MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 9th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Cleveland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET
Cleveland | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
Mike Clevinger | Thomas Pannone | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CLE-155 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.331 | 35.4% | 1.00 | 21.2% | 37.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.381 | 0.307 | 25.0% | 0.00 | 30.8% | 28.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.271 | 0.272 | 36.1% | 0.81 | 28.2% | 42.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.287 | 0.335 | 27.5% | 1.50 | 10.2% | 30.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Clevinger | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 21 | 4.24 | 3.11 | 27.3% | 12.0% | 39.5% | 34.2% | 18.6% | 92.5 | 12.5% | |
2018 | 27 | 3.91 | 3.17 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 39.8% | 35.8% | 17.7% | 93.5 | 11.7% | |
L14 | 3 | 2.85 | 1.45 | 32.4% | 5.4% | 34.8% | 37.0% | 17.4% | 94.1 | 14.2% |
Mike Clevinger has pitched pretty well this season, as evidenced by his 25.4% K-rate and 3.83 SIERA. Control has been a problem for him in the past, but this year he’s slashed his walk rate to 7.9% after it was at 12% last year. His fly ball lean will lead to some homers (18 conceded in 28 starts), and today he’ll be facing a Jays lineup with good power. Clevinger is a solid pivot off of what figures to be a chalkier Jacob deGrom. Given the shallow pitching slate we have today, he’s viable.
Quick Breakdown: Clevinger makes for a fine pivot off of deGrom in GPPs.
Thomas Pannone | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 2 | 5.19 | 5.52 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 30.4% | 27.1% | 16.7% | 88.5 | 10.4% | |
L14 | 2 | 6.30 | 5.40 | 8.2% | 6.1% | 27.5% | 26.8% | 14.6% | 88.4 | 9.8% |
Thomas Pannone has pitched in 8 games for Toronto this season, including 2 starts. One start was great, the other, not so much. The lefty flashed good strikeout stuff in the minors, but he comes with all sorts of risk today facing the potent Indians offense. The pitching options today are gross, but not gross enough for me to seriously consider Pannone in this matchup.
Quick Breakdown: Pannone is a pitcher to avoid today.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
We don’t have much of a sample size when it comes to Pannone at the major league level, but the southpaw is an extreme fly ball pitcher that got blasted by the lowly Orioles in his last start. Pannone is a prospect, but I expect the Indians to get to him today. All of the usual suspects are in play. That means Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion are your top plays, while Michael Brantley is still viable lefty-on-lefty. Yan Gomes and Brandon Guyer are solid values, as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.405 | 0.200 | 42.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 45.3% | SS | $4,800 | SS | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.323 | 0.098 | 26.1% | 3.8% | 9.2% | 51.4% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.356 | 0.210 | 38.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 37.4% | 3B | $4,700 | 3B | $5,000 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.170 | 46.8% | 16.7% | 19.2% | 29.9% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.138 | 30.8% | 6.8% | 27.1% | 33.3% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.233 | 50.0% | 4.3% | 23.9% | 34.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.295 | 0.140 | 31.8% | 10.2% | 21.1% | 29.9% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.040 | 46.7% | 13.3% | 36.7% | 64.3% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Greg Allen | SWITCH | 0.225 | 0.000 | 26.1% | 0.0% | 37.8% | 47.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.328 | 0.137 | 37.7% | 8.2% | 21.8% | 41.5% |
Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley
Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Melky Cabrera
Stackability – GREEN
Toronto
With so many worse pitchers taking the bump today I don’t really see the need to pick on Clevinger. The right-hander has been a bit more hittable against lefties, so I don’t hate the thought of a potentially low-owned Justin Smoak or Billy McKinney on the Toronto side of things. That Rowdy Tellez fella is also worth a look in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy McKinney | LEFT | 0.469 | 0.361 | 55.6% | 11.6% | 23.3% | 33.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Lourdes Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.174 | 33.0% | 2.4% | 22.2% | 40.4% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/SS | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.448 | 0.250 | 45.6% | 12.2% | 19.4% | 44.5% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.270 | 35.2% | 6.3% | 22.7% | 35.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Rowdy Tellez | LEFT | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A | ||||||
6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.172 | 33.7% | 3.7% | 19.3% | 35.9% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Danny Jansen | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.219 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 31.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Richard Urena | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.079 | 55.6% | 9.3% | 27.9% | 30.8% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.181 | 33.9% | 3.3% | 12.8% | 41.9% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.361 | 0.213 | 39.6% | 7.1% | 19.8% | 36.7% |
Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Billy McKinney
Secondary Plays – Rowdy Tellez
Stackability – ORANGE / RED
Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
Josh Rogers | ** | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | ** | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TBD | |||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 25.0% | |||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.380 | 0.342 | 44.4% | 2.08 | 9.5% | 33.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.318 | 33.3% | 0.00 | 30.0% | 66.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Josh Rogers | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 5.72 | 5.40 | 8.7% | 4.4% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 15.0% | 90.1 | 5.9% | |
L14 | 1 | 5.72 | 5.40 | 8.7% | 4.4% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 15.0% | 90.1 | 5.9% |
Josh Rogers is a rookie left-hander making his third big league start. He hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout ability in the minors and he looks like more of a fly ball guy than a ground ball guy. The Trop is a nice place to pitch, but the matchup with the Rays isn’t as easy as it looks. I see no reason to play Rogers today.
Quick Breakdown: Rogers is one of the easiest fades on the slate.
#VALUE! | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $0 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 0 | 8.34 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 83.3 | 3.9% | |
2018 | 0 | 9.05 | 0.00 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 94.4 | 9.1% | |
L14 | 0 | 9.05 | 0.00 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 94.4 | 9.1% |
Ryne Stanek will open this game for Tampa, but it sounds like Yonny Chirinos will get the majority of the innings. Chirinos has put up decent numbers this season, but nothing crazy. He has a 19.2% strikeout rate and a SIERA of 4.17. The hard contact rate over 41% is also concerning, but he keeps the ball on the ground decently well and he’s only been taken deep 6 times in 14 outings. As was the case yesterday with Ryan Yarbrough, I think you can give Chirinos a hard look today against the watered-down Orioles lineup. I like it more for GPPs than cash, but it’s tempting.
Quick Breakdown: Fade Stanek, consider Chirinos in GPPs.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
I haven’t been targeting the Rays with their opener situation all year, and I don’t plan on starting today with the Orioles. Aside from the savings you can get with Chris Davis, I have essentially zero interest in Baltimore.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cedric Mullins | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.283 | 28.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 58.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.191 | 34.6% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 34.6% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.275 | 0.095 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 26.3% | 59.4% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.197 | 39.1% | 7.6% | 23.5% | 49.0% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.134 | 35.0% | 8.5% | 35.9% | 40.2% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.132 | 31.8% | 5.3% | 24.7% | 47.6% | SS | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Chance Sisco | LEFT | 0.287 | 0.080 | 32.9% | 6.9% | 35.2% | 46.9% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.147 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 24.6% | 43.6% | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
9 | John Andreoli | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.048 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 52.9% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.305 | 0.145 | 32.2% | 8.2% | 23.8% | 48.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Chris Davis
Stackability – RED
Tampa Bay
Josh Rogers is a mediocre lefty, so I don’t mind taking a shot on some of the Rays right-handed hitters despite the bad park for hitting. Someone like Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron or Tommy Pham makes sense here. I’d reserve the lefties like Kevin Kiermaier and Jake Bauers for tournaments, but I think the Rays once again make for something of a sneaky stack. They’re not all that cheap but if you can afford them I like them, especially in tournaments today.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.079 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 20.5% | 52.2% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.269 | 0.115 | 36.2% | 7.4% | 23.5% | 46.8% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.463 | 0.122 | 52.2% | 14.7% | 19.3% | 49.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Ji-Man Choi | LEFT | 0.210 | 0.000 | 37.5% | 6.7% | 33.3% | 75.0% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.223 | 0.147 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 31.7% | 50.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Willy Adames | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.130 | 45.5% | 8.3% | 36.7% | 51.5% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.167 | 40.0% | 13.2% | 27.6% | 48.9% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Brandon Lowe | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 60.0% | OF | $2,900 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Nick Ciuffo | LEFT | C | $2,000 | C | $3,600 | N/A | N/A | ||||||
Team Averages | 0.303 | 0.095 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 26.9% | 54.2% |
Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Tommy Pham, Matt Duffy
Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Mallex Smith, Jake Bauers
Stackability – YELLOW
Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
Vince Velasquez | Jacob deGrom | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-170 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.339 | 0.322 | 33.9% | 1.56 | 24.1% | 39.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.276 | 0.272 | 24.5% | 0.50 | 29.3% | 43.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.285 | 31.5% | 0.41 | 28.3% | 37.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.206 | 0.242 | 32.1% | 0.29 | 33.7% | 47.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Vince Velasquez | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 15 | 4.73 | 5.13 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 42.5% | 38.1% | 15.2% | 93.9 | 9.1% | |
2018 | 25 | 3.96 | 4.05 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 38.6% | 32.8% | 15.8% | 93.9 | 11.4% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.52 | 3.00 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 4.2% | 93.4 | 8.5% |
Vince Velasquez has taken a step forward this season, but he’s still had his fair share of ups and downs. The right-hander has a solid strikeout rate of 26.3%, but his 9.3% walk rate is a tad bloated. He also doesn’t come with a long leash, as he hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches in a game since late-July. The park upgrade going into Citi Field for a matchup with the Mets is nice, and Velasquez isn’t too expensive. I’m worried about how deep into the game he can go, but a guy with his kind of strikeout upside is always in play. I like it more for GPPs than cash games on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is an elite GPP play today.
Jacob deGrom | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | $13,500 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.44 | 3.53 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 45.3% | 31.9% | 21.3% | 95.2 | 13.3% | |
2018 | 27 | 2.87 | 1.68 | 31.5% | 5.8% | 45.3% | 28.1% | 24.2% | 95.8 | 15.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 2.72 | 1.29 | 35.1% | 8.8% | 54.8% | 28.1% | 21.9% | 96.9 | 17.5% |
Jacob deGrom is priced well over $13,000 on DraftKings today, but there’s a reason for that. He’s the best pitcher on this slate by miles, and the matchup today against the Phillies is great. DeGrom has been otherworldly this season. He has a strikeout rate north of 31% and his 2.90 SIERA is one of the best marks in the league among starters. His soft contact rate (24.7%) is almost as high as his hard contact rate (28%) and he faces a Phillies lineup with the third-highest K-rate in the league against righties on the year. The price tag makes things difficult, but he’s easily the top option on the slate.
Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is super pricey, but it’s warranted.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
There’s no reason to bother with Phillies against deGrom on a full slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.366 | 0.178 | 34.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 38.9% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.235 | 42.1% | 15.7% | 24.3% | 40.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.180 | 42.4% | 7.9% | 19.4% | 54.3% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.272 | 37.3% | 11.4% | 24.3% | 29.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.233 | 42.5% | 7.0% | 22.1% | 38.8% | SS | $2,800 | 2B/SS | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.207 | 33.2% | 8.0% | 21.9% | 42.6% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.118 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 22.5% | 41.6% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.193 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 19.9% | 39.7% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Zach Eflin | RIGHT | 0.109 | 0.097 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 54.3% | 81.8% | P | $7,600 | P | $7,100 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.327 | 0.190 | 33.3% | 10.0% | 25.0% | 45.3% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Mets
Vince Velasquez has pitched well this season, but he’s also allowed a .344 wOBA on the season to left-handed hitters. The Mets don’t have much in terms of capable bats, but they do have some solid lefties. As was the case yesterday against Zach Eflin, I think the 4-man Mets stack of Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil is intriguing in GPPs. There are better offenses to target in cash games, however.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.117 | 27.5% | 5.1% | 19.7% | 50.2% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jeff McNeil | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.149 | 32.9% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 39.0% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.157 | 37.8% | 15.9% | 23.4% | 39.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.122 | 34.4% | 11.4% | 18.9% | 30.5% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.211 | 44.8% | 8.8% | 22.1% | 35.0% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.258 | 38.7% | 13.4% | 25.9% | 37.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $5,400 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.255 | 0.162 | 39.5% | 1.4% | 35.7% | 34.9% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B/OF | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Tomas Nido | RIGHT | 0.219 | 0.024 | 37.0% | 4.5% | 34.1% | 48.1% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Noah Syndergaard | RIGHT | 0.167 | 0.037 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 60.7% | 40.0% | P | $10,500 | P | $10,200 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.297 | 0.137 | 34.5% | 7.4% | 27.9% | 39.3% |
Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce
Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil
Stackability – ORANGE
St. Louis at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
St. Louis | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
John Gant | Michael Fulmer | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
STL-110 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.347 | 56.6% | 1.16 | 18.8% | 39.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.337 | 0.357 | 38.7% | 1.65 | 18.8% | 41.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.242 | 0.273 | 33.9% | 0.20 | 21.6% | 52.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.333 | 40.2% | 0.65 | 20.8% | 47.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
John Gant | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2 | 5.57 | 4.67 | 14.5% | 13.2% | 53.7% | 29.6% | 25.9% | 93.0 | 9.3% | |
2018 | 14 | 4.62 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 45.0% | 46.1% | 16.9% | 93.2 | 11.2% | |
L14 | 3 | 5.38 | 1.59 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 46.8% | 46.9% | 12.2% | 93.2 | 11.6% |
John Gant has flashed about average strikeout stuff (19.8%) alongside a bloated 11.4% walk rate. His 3.19 ERA is passable, but his 4.79 SIERA is telling a different story. Gant has also surrendered hard hits at a scary 45.3% rate. He does get a negative league shift going into the AL today, but the Tigers aren’t a daunting opponent by any means. One issue is that Gant doesn’t pitch all that deep into games. I feel like playing Gant would be getting too cute on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Gant isn’t the worst play, but I don’t see the upside.
Michael Fulmer | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 14 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25 | 4.48 | 3.83 | 16.9% | 5.9% | 49.2% | 30.0% | 18.1% | 95.8 | 9.4% | |
2018 | 21 | 4.37 | 4.71 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 43.9% | 39.4% | 15.4% | 95.8 | 10.5% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.23 | 7.56 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 25.0% | 46.4% | 21.4% | 95.9 | 10.1% |
Michael Fulmer seems to alternate good and bad starts. He fared well in his last outing against the White Sox, but today he gets a tougher matchup against the Cardinals. The right-hander has a middling 19.9% strikeout rate alongside an 8.1% walk rate. His 4.41 SIERA is also fairly pedestrian, and he has conceded hard hits at a 39.4% clip. I don’t think Fulmer is a gas can by any means, but I don’t see the need to take the risk with playing him against STL
Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is an easy fade in my eyes.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Fulmer has yielded a .334 wOBA with 13 homers allowed against left-handed hitters this season. Of course, other than Matt Carpenter, there aren’t many lefties here. As usual, Carpenter grades out as a strong option. Righties have still posted a .315 wOBA against him, so they’re not off limits by any means. Marcell Ozuna is a strong play, while Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong are decent secondary plays. Yadier Molina is also fine if he returns to the lineup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.436 | 0.304 | 49.4% | 14.9% | 22.8% | 20.6% | 3B | $4,000 | 1B/3B | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jose Martinez | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.172 | 40.4% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 48.1% | OF | $3,600 | 1B/OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Tyler O’Neill | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.226 | 39.6% | 4.3% | 41.3% | 29.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.119 | 45.2% | 5.8% | 17.7% | 48.2% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Paul DeJong | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.207 | 38.6% | 6.4% | 25.5% | 32.1% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Yairo Munoz | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.098 | 37.6% | 6.3% | 21.6% | 57.6% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Harrison Bader | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.142 | 36.1% | 7.1% | 32.0% | 44.3% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Patrick Wisdom | RIGHT | 0.421 | 0.545 | 37.5% | 15.4% | 23.1% | 37.5% | 3B | $2,100 | 1B/3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Francisco Pena | RIGHT | 0.225 | 0.060 | 26.2% | 2.3% | 26.4% | 52.5% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.339 | 0.208 | 39.0% | 7.8% | 25.2% | 41.1% |
Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna
Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong
Stackability – ORANGE
Detroit
I’m not much of a believer in John Gant, but I’m even less of a believer in the Tigers’ offense. Left-handed hitters have a collective 55.8% (!!!) hard contact rate against him this season, so I suppose you can look to some Detroit lefties if you need some savings. Jeimer Candelario stands out above the rest, while Jim Adduci and Niko Goodrum are potential secondary options. James McCann is also dirt cheap, so I don’t hate him as a punt behind the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.162 | 34.1% | 11.3% | 25.2% | 37.9% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Jim Adduci | LEFT | 0.298 | 0.152 | 38.1% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 43.4% | OF | $2,500 | 1B | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.187 | 48.1% | 6.5% | 23.5% | 35.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.338 | 0.092 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 39.4% | C | $2,300 | 1B | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Niko Goodrum | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.234 | 39.6% | 8.4% | 30.0% | 39.6% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.167 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 29.5% | 41.6% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Grayson Greiner | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.070 | 30.0% | 12.1% | 27.3% | 45.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Dawel Lugo | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.111 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 3B | $2,200 | 2B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Victor Reyes | RIGHT | 0.256 | 0.035 | 35.7% | 2.8% | 20.0% | 50.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.324 | 0.134 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 20.5% | 43.1% |
Elite Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum
Secondary Plays – James McCann, Jim Adduci
Stackability – I’m not much of a believer in John Gant, but I’m even less of a believer in the Tigers’ offense. Left-handed hitters have a collective 55.8% (!!!) hard contact rate against him this season, so I suppose you can look to some Detroit lefties if you need some savings. Jeimer Candelario stands out above the rest, while Jim Adduci and Niko Goodrum are potential secondary options. James McCann is also dirt cheap, so I don’t hate him as a punt behind the plate.
Chicago Cubs at Washington – 1:35 PM ET
Chicago Cubs | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Mike Montgomery | Erick Fedde | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CHC-105 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.340 | 30.8% | 0.59 | 18.8% | 57.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.372 | 0.414 | 34.8% | 1.29 | 13.3% | 52.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.312 | 0.334 | 32.3% | 0.61 | 13.6% | 51.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.413 | 0.392 | 36.2% | 1.93 | 18.0% | 52.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Montgomery | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 14 | 4.46 | 3.38 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 57.8% | 30.2% | 20.7% | 92.2 | 8.4% | |
2018 | 14 | 4.49 | 3.82 | 15.1% | 7.4% | 53.0% | 31.9% | 21.8% | 91.6 | 9.5% | |
L14 | 1 | 2.84 | 8.31 | 27.3% | 4.6% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 7.1% | 92.0 | 22.7% |
Mike Montgomery has a middling 15.6% strikeout rate and his 4.49 SIERA is quite a bit more pedestrian than his 3.85 ERA. Monty is a guy that relies on ground balls (53.1% GBs) more than strikeouts. He also doesn’t pitch all that deep into games, and his matchup today with the Nationals is far from ideal. He’s rarely a guy that warrants DFS consideration, and today is no different.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montgomery against the Nats.
Erick Fedde | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 3 | 4.45 | 9.39 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 61.7% | 34.6% | 15.4% | 92.9 | 5.7% | |
2018 | 6 | 4.41 | 5.79 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 52.2% | 35.5% | 16.1% | 94.3 | 7.9% | |
Fedde has an ERA of 6.00 in 7 big league starts this season, but his 4.22 ERA is much more favorable. His 18.3% K-rate is nothing special, but he’s kept the ball on the ground at a clip nearing 52%. Facing the Cubs today is tough, but Fedde is cheap enough to where he can realistically pay off his price tag. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole in cash games, but he’s a serviceable punt if you want some serious savings with your SP2.
Quick Breakdown: Fedde is an easy fade in all formats, unless you want to go YOLO with SP2 in GPPs.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Fedde has only thrown 48.1 big league innings in his career, but he’s been quite hittable along the way. His numbers against righties have been particularly brutal, so Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are all in play. The lefties are also in a good spot, so Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ are viable. The Cubs are one of the top stacking options on the slate, but it isn’t easy to afford them if you pay up for pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.181 | 27.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 34.6% | 2B | $3,900 | 1B/2B | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Tommy La Stella | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.068 | 34.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 48.7% | 3B | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.404 | 0.224 | 35.7% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 37.5% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $5,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.362 | 0.177 | 35.4% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 44.5% | OF | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Albert Almora | RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.095 | 28.6% | 5.1% | 20.1% | 51.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.138 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 20.9% | 53.2% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.085 | 30.4% | 8.6% | 22.9% | 43.4% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Jaime Garcia | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $6,900 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.197 | 41.3% | 16.8% | 35.4% | 37.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.300 | 0.129 | 29.2% | 8.6% | 27.0% | 39.0% |
Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ
Stackability – GREEN
Washington
Mike Montgomery isn’t a fantasy-friendly pitcher, but he’s decent enough to where picking on him can be complicated. He tends to limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground pretty well. Most Nationals are expensive to begin with, so if you want some Washington exposure I’d get it via the cheap bats. That means digging around the bargain bin for guys like Matt Wieters and Michael Taylor. Victor Robles and Wilmer Difo could also be in play as punts.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.143 | 36.4% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 40.3% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.468 | 0.238 | 47.6% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 20.7% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.204 | 40.0% | 16.6% | 25.1% | 45.0% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,000 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.145 | 36.8% | 10.9% | 29.7% | 50.0% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/3B | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.241 | 36.7% | 10.8% | 24.7% | 61.0% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Victor Robles | RIGHT | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A | ||||||
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.397 | 0.086 | 41.7% | 18.6% | 25.6% | 25.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Adrian Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.077 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 63.6% | SS | $2,000 | 3B | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.000 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 54.5% | P | $11,700 | P | $12,500 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.354 | 0.142 | 34.3% | 10.6% | 20.4% | 45.0% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Victor Robles, Michael Taylor, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Wilmer Difo, Trea Turner
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.