MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 24th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
Article Image Sandy Alcantara Article Image Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-250 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.241 0.305 32.4% 0.00 12.0% 64.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.318 29.4% 1.01 23.6% 44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.365 40.7% 0.84 23.9% 24.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.309 36.8% 1.41 34.8% 41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sandy Alcantara
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 23 Salary Rank: 15 of 23 Salary Rank: 15 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 4.60 4.32 25.6% 15.4% 26.1% 39.1% 21.7% 98.3 17.4%
2018 3 5.22 1.42 19.2% 13.7% 53.2% 29.8% 25.5% 95.5 11.6%
L14 2 6.17 4.09 18.8% 18.8% 42.9% 33.3% 20.0% 95.7 9.5%

It’s the final week of the regular season. Many will be sad to see baseball end, but many are looking forward to the start of the NBA season. I fall somewhere in the middle. While I love baseball, it is certainly a grind if you are playing DFS every day. Alcantara gave up three runs (including six walks) in his last start, which happened to come against this same Nationals’ team. The large discrepancy between his SIERA and ERA suggests regression and the fact that he’s pitching on the road doesn’t help. The Nationals have five hitters with an xwOBA of at least .350 against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Value is hard to come by at pitcher tonight, but Alcantara offers more risk than upside.

Stephen Strasburg
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,300
Salary Rank: 3 of 23 Salary Rank: 3 of 23 Salary Rank: 3 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 3.37 2.52 29.1% 6.7% 46.8% 27.3% 21.4% 95.6 13.0%
2018 19 3.30 3.87 28.1% 6.3% 43.9% 31.9% 19.4% 94.8 12.0%
L14 2 2.28 2.08 37.7% 3.8% 25.0% 37.9% 24.1% 93.1 14.4%

The most difficult decision in tonight’s slate is at pitcher. There are a number of aces taking the mound and they are all priced fairly close to one another. In 19 starts this season, Strasburg has a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of only 6%. While it’s always hard to face the same offense in consecutive starts, Strasburg had no issues with the Marlins his last time out. He struck out 11 batters and picked up the win. He’ll probably be the most popular pitcher owned tonight, but we can look to differentiate our lineups elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins don’t offer much in terms of upside, especially in tonight’s matchup against Stephen Strasburg. He owns an elite strikeout rate (28%) and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. The only two batters in this lineup with an xwOBA of at least .340 against right-handed pitching are J.T. Realmuto and Peter O’Brien, but we can look elsewhere in a 12-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JT Riddle LEFT 0.312 0.164 32.6% 7.3% 19.1% 47.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
2 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.124 35.7% 6.6% 19.5% 49.7% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.372 0.223 38.7% 7.7% 18.7% 40.8% C $3,100 C $4,200 C $8,100
4 Peter O’Brien RIGHT 0.370 0.273 40.9% 10.5% 31.6% 45.5% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 LF $6,500
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.339 0.114 37.3% 7.9% 19.3% 53.8% 3B $2,500 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.281 0.137 39.4% 3.3% 31.9% 52.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,700
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.316 0.173 32.8% 2.4% 16.9% 43.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.182 0.009 21.4% 3.4% 24.8% 52.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Sandy Alcantara RIGHT 0.145 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 57.1% 100.0% P $6,600 P $6,700 P $12,700
Team Averages 0.294 0.135 31.0% 7.0% 26.5% 54.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

Washington

You will hear me say this a few times tonight — there is a serious lack of value at pitcher in this slate. You can take your chances with a cheap SP2, but there aren’t any that really stand out as great plays. If we are looking to pay up at pitching, it will obviously lead to a tight salary cap for our hitters. I would like to target the Nationals’ hitters here, but they are very expensive and we have a few offenses with higher implied team totals. In terms of splits, Sandy Alcantara has held left-handed hitters to a .305 xwOBA, while allowing a .365 xwOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.358 0.122 34.9% 10.2% 15.5% 46.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 RF $9,400
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.320 0.143 30.3% 8.6% 20.0% 51.6% SS $3,800 SS $5,200 IF/OF $9,500
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.395 0.260 42.4% 19.0% 24.9% 38.5% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 RF $9,500
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.385 0.194 35.9% 8.5% 12.9% 36.3% 3B $4,200 3B $4,900 3B $8,700
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.383 0.214 34.8% 17.6% 19.8% 51.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.375 0.208 37.6% 6.5% 17.3% 50.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.305 0.121 33.6% 7.8% 14.7% 35.7% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,700
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.295 0.138 21.6% 9.0% 16.6% 43.2% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,600
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.250 0.000 23.3% 2.6% 20.5% 73.9% P $11,200 P $10,700 P $20,300
Team Averages 0.341 0.156 32.7% 10.0% 18.0% 47.4%

Elite PlaysTrea Turner (GPP), Anthony Rendon (GPP)

Secondary PlaysTrea Turner (Cash), Anthony Rendon (Cash), Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman (GPP)

StackabilityYELLOW


Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Houston Toronto
Article Image Dallas Keuchel Article Image Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.265 24.8% 0.71 22.8% 60.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.318 26.9% 1.29 17.6% 23.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.312 29.1% 0.79 16.1% 51.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.388 0.375 33.5% 2.13 16.3% 24.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 23 Salary Rank: 11 of 23 Salary Rank: 10 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 23 3.61 2.90 21.4% 8.1% 66.8% 24.7% 25.4% 88.7 10.9%
2018 31 4.07 3.57 17.6% 6.4% 53.9% 28.6% 22.2% 89.3 8.5%
L14 2 5.42 5.73 16.0% 12.0% 41.7% 19.4% 11.1% 89.5 6.7%

Keuchel has not been sharp in his last two starts and on the season, his strikeout rate is 5% lower than the major league average. This is a brutal combination — a low ceiling combined with bad recent form. He’s a tough sell tonight against the Blue Jays. Even though their offense hasn’t been great against left-handed pitching this season, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .325 with an ISO of .167. I’d maybe give Keuchel a longer look in Houston, but can’t click his name with this game being played in Toronto.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keuchel in all formats.

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 23 Salary Rank: 23 of 23 Salary Rank: 21 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4% 89.9 10.9%
2018 26 5.44 5.75 16.7% 8.3% 23.4% 31.0% 19.0% 88.6 10.2%
L14 2 5.22 9.35 16.7% 9.5% 33.3% 30.0% 36.7% 88.3 13.1%

Stack the Astros.

In 26 starts this season, Estrada owns a 5.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 8%.

Stack the Astros.

He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with serious reverse-splits.

Stack the Astros.

He’s pitching at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he’s facing an offense that is loaded with right-handed power.

Stack the Astros.

Quick Breakdown: It’s nothing personal, but I hope Estrada gets shelled because I will be stacking the Astros.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

What do we look for in a stack? We want home run upside. We want a good matchup. We want a good ballpark. and finally, we want a lot of baserunners. You can check each and every one of those off the list, as they take on Marco Estrada in the Rogers Centre. On the season, Estrada has allowed a .375 xwOBA and a 2.13 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. The three-man stack at the top of the lineup looks awfully intriguing, as George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman all bat from the right side and all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.345 0.156 31.9% 10.4% 18.2% 50.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,300
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.354 0.147 31.9% 9.3% 14.1% 47.9% 2B $4,200 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.403 0.243 36.7% 14.0% 11.9% 35.1% 3B $4,300 3B/SS $4,500 3B $9,000
4 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.167 37.1% 11.3% 23.8% 43.4% OF $3,100 OF/SS $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.283 0.123 29.9% 3.4% 10.7% 49.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
6 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.306 0.105 31.2% 11.5% 16.1% 35.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.296 0.111 26.8% 8.5% 16.3% 23.2% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,800
8 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.308 0.209 38.3% 7.1% 27.0% 35.5% C $2,800 C $3,800 C $7,200
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.315 0.164 31.5% 11.9% 12.4% 45.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
Team Averages 0.328 0.158 32.8% 9.7% 16.7% 40.6%

Elite PlaysGeorge Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez (DK)

Secondary PlaysMarwin Gonzalez (FD), Yuli Gurriel

StackabilityGREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing at home against a struggling southpaw. While that sounds appealing, there isn’t much that stands out in this matchup. Dallas Keuchel has an elite ground ball rate (54%) and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season. I would have the slightest interest in Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk tonight, but they are priced up across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.389 0.171 28.6% 4.1% 18.9% 48.2% SS $3,300 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,200
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.328 0.197 28.8% 5.9% 11.2% 38.1% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,000 3B $5,600
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.289 0.133 23.1% 10.2% 24.1% 47.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
4 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.211 0.067 42.9% 6.3% 50.0% 42.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,300
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.369 0.217 35.9% 5.7% 27.9% 38.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.295 0.176 34.2% 2.7% 14.1% 37.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
7 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.345 0.252 33.0% 7.5% 31.4% 39.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
8 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.406 0.059 14.3% 10.0% 15.0% 7.1% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,900
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.292 0.231 9.1% 0.0% 21.4% 50.0% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,000 SS $5,800
Team Averages 0.325 0.167 27.8% 5.8% 23.8% 38.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysLourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk

StackabilityORANGE


Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
Article Image Dylan Bundy Article Image Nathan Eovaldi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-230 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.397 0.388 35.7% 2.00 17.8% 31.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.331 33.1% 1.27 17.6% 44.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.288 34.9% 2.20 31.1% 36.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.283 33.5% 1.16 23.1% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 23 Salary Rank: 12 of 23 Salary Rank: 13 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6% 92.2 11.4%
2018 28 3.97 5.48 24.3% 7.2% 33.3% 35.4% 15.0% 91.6 12.5%
L14 2 2.97 2.84 27.5% 2.0% 42.9% 25.0% 22.2% 91.5 18.5%

With Bundy and Eovaldi on the mound, we would typically expect a high-scoring game. However, it’s expected to be in the mid-50s tonight in Boston, which could help limit run production. The betting markets have obviously taken notice, as the total is only set at 8.5 runs. Bundy is one of those pitchers that’s either really good or really bad when he takes the mound, which makes him a great tournament play and a terrible cash game target. Since we are starved for value at pitcher, he could actually make some sense tonight depending on what the Red Sox lineup looks like. They are locked into their seed for the playoffs, so we may see some funky lineups over the next few days.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is an intriguing tournament play if the Red Sox roll out at Triple-A type of lineup or a right-handed heavy lineup.

Nathan Eovaldi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 17 of 23 Salary Rank: 13 of 23 Salary Rank: 12 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 18 3.95 4.22 20.2% 4.4% 45.0% 34.2% 18.8% 97.1 10.6%
L14 1 4.22 1.86 24.3% 10.8% 30.4% 17.4% 34.8% 97.9 11.5%

Eovaldi has always had elite velocity on his fastball (averages over 97 MPH), but he’s never been able to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. Luckily, the Orioles have made mediocre pitchers look like aces all season. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .311 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. Eovaldi may not pitch too deep into this game (he hasn’t topped 90 pitched since August), but he grades out as a nice value play on DraftKings ($7,300). With chilly temperatures expected, that gives a boost to both of the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: I wouldn’t consider using Eovaldi in most 12-game slates, but he’s on my radar as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but draw a mediocre matchup against Nathan Eovaldi and will be facing him in less than ideal hitting conditions (cold with the wind blowing in from right field). On the season, Eovaldi has held right-handed hitters to a .283 xwOBA, while allowing a .331 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Rookie DJ Stewart is the sole batter that I have interest in from Baltimore tonight and that’s only if he’s batting toward the top of the lineup. He finished his Triple-A season with 11 stolen bases and 12 home runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.311 0.200 28.3% 7.0% 12.2% 50.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
2 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.328 0.391 35.0% 7.4% 14.8% 30.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,600
3 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.288 0.116 29.3% 8.1% 26.1% 58.4% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.326 0.151 31.8% 4.5% 17.3% 43.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.376 0.197 38.2% 7.2% 23.8% 48.8% OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.291 0.124 36.1% 8.0% 36.7% 38.5% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.306 0.130 32.8% 5.8% 24.6% 46.0% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,900
8 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.308 0.191 28.9% 7.1% 23.9% 39.8% 3B $2,400 3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.265 0.124 26.8% 3.4% 25.1% 44.0% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.311 0.180 31.9% 6.5% 22.7% 44.4%

Elite PlaysDJ Stewart (GPP)

Secondary PlaysDJ Stewart (Cash)

StackabilityORANGE

Boston

As noted above, the Red Sox don’t have anything left to play for. They wrapped up the AL East title and I believe home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (Astros can tie if they win out and Boston loses out, but I’m not sure who has the tie-breaker). We are going to see some strange Red Sox lineups this week, as they try to rest up before their playoff run. They’ve had middling success against Dylan Bundy in the past, but his splits basically take most of the Red Sox hitters out of the equation. He’s been incredibly tough on righties, but has allowed a .388 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.447 0.267 44.6% 11.7% 15.2% 33.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,900 RF $11,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.389 0.185 29.1% 12.1% 13.3% 39.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 LF $9,100
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.449 0.320 44.9% 11.5% 21.9% 44.0% OF $4,600 OF $5,200 RF $9,900
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.372 0.246 36.8% 7.0% 17.0% 46.0% SS $3,700 SS $4,400 SS $8,300
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.402 0.205 36.2% 11.3% 21.4% 40.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.324 0.173 29.9% 7.9% 12.4% 36.9% 2B $2,500 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.276 0.139 26.9% 2.2% 14.2% 49.2% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,300
8 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.377 0.185 42.5% 9.6% 22.6% 38.8% OF $2,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.249 0.112 25.7% 3.0% 26.9% 41.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,000
Team Averages 0.365 0.204 35.2% 8.5% 18.3% 41.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAndrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW


NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
Article Image Luis Severino Article Image Ryan Yarbrough
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.312 37.1% 0.67 29.1% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.284 33.0% 1.19 28.7% 38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.306 33.1% 1.10 27.4% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.342 32.1% 1.15 17.9% 38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 23 Salary Rank: 1 of 23 Salary Rank: 2 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4% 97.6 13.0%
2018 30 3.22 3.46 28.4% 5.8% 41.2% 34.7% 18.9% 97.7 12.4%
L14 2 3.36 1.42 22.9% 2.1% 41.7% 38.9% 25.0% 97.6 10.9%

Severino has been solid all season, posting a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. He’s seen his strikeout rate dip 6% in the month of September, but it doesn’t look like he’s had a change in velocity or pitch selection, so I’m not overly concerned. The question that we have to ask is if we want to play Severino over the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber, and Clayton Kershaw. With the way the Rays have been swinging the bat over the last couple of weeks, I’m more interested in the other three aces.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an intriguing GPP play if he’s going to be low owned, but I prefer the other aces in this slate.

Ryan Yarbrough
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 23 Salary Rank: 19 of 23 Salary Rank: 18 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 6 4.09 3.79 20.4% 7.9% 38.8% 32.4% 18.8% 89.4 8.3%
L14 0 3.51 6.00 28.6% 10.7% 29.4% 17.7% 23.5% 89.8 13.7%

Diego Castillo is going to draw the start for Tampa Bay, but Yarbrough will pitch the bulk of the innings, so I included him in the tables above. On the season, he owns a 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. His ceiling (assuming everything goes perfectly) is five innings and he’s facing a very talented Yankees’ offense. This isn’t exactly a great spot for Yarbrough. With that said, he’s only $4,800 on DraftKings and the game is being played in Tampa Bay.

Quick Breakdown: At the very least, Yarbrough is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and draw two fairly difficult matchups against Diego Castillo and Ryan Yarbrough. Since they will face Yarbrough for the bulk of the innings tonight, it makes sense to focus on his splits. He has held lefties to a .284 xwOBA, but has allowed a .342 xwOBA to righties this season. I likely won’t be paying a premium for these Yankees’ hitters, but Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are all viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.389 0.196 43.2% 13.1% 21.1% 42.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,600
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.429 0.262 48.4% 21.8% 29.3% 32.8% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.293 0.157 31.5% 7.1% 12.2% 45.0% SS $4,000 SS $4,800 SS $9,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.435 0.319 56.4% 12.3% 25.8% 41.6% OF $4,700 OF $4,900 RF $8,700
5 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.390 0.263 47.7% 13.1% 19.4% 34.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,100
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.318 0.236 32.8% 6.3% 16.9% 40.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
7 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.404 0.357 45.2% 4.5% 25.0% 32.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
8 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.409 0.230 32.1% 16.9% 23.6% 34.0% C $3,200 C $3,900 C $7,700
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.371 0.318 46.8% 9.8% 27.6% 27.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
Team Averages 0.382 0.260 42.7% 11.7% 22.3% 36.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAndrew McCutchen (GPP), Aaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Aaron Hicks (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been productive at the plate over the last few weeks, but draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate (28%) and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. In the largest-field tournaments, Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle are priced at a discount and are worth a look if you are building multiple lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.300 0.118 28.7% 9.2% 16.7% 49.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.313 0.076 31.2% 6.9% 16.3% 53.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,400
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.392 0.261 45.8% 11.1% 24.7% 40.3% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.354 0.182 47.3% 10.1% 25.6% 49.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,100
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.328 0.137 36.8% 5.8% 17.1% 46.9% 3B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,200
6 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.297 0.157 30.9% 9.3% 26.6% 49.3% SS $3,200 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.292 0.168 36.2% 7.4% 22.6% 48.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
8 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.343 0.205 44.0% 15.2% 25.7% 42.6% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
9 Nick Ciuffo LEFT 0.231 0.182 23.5% 11.1% 22.2% 41.2% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.317 0.165 36.0% 9.6% 21.9% 46.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ji-Man Choi (GPP), Joey Wendle (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE


Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Chicago Cubs
Article Image Jameson Taillon Article Image Cole Hamels
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-155 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.324 32.2% 0.93 20.1% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.327 33.3% 0.58 21.8% 59.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.260 0.266 28.3% 0.89 25.8% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.358 44.8% 1.60 23.2% 42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 23 Salary Rank: 4 of 23 Salary Rank: 3 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1% 95.3 8.2%
2018 29 3.84 3.37 22.0% 5.9% 46.9% 31.0% 19.1% 95.3 10.4%
L14 2 3.12 1.29 28.9% 5.8% 45.5% 20.6% 17.7% 94.6 12.9%

Taillon is a pitcher that I love to target in DFS. He has a great skill set — 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%, a walk rate of 6%, and a ground ball rate of 47%. He isn’t elite in any statistical category, but he’s above-average in nearly all of them. He comes into tonight’s game against the Cubs as an underdog with the total set at 8.0 runs. The wind is blowing straight across the field, which isn’t a boost for pitchers or hitters. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see Taillon pitch well here, there are better options at his price point.

Quick Breakdown: Given the depth at the higher end of pitching, I will be avoiding Taillon in all formats.

Cole Hamels
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 23 Salary Rank: 9 of 23 Salary Rank: 9 of 23
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.90 4.20 17.1% 8.6% 47.5% 36.0% 13.7% 92.0 9.7%
2018 29 4.02 3.67 23.3% 8.4% 45.4% 41.9% 17.3% 92.0 12.0%
L14 2 3.90 6.39 20.0% 3.6% 42.5% 50.0% 15.0% 92.7 11.8%

Hamels has made 29 starts this season, posting a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s pitched well since joining the Cubs (with the exception of his last start) and he’s priced down across the industry. He has pitched well in his two starts against the Pirates, averaging 25 fantasy points (DK scoring) per game. With that said, this doesn’t look like a great spot on paper. The Pirates’ projected lineup boasts a .331 xwOBA with a walk rate of 11% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: I like the price, I like the ballpark, and I like that he’s a favorite. While not a perfect play, Hamels is viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have an easy matchup to break down tonight. Cole Hamels has been tough on left-handed hitters (.327 xwOBA allowed on a 59% ground ball rate), but he has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. With the wind blowing across the field from right to left, it gives the smallest of boosts to batters from the right side of the plate. I won’t have much exposure to this offense, but Starling Marte hits left-handed pitching well and is 10-for-20 with two extra-base hits and two stolen bases against Hamels in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Pablo Reyes RIGHT 0.451 0.273 20.0% 21.4% 7.1% 40.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 2B $7,700
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.355 0.183 35.3% 6.3% 21.0% 54.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.303 0.157 33.0% 11.0% 22.1% 42.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.360 0.122 32.7% 17.2% 21.5% 36.4% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,900
5 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.330 0.188 11.5% 11.1% 16.7% 38.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
6 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.352 0.222 38.9% 4.2% 20.8% 41.7% OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,900
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.345 0.194 39.2% 6.0% 19.0% 37.8% 2B $2,100 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.347 0.126 33.3% 7.0% 14.9% 34.5% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.139 0.000 14.3% 7.1% 42.9% 40.0% P $9,600 P $10,500 P $20,300
Team Averages 0.331 0.163 28.7% 10.1% 20.7% 40.6%

Elite PlaysStarling Marte (GPP)

Secondary PlaysStarling Marte (Cash), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

StackabilityORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are still battling with the Brewers for the NL Central title, so they have plenty to play for this week. Unfortunately, motivation doesn’t make up for a poor matchup. Jameson Taillon has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. The only hitter on my radar here is Daniel Murphy. He is only $3,800 on DraftKings and has eight hits over his last five games. Something tells me we see another special postseason from Mr. Murphy. Javier Baez does have excellent BvP against Taillon, but the splits don’t match up and he’s expensive across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.382 0.203 29.7% 5.9% 10.1% 32.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.356 0.138 28.9% 10.8% 21.1% 36.7% 3B $4,000 3B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.402 0.212 34.9% 12.3% 10.0% 36.9% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,600
4 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.333 0.278 36.4% 3.6% 27.5% 46.0% SS $3,900 2B/SS $4,700 2B $9,300
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.360 0.159 34.7% 12.2% 12.8% 47.0% OF $2,900 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.296 0.127 28.2% 8.1% 20.5% 54.8% C $2,600 C $3,200 IF/OF $6,800
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.338 0.135 29.0% 9.0% 10.9% 45.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
8 Cole Hamels LEFT 0.099 0.000 12.5% 5.3% 52.6% 66.7% P $8,500 P $8,400 P $15,800
9 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.351 0.206 41.7% 16.4% 35.8% 37.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
Team Averages 0.324 0.162 30.7% 9.3% 22.4% 44.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysDaniel Murphy (DK)

StackabilityORANGE


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious