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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 14th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-05-15 01:14:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Seattle at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Seattle Toronto
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-130 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.337 33.9% 8.4% 16.9% 51.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.344 32.9% 11.2% 21.5% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.319 35.3% 7.2% 19.5% 31.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.289 27.8% 4.7% 18.9% 58.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 7 4.32 5.20 19.0% 7.0% 42.0% 31.9% 16.4%

I wanted to start by wishing all of the moms out there a happy Mother’s Day! With that said, let’s get into the games.

Miranda is a fly ball pitcher with a home run weakness, and he’s heading to the Rogers Centre…not an ideal situation for the young lefty. While targeting pitchers against the Blue Jays has been a profitable strategy this year, let’s be clear: this is a pitcher with little strikeout upside who has been able to take advantage of spacious SafeCo Field (5.98 xFIP away, 4.12 home), and now he’s getting a huge negative park shift. I’m much more interested in targeting the surging Blue Jays bats than I am in rostering Miranda.

Quick Breakdown: Miranda will likely give up a home run or two in this matchup. In DFS, we want the guys who aren’t going to give up home runs. Avoid in all formats.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.01 3.00 20.4% 8.0% 54.4% 30.3% 20.7%
2017 3 4.68 4.05 18.2% 9.1% 37.5% 30.0% 15.0%

Sanchez returns to the Jays rotation after missing some time with a split middle fingernail (which is right up there with Rich Hill and his perpetual blisters as a type of injury you only hear about in baseball). Toronto’s young right-hander has been elite throughout his career against right-handed hitters (.233 career wOBA, 23.8% hard hits vs. RHB), and last season, I loved targeting Sanchez against teams that lacked quality lefty bats. That’s not the Mariners, who feature a number of solid lefties. To compound matters, we just haven’t seen anything from Sanchez this year. He’s only really pitched in two games (discounting the last start in which he left after three batters), and in one of them, he gave up five earned runs and three long balls to the Orioles. I think it’s fair to take a wait-and-see approach with Sanchez, especially considering the Mariners’ 119 wRC+ against RHP is fourth-best in MLB.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is a pitcher in the Marcus Stroman mold in that he’s safe without particularly high upside. This isn’t the right matchup. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.388 0.342 0.185 29.1% 5.0% 12.7% 52.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,400 SS $8,700
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.346 0.333 0.134 31.7% 14.0% 26.0% 33.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.403 0.400 0.276 38.6% 8.4% 12.4% 43.8% 2B $4,200 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.378 0.384 0.240 35.2% 8.8% 24.1% 43.0% OF $4,400 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.377 0.405 0.214 39.6% 12.5% 14.3% 34.7% 3B $3,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.318 0.320 0.152 30.4% 7.2% 24.2% 42.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,300 3B $6,400
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.327 0.303 0.070 14.3% 9.9% 15.8% 46.3% OF $3,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.290 0.327 0.071 27.9% 10.1% 16.2% 45.3% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.291 0.270 0.093 16.2% 8.0% 12.6% 52.2% OF $3,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

As I mentioned, Sanchez has a long track record of high ground balls and low hard hits against righties, so we can rule out Nelson Cruz and Jean Segura. That leaves us with the lefties, all of whom get a nice ballpark boost, moving from SafeCo Field to the Rogers Centre. Given Sanchez’s ground ball profile, we should prioritize hitters with high fly ball rates against righties. Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano (if he plays) both fit the bill. Ben Gamel has been hitting well near the top of the lineup, but his price tag has risen to the point that he’s no longer a value.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.327 0.295 0.142 32.9% 2.7% 14.8% 37.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.297 0.356 0.160 37.6% 13.0% 18.8% 38.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.383 0.396 0.215 38.3% 4.9% 19.3% 36.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.324 0.363 0.189 38.0% 8.2% 16.4% 40.2% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.387 0.359 0.266 45.6% 12.1% 24.2% 36.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.264 0.276 0.085 23.4% 2.5% 20.5% 43.6% 2B $2,300 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
7 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.337 0.311 0.098 28.7% 7.5% 16.4% 42.0% SS $2,200 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,700
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.207 0.225 0.039 20.5% 1.9% 22.6% 65.8% 2B $2,400 SS $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.288 0.276 0.200 41.7% 2.7% 32.4% 39.1% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,800

After posting MLB’s 27th-highest team ISO in April (.122), the Jays are ranked fourth in MLB in team ISO in May (.198). Even without a depleted lineup, they’re starting to score runs, and with a 4.68 implied run total, we should consider a few of their bats. It starts with Jose Bautista, who is red hot, with homers in three of his last four. Steve Pearce hasn’t gotten it going against lefties this season, but he has a long reputation of crushing southpaws (.373 wOBA, .263 ISO against LHP since 2014). Switch-hitting Justin Smoak can also be thrown into the mix. I don’t mind a Blue Jays stack here, as Miranda’s fly ball tendencies should not play well at the Rogers Centre.

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Atlanta at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb R.A. Dickey miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.348 28.6% 10.1% 15.3% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.322 30.1% 13.3% 20.0% 35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.346 30.5% 7.9% 17.7% 46.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.312 34.9% 6.6% 21.9% 31.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 6 4.97 4.29 13.6% 9.7% 51.8% 28.2% 22.2%

All signs are pointing to this being the beginning of the end of the Braves’ 42-year-old knuckleballer. His SIERA has increased in each of the past four seasons, and his ability to fool hitters with his knuckler appear to be gone, as his 6.9% swinging-strike rate is his lowest since 2009, and he has an 85.1% contact rate, which is near the top of all qualified starters this year. About the best thing we can say about Dickey this year is that he hasn’t been blown up, allowing four or fewer earned runs in each of his six starts. The Marlins aren’t exactly an offense to be feared, but even so, there’s no reason to consider Dickey.

Quick Breakdown: Dickey is one of those pitchers who would have to be pretty close to free to be seriously considered as a DFS option. He isn’t, so don’t.

Justin Nicolino
justin-nicolino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 7 4.37 4.03 24.0% 11.7% 37.9% 36.1% 23.7%

In DFS, one of the primary objectives is selecting a starting pitcher who can rack up strikeouts. Justin Nicolino, just called up from Triple-A for this spot start, has a 9.3% strikeout rate for his career. I’d rather start R.A. Dickey here, which should tell you something.

Quick Breakdown: Against the contact-oriented Braves lineup, it’s not out of the question that Nicolino records literally zero strikeouts. Easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.319 0.295 0.119 26.7% 8.3% 13.8% 44.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.328 0.301 0.122 28.5% 3.0% 11.6% 47.6% 2B $2,700 2B $3,300 2B $6,600
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.426 0.429 0.314 42.6% 15.5% 21.5% 28.9% 1B $4,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.332 0.350 0.222 36.9% 5.2% 24.0% 39.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.338 0.362 0.147 33.5% 11.9% 16.6% 40.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
6 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.289 0.312 0.137 29.9% 3.2% 16.7% 52.3% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
7 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.297 0.309 0.123 30.5% 6.5% 12.3% 42.5% C $2,500 C $2,400 C $4,800
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.266 0.285 0.077 30.7% 9.8% 24.8% 46.7% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.080 0.109 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 77.8% P $7,200 P $6,700 P $13,200

The Braves are going to make a lot of contact against Justin Nicolino; that much is certain. Justin Nicolino has struggled against right-handed batters, and he has a reasonably high fly ball rate against them. This makes Matt Kemp a very interesting play, and one that likely won’t be popular. Outside of Kemp, Freddie Freeman will go virtually unowned in tournaments, and the lefty/lefty matchup shouldn’t bother him much considering Nicolino’s inability to strike anyone out. Tyler Flowers makes some sense as a punt catcher.

Elite Plays – Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.347 0.348 0.143 28.7% 8.7% 20.1% 37.4% 2B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.341 0.310 0.114 30.6% 4.8% 16.8% 50.5% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.377 0.390 0.207 40.8% 11.9% 20.0% 54.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.336 0.340 0.186 37.0% 7.9% 19.6% 46.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
5 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.329 0.339 0.231 38.3% 9.8% 28.8% 39.0% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
6 Justin Bour LEFT 0.343 0.392 0.217 38.0% 12.7% 16.7% 44.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 JT Riddle LEFT 2B $2,000 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
8 Justin Nicolino LEFT 0.153 0.167 0.000 0.0% 6.3% 50.0% 85.7% P $4,500 P $8,800
9 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.297 0.247 0.074 18.1% 5.8% 16.1% 56.6% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,100

R.A. Dickey has been prone to the long ball this year, and even in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, there’s a good chance he’ll give up one or two more today. Derek Dietrich is an elite play out of the leadoff spot. Christian Yelich is really underpriced for his skills at FanDuel and is cash game viable. Giancarlo Stanton has actually struggled against Dickey, going just 6-for-20 with eight strikeouts and only one extra-base hit (a double), but I’m certainly not leaving him out of any Marlins stacks, nor am I leaving out Marcell Ozuna, who has two-homer upside. J.T. Realmuto continues to be cheap and hit near the top of the order, which is rare for a catcher.

