MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-22 01:57:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

LA Dodgers at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Washington
			Julio Urias					Stephen Strasburg
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -200					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.289	2	39.5%	13.2%	SP vs. Left	0.250	12	31.1%	7.7%
SP vs. Right	0.363	2	23.6%	9.8%	SP vs. Right	0.287	13	29.3%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Urias
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		12.5
					Pitcher Rating:		71.5	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	89.7	4.88	5.65	23.4%	14.1%	11.2%	30.8%	41.0%	37.5%
2016	8	85.8	3.90	4.95	27.3%	10.6%	10.4%	37.4%	35.4%	35.0%

Urias is going to be a big name in DFS for many years to come. He is still only 19 years old and he already has an elite strikeout rate in the majors. In his first eight career starts, he has a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.3%. His command is a bit of an issue, but everything else checks out. There are two reasons to avoid him today against the Nationals. The first, and most important, is that the Nationals are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against left-handed pitching. The second is that Stephen Strasburg is pitching opposite him and run support could be limited.

Stephen Strasburg
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$13,300
					FPPG:		48.1	FPPG:		25.2
					Pitcher Rating:		95.5	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	107.3	4.20	0.83	25.6%	11.5%	9.3%	42.9%	36.7%	18.4%
2016	17	104.1	3.13	2.51	30.8%	7.4%	11.1%	43.7%	35.9%	24.4%
2015	23	88.8	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Strasburg is the top pitching option to take the mound on Thursday, but he is playing in one of the two early games, so you can only roster him in the all-day slate. If you do join some of the early contests, it makes sense to build your lineup around Strasburg. He has been dominant this season, posting a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate above 30%. The Dodgers used to be a potent offense against right-handed pitching, but they are ranked 15th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% this season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have the 18th highest team total on the schedule. Unfortunately, there are only 18 teams in action, so in other words – they have the lowest run projection. They draw a difficult matchup against Stephen Strasburg and they are facing him in a pitcher friendly ballpark. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA in the last two seasons.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.27 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.17 (18 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are one of the top offenses in baseball when they are facing a left-handed pitching. They are ranked eighth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against southpaws. Their matchup against Julio Urias is more of the boom or bust variety, as he has a ton of talent but is still inexperienced at the major league level. The sample size is small, but Urias has allowed a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.208 (1 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.67 (11 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.33 (10 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jayson Werth

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Baltimore					NY Yankees
			Chris Tillman					CC Sabathia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -105					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.316	11	18.5%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.267	4	26.4%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.325	23	17.4%	7.5%	SP vs. Right	0.346	31	16.8%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		34.4	FPPG:		17.4
					Pitcher Rating:		40.3	Pitcher Rank:		16
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	100.7	5.81	4.29	12.5%	9.9%	6.6%	30.4%	43.5%	29.9%
2016	20	98.9	4.54	3.29	20.6%	9.4%	9.1%	39.5%	39.2%	30.8%
2015	31	94.9	4.69	4.99	16.2%	8.6%	7.1%	43.5%	35.4%	26.9%

Tillman started the season in solid form, but has struggled over the last month of play. In his last six starts, he has a 5.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.5%. The Yankees haven’t been great offensively this season, but they seem to be hitting their stride in this series. New York will be going for the sweep today, which would bring them within 4.5 games of the Orioles. In what is expected to be a high scoring game, Tillman is an easy fade on the road.

CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		27.5	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		53.6	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	94.2	5.03	7.94	13.0%	7.3%	11.7%	49.5%	34.0%	26.9%
2016	16	95.1	4.69	3.94	18.0%	9.0%	9.9%	47.4%	35.1%	24.5%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

For a while there, people were clamoring that Sabathia was a new pitcher this year. All I saw was a SIERA that was a lot higher than his ERA, as well as an unsustainable left on-base percentage. We have seen regression hit hard over the last month, as he has a 7.94 ERA during that stretch. The Orioles decided to give a few players the night off last night, but they should have their usual starters back for today’s game. Sabathia is an easy fade against this powerful offense.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t have the highest team wOBA against lefties, but they do have the ninth highest team ISO. The Orioles hit a ton of home runs and CC Sabathia has allowed 31 long balls to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. With the ninth highest team total on the board, the Orioles are in play for both cash games and tournaments.

• Orioles Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.00 (5 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.47 (9 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Joey Rickard

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are small favorites today, but the game is basically set as a pick ‘em. Both offenses should be able to put some runs on the board. The Yankees draw a favorable matchup Chris Tillman, who has allowed a .316 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Tillman also comes into the game in bad form, which bodes well for New York.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (20 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.16 (21 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.53 (8 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Miami					Philadelphia
			Tom Koehler					Jerad Eickhoff
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -108					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.342	19	18.1%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.335	11	17.2%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.317	11	16.5%	9.5%	SP vs. Right	0.270	8	25.6%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		23.8	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		44.7	Pitcher Rank:		14
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	87.3	5.45	5.79	14.9%	10.5%	8.0%	30.5%	36.8%	31.6%
2016	19	92.9	5.15	4.68	17.6%	11.6%	8.7%	40.8%	33.7%	26.1%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler doesn’t have a single blue or green box in his pitching table above. That means that every one of his statistics is either average or subpar. That’s not exactly what we are looking for in DFS. We want a pitcher that can dominate an opposing lineup, while racking up strikeouts in the process. Koehler just doesn’t fit the mold, so even though he gets to face the Phillies, he is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Jerad Eickhoff
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		29.7	FPPG:		15.3
					Pitcher Rating:		73.6	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	100.3	4.42	4.54	19.0%	7.0%	10.3%	39.6%	36.0%	30.1%
2016	19	96.7	4.16	3.76	20.1%	6.2%	9.7%	43.0%	35.5%	30.3%
2015	8	92.4	3.56	2.65	24.1%	6.4%	10.4%	37.9%	40.0%	36.2%

Of the two pitchers in this game, I much prefer the one at home. The Vegas line may be close, but Eickhoff has more strikeout upside than Tom Koehler. In 19 starts this season, Eickhoff has a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.1%. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Marlins, who were dominated by Jeremy Hellickson last night. On the season, Miami is ranked 11th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. I wouldn’t call Eickhoff a safe play, but he is a viable option in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board. While they have a high contact rate as a team, they lack some serious power against right-handed pitching (.135 ISO). If you are targeting any hitters from the Marlins, give an edge to the ones that can hit from the left side. Over the last two seasons, Jerad Eickhoff has allowed a .335 wOBA to lefties.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.20 (14 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Philadelphia

The Phillies were able to get to Wei-Yin Chen early last night and they’ll try to do the same again tonight. Tom Koehler is always a pitcher that I like to pick on, even when bad offenses like the Phillies are facing him. Over the last two seasons, Koehler has allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .317 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up 30 home runs during that stretch.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (26 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.60 (29 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.30 (12 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
			Matt Garza					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -175					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.366	13	13.6%	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.288	6	24.4%	9.5%
SP vs. Right	0.357	13	16.6%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.309	23	24.2%	11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		17.2	FPPG:		6.5
					Pitcher Rating:		35.6	Pitcher Rank:		17
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	84.4	5.30	6.26	11.0%	7.9%	5.0%	52.1%	33.3%	41.6%
2016	6	84.8	5.01	5.74	12.8%	7.4%	5.5%	51.4%	32.4%	38.8%
2015	25	95.7	4.68	5.63	15.6%	8.6%	7.8%	45.0%	32.9%	33.0%

Garza is the exact opposite of the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. He has a high SIERA, a high walk rate, a high hard contact rate, and a low strikeout rate. It’s going to be tough for him to pitch well at any time without being able to strike a few batters out along the way. He grades out as the second worst pitching option in the slate, as he is a large underdog on the road against the Pirates.

Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		23.4	FPPG:		10.9
					Pitcher Rating:		69.7	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	93.2	5.39	5.33	16.1%	13.6%	10.5%	53.1%	28.4%	29.6%
2016	18	96.3	4.96	5.11	20.4%	13.6%	10.6%	51.6%	30.5%	34.4%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Liriano has yet to show any signs of life this season. In 18 starts, he has a 4.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.4% and a walk rate of 13.6%. His numbers over the last month are even worse. He may be a heavy favorite today against the Brewers, but that has more to do with the opposing pitcher than anything else. Liriano’s numbers almost mirror those of Jeff Locke. Do you want to spend $7,900 on FD or $6,800 on DK on Jeff Locke? I didn’t think so.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers were a sneaky offense to target yesterday and they are a sneaky offense to target again tonight. Francisco Liriano has walked nearly as many batters as he has struck out over the last month of play. He has also allowed a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Milwaukee doesn’t have the most potent offense in baseball, but they shouldn’t have the fourth lowest team total in this slate.

• Brewers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (17 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.147 (24 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 23.5% (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.94 (26 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.82 (15 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Pittsburgh

The Pirates may not have the highest implied total on the board, but make no mistake about it, they do have one of the most favorable matchups. Matt Garza has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball and he has been hit hard over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has allowed a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (25 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.63 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.68 (7 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}*GREEN*%

Minnesota at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota					Boston
			Tyler Duffey					Steven Wright
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -220					10.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.298	5	23.6%	5.7%	SP vs. Left	0.272	7	17.5%	8.9%
SP vs. Right	0.356	13	16.4%	7.6%	SP vs. Right	0.305	12	19.4%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Duffey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		25.2	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		46.5	Pitcher Rank:		13
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	91.4	4.07	4.60	17.4%	5.8%	8.3%	55.6%	27.8%	33.0%
2016	15	95.9	4.04	5.23	18.6%	5.6%	8.0%	49.8%	28.0%	31.9%
2015	10	90.8	3.83	3.10	21.9%	8.3%	9.8%	49.7%	30.9%	26.6%

Duffey had an impressive season a year ago, but 2016 hasn’t been as kind. In 15 starts, he has a 5.23 SIERA (4.04 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 18.6%. He is giving up more hard contact this season and his swinging strike rate is down considerably. His struggles should continue tonight against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Not only are the Red Sox the best offense in baseball, but they have some insane splits at home.

Steven Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		37.5	FPPG:		19.6
					Pitcher Rating:		71.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	98.0	4.44	4.40	17.8%	7.4%	9.6%	52.1%	34.4%	30.6%
2016	18	105.9	4.46	2.78	19.6%	8.8%	10.9%	47.0%	33.6%	27.2%
2015	9	130.9	4.60	4.09	16.8%	8.7%	9.3%	43.2%	43.2%	33.9%

I had to give Wright a manual bump tonight when it came to his pitcher rating. His numbers don’t jump off the page at us, but he has a strikeout rate close to 20%, he has the best offense in baseball behind him, and he can throw 115-120 pitches in any outing. His pitch count has come down over the last month, but if he’s pitching well, the Red Sox will leave him out there. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 18th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a boom or bust matchup against the knuckleballer, Steven Wright. While his numbers aren’t great overall, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA in the last two seasons. The main reason to look at the Twins tonight is the ballpark boost that they get playing in Fenway Park. We saw last night with the Giants that even with a difficult matchup, runs can still be scored in Fenway.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.43 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.31 (11 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Boston

The Red Sox made quick work of Matt Cain last night at home. While Tyler Duffey is a better pitcher than Cain at this point in their respective careers, this is still a great spot to target the Red Sox. They have the second highest team total on the board and they are playing in Fenway, where they have been hanging crooked numbers on the board all season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but give a small edge to the right-handed bats (.353 wOBA allowed by Duffey).

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.57 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.69 (2 of 18)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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