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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-04 02:16:48

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

St. Louis Milwaukee
stlouismlb Michael Wacha milwaukeemlb Matt Garza
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-112 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.317 30.9% 8.7% 19.5% 45.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.341 35.6% 10.0% 12.1% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.306 28.2% 6.4% 22.1% 48.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.290 32.7% 5.3% 19.0% 53.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 26 Salary Rank: 14 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 19 3.95 3.71 23.8% 7.5% 47.1% 28.5% 20.5%
L30 5 2.94 1.93 29.8% 4.0% 46.9% 25.9% 22.2%

Wacha had a great start to the season, his production then dropped off for a couple of months, and now he is back in great form. In his last five starts, he has a 2.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has always been good at inducing ground balls and soft contact and he now has an above-average strikeout rate to go with it. While this ballpark isn’t ideal for a pitcher, Wacha gets to face a right-handed heavy Brewers’ offense that has the second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There are two intriguing pitchers in the Cubs’ game, but Wacha is really the only other viable play in the early three-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is viable in all formats and one of the top targets in the early slate.

Matt Garza
matt-garza-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 15 4.90 3.83 16.3% 7.3% 43.9% 33.1% 17.5%
L30 4 5.72 2.11 13.3% 10.0% 41.5% 29.0% 26.1%

Garza will be activated off of the DL to make today’s start against the Cardinals. He’s had a decent season by his standards, but he doesn’t really fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He has a high SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate. The one positive in this matchup against the Cardinals is that he will likely face seven or eight right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, he has held righties to a .290 xwOBA with a 53% ground ball rate and a 19% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: This is a decent matchup for Garza, but he might be rusty in his first start back from injury. I’ll take Wacha at the higher price point.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals aren’t nearly as bad offensively as people want to think. On the season, they are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park and they draw a decent matchup against Matt Garza. The issue is that they don’t have the left-handed batters that we usually like to target against Garza. Matt Carpenter was a late scratch last night, but would be the preferred target if he’s back in the lineup today. I wouldn’t automatically rule out the righties here, but keep in mind that there is a game in Coors Field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.375 0.389 0.221 43.5% 15.8% 18.2% 24.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.380 0.358 0.185 37.8% 10.6% 24.7% 50.7% OF $3,500 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.348 0.335 0.261 40.7% 1.3% 31.3% 32.4% SS $3,100 2B/SS $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.344 0.330 0.188 30.5% 10.4% 22.5% 41.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.294 0.305 0.126 34.2% 4.3% 15.8% 45.7% C $3,000 C $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.327 0.357 0.151 29.0% 12.7% 20.0% 45.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.333 0.310 0.137 22.6% 9.2% 13.5% 48.9% 2B $2,300 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.314 0.308 0.229 41.9% 5.1% 30.8% 36.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.038 0.096 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 40.7% 83.3% P $8,400 P $9,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

Michael Wacha isn’t a pitcher that I like to target hitters against, especially when he’s in good form. He’s typically one of the streakier pitchers in baseball and he has been scary good in his last five outings. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Eric Sogard is a decent punt batting leadoff, while Eric Thames and Travis Shaw always provide some upside as one-offs. With that said, I see all three as secondary plays, even in this small early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.382 0.347 0.124 26.2% 14.5% 12.4% 39.6% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,900 N/A N/A
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.396 0.351 0.291 43.4% 16.0% 26.5% 40.0% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.335 0.277 41.8% 8.6% 22.5% 45.6% OF $4,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.411 0.374 0.293 40.4% 10.8% 20.5% 45.3% 3B $3,500 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.364 0.324 0.186 33.7% 11.4% 29.6% 48.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.254 0.267 0.121 33.7% 6.3% 28.0% 40.2% C $2,100 C $2,200 N/A N/A
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.305 0.286 0.198 33.6% 7.7% 38.5% 43.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.308 0.272 0.135 27.5% 4.9% 17.7% 51.9% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.118 0.133 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 85.7% P $6,500 P $6,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Sogard, Eric Thames (GPP), Travis Shaw (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Arizona Chicago Cubs
arizonamlb Zack Greinke cubsmlb Jose Quintana
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.296 33.6% 5.6% 23.4% 48.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.278 31.7% 4.5% 24.0% 51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.284 31.4% 5.8% 23.7% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.301 32.9% 7.7% 23.1% 38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $12,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 26 Salary Rank: 3 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.11 4.37 20.1% 6.2% 45.9% 30.7% 20.3%
2017 21 3.30 2.84 27.9% 5.1% 47.3% 35.1% 21.7%
L30 5 3.39 2.12 26.0% 3.9% 48.8% 36.0% 21.4%

Greinke has been solid all season. He has pitched well in difficult matchups, he has pitched well in bad ballparks, and he has pitched well on the road. In 21 starts, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. Surprisingly, he has allowed more hard contact this season, but that has yet to haunt him. He will try to do what Zack Godley did to the Cubs last night. The wind may be a difference maker though, instead of it blowing in at ten MPH like last night, it will be blowing out to left at close to ten MPH. Greinke is still viable in all formats given the lack of options, but he wouldn’t be a core play in a full slate.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is viable in cash games and tournaments, even though he’s facing a good offense with the wind blowing out to left field.

