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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 5th - Page Two

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-05 19:48:22

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Colorado NY Mets
coloradomlb Chad Bettis nymetsmlb Steven Matz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-122 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.316 32.8% 7.5% 20.0% 48.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.302 21.7% 13.3% 13.3% 62.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.344 30.6% 6.5% 12.5% 46.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.364 36.4% 5.8% 20.3% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Bettis
chad-bettis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 4.74 5.05 15.0% 5.5% 48.4% 28.5% 18.4%
2018 6 4.79 2.43 17.4% 9.0% 45.1% 36.2% 16.2%

Bettis isn’t a big strikeout guy but he’s been surprisingly solid this season. With Bettis you aren’t hoping for the strikeouts, but rather that he goes deep enough into games with run prevention. He’s now reached the seventh inning in three of his last four games and gets to face a Mets offense that nearly got no-hit on Thursday by Julio Teheran. I do think he’s in the conversation as an SP2 because of his ability to pitch deep but he’s typically not the type of pitcher I target on large slates such as this one. If he happens to run into trouble or the Mets string together a bunch of hits, his inability to strike them out is worrisome.

Quick Breakdown: Bettis makes up his lack of strikeouts by going deep into games. While I do think he can be considered for an SP2 role, I generally like to target pitchers with more strikeout upside.

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.71 6.08 16.1% 6.4% 47.1% 32.9% 21.9%
2018 5 3.80 4.98 27.4% 10.5% 51.9% 35.1% 14.0%

Matz’ underwhelming season continues, as he’s now failed to go beyond 5.1 innings through his first five starts and has been dealing with back soreness. The Rockies are less potent on the road, and Matz does have strikeout upside in this matchup. The Rockies have a team K% of 26.9% against left-handed pitchers, third most in the majors. My concern is just that Matz hasn’t gone deep in any of his starts yet. He does have 26 strikeouts in 21.2 innings, but he’s not even averaging five innings per start. That’s enough for me to look elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Matz arguably has tournament upside in this matchup but his lack of pitching deep and the fact he had his last start pushed back to today because of back soreness is enough for me to take a wait-and-see approach.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.281 0.292 0.159 30.1% 6.8% 21.1% 66.0% 1B $2,700 1B/OF $3,200 LF $6,500
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.367 0.381 0.237 34.3% 7.2% 16.5% 50.0% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 CF $10,300
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.454 0.490 0.399 39.0% 11.3% 11.3% 23.8% 3B $4,700 3B $5,100 3B $10,100
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.348 0.392 0.337 47.7% 11.9% 34.2% 27.5% SS $3,600 SS $4,000 SS $7,300
5 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.341 0.307 0.221 32.9% 14.3% 21.1% 47.1% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,600
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.304 0.304 0.093 25.2% 4.3% 17.9% 49.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 LF $5,500
7 Noel Cuevas RIGHT 0.273 0.278 0.000 45.5% 0.0% 8.3% 20.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,500 RF $4,900
8 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.288 0.206 0.250 29.5% 7.0% 24.6% 31.5% 2B $2,000 1B/2B $2,400 SS $4,500
9 Chad Bettis RIGHT 0.056 0.036 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,400 P $7,700 P $15,500

I generally don’t like playing Rockies’ bats away from Coors, but we saw them destroy Zack Wheeler on Friday, so perhaps recency bias will pump up the ownership of the Rockies slightly more than usual. Nolan Arenado against a lefty is always in play, and Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta are in good enough spots to consider them. Iannetta especially is very cheap. I always like Charlie Blackmon in tournaments too when it’s a lefty-on-lefty matchup as that usually drives down his ownership.

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (GPP), Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.415 0.324 0.205 39.0% 15.9% 24.0% 39.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 LF $5,900
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.352 0.377 0.182 36.8% 9.5% 16.4% 40.3% 2B $4,000 2B $3,700 SS $7,500
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.338 0.351 0.228 39.5% 6.8% 22.2% 33.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.391 0.285 0.255 40.1% 10.2% 20.7% 33.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.355 0.329 0.180 31.8% 15.0% 21.6% 37.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.351 0.376 0.143 37.6% 8.2% 16.4% 36.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.251 0.318 0.097 24.8% 2.4% 29.3% 49.6% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.348 0.399 0.135 33.3% 12.2% 25.9% 48.3% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,700
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.248 0.537 0.000 11.8% 0.0% 26.1% 40.0% P $6,200 P $6,200 P $11,700

Bettis has actually shown reverse splits, meaning right-handers have had more success against him. For those reasons, Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes are the bats I’d be most interested in. Jay Bruce and Asdrubal Cabrera will bat from the left side but have enough power to be considered for secondary options.