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Hector Santiago clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.364 33.6% 14.1% 17.7% 48.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.328 37.0% 8.1% 24.4% 38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.346 37.6% 8.9% 18.4% 31.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.332 29.1% 9.6% 18.8% 54.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago
hector-santiago-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.07 4.70 18.3% 10.1% 34.1% 37.3% 18.1%
2017 7 4.85 2.76 17.8% 9.2% 35.0% 34.7% 14.5%

Hector Santiago brings an unspectacular 4.82 SIERA into Progressive Field to take on the Indians. Santiago’s 4.82 SIERA (against a 2.76 ERA) suggests that he’s in line for some serious regression. The Twins lefty has one of the highest fly ball rates in Major League Baseball over the past few seasons, and while that can lead to a bunch of pop outs, it can also lead to a bunch of home runs. That hasn’t happened this year, but his unsustainable 5.2% HR/FB rate will rise. There’s no reason to dig this deep, even on Sundays, when the day’s slate of games are split in half.

Quick Breakdown: Santiago hasn’t gotten blown up this year, but that’s largely due to some unsustainable positive fortune. Avoid in all formats.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 6 3.96 7.36 25.3% 10.3% 40.2% 37.2% 16.0%

Trevor Bauer has a 7.36 ERA through six starts this year. But if you play DFS seriously, you probably look a little deeper than ERA. Truth be told, Bauer’s peripherals suggest he’s due for some positive regression. I’m no fan of Bauer, but a .345 BABIP and 20.0% HR/FB rate just aren’t sustainable, no matter how dislikable you are as a person. The Twins have been a tough matchup for right-handed pitchers this year, with a few power bats that could spell trouble for Bauer. His walk rate remains high, which leaves him always at risk for giving up big innings. For those reasons, he’s more of a stay away, though his 25.3% K rate says you can use him in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer does present some strikeout upside, which puts him in play for tournaments. However, he should be far from your cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.356 0.325 0.251 33.3% 9.0% 19.7% 39.2% 2B $4,200 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.339 0.392 0.137 33.4% 14.1% 14.1% 47.4% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.352 0.349 0.241 42.7% 11.9% 36.5% 33.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.321 0.207 34.7% 10.8% 18.8% 44.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.299 0.265 34.9% 11.9% 33.1% 32.5% 1B $3,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.319 0.287 0.185 33.1% 3.5% 23.5% 44.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.307 0.300 0.104 23.4% 8.2% 13.1% 34.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.327 0.324 0.198 37.0% 12.7% 32.5% 42.2% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.291 0.234 0.183 23.3% 6.2% 36.0% 35.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200

As with the Indians, there is certainly no shortage of talent in the Twins lineup. Miguel Sano, who owns an insane 57.5% hard contact rate against righties, is the top target here. He’s cash game playable at FanDuel, although I slightly prefer Manny Machado if I’m spending up at third base. Brian Dozier has no problem hitting right-handed pitching, and he’s one of the top raw points plays at second base. A stack is certainly in play given Bauer’s tendency to get wild, although it’s not one of my favorites of the slate.

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.313 0.322 0.120 29.3% 11.6% 8.5% 54.6% 1B $3,900 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.330 0.331 0.137 31.8% 6.8% 14.9% 47.2% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.305 0.299 0.119 34.4% 8.5% 23.4% 46.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.361 0.383 0.206 40.5% 19.6% 21.6% 39.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.351 0.155 33.3% 7.5% 14.2% 42.7% 3B $3,600 2B/3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.318 0.306 0.165 28.5% 5.8% 25.0% 43.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.386 0.361 0.189 28.4% 4.5% 13.9% 36.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.207 29.2% 7.8% 21.4% 42.3% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.296 0.284 0.133 26.1% 7.0% 23.0% 55.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,400

As a team, the Indians are much more effective against right-handed pitching. For that reason, I wasn’t initially a fan of this spot, but the Indians’ 4.83 implied run total has me a bit more interested. Francisco Lindor prefers to hit left-handed, but on a weak slate for shortstops, he’s in consideration. The price of Edwin Encarnacion is coming up at FanDuel, but he’s still too cheap for his home run upside, especially against a fly ball pitcher like Santiago.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-170 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.347 26.2% 8.9% 15.7% 32.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.318 26.1% 8.5% 18.6% 57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.308 26.0% 2.9% 20.7% 45.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.319 33.8% 8.5% 22.6% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 7 5.32 3.49 10.7% 5.0% 35.4% 26.7% 17.6%

In the first game in the day/night double-header between the Phillies and Nationals, Jeremy Hellickson takes the hill for the Phils. He has made a career of generating weak contact. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher, but this year, his SIERA is at 5.32 (after being 4.14 and 4.15 the previous two years) – that’s the fourth-highest mark among qualified pitchers in MLB. His 10.7 K% is the lowest among qualified starters, and it isn’t that close (Zach Eflin is second at 13.0%). Needless to say, against the team that has the second-highest wOBA in MLB against righties, Hellickson has no business on anyone’s DFS lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Quick Breakdown: Hellickson has taken a major step backwards in the strikeout department this season, and he was rarely playable before this year. Easy fade.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 7 4.86 2.64 19.3% 11.8% 43.5% 29.7% 26.6%

If you’ve played DFS long enough, you’ve most likely been burned by Gio Gonzalez at some point (and if you’re new to DFS, it may have been in his last start, when he gave up six earned to the Orioles). Gio has a 2.64 but has gotten incredibly lucky with an 89.6% strand rate and .248 BABIP. The 4.84 SIERA tells the real story. Gio has had tremendous success against the Phillies in the past, limiting them to two or fewer earned runs in seven consecutive starts dating back to 2015. But the 2017 Phillies are quietly crushing left-handed pitching in 2017, ranking in the top six of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. We’re still in small sample land, so it’s not clear how real those numbers are, but they’re certainly enough to give pause. Sunday’s early slate is pretty thin for SP2 options, though, so Gonzalez is in play on two-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on your risk tolerance, you may consider Gonzalez as an SP2 or in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.349 0.291 0.096 22.9% 7.3% 19.8% 59.1% 2B $3,500 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.395 0.351 0.266 34.0% 12.2% 18.9% 44.0% OF $4,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.303 0.289 0.080 23.5% 9.7% 21.9% 59.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.344 0.359 0.219 38.1% 7.0% 17.5% 45.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.370 0.306 0.268 29.9% 7.0% 28.7% 48.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.376 0.377 0.304 36.0% 10.7% 21.4% 32.6% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.238 0.263 0.117 26.2% 2.1% 18.2% 39.6% SS $3,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.413 0.322 0.290 40.6% 7.9% 28.7% 50.0% C $2,900 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.185 0.202 0.000 0.0% 4.8% 33.3% 60.0% P $8,200 P $7,600 P $15,000

Despite the Phillies excellent team numbers against left-handed pitching this year, there really aren’t many individual bats that are catching my attention, outside of Aaron Altherr, who has been the best hitter on the planet since the calendar flipped to May. Take a look at his numbers this month: .635 wOBA (1st in MLB), .633 ISO (2nd), and 297 wRC+ (1st). He’s still way underpriced at DraftKings and makes for an excellent one-off in tournaments. On a weak slate for catchers, Cameron Rupp also deserves a look, as he crushes left-handed pitching.

Elite Plays – Aaron Altherr

Secondary Plays – Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.390 0.334 0.239 33.1% 4.9% 19.6% 43.2% SS $3,700 SS $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.312 0.318 0.147 32.6% 11.0% 24.7% 41.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.380 0.395 0.234 35.3% 19.2% 15.9% 39.7% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.325 0.333 0.196 35.8% 5.2% 23.4% 45.4% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.417 0.401 0.252 39.1% 6.8% 9.2% 35.0% 2B $4,200 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.338 0.342 0.179 34.7% 8.8% 18.8% 37.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.314 0.322 0.174 33.0% 7.2% 18.0% 38.0% C $3,000 C $3,500 C $6,800
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.260 0.268 0.120 32.0% 5.8% 31.6% 44.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.173 0.171 0.038 15.6% 3.3% 42.6% 53.8% P $8,600 P $9,400 P $18,000

Jeremy Hellickson is a pitcher in the same vein as Tanner Roark, who isn’t someone we love to roster, but who also isn’t someone we love to pick on. Even so, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are in play anytime they have the platoon edge (and oftentimes when they don’t). Trea Turner remains underpriced at FanDuel considering the power/speed upside he brings. Even though Hellickson can generally limit the damage and has had success against the Nationals this year, it’s rarely wrong to stack Washington bats up in 2017.

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
tampabaymlb Matt Andriese bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.312 36.1% 6.6% 20.9% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.299 33.8% 9.6% 23.9% 42.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.317 35.6% 5.1% 21.0% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.283 31.2% 8.9% 27.4% 46.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese
matt-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.90 4.37 20.7% 4.7% 42.9% 34.3% 16.6%
2017 7 4.03 3.12 21.9% 8.9% 48.7% 41.0% 15.4%

Matt Andriese is very quietly having a solid year for the Rays. However, the 41.0% hard hit rate says he could be due for some regression. It’s difficult to roster even elite starters against the Red Sox given their MLB-low 16.8% K rate against righties, and Andriese is far from elite.

Quick Breakdown: Andriese is a perfectly average starter, but that’s not going to cut it in a poor matchup with the Red Sox.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 6 3.54 5.23 26.7% 8.2% 40.9% 34.1% 26.1%

The pitcher on the other side of this game is a bit more interesting, at least for tournaments. Drew Pomeranz has elite strikeout upside against any opponent, but against Tampa Bay, he could reach double figures in strikeouts (and in fact, he did the last time he faced them, on April 16th). The fact that he also gave up five earned runs in that start illustrates why he’s a tournament play. The issue with Pomeranz is that he rarely pitches deep into games. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearance is seventh-highest in MLB. His SIERA is 3.54, actually down from the 3.80 he posted last year. It appears that variance hasn’t been on his side regarding BABIP and his HR/FB rate. The real upside here, though, comes in the strikeout department: the Rays whiff 27.0% of the time against lefties, more often than any other team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: It’s the same old story with Pomeranz: great tournament play, but very risky for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.305 0.291 0.149 34.0% 7.8% 35.9% 40.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.328 0.286 0.151 38.3% 7.9% 33.1% 51.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.303 0.338 0.180 33.1% 9.5% 21.6% 36.0% 3B $2,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.313 0.321 0.108 25.8% 10.6% 22.3% 51.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
5 Rickie Weeks RIGHT 0.386 0.410 0.298 50.8% 15.2% 27.7% 38.1% OF $2,700 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
6 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.381 0.334 0.091 40.0% 8.3% 8.3% 40.0% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,400
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.308 0.271 0.131 29.8% 10.4% 24.7% 45.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.273 0.316 0.135 41.3% 9.8% 21.5% 31.2% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.287 0.242 0.054 24.7% 5.9% 22.0% 47.6% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

The Rays have one of the lower implied run totals of the day at 3.96 runs. They strike out so much against lefties that it’s tough to consider any of them cash game options. Depending on lineup positioning, though, there are a few interesting bats to consider as “last man in” types. Rickie Weeks continues to be a value play with nice upside, particularly when he’s batting cleanup. If Tim Beckham is hitting near the top of the order, there are worse value options.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rickie Weeks, Tim Beckham

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.394 0.339 0.215 34.1% 7.7% 10.5% 41.4% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.356 0.333 0.133 33.9% 8.0% 9.5% 50.2% 2B $3,600 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.342 0.296 0.137 29.4% 6.9% 16.4% 48.2% SS $3,900 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
4 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.395 0.349 0.214 37.5% 8.6% 13.8% 35.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.345 0.350 0.186 37.8% 9.5% 19.3% 49.3% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.308 0.354 0.186 38.5% 8.3% 22.7% 39.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.296 0.235 0.071 33.3% 10.9% 32.8% 65.7% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.310 0.274 0.153 35.3% 5.9% 25.9% 45.2% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.357 0.355 0.241 38.1% 10.3% 22.0% 46.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,800

After a slow start to 2016, the Red Sox bats have woken up. They now lead Major League Baseball with a .365 wOBA in May, and their 14.1% K rate this month is by far the lowest in MLB. The only issue is their prices; none of these guys come cheap, with the exception of Mitch Moreland, who is an unsexy name at first base, but one who is underpriced given his skills and the matchup. Andrew Benintendi is reasonably priced, and Mookie Betts could be priced at $6,000 and still be a value the way he’s been playing recently. While Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia are needed to fill out the stack, neither are appealing in one-offs due to their lack of power. Neither Bogaerts nor Pedroia have a single barrel on the season (“barrel” is a StatCast metric that measures the best-hit balls based on a combination of exit velocity and launch angle).

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

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About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.