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $10,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 26 Salary Rank: 2 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 21 3.97 4.16 26.0% 8.7% 42.2% 32.5% 17.6%
L30 5 3.04 3.45 33.9% 7.6% 41.8% 37.7% 15.9%

Quintana is making his fourth start with the Cubs and so far, so good. He already has 25 strikeouts in a Cubs’ uniform, which is shown in his 34% strikeout rate in his last five outings. The Diamondbacks have two very good hitters against lefties, but the rest of their lineup is exploitable. If you look at the projected lineup below, six of their starters (including the pitcher) have an xwOBA under .320 against southpaws this season. Quintana is firmly in play here, even with the wind blowing out to left. He needs to pitch around Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez, but he should be in for a nice outing if he can accomplish that task.

Quick Breakdown: There are three viable pitching options in the early slate and it’s all going to come down to price. Quintana is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Even though there is a helping wind headed out to left field, there are more negatives than positives in today’s matchup against Jose Quintana. In addition to the great form, Quintana has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez are two of the best hitters in baseball against lefties, but I see them as one-off tournament targets in a slate that features a Coors Field game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.335 0.317 0.152 28.6% 2.8% 14.1% 57.1% OF $3,300 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.339 0.290 0.240 29.9% 3.8% 10.1% 53.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.324 0.263 0.138 27.3% 9.1% 24.2% 30.2% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.339 0.389 0.133 50.0% 18.9% 17.9% 47.0% 1B $4,600 1B $5,000 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.623 0.510 0.628 50.0% 14.0% 18.0% 29.4% OF $4,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.244 0.244 0.179 30.4% 12.4% 39.2% 63.0% 3B $3,700 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.263 0.267 0.114 23.6% 1.2% 29.6% 50.9% 2B $2,200 2B $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.355 0.351 0.206 44.0% 15.0% 22.5% 28.0% C $2,400 C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.174 0.263 0.000 60.0% 11.1% 33.3% 20.0% P $10,200 P $12,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in the same boat as the Diamondbacks. Despite a helping wind, there aren’t any hitters that stand out as elite plays in a slate that features a Coors Field game. Zack Greinke has been in great form all season and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA. I don’t make a habit of targeting hitters against elite pitchers, especially when there are viable alternatives.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.316 0.333 0.151 34.9% 11.5% 12.3% 54.1% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.372 0.324 0.225 30.4% 11.7% 20.9% 38.6% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.367 0.398 0.232 32.6% 14.2% 12.1% 37.5% 1B $4,600 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.287 0.210 33.1% 7.0% 27.8% 51.7% C $3,500 C $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.318 0.363 0.255 35.6% 11.7% 27.0% 41.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.297 0.288 0.186 32.6% 4.9% 22.9% 39.4% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.316 0.325 0.155 27.8% 8.4% 11.6% 48.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Jon Jay LEFT 0.345 0.305 0.103 25.2% 9.9% 21.0% 50.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.000 0.038 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% P $8,800 P $10,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

NY Mets Colorado
nymetsmlb Rafael Montero coloradomlb German Marquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-160 12.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.332 25.7% 12.5% 18.1% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.303 31.3% 7.8% 20.8% 49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.341 30.3% 13.7% 24.4% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.321 38.1% 6.3% 22.3% 40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rafael Montero
rafael-montero-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 25 of 26 Salary Rank: 25 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 7 4.71 5.56 21.6% 11.7% 45.2% 27.0% 17.2%
L30 4 4.69 5.47 20.2% 9.2% 43.8% 26.3% 17.1%

The Rockies have only scored ten runs in the first two games of this series. While that’s not bad, that’s not very Coors-like. They seem poised for a breakout and Montero may be on the receiving end of it. He has not pitched well this season, posting a 4.71 SIERA with a walk rate of 12%. He isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters and we obviously don’t want to play him in Coors Field.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montero in all formats.