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespdes, Todd Frazier

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at San Diego – 7:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers San Diego
ladodgersmlb Kenta Maeda sandiegomlb Bryan Mitchell
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-187 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.304 29.2% 7.2% 20.3% 38.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.368 33.3% 15.0% 12.4% 60.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.276 31.3% 5.9% 31.2% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.378 0.409 27.3% 10.6% 9.4% 49.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
kenta-maeda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $11,400 Salary: $22,300
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.79 4.22 25.1% 6.1% 38.1% 28.3% 20.9%
2018 5 3.40 3.76 28.8% 8.5% 43.1% 39.7% 13.7%

On to the 10-game main slate we go. Kenta Maeda is the top-priced pitcher on DraftKings but just the third highest on FanDuel, so there’s a huge difference. I personally prefer him on FanDuel but keep in mind that on FanDuel, he’s only gotten the Quality Start bonus once in his six starts this season because he generally doesn’t go deep into games.

The Dodgers combined for a no-hitter on Friday against the Padres. This game also takes place in Mexico, and there’s not a lot of great data on this ballpark. Maeda is a fine cash game option here given the matchup against a Padres team that leads the majors in K% against right-handed pitchers, and even though we don’t have a ton of data on the ballpark factors, the fact this Dodgers pitching staff just no-hit the Padres is enough to give me some confidence that good pitching can overcome any altitude or ballpark factors.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda is firmly in-play in all formats factoring in the matchup against a weak Padres offense that is strikeout happy against right-handed pitchers but I prefer exposure to him on FanDuel given the price difference where he’s the third highest pitcher on the main slate.

Bryan Mitchell
bryan-mitchell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 4.81 5.79 11.1% 8.5% 54.1% 23.0% 18.9%
2018 6 6.53 6.07 10.0% 16.4% 52.5% 37.3% 15.7%

Bryan Mitchell WHIP is approaching 2, which tells you how bad he’s been this season. He boasts a tiny 10% K% and while he showed promise in the Yankees’ farm system, that hasn’t translated to success in the majors yet.

Quick Breakdown: Mitchell is a pass until he’s shown he can handle major-league batters.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.341 0.363 0.209 33.2% 8.4% 24.6% 39.8% SS $3,300 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.366 0.377 0.207 33.0% 13.6% 19.5% 47.4% OF $2,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.323 0.326 0.236 38.7% 8.3% 25.4% 40.5% C $3,400 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.351 0.346 0.300 42.3% 11.8% 25.9% 39.1% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.349 0.415 0.208 36.1% 4.1% 23.5% 47.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,300
6 Chase Utley LEFT 0.330 0.292 0.161 36.2% 9.8% 15.9% 44.2% 2B $2,200 2B $3,100 2B $5,700
7 Alex Verdugo LEFT 0.332 0.365 0.179 33.3% 12.5% 12.5% 62.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
8 Max Muncy LEFT 0.334 0.370 0.233 42.1% 11.8% 32.4% 36.8% OF $2,200 3B $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.105 0.105 0.030 11.8% 0.0% 10.5% 69.2% P $8,600 P $11,400 P $22,300

Mitchell has actually shown some reverse-splits in his career so far, having been worse against right-handers. Still, he’s so bad that everyone is in-play here for the Dodgers. Keep in mind this is a fairly banged-up Dodgers team, so you can certainly stack against Mitchell here on the cheap but it will feature some relatively newer players in the majors. Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger are my two favorite options, while Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal and Matt Kemp are appealing too if you decide to stack. Bellinger was out of the lineup on Friday but I’m assuming it was a routine day off for rest. I do like the Dodgers stack here in high elevation but my priority would be on the top of the order.

Elite Plays – Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Taylor

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.297 0.278 0.124 25.8% 5.5% 20.1% 41.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.376 0.463 0.196 32.5% 11.6% 18.0% 51.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
3 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.305 0.364 0.189 26.0% 6.0% 28.9% 34.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,300 3B $8,000
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.360 0.449 0.240 43.1% 8.3% 37.6% 42.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
5 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.301 0.295 0.148 30.7% 7.4% 20.9% 51.8% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.293 0.204 0.126 28.8% 9.0% 20.0% 37.7% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,800
7 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.283 0.222 0.110 32.4% 8.4% 23.4% 38.6% 2B $2,000 2B $2,800 2B $5,500
8 A.J. Ellis RIGHT 0.285 0.265 0.149 27.7% 8.5% 17.0% 50.0% C $2,300 C $2,400 C $4,900
9 Bryan Mitchell RIGHT 0.109 0.097 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,400 P $8,300

I prefer left-handers against Kenta Maeda but the Padres lack quality left-handed bats. Eric Hosmer and Franchy Cordero are nothing more than tournament dart-throws. This is a homecoming game in Mexico for Christian Villanueva if you’re searching for a narrative, but Maeda has generally been good against right-handed bats so even a narrative-driven guy like me has trouble chasing that play here.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Franchy Cordero, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – RED

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Miami Cincinnati
miamimlb Caleb Smith cincinnatimlb Tyler Mahle
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-121 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.321 32.4% 9.7% 30.7% 37.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.390 42.4% 15.9% 21.5% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.379 36.5% 13.8% 27.6% 23.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.323 27.9% 4.0% 23.4% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Caleb Smith
caleb-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.86 7.71 20.9% 11.6% 27.6% 32.8% 19.0%
2018 6 3.62 4.40 33.9% 13.2% 28.1% 37.5% 14.1%

Caleb Smith snuck up on DFSers but the secret may be out on how good of a pitcher he is. Smith has struck out 19 batters over his last 13 innings. He has a massive 33.9% K% and while that’s likely unsustainable, his minor league numbers suggest the strikeout upside is real. I don’t love playing pitchers in Great American Ballpark but the Reds do have a 24.4% K% against left-handed pitchers. It wouldn’t shock me if the Reds tagged him for a home run or two in this park, but it also wouldn’t shock me if Smith racked up the K’s here. I love Smith in all formats and consider him an elite tournament play.

Quick Breakdown: While the ballpark isn’t great, I like Caleb Smith in all formats and consider him an elite tournament option because of his strikeout upside.

Tyler Mahle
tyler-mahle-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.53 2.70 15.2% 12.0% 52.5% 23.8% 22.2%
2018 6 3.56 4.32 27.3% 7.9% 36.8% 41.6% 11.2%

Mahle is coming off back-to-back performances that have seen him reach 26 DraftKings points. Now he gets to face a weak Marlins team that has the fifth highest K% against right-handed pitchers. That’s the good news. The bad news is he has a 41.6% hard hit rate and an uncomfortable 1.89 HR/9 ratio. Considering Great American Ballpark is averaging the most home runs per game this season, I’m a bit worried about Mahle in this spot. Mahle’s strikeout upside in this matchup is enough for me to consider him in tournaments but I don’t feel comfortable recommending him for cash games considering his high hard hit rate and home run ratio in Great American Smallpark.

Quick Breakdown: Mahle has strikeout upside and is worth some shares in tournaments, but his underlying numbers can’t recommend him for cash games in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.316 0.262 0.163 34.7% 6.8% 21.9% 37.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.342 0.437 0.174 34.3% 5.4% 18.1% 48.8% C $3,500 C $4,200 C $8,100
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.299 0.287 0.135 30.4% 4.1% 19.6% 53.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.402 0.367 0.253 40.0% 11.4% 19.9% 41.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,700
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.301 0.291 0.100 28.0% 11.6% 25.0% 57.0% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.286 0.280 0.109 21.1% 3.8% 14.3% 47.7% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,200 3B $6,600
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.305 0.327 0.089 23.9% 7.4% 11.1% 53.2% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 2B $4,600
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.256 0.329 0.095 32.3% 7.6% 36.4% 54.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
9 Caleb Smith LEFT 0.036 0.022 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% 100.0% P $6,900 P $7,200 P $14,700

Mahle has been worse against left-handed bats, so this is a spot where you can consider Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich as punt options if you want to chase their power in this ballpark. Outside of those two bats, I don’t have much interest here in anyone else. There are other offenses I’d rather stack so this is a spot where I’d look for some one-offs but not much else.

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.299 0.433 0.073 29.4% 8.9% 15.6% 41.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,500
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.275 0.284 0.050 23.4% 4.1% 12.4% 57.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.399 0.499 0.231 34.5% 17.4% 17.0% 44.6% 1B $4,300 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.368 0.456 0.229 46.0% 15.9% 24.1% 42.0% 3B $4,000 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.374 0.375 0.285 36.1% 9.9% 22.7% 39.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
6 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.254 0.335 0.165 28.7% 4.3% 28.4% 48.9% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,300
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.302 0.365 0.122 29.2% 11.6% 18.9% 63.5% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Tyler Mahle RIGHT 0.278 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $7,000 P $8,500 P $16,400
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.220 0.219 0.087 15.5% 3.5% 26.2% 43.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,400

I’m more likely to play Caleb Smith than pick on him with Reds’ hitters but if you want to chase the power given the ballpark, I would focus on right-handed bats. Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall and Jose Peraza are prime options, while Joey Votto is always in consideration when playing a home game regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Like I said above, I’m more likely to play Smith in this spot than play hitters against him, but I understand the stack if you go that route. That’s just not one I plan to take.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Chicago White Sox
minnesotamlb Lance Lynn whitesoxmlb Hector Santiago
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-110 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.364 31.1% 14.9% 14.9% 46.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.524 0.468 44.6% 18.4% 14.9% 39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.287 29.9% 8.0% 24.8% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.342 33.2% 8.0% 18.5% 28.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1%
2018 5 5.72 8.37 22.2% 19.7% 51.5% 41.2% 26.5%

Lynn has been downright dreadful this season, walking 23 batters in 23.1 innings. His WHIP is at 2.11 and we just saw Jose Berrios get knocked around by a White Sox lineup that featured six left-handers. Lynn is a fade for me.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn’s struggles continue and he’ll likely see a left-handed heavy White Sox lineup, which doesn’t bode well for him.

Hector Santiago
{height:130px;} FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 5.57 5.63 16.4% 10.0% 30.2% 36.6% 17.0%
2018 1 4.45 3.48 22.2% 11.1% 31.0% 31.0% 19.0%

Santiago threw 86 pitches in a spot-start last outing and will be asked to make another start as the White Sox need his innings. Santiago will face his former team in this #revengegame and he’s going to have the platoon-advantage against many of the Twins’ better hitters. The Twins also have a 27.2% K% rate (3rd highest in the majors) and just a wRC+ of 81 against left-handed pitchers so there’s strikeout upside here for Santiago. I personally don’t see myself YOLO’ing with Santiago but I will say he’s one of the better options if you are dumpster diving for a cheap SP2.

Quick Breakdown: While the matchup is in Santiago’s favor against a left-handed heavy Twins offense, it’s difficult to trust him in any format.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.388 0.266 0.284 37.2% 12.8% 17.6% 42.2% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,600
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.335 0.390 0.062 23.1% 10.2% 15.1% 57.5% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,700
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.338 0.331 0.165 27.7% 7.0% 18.0% 35.1% SS $3,900 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,600
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.255 0.303 0.104 27.4% 2.5% 20.6% 50.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 LF $7,500
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.316 0.361 0.168 29.1% 13.0% 24.3% 35.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.255 0.326 0.116 24.0% 5.0% 27.7% 45.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
7 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.261 0.293 0.121 38.1% 8.3% 33.3% 33.3% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,800
8 Gregorio Petit RIGHT 0.413 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3B $2,600 2B/SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.151 0.281 0.000 37.5% 0.0% 50.0% 87.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,400

We saw Minnesota tee off against TRL’s Carson Fulmer on Friday but Fulmer is a right-handed pitcher. The Twins are much better against right-handed pitchers than left-handers, which is what Hector Santiago is. Brian Dozier remains an elite option as he’ll hold the platoon advantage. Eduardo Escobar has also been on fire lately but is much weaker when batting right-handed, so I’m viewing him as a secondary play here. While I was all about the Twins stack on Friday against Fulmer, I’m less enthusiastic about it here.

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.384 0.449 0.250 45.0% 13.7% 33.7% 37.5% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.263 0.292 0.130 26.4% 3.4% 26.9% 53.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,700
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.371 0.401 0.236 40.0% 5.2% 16.3% 44.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,300
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.323 0.364 0.162 28.4% 10.8% 18.6% 39.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,900
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.321 0.429 0.249 41.8% 5.5% 38.3% 39.5% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,500
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.348 0.331 0.203 38.0% 6.7% 26.8% 43.3% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,700
7 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.290 0.315 0.229 37.9% 7.7% 36.5% 27.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $5,900
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.318 0.271 0.065 19.7% 12.4% 15.6% 43.3% C $2,200 C $2,200 C $3,900
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.218 0.253 0.088 24.8% 6.1% 36.9% 42.6% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,700

Update 3:47pm EST – Welington Castillo is back in the lineup.

The White Sox rolled out six left-handers on Friday against Jose Berrios and while they lost they game, they still were able to put up runs against him. I’m expecting the White Sox, if they’re smart, to use a similar strategy against Lance Lynn. Lynn is allowing an ugly 1.188 OPS to left-handers so far this season. I really like a White Sox stack here against Lynn, focused on the left-handed bats of Yolmer Sanchez and Daniel Palka (I initially included Yoan Moncada in this sentence but saw he’s banged up and may miss today’s game, so keep an eye on that. I’m not going to list him below but if he surprises and makes the lineup, he’s an elite play).

Lynn has also been bad against right-handers too, so ait makes sense to include Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson in a stack. Keep an eye out on Welington Castillo. He’s missed the last few games with ab pain but if he’s healthy and back in the lineup, he’s a nice option at catcher. He’s 8-for-12 lifetime against Lynn with three home runs if you wanted to chase that BvP.

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Yolmer Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico, Daniel Palka

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon milwaukeemlb Jhoulys Chacin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-107 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.338 27.2% 9.8% 16.3% 50.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.362 33.8% 12.5% 14.3% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.280 30.5% 5.7% 25.9% 48.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.279 27.3% 7.0% 23.1% 51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1%
2018 6 3.55 4.83 21.6% 6.7% 58.7% 25.5% 21.3%

After scoring negative fantasy points in back-to-back outings against the Tigers and Phillies, it was good to see Jameson Taillon bounce back against the Nationals. After two dominant starts to begin the season, Taillon has hit a bit of a rough patch lately. There are some decent signs though. While his ERA sits at 4.83, his xFIP is 3.45. Taillon’s K% is also at 21.6%, which is right around his career average. His hard-hit rate of 25.5% is also below is career average of 30.5%. We’re getting a pretty solid price discount on DraftKings where he’s at his lowest price all season, so I think Taillon warrants consideration as an SP2 in all formats. On FanDuel his price only dropped $300 since his last start.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon has struggled as of late but deserves consideration as an SP2 in all formats.

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2%
2018 7 5.52 4.54 12.9% 11.0% 46.4% 39.7% 17.2%

The dirt-cheap price of Jhoulys Chacin might be tempting on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft but I don’t think we need to go there on today’s slate since there’s no Clayton Kershaw type ace on the slate we need to jam in. The Pirates have the third lowest K% against right-handers and Chacin’s own K% is only at 12.9%.

Quick Breakdown: Chacin’s low strikeout ability coupled with a matchup against a Pirates team that doesn’t strikeout much is enough for me to pass on him.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.327 0.262 0.128 28.8% 7.9% 12.8% 49.5% OF $2,400 2B $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.339 0.306 0.178 29.9% 8.5% 13.9% 39.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.325 0.263 0.128 25.2% 7.3% 18.3% 47.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.325 0.266 0.188 32.4% 10.6% 19.8% 52.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.335 0.345 0.221 33.8% 6.1% 20.8% 36.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.347 0.414 0.158 34.6% 10.2% 19.9% 45.1% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,600
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.378 0.355 0.157 35.6% 10.7% 16.5% 41.1% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.299 0.261 0.144 27.0% 8.7% 16.7% 45.3% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,900
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.149 0.332 0.028 12.0% 0.0% 37.5% 78.9% P $8,300 P $7,400 P $14,900

Chacin has struggled with left-handed bats and the Pirates have three solid ones in Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson. Bell in particular has struggled this season but his price has plummeted as a result. I really like a three-man mini stack here of these left-handed bats. Starling Marte is actually a better hitter against right-handed pitchers so I don’t mind throwing him in a stack. And if you really want to go all out, Colin Moran is a left-handed punt option you can chase.

Elite Plays – Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Colin Moran

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.335 0.385 0.121 29.7% 9.4% 16.5% 47.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.367 0.398 0.171 39.7% 13.1% 19.7% 54.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,100
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.354 0.445 0.237 39.3% 6.3% 29.0% 37.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.371 0.433 0.259 39.5% 11.1% 20.8% 41.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.285 0.200 37.4% 11.0% 30.1% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.301 0.218 0.158 30.5% 6.6% 20.3% 37.4% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.267 0.249 0.122 34.4% 6.2% 29.8% 58.7% 2B $3,200 2B $3,200 2B $6,700
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.285 0.286 0.148 31.3% 5.5% 18.5% 52.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 SS $5,500
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.164 0.269 0.023 13.2% 0.0% 19.1% 61.8% P $5,700 P $5,000 P $10,300

Taillon has struggled more with left-handers over his career. Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich headline the options for the Brewers, while someone like Jonathan Villar would be interesting if he drew the start and led off. While I love the ballpark for power, I’m hesitant to chase it here against Taillon with right-handed bats. Ryan Braun has been out of the lineup for the past few games and if he misses another game, Domingo Santana would likely draw another start and the bottom of this order is somewhat questionable. I’ll point out that Hernan Perez has some BvP against Taillon (5-for-13 with three home runs) but it’s not a lock he’ll make the starting lineup.

Elite Plays – Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun (GPP if in the lineup), Christian Yelich, Jonathan Villar

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS