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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 12th - Page Three

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-12 14:14:45

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Houston – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Houston
texasmlb Doug Fister houstonmlb Charlie Morton
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-260 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.346 42.0% 11.3% 18.9% 51.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.274 27.3% 9.2% 33.8% 46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.330 27.5% 7.3% 21.5% 48.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.304 26.4% 8.0% 21.1% 56.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 23 of 27 Salary Rank: 25 of 27 Salary Rank: 23 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.44 4.88 21.2% 9.7% 50.6% 32.5% 19.4%
2018 6 4.37 4.02 17.5% 8.4% 49.0% 41.2% 16.7%
L14 2 4.19 4.15 15.3% 6.8% 52.3% 40.9% 20.5%

Doug Fister is an extreme groundball pitcher that is more concerned with pitching to contact than generating strikeouts. He’s also facing one of the harder teams to strikeout in the Astros. I was going to write him off but I will say this, I can see some appeal with him as an SP2 if you absolutely need to dumpster dive with your second pitcher. The options down there are slim pickings with names like Homer Bailey and Ross Stripling. He’s my preferred option if you must punt, but this is a true YOLO play.

Quick Breakdown: You probably shouldn’t use Doug Fister but I will admit he’s probably one of the better options at the bottom tier if you absolutely need to save salary at your SP2. I’m not necessarily endorsing that you use him though.

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $12,800 Salary: $25,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 27 Salary Rank: 2 of 27 Salary Rank: 2 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1%
2018 7 3.47 2.16 28.7% 10.2% 56.1% 26.3% 26.3%
L14 2 4.06 2.84 27.1% 12.5% 48.1% 28.6% 25.0%

Charlie Morton’s ownership should vary greatly depending on which site you play on. For FanDuel, he’s $700 cheaper than Noah Syndergaard, gets to pitch at home and has the better matchup against the Rangers, who have the third highest K% against right-handed pitchers this year with just a wRC+ of 82 (Syndergaard faces a Phillies team with the second highest K% but a wRC+ of 99). On FanDuel I’d expect the gap between Syndergaard and Morton to be closer than on DraftKings, where Morton is actually $1,300 more expensive. This is significant given there’s a Coors game we all want exposure to, plus I like the Atlanta Braves and their prices are relatively high. I have a hard time justifying playing Morton over Syndergaard given their price difference. You can make a case Morton is the better tournament play because he has just as much upside and will likely come at lower ownership (and if Syndergaard bombs against the Phillies, you’ll hold the edge in tournaments). But in cash games, I think you play Syndergaard.

Quick Breakdown: This is a great spot for Morton but my recommendation for him depends on where you play. On FanDuel, I have no problem with Morton as your SP1 if you need the $700 savings down from Syndergaard. On DraftKings, I prefer Syndergaard in cash games. Morton is fine for tournaments if you want to be contrarian and pay up for him, as he will likely come in at lower ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.266 0.302 0.074 25.7% 9.2% 23.1% 47.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.383 0.302 0.192 41.4% 11.9% 21.5% 46.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.350 0.478 0.203 35.9% 9.5% 19.6% 44.6% OF $3,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.362 0.373 0.194 36.7% 8.9% 13.5% 43.0% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,700
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.382 0.394 0.332 46.6% 13.1% 34.6% 30.0% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,200
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.272 0.249 0.060 25.0% 11.0% 20.8% 44.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.314 0.211 38.9% 6.1% 24.5% 39.3% 2B $2,300 2B $2,900 2B $5,800
8 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.226 0.220 0.131 32.4% 6.1% 36.4% 40.5% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 1B $5,900
9 Carlos Perez RIGHT 0.220 0.100 0.075 37.0% 2.4% 33.3% 44.0% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,600

I’m a believer in Charlie Morton so I don’t envision trying to pick on him. Similar to what I wrote about Noah Syndergaard, the Rangers’ batters will likely have low ownership so you can definitely target some for one-off power if you want a low-owned bat, but I think that’s getting too cute. Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre and Joey Gallo would be my primary targets. But I’d rather search for my power elsewhere.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre (GPP), Shin-soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP), Nomar Mazara (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.365 0.369 0.215 36.2% 8.4% 19.1% 50.6% OF $4,700 OF $5,100 RF $9,800
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.366 0.381 0.182 29.8% 8.6% 12.4% 46.0% 2B $4,200 2B $5,000 2B $10,200
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.382 0.318 0.235 35.9% 10.6% 22.0% 46.2% SS $4,100 SS $4,900 SS $9,300
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.331 0.324 0.188 33.7% 3.3% 10.0% 45.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
5 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.348 0.430 0.166 33.6% 9.7% 15.5% 40.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.338 0.325 0.213 34.4% 10.7% 20.2% 44.0% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
7 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.308 0.184 0.159 32.2% 6.4% 19.7% 35.5% C $2,000 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.334 0.364 0.183 32.0% 9.9% 15.9% 35.0% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,300
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.261 0.234 0.243 31.7% 5.0% 39.7% 39.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,700

We’ll need to monitor the status of George Springer who was hit by a pitch in Friday’s game and left early. If he’s out, that would make life a little easier for Doug Fister and cause the Astros’ offense to take a slight hit. For our purposes I’m going to assume he’s out, but I’d consider him a secondary play if he makes the lineup.

I’m generally not a fan of stacking against Doug Fister. Yes, he did allow six earned runs in his last outing against the Red Sox. But prior to that outing, he hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts this year. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are options as one-offs and if you really want to throw together a stack in a large-field tournament because Vegas is higher on them than I am, I understand. There are just other pitchers with bigger blowup potential that I’d rather target.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Colorado – 8:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Colorado
milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson coloradomlb Kyle Freeland
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-125 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.282 30.4% 7.4% 23.2% 34.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.275 32.2% 6.1% 31.6% 35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.307 32.5% 7.8% 20.3% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.328 30.6% 9.7% 12.6% 56.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 27 Salary Rank: 21 of 27 Salary Rank: 20 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.14 2.74 23.4% 7.2% 39.2% 31.7% 19.9%
2018 8 5.07 3.97 16.3% 8.7% 36.4% 31.3% 23.9%
L14 3 5.91 5.09 12.3% 9.6% 30.2% 31.6% 22.8%

I don’t mind using pitchers in Coors under certain circumstances. This isn’t one of those circumstances. Anderson has really struggled this season with home runs (he has a 1.99 HR/9 ratio) and his 16.3% K% is the lowest it’s ever been in his career. I’m not taking a chance on Anderson here.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is in Coors and has been struggling with strikeouts and home runs. That’s not a good thing.

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 18 of 27 Salary Rank: 16 of 27 Salary Rank: 16 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.93 4.10 15.6% 9.2% 53.9% 32.0% 24.3%
2018 7 4.05 3.95 22.6% 7.7% 45.1% 26.5% 22.2%
L14 2 3.40 3.21 24.5% 3.8% 43.2% 26.3% 18.4%

Freeland has been fantastic against left-handers this season, so that’s going to help him against Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw. The Brewers have actually struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Freeland has quietly been good so far this season, and if you look at his splits, he’s been doing it both at home and on the road. The 22.6% K% that he’s shown this season is a bit of of outlier considering his career K% is just 16.9%. But he’s generating a lot of soft and medium contact this year. There is a ton of risk considering this game is in Coors, but I’m okay with the idea of some shares of Freeland as an SP2 in tournaments considering the pitching on this main slate isn’t pretty outside of the top two aces.

Quick Breakdown: While I generally don’t like using pitchers in Coors, I can see merit to using a small amount of Freeland as an SP2 in tournaments as the Brewers haven’t been amazing against left-handed pitching this season (this is a tournament only recommendation factoring in the pitchers on this slate and only if you play multiple lineups; I would not play him in cash).