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 26 Salary Rank: 23 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 17 4.10 4.08 23.0% 7.3% 42.4% 35.9% 15.0%
L30 5 3.07 3.51 29.8% 5.3% 48.2% 34.5% 16.7%

Marquez has looked good and bad at times this season. Overall, he has a mediocre 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. His Achilles Heel has been his hard contact rate (35%). You don’t get away with giving up hard contact in this ballpark. A matchup against the Mets doesn’t help his cause, as New York is ranked tenth in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Marquez in all formats. This is the game to target for hitters in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are sizable underdogs today, but we can throw that out the window when it comes to Coors Field. This is the best hitter’s park in baseball and New York took full advantage last night by putting up ten runs. Hitters from both sides of the plate are viable targets here, but we should give a slight edge to those that bat from the right side. Since the start of last season, German Marquez has allowed a .321 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. Load up on the Mets’ offense in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.419 0.392 0.298 41.7% 14.1% 21.7% 36.2% OF $4,700 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.312 0.359 0.161 36.4% 11.2% 14.5% 42.0% 3B $3,600 2B/SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.338 0.329 0.173 40.5% 6.0% 15.5% 37.4% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.371 0.368 0.273 42.8% 9.4% 22.5% 33.2% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.359 0.365 0.220 34.9% 9.2% 13.3% 36.2% 2B $3,600 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.336 0.327 0.186 33.8% 6.1% 13.3% 36.6% 1B $3,700 1B/3B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT SS $3,000 SS $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.262 0.315 0.099 31.8% 5.3% 26.0% 43.7% C $3,200 C $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.110 0.130 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 75.0% P $5,500 P $4,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, Amed Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total in the slate and it’s not particularly close. They draw an exploitable matchup against Rafael Montero and they get to face him at home in Coors Field. Montero hasn’t allowed a ton of hard contact, but he has given up a .337+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed pitchers in the last two seasons. Fading the chalk can be profitable in tournaments, but I’m going to eat the Rockies’ chalk in this case. I will be stacking the Rockies in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.404 0.351 0.290 39.0% 7.9% 22.5% 35.8% OF $4,900 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.306 0.319 0.059 26.7% 8.1% 13.7% 57.3% 2B $3,800 2B $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.339 0.321 0.228 36.4% 7.3% 18.7% 36.1% 3B $4,800 3B $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.403 0.337 0.264 33.7% 9.3% 27.7% 43.1% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.379 0.332 0.205 37.7% 4.4% 13.2% 46.9% OF $3,700 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
6 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.281 0.268 0.148 34.3% 9.3% 34.8% 34.6% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.290 0.302 0.125 25.4% 11.3% 19.8% 46.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.281 0.302 0.093 23.8% 7.2% 11.4% 54.5% C $3,200 C $3,500 N/A N/A
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.152 0.154 0.000 23.5% 0.0% 34.6% 78.6% P $7,000 P $5,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-160 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.315 35.7% 16.0% 26.0% 34.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 0.342 36.8% 9.8% 18.5% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.294 24.2% 17.3% 19.2% 60.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.301 29.7% 7.5% 18.3% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 26 Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 10 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.46 4.57 22.6% 16.7% 48.2% 29.5% 21.3%
L30 4 4.92 4.34 25.0% 15.5% 54.3% 28.0% 18.0%

Romano has a 23% strikeout rate in his first five major league starts, but we shouldn’t be buying what he’s selling. In ten Triple-A starts earlier this year, his strikeout rate was only 15%. Basically, it’s only a matter of time before the big leagues figure him out and start making better contact. His command is also a concern (17%) and he comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against a Pirates’ offense that has the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Romano in all formats.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 26 Salary Rank: 18 of 26 Salary Rank: 15 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 21 4.87 4.84 18.9% 9.9% 43.9% 33.0% 17.0%
L30 6 5.03 3.27 18.7% 11.9% 48.9% 33.7% 20.7%

Kuhl isn’t having a great season overall, posting a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 10%. The opposing lineup matters for all pitcher, but especially for Kuhl, who has some drastic splits. He has been very tough on righties, but has allowed a .342 xwOBA to lefties since the start of last season. He should have the platoon advantage tonight against the Reds, although he will still have to face the likes of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Jesse Winker.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is a decent value at the price, but he’s far from a core play in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds’ matchup against Chad Kuhl is one of the easiest to break down in the slate. In case you skipped over the Kuhl blurb above, I’ll repeat what I said. He is very tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .342 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Rookie Jesse Winker provides nice value if he’s batting second again, while Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.300 0.266 0.081 17.9% 8.9% 20.3% 45.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
2 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.339 0.380 0.077 45.5% 23.5% 11.8% 45.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.423 0.262 36.2% 17.2% 11.7% 36.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.337 0.289 0.247 34.2% 5.1% 27.7% 30.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.431 0.359 0.312 41.5% 6.3% 20.7% 41.1% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $4,600 2B $9,000
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.341 0.336 0.193 29.3% 11.0% 23.2% 43.9% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.255 0.268 0.077 19.7% 1.8% 14.3% 42.9% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.311 0.325 0.128 34.6% 7.5% 14.9% 43.3% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.000 0.077 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $5,600 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

We shouldn’t put a ton of stock into Sal Romano splits in his first five major league starts. As mentioned above, he had a 15% strikeout rate in the minors this season, so we should expect some regression moving forward. The Pirates’ offense has been tilting this season, but once again, they have a high implied run total. I’m not going to label the stack YELLOW / GREEN again, because that clearly isn’t working. There are some viable one-off targets though, including Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.320 0.280 0.096 23.6% 4.9% 23.5% 51.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.314 0.332 0.113 29.7% 8.5% 11.6% 49.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.357 0.179 34.3% 10.5% 17.4% 41.1% OF $4,000 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.341 0.333 0.231 34.5% 10.2% 21.3% 51.2% 1B $3,500 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.346 0.106 30.3% 12.1% 20.1% 55.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.321 0.314 0.175 25.5% 7.2% 11.0% 40.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.337 0.341 0.137 33.3% 10.5% 20.0% 48.6% C $2,400 C $2,300 C $4,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.326 0.315 0.151 27.2% 10.5% 14.9% 45.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.030 0.142 0.000 33.3% 4.2% 33.3% 66.7% P $5,900 P $5,700 P $11,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit Baltimore
detroitmlb Matt Boyd baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-126 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.289 22.7% 6.9% 16.2% 55.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.345 31.2% 12.9% 19.7% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.328 35.5% 7.8% 18.5% 36.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.347 33.9% 6.6% 17.4% 39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 18 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.38 4.53 19.9% 7.0% 38.1% 30.0% 19.2%
2017 14 5.10 5.30 15.8% 8.4% 42.4% 37.2% 20.6%
L30 3 4.30 4.19 20.5% 5.1% 37.5% 21.1% 33.3%

We know that the Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but it’s going to take more than that for me to roster Matt Boyd. In 14 starts this season, he has a 5.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a hard contact rate of 37%. To make matters worse, he is pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly environment and he is facing a team that is still trying to win baseball games.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is a hard pass for me tonight, even though Baltimore has struggled against southpaws.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26 Salary Rank: 19 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 14 5.35 7.65 15.9% 10.2% 39.1% 35.5% 18.6%
L30 4 4.60 6.10 20.9% 8.8% 36.5% 33.3% 14.3%

Tillman might be having a worse season than Matt Boyd and that’s saying something. In 14 starts, he has a 5.35 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 35%. The Tigers haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, but their expected wOBA is significantly higher than their actual wOBA, which suggests some positive regression moving forward. Tillman doesn’t have the strikeout upside to make up for his mistakes, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tillman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have little to play for at this point of the season, but they draw one of the best matchups in the slate. In addition to the low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Chris Tillman has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Say what you want about this lineup, but they hit the ball incredibly hard. Every single starter in their projected lineup has a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.303 0.314 0.115 34.7% 10.4% 12.5% 32.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.174 57.1% 9.8% 21.6% 54.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 LF $5,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.221 42.7% 12.5% 27.9% 36.8% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 LF $9,600
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.314 0.385 0.184 46.0% 10.0% 20.1% 42.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.295 0.334 0.145 45.1% 7.3% 25.6% 40.9% 3B $2,800 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.308 0.375 0.133 43.5% 8.9% 13.0% 39.3% C $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.344 0.316 0.139 34.6% 6.4% 21.8% 48.1% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.242 0.303 0.105 43.4% 8.3% 26.5% 39.0% C $2,600 C $4,400 C $8,400
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.397 0.321 0.118 42.2% 3.8% 11.3% 53.3% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,400 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jim Adduci, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are similar to the Tigers in that their expected wOBA is a lot higher than their actual wOBA, although with Baltimore we are talking about left-handed pitching. The gap between the two suggests some positive regression, particularly for Manny Machado and Trey Mancini. I love targeting right-handed hitters against Matt Boyd, as he has given up a .351 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact to righties since the start of last season. An Orioles’ stack isn’t the worst play in the world, especially since it should be fairly low owned.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.321 0.310 0.186 30.8% 6.3% 22.3% 37.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.315 0.388 0.214 50.6% 8.8% 18.4% 43.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.385 0.386 0.296 40.5% 8.3% 22.9% 43.2% 2B $3,900 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
4 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.289 0.331 0.155 33.8% 3.7% 24.1% 49.4% OF $3,000 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.314 0.335 0.163 34.0% 10.1% 38.4% 34.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.336 0.345 0.125 42.2% 4.5% 28.4% 33.3% C $3,100 C $4,300 C $8,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.318 0.326 0.135 36.7% 9.1% 29.3% 50.0% SS $2,500 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.302 0.278 0.100 29.7% 6.1% 18.4% 33.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.245 0.253 0.121 19.1% 12.8% 33.3% 61.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 LF $6,000

Elite Plays – Adam Jones (DK), Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones (FD & FDRFT), Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious