MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-16 17:36:23

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Blake Snell							Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-170							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.186	0.268	35.8%	0.30	30.9%	51.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.333	33.6%	1.38	23.0%	49.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.304	33.2%	1.11	27.7%	41.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.321	39.9%	2.17	27.1%	44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 16	Salary Rank:			3 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	32.9%	18.8%	94.3	10.8%
	2018	22	3.69	2.18	28.4%	9.7%	43.7%	33.8%	19.3%	95.5	13.6%
	L14	2	3.18	1.00	30.0%	6.7%	47.4%	36.8%	26.3%	95.9	16.0%

Snell is by far the best pitcher in the Rays’ organization and they know it. After spending a couple of weeks on the DL, they have been hesitant to give him a full workload of pitches. In his last start against the Blue Jays, he only threw 47 pitches. He’s expected to be on a pitch count again today, although we haven’t heard an exact number. If he didn’t have any restrictions, he’d be an intriguing play in this two-game slate. Given the pitch count and a matchup against the Yankees, Snell is a risky option in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is viable as an SP2, strictly given the lack of options in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 16	Salary Rank:			6 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%	92.2	15.1%
	2018	19	3.60	4.08	25.3%	6.6%	46.7%	37.2%	17.8%	91.6	13.7%
	L14	3	3.63	4.02	27.9%	8.8%	45.2%	42.9%	11.9%	91.5	12.8%

Tanaka is the clear number one in the early slate. With two subpar pitchers on the mound in Philadelphia and with Blake Snell on a pitch count, Tanaka wins that honor by default. Of course, that doesn’t mean that he’s not an excellent play. He owns a 25% strikeout rate on the season and he draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .322 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing the early slate, lock in Tanaka as your SP1.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York and are facing a pitcher that struggles to keep the ball in the park. At virtually no ownership, there are a couple of intriguing leverage plays in this lineup, even if you are planning on using Masahiro Tanaka. His ownership is going to be so high that it won’t really hurt your team if he gives up a few runs. On the season, he has allowed a .333 xwOBA to lefties and a .321 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.296	0.128	29.0%	9.6%	18.3%	46.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.312	0.084	27.1%	5.8%	15.2%	52.5%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.364	0.231	43.4%	14.0%	24.2%	42.5%	1B	$2,700	1B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.345	0.164	46.9%	9.8%	26.1%	51.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.326	0.124	36.4%	5.9%	18.6%	46.0%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.380	0.247	45.3%	8.9%	32.2%	35.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.256	0.096	30.4%	7.5%	24.9%	51.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.281	0.129	27.7%	7.1%	27.0%	45.1%	SS	$3,300	2B/SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Perez	LEFT	0.335	0.172	34.6%	6.3%	12.5%	34.6%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.322	0.153	35.6%	8.3%	22.1%	45.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jake Bauers (GPP), Tommy Pham (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a fairly difficult matchup against Blake Snell, who has an elite skill set and a bright future. On the plus side, it sounds like he is going to be on a pitch count, so there is a chance he doesn’t pitch more than four or five innings. I still prefer the two offenses in the next game, but the Yankees do have one of the most talented lineups in baseball. Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres all boast an xwOBA of at least .385 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.422	0.310	49.4%	12.1%	19.0%	34.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.459	0.357	59.8%	10.9%	25.0%	37.8%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.317	0.235	33.3%	4.9%	18.7%	43.0%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.295	0.172	29.9%	7.4%	12.6%	46.6%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.389	0.250	50.0%	10.0%	25.6%	31.0%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.233	0.096	36.1%	5.5%	29.1%	50.0%	2B	$2,400	1B/2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.310	0.111	25.3%	10.7%	18.8%	52.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.297	0.154	29.3%	3.7%	20.4%	43.9%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.131	0.000	14.3%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.317	0.187	36.4%	8.4%	21.0%	37.7%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Gleyber Torres (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Gleyber Torres (Cash), Miguel Andujar

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Philadelphia
			Corey Oswalt							Ranger Suarez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-145							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.346	23.6%	1.59	10.1%	38.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.182	50.0%	0.00	33.3%	25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.306	34.9%	1.61	21.1%	56.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.434	0.434	38.5%	4.91	6.7%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Oswalt
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			12 of 17	Salary Rank:			15 of 17	Salary Rank:

	2018	7	4.40	5.03	16.4%	5.7%	48.7%	29.8%	18.2%	90.3	7.2%
	L14	2	4.20	4.50	13.7%	2.0%	55.0%	26.2%	16.7%	90.2	7.0%

Oswalt didn’t have the best numbers in the minors earlier this season (5.40 FIP) and he hasn’t fared that well in the majors. In seven starts, he has a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He comes into today’s game as an underdog with the total set at 9.5 runs. Even on a pitch count, Blake Snell looks like a better play than Oswalt today. The Phillies’ projected lineup has an average ISO of .185 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Oswalt in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ranger Suarez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			16 of 17	Salary Rank:			9 of 17	Salary Rank:

	2018	1	4.89	7.20	14.3%	4.8%	35.3%	41.2%	5.9%	91.9	5.3%

Suarez is a 22-year old southpaw that is making his second career major league start. In his six Triple-A starts before being called up to the big leagues, he posted a 4.01 FIP with a strikeout rate of 17%. Those aren’t exactly the most appealing minor league statistics. With that said, he comes into this game as a favorite and he’s pitching at home against the Mets, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .286 with an ISO of only .126 against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Suarez is in the mix as an SP2 in the early slate, which is scary.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets re playing on the road, but they are facing a rookie pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Ranger Suarez didn’t have the best numbers in the minors and that’s unlikely to change at the next level, at least not in the short term. The issue here is that the Mets have been awful against southpaws all season. They only have four hitters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .300 against left-handed pitching — Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, and Devin Mesoraco.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.295	0.130	30.9%	6.1%	24.5%	47.8%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.274	0.022	27.6%	8.1%	32.3%	51.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.336	0.115	31.1%	8.4%	7.5%	32.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.336	0.191	33.3%	8.9%	31.7%	52.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.280	0.103	30.6%	9.2%	26.3%	51.0%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.348	0.214	35.6%	22.0%	27.5%	35.6%	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.332	0.160	33.3%	14.8%	18.0%	46.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.280	0.200	33.3%	8.2%	12.2%	36.8%	3B	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Corey Oswalt	RIGHT	0.090	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$6,200	P	$5,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.286	0.126	28.4%	9.5%	20.0%	50.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, Devin Mesoraco (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are the top offense to target in the early slate, but they will likely be the highest owned. They draw a favorable matchup against Corey Oswalt, who has a low strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .346 xwOBA to lefties and a 35% hard contact rate to righties. Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rhys Hoskins, Justin Bour, and Wilson Ramos all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.325	0.125	23.6%	14.8%	22.0%	42.5%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.381	0.224	35.3%	8.3%	22.8%	42.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.371	0.246	45.1%	7.8%	21.6%	39.9%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.383	0.269	38.0%	11.8%	25.2%	29.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.377	0.233	41.3%	15.9%	24.6%	40.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.361	0.159	42.6%	8.0%	20.0%	54.9%	C	$2,900	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.301	0.193	26.2%	7.4%	20.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.324	0.213	25.9%	4.9%	14.3%	52.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Ranger Suarez	LEFT	0.023	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.316	0.185	30.9%	8.8%	26.4%	49.0%

Elite Plays – Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rhys Hoskins, Justin Bour, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Jon Lester							Ivan Nova
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.376	35.8%	1.76	19.4%	39.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.395	33.5%	1.65	11.4%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.369	34.5%	1.39	18.1%	36.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.324	34.9%	1.26	21.6%	48.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:		$14,600
	Salary Rank:			8 of 18	Salary Rank:			8 of 18	Salary Rank:		6 of 18
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	24	4.80	3.89	18.4%	9.1%	37.0%	34.8%	15.4%	91.0	8.3%
	L14	3	5.57	11.20	13.2%	8.8%	30.0%	37.7%	13.2%	91.0	8.4%

Lester has been lucky this season, but regression has finally started to rear its ugly head. In his last three starts, we’ve seen him give up 17 earned runs. It always feels good when what we expect to happen comes to fruition. With a strikeout rate of only 18% on the season, he is an easy fade tonight against the Pirates. Not only is he pitching on the road, but Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has three right-handed hitters with at least a .370 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lester in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:			7 of 18	Salary Rank:			13 of 18	Salary Rank:		10 of 18
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%	92.8	8.4%
	2018	22	4.42	4.42	16.5%	5.1%	44.9%	34.1%	17.2%	93.0	8.7%
	L14	2	5.58	5.40	13.3%	11.1%	41.2%	32.4%	11.8%	93.1	8.3%

Nova hasn’t been in the best of form recently and he hasn’t been great on the season. In 22 starts, he owns a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. He used to be a pitcher that we could target against right-handed heavy offenses, but even that hasn’t worked out this season. With his struggles against lefties, he’s an easy fade tonight against the Cubs. Chicago’s projected lineup has five lefties in it and as a whole, an average xwOBA of .352 with a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Nova in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs aren’t playing in the best ballpark for offensive production, but they draw an excellent matchup against Ivan Nova. In addition to having a low strikeout rate, he has allowed a .395 xwOBA to lefties and a .324 xwOBA to righties. While I don’t mind the righties as a part of a full stack, they all have below-average fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching. The top targets here are Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber, who all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.343	0.279	38.1%	3.2%	26.6%	45.5%	2B	$3,900	2B/SS	$5,000	2B	$9,500
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.136	31.2%	9.3%	11.2%	44.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,300
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.373	0.186	36.5%	14.0%	12.8%	44.3%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.407	0.209	35.7%	11.6%	9.4%	37.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
5	David Bote	RIGHT	0.443	0.222	40.0%	13.5%	19.2%	60.0%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,600
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.385	0.263	42.8%	15.3%	25.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.306	0.152	31.0%	7.2%	20.9%	50.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.275	0.091	23.3%	0.0%	23.1%	75.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,300	P	$14,600
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.289	0.086	30.5%	9.0%	22.7%	43.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,900
	Team Averages		0.352	0.180	34.3%	9.2%	19.0%	48.8%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber (GPP), David Bote (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against Jon Lester. While he still carries name value, he’s not a very good pitcher at this stage of his career. He has a below-average strikeout rate and has allowed a .365+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Pirates don’t have a great track record against Lester, but most of those BvP stats were accumulated when he was a better pitcher. Starling Marte, David Freese, and Francisco Cervelli all stand out as viable options, as they all boast a .370+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.285	0.096	22.4%	4.4%	18.9%	44.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.371	0.190	39.5%	7.3%	22.7%	53.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,100
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.292	0.192	37.1%	10.6%	24.8%	39.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.397	0.144	43.4%	10.0%	20.9%	52.6%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.391	0.167	36.6%	17.9%	19.4%	31.7%	C	$2,700	C	$4,200	C	$8,100
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.337	0.188	31.1%	12.5%	21.4%	41.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.327	0.167	38.1%	7.1%	17.6%	36.5%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.283	0.081	32.1%	7.2%	11.6%	41.1%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,200
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.068	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	58.3%	60.0%	P	$7,600	P	$6,500	P	$13,000
	Team Averages		0.306	0.136	31.1%	8.6%	24.0%	44.6%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte (GPP), David Freese (GPP), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte (Cash), David Freese (Cash), Francisco Cervelli (FD), Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Washington								St. Louis
			Tanner Roark							Luke Weaver
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-130							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.317	25.1%	1.15	22.7%	37.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.360	0.359	34.0%	1.44	19.2%	41.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.339	29.1%	0.85	18.3%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.309	35.5%	0.91	23.2%	43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			4 of 18	Salary Rank:			2 of 18	Salary Rank:		2 of 18
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	23	4.27	4.12	20.5%	7.4%	42.7%	27.2%	18.4%	91.3	8.9%
	L14	3	3.87	1.66	19.1%	1.2%	42.2%	16.7%	13.6%	91.7	8.4%

Roark has been all over the map this season. After a stretch of terrible starts, he’s posted four strong outings in a row (averaging 26 fantasy points during that stretch). His numbers as a whole are mediocre, but he does a nice job of limiting walks and hard contact. While a matchup against the Cardinals is typically favorable for most right-handed pitchers, Roark has actually fared better against lefties than he has against righties this season. I see the appeal given his recent form, but I’m hesitant to play Roark on the road against a surging Cardinals’ team.

Quick Breakdown: I won’t talk anyone out of Roark tonight, but he’s not for me.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luke Weaver
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:			10 of 18	Salary Rank:			9 of 18	Salary Rank:		8 of 18
	2017	10	3.29	3.88	28.6%	6.8%	49.4%	25.9%	19.1%	93.2	9.7%
	2018	23	4.30	4.66	21.0%	8.1%	42.1%	34.7%	17.5%	93.8	9.8%
	L14	2	3.49	4.15	20.5%	5.1%	55.2%	44.8%	10.3%	93.7	9.3%

Weaver hasn’t been able to find the 2017 form that made us all fall in love with him last season. In 23 starts this season, he owns a 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 35%. To make matters worse, he cut his right index finger on an aluminum can and was forced to miss a start. It doesn’t sound like a big issue, but that could easily break open again and force him to leave the game early. Even at 100%, I wouldn’t have much interest in Weaver in a matchup against the Nationals, whose projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags for Weaver right now.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals aren’t an offense that I am looking to stack in this pitcher-friendly ballpark, but they are very interesting from a one-off standpoint. Luke Weaver has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .359 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. We know the Nationals’ offense is loaded with left-handed power. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Daniel Murphy all boast a .375_ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. I know that Trea Turner can steal a base against anyone, but Weaver is actually very good at holding runners, as is Yadier Molina.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.375	0.103	39.0%	9.0%	15.4%	45.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,300
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.322	0.152	31.3%	8.2%	20.7%	53.0%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.398	0.280	41.7%	18.4%	25.3%	35.8%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.384	0.199	37.1%	8.3%	14.6%	36.4%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,300
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.384	0.215	34.7%	18.8%	17.0%	52.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,400
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.389	0.186	42.1%	5.7%	20.3%	47.7%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
7	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.388	0.165	24.1%	7.6%	7.6%	33.9%	2B	$3,300	1B/2B	$3,800	2B	$7,300
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.284	0.120	31.2%	9.0%	13.9%	37.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.162	0.071	10.0%	0.0%	30.0%	84.2%	P	$8,600	P	$9,100	P	$17,600
	Team Averages		0.343	0.166	32.4%	9.4%	18.3%	47.3%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a mediocre matchup against Tanner Roark. He has been in much better form recently and on the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. The reason to like the Cardinals isn’t their matchup, it’s the fact that they have won eight games in a row. Throughout the years, we’ve seen this team go on some amazing runs and it feels a little like they are destined to make the playoffs. I won’t be forcing the Cardinals’ hitters into my lineups, but Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, and Paul DeJong are all viable secondary plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.434	0.318	49.6%	14.2%	23.2%	19.6%	1B	$4,400	1B/3B	$5,400	3B	$10,400
2	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.364	0.196	45.7%	4.7%	13.5%	41.6%	C	$2,900	C	$4,300	C	$8,600
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.403	0.180	41.1%	8.1%	16.6%	47.2%	OF	$3,100	1B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,700
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.349	0.110	44.7%	5.7%	17.8%	47.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,600
5	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.373	0.204	39.1%	7.0%	24.1%	30.5%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,500	SS	$9,300
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.277	0.102	34.2%	9.5%	22.3%	38.3%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,800	3B	$7,300
7	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.301	0.156	27.1%	7.3%	15.4%	47.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
8	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.267	0.108	32.1%	7.5%	30.1%	44.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,400
9	Luke Weaver	RIGHT	0.133	0.000	12.5%	3.6%	39.3%	70.0%	P	$7,000	P	$7,100	P	$13,800
	Team Averages		0.322	0.153	36.2%	7.5%	22.5%	43.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Colorado								Atlanta
			Jon Gray							Julio Teheran
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-105							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.323	39.3%	1.55	29.6%	40.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.371	42.1%	1.25	18.5%	36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.275	31.0%	0.43	24.5%	54.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.324	35.9%	1.83	25.3%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:		$16,900
	Salary Rank:			2 of 18	Salary Rank:			4 of 18	Salary Rank:		3 of 18
	2017	20	3.74	3.67	24.3%	6.5%	48.9%	28.4%	22.7%	96.0	8.8%
	2018	22	3.36	4.81	27.1%	6.8%	47.7%	35.0%	16.0%	94.9	13.6%
	L14	3	4.12	3.00	20.5%	6.0%	44.1%	42.4%	20.3%	94.1	15.7%

Gray is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound tonight, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his ERA (4.81). Luckily, we know that there are more predictive statistics out there (basically all of them). In his 22 starts, he has a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He keeps the ball on the ground and has good control. He’s a pitcher that always finds his way into my lineups when he’s playing on the road, similar to his teammate German Marquez. The Braves are far from an ideal matchup, but Gray has plenty of talent and see a massive ballpark boost pitching in Atlanta.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is one of the top pitchers of the slate, especially when you factor in price.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:			6 of 18	Salary Rank:			5 of 18	Salary Rank:		4 of 18
	2017	32	4.89	4.49	18.6%	8.9%	40.0%	30.4%	21.1%	91.4	9.4%
	2018	23	4.72	4.33	22.0%	11.8%	38.5%	38.8%	18.8%	89.9	10.8%
	L14	3	5.08	3.78	22.5%	14.1%	27.9%	30.2%	20.9%	90.4	10.0%

Teheran has struggled at home ever since the Braves moved into SunTrust Park. While it’s not as hitter-friendly as most people think (even for lefties), Teheran just hasn’t been great here. With that said, his numbers have improved a bit this season and he does own a 22% strikeout rate. He still carries upside, even though he has a low floor as well. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Rockies, whose projected lineup has a .185 ISO and a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching. If there are only three lefties in the Rockies’ actual lineup, Teheran could be a sneaky GPP play.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on what the Rockies’ lineup looks like, Teheran could make sense as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have one of the easiest matchups to break down. Take a look at Julio Teheran and his splits:

vs. left-handed hitters: .371 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate and a 19% strikeout rate
vs. right-handed hitters: .324 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate and a 25% strikeout rate

Targeting lefties against Teheran has been an age-old tradition of mine, especially in this ballpark. While I wouldn’t call it hitter-friendly, it’s certainly better for lefties than it is for righties. Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and David Dahl all bat from the left side and all boast a .199+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They will also be low owned in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.361	0.231	35.9%	10.1%	19.6%	41.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.331	0.130	34.4%	7.1%	16.7%	48.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.320	0.221	39.1%	9.0%	23.0%	44.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,100
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.350	0.199	39.0%	9.6%	18.9%	39.5%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,900	3B	$8,900
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.350	0.232	43.8%	6.8%	25.4%	34.4%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,900	SS	$8,800
6	David Dahl	LEFT	0.386	0.250	38.1%	8.9%	20.0%	44.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.306	0.169	33.0%	9.2%	27.0%	64.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800	LF	$7,700
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.330	0.199	39.4%	11.8%	28.0%	37.6%	C	$2,400	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.133	0.038	0.0%	6.9%	51.7%	70.0%	P	$9,100	P	$8,700	P	$16,900
	Team Averages		0.319	0.185	33.6%	8.8%	25.6%	47.2%

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (Cash), Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves draw a difficult matchup against Jon Gray and they could be without their leadoff man, Ronald Acuna. He was drilled by a 97-MPH fastball on the first pitch of last night’s game and is being listed as day-to-day. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are easy fades, as Gray has held righties to a .275 xwOBA on a 55% ground ball rate. He has allowed a lot of hard contact to lefties, but that comes with a 30% strikeout rate. Outside of a Freddie Freeman (.418 xwOBA against right-handed pitching) one-off in tournaments, I will be avoiding the Braves’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.289	0.130	27.9%	7.1%	12.8%	45.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,400
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.309	0.214	35.0%	4.9%	18.2%	36.7%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,800	2B	$8,900
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.418	0.186	44.4%	13.4%	16.9%	36.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,800
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.404	0.183	42.9%	10.3%	9.1%	40.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.333	0.180	33.7%	7.1%	28.9%	33.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.311	0.151	37.0%	12.2%	19.5%	51.5%	3B	$3,300	3B/SS	$4,200	3B	$8,000
7	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.316	0.138	35.6%	5.5%	9.1%	32.8%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	C	$6,500
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.275	0.142	31.9%	6.8%	22.7%	45.0%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,300
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.230	0.214	26.7%	0.0%	16.7%	58.3%	P	$7,800	P	$8,200	P	$15,800
	Team Averages		0.321	0.171	35.0%	7.5%	17.1%	42.2%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 16th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Washington at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Colorado at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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