MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 16th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-17 00:39:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Ryne Stanek							Luis Severino
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.159	0.213	18.2%	12.5%	37.5%	36.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.242	0.304	37.0%	10.5%	34.3%	43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.394	50.0%	14.3%	28.6%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.239	0.291	31.5%	4.1%	28.4%	47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ryne Stanek
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		30 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	3.67	5.85	30.5%	12.6%	35.2%	44.4%	3.7%
	2018	4	3.59	2.76	31.8%	13.6%	34.3%	40.0%	25.7%
	L14	3	3.47	2.25	32.3%	12.9%	41.2%	35.3%	29.4%

Ryne Stanek will draw the start for the Rays today, but he’s a reliever that won’t throw more than 2 innings. The Rays pitcher you would prefer to target in this spot is Ryan Yarbrough, who is expected to come in to relieve Stanek and pitch several innings. The matchup in New York against the Yankees is suboptimal, but Yarbrough has been solid in this role for Tampa. The lefty owns a K-rate north of 21% and he’s kept the hard contact against him under 30%. Yarbo has also shown a pretty substantial reverse-split at the big league level, which should help him against a Yankees lineup full of potent RHBs. Unfortunately, the potential downside against a stacked New York lineup is too great for me to give him serious consideration.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not a fan of Ryan Yarbrough matchup today in New York. Ignore Ryne Stanek altogether.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$13,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	14	2.94	2.27	30.6%	6.5%	46.2%	33.3%	21.2%
	L14	2	2.49	2.08	32.7%	3.9%	40.6%	34.4%	15.6%

Luis Severino has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. The big right-hander has a strikeout rate over 30% along with a manageable walk rate of 6.5%. The hard contact is a little higher than it was a year ago, but not alarmingly so. Severino has been a guy that has kept the ball on the ground at a good level, and today he draws a favorable matchup against a middling Rays lineup. He’s death on right-handed hitters, and Tampa Bay doesn’t have many imposing lefties to give him much trouble, either.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite SP1 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays get a nice park upgrade going from Tropicana Field to Yankee Stadium, but that’s about the only good thing I can say about them. The matchup against Severino is brutal, so I don’t think a full fade of the Rays is going to be hurting you today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.330	0.349	0.119	31.4%	3.9%	17.1%	47.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.428	0.352	0.417	66.7%	14.3%	21.4%	22.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.325	0.345	0.142	38.2%	6.6%	20.5%	51.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.365	0.413	0.208	35.3%	6.1%	21.3%	45.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.286	0.285	0.103	36.3%	5.8%	20.5%	50.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.158	0.286	0.000	16.7%	9.1%	36.4%	66.7%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.284	0.295	0.102	27.6%	8.5%	18.1%	43.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.293	0.253	0.133	32.0%	6.7%	24.0%	37.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.218	0.221	0.179	30.2%	1.2%	31.7%	45.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.299	0.311	0.156	34.9%	6.9%	23.4%	45.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Ryan Yarbrough may be a reverse-splits lefty, but the Yanks still have a lineup heavy with RHBs and no shortage of power. Aaron Judge jumps off the board immediately in this matchup. Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton are also playable, though both have been quite cold lately. Gleyber Torres would be much more appealing if Aaron Boone didn’t stick him in the No. 9 hole all the time. Still, I think a full-on Yankees stack is certainly viable if you can afford them. You can also take some of them as one-offs in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.346	0.365	0.156	40.0%	13.7%	20.5%	44.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.363	0.320	47.0%	14.4%	29.2%	44.4%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.306	0.349	0.171	33.9%	8.5%	33.2%	53.4%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.336	0.179	0.224	35.1%	10.2%	26.1%	41.4%	C	$3,400	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.408	0.388	0.272	39.0%	5.6%	27.0%	29.6%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.349	0.340	0.262	41.4%	10.3%	13.9%	33.3%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.391	0.469	0.234	37.3%	3.7%	18.0%	48.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.280	0.266	0.294	41.7%	3.7%	27.8%	44.4%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.340	0.286	0.097	38.6%	10.2%	20.3%	40.9%	1B	$2,200	1B/2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.353	0.334	0.226	39.3%	8.9%	24.0%	42.2%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Chicago White Sox
			Jordan Zimmermann							Lucas Giolito
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CWS-110							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.306	34.0%	8.2%	23.3%	30.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.398	0.420	30.0%	16.7%	9.5%	35.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.392	47.7%	4.8%	24.2%	25.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.359	30.3%	10.9%	13.0%	46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%
	2018	7	3.96	4.88	23.7%	6.7%	27.7%	40.4%	21.3%

Jordan Zimmermann will be making his first start since Cinco de Mayo after missing time with a jaw injury. The veteran hadn’t been pitching poorly prior to going down, as evidenced by his 3.96 SIERA and respectable strikeout rate nearing 24%. There are some red flags, though, as Zimmermann has also yielded a hard-hit rate over 40% and he’s a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. While he draws a favorable matchup today against the weak White Sox, I might prefer a wait-and-see approach with him considering it’s his first start off the DL.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann is a playable SP2 thanks to the matchup, but I’m skeptical that he’s suddenly turned things back around this season.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lucas Giolito
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	7	4.49	2.38	19.0%	6.7%	45.0%	35.4%	19.2%
	2018	13	6.36	7.09	11.1%	14.1%	40.8%	30.1%	13.7%
	L14	2	6.50	4.91	8.5%	12.8%	43.2%	24.3%	18.9%

Lucas Giolito has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the game this season. His ERA is north of 7.00 (6.36 SIERA) and he’s allowed at least 3 earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts already. The hard contact rate of about 30% is manageable, but Giolito has a walk rate 3 percentage points higher than his awful 11.1% strikeout rate. The Tigers offense opposing him today isn’t scary, but where’s the upside here?

Quick Breakdown: Giolito is one of the easiest fades of the day.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers get a great matchup today against Lucas Giolito, who doesn’t miss bats and gives up plenty of fly balls. He’s gotten crushed by lefties to the tune of a .398 wOBA, but righties haven’t been much friendlier (.332). The problem is that the Tigers are tough to stack. I’d start with the few lefties here, which makes Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario elite plays. You can also take a flier on a cheap Victor Martinez, but he looks pretty washed at this stage of his career. Niko Goodrum has shown some pop, while Nick Castellanos is a flat-out good hitter that you can play despite the lack of a platoon advantage against Giolito.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.437	0.457	0.212	43.1%	10.3%	19.5%	35.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.316	0.309	0.212	34.6%	10.6%	25.7%	38.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.370	0.340	0.167	48.7%	3.7%	23.3%	31.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.361	0.336	0.092	45.7%	8.8%	9.9%	38.4%	C	$2,300	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.293	0.234	0.140	44.3%	3.4%	29.7%	40.3%	C	$2,600	1B/C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.351	0.363	0.243	37.7%	9.2%	31.9%	42.0%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.286	0.190	0.072	34.6%	6.6%	19.9%	38.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.276	0.315	0.112	24.4%	4.5%	12.0%	44.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.303	0.218	0.072	31.7%	6.6%	18.6%	44.7%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.333	0.307	0.147	38.3%	7.1%	21.2%	39.2%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw Jordan Zimmermann, who has been a gas can ever since joining the Tigers a few years ago. The right-hander pitched decently before getting hit in the face with a liner earlier this season, but he’s still giving up plenty of hard contact and fly balls. Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada stand out among the ChiSox hitters against him. Daniel Palka and Matt Davidson also have tons of power, though they do also strike out quite a bit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.379	0.282	0.220	43.0%	9.4%	34.9%	30.2%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.353	0.388	0.185	29.5%	4.0%	15.2%	45.4%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.399	0.301	0.206	37.2%	6.4%	16.9%	40.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.348	0.298	0.236	41.9%	3.5%	31.6%	41.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.407	0.308	0.230	45.3%	14.5%	34.9%	36.0%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.310	0.330	0.084	27.7%	9.8%	19.6%	38.5%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.282	0.229	0.179	25.6%	8.6%	28.0%	44.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.216	0.237	0.070	12.2%	2.2%	8.7%	57.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.253	0.295	0.094	22.0%	7.6%	28.8%	39.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.327	0.296	0.167	31.6%	7.3%	24.3%	41.7%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Kansas City
			Dallas Keuchel							Danny Duffy
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-179							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.302	26.7%	3.6%	22.9%	56.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.361	38.6%	6.7%	20.0%	30.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.317	31.9%	6.7%	16.7%	53.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.374	0.386	39.6%	11.7%	18.4%	31.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	23	3.61	2.90	21.4%	8.1%	66.8%	24.7%	25.4%
	2018	14	3.88	4.45	18.1%	6.0%	54.4%	30.8%	25.0%
	L14	2	4.15	9.82	10.9%	1.8%	52.2%	23.4%	23.4%

Dallas Keuchel hasn’t looked quite right this season. The former AL Cy Young winner has a 4.45 ERA, and the 12 homers he’s allowed is just 3 short of his total from all of last season. His 54.4% ground ball rate is strong, but it’s also down quite a bit from where we’re used to seeing it. Keuchel had a 66.8% GB-rate in 2017. The plus side today for Keuchel is that he faces a fairly punchless Kansas City lineup this afternoon. Keuchel doesn’t rack up tons of Ks to begin with, so the Royals’ high-contact numbers shouldn’t necessarily scare us away. Unfortunately, Keuchel doesn’t come at any sort of discount today.

Quick Breakdown: Keuchel is playable, but he’s a bit pricey given his shaky form of late.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Duffy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%
	2018	14	5.03	5.28	18.7%	10.8%	31.4%	39.4%	14.1%
	L14	2	5.48	3.00	19.2%	11.5%	22.2%	38.9%	22.2%

Danny Duffy has been all over the map this season. He was stellar in his last outing against the A’s, holding Oakland scoreless over 7 innings along with 10 strikeouts. The start before that, the Angels tagged him for 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings, and he didn’t register a single whiff. Duffman is a lefty with a wide split facing an Astros lineup today that may roll out 8 or 9 right-handed bats. We saw last time out that Duffy has big upside, and he’s still so cheap that he’s worth at least a look. Given the matchup with Houston, though, I’m not all that interested.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy has upside, but he could go south in a hurry against the Astros.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Duffy is a homer-prone lefty taking on a powerful Astros lineup today. Duffy has allowed a .374 wOBA to RHBs, and 15 of his 16 dongs allowed have come against righties, too. While I think Duffy is better than we’ve seen, I still think you can stack up some Astros against him in tournaments. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer are elite individual options, as usual.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.419	0.358	0.316	35.5%	9.9%	20.9%	48.4%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.396	0.430	0.224	38.8%	12.5%	10.2%	26.9%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.383	0.335	0.077	44.8%	4.8%	14.3%	28.8%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.368	0.286	0.145	36.6%	16.4%	22.4%	34.1%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.346	0.339	0.103	35.0%	2.9%	11.4%	36.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.348	0.399	0.310	31.2%	5.2%	14.3%	34.4%	C	$3,500	C	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.294	0.349	0.106	43.1%	6.9%	22.2%	39.2%	SS	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT	0.392	0.330	0.245	48.7%	3.8%	22.6%	51.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.215	0.224	0.132	20.0%	3.6%	50.9%	29.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.351	0.339	0.184	37.1%	7.3%	21.0%	36.6%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Kansas City

Dallas Keuchel has been struggling, but his ground ball tendencies mean he’s typically not a fun pitcher to be stacking against. Salvador Perez grades out as a strong catcher play at a weak position, but I’d limit the rest of my KC exposure to righties in GPPs. Mike Moustakas isn’t worth much consideration going lefty-lefty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.422	0.353	0.259	46.4%	6.9%	13.8%	33.3%	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.334	0.317	0.131	36.5%	3.3%	13.3%	41.1%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.352	0.414	0.317	37.5%	8.7%	21.7%	31.3%	C	$3,100	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.451	0.337	0.333	50.0%	13.8%	26.2%	50.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.453	0.276	0.100	41.2%	9.1%	13.6%	29.4%	3B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.225	0.153	0.080	21.1%	0.0%	24.0%	42.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.302	0.285	0.172	29.8%	4.6%	18.5%	45.7%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Ramon Torres	SWITCH	0.181	0.184	0.083	9.1%	0.0%	8.3%	54.5%	SS	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.314	0.297	0.100	34.8%	11.4%	22.9%	59.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.337	0.291	0.175	34.0%	6.4%	18.0%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Pittsburgh
			Luis Castillo							Ivan Nova
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-119							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.375	43.4%	10.4%	20.8%	41.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.384	0.431	32.8%	4.4%	10.9%	46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.323	32.7%	8.0%	25.9%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.311	36.2%	4.0%	26.3%	58.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%
	2018	14	4.03	5.79	23.4%	9.2%	45.0%	38.0%	19.7%
	L14	2	3.56	7.59	28.9%	8.9%	26.9%	50.0%	25.0%

Luis Castillo hasn’t gotten great results this season, but his numbers indicate there’s still a promising pitcher in there somewhere. His 4.03 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 5.79 ERA, and he still owns a decent 23.4% K-rate. The 38% hard-hit rate is concerning, however, and he has already allowed 15 dongs in his 14 starts. Today the right-hander gets a matchup with a generally uninspiring Pirates lineup in a pitcher-friendly park. The bad part is that the Bucs have been one of the best teams in the league this season in terms of putting bat to ball against right-handed pitching. Most of Pittsburgh’s best hitters are LHBs, which isn’t great given Castillo’s struggles against them this season.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo’s struggles combined with the Pirates’ low-K tendencies means he’ll be a fade for me today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%
	2018	12	3.71	4.68	19.0%	4.1%	52.3%	34.4%	17.2%
	L14	1	2.21	1.59	34.8%	8.7%	76.9%	30.8%	23.1%

I wrote in this space last weekend that Nova was one of the more vulnerable pitchers on the slate, and then he went out and struck out 8 Cubs in 5.2 innings of work. We have to rely on the larger sample here, though, and that indicates that Nova isn’t a pitcher to fear. The right-hander does well in terms of keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s a low-K guy that has been routinely crushed by lefties in his career. The Reds have enough solid left-handed hitters to where Nova grades out as a poor play today.

Quick Breakdown: Nova is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Nova is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and the Reds have a few LHBs worth playing. Joey Votto obviously stands out, while Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler and Tucker Barnhart also make for viable options at their respective positions. Jesse Winker will be in play if he finds himself hitting leadoff. A Reds stack doesn’t have a ton of upside given PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly ways, but I like Cincinnati’s lefties as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.359	0.421	0.202	39.0%	7.5%	20.5%	54.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,500
2	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.335	0.322	0.119	36.4%	10.9%	18.6%	41.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.467	0.442	0.157	37.2%	16.5%	11.9%	32.1%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,100
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.359	0.316	0.196	41.2%	6.6%	17.3%	40.8%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.396	0.421	0.239	44.1%	8.0%	17.3%	35.6%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,100
6	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.376	0.378	0.099	41.9%	12.6%	13.1%	42.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,700
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.294	0.329	0.087	29.9%	4.0%	12.1%	37.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,600
8	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.219	0.134	0.063	33.3%	11.1%	38.9%	77.8%	P	$7,300	P	$6,400	P	$12,800
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.242	0.257	0.062	17.0%	12.1%	27.3%	46.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.339	0.336	0.136	35.6%	9.9%	19.7%	45.4%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Luis Castillo is a pitcher with some pedigree, but he’s had a hard time getting left-handed hitters out so far this season. The Pirates lineup isn’t exactly an All-Star team, but there are some okay lefties in there. Corey Dickerson stands out above the rest, while Josh Bell and Colin Moran are viable tournament tries. This isn’t a great park for hitting and I think Castillo is solid, so I’m not all about a Pittsburgh stack in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.309	0.360	0.107	35.4%	5.6%	15.2%	33.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.322	0.339	0.182	38.3%	1.8%	15.8%	38.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
3	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.340	0.270	0.168	32.3%	4.6%	10.2%	31.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,300
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.364	0.341	0.153	32.6%	9.2%	16.2%	40.0%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,800
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.418	0.329	0.266	39.0%	11.9%	19.5%	33.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.332	0.329	0.137	31.5%	10.7%	18.4%	50.3%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.356	0.320	0.213	36.9%	12.4%	21.4%	33.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.344	0.437	0.168	28.7%	7.3%	19.1%	40.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,900
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.063	0.022	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	52.4%	70.0%	P	$7,700	P	$6,000	P	$12,100
	Team Averages		0.316	0.305	0.155	30.5%	7.1%	20.9%	41.3%

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Texas – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Texas
			Kyle Freeland							Mike Minor
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TEX-102							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.267	0.244	26.2%	10.3%	35.9%	48.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.348	38.2%	2.4%	16.7%	53.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.335	31.7%	7.3%	17.0%	48.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.374	0.380	42.1%	5.8%	20.4%	34.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		6 of 29
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%
	2018	13	4.06	3.68	21.5%	8.0%	48.4%	30.7%	21.5%
	L14	2	3.48	4.97	27.3%	9.1%	54.3%	45.7%	2.9%

For a guy that pitches half of his games at Coors Field, Kyle Freeland has been pretty good this season. His 4.06 SIERA is far from disastrous, and he’s struck out hitters at a 21.5% clip so far. The hard contact rate under 31% is also respectable. He’s a left-hander that generally keeps the ball on the ground, and he has held his fellow lefties to a wOBA of just .267. Most of the Rangers’ best hitters are LHBs, which makes me think Freeland is a sneaky SP2 play in GPPs. The pitching conditions in Arlington are suboptimal, but that’s nothing the Denver native isn’t used to.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is a viable SP2 today against the Rangers.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Minor
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,400	Salary:		$8,500
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		24 of 29
	2017	0	3.16	2.55	28.7%	7.2%	42.4%	27.6%	22.5%
	2018	12	4.15	5.65	19.9%	5.3%	37.6%	41.5%	16.1%
	L14	2	5.46	5.73	13.0%	6.5%	31.4%	43.2%	13.5%

Mike Minor has been one of the few (the only?) serviceable starter this year for the Rangers. His 4.14 SIERA is passable, though his K-rate of 19.9% is nothing spectacular. The hard contact rate of 41.5% is a concern, plus he’s a guy with a heavy fly ball lean. The Rockies have some imposing bats, but Minor is so cheap on DK that it’s easy to see him potentially paying off his price tag.

Quick Breakdown: Minor is so cheap on DK to where I think you can justify playing him as a punt SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

While I don’t think playing Minor is the craziest idea today, he’s still a homer-prone lefty with a wide split. Those are the kind of traits that make Nolan Arenado scream out as an excellent play, and you can say the same for Trevor Story. Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta look like decent options at their respective positions, as well. I’ll ignore a lefty like Charlie Blackmon in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.443	0.337	0.292	38.1%	12.5%	12.5%	47.6%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,600
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.333	0.287	0.143	28.8%	8.0%	18.0%	47.2%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,100	CF	$10,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.416	0.295	0.316	43.8%	17.4%	13.0%	34.4%	3B	$4,500	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,100
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.375	0.393	0.365	46.2%	11.6%	26.7%	26.9%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,100	SS	$9,000
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.317	0.367	0.257	40.7%	6.4%	21.8%	61.1%	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,900	LF	$7,200
6	Tom Murphy	RIGHT		0.275						C	$2,800	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.258	0.322	0.074	23.8%	3.5%	22.8%	61.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.322	0.362	0.094	40.5%	11.5%	19.7%	50.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	C	$6,300
9	Noel Cuevas	RIGHT	0.294	0.286	0.071	32.5%	2.3%	4.5%	33.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.345	0.325	0.202	36.8%	9.2%	17.4%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

Kyle Freeland has been tough on lefties in his career, which makes it hard to like many of the Rangers today. I respect Freeland enough to where I don’t really see the appeal in attacking him with a bunch of Texas hitters. Adrian Beltre and Robinson Chirinos are some decent right-handed hitters, but they’re secondary one-offs in this spot. This is typically a great park for hitters, but the Rangers have struggled with LHPs all year long.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.336	0.469	0.115	37.5%	10.1%	24.7%	44.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,200
2	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.278	0.282	0.113	32.6%	12.9%	16.1%	60.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,500
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.333	0.360	0.261	37.1%	5.1%	30.6%	54.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.367	0.343	0.057	44.8%	7.5%	20.0%	34.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,400
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.341	0.384	0.302	25.0%	9.9%	9.9%	33.9%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,200
6	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT	0.310	0.273	0.127	25.0%	15.4%	10.8%	41.7%	3B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,500
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.206	0.249	0.070	41.7%	4.2%	18.8%	41.4%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,400
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.336	0.335	0.231	50.0%	16.7%	33.3%	29.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.235	0.320	0.206	27.3%	2.9%	34.3%	45.5%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.305	0.335	0.165	35.7%	9.4%	22.1%	42.8%

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Plays – Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Delino DeShields

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 16th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Colorado at Texas – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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