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MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-17 20:17:16

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Pittsburgh
kansascitymlb Brad Keller pittsburghmlb Joe Musgrove
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-170 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.344 30.1% 0.65 16.6% 51.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.308 32.9% 1.13 17.5% 49.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.288 32.7% 0.37 16.4% 56.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.291 36.2% 0.88 23.9% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Keller
brad-keller-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 8 of 24 Salary Rank: 7 of 24 Salary Rank: 7 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 18 4.50 3.04 16.5% 8.7% 54.4% 31.6% 18.6% 94.0 8.7%
L14 3 4.17 1.64 16.7% 5.6% 55.1% 25.7% 21.4% 94.0 10.0%

Keller has a low ERA, but won’t be able to sustain it in the long run. His 4.50 SIERA suggests regression and it’s not like he makes up for it with strikeouts. While he does get to pitch in a National League ballpark (no designated hitter), he draws a tough matchup against the low-strikeout Pirates, whose projected lineup has six hitters that own an xwOBA over .330 against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keller in all formats.

Joe Musgrove
joe-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 24 Salary Rank: 4 of 24 Salary Rank: 4 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 4.04 4.77 21.2% 6.1% 44.9% 30.2% 20.2% 92.9 11.7%
2018 18 3.91 3.87 21.0% 5.0% 45.5% 34.6% 20.2% 93.0 11.2%
L14 3 2.76 5.40 31.5% 4.1% 39.1% 40.4% 14.9% 92.9 15.4%

Musgrove is one of the top pitching options of the slate, which wasn’t something I expected to be typing when I saw that there were 12 games on the schedule. His strikeout rate is far from elite (21%), but he is pitching at home against a strikeout-happy Royals’ team that will lose the use of the DH in this series. Musgrove is a -170 favorite with the total set at only 7.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a negative ballpark shift, they lose the use of the DH, and they draw a difficult matchup against Joe Musgrove. He has an average strikeout, elite control, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. I will still be looking to Adalberto Mondesi, who has been swinging a hot bat and who brings elite stolen base upside to the table.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.342 0.115 36.4% 9.2% 16.3% 37.0% 2B $3,800 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $9,300
2 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.288 0.164 39.0% 3.5% 29.1% 40.7% SS $3,200 2B/SS $4,800 2B $8,600
3 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.379 0.157 40.2% 9.2% 21.4% 42.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,400
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.356 0.211 46.0% 2.6% 19.9% 34.3% C $3,000 C $4,200 C $8,400
5 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.313 0.194 51.0% 3.1% 29.5% 39.7% 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 Ryan O’Hearn LEFT 0.497 0.479 57.1% 15.9% 19.3% 30.4% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
7 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.313 0.138 36.6% 5.8% 21.8% 33.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
8 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.317 0.158 34.3% 9.7% 31.0% 44.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,400
9 Brad Keller RIGHT P $7,600 P $8,100 P $15,900
Team Averages 0.351 0.202 42.6% 7.4% 23.5% 37.8%

Elite Plays – Adalberto Mondesi (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Adalberto Mondesi (Cash), Salvador Perez (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t have the most hitter-friendly ballpark around and they are facing a pitcher that owns a 54% ground ball rate. This isn’t exactly the best stacking situation. With that said, Brad Keller has allowed a .344 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Josh Bell and Corey Dickerson are both viable here, as they bat from the left side and boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.330 0.186 33.0% 8.9% 14.1% 50.0% OF $3,400 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.334 0.173 34.1% 4.7% 18.1% 48.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.358 0.143 32.5% 12.9% 16.8% 51.1% 1B $3,000 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.378 0.180 34.3% 11.7% 20.8% 38.4% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.350 0.187 36.9% 3.5% 13.5% 35.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
6 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.339 0.229 31.0% 7.7% 15.4% 57.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.348 0.128 32.5% 7.2% 16.3% 44.7% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
8 Kevin Newman RIGHT 0.232 0.025 7.1% 4.7% 27.9% 53.6% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,300
9 Joe Musgrove RIGHT 0.116 0.000 13.3% 0.0% 34.8% 80.0% P $7,700 P $9,200 P $17,700
Team Averages 0.309 0.139 28.3% 6.8% 19.7% 51.0%

Elite Plays – Josh Bell (GPP), Corey Dickerson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell (Cash), Corey Dickerson (Cash), Adam Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-115 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.314 31.7% 0.89 25.9% 36.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.347 28.7% 1.36 19.2% 49.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.264 20.5% 0.57 23.2% 51.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.304 26.5% 0.86 19.2% 55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 24 Salary Rank: 3 of 24 Salary Rank: 3 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 17 4.64 5.21 21.0% 10.4% 47.5% 32.8% 18.3% 94.6 9.1%
2018 28 3.80 3.23 24.5% 7.3% 44.2% 25.5% 23.4% 95.9 10.9%
L14 3 2.58 1.64 32.1% 2.6% 44.0% 19.6% 15.7% 96.0 7.9%

Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break. If we look at his last three starts, he has posted a 2.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 3%. I’m typically hesitant to target pitchers against the Phillies, especially in this ballpark, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers that Wheeler has been putting up. The Phillies have plenty of firepower offensively, but their projected lineup also carries a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Wheeler is an elite tournament play and a borderline cash game target.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 6 of 24 Salary Rank: 10 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0% 92.1 8.7%
2018 28 4.23 3.66 19.2% 7.9% 52.6% 27.4% 19.4% 93.0 7.6%
L14 2 2.79 5.11 34.6% 7.7% 46.4% 31.0% 20.7% 93.1 12.2%

Arrieta is a pitcher that I never seem to get right. After finally throwing in the towel, I’m going to give him the Gio Gonzalez treatment. I’m going to avoid Arrieta moving forward and if he burns me, then so be it. He’s had a huge boost in strikeouts recently and may garner some ownership at this price point. Personally, I see more risk than upside. I’ve said all season that the Mets’ offense is underrated against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I will be avoiding Arrieta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets aren’t an offense that I plan to have a lot of exposure to, but they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia and they have a few left-handed hitters with high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching. This should help negate the high ground ball rate of Jake Arrieta. While I wouldn’t label this as an exploitable matchup, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA to lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.283 0.128 27.1% 5.0% 19.3% 50.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.326 0.158 30.3% 4.5% 9.8% 36.8% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.342 0.177 37.6% 15.2% 22.7% 40.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.377 0.148 35.7% 11.7% 18.4% 28.7% OF $2,600 1B/OF $4,100 RF $8,200
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.216 44.7% 8.2% 21.2% 34.7% 3B $3,000 3B $4,100 3B $8,400
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.373 0.256 38.1% 14.3% 24.6% 38.8% OF $3,300 OF $5,000 LF $10,000
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.271 0.125 34.3% 7.7% 35.0% 44.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.319 0.173 37.6% 9.2% 22.3% 50.0% C $2,300 C $3,700 C $7,200
9 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.155 0.057 13.3% 0.0% 23.1% 46.2% P $9,800 P $10,500 P $20,200
Team Averages 0.310 0.160 33.2% 8.4% 21.8% 41.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil (GPP), Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw one of the worst matchups on the board. Zack Wheeler has turned into an ace in the second half of the season, showing elite strikeout upside and amazing control. Even his numbers on the season look solid, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. This Phillies’ offense is talented, but I’m buying into the form of Wheeler.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.310 0.114 22.1% 13.7% 22.9% 41.5% 2B $2,400 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.376 0.281 36.8% 11.7% 24.0% 28.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
3 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.355 0.172 40.9% 8.4% 19.3% 55.6% C $2,800 C $4,000 C $7,300
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.371 0.188 34.6% 17.6% 15.8% 39.1% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.356 0.239 42.0% 7.2% 21.0% 39.0% SS $2,700 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,600
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.365 0.194 31.5% 7.7% 22.4% 42.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.305 0.182 26.1% 7.6% 19.7% 39.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.296 0.107 25.9% 5.3% 22.3% 38.0% SS $2,000 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.148 0.097 33.3% 5.9% 58.8% 22.2% P $7,800 P $7,800 P $15,300
Team Averages 0.320 0.175 32.6% 9.5% 25.1% 38.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
torontomlb Ryan Borucki baltimoremlb Sean Gilmartin
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.317 27.9% 0.50 15.6% 59.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.327 30.4% 0.00 12.5% 40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.351 33.9% 0.62 14.8% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.457 0.462 45.2% 2.89 9.8% 29.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Borucki
ryan-borucki-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 18 of 24 Salary Rank: 20 of 24 Salary Rank: 20 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 14 4.90 4.26 15.0% 7.5% 45.6% 32.4% 15.2% 91.7 7.4%
L14 2 4.18 2.92 20.8% 8.3% 54.8% 24.2% 27.3% 91.5 11.0%

Borucki has looked better in his last couple of starts, but his numbers are still subpar on the season — 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The question tonight is whether an elite matchup makes up for a lack of skills. The Orioles’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .281 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I see the appeal, but I’d rather target the Orioles’ offense.

Sean Gilmartin
sean-gilmartin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.66 13.50 21.1% 5.3% 46.2% 21.4% 7.1% 89.8 6.3%
2018 0 5.99 3.86 11.0% 12.3% 34.0% 38.9% 14.8% 88.4 7.5%
L14 0 5.29 4.91 15.2% 12.1% 39.1% 43.5% 21.7% 88.5 6.0%

Gilmartin is slated to start for the Orioles, but he’s not stretch enough to throw a full complement of pitches. It’s not like we would want to play him anyway. In nine appearances out of the bullpen this season, he has a 5.99 SIERA with more walks than strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gilmartin in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have been quiet offensively over the last few weeks, but have a breakout matchup tonight against Sean Gilmartin. While we are dealing with a small sample size, he has allowed a .327 xwOBA to lefties and a .462 xwOBA to righties this season. Depending on what the lineup looks like, Billy McKinney, Lourdes Gurriel, Devon Travis, and Justin Smoak could all become elite options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.366 0.364 33.3% 8.3% 16.7% 22.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.401 0.109 30.4% 5.1% 15.3% 47.8% SS $3,000 2B/SS $4,100 2B $8,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.294 0.139 22.9% 10.1% 22.9% 47.5% 1B $3,000 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.341 0.155 33.7% 6.3% 27.6% 38.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,900 RF $8,800
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.202 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 66.7% 0.0% 1B $2,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,200
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.289 0.145 34.2% 2.9% 13.8% 37.2% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.316 0.209 28.4% 6.1% 17.3% 40.5% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $4,300 SS $8,000
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.342 0.208 30.1% 2.0% 13.3% 43.4% 2B $2,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
9 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.455 0.091 12.5% 7.7% 23.1% 0.0% C $2,300 C $3,900 C $7,200
Team Averages 0.334 0.158 25.1% 7.2% 24.1% 30.8%

Elite Plays – Billy McKinney, Lourdes Gurriel, Devon Travis, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki. In addition to having a low-strikeout rate, he has allowed .351 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Jonathan Villar is by far my favorite play here and I consider him an elite play in all formats. Joey Rickard, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, and Tim Beckham are intriguing, but best suited as part of a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.218 0.000 16.7% 14.3% 42.9% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.280 0.227 29.6% 7.0% 31.0% 29.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,400
3 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.336 0.185 42.2% 5.1% 28.3% 52.4% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.334 0.114 32.1% 2.6% 8.4% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.287 0.124 23.2% 7.2% 24.6% 66.1% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.298 0.172 31.2% 9.4% 27.1% 46.7% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.273 0.098 24.4% 7.4% 25.0% 35.6% 3B $2,300 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
8 Breyvic Valera SWITCH 0.221 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 60.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.283 0.065 20.0% 4.8% 20.5% 36.7% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,800
Team Averages 0.281 0.109 29.9% 6.4% 26.8% 45.2%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
minnesotamlb Gabriel Moya detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.254 15.6% 0.77 23.5% 34.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.344 36.2% 1.79 20.2% 36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.322 41.3% 1.83 19.1% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.324 38.9% 1.92 20.5% 33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gabriel Moya
gabriel-moya-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 4.57 4.26 19.2% 7.7% 31.6% 26.3% 15.8% 90.8 12.4%
2018 2 4.18 4.88 20.7% 8.9% 36.8% 32.6% 20.0% 89.7 10.0%
L14 1 6.67 2.45 6.3% 18.8% 58.3% 75.0% 16.7% 89.2 6.4%

Moya is making his third career major league start. He’s a 23-year old lefty that has mostly worked out of the bullpen this season. While he will technically get the start, this will be a bullpen game for the Twins. Minnesota hasn’t announced their plans for who will eat up the bulk of the innings tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Moya is an easy fade in all formats.

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: 13 of 24 Salary Rank: 13 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4% 92.2 8.1%
2018 22 4.07 4.17 20.4% 4.1% 35.1% 37.6% 16.5% 91.2 9.3%
L14 2 4.84 3.60 15.0% 5.0% 34.4% 40.6% 9.4% 91.2 6.1%

Zimmermann has had a decent season overall, posting a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 4%. He’s struggled in the second half of the season and draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Twins, whose projected lineup has a .330 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Zimmermann in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins one of the best stack on the slate given how cheap they are across the industry. They are playing on the road (which guarantees ninth inning at-bats) and they draw an exploitable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who has allowed a .344 xwOBA to lefties and a .324 xwOBA to righties. Given the fact that Zimmermann is fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, there is plenty of upside in this Twins’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.388 0.109 45.6% 10.2% 14.4% 51.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
2 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.332 0.123 29.4% 9.3% 15.8% 37.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,600
3 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.333 0.213 37.9% 5.7% 17.5% 32.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
4 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.313 0.102 34.2% 10.9% 17.9% 40.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
5 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.278 0.067 29.0% 8.6% 20.6% 50.0% 2B $2,200 2B $2,700 2B $5,500
6 Jake Cave LEFT 0.368 0.216 38.6% 6.0% 30.3% 45.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
7 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.319 0.166 44.6% 8.6% 23.9% 44.2% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,300
8 Max Kepler LEFT 0.334 0.192 37.6% 12.5% 14.2% 39.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
9 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.309 0.138 40.2% 6.3% 22.7% 34.6% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,800
Team Averages 0.330 0.147 37.5% 8.7% 19.7% 41.7%

Elite Plays – Robbie Grossman, Logan Forsythe, Jake Cave

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are favorites in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs, so we shouldn’t just cross them off our list of potential targets. Gabriel Moya is a young southpaw with upside. but he’s only expected to pitch a few innings. This makes predicting matchups hard, but we can bank on the spot as a whole. Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, and Nick Castellanos are all elite tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.336 0.210 39.4% 6.7% 26.0% 48.5% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
2 Christin Stewart LEFT 0.333 0.000 0.0% 40.0% 20.0% 100.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.399 0.206 47.7% 8.1% 19.5% 42.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.352 0.145 29.0% 4.5% 9.1% 41.2% C $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.105 0.000 15.4% 0.0% 27.8% 46.2% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 LF $6,300
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.347 0.112 31.9% 6.7% 27.6% 41.2% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,800
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.313 0.158 50.7% 5.4% 25.2% 42.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
8 Dawel Lugo RIGHT 0.189 0.000 12.5% 9.1% 18.2% 75.0% 2B $2,100 2B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Pete Kozma RIGHT 0.180 0.083 27.3% 0.0% 8.3% 36.4% 3B $2,000 3B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800
Team Averages 0.284 0.102 28.2% 8.9% 20.2% 52.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario (GPP), Christin Stewart (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario (Cash), Christin Stewart (Cash), James McCann (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Washington Miami
washingtonmlb Erick Fedde miamimlb Trevor Richards
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.370 32.1% 0.98 17.1% 57.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.319 30.1% 0.47 20.7% 30.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.373 37.9% 1.77 25.6% 50.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.372 47.3% 1.79 23.0% 39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erick Fedde
erick-fedde-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 24 Salary Rank: 22 of 24 Salary Rank: 22 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4% 92.9 5.7%
2018 8 3.87 5.12 21.6% 8.0% 54.0% 35.1% 16.7% 94.0 8.8%
L14 2 2.57 3.38 39.0% 9.8% 61.9% 33.3% 19.1% 93.3 11.0%

Fedde has a high ERA this season, but his advanced statistics suggest some positive regression moving forward. In eight starts, he has a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 54%. With good control, he has a very appealing skill set when it comes to DFS. While he’s pitching on the road, he gets to face a Marlins’ lineup that has a .291 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Fedde is a viable SP2 in all formats.

Trevor Richards
trevor-richards-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: 17 of 24 Salary Rank: 17 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 22 4.50 4.85 22.6% 10.6% 34.9% 40.1% 13.8% 90.8 10.0%
L14 2 6.54 14.21 10.8% 13.5% 30.8% 29.6% 7.4% 90.2 9.0%

Richards has shown up a few times this season, but his recent form is a big red flag. He has some serious reverse-splits (which should help against the likes of Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto), but the Nationals have some good right-handed hitters in their lineup. At the end of the day, do we really want to target Richards in a 12-game slate? I didn’t think so.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richards in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but get to face a pitcher that has been in terrible form over the last few weeks. As noted above, Trevor Richards has some serious reverse-splits, holding lefties to a .319 xwOBA while allowing a .372 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate to righties. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman are all borderline elite plays, although the ballpark may take Rendon and Zimmerman out of cash game consideration.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.354 0.124 34.9% 9.8% 15.5% 46.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 RF $9,000
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.316 0.136 30.3% 8.2% 20.1% 52.6% SS $3,700 SS $4,800 IF/OF $8,900
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.395 0.266 42.2% 18.7% 24.5% 38.2% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,600
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.386 0.195 36.1% 8.3% 13.1% 35.6% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 3B $9,200
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.393 0.225 35.4% 18.6% 19.8% 50.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,200 LF $9,400
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.379 0.212 37.6% 7.1% 17.1% 51.0% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.309 0.128 33.3% 7.3% 14.6% 37.7% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $5,700
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.296 0.144 21.8% 8.3% 16.9% 41.6% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,700
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT 0.159 0.000 16.7% 9.1% 36.4% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,300 P $10,400
Team Averages 0.332 0.159 32.0% 10.6% 19.8% 50.3%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon (GPP), Ryan Zimmerman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon (Cash), Ryan Zimmerman (Cash), Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins have a decent matchup on paper against Erick Fedde, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. With that said, he has a decent strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. We haven’t been chomping at the bit to play the Marlins much this season and I don’t see a reason for that to change tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JT Riddle LEFT 0.318 0.171 32.2% 7.6% 18.6% 46.5% SS $2,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.341 0.116 37.0% 7.8% 18.5% 53.6% 3B $2,700 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.374 0.226 38.9% 7.3% 18.4% 41.4% C $3,400 C $4,700 C $9,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.322 0.118 35.1% 6.4% 19.7% 49.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,600
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.326 0.149 36.9% 6.5% 23.8% 39.4% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.287 0.145 39.6% 3.1% 30.9% 51.8% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.306 0.159 34.6% 1.4% 20.0% 41.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,500
8 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.302 0.040 32.9% 6.5% 14.0% 45.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.040 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 47.8% 100.0% P $6,400 P $6,200 P $12,000
Team Averages 0.291 0.125 31.9% 5.2% 23.5% 52.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (DK GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious