MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 1st

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-01 14:57:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Baltimore
			Deck McGuire							Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-117							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.187	0.277	30.4%	88.8	7.7%	39.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.313	25.8%	87.4	23.0%	44.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.550	0.556	69.6%	96.5	17.7%	17.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.363	37.3%	90.4	20.6%	49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Deck McGuire
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,100
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2017	2	4.56	2.63	19.6%	3.6%	28.6%	40.5%	11.9%
	2018	0	5.32	6.08	13.3%	10.0%	28.3%	50.0%	6.5%
	L14	0	6.07	5.40	4.8%	4.8%	31.6%	63.2%	10.5%

Deck McGuire, which sounds like it could be a name for a bully in Back to the Future, will draw a spot start for the Angels on Sunday. The right-hander has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen so far this season for the Angels and Blue Jays. He threw a season-high 55 pitches in relief a few days ago which was his season-high. The likely outcome here is that McGuire will pitch 3-4 innings before giving way to another Halos reliever today. He’s not a big strikeout guy to begin with, so he’s not worth considering on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Despite the 80-grade name, Deck McGuire should not be on your radar today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%
	2018	16	3.82	4.20	21.7%	6.2%	47.2%	32.5%	18.3%
	L14	3	4.74	2.55	19.2%	11.0%	46.0%	32.0%	22.0%

Kevin Gausman is something of a DFS enigma. He puts together enough decent outings to remain relevant, and his season-long numbers aren’t bad by any means. He has a 21.7% strikeout rate along with a respectable 3.81 SIERA. He has done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground, as well. The problem here is that Gausman will get blown up every now and then. His price tag is favorable, but he draws a tough matchup against a low-strikeout Angels offense today.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is playable in certain matchups, but not this one.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

I think Kevin Gausman is a serviceable right-hander, but he’s a serviceable right-hander with reverse-splits that allows plenty of power. Gausman has yielded a .368 wOBA along with 11 home runs against his fellow righties this season. For better or worse, the Angels’ lineup is extremely RH-heavy. Mike Trout is Mike Trout, while Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and Andrelton Simmons look like solid options, as well. You can take a shot with Luis Valbuena from the left side, but his fantasy production is almost entirely dependent on him hitting a home run. This is a good park for power, and the Angels stack up well against Gausman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.277	87.3	0.079	36.4%	5.2%	25.3%	52.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,700
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.450	92.4	0.310	46.5%	19.7%	19.4%	34.3%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,900	CF	$11,200
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.392	92.3	0.229	46.7%	11.2%	26.8%	43.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.359	90.5	0.172	42.0%	4.8%	13.5%	39.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.355	87.3	0.126	37.5%	5.9%	3.9%	48.9%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
6	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.289	89.5	0.151	40.2%	5.5%	33.2%	36.7%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.329	85.9	0.202	34.1%	8.4%	10.2%	39.6%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,300
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.270	83.8	0.119	29.7%	4.6%	23.7%	36.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
9	David Fletcher	RIGHT	0.166	77.1	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	23.1%	40.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,300	3B	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.321	87.3	0.154	37.0%	7.3%	19.9%	41.3%

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler

Secondary Plays – Andrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles will take their hacks against Deck McGuire to start the day, but this is shaping up to be a bullpen game for the Angels. LAA doesn’t have the greatest of bullpens, but the Orioles have a middling offense to begin with. Manny Machado is one of those hitters you can target in just about any matchup, but I’m wary of going overboard with the O’s in general here. Chris Davis has looked better of late, so I don’t hate him as a cheap source of power upside. Guys like Adam Jones, Trey Mancini and Mark Trumbo are secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.372	91.2	0.152	34.1%	9.2%	24.8%	48.9%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,300
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.352	89.1	0.194	33.7%	3.0%	18.0%	40.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.391	92.6	0.255	36.2%	11.1%	16.4%	33.9%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,200	3B	$9,900
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.377	93.5	0.230	42.4%	6.6%	23.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,100	DH	$8,200
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.263	85.6	0.061	30.9%	7.7%	37.6%	47.4%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.384	93.0	0.161	36.8%	8.2%	21.6%	42.6%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,700
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.240	84.9	0.041	22.6%	5.1%	26.9%	48.1%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,300	SS	$6,800
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.291	87.8	0.092	32.8%	7.8%	35.2%	49.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
9	Steve Wilkerson	SWITCH	0.183	59.5	0.000	0.0%	20.0%	40.0%	100.0%	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,600	2B	$5,100
	Team Averages		0.317	86.4	0.132	29.9%	8.7%	27.1%	50.0%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis (value)

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Detroit								Toronto
			Jordan Zimmermann							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.313	32.3%	88.7	22.5%	29.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.184	0.256	27.5%	88.0	30.3%	60.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.364	37.1%	88.8	22.6%	25.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.301	30.7%	88.8	26.2%	42.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%
	2018	9	4.03	4.35	22.5%	5.8%	27.4%	34.7%	20.2%
	L14	2	4.26	2.70	18.4%	2.6%	26.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Jordan Zimmermann is a lot like James Shields. He was once a good pitcher that eventually became a gas can before enjoying a frustrating resurgence in 2018. Zimmermann has pitched decently when healthy for the Tigers this season. The veteran has a decent 22.5% strikeout rate, while his 4.02 SIERA is an improvement over his 2016 and 2017 seasons. He is still an extreme fly ball guy allowing a hard-hit rate dangerously close to 35%. While he hasn’t gotten blown up yet, the Tigers have been careful with him since coming off the DL on June 16. He threw 79 pitches in his last start, which means he may top out around 90 today. Against a solid Jays offense on the road today, I see little reason to take a chance with Zimmermann.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann isn’t a guy you want to be playing today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,700
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%
	2018	16	3.42	3.62	27.0%	6.9%	45.5%	30.1%	20.3%
	L14	2	3.86	4.40	20.7%	3.5%	40.9%	31.8%	13.6%

J.A. Happ has been solid this season for the Jays. So much so that it remains to be seen how many more starts he’ll be making in a Toronto uniform. The veteran southpaw has a 27% K-rate along with a 3.41 SIERA. Happ has kept the hard contact down while inducing 45.5% ground balls. He has still allowed 13 dongs on the year, but the home run downside is mitigated in a matchup against a weak Detroit offense. Given the price, matchup and upside, Happ is my favorite pitching option on the afternoon slate.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is one of the best options on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers get a less-than-favorable matchup against J.A. Happ. The one thing about Happ is that he’s a lefty with a wide split, and the Tigers do have quite a few righties. Of course, most of said righties are bad hitters. I won’t be surprised if Nick Castellanos hits a round-tripper here, but Detroit’s offense in general makes for an unappealing option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.355	87.1	0.284	41.3%	9.3%	28.0%	47.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,400
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.350	85.2	0.222	25.0%	5.9%	5.9%	34.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.391	88.7	0.171	48.2%	7.8%	18.2%	35.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,500
4	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.380	90.4	0.163	29.4%	13.7%	19.6%	38.2%	C	$2,600	1B/C	$3,200	1B	$6,300
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.329	87.1	0.113	29.6%	6.1%	12.1%	46.3%	C	$2,400	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,900
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.375	88.8	0.158	40.6%	13.6%	13.6%	56.3%	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,400	1B	$6,400
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.453	90.8	0.224	46.2%	9.3%	18.5%	38.5%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.262	91.7	0.131	51.2%	4.5%	26.9%	46.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.251	91.5	0.222	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.350	89.0	0.188	40.2%	7.8%	19.6%	45.7%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays will be facing Jordan Zimmerman, a reverse-splits right-hander that allows plenty of hard contact and plenty of fly balls. Zimmermann hasn’t been awful this seaosn, but this is still a solid spot for the Jays’ bats. Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin and Randal Grichuk grade out well here. I’m not against the lefties either, so you can always take a shot with a Justin Smoak or a Yangervis Solarte. I’m hesitant to call the Jays one of my favorite stacks, but they should put a few runs on the board today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.361	89.0	0.229	40.2%	13.6%	29.1%	32.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,300
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.384	92.4	0.243	41.3%	4.3%	25.9%	36.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,100
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.349	88.6	0.173	30.9%	7.9%	16.3%	42.0%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,300	3B	$8,500
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.382	92.2	0.216	35.8%	17.9%	27.4%	33.9%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.341	88.5	0.163	35.5%	4.5%	20.3%	39.4%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.317	90.4	0.159	32.3%	16.1%	24.2%	46.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	C	$5,500
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.356	91.9	0.309	42.7%	8.5%	25.5%	41.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,300
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.351	89.4	0.206	36.1%	3.4%	13.5%	42.6%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,800
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.279	88.7	0.116	25.3%	5.0%	24.0%	61.4%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.347	90.1	0.202	35.6%	9.0%	22.9%	41.7%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Houston								Tampa Bay
			Charlie Morton							Blake Snell
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-123							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.306	41.3%	89.7	39.0%	45.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.171	0.260	34.6%	85.8	32.2%	46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.280	30.3%	86.3	22.7%	55.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.311	34.2%	86.4	26.9%	39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$23,800
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	25	3.70	3.62	26.4%	8.1%	51.8%	26.9%	22.1%
	2018	16	3.26	2.54	31.0%	9.9%	51.4%	34.8%	21.4%
	L14	3	3.36	1.42	34.2%	13.2%	53.8%	41.0%	30.8%

Charlie Morton recovered from a few wobbly starts to strike out 13 Blue Jays in 7 innings of work in his last start. Morton has an elite 31% K-rate on the season, but he can get himself into trouble with walks. Morton’s walk rate is hovering at a dangerous 9.9%, and he walked a total of 14 hitters over his 3 subpar starts prior to his last outing. His 3.27 SIERA is higher than his 2.54 ERA, but both are positive numbers. Morton is a right-hander with a ground ball rate over 51%. He gets a park upgrade today going into spacious Tropicana Field to face a generally underwhelming Rays offense. The problem is the price tag. Morton grades out decently enough, but he’s the most expensive pitcher on the afternoon slate by a huge margin. You can play him if you have the funds, but I think there are better ways to spend your salary.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is solid today, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a wise way to be spending up.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$21,200
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	33.2%	18.8%
	2018	17	3.68	2.31	28.1%	10.0%	41.1%	34.3%	18.6%
	L14	3	4.78	2.37	31.2%	19.5%	50.0%	39.5%	10.5%

Blake Snell is far from a household name, but he has quietly been excellent this season. The lefty has a 28.1% strikeout rate alongside a SIERA of 3.69. He has a fly ball tendency, but those have a way of turning into easy outs whenever he’s pitching at the Trop. One problem for Snell in the past has been walks, and his BB-rate is sitting at 10% again this season. He has walked at least 4 guys in each of his last 3 starts. Snell has allowed a hard contact rate over 34% and he has already given up 11 homers. He also draws a tough matchup with an Astros lineup featuring plenty of right-handed hitters. Snell has the K upside to thrive in any matchup, but, like Morton, you’re having to pay a premium.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is too pricey for my taste, especially in a risky matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

While Snell has been effective this season, he’s still a lefty with some control issues and a wide platoon split. 10 of the 11 homers he’s served up this season have come from right-handed hitters, of which the Astros have plenty. Alex Bregman is on another planet right now, and he makes for a strong play if you can afford him. Ditto for Jose Altuve. George Springer is in the midst of a slump, but I don’t mind the play, especially considering he’ll likely be low owned. Evan Gattis also grades out as a strong option at a thin catcher position. Snell is a good pitcher, though, so I don’t necessarily find myself stacking Houston bats against him. You can limit your exposure to those 4 RHBs in some way or another.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.409	88.8	0.274	35.5%	10.9%	19.1%	50.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.400	89.6	0.278	43.0%	12.4%	11.4%	24.1%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,200	3B	$9,500
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.419	90.9	0.091	46.8%	8.2%	12.2%	28.9%	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,700
4	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.335	89.5	0.085	33.3%	5.7%	11.5%	37.5%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,700
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.337	88.9	0.259	27.4%	6.5%	14.0%	35.6%	C	$3,000	C	$4,100	C	$8,500
6	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.308	85.4	0.208	38.9%	5.9%	23.5%	31.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.275	89.7	0.094	39.1%	5.5%	24.2%	42.2%	SS	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,900
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT	0.368	91.8	0.250	46.5%	4.6%	26.2%	51.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,600
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.258	85.7	0.121	29.4%	4.3%	45.7%	24.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.345	88.9	0.184	37.8%	7.1%	20.9%	36.1%

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Evan Gattis, George Springer

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been pesky against Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander over the last couple of days. They may well prove pesky again today against Charlie Morton, but Morton is another pitcher we shouldn’t necessarily be actively targeting with bats. Morton does have some pretty staunch reverse-splits, so a power-hitting righty like Wilson Ramos makes some sense, especially at a discount. Still, the Rays have a low implied total and they’re taking their swings at home, which makes them an unappealing option in general.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.254	87.1	0.067	28.6%	13.2%	32.1%	53.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.326	87.8	0.132	32.4%	5.3%	16.0%	49.7%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.364	92.5	0.233	43.3%	18.9%	24.5%	40.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,300
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.347	90.5	0.155	38.2%	7.7%	20.3%	52.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.278	89.5	0.090	35.2%	4.9%	22.5%	51.0%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,700
6	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.345	87.1	0.202	33.8%	5.8%	26.0%	45.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
7	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.329	86.8	0.133	35.2%	14.4%	26.1%	48.9%	SS	$2,200	OF	$2,000	2B	$5,900
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.279	84.0	0.091	26.3%	8.5%	18.4%	47.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
9	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.204	82.4	0.083	16.7%	9.8%	31.7%	50.0%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.303	87.5	0.132	32.2%	9.8%	24.2%	48.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Freddy Peralta							Matt Harvey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-123							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.233	0.258	22.7%	83.2	40.4%	36.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.371	0.396	43.7%	90.2	15.2%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.090	0.172	33.3%	88.9	43.2%	29.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.341	36.6%	88.5	18.3%	45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Freddy Peralta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30

	2018	4	2.48	1.59	41.7%	10.7%	33.3%	27.5%	20.0%
	L14	2	2.18	0.00	38.6%	2.3%	24.0%	26.9%	19.2%

Freddy Peralta has lit the majors on fire since his call-up in May. The rookie has an electrifying 41.7% strikeout rate along with a SIERA of 2.48. Of course, both of those numbers will see some regression as the season goes on. He still grades out as a solid source of strikeouts, but the right-hander has also walked 10.7% of opposing hitters with an extreme fly ball lean. While he’s an intriguing prospect, Peralta is way overpriced given his track record to this point. The Reds aren’t exactly the Red Sox when it comes to bats, but this is still a decent lineup taking their hacks in a hitter-friendly park. Peralta has tons of GPP upside, but that is a tough price tag to stomach for cash games.

Quick Breakdown: I love Peralta’s upside for tournaments but there are better routes for cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,300	Salary:		$8,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2017	18	5.44	6.70	15.6%	10.9%	43.0%	32.5%	24.1%
	2018	13	4.53	5.28	16.8%	6.5%	41.3%	40.1%	14.9%
	L14	3	4.70	3.06	14.3%	5.7%	43.1%	41.5%	18.9%

Matt Harvey has looked better since moving to Cincinnati, but it’s pretty clear that he still isn’t the guy we saw during his early days with the Mets. Harvey’s strikeout rate on the year is still just 16.8% and he has allowed a hard contact rate north of 40%. His 4.52 SIERA is an improvement on his 5.28 ERA, but it’s certainly nothing special. Harvey has also allowed a .371 wOBA and 8 home runs to lefties. The Brewers are a solid lineup in general, so I don’t see much reason to risk it with Harvey today. You can take the full punt with him considering he’s insanely cheap, but he doesn’t have much upside.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey has minimal upside these days.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Sunday brings yet another matchup in which Brewers left-handed hitters should thrive. Matt Harvey has been struggling against hitters of either handedness for a few years, but he’s been even more susceptible against lefties. That means you can once again fire up some Milwaukee LHBs here. Eric Thames is one of the top options of the entire slate, while Jonathan Villar, Brad Miller and Travis Shaw aren’t far behind. You can also take a shot with Christian Yelich if he returns to action. Righties aren’t off limits against Harvey, so don’t hesitate to go with Cain, Aguilar or Braun here, either.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.351	91.9	0.189	42.4%	12.2%	29.9%	34.1%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.403	92.0	0.330	48.4%	10.3%	28.0%	32.8%	1B	$4,200	1B/OF	$5,000	1B	$9,600
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.412	91.2	0.309	45.4%	8.2%	26.6%	29.4%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,500	1B	$10,000
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.405	89.9	0.297	40.9%	13.6%	18.4%	34.4%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.332	91.2	0.196	36.5%	4.3%	24.5%	47.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.296	86.2	0.149	36.2%	5.0%	20.8%	43.1%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,700
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT								OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,500
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.230	86.0	0.065	24.8%	3.8%	25.2%	58.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,900
9	Freddy Peralta	RIGHT	0.029	71.3	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	71.4%	100.0%	P	$8,500	P	$10,100	P	$19,600
	Team Averages		0.307	87.5	0.192	34.3%	7.2%	30.6%	47.4%

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Brad Miller, Travis Shaw, Jonathan Villar, Christian Yelich (if in the lineup)

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Freddy Peralta looks like a tough customer, but he is still a rookie righty with a walk problem. I’m intrigued enough by Peralta’s talent to where I’m not crazy about stacking the Reds, but you can always take your shots with lefties against him in GPPs. That means Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker look serviceable here. While I’m not all that into Peralta today, I don’t see much reason to load up on Reds against him, either.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.364	90.4	0.227	41.0%	8.0%	21.8%	50.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
2	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.339	86.6	0.116	39.2%	9.8%	18.2%	39.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.469	89.5	0.175	40.0%	18.4%	12.7%	32.3%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,700
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.352	86.8	0.189	38.2%	7.5%	17.5%	39.3%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,400
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.397	90.8	0.266	46.4%	8.8%	18.0%	37.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,000	3B	$9,600
6	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.382	90.6	0.105	42.9%	13.5%	12.5%	41.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,400
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.302	82.4	0.086	30.5%	5.2%	12.1%	38.2%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,100
8	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.170	75.6	0.000	18.8%	4.3%	26.1%	53.8%	P	$5,900	P	$4,300	P	$8,200
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.253	78.6	0.077	19.2%	12.0%	25.5%	45.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.336	85.7	0.138	35.1%	9.7%	18.3%	42.0%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Miami
			Steven Matz							Dan Straily
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-104							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.281	9.8%	82.2	17.3%	77.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.370	0.408	48.2%	89.2	19.7%	26.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.329	40.2%	88.9	22.6%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.432	49.3%	89.4	19.4%	36.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%
	2018	15	4.18	3.69	21.4%	9.2%	52.6%	33.2%	16.8%
	L14	3	3.58	4.19	19.8%	3.7%	52.5%	40.0%	21.7%

Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard get all of the attention for the Mets, but Steven Matz is enjoying a decent season of his own. The southpaw has a 21.4% strikeout rate and a SIERA of 4.18. His 9.2% walk rate can be trouble, but Matz has kept the ball on the ground at a 52.6% clip without allowing a ton of hard hits. Matz has allowed 13 homers in 15 starts, but that danger is mitigated today going into Marlins Park to face a weak Marlins offense. Miami doesn’t swing-and-miss as often as we might like, but we’re getting a huge discount on Matz today in what generally shapes up to be a favorable matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Matz looks like the perfect SP2 to pair with a more expensive option, especially in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,000
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2017	33	4.43	4.26	22.1%	7.8%	34.2%	32.6%	19.1%
	2018	11	4.84	4.82	19.6%	10.9%	31.1%	48.7%	11.5%
	L14	3	3.68	7.11	25.0%	5.4%	28.6%	50.0%	19.4%

Dan Straily has struggled this season since coming off the DL. The right-hander has a 4.85 SIERA along with an unimpressive strikeout rate under 20%. His walk rate is also sitting at 10.9%, which is ugly, and opposing hitters have a crazy 48.7% hard-hit rate against him. Straily has also conceded 12 home runs in his 11 starts. There is certainly an avenue for Straily to enjoy a solid outing today against a mediocre Mets lineup, and he doesn’t make for the worst punt pitching option if you have some risk tolerance. If forced to choose, though, I’d still prefer to spend the extra cash to get Matz on the other side of this game.

Quick Breakdown: Straily isn’t the worst option on the board today, but I’d prefer to see him flash some consistent form before playing him.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Straily has allowed a .370 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. While the Mets don’t have a strong lineup in general, lefties like Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto profile well in this spot. Straily is a fly ball pitcher allowing tons of hard contact. While this isn’t a good park at all for power, I think Nimmo, Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera are playable as individual options. I’ll stop short of advocating a full NYM stack, but that lefty trio deserves consideration.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.404	90.5	0.326	39.8%	12.3%	22.7%	30.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,900
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.363	93.2	0.172	55.3%	15.7%	30.0%	39.5%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,400
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.382	90.4	0.220	44.1%	6.4%	20.0%	38.1%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200	SS	$8,400
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.357	87.8	0.157	33.3%	16.8%	20.4%	35.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.327	88.0	0.244	37.7%	9.1%	12.1%	37.7%	1B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,700
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.358	91.2	0.166	46.4%	10.1%	22.0%	35.7%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.335	87.2	0.218	32.5%	7.2%	18.9%	33.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
8	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.275	87.2	0.108	26.4%	3.2%	20.9%	49.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.169	74.1	0.059	14.3%	0.0%	26.3%	58.3%	P	$6,900	P	$6,800	P	$13,900
	Team Averages		0.330	87.7	0.186	36.6%	9.0%	21.5%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

I have plenty of interest in Steven Matz today, but he is still a lefty with a wide split that will serve up some home runs. Right-handers have a .332 wOBA and have accounted for 11 of the 13 bombs Matz has allowed. The Marlins aren’t really on my radar, but someone like Brian Anderson, J.T Realmuto or Starlin Castro could be worth a look in tournaments given Matz’ problems against righties. I have no interest in someone like Justin Bour or Derek Dietrich in lefty-lefty matchups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.334	89.8	0.077	41.9%	13.2%	18.7%	48.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,500
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.413	92.6	0.174	49.4%	11.5%	14.4%	50.6%	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.333	85.7	0.145	36.8%	5.1%	28.8%	36.8%	C	$3,100	C	$4,800	C	$9,100
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.312	86.5	0.066	28.8%	16.5%	22.9%	59.1%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,900
5	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.334	88.8	0.174	36.5%	4.3%	26.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
6	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.315	85.6	0.097	23.4%	8.6%	11.1%	26.6%	3B	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
7	Yadiel Rivera	RIGHT	0.330	92.5	0.061	47.8%	24.4%	24.4%	60.9%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,700	2B	$5,500
8	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.122	101.2	0.000	100.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$6,200	P	$5,800	P	$11,000
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.122	101.2	0.000	100.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$6,200	P	$5,800	P	$11,000
	Team Averages		0.291	91.5	0.088	51.6%	9.3%	31.1%	59.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 1st

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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