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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 10th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-09-11 00:08:12

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Detroit Toronto
detroitmlb Anibal Sanchez torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-190 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.310 31.9% 5.7% 16.5% 35.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.264 20.8% 3.3% 18.5% 55.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.418 0.346 42.3% 6.0% 21.4% 40.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.304 28.7% 8.8% 22.3% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 12 4.41 7.07 19.0% 5.9% 37.7% 37.0% 17.0%
L30 3 4.21 10.80 18.0% 2.6% 35.5% 38.7% 6.5%

What’s up, Grinders? It’s the first Sunday of the NFL season! Everyone rejoice! Oh… and I’m sitting here writing a baseball article. Boo! Alas, duty calls.

I am going to take the freedom to be a little more brief in this Grind Down today. Even for those of you who are trying to play MLB this afternoon, it will probably be a little bit welcome, as I am sure time will be hard to come by today between NFL and MLB lineup building. As such, let’s get to a (slightly condensed) Sunday MLB discussion!

Anibal Sanchez has been in and out of the Detroit rotation all year and carries an ugly 7.07 ERA on the year. While he has certainly been a bad luck victim at times, he simply isn’t a quality major league pitcher at this point. The day starts with an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: If you are considering using Anibal Sanchez at pitcher, save your money and make a few more NFL lineups instead.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 21 4.28 3.85 21.7% 7.9% 46.2% 27.2% 20.1%
L30 6 4.73 3.67 21.7% 11.2% 45.0% 20.6% 18.6%

Happ is a decent real life pitcher, but he is another pitcher who is generally over-rated by the media because of his wins from a year ago — just like Mr. Cy Young Rick Porcello. He does do a nice job of avoiding hard contact, and he could be worth a look today against a watered down Tigers lineup. He has a SIERA and xFIP in the low fours, and there’s some decent appeal here. Happ isn’t a big strikeout guy, so the upside isn’t massive, but he is a solid home favorite in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is worth a look in cash games in a favorable matchup, but I will be looking elsewhere in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.370 0.374 0.238 44.9% 10.5% 10.5% 24.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.337 0.347 0.224 43.5% 4.1% 19.5% 41.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.393 0.425 0.148 44.6% 16.2% 21.9% 35.4% 1B $2,900 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.387 0.389 0.336 45.0% 6.2% 16.9% 41.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.427 0.465 0.297 44.0% 7.9% 15.8% 34.7% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $6,000
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.340 0.337 0.265 40.6% 7.5% 32.1% 48.4% C $2,400 1B/C $3,300 C $6,600
7 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.432 0.383 0.222 33.3% 9.1% 27.3% 16.7% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,600
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.278 0.254 0.250 35.7% 3.3% 46.7% 35.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.282 0.287 0.084 24.1% 4.5% 5.7% 46.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

As with most left-handed pitchers, Happ has been very good against same-handed hitters. You can safely ignore any lefties the Tigers have in there. Miguel Cabrera returned and homered on Saturday, so he could be worth a look given his now depressed price point. He’s priced under $3,000 on both FD and DK. The catcher tandem of Hicks and McCann also profiles better against a left-hander. I’ll likely avoid a full stack here, though, given the weak nature of the rest of the lineup.

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – James McCann, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.365 0.296 0.147 26.3% 8.1% 21.6% 48.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.384 0.377 0.265 33.0% 15.8% 23.8% 41.2% 3B $3,700 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.308 0.323 0.178 34.3% 13.1% 23.7% 35.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.366 0.388 0.282 41.0% 10.0% 23.0% 35.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.295 0.354 0.202 37.2% 7.0% 22.3% 48.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.272 0.291 0.123 24.9% 4.8% 15.6% 45.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.270 0.274 0.121 29.3% 7.1% 18.7% 46.0% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.230 0.248 0.106 22.2% 1.6% 15.6% 48.3% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,600
9 Rafael Lopez LEFT N/A N/A

The Jays are a bit banged up right now and have been for much of the year, but anyone and everyone could potentially get right against the scuffling Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has allowed a .369 wOBA to LHBs and a .418 wOBA to RHBs this year. All aboard! The Blue Jays have an implied team total of 5.5 runs, which trails only the Yankees (by a minuscule amount) for the top spot on the board. It’s rare that the Blue Jays are projected that highly these days.

Elite Plays – Largely depends on lineup – Richard Urena (if leading off), Ezequiel Carrera (if at top of lineup), Josh Donaldson (if he returns), Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce (if he returns)

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Mets
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-155 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.318 40.5% 12.1% 18.9% 46.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.298 33.2% 8.0% 24.4% 43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.294 29.8% 9.6% 16.7% 55.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.264 33.5% 6.4% 31.4% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 5.05 4.62 17.7% 10.8% 51.3% 34.5% 20.7%
L30 6 4.92 4.42 15.6% 8.8% 52.6% 38.7% 19.3%

I said I was going to be more brief today, and I typed up about as much on the first game as I usually do. I’m not good at this “brief” thing. I’ll try with Sal Romano. He’s just not very good, and the Mets have actually been hitting the ball well against mediocre pitchers this week.

Quick Breakdown: Not even a good matchup can get me excited about rostering Sal Romano.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 28 3.53 3.65 28.0% 7.2% 45.3% 33.3% 21.2%
L30 6 3.48 4.78 25.2% 4.9% 46.4% 29.8% 26.3%

Jacob deGrom struggled when he faced these same Reds a couple weeks ago, and he then proceeded to get absolutely shellacked by the Phillies in his last start on a night where he was massively owned. This seems like a nice spot to be able to grab him at lower ownership in tournaments, though the recent form is a concern. He still has a solid overall profile, with an ERA and xFIP in the mid-threes, and he is still striking out more than a batter per inning. I’m fine with getting back on board here, with the notion that there is probably a little more risk these days in the back of my mind.

Quick Breakdown: Two poor outings in a row might keep deGrom’s ownership lower than it should be. The Reds offense has scuffled of late, and deGrom is a fine pick, especially for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.356 0.320 0.353 23.1% 5.6% 22.2% 38.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.377 0.322 0.222 29.1% 12.6% 15.9% 40.1% SS $3,100 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.431 0.430 0.264 37.2% 19.0% 10.7% 37.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.322 0.288 0.236 33.1% 5.1% 27.3% 31.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.397 0.337 0.268 38.1% 6.9% 20.7% 40.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.365 0.355 0.208 31.5% 12.9% 21.2% 38.8% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.336 0.362 0.261 40.0% 10.4% 23.7% 43.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.333 0.118 34.3% 10.0% 16.5% 44.0% C $3,100 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.113 0.131 0.063 18.2% 4.8% 42.9% 80.0% P $6,500 P $7,100 P $14,000

Even though they hit deGrom well last week, you won’t be talking me onto any hitters against him. There’s no point on a full slate.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.288 0.284 0.142 25.8% 8.8% 13.0% 38.7% SS $3,600 3B/SS $4,300 SS $8,400
2 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.324 0.287 0.142 22.2% 6.5% 12.6% 55.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.313 0.333 0.169 37.6% 10.0% 16.8% 41.2% 3B $3,500 2B/SS $3,800 SS $7,500
4 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.350 0.332 0.091 37.0% 17.5% 25.8% 46.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
5 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.308 0.242 0.124 27.4% 5.4% 20.8% 52.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
6 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.258 0.297 0.153 34.5% 4.1% 15.2% 40.2% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.255 0.277 0.192 34.9% 3.7% 18.5% 54.0% 1B $2,600 1B $2,700 1B $5,400
8 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.272 0.223 0.141 22.4% 1.1% 30.7% 50.0% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.308 0.242 0.124 27.4% 5.4% 20.8% 52.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

Romano’s splits seem to favor righties in this spot, but Romano has a higher hard contact rate allowed and a lower ground ball rate against lefties. He’s been bad enough that we can target hitters from either side, and the control problems put a full stack into play. The Mets have a weak lineup at this point, but they have produced well this week against bad pitchers.

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Dominic Smith

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Atlanta
miamimlb Odrisamer Despaigne atlantamlb R.A. Dickey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.317 25.8% 8.5% 9.8% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.287 23.6% 7.9% 16.4% 48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.231 0.299 34.0% 12.7% 14.1% 43.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.337 29.9% 9.3% 17.8% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Odrisamer Despaigne
odrisamer-despaigne-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 5.49 5.93 12.6% 11.9% 39.6% 38.6% 22.8%
2017 4 5.86 3.57 11.8% 10.5% 37.7% 29.3% 27.6%
L30 3 5.66 3.13 10.6% 7.5% 37.8% 30.3% 31.6%

Despaigne has a career strikeout rate of 13.6% and a 2017 strikeout rate of 11.8%. His minor league strikeout rate was 17%. That should not get you excited. Neither should his 4.64 career SIERA or his current year SIERA that is hovering around 6.00.

Quick Breakdown: Look elsewhere, and don’t be fooled by his reasonable surface numbers.

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 27 4.87 4.14 17.2% 8.7% 48.2% 27.1% 23.4%
L30 5 4.09 4.60 21.4% 6.4% 46.0% 30.7% 21.8%

Dickey is always a wild card, and his performance totally depends on how his ball is moving. He’s had some solid starts in the second half of the season, but he is always hit or miss. Against a power-laden Marlins offense, Dickey is more boom or bust than usual. I can’t take a chance on that as anything other than a deep GPP play.

Quick Breakdown: Dickey might be worth a look in tournaments, but even that is stretching it a bit. He is a true boom/bust option.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.315 0.256 0.070 17.8% 5.1% 14.1% 55.3% 2B $3,900 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.401 0.388 0.343 37.4% 10.8% 26.1% 42.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.358 0.357 0.164 37.2% 12.4% 19.8% 55.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 CF $9,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.395 0.369 0.270 40.8% 9.3% 22.0% 44.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.365 0.389 0.246 45.6% 10.5% 21.4% 40.0% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.318 0.324 0.163 32.7% 5.1% 18.2% 50.3% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.330 0.271 0.067 45.5% 16.7% 22.2% 63.6% 3B $2,100 3B $2,600 3B $5,200
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.276 0.292 0.032 18.3% 8.1% 11.0% 51.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 2B $5,200
9 Odrisamer Despaigne RIGHT 0.097 0.101 0.000 28.6% 0.0% 22.2% 100.0% P $5,600 P $5,800 P $11,600

Even though R.A. Dickey has a solid ground ball rate, he does struggle with the long ball. When the knuckleball is doing its thing, he gets a lot of ground balls. When it floats, he gives up the big flies. Giancarlo Stanton and Tyler Moore are the only Marlins with career home runs off Dickey, and he is generally not a pitcher that I stack against. I don’t mind the individual power bats, but it’s basically a guessing game trying to figure out which hitter will get the meatball to smash.

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Brian Anderson (value), Christian Yelich

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.334 0.286 0.111 24.6% 6.4% 14.7% 42.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.297 0.277 0.121 35.4% 5.6% 19.6% 44.9% 2B $3,300 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.443 0.433 0.309 37.0% 13.7% 15.0% 34.6% 1B $4,200 1B/3B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.349 0.349 0.208 35.3% 4.2% 22.3% 48.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.361 0.342 0.182 40.7% 6.7% 22.8% 39.0% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.246 0.309 0.099 27.7% 8.8% 26.5% 66.2% 3B $2,000 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.268 0.290 0.094 28.2% 10.4% 22.2% 50.0% SS $3,300 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.255 0.299 0.083 30.3% 11.9% 21.9% 61.2% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $2,600 2B $5,100
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.120 0.146 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 72.2% P $6,900 P $6,300 P $12,600

The Braves are a sneaky offense to target this afternoon. Despaigne is a terrible pitcher, and he has largely benefited from a .261 BABIP and ridiculous 2.2% HR/FB rate. That is not going to last no matter how good you are at limiting hard contact. It is very difficult for a pitcher to succeed at this level with a 10.5% walk rate and 11.8% strikeout rate (unless your name is Andrew Cashner). LHBs have posted a wOBA that is more than 100 points higher than RHBs against Despaigne this year, so the lefties get first dibs here. I love the top three hitters in the order as a mini-stack, assuming everyone plays.

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Rio Ruiz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Ben Lively washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-300 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.363 32.7% 10.0% 12.1% 44.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 0.263 22.3% 7.7% 28.9% 47.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.284 30.0% 5.0% 14.9% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.281 29.6% 5.6% 28.4% 45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ben Lively
edward-lively-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 5.39 3.92 13.5% 7.5% 39.6% 31.3% 21.2%
L30 4 4.50 4.13 21.0% 8.0% 37.9% 27.9% 23.5%

Lively is a huge road underdog, he doesn’t strike many batters out, and he has a SIERA of 5.40 and xFIP of 5.56 this season. Nope.

Quick Breakdown: The above analysis should be enough of a “quick” breakdown.

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 24 3.40 2.78 28.6% 6.7% 46.6% 26.0% 21.1%
L30 4 2.55 0.67 31.3% 3.0% 57.1% 23.1% 26.2%

Strasburg is a massive home favorite and has looked very good since his return. The Phillies have the lowest implied team total on the slate at a very meager 2.8 runs, and Strasburg should be the most popular pitching option of the day. It seems very sensible to just lock him in for cash games, but you can certainly consider a GPP pivot to some of the other top end arms (Jacob deGrom, for example). With a low hard contact rate allowed, a well above average strikeout profile, and a 3.41 SIERA, there aren’t many cracks in Strasburg’s statistical logs.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is the top overall pitching option of the day. He’s healthy now, and his recent form has been impeccable.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.344 0.306 0.109 22.7% 10.5% 20.4% 49.6% 2B $3,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.309 0.290 0.148 27.6% 7.9% 20.0% 35.1% SS $3,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.323 0.303 0.162 27.8% 6.8% 21.9% 42.6% OF $3,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.458 0.379 0.352 45.6% 11.1% 17.3% 26.3% OF $4,100 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.344 0.327 0.213 38.8% 7.5% 26.7% 52.1% OF $3,900 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.283 0.300 0.159 28.6% 6.6% 15.6% 44.0% 3B $2,800 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.274 0.338 0.065 29.1% 9.1% 17.2% 46.3% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.407 0.305 0.098 21.4% 0.0% 31.0% 57.1% C $2,800 C $2,200 C $4,300
9 Ben Lively RIGHT 0.329 0.220 0.214 25.0% 0.0% 42.9% 62.5% P $6,500 P $6,400 P $12,800

Rhys Hoskins could probably hit four home runs off Clayton Kershaw these days, so he is in play, but I will be avoiding everyone else against a white hot Stephen Strasburg.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.173 26.0% 6.9% 17.0% 51.7% SS $4,300 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.355 0.303 0.137 28.9% 5.7% 21.9% 63.2% OF $3,400 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.382 0.367 0.232 35.4% 8.8% 10.8% 32.9% 2B $3,900 2B $5,100 2B $10,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.377 0.371 0.244 39.2% 7.8% 22.9% 47.9% 1B $3,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.380 0.359 0.216 34.2% 12.9% 14.7% 35.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.269 0.298 0.113 29.9% 7.1% 18.3% 41.4% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,600
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.314 0.281 0.198 33.1% 6.9% 32.7% 43.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
8 Alejandro De Aza LEFT 0.207 0.173 0.077 23.5% 3.4% 37.9% 26.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.177 0.227 0.097 14.8% 0.0% 18.2% 60.0% P $10,900 P $12,700 P $24,800

Lively has a pretty poor profile all around, so fire up whoever you wish from the Nationals here. He allows more hard contact to lefties but has a better ground ball profile against them. He doesn’t strike out much of anyone. I would build the rest of your lineup first and then come back to fill in some Washington bats, because they are in play from top to bottom, and they make for a fine stack or mini-stack as well.

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, whoever starts at catcher (Wieters will probably get the day off)

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
tampabaymlb Alex Cobb bostonmlb Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-147 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.314 37.1% 9.1% 18.8% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.339 42.6% 5.3% 21.0% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.316 36.5% 3.6% 15.6% 51.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.318 36.3% 4.6% 20.2% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 26 4.53 3.64 17.0% 6.0% 47.1% 36.7% 14.8%
L30 3 2.85 2.25 27.7% 4.6% 62.8% 27.3% 20.5%

Alex Cobb has quietly put up decent surface numbers this season, but that’s about where the glowing endorsement ends. He doesn’t miss many bats, he has allowed hard contact at a nearly 37% clip, and he has a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-fours. This is a tough matchup against a low strikeout Boston team that absolutely hammered a similar pitcher in Matt Andriese last night. No thanks.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb can safely be avoided in all formats.

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 29 4.19 4.67 20.6% 4.9% 39.6% 39.2% 17.0%
L30 6 4.46 4.54 19.9% 7.1% 43.0% 31.6% 19.3%

I disparaged Rick Porcello earlier in this article, and that was before I even knew he was pitching today. Now, I’m going to reverse course and say that I think Porcello is in play today. This is mainly because of his matchup against the Rays, who have some of the worst offensive marks in the league in the second half of the season. I mentioned a lot of those in Saturday’s Grind Down in endorsing Chris Sale, and while Porcello is by no means Chris Sale, he is at least a competent arm with some potential. After all, he won the Cy Young last year (sarcasm font again). The Rays strike out a ton, and there is upside here despite the fact that Porcello is having a down year.

Quick Breakdown: If you can stomach the risk, Porcello has intriguing upside against a free swinging Rays squad. He’s a fine tournament play and is preferred as a SP #2 choice on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.367 0.286 0.208 34.0% 8.5% 20.2% 44.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.381 0.388 0.322 45.1% 14.0% 24.4% 27.7% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.335 0.319 0.174 33.5% 5.5% 14.1% 42.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.378 0.383 0.307 40.2% 13.3% 23.7% 32.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.359 0.353 0.268 36.2% 12.1% 29.5% 42.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.343 0.322 0.233 36.2% 6.7% 23.3% 37.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.242 0.289 0.132 31.3% 3.9% 20.2% 47.9% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800
8 Brad Miller LEFT 0.290 0.319 0.122 35.4% 19.1% 27.7% 50.7% 2B $2,600 2B $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.271 0.280 0.107 30.3% 3.3% 19.5% 50.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

The Rays have a pretty expansive BvP history against Porcello, which is no surprise given how long Porcello has pitched within the division for the Red Sox. With all that BvP data, only one Rays player has a wOBA over .335 against Porcello, and that is Brad Miller (who sits pretty at .499). That makes me like Porcello a little more, and it also makes Miller an interesting punt option at his super cheap price, even though Miller has been hitting eighth. Lefties have given Porcello the most fits this year, too, so Miller checks that box. Duda, Morrison, and Dickerson would be in play if you wanted to opt for a left-handed mini stack, but I’m not going nuts here.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Lucas Duda, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.329 0.315 0.093 25.8% 9.0% 10.4% 48.1% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.348 0.344 0.183 36.4% 10.2% 16.3% 37.0% OF $3,900 OF $5,100 LF $10,000
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.323 0.327 0.176 35.0% 9.5% 11.3% 40.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.356 0.182 34.4% 8.3% 20.5% 41.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.329 0.375 0.203 39.0% 9.9% 21.2% 40.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.321 0.266 0.143 30.2% 7.9% 19.9% 46.9% SS $3,200 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.313 0.291 0.212 34.6% 8.0% 23.0% 50.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.311 0.265 0.096 26.6% 5.5% 19.6% 48.0% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.308 0.319 0.173 36.7% 8.6% 24.2% 41.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,600

The Red Sox hammered Matt Andriese early and often yesterday, and they certainly could do the same to Alex Cobb today. Eduardo Nunez left the game with an injury and will likely be out today. That could mean we see Dustin Pedroia in the leadoff spot. He was my favorite value play yesterday and came through nicely, so I don’t mind doubling down today. He remains very cheap everywhere. Of course, you can stack here too, as Cobb is allowing copious amounts of hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia (value), Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84