	0.331	0.161	35.6%	6.7%	21.7%	48.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.284	0.291	0.120	28.7%	4.4%	14.7%	52.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.304	0.258	0.084	32.6%	4.8%	19.0%	59.6%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Cincinnati
			Max Scherzer							Homer Bailey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-190							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.287	26.8%	9.1%	26.2%	32.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.364	31.5%	13.0%	13.9%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.188	0.188	26.0%	4.7%	43.9%	41.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.394	0.359	30.5%	7.1%	17.9%	47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$12,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 23	Salary Rank:		1 of 23	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%

In a full slate, you could talk yourself into fading Scherzer. While he has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher in baseball, he has a high fly-ball rate and is facing a low-strikeout Reds’ offense in a home run-friendly ballpark. There you go, I have laid out a case to fade Scherzer. The problem is that we should only fade chalky players in DFS when there are viable alternatives. We don’t have a Scherzer-like pitcher to pivot to in the early slate. He’s clearly the most talented pitcher of these four and even a subpar outing could result in him being the highest scoring pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t overthink this one — Scherzer is the best pitcher by far in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 23	Salary Rank:		22 of 23	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%

I was a little sad to see this game get postponed on Opening Day because I had my Nationals’ stacks built and ready to roll. I ended up pivoting to the Orioles, which didn’t exactly pan out. I say this every year — Homer picked the wrong position to play in baseball. Rather than hitting home runs, he is allowing them (and on a consistent basis I might add). He finished 2017 with a 5.19 SIERA, a 16% strikeout rate, and a 10% walk rate. He pitches in one of the smallest ballparks in baseball and has to face a very talented Nationals’ offense in his season debut.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are the top offense to target in the early slate. It makes sense to max out your exposure to this lineup in all formats and all sites, which means four hitters on FanDuel and five hitters on DraftKings. Washington sees a significant ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati and the matchup is obviously in their favor as well. In 2017, Homer Bailey allowed a .364 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .359 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.387	0.348	0.163	29.2%	13.8%	16.0%	54.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.355	0.351	0.195	27.3%	6.4%	18.3%	51.8%	SS	$4,700	OF/SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.442	0.427	0.332	35.4%	16.3%	17.4%	37.1%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.377	0.374	0.203	33.1%	13.1%	14.4%	34.9%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.375	0.367	0.252	39.5%	7.2%	23.8%	47.0%	1B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.351	0.329	0.149	28.7%	5.1%	21.4%	61.8%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.267	0.288	0.113	29.1%	8.2%	18.2%	41.7%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.333	0.298	0.221	34.3%	7.1%	32.7%	41.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.194	0.221	0.000	17.4%	6.7%	16.7%	67.5%	P	$11,100	P	$12,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmermann, Howie Kendrick

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Michael Taylor

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Baseball can be a wild sport at times. While I always encourage DFS players to embrace the variance, that doesn’t mean we should go out of our way to make dumb decisions. Always have an argument for your plays other than “this player is going to be low owned.” While that can help gain leverage on the field, it should never be the sole reason why you target a player. I bring all of this up because targeting hitters against Max Scherzer is not a profitable strategy in the long run. It might work a few times this season, but it’s not going to work 30 times this season. The one and only player on my radar for tournaments is Joey Votto, who has always had an ability to hit elite pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.296	0.261	0.092	16.2%	8.5%	20.0%	45.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.438	0.382	0.271	37.7%	12.6%	18.0%	52.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.433	0.450	0.257	37.9%	19.2%	10.4%	37.1%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.348	0.358	0.192	31.0%	12.7%	23.0%	38.3%	3B	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.388	0.362	0.261	36.9%	6.5%	20.9%	39.0%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.268	0.286	0.070	20.5%	3.4%	13.7%	43.7%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.331	0.366	0.265	40.3%	9.7%	24.2%	43.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.326	0.339	0.138	34.9%	10.0%	15.5%	42.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Homer Bailey	RIGHT	0.197	0.138	0.042	10.5%	0.0%	36.7%	76.9%	P	$5,500	P	$4,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Toronto
			Masahiro Tanaka							Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-136							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.318	32.1%	5.3%	27.3%	55.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.366	32.5%	16.2%	25.0%	47.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.304	31.0%	5.5%	24.7%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.406	0.358	28.1%	9.1%	7.1%	47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		5 of 23	Salary Rank:		7 of 23	Salary Rank:		7 of 23
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%

We have an intriguing nine-game slate on tap tonight. After everyone threw out their ace for Opening Day, we aren’t left with many elite arms on the mound. Tanaka checks in as one of my favorite targets for both cash games and tournaments. He was a little unlucky with his HR/FB rate last season, which led to an ERA (4.74) that was much higher than his SIERA (3.52). He still had an above-average strikeout rate (26%) and good command, which leads me to believe he’ll have a better year in 2018. He has absolutely owned the Blue Jays throughout his career, potentially thanks to the fact that they can’t hit a slider. More than 30% of Tanaka’s pitches were sliders last season.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is one of the top arms on the schedule and he should come at lower ownership than Robbie Ray and David Price.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		19 of 23	Salary Rank:		12 of 23	Salary Rank:		8 of 23
	2017	8	5.62	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	47.5%	29.5%	21.3%

Sanchez has had an injury-plagued career, highlighted by the fact that he only made eight starts in 2017. He has shown upside in the past, but similar to Garrett Richards in yesterday’s slate, I’d like to see it before hopping on board from a DFS perspective. It doesn’t help that he is facing the murderer’s row of lineups tonight. The Yankees have an excellent mix of power and contact hitters, which makes them a bad matchup for nearly any pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Sanchez moving forward, but avoid him tonight against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

When a pitcher like Aaron Sanchez has been in and out of the lineup over the last couple of years, it’s hard to know which splits to trust. Rather than focusing on a small sample from 2017, let’s take a look at his career splits. In four years as a professional, Sanchez has held right-handed hitters to a .255 wOBA with a 60% ground ball rate. Those are not the type of numbers we are looking to target hitters against, but obviously Sanchez isn’t currently in peak form. I’m not going to talk anyone off of playing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, or Gary Sanchez, but I personally prefer the cheaper left-handed bats of Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.359	0.332	0.191	31.6%	11.1%	18.3%	42.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,300
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.440	0.432	0.364	45.1%	16.6%	30.6%	35.2%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,600
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.391	0.378	0.326	37.8%	10.6%	26.1%	44.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,900
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.367	0.369	0.249	36.5%	6.5%	22.9%	43.1%	C	$3,900	C	$4,700	C	$8,900
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.354	0.302	0.228	26.2%	4.6%	11.3%	36.5%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,200
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.366	0.358	0.199	34.3%	12.5%	16.5%	37.1%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,500
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.329	0.332	0.186	31.8%	6.7%	20.2%	49.0%	3B	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.193	0.210	0.074	33.3%	6.9%	41.4%	33.3%	1B	$2,100	OF	$2,700	RF	$5,500
9	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.220	0.240	0.085	21.2%	7.8%	27.5%	48.5%	2B	$2,000	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

As mentioned above, the Blue Jays had an awfully difficult time hitting the slider last season. With no major improvements to their lineup, I expect that trend to continue this season. They struggled with Luis Severino last night and could very well do the same tonight against Masahiro Tanaka. In addition to holding both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA last season, Tanaka has put up some incredible numbers against the Blue Jays in his career. Their current roster is 29-for-147 with 34 strikeouts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.282	0.315	0.156	32.8%	1.9%	19.1%	37.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.389	0.392	0.261	34.7%	15.4%	22.7%	41.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,600
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.359	0.371	0.266	40.4%	11.1%	22.3%	33.9%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,500
4	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.343	0.343	0.255	35.0%	14.6%	22.4%	31.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,600
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.290	0.341	0.184	36.8%	7.2%	21.9%	46.2%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.327	0.326	0.248	40.1%	5.4%	31.0%	37.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,500
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.339	0.347	0.178	29.3%	13.3%	21.4%	51.9%	C	$2,000	3B/C	$3,300	C	$6,500
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.272	0.300	0.124	26.1%	4.8%	15.3%	44.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,600
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.297	0.303	0.152	24.0%	2.9%	13.4%	46.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Tampa Bay
			David Price							Blake Snell
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-130							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.228	0.252	19.6%	5.7%	18.6%	58.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.228	0.268	28.6%	10.7%	24.0%	44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.313	37.0%	8.1%	25.5%	34.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.308	33.5%	10.8%	21.4%	43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Price
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$19,800
	Salary Rank:		6 of 23	Salary Rank:		5 of 23	Salary Rank:		4 of 23
	2017	11	4.05	3.38	24.0%	7.6%	39.9%	32.9%	20.7%

By all accounts, Price appears ready to go this season. He is coming off of an injury-plagued 2017 campaign where he only made 11 starts. While we may never see the elite Price from his days with Tampa Bay, he is still an above-average pitcher with strikeout upside. I would typically take a wait and see approach in a situation like this, but the matchup against the Rays is too good to ignore. Their projected lineup had a combined .277 xwOBA against left-handed pitching last season. Price is affordable (especially on FanDuel) and a large favorite. He’s one of three pitchers that really stand out in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Price is an elite play in all formats, but he offers the most value on FanDuel ($8,500).

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		12 of 23	Salary Rank:		13 of 23	Salary Rank:		11 of 23
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	33.2%	18.8%

Snell will be a pitcher that we can target at times this season. He worked on his command in the second half of last season, but has always been a bit wild. When he’s not finding the strike zone, he tends to walk a lot of batters and then gets himself into jams that he can’t recover from. Tonight’s matchup does not bode well for Snell, as the Red Sox are one of the most patient offenses in baseball. Their calling card is taking a lot of pitches and making the opposing pitcher work for every out.

Quick Breakdown: Snell has potential moving forward, but not in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox didn’t perform well against left-handed pitching last season, but J.D. Martinez should certainly help in that regard. We can rule out the left-handed bats in this lineup, as Blake Snell held lefties to a .268 xwOBA last season. The right-handed batters are firmly in play, as Snell allowed a 34% hard contact rate and an 11% walk rate to righties in 2017. Martinez is my favorite play here (.526 xwOBA vs. lefties), but I don’t mind sprinkling in Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts (who should have a nice bounce back season).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.386	0.410	0.210	34.5%	15.5%	8.1%	43.4%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.286	0.310	0.054	24.4%	13.7%	17.6%	50.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,200
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.276	0.349	0.208	37.2%	13.8%	22.8%	42.3%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.531	0.526	0.516	55.9%	14.5%	23.6%	25.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,100
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.337	0.314	0.110	29.7%	11.1%	15.9%	53.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,000
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.456	0.338	0.200	36.4%	12.3%	29.8%	51.5%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	3B	$6,700
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.321	0.315	0.137	28.0%	5.0%	10.1%	53.8%	2B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,700	3B	$7,700
8	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.336	0.348	0.129	27.8%	9.8%	20.3%	63.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.318	0.376	0.167	26.1%	3.6%	14.3%	47.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,400

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Over the years, David Price has had some really bad outings where he will give up a ton of hits early in the game. I start with that because it’s certainly a possibility tonight. With that said, Price appears ready to go in his first start of the season and this Rays’ lineup is downright ugly. They have two batters (C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos) that had an xwOBA over .290 against left-handed pitching this season. If you want to fade Price due to high ownership in tournaments, Cron and Ramos could provide some leverage on the field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Duffy	RIGHT								3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,700
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.301	0.246	0.106	25.2%	5.7%	25.9%	61.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.284	0.249	0.114	29.3%	3.9%	32.4%	40.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,700
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.331	0.343	0.267	40.7%	6.5%	29.0%	32.2%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,400
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.335	0.331	0.155	34.6%	6.2%	12.3%	55.8%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
6	Denard Span	LEFT	0.259	0.255	0.057	16.7%	7.7%	14.5%	57.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,900
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.314	0.287	0.195	37.3%	5.6%	19.1%	43.8%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$4,500
8	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.317	0.272	0.102	16.3%	7.4%	1.9%	68.1%	OF	$2,000	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,200
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.175	0.236	0.000	8.7%	16.7%	13.9%	47.8%	OF	$2,000	1B/2B	$2,600	IF/OF	$5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Miami
			Kyle Hendricks							Caleb Smith
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-190							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.309	0.307	34.1%	10.0%	23.6%	42.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.390	30.0%	10.3%	20.7%	25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.294	27.4%	4.4%	19.7%	56.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.364	34.2%	12.3%	21.1%	28.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%

Hendricks is one of those pitchers that I don’t mind targeting in DFS, but not one that I ever force into my lineups. His numbers are better than a lot of people want to give him credit for, but the strikeout rate is right around the league average and we’ve seen Joe Maddon limit his pitch count over the years. The Marlins are an offense that I will be picking on early and often this season, so if you like the spot for Hendricks, I certainly won’t talk you off of him. He has a relatively high floor, his price is reasonable across the industry, and he should see plenty of run support.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is a perfectly fine option tonight, he’s just not one of my core targets.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Caleb Smith
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	2	4.86	7.71	20.9%	11.6%	27.6%	32.8%	19.0%

Smith made two starts and nine total appearances for the Yankees last season. I’m not going to put any stock into those numbers because the sample size is small and it was his first crack at the majors. In 17 minor league starts in 2017, he posted a 3.27 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s a young pitcher to keep an eye on this season, but an easy fade against the Cubs, who have some serious right-handed power in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Smith in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ stack won the early slate yesterday and many will be going right back to the well tonight. Hey, when a well is pumping out water on a consistent basis, why look elsewhere? They get to face a rookie (basically anyway) left-handed pitcher that did not fare well in his two major league starts last season. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Addison Russell, and Javier Baez all had a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws last season. Ian Happ numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but that doesn’t mean you can’t include him in a stack. The Cubs are a great offense to target tonight, both as a full stack and as individual bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.326	0.280	0.200	25.3%	4.4%	28.3%	36.5%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,400
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.405	0.429	0.218	35.6%	19.7%	15.3%	37.6%	3B	$4,400	3B/OF	$5,400	IF/OF	$9,800
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.373	0.378	0.247	34.1%	10.1%	14.0%	43.5%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,600
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.386	0.409	0.243	34.1%	15.0%	18.0%	52.9%	C	$3,300	C/OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,500
5	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.386	0.363	0.144	28.4%	10.4%	13.6%	46.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,700
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.346	0.364	0.184	30.7%	12.7%	24.5%	43.5%	SS	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
7	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.242	0.285	0.113	29.4%	9.9%	14.0%	52.8%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,700
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.378	0.345	0.266	39.6%	6.0%	25.6%	44.0%	2B	$3,400	2B/SS	$4,300	2B	$8,400
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.052	0.055	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	58.8%	57.1%	P	$8,200	P	$9,900	P	$17,600

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Miami

I mentioned yesterday that we are allowed to be picky in MLB DFS. We don’t always have to take a stand on one side of a matchup or the other. While I won’t have any exposure to Kyle Hendricks, I will also be avoiding the Marlins’ offense. In addition to an average strikeout rate, Hendricks held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA last season. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour are decent one-off targets in large-field GPPs, but I’m not in love with either side of this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.145	0.246	0.063	30.0%	10.8%	32.4%	60.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,200
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.315	0.315	0.190	34.5%	8.0%	21.2%	34.9%	OF	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,300
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.332	0.313	0.157	28.5%	3.9%	19.6%	52.2%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$4,000	2B	$7,400
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.384	0.384	0.252	42.3%	11.2%	19.9%	40.1%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	1B	$6,900
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.341	0.338	0.145	31.6%	13.8%	27.7%	55.3%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
6	Garrett Cooper	RIGHT	0.288	0.285	0.125	35.0%	0.0%	20.0%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,400
7	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.297	0.298	0.111	30.6%	2.4%	10.6%	56.9%	1B	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.323	0.324	0.071	18.8%	8.6%	10.8%	52.0%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,700
9	Caleb Smith	LEFT								P	$5,600	P	$4,900	P	$9,200

MLB Grind Down: Friday, March 30th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Pittsburgh at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco (FD), Josh Bell (FD)

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco (DK), Josh Bell (DK), Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmermann, Howie Kendrick

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Michael Taylor

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author