MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 11th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-08-11 09:30:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Texas								NY Yankees
			Drew Hutchison							Lance Lynn
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-230							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.436	0.398	36.7%	1.86	17.4%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.368	40.4%	1.26	15.2%	56.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.377	0.402	40.9%	2.45	17.2%	52.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.299	32.4%	0.76	27.2%	46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Drew Hutchison
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:			28 of 29	Salary Rank:			27 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29

	2018	1	5.22	6.29	17.1%	14.4%	47.9%	39.2%	12.2%	90.4	8.8%
	L14	1	8.61	18.00	0.0%	17.7%	38.5%	57.1%	21.4%	89.8	1.5%

Hello Grinders. I’ll be covering for Taylor this weekend and look forward to breaking down these next two slates for you. I have to mention that I will be traveling and on the road today, so I may not have time to update the Grind Down if news breaks. I encourage you to sign up for RG alerts if you haven’t already done so, but I will do my best to frame this slate for us.

One quick note – It turns out the Red Sox / Orioles are playing a double-header today. There’s an early game and a late game. The early game isn’t on any early slate so we decided to leave out the early game in the Grind Down for space/time purposes so we can focus on the main slate game. Just wanted to call that out before we get any comments asking where it is. Alright, let’s dive in.

Drew Hutchison is back in our lives after some successful stints with the Blue Jays early in his career. He broke out in a big way back in 2014 where he went 11-13 with 184 strikeouts over 184.2 innings. He then proceeded to be a 13-game winner in 2015. Since then, however, his career has taken a turn for the worse. He’s spent time with the Pirates, Phillies and now the Rangers. On the season, he has a 1.77 WHIP, 6.29 ERA and allowing a 39.2% hard hit rate. The strikeouts are still there (19 in 24.1 innings) but so have the home runs (six allowed). This is no longer a pitcher we can use and one we need to target against.

Quick Breakdown: Hutchison’s skills have fallen off a cliff and while the Ks are still there, this is not the spot to use him against a dangerous Yankees offense.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$17,900
	Salary Rank:			11 of 29	Salary Rank:			6 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%	91.8	9.0%
	2018	21	4.52	4.58	22.3%	12.3%	50.9%	36.0%	20.1%	93.2	10.2%
	L14	2	3.20	1.02	25.0%	2.9%	45.8%	25.0%	18.8%	93.8	10.3%

Lynn was dominant in his Yankees’ debut, tossing 7.1 scoreless innings against the White Sox while striking out nine batters. That was against the White Sox though, who lead the majors in K% against right-handed pitching. This matchup against the Rangers is slightly tougher, but on paper it lines up well for Lynn to have some success again. The Rangers are fourth in the majors in K% against righties at 25.3% and are very similar in terms of team wRC+ and team ISO as the White Sox. Lynn has some wide splits and struggles against lefties (.847 OPS allowed to lefties compared to .675 OPS to righties), and the Rangers do have some power lefties in Choo, Odor and Gallo. I like Lynn in tournaments for his K-upside, but there’s also risk he serves up some home runs in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn profiles as a high risk, high reward tournament play. The K-upside exists against a Rangers team that ranks fourth in K% against righties, but Lynn can struggle against lefties.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.413	0.236	46.8%	15.7%	22.8%	48.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,200
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.354	0.234	43.9%	8.1%	24.3%	37.7%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.302	0.130	34.5%	6.5%	14.1%	53.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.334	0.128	41.0%	7.0%	20.9%	40.5%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,800
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.337	0.195	35.3%	8.7%	14.4%	44.3%	1B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,700	SS	$9,400
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.399	0.257	47.0%	15.1%	33.0%	30.9%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,700	1B	$9,000
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.320	0.214	47.9%	9.4%	36.3%	31.7%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	C	$7,700
8	Willie Calhoun	LEFT	0.258	0.146	24.2%	6.7%	20.0%	36.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,200
9	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.185	0.053	21.9%	4.8%	41.9%	46.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.322	0.177	38.1%	9.1%	25.3%	41.1%

As mentioned in Lynn’s write-up above, you’ll want to prioritize the lefty bats for the Rangers. Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are viable as a mini-stack or one-off plays if you’re hunting for power. I would also add Jurickson Profar to that list if he cracks the line-up. Ronald Guzman also went ham on Friday and launched three homers, so if he’s given another start, I don’t mind him as a GPP dart throw.