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.362 0.357 0.231 37.4% 10.6% 11.7% 37.4% OF $4,300 OF $4,800 CF $8,900
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.330 0.358 0.126 32.7% 6.3% 20.2% 56.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 CF $9,000
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.412 0.334 0.267 46.4% 12.8% 9.2% 45.5% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,700 LF $9,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.249 0.305 0.181 27.1% 7.6% 25.9% 44.9% 3B $4,200 3B $4,400 3B $8,100
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.367 0.377 0.222 52.4% 10.5% 27.1% 39.0% 1B $3,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.231 0.273 0.109 27.5% 7.4% 31.5% 61.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,700
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.328 0.244 0.101 39.8% 5.0% 22.7% 36.1% C $3,000 C $3,000 C $5,900
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.243 0.259 0.050 27.3% 8.6% 19.1% 56.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.108 0.033 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 53.3% 60.0% P $6,000 P $5,700 P $10,900

Freeland has been solid against left-handed batters so I’m hesitant to use Christian Yelich or Travis Shaw here. You can certainly make a case for them in tournaments if you think their ownership may be lowered from the lefty-lefty matchup, but that’s more an ownership play. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar would be my priorities here, while Manny Pina and Orlando Arcia are cheap punts you can consider if you need Coors exposure.

Elite Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain

Secondary Plays – Orlando Arcia, Manny Pina, Travis Shaw (GPP)

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.332 0.374 0.081 28.4% 8.3% 14.3% 55.2% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,100
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.383 0.392 0.296 40.3% 10.8% 20.1% 35.5% OF $5,100 OF $5,600 CF $10,700
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.351 0.417 0.231 36.3% 9.4% 18.1% 36.4% 3B $5,500 3B $5,500 3B $11,100
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.330 0.199 0.191 30.0% 12.1% 19.7% 43.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.289 0.352 0.174 37.6% 7.8% 33.7% 34.8% SS $4,400 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.318 0.330 0.147 36.1% 5.9% 14.5% 46.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
7 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.252 0.285 0.110 27.6% 5.4% 26.1% 64.0% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,900 LF $7,600
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.339 0.319 0.238 37.7% 10.5% 29.6% 34.2% C $3,000 C $3,500 C $6,700
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.139 0.014 0.093 21.7% 2.2% 47.8% 70.0% P $7,000 P $7,000 P $13,500

Anderson has had home run issues and is a reverse-splits pitcher, so my preference would be the right-handed bats here. Nolan Arenado is an elite play and also has some nice BvP off Anderson (8-for-27 with four home runs). Trevor Story, D.J. LeMahieu and Chris Iannetta all stand out to me. Even though Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher, this is still a great spot for Charlie Blackmon.

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta, D.J. LeMahieu

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at San Diego – 8:40 PM ET

St. Louis San Diego
stlouismlb Michael Wacha sandiegomlb Tyson Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-109 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.335 31.5% 10.4% 20.1% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.368 37.0% 13.4% 17.8% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.312 29.8% 6.7% 23.5% 46.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.344 35.6% 12.3% 21.8% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 8 of 27 Salary Rank: 11 of 27 Salary Rank: 11 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.14 4.13 22.5% 7.9% 48.0% 28.0% 20.2%
2018 7 4.83 3.35 19.0% 11.0% 40.5% 41.6% 16.8%
L14 2 5.42 2.61 17.4% 13.0% 37.5% 46.9% 21.9%

Wacha gets the matchup all pitchers dream of – a matchup against the Padres in PETCO Park. Miles Mikolas and Luke Weaver have done well here the past few nights, and now Michael Wacha gets his chance. There’s really nothing special about Michael Wacha (as a pitcher, I’m sure he’s a nice person). He has an average 19% K% and is doing a good job limiting home runs (0.72 HR/9). The Padres have the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the majors, so even though Wacha isn’t a great pitcher, he’s getting a big matchup and ballpark boost. I don’t love the fact he has a massive 41.6% hard hit rate, so there’s real risk here he doesn’t excel in this outing, but the matchup doesn’t get much better. I think Wacha is in-play in all formats for this main slate, but it’s moreso because pitching is ugly.

Quick Breakdown: Although he’s a fairly average major league pitcher at this point in his career, Wacha is in-play in all formats because of the elite matchup against the Padres.

Tyson Ross
tyson-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 9 of 27 Salary Rank: 7 of 27 Salary Rank: 6 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 6.17 7.71 15.1% 15.6% 46.8% 32.3% 14.6%
2018 7 3.72 3.67 26.3% 9.1% 43.2% 42.0% 18.8%
L14 2 3.85 4.50 28.9% 11.5% 32.3% 67.7% 12.9%

On a normal slate I wouldn’t give Tyson Ross much thought, but this isn’t a great pitching slate. I can’t recommend him over Syndergaard or Morton, but if you want to use one of them as an SP1 and want strikeout upside in your SP2, Ross makes a lot of sense. His 9.94 K/9 ratio is the highest it’s been since 2015, so perhaps Ross is finally healthy once again. The Cardinals are pretty much league-average against right-handed pitching, so it’s a relatively neutral matchup for Ross. He is allowing a 42% hard hit rate so that’s a red flag, but he’s one of the few arms on the main slate that has the strikeout upside to even come close to Syndergaard and Morton.

Quick Breakdown: I’m viewing Ross as an SP2 in all formats given his strikeout upside.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.377 0.556 0.198 35.4% 13.3% 22.6% 50.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 CF $9,500
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.389 0.430 0.225 43.6% 17.7% 20.4% 25.0% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,600
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.407 0.456 0.157 37.0% 9.1% 17.1% 46.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.369 0.372 0.237 41.4% 7.9% 22.6% 45.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
5 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.355 0.288 0.233 36.8% 13.1% 21.3% 36.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
6 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.354 0.358 0.233 37.3% 4.3% 28.2% 31.8% SS $3,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.314 0.288 0.146 28.2% 9.3% 14.7% 47.2% 2B $2,400 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Francisco Pena RIGHT 0.411 0.133 0.400 27.3% 0.0% 25.0% 36.4% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,500
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.094 0.069 0.000 13.3% 1.9% 40.4% 72.7% P $8,300 P $8,000 P $15,300

I slightly prefer the left-handers against Ross, so that would put Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler on my radar. But if you look at the splits for Ross, he can be hit around by righties too. Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna and Paul Dejong all hit right-handed pitching very well, so I’m completely fine with them. Jose Martinez has to be in play because of his lineup spot and power potential, but I’d only use him as part of a stack.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Paul Dejong, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.241 0.269 0.076 28.1% 11.0% 26.4% 64.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.375 0.472 0.196 32.1% 11.8% 18.2% 51.7% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.298 0.305 0.141 31.5% 7.4% 21.0% 53.3% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,500
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.365 0.373 0.224 43.2% 9.4% 36.2% 42.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.321 0.334 0.118 31.4% 12.5% 24.0% 44.7% 3B $2,000 1B/3B $2,600 3B $4,800
6 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.333 0.320 0.291 47.1% 12.3% 33.8% 21.2% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $4,500
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.289 0.223 0.124 29.5% 8.7% 19.8% 38.1% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $4,500
8 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.294 0.279 0.125 26.4% 5.5% 20.9% 41.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Tyson Ross RIGHT 0.037 0.196 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $7,900 P $9,000 P $17,700

Wacha has shown reverse-splits so I’d actually prefer the right-handed bats of the Padres. The problem is they don’t have any good right-handed batters right now. Maybe this will backfire on me, but I’m expecting to be completely off the Padres (even against Michael Wacha) because there’s just nothing I love for them.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at LA Angels – 9:07 PM ET

Minnesota LA Angels
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson laangelsmlb Nick Tropeano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.330 34.8% 8.5% 17.4% 46.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.350 37.5% 7.1% 16.7% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.370 37.5% 9.7% 21.0% 54.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.382 51.6% 11.8% 25.5% 25.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 27 Salary Rank: 10 of 27 Salary Rank: 9 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 7 3.91 3.49 26.8% 11.0% 48.0% 38.0% 16.0%
L14 3 3.03 2.55 34.3% 10.0% 50.0% 47.4% 13.2%

I have no idea what Kyle Gibson is drinking, but I want some. He’s got a massive (and unprecedented) 26.8% K% , which is nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career average. He has 44 strikeouts in just 38.2 innings and it’s hard to argue against his results. The Angels are the third hardest team for right-handed pitchers to strikeout, so I don’t think Gibson has as much upside in this matchup. I will admit I am buying a little into this change, but I just can’t get on-board with Gibson in this matchup. Pitching is weak enough where yes, we probably do need to give him some consideration as an SP2 on this slate, but that’s as far as I’d go.

Quick Breakdown: While Gibson’s strikeout party continues, I question the upside in this spot against a contact-heavy Angels team. Gibson can be considered as an SP2 but I don’t think he has as much strikeout upside in this spot as his previous matchups.

Nick Tropeano
nick-tropeano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 4.46 3.42 21.5% 9.7% 38.1% 44.4% 9.5%
L14 1 4.23 0.00 22.7% 9.1% 46.7% 46.7% 13.3%

It may not be official yet at the time of my writing (very early Saturday morning), but it looks like Nick Tropeano will draw the start. He’s been on the disabled list with a right shouder injury and has been throwing some bullpen sessions. Because he’s coming off a shoulder injury and because there’s been very little information about his recovery status, I’m pretty hesitant about using him in this spot. I suppose that makes him an interesting GPP option, but it’s unclear how his bullpen sessions went and whether he’s on any kind of pitch count.

Quick Breakdown: It’s unclear how serious his shoulder injury has been or how his bullpen sessions went. I’m planning to avoid Tropeano without more information about whether he has any limitations.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.403 0.449 0.124 40.0% 13.2% 13.0% 49.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.325 0.244 0.197 32.4% 10.0% 20.2% 37.7% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
3 Max Kepler LEFT 0.331 0.342 0.210 37.6% 9.6% 16.4% 41.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.338 0.418 0.234 34.4% 6.7% 20.7% 30.6% 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,500 SS $9,200
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.356 0.396 0.268 34.7% 6.7% 17.1% 37.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,300
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.376 0.382 0.276 39.4% 12.5% 23.9% 33.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,600
7 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.293 0.263 0.212 42.4% 10.2% 32.2% 42.4% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,900
8 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.282 0.264 0.069 26.1% 10.1% 18.9% 40.5% SS $2,100 SS $2,400 SS $4,600
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.276 0.156 27.3% 5.8% 30.7% 41.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,600

Tropeano is best attacked with lefties, so Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar, the red-hot Eddie Rosario and Logan Morrison are very interesting. I also don’t mind Brian Dozier as a secondary play, although I much prefer him against lefties. The Twins may be an under-the-radar stack considering they have some sneaky power in the middle of that lineup against right-handed pitching.

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP), Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.328 0.304 0.236 30.8% 10.7% 16.5% 39.3% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,600 SS $7,500
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.444 0.513 0.357 41.7% 17.8% 18.4% 34.5% OF $5,300 OF $5,800 CF $11,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.352 0.383 0.234 40.2% 10.8% 29.7% 37.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.333 0.342 0.170 35.3% 4.8% 14.0% 42.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
5 Shohei Ohtani RIGHT 0.452 0.482 0.362 44.4% 6.0% 22.0% 41.7% OF $3,800 P $4,500 N/A N/A
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.314 0.369 0.153 31.9% 5.0% 9.3% 48.9% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.317 0.257 0.143 33.3% 8.9% 14.0% 36.1% 2B $3,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
8 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.320 0.196 0.133 33.2% 10.0% 22.9% 45.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 RF $5,500
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.294 0.320 0.153 26.2% 2.7% 22.4% 46.6% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,600

Your interest in Angels’ bats firmly depends on whether you believe Kyle Gibson is for real. Mike Trout and Justin Upton are in-play every night, but outside of those two I don’t know if I want to use right-handed bats against Gibson, whose changes I kind of think are real. It sounds like Shohei Ohtani will pitch on Sunday, so it’s likely he’ll sit on Saturday if that turns out to be the case since he generally doesn’t hit the game before he’s scheduled to pitch. For now I’m leaving him off my plays below but if something changes and he sneaks into the lineup, I would consider him an elite play.

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at LA Dodgers – 9:10 PM ET

Cincinnati LA Dodgers
cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-180 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.374 32.4% 11.1% 13.4% 41.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.245 0.249 23.8% 8.4% 23.0% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.392 38.1% 7.1% 16.7% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.302 31.4% 5.8% 25.2% 48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 27 Salary Rank: 27 of 27 Salary Rank: 25 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.19 6.43 16.0% 10.0% 44.6% 31.0% 16.5%
2018 8 5.19 5.61 13.2% 6.9% 39.3% 44.0% 16.7%
L14 3 5.92 9.64 7.6% 4.6% 32.7% 43.1% 19.0%

Bailey has a big 2.28 HR/9 ratio with a 44% hard contact rate. This Dodgers offense is struggling and got shut down by Matt Harvey, but I still can’t endorse Homer Bailey against them.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey’s underlying numbers aren’t pretty, and he’s not someone I can recommend right now.

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 27 Salary Rank: 26 of 27 Salary Rank: 24 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 3.37 3.75 24.3% 6.3% 49.3% 27.0% 20.4%
2018 2 3.84 1.93 24.0% 9.0% 40.9% 31.3% 22.4%
L14 2 4.07 3.60 20.9% 7.0% 50.0% 32.3% 12.9%

Stripling will draw the spot start but hasn’t gone more than four innings or thrown more than 68 pitches in any of his outings. He’s very cheap and it’s a good matchup on paper against the Reds, but I just question what his upside can be if he’s not going to be allowed to go deep.

Quick Breakdown: We haven’t seen Stripling pitch deep into games yet so despite the cheap price tag, I won’t be playing him.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.387 0.335 0.180 36.8% 13.8% 17.1% 44.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,800
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.286 0.274 0.080 22.7% 3.4% 12.9% 43.0% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.445 0.515 0.239 37.8% 18.5% 10.6% 36.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.346 0.334 0.236 37.9% 6.7% 20.3% 39.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.367 0.432 0.200 33.1% 12.3% 21.7% 38.3% 3B $4,000 3B $4,600 3B $9,200
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.343 0.427 0.132 34.9% 10.7% 16.4% 41.9% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $5,500
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.357 0.354 0.259 38.8% 9.5% 23.1% 45.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
8 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.126 0.067 0.031 12.0% 0.0% 37.5% 82.4% P $5,500 P $4,000 P $8,000
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.259 0.276 0.085 15.6% 9.6% 20.8% 47.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,800

Stripling has shown some reverse-splits tendencies in his time in the majors, meaning right-handed batters have done better against him. Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall (if he makes the lineup) would be interesting in that case. Even though they bat from the left side, Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are still good options here, especially if this turns into a bullpen game for the Dodgers after the 4th or 5th inning.

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez (GPP), Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler (or Adam Duvall if he starts)

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.343 0.381 0.205 33.2% 8.4% 24.7% 39.4% SS $3,600 OF/SS $4,000 IF/OF $7,300
2 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.364 0.361 0.203 33.6% 13.5% 19.5% 47.5% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.327 0.382 0.238 39.0% 8.3% 25.4% 41.0% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,500
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.356 0.333 0.297 42.1% 12.1% 25.7% 39.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,100
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.359 0.495 0.211 36.8% 4.0% 23.1% 46.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
6 Chase Utley LEFT 0.324 0.257 0.163 36.2% 10.0% 16.2% 44.3% 2B $2,500 2B $3,200 2B $6,800
7 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.368 0.241 0.238 35.2% 9.2% 19.3% 44.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,600
8 Max Muncy LEFT 0.330 0.326 0.194 33.3% 14.3% 28.6% 33.3% OF $2,200 3B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
9 Ross Stripling RIGHT 0.044 0.056 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% 33.3% P $5,800 P $4,400 P $8,200

We all fell for the Matt Harvey trap on Friday, and I wonder if that will lower the ownership of some of these Dodgers’ batters because they burned so many people. Perhaps this Dodgers offense isn’t as great as we think it is. At the same time, this is Homer Bailey we’re talking about. I’m willing to play the Dodgers one more night against Homer Bailey, and if their ownership is lower because of Friday night’s fiasco, that’s even better. It’s the same deal as with Harvey – focus on the left-handed bats (Pederson, Grandal, Bellinger) but don’t be afraid to mix in the right-handed power bats (Taylor, Kemp, Puig). Yes, we could certainly all be burned here again, but it’s a risk worth taking in my opinion.

Elite Plays – Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS