MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-09 18:01:23

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Anibal Sanchez							Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-146							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.309	31.1%	1.13	25.3%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.233	0.245	24.1%	0.37	30.4%	46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.272	25.8%	1.02	23.8%	39.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.339	31.7%	0.90	18.5%	50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			6 of 17	Salary Rank:			7 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%	90.8	9.8%
	2018	14	3.86	2.89	24.6%	7.7%	42.3%	28.3%	24.8%	90.7	9.8%
	L14	2	3.51	3.65	26.5%	8.2%	51.6%	28.1%	34.4%	90.8	11.2%

We have a three-game early slate on tap today with plenty of pitching options. Sanchez has really pitched well for the Braves, posting a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% this season. He’s one of the only pitchers on the mound today that has a soft contact rate that is nearly as high as his hard contact rate. Unfortunately, he draws a difficult matchup on the road against a trending Nationals’ offense. Why take Sanchez against the Nationals when you can target Junior Guerra against the Padres at a cheaper price point?

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but I prefer other options.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			9 of 17	Salary Rank:			10 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.41	2.96	22.7%	9.6%	45.8%	29.3%	21.7%	89.9	8.8%
	2018	21	4.64	3.78	20.7%	11.5%	50.2%	30.4%	17.6%	89.6	9.3%
	L14	2	5.94	4.26	16.7%	16.7%	51.4%	33.3%	13.9%	90.2	7.2%

Gonzalez isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s not one that I go out of my way to target in DFS. In 21 starts this season, he owns a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 12%. His high walk rate and refusal to throw strikes out over the heart of the plate leads to a high pitch count. This is why we rarely see him pitch more than seven innings in any single outing. To make matters worse, he draws a difficult matchup against the Braves, who have seven batters in their lineup with at least a .320 xwOBA and at least a .170 ISO against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gonzalez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are underdogs today, but the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs, which is high for this ballpark. They draw a decent matchup against Gio Gonzalez, who has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki, Adam Duvall, and Johan Camargo all bat from the right side and all have good power numbers against southpaws. Even though Freddie Freeman is left-handed, he has a good track record against Gonzalez in his career — 15-for-48 with four home runs and six doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.320	0.197	37.0%	9.3%	26.7%	50.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.354	0.221	40.2%	3.6%	14.6%	40.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.406	0.261	39.5%	8.2%	21.5%	39.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.326	0.172	38.0%	9.8%	15.3%	47.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.389	0.226	43.1%	8.7%	15.9%	39.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.369	0.207	46.9%	14.7%	22.5%	26.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.362	0.295	39.4%	6.4%	18.1%	42.3%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.277	0.173	42.3%	8.5%	28.0%	39.2%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Anibal Sanchez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$8,800	P	$8,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.311	0.195	36.3%	7.7%	29.2%	36.0%

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki (DK)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Adam Duvall, Johan Camargo

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have a difficult matchup on paper, as Anibal Sanchez has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate this season. With that said, their offense has started to break out of its funk since the All-Star break. We know the talent is there, as six of the first seven batters in their lineup has a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.394	0.112	41.3%	10.3%	13.3%	46.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.326	0.155	32.2%	8.2%	20.8%	52.2%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.211	37.8%	9.1%	14.9%	36.5%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.397	0.280	42.4%	18.8%	26.2%	36.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.379	0.229	34.6%	17.4%	17.9%	50.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.389	0.283	37.6%	9.3%	19.6%	32.2%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.386	0.167	19.4%	8.8%	8.8%	30.1%	2B	$3,500	1B/2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.277	0.098	27.9%	9.5%	14.3%	39.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.094	0.037	15.4%	0.0%	53.6%	60.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.336	0.175	32.1%	10.2%	21.0%	42.6%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Cleveland
			Jose Berrios							Corey Kluber
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-210							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.278	0.307	34.9%	1.10	25.9%	37.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.264	0.279	34.4%	1.45	26.6%	43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.302	31.7%	1.10	24.4%	44.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.311	37.0%	1.06	23.2%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 17	Salary Rank:			6 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.29	3.89	22.6%	7.8%	39.0%	27.9%	20.4%	93.5	9.4%
	2018	22	3.61	3.56	25.2%	5.9%	40.7%	33.3%	20.4%	93.1	11.2%
	L14	2	3.40	2.31	28.3%	7.6%	46.9%	21.2%	21.2%	93.5	9.6%

We have two elite pitchers on the mound today in Cleveland. In 22 starts this season, Berrios has a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. Even though I talked some of you off of him in his start against Toronto a few weeks back, it’s still worth pointing out that his splits on the road haven’t been nearly as good as his splits at home. His strikeout rate takes a big dip and he averages nearly ten fewer fantasy points per start. Add in a matchup against the Indians and he becomes an easy fade in all formats, even though his price is discounted.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Berrios in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,200	Salary:			$10,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			2 of 17	Salary Rank:			2 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	22	3.33	2.79	24.8%	3.4%	44.6%	35.8%	16.2%	92.1	11.3%
	L14	2	4.76	3.18	14.3%	4.1%	41.0%	25.0%	17.5%	91.7	15.1%

Kluber had a couple of bad starts against the Yankees and Pirates, but bounced back nicely against the Tigers and Angels. On the season, he owns a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 3%. He’s always pitched well at home and he’s been dominant against the Twins, holding their current roster to a .300 wOBA with 48 strikeouts in 178 plate appearances. He’s the top pitching option of the early slate and a tough fade at this price point.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have the worst matchup of the slate. Corey Kluber has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. As mentioned above, the Twins haven’t been able to figure him out in the past and I don’t see why that’s going to change all of a sudden. Even though there are only six offenses to choose from in this early slate, we can cross the Twins off our list of potential targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.411	0.102	43.7%	11.7%	11.3%	48.7%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.341	0.229	38.4%	7.0%	17.5%	33.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.317	0.125	27.1%	15.6%	20.8%	38.3%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.290	0.223	48.0%	7.8%	40.4%	42.5%	3B	$2,300	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.328	0.169	39.1%	12.0%	13.7%	39.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.289	0.091	29.6%	9.0%	18.9%	44.3%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.379	0.208	42.1%	10.6%	20.1%	28.6%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.234	0.094	26.5%	6.3%	22.1%	47.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.359	0.178	32.4%	4.2%	25.0%	46.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.328	0.158	36.3%	9.4%	21.1%	40.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians let everyone down last night against Jake Odorizzi, but that’s going to happen in baseball. They are still one of the most talented offenses in baseball and they can still pop at any time. Today’s matchup against Jose Berrios isn’t nearly as enticing, but he has struggled a bit on the road this season. If I had to rank the offenses to target in this slate (with price factored in), the Indians would likely come in behind the Braves, Nationals, and Brewers. With that said, they certainly have plenty of upside, as each of the first five hitters in their lineup has a .385+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.412	0.286	42.7%	10.0%	16.3%	33.7%	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.401	0.192	43.7%	6.9%	8.2%	43.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.424	0.367	40.2%	17.8%	11.9%	29.7%	3B	$4,800	3B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.388	0.261	43.5%	8.6%	23.3%	38.6%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.391	0.208	40.5%	10.1%	19.1%	39.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.316	0.105	35.7%	4.7%	11.8%	45.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.335	0.125	36.0%	9.6%	18.8%	36.5%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.289	0.158	40.0%	4.1%	29.5%	32.9%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.395	0.167	41.7%	9.9%	21.0%	38.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.372	0.208	40.4%	9.1%	17.8%	37.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
San Diego								Milwaukee
			Robbie Erlin							Junior Guerra
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-160							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.298	44.1%	1.33	23.5%	63.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.340	40.4%	1.34	23.1%	37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.288	24.0%	0.81	21.3%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.322	41.9%	0.98	22.3%	42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Robbie Erlin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$4,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 17	Salary Rank:			15 of 17	Salary Rank:

	2018	3	3.09	3.34	22.0%	2.9%	51.7%	30.4%	20.7%	90.1	9.3%
	L14	1	3.04	1.04	24.1%	3.5%	57.1%	28.6%	19.1%	91.1	8.4%

Erlin has pitched well in his three major league starts this season, posting a 3.09 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate. He’s never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but it’s always hard to tell because he struggles to stay healthy. In his first start back from injury, he threw 79 pitches. If all goes well, that number should increase today, but he has a tough matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has five hitters with at least a .350 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: An argument can be made for Erlin on DraftKings ($4,600), but he’s not a core play in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 17	Salary Rank:			8 of 17	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%	91.9	10.9%
	2018	21	4.31	3.42	22.8%	9.4%	40.1%	41.1%	16.6%	93.1	9.8%
	L14	3	4.53	4.50	20.3%	9.5%	48.0%	34.6%	15.4%	93.4	11.4%

Guerra has fared well in his 21 starts this season, posting a 4.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. The big red flag in his pitching table above is that his hard contact rate (41%) is higher than his ground ball rate. While that can be a problem against talented offenses, the Padres don’t have a lot of firepower in their lineup. In fact, today’s projected lineup has a .261 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 35% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra will be chalk, but I don’t see any viable pivots. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have struggled offensively ever since I started playing DFS and that was at least six or seven years ago. While they do see a ballpark upgrade playing in Milwaukee and while they do have a decent matchup against Junior Guerra, this isn’t an offense that I want a lot of exposure to. They don’t have a single batter in their projected lineup that has an xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.294	0.115	35.1%	8.7%	16.2%	47.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.318	0.149	38.2%	9.6%	23.8%	60.4%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.296	0.180	46.0%	5.8%	29.9%	42.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.278	0.136	30.1%	5.2%	24.8%	32.7%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.290	0.179	32.9%	6.3%	27.8%	38.3%	C	$2,800	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.294	0.087	40.4%	8.5%	24.5%	44.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Franmil Reyes	RIGHT	0.274	0.190	41.7%	3.7%	37.8%	41.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.301	0.140	37.8%	4.0%	31.4%	42.6%	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Robbie Erlin	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,100	P	$4,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.261	0.131	33.6%	5.8%	35.1%	38.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Hunter Renfroe (GPP), Austin Hedges (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

The Brewers have a difficult matchup on paper, but we haven’t seen much from Robbie Erlin in the last couple of seasons. His last full season was back in 2015 and he posted mediocre numbers at the minor league level. Given the fact that I expect Erlin to garner some ownership, this could be a good leverage spot to load up on the Brewers’ righties. Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, and Ryan Braun all bat from the right side and all boast a .200+ ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.400	0.222	45.2%	13.8%	8.5%	39.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.378	0.227	47.7%	5.8%	21.5%	56.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.360	0.273	39.0%	13.2%	20.9%	32.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.288	0.124	25.9%	6.1%	18.4%	44.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.436	0.200	46.3%	11.8%	15.1%	49.3%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.228	0.034	25.4%	10.0%	19.0%	56.5%	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.371	0.154	52.2%	3.6%	14.3%	60.9%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.234	0.041	26.2%	7.5%	13.2%	69.0%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.082	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	44.4%	60.0%	P	$7,800	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.309	0.142	36.4%	8.0%	19.5%	52.0%

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Jonathan Schoop, Erik Kratz

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Texas								NY Yankees
			Ariel Jurado							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-220							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.385	45.0%	0.00	11.5%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.229	0.274	26.6%	0.75	26.8%	58.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.380	37.5%	0.93	10.5%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.312	30.1%	1.50	26.5%	40.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ariel Jurado
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$4,200	Salary:		$8,500
	Salary Rank:			16 of 18	Salary Rank:			17 of 18	Salary Rank:		11 of 18

	2018	3	5.35	4.02	10.9%	7.8%	50.0%	40.4%	5.8%	91.7	5.7%
	L14	2	5.16	2.45	11.9%	7.1%	50.0%	44.1%	5.9%	92.0	5.4%

Jurado will be making his fourth career major league start and arguably his toughest to date. We are still working with a small sample in the majors, so let’s look at his minor league stats. In 16 Double-A starts this season, he has a 4.52 FIP with a strikeout rate of 14%. Those are far from pretty, especially considering the fact that they were two levels below the big leagues. This could get ugly quickly, as the Yankees’ projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA with a .187 ISO and a 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Jurado is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$17,900
	Salary Rank:			7 of 18	Salary Rank:			5 of 18	Salary Rank:		4 of 18
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%	91.8	9.5%
	2018	21	3.58	4.05	26.6%	7.2%	44.2%	29.4%	20.7%	91.9	10.4%
	L14	1	5.58	1.50	9.1%	4.6%	38.9%	11.1%	22.2%	92.5	8.3%

Happ made his Yankees’ debut against the Royals, striking out two batters in six innings of work. He then took a quick trip to the DL with hand, foot, and mouth disease. We shouldn’t expect him to be on a pitch count tonight, as he takes on the Rangers, who are a very boom or bust offense. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with a strikeout rate of 23%. Happ offers upside at this price point and he comes into the game as one of the largest favorites of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is viable in tournaments, but there are safer options in a cash game setting.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers go from one hitter-friendly ballpark in Texas to another in New York. Their matchup against J.A. Happ is fairly difficult, as he boasts a 27% strikeout rate while holding both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. Righties have certainly had more success against Happ than lefties, but I don’t see any batter in this lineup as an elite play. Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, and Robinson Chirinos are all secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.342	0.115	38.8%	11.9%	25.9%	49.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,300
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.286	0.158	41.7%	8.9%	22.3%	44.4%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.345	0.164	34.5%	6.2%	4.6%	48.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.341	0.062	46.9%	8.7%	20.7%	45.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,200
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.332	0.202	32.6%	11.0%	10.2%	39.1%	1B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,600	SS	$8,900
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.339	0.370	43.1%	9.1%	41.3%	24.1%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,100	1B	$8,200
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.338	0.254	47.4%	14.5%	34.2%	34.2%	C	$2,900	C	$4,200	C	$8,500
8	Willie Calhoun	LEFT	0.306	0.105	31.3%	0.0%	19.0%	31.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
9	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.197	0.045	5.6%	3.8%	26.9%	53.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.314	0.164	35.8%	8.2%	22.8%	41.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees could score 15 runs tonight without blinking an eye. They are facing a pitcher that had subpar numbers at the Double-A level earlier this season. Ariel Jurado only has three major league starts under his belt, but has allowed a .380+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. A full Yankees’ stack is viable and there are a number of ways that you can build it since this lineup is littered with firepower. Individually, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, and Greg Bird are all elite options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.299	0.146	27.2%	11.6%	14.8%	51.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,100
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.321	0.202	36.0%	7.4%	31.2%	49.8%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,700
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.344	0.233	37.9%	8.8%	12.7%	34.2%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,900	SS	$8,800
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.371	0.192	38.4%	15.1%	19.4%	42.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,100
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.370	0.242	37.1%	8.3%	24.8%	31.0%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,000
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.321	0.194	43.0%	8.1%	25.3%	31.4%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,400
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.347	0.189	36.7%	4.1%	17.9%	48.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,300
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.336	0.185	37.6%	8.2%	21.6%	45.1%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.357	0.103	38.5%	9.9%	22.5%	37.0%	2B	$2,400	1B/2B	$3,600	2B	$7,600
	Team Averages		0.341	0.187	36.9%	9.1%	21.1%	41.3%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Austin Romine (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Toronto
			Rick Porcello							Ryan Borucki
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-150							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.342	40.9%	1.41	26.7%	34.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.280	22.9%	0.00	14.3%	57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.298	26.3%	0.70	19.7%	52.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.328	27.4%	0.00	17.1%	42.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:		$19,500
	Salary Rank:			5 of 18	Salary Rank:			4 of 18	Salary Rank:		3 of 18
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%	91.1	9.4%
	2018	23	3.76	3.84	22.8%	5.6%	45.1%	32.5%	20.9%	90.3	8.5%
	L14	2	2.91	3.07	26.9%	1.9%	45.7%	44.4%	19.4%	90.2	6.5%

Porcello has quietly had another solid season for the Red Sox. He’s not a pitcher that is targeted often in DFS, largely thanks to the fact that he rarely draws a good matchup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Once again, he doesn’t have either in his favor tonight, as he takes on the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Luckily, he seems to have this offense figured out. He has held Toronto’s current roster to a .308 wOBA with 52 strikeouts in 252 plate appearance.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not sure I can roll the dice with Porcello here, but an argument can be made for him in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ryan Borucki
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:		$11,000
	Salary Rank:			14 of 18	Salary Rank:			12 of 18	Salary Rank:		7 of 18

	2018	7	4.50	2.30	16.5%	6.0%	46.0%	26.2%	15.6%	91.8	7.8%
	L14	2	4.60	1.29	13.0%	1.9%	45.5%	10.9%	26.1%	91.7	9.4%

Borucki may have a 2.30 ERA, but regression is right around the corner waiting for him. He’s unlikely to sustain this level of success moving forward, as he owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He does have a decent ground ball rate and he has managed to limit hard contact, but we are still dealing with a small sample size here. He draws a difficult matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .355 with a 34% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Borucki should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki and are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Borucki may have a low ERA this season, but his SIERA suggests some regression moving forward. Not only that, but his numbers in the minors this year were mediocre at best. There are four batters in particular that are on my radar here and they make an excellent four-man stack. Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts all bat from the right side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.489	0.395	43.8%	16.2%	14.3%	35.6%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,900	RF	$11,400
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.266	0.184	22.5%	7.4%	25.9%	42.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,400
3	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.488	0.294	36.4%	7.9%	17.1%	38.2%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,300
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.404	0.188	49.2%	8.6%	29.5%	43.1%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,500
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.376	0.147	38.6%	15.7%	20.2%	36.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,300
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.300	0.082	25.3%	5.8%	14.4%	51.2%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,400
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.265	0.119	28.8%	4.7%	26.4%	49.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,600
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.318	0.109	32.4%	13.0%	24.1%	41.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.286	0.066	31.3%	4.8%	33.3%	62.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.355	0.176	34.3%	9.3%	22.8%	44.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (GPP), Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t had the best results against Rick Porcello in the past. As mentioned above, their current roster has a collective wOBA of only .308 in over 350 plate appearances. From a splits perspective, Porcello is very tough on right-handed hitters — .298 xwOBA allowed on a 53% ground ball rate. The only hitter that is really on my radar here is Justin Smoak. Not only does he bat from the left side, but he is 10-for-37 with five home runs and two doubles against Porcello in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.344	0.190	37.1%	12.0%	27.5%	33.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,400
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.294	0.114	26.8%	6.0%	21.9%	56.7%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.413	0.267	38.2%	16.0%	25.6%	31.8%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,200
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.430	0.202	45.4%	11.6%	20.9%	42.1%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,400
5	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.330	0.141	29.8%	6.8%	15.5%	43.0%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
6	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.368	0.216	40.0%	6.4%	28.0%	36.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,400
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.322	0.165	30.2%	16.0%	23.5%	49.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.358	0.197	34.3%	3.4%	10.6%	43.3%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.329	0.169	34.2%	3.8%	20.4%	37.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,600
	Team Averages		0.354	0.185	35.1%	9.1%	21.5%	41.6%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (Cash), Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 9th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

San Diego at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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