If you wanted to roll out a full stack, I would consider Robinson Chirinos, Adrian Beltre or Elvis Adrus. I prefer Chirinos out of that group because of his power, but that’s just my preference. Beltre flexed his muscles on Friday and launched a homer, so he still has something left in his tank.

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Robinson Chirinos, Ronald Guzman

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.299	0.146	27.2%	11.6%	14.8%	51.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,000
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.321	0.202	36.0%	7.4%	31.2%	49.8%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,700
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.344	0.233	37.9%	8.8%	12.7%	34.2%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,800	SS	$8,700
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.371	0.192	38.4%	15.1%	19.4%	42.9%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.370	0.242	37.1%	8.3%	24.8%	31.0%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,500
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.321	0.194	43.0%	8.1%	25.3%	31.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,500
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.347	0.189	36.7%	4.1%	17.9%	48.5%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,200
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.357	0.103	38.5%	9.9%	22.5%	37.0%	2B	$3,000	1B/2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.336	0.185	37.6%	8.2%	21.6%	45.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.341	0.187	36.9%	9.1%	21.1%	41.3%

Hutchison’s propensity to allow home runs means we should target against him. On the season, he’s allowing a .904 OPS to righties and a 1.007 OPS to lefties, meaning handedness isn’t as much a concern for me. The power bats of Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Gleyber Torres are the priorities, while the rest of the lineup is firmly in play as secondary options.

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Washington								Chicago Cubs
			Tanner Roark							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-128
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.314	25.5%	1.22	23.5%	38.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.367	33.0%	1.57	18.6%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.344	28.4%	0.90	17.4%	46.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.358	33.9%	1.24	18.1%	36.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:			9 of 29	Salary Rank:		6 of 29
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	22	4.30	4.21	20.4%	7.6%	42.8%	27.0%	18.7%	91.3	8.8%
	L14	2	4.05	1.29	17.3%	0.0%	42.9%	9.3%	14.0%	91.6	7.1%

Tanner Roark is not someone I typically gravitate towards to in DFS. He’s kind of like that safe boyfriend you’d want your daughter to date (by the way Tanner if you’re reading this, stay away from my daughter). He has a mediocre 20.4 K% on the season and is great at limiting hard contact (27%). The matchup and ballpark don’t scare me, and Roark has now strung together three fantastic games in a row after a brief rough-patch in early-July.

Quick Breakdown: Roark feels like the “safe” play for cash games and has been in good form.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:			12 of 29	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	23	4.83	3.44	18.2%	9.3%	37.6%	33.7%	15.6%	90.9	8.1%
	L14	2	6.52	8.10	8.7%	10.9%	33.3%	27.0%	13.5%	90.9	6.1%

Yikes, things have gone south with Jon Lester lately. He’s allowed at least one homer in seven straight games and has only gone more than six innings in one of those outings. He’s allowing a career-high 33.7% hard hit rate this season and is on pace to allow a career-high in homers in a season too (he’s currently at 19 through 130 innings, with his career-high being 26 from 2017). Given his low 18.2 K% and his recent form, I’m looking elsewhere for my starting pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester has struggled lately and is not on my radar for this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.375	0.124	34.7%	12.4%	11.6%	39.6%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,000
2	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.405	0.323	38.3%	12.7%	21.1%	54.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.461	0.273	46.4%	8.2%	20.6%	18.8%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,900
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.386	0.231	36.1%	17.7%	24.5%	45.8%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.416	0.295	42.1%	13.7%	11.8%	42.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
6	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.273	0.029	9.7%	5.4%	10.8%	41.9%	2B	$3,400	1B/2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.270	0.155	40.3%	6.6%	34.0%	50.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.395	0.111	44.4%	18.2%	27.3%	33.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.260	0.063	26.7%	0.0%	16.7%	69.2%	P	$7,900	P	$8,700	P	$16,800
	Team Averages		0.360	0.178	35.4%	10.5%	19.8%	44.0%

With Jon Lester regressing this season, I am fully on-board for a Nationals stack. The right-handed batters take priority for me, so that would mean Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman. I also like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, and I would not leave them out of a Nationals stack. Both have speed and can steal a bag against Lester if they get on, and Soto especially has mashed left-handed pitching this season (6 of his 14 home runs have been against southpaws and he has a 1.145 OPS against lefties in 2018). Michael Taylor and Wilmer Difo offer some upside too if they crack the lineup as they’ll hold the platoon-advantage, and they are ways to differentiate your Nationals stack.

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Michael Taylor, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.405	0.214	35.9%	11.1%	9.7%	37.0%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,100
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.350	0.287	39.1%	3.0%	26.3%	44.8%	2B	$4,500	2B/SS	$5,400	2B	$10,400
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.374	0.188	36.2%	14.1%	12.9%	43.8%	2B	$3,700	2B/OF	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.353	0.141	32.2%	9.5%	11.2%	45.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,400
5	David Bote	RIGHT	0.433	0.184	40.0%	13.6%	18.2%	63.3%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,300
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.380	0.272	43.0%	15.5%	25.9%	40.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.309	0.158	31.0%	7.5%	20.7%	49.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.282	0.094	24.1%	0.0%	23.7%	73.9%	P	$7,600	P	$8,200	P	$15,800
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.292	0.089	30.5%	9.3%	22.1%	44.1%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.353	0.181	34.7%	9.3%	19.0%	49.1%

Because Roark can limit hard contact and has been in good form, he’s not someone I really want to pick on. He’s shown slightly worse splits against lefties so Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber are firmly in-play. I will point out that Schwarber has only hit four home runs dating back to July 1st so he’s slowed down his pace. The power of Javier Baez is also fine to chase. Outside of those three, I don’t really want to attack Roark with guys like Ben Zobrist or Jason Heyward outside of Cubs stacks, so I’m viewing this team more as a source of one-offs.

Elite Plays – Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Ryne Stanek							Sam Gaviglio
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.177	0.207	27.6%	0.00	42.2%	24.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.373	36.3%	1.35	15.3%	44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.341	50.0%	1.86	28.2%	37.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.315	31.8%	1.81	25.9%	50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ryne Stanek
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,800	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:			28 of 29	Salary Rank:			28 of 29	Salary Rank:		24 of 29
	2017	0	3.67	5.85	30.5%	12.6%	35.2%	44.4%	3.7%	98.2	15.4%
	2018	18	3.22	2.56	33.2%	10.5%	33.7%	43.6%	19.8%	98.0	15.5%
	L14	4	2.92	6.43	39.3%	10.7%	21.4%	50.0%	28.6%	97.7	18.6%

I absolutely dislike the Rays because we can never be certain who will come in after the starter. To make matters even more challenging, Rays beat writer Marc Topkin is away from the team this weekend, making the information even harder to come by. Ryne Stanek is being listed as the “starter”, but I don’t expect him to go more than one to two innings, making him unplayable. I cannot find any information yet on who is coming in after him. I’ll try to post an update if that information comes in (or feel free to drop the info in the comments section below if you find anything).

Quick Breakdown: We can’t play Stanek because he’s only the starter by name and I don’t know with certainty who is coming in after him. I’ll try to update things if/when news is provided.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:			20 of 29	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%	88.6	7.1%
	2018	15	4.12	5.08	21.3%	7.8%	47.7%	33.9%	17.4%	88.1	8.9%
	L14	2	4.74	8.64	20.0%	11.1%	38.7%	45.2%	9.7%	88.1	8.6%

Gaviglio continues to allow home runs at a decent clip (1.62 HR/9) but he’s found ways to post serviceable scores. His 21.3 K% has bailed him out at times, and he doesn’t walk many batters as evidenced by his 7.8 BB%. Against right-handed pitching, the Rays are middle of the pack in K% at 22.1% and have a team wRC+ of 98. If Gaviglio can keep the ball in the park he actually has some upside at his price. The Rays did get to teammate Marco Estrada on Friday so recency bias may play a role in our comfort level towards Gaviglio, but this isn’t a frightening Rays lineup. It may also be worth monitoring the roof status, as a closed roof would be a bump in Gaviglio’s favor.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio has some strikeout upside and can be used as a tournament SP2 if you can tolerate some risk knowing he’s had home run issues.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.295	0.123	29.8%	8.9%	18.4%	46.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,200
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.310	0.083	28.0%	5.4%	15.2%	52.6%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,700
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.373	0.248	45.2%	14.9%	24.1%	42.3%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,200
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.350	0.232	38.1%	5.8%	25.0%	42.6%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.321	0.124	35.8%	6.1%	19.2%	46.7%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,900	2B	$7,700
6	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.265	0.104	32.0%	8.1%	26.3%	51.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,600
7	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.145	0.000	0.0%	16.7%	16.7%	25.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$2,900	2B	$5,700
8	Michael Perez	LEFT	0.330	0.043	35.0%	7.7%	15.4%	30.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,600
9	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.278	0.127	26.0%	7.2%	27.0%	43.1%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,700
	Team Averages		0.296	0.120	30.0%	9.0%	20.8%	42.2%

Gaviglio is allowing power to both sides of the plate, so I’d focus first on the power bats in this lineup. Jakob Bauers and the suddenly-hot Ji-Man Choi are fine options. I like the speed Mallex Smith offers at the top of the lineup but $4,800 is a big asking price on DraftKings. $3,500 on FanDuel feels a bit more fair. We finally saw some power out of Michael Perez on Friday as he launched a home run, and I don’t mind him as a punt catcher at his price. Catcher has been one of the harder positions lately to nail down so something I’ve been doing when playing a 3-max or 20-max contest is just rotating my exposure at the catcher position so I spread out my player pool at the position.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jakob Bauers, Ji-Man Choi, Michael Perez, Mallex Smith (prefer on FanDuel)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.344	0.190	37.1%	12.0%	27.5%	33.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.294	0.114	26.8%	6.0%	21.9%	56.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.413	0.267	38.2%	16.0%	25.6%	31.8%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,000
4	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.368	0.216	40.0%	6.4%	28.0%	36.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,100
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.430	0.202	45.4%	11.6%	20.9%	42.1%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
6	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.330	0.141	29.8%	6.8%	15.5%	43.0%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.322	0.165	30.2%	16.0%	23.5%	49.2%	C	$2,500	C	$4,000	C	$7,300
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.358	0.197	34.3%	3.4%	10.6%	43.3%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,600
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.329	0.169	34.2%	3.8%	20.4%	37.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.354	0.185	35.1%	9.1%	21.5%	41.6%

Without knowledge of who is coming in after Ryne Stanek it’s difficult to identify the best plays. The handedness of the long reliever is going to play a big role too. For example, if it’s the lefty Ryan Yarbrough, he’s going to hold the platoon-advatage against Curtis Granderson. Justin Smoak has also shown less power against left-handed pitching this season. However, a lefty like Yarbrough would benefit someone like Devon Travis, who has an OPS nearly 200 points higher against lefties. It’s also interesting to note that while Randal Grichuk is a righty, he’s actually hit right-handed pitching better over his career.

So this is all to say that this is a fluid situation. I wish I could provide more concrete guidance but I’m working with what little information I have.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – TBD – I would prefer Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson if we hear a right-handed long reliever is coming in, while I’d prefer Devon Travis if it’s a lefty.

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Detroit
			Kyle Gibson							Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.343	39.9%	0.83	20.1%	41.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.206	0.304	19.6%	0.90	25.0%	54.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.308	37.8%	1.08	25.9%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.386	31.9%	1.40	17.5%	44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:			5 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.67	5.07	17.5%	8.7%	50.8%	35.8%	15.4%	92.0	10.0%
	2018	23	4.15	3.60	23.1%	9.6%	46.7%	38.8%	18.8%	92.8	12.0%
	L14	3	4.36	3.79	20.3%	10.1%	53.8%	42.6%	16.7%	93.0	11.8%

It’s such a weird thing to say, but I’ve subscribed to the idea that Kyle Gibson is actually good now. On the season, he’s allowing a .229 batting average and just a .672 OPS to both sides of the plate. His 21.3 K% is a career-high in the majors and while he is allowing a 38.8% hard hit rate, they aren’t going over the fence as his HR/9 ratio is just 0.96. He now faces a Tigers team that’s mainly right-handed, has a 22.6 K% against righties (14th in majors) and a team wRC+ of just 74. On paper this isn’t a scary matchup for Gibson.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson has been solid this season and is an option for both cash games and tournaments against a Tigers team that lacks power.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			25 of 29	Salary Rank:			22 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%	92.9	9.6%
	2018	17	5.17	4.37	18.9%	13.2%	45.9%	29.7%	19.7%	91.9	10.5%
	L14	1	4.91	2.57	13.3%	10.0%	54.5%	31.8%	18.2%	92.3	7.6%

Liriano has always been one of those GPP dart throws where you play him for the K-upside knowing there is downside that he can walk everyone and serve up the big blow via home runs. But this season, his K-upside isn’t even there with his 18.9 K%. The walk downside remains too, with his 13.2 BB%. The only thing working in Liriano’s favor is the matchup. The Twins have been brutal against lefties this season and it doesn’t help matters that they traded away lefty-masher Brian Dozier (I threw that term in there in case Carty is reading. Hi Derek). In 2018, the Twins have the third highest K% against lefties, so I suppose Liriano’s K-upside is boosted by the matchup. I can see the appeal of Liriano in tournaments, but there is risk in this play and it’s purely matchup-driven.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano’s strikeout rate has dropped this season while his walks and home run issues persist. The matchup is an enticing one as the Twins rank third in the majors in K% against lefties, so I get the appeal of Liriano as a GPP-dart throw.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.334	0.069	39.1%	8.2%	18.6%	55.1%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.277	0.134	33.3%	3.8%	19.2%	44.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.214	0.047	46.9%	0.0%	23.3%	35.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.198	0.095	26.1%	10.4%	41.7%	39.1%	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.281	0.067	41.2%	8.2%	22.4%	42.6%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.350	0.221	39.8%	10.1%	20.9%	34.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.288	0.071	28.3%	11.4%	21.5%	37.7%	C	$2,100	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.242	0.109	24.4%	8.3%	27.8%	44.2%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.252	0.304	20.0%	8.0%	52.0%	22.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.271	0.124	33.2%	7.6%	27.5%	39.4%

Liriano has been fantastic against lefties this season, holding them to a .441 OPS. It’s been the righties that have given him issues as they have smacked 11 of his 13 home runs allowed this season. This puts Miguel Sano on the map for me, as well as Logan Forsythe and Jorge Polanco to a lesser extent. Even though Eddie Rosario won’t have the platoon-advantage, I’d be okay with taking some shots on him in tournaments with the hope Liriano becomes wild and Rosario feasts later on in the game against the Tigers’ bullpen.

I don’t love the Twins as a stack here, but given this is a short early slate we’re working with, I can see the appeal of trying to pick some batters against Liriano.

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe (for salary relief), Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mike Gerber	LEFT	0.268	0.056	16.7%	10.0%	30.0%	25.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.264	0.099	25.7%	3.4%	11.3%	45.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.368	0.183	47.4%	5.6%	24.9%	33.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.291	0.181	33.7%	11.0%	25.2%	38.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.334	0.075	39.7%	7.2%	9.7%	38.0%	C	$2,100	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.309	0.212	37.1%	7.6%	30.9%	39.1%	2B	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.259	0.167	30.3%	4.0%	30.0%	45.5%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.271	0.085	35.9%	5.8%	22.8%	39.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.246	0.039	33.8%	1.9%	21.2%	51.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.290	0.122	33.4%	6.3%	22.9%	39.6%

I just don’t love this Tigers offense and don’t see the need to target them heavily on this slate. You could make a case for Nick Castellanos and his power, but I’d much rather target Gibson than target any of these hitters. Niko Goodrum and Jeimer Candelario are the other two I would give slight consideration too, but I don’t consider them necessary plays on this slate unless you’re building a lot of teams and want to mix in bats from this game.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – RED

Arizona at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Arizona								Cincinnati
			Robbie Ray							Matt Harvey
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.228	0.265	34.2%	1.37	34.3%	55.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.380	41.2%	1.94	16.2%	38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.375	0.347	47.0%	1.74	29.8%	32.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.327	0.339	34.7%	1.36	17.9%	47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Robbie Ray
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 29	Salary Rank:			7 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	3.53	2.89	32.8%	10.7%	40.3%	40.4%	16.4%	94.3	14.2%
	2018	14	3.74	4.92	30.8%	12.0%	37.4%	43.9%	13.9%	93.5	12.6%
	L14	2	4.56	5.06	31.1%	17.8%	39.1%	47.8%	13.0%	94.3	10.1%

The strikeouts have been there for Robbie Ray. Through 71.1 innings, Ray has fanned an impressive 95 batters. What’s eluded Ray has been his ability to put away right-handed batters. He’s been death to lefties, but righties are batting .284 against him and have smacked 10 home runs in just 201 at-bats. His elite 30.8 K% also loses some shine when you notice he’s walking batters 12% of the time and allowing 43.9% hard contact. This Reds offense is a bit watered down and doesn’t possess too many right-handed power bats, but Ray still feels like a stronger tournament play than safe cash game play.

Quick Breakdown: Ray has huge strikeout ability, but has been getting mashed by righties. I prefer Ray as a high-upside tournament play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$5,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			23 of 29	Salary Rank:			26 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.44	6.70	15.6%	10.9%	43.0%	32.5%	24.1%	93.8	7.5%
	2018	19	4.53	5.37	17.1%	6.2%	42.9%	37.9%	17.1%	93.9	8.7%
	L14	2	5.34	7.00	14.3%	9.5%	43.3%	21.9%	25.0%	94.8	12.3%

Harvey has the opposite problem as Robbie Ray, where he has trouble getting left-handed batters out. He’s been much better since his trade from the Mets. 11 of Harvey’s 19 home runs have been by lefties and he’s allowing a .849 OPS to that handedness. After a six-game stretch where he didn’t allow a home run, he’s now allowed six over his last three starts. The Diamondbacks have a ton of solid lefty bats, making them an elite stack on today’s slate. I cannot endorse Harvey against this team.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey’s struggle with left-handed bats doesn’t bode well against the Diamondbacks. I’m sitting this one out.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.325	0.110	37.6%	4.4%	14.1%	55.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.378	0.216	44.4%	12.7%	27.6%	41.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	David Peralta	LEFT	0.382	0.249	48.7%	7.5%	18.5%	48.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.376	0.235	44.9%	7.6%	21.7%	40.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.364	0.284	40.9%	7.2%	21.4%	27.4%	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.361	0.188	39.5%	17.7%	23.5%	29.6%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.308	0.128	30.1%	8.2%	14.2%	53.4%	2B	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.352	0.162	54.8%	15.6%	39.7%	41.9%	C	$2,200	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.099	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	33.3%	P	$8,700	P	$9,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.327	0.175	37.9%	9.0%	25.6%	41.3%

Lefties are my priority against Harvey, meaning David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte (mmm, Ketel chips…) are my top choices. Harvey is still prone to right-handed power, so Paul Goldschmidt, Steven Souza and A.J. Pollock are still great plays. Because of the ballpark, I don’t mind one-off punt plays of Nick Ahmed or whatever catcher the Diamondbacks run out there, whether that be Alex Avila, Jeff Mathis or John Ryan Murphy. I would much rather play the lefty Avila if he cracks the lineup.

Elite Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Nick Ahmed, Alex Avila (if he starts), Ketel Marte, Steven Souza

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.287	0.081	24.4%	3.1%	5.4%	40.9%	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.400	0.400	33.3%	11.8%	17.6%	25.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.370	0.099	40.8%	15.1%	20.8%	42.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.494	0.333	56.2%	16.1%	17.9%	37.0%	3B	$3,700	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Dixon	RIGHT	0.224	0.150	30.8%	4.8%	33.3%	58.3%	2B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.413	0.278	37.5%	13.6%	9.1%	50.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Dilson Herrera	RIGHT	0.248	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.094	0.000	100.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$6,100	P	$5,000	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.247	0.108	26.2%	7.9%	31.7%	27.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.309	0.161	42.5%	8.0%	29.0%	42.4%

The Reds’ righties would be the first place I’d look to. Eugenio Suarez is an elite target, and Jose Peraza has some appeal leading-off and holding the platoon-advantage. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett profile more as options if you were running a full Reds stack, but I don’t love them as one-offs. Phillip Ervin is interesting but more of a secondary option, simply because he’s a righty in this hitter’s ballpark.

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Phillip Ervin, Scooter Gennett (GPP or part of stack), Jose Peraza, Joey Votto (GPP or part of stack)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 11th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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