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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 22nd

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-23 05:34:36

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta cincinnatimlb Cody Reed
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-155 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 30.3% 13.7% 25.3% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 31.7% 7.1% 17.9% 58.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 21.9% 5.6% 23.4% 54.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.395 39.3% 9.6% 20.6% 52.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 3 2.94 2.89 28.8% 6.9% 43.5% 28.3% 26.1%

Greetings Grinders, with 15 games on the schedule, every team in baseball is playing today. For the most part, the games are divided into a six-game early slate and a nine-game late slate. The early slate has better pitchers in general while the late slate has a game at Coors field. We’ll kick things off with Jake Arrieta against the Reds.

Arrieta has a 28.8% K rate this season and a 2.89 ERA, which nearly matches his 2.94 SIERA. He’s inducing fewer ground balls this season than last but soft contact is up to 26.1%. He’ll face a Reds team that he pitched a no-hitter against almost exactly one year ago today. The Reds had a 20.1% K rate against right-handers last season. Arrieta is one of the safest options on the board for the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: As a -155 favorite against a Reds lineup that is unlikely to do major damage, Arrieta is one of a few cash game options on the early slate.

Cody Reed
cody-reed-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.32 7.36 18.7% 8.3% 51.9% 39.9% 16.0%
2017 0 2.98 0.00 32.0% 16.0% 76.9% 7.7% 30.8%

Cody Reed is making his first start this season after making 10 last year. He had a 7.36 ERA last year. Against a potent Cubs offense, we don’t need to consider Reed. The question here is whether we can stack the Cubs against Reed. He’s pitched well out of the bullpen this season having not allowed a run in eight innings of work. He’s induced ground balls at a 76.9% rate, which is bound to regress to around the 50% number we saw last season. This Cubs offense will eventually get to Reed and get at least a few innings against the Reds bullpen.

Quick Breakdown: Cody Reed is not an option but we can consider a couple of Cubs bats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have plenty of bats that can do damage against left-handed pitching. Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber are the two best options. Bryant has a .444 wOBA against left-handers while Schwarber checks in at .424. Both also do a good job of avoiding groundballs which matters against Reed. If building a Cubs stack, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo and just about anyone else in the lineup are good options. It’s going to be difficult to stack the Cubs and get good pitching on the early slate though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.424 0.308 22.2% 27.8% 22.2% 33.3% OF $3,600 OF $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.444 0.335 40.5% 13.3% 19.7% 29.8% 3B $4,100 3B $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.368 0.206 24.7% 9.0% 12.2% 43.2% 1B $4,200 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 0.145 30.0% 12.7% 19.3% 56.3% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.351 0.252 31.3% 12.0% 22.3% 35.1% SS $2,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.364 0.186 30.4% 4.4% 18.7% 56.5% C $2,800 C $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.265 0.074 22.9% 10.7% 18.9% 48.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
8 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.379 0.130 16.7% 7.7% 46.2% 36.4% P $10,900 P $10,600 P $20,700
9 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.342 0.149 31.8% 8.7% 18.7% 39.8% 2B $2,600 2B $4,200 3B $8,100

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Cincinnati

The Reds have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate. We can pretty much skip right over this offense. The only player on this team that hits right-handers well is Joey Votto but we are talking about a matchup with Jake Arrieta. Let’s move on.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.304 0.078 18.3% 8.7% 19.1% 47.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Arismendy Alcantara SWITCH 0.169 0.038 25.0% 3.7% 51.9% 50.0% OF $2,000 2B/OF $3,400 2B $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.419 0.249 41.3% 17.3% 15.1% 38.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.334 0.258 38.1% 6.1% 26.9% 33.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.310 0.148 34.4% 7.5% 23.5% 39.2% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.326 0.169 32.6% 7.8% 21.6% 52.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
7 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.330 0.163 30.2% 7.9% 15.9% 39.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.322 0.125 32.0% 9.5% 13.8% 44.0% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Cody Reed LEFT 0.058 0.000 0.0% 7.1% 42.9% 100.0% P $5,600 P $6,300 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Detroit Minnesota
detroitmlb Matt Boyd minnesotamlb Adalberto Mejia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-100 9.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 25.0% 7.4% 14.8% 55.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 1.060 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 32.9% 7.9% 20.6% 34.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 26.7% 14.6% 9.8% 40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.38 4.53 19.9% 7.0% 38.1% 30.0% 19.2%
2017 3 5.00 3.77 17.7% 12.9% 40.5% 41.9% 20.9%

Picking on the Twins with left-handed pitching is something that was enjoyable last season as they had a 24.3% K rate. That’s come down to 20.4% this season but they are hitting much better with a .307 wOBA. I want nothing to do with Boyd in this spot. He’s walking batters at a 12.9% rate this season and allowing 41.9% hard contact. That’s a recipe for disaster here.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is a slight underdog in a game with an over/under of nine. He’s one of the worst options you could choose on the early slate.

Adalberto Mejia
adalberto-mejia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 7.02 7.71 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 41.7% 8.3%
2017 2 6.18 4.05 13.3% 16.7% 40.0% 20.0% 30.0%

There isn’t anything to love on the other side of this game either with Adalberto Mejia. In two starts this season he has a 13.3% K rate and a 16.7% BB rate. Meija has a career fly ball rate of 43.8%. He’s outpitching his 6.18 SIERA by almost two runs. He’s definitely not in play against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: We can’t consider Meija but the Detroit bats are the top stack on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Meija has made just two starts this season and both were against the weak-hitting White Sox. He made it just one inning in the first while the second effort was better lasting five innings. We can target batters from either side of the plate in this matchup. Ian Kinsler is the top play here. If Miguel Cabrera were fully healthy he would also be a strong option. He’s day-to-day with a groin strain. Make sure he’s in the lineup if you plan to use him. Nick Castellanos, Tyler Collins and Alex Avila are the other options I would use to fill out my Tigers stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.389 0.237 35.0% 9.3% 17.6% 24.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.271 0.209 37.6% 4.4% 27.7% 31.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.377 0.201 42.6% 14.9% 19.7% 40.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.345 0.149 37.0% 8.5% 14.8% 39.3% C $2,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.317 0.194 36.8% 8.5% 29.6% 37.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.286 0.143 33.3% 2.5% 21.3% 38.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.364 0.292 47.2% 9.0% 29.2% 34.5% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.210 0.192 54.6% 0.0% 57.7% 9.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.251 0.000 40.0% 22.2% 22.2% 20.0% SS $2,000 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Tyler Collins and Alex Avila

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

The Twins, Tigers and Cubs have the three highest team totals on the early slate. Brian Dozier (.371 wOBA), Miguel Sano (.365 wOBA) and Robbie Grossman (.423 wOBA) all mash left-handed pitching. They are the top options here while Joe Mauer, Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco could be thrown into a Twins stack.

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.371 0.301 39.7% 9.7% 20.6% 32.5% 2B $3,500 2B $5,000 2B $9,900
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.423 0.225 37.4% 12.2% 21.3% 41.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.263 0.085 30.1% 8.5% 18.4% 57.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.365 0.277 40.0% 14.4% 32.6% 35.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.261 0.128 30.6% 6.8% 25.7% 50.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.370 0.207 28.6% 4.2% 20.8% 32.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.331 0.195 36.0% 10.6% 36.2% 45.8% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.251 0.022 12.9% 3.9% 25.5% 58.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.283 0.193 33.3% 8.9% 37.4% 30.6% OF $2,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, and Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Seattle at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Seattle Oakland
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-122 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 34.0% 10.5% 14.9% 51.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.227 24.1% 11.9% 19.1% 36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 35.3% 6.7% 20.2% 29.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 29.9% 3.0% 20.0% 35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 3 3.97 3.06 19.2% 6.9% 45.1% 28.3% 26.4%

The third game on the early slate features an over/under of eight. Ariel Miranda isn’t a high-upside option but he might be usable in this spot. He only has a 19.2% K rate on the season. Oakland did a great job of not striking out against left-handers last year at just 18.9% (27th in MLB). This season, Miranda is struggling with left-handers, striking them out just 4.5% of the time. He also had reverse splits last year with a .372 wOBA to LH versus to.297 to RH. The Athletics don’t really have many great lefties though.

Quick Breakdown: – Even as a slight underdog, Miranda is in play as an SP2.

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 3 4.93 5.40 18.1% 12.5% 32.7% 26.0% 24.0%

On the other side of this game, we have Jharel Cotton. Using wOBA as a metric, the Mariners were a top 10 offense versus right-handed pitching last season. They did have a K rate of 20.1% though. Jharel Cotton is not an exciting option. He’s pitched one great game this season against the Royals and two really bad ones against the Angels and Rangers. He’s walking too many batters (12.7%) and allowing too much hard contact (26%) for me to have any interest here.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not going out my way to use Mariner bats but Cotton is low on my list of SP options. He’s a fringe SP2 at best.

Batter Grind Down

Jharel Cotton doesn’t have much of a major league sample size. He has shown reverse splits in 28 innings last season and 16 innings this season. My preferred option here would be Mitch Haniger who has been red-hot to start the season. He owns a .369 wOBA against RH pitching. None of the other Mariner bats stand out here when compared to options on the Twins, Tigers and Cubs.

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.300 0.098 16.6% 7.8% 11.5% 53.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.369 0.213 37.4% 11.5% 19.1% 39.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.389 0.263 37.4% 8.2% 12.7% 43.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.359 0.217 34.0% 8.6% 24.8% 44.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.379 0.215 39.0% 12.3% 15.0% 34.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.301 0.236 34.9% 10.0% 24.0% 40.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.308 0.133 29.3% 7.1% 24.2% 44.1% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.278 0.121 29.7% 8.7% 25.5% 43.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.313 0.227 34.3% 6.6% 34.3% 27.7% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $6,000

Elite Plays – Mitch Haniger

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Oakland

Ariel Miranda has a 45.1% ground ball rate this season to go with a 26.4% soft contact rate. The only Oakland bats I would look at are the cheaper ones. Adam Rosales could make sense as a punt play while Yonder Alonso is a tournament dart-throw given Miranda’s inability to strikeout lefties this season. Both are secondary options at best though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.284 0.131 24.8% 7.8% 23.0% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.361 0.234 41.5% 13.6% 37.1% 39.1% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,500 3B $4,800
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.301 0.040 25.3% 8.2% 16.4% 41.0% 2B $2,300 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.366 0.281 38.0% 9.6% 25.1% 42.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.392 0.244 35.6% 2.2% 18.5% 38.4% 1B $3,400 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.305 0.179 41.2% 8.4% 27.1% 47.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.282 0.145 25.8% 7.1% 14.1% 50.8% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
8 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.273 0.085 42.5% 5.9% 13.7% 42.5% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jaff Decker LEFT 0.196 0.000 27.3% 5.9% 29.4% 27.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,200 LF $4,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Rosales and Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Washington at NY Mets – 4:05 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-120 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 28.4% 5.8% 18.5% 57.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 28.5% 5.8% 24.2% 45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 33.3% 7.9% 22.9% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 31.9% 6.1% 24.6% 49.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 3 3.91 1.33 18.3% 4.9% 41.4% 27.9% 24.6%

I wish Gio Gonzalez were just a bit cheaper. I almost want to take a chance on him against a Mets lineup that is watered down by injury. Gonzalez has a 1.33 ERA through three starts this season. He’s doing a lot better at limiting walks this season (4.4%). The Mets have a .377 wOBA against left-handers this season but they will be without Lucas Duda and Yoenis Cespedes today while Asdrubal Cabrera missed yesterday’s game with a leg injury. If Cabrera misses today’s game and Gonzalez can navigate around Neil Walker and Jose Reyes he could have a decent outing.

Quick Breakdown: At his elevated price, Gio Gonzalez is best suited for tournaments. Keep an eye on the Mets lineup though.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 3 2.32 1.89 30.6% 5.6% 60.9% 19.6% 30.4%

Jacob deGrom missed his start yesterday due to a stiff neck. deGrom is pitching great this season with a 30.6% K rate, 5.6% BB rate and 60.9% GB rate. By the numbers, deGrom is one of the best pitchers going today. He’s going up against a very tough Washington offense though. The Nationals have a .37 wOBA this season which is the best in baseball. They also strikeout just 18.3% of the time.

Quick Breakdown: Concerns about deGrom’s stiff neck plus a tough matchup have me looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

While I don’t plan to use deGrom, he’s also not someone I’m interested in targeting. We aren’t getting any kind of discount on the Nationals’ batters here. About the only thing I would consider here is some sort of long-shot tournament stack. There’s still a very low probability of that working out given deGrom’s ground ball tendencies and strikeout rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.397 0.244 34.0% 4.3% 18.8% 43.5% SS $3,700 OF/SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
2 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.352 0.164 31.9% 9.1% 17.4% 50.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.368 0.221 35.2% 18.7% 15.6% 38.7% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.415 0.255 40.2% 5.8% 9.2% 35.1% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.298 0.164 33.3% 5.0% 23.8% 44.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.173 35.2% 8.2% 18.8% 37.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.319 0.183 32.1% 7.0% 17.3% 37.2% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.249 0.114 31.1% 5.0% 28.1% 45.2% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.166 0.043 16.7% 1.9% 40.7% 50.0% P $9,200 P $9,500 P $18,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets

Not surprisingly, I don’t have much interest in the Mets either. Neil Walker and Jose Reyes are likely to be the best options here. Both are switch hitters that hit LH pitching at close to a .420 wOBA. With that said, Gio Gonzalez is pitching well and there’s no reason to target him in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.305 0.190 35.2% 7.0% 23.8% 38.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.346 0.144 38.2% 6.3% 16.7% 44.5% SS $3,300 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.419 0.261 38.2% 9.2% 13.0% 33.7% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.283 0.189 32.3% 5.3% 22.9% 37.1% OF $3,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
5 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.417 0.290 35.9% 13.9% 12.5% 38.5% 3B $2,200 3B $3,400 SS $6,800
6 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.276 0.079 21.9% 6.0% 15.7% 42.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
7 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.210 0.000 32.0% 5.0% 32.5% 40.0% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.396 0.186 41.4% 14.0% 28.0% 41.4% C $2,100 C $2,300 C $4,400
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 61.5% 100.0% P $10,500 P $9,900 P $19,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Pittsburgh
nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-102 7.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 35.3% 8.1% 28.5% 44.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 31.8% 5.8% 16.9% 51.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 30.0% 5.3% 27.3% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 33.3% 3.8% 24.0% 54.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.40 4.82 27.4% 7.0% 45.8% 32.7% 17.2%
2017 3 1.94 3.44 32.9% 1.4% 48.9% 28.3% 13.0%

The Yankees and Pirates have the lowest over/under on the early slate at just seven runs. Both pitchers in this game are in play. We’ll start with Pineda who’s numbers say he’s an ace. He has a 32.9% K rate to go with a 1.4% BB rate. The only knock on Pineda is that sometimes he seems to lose focus and give up a home run. Using wOBA as a metric, the Pirates are a bottom-five offense this season at .291. The only knock on Pineda today is that the Pirates strikeout just 16.2% of the time against right-handed pitching. That’s best in the league.

*Quick Breakdown:*Even though the Pirates don’t strikeout often, Pineda is right up there with Jake Arrieta as the best option on the early slate.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 3 3.65 0.90 20.0% 8.8% 55.4% 28.6% 19.6%

Jameson Taillon comes into today’s game sporting a 0.9 ERA. He’s already shut down the Cubs and Red Sox offenses this season. He’s sporting a 55.4% groundball rate to go with a 20% K rate and an 8.8% BB rate. The Yankees have been a decent offense against right-handed pitching this season with a .350 wOBA. I still like Taillon as an SP2 here though given the other options.

Quick Breakdown: On one pitcher sites like FD, I’m paying up for the safety that Arrieta or Pineda offer. On two pitcher sites like DK, Taillion is an option, though I may spend the extra $300 to get Gio Gonzalez if the Mets lineup looks favorable.

Batter Grind Down

Given Taillion’s groundball tendencies, I’m not going out of my way to target Yankees today. Chase Headley has a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching but he also hits ground balls at 42.5%. I don’t see anyone here that projects out better than the options on the top three offenses (Tigers, Twins, and Cubs).

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.330 0.105 25.9% 13.1% 16.7% 51.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.340 0.172 31.7% 11.2% 25.6% 42.5% 3B $3,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
3 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.326 0.125 27.5% 9.5% 12.6% 47.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.323 0.167 30.7% 3.9% 18.9% 50.3% 2B $3,200 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.331 0.264 50.0% 8.2% 36.9% 42.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.237 0.167 50.0% 10.0% 35.0% 28.6% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.287 0.140 24.4% 5.9% 17.6% 40.3% C $2,600 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.311 0.155 22.7% 2.5% 9.9% 48.6% 3B $2,500 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Michael Pineda RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $9,100 P $10,100 P $19,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

Similar to above, I don’t see any reason to use Pirate bats against Pineda. They rank 25th in wOBA on the season. The best case scenario would be finding a low-owned home run. Even that isn’t very likely as the Pirates have just 13 home runs on the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.288 0.096 24.4% 7.5% 14.8% 50.7% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.291 0.088 26.0% 3.7% 14.0% 45.6% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.327 0.165 35.5% 9.2% 21.7% 36.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.329 0.192 35.8% 9.2% 17.6% 39.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.130 32.2% 8.7% 26.8% 59.8% 3B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.310 0.091 26.4% 13.3% 18.2% 54.3% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.356 0.159 33.3% 13.6% 12.3% 49.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
8 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.335 0.146 31.8% 7.6% 16.3% 40.3% SS $2,500 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.059 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 47.1% 61.5% P $8,400 P $9,200 P $17,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.