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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-05 19:02:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Pablo Lopez washingtonmlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.088 0.197 28.6% 79.6 36.4% 66.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.341 27.7% 87.8 20.2% 43.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.545 0.480 58.3% 87.4 7.1% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.249 0.299 32.1% 86.8 20.6% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Pablo Lopez
pablo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 10 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 3.55 3.00 20.0% 4.0% 55.6% 47.4% 21.1%
L14 1 3.55 3.00 20.0% 4.0% 55.6% 47.4% 21.1%

Lopez is a 22-year old righty that is making his second career major league start. In four Triple-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 5.39 FIP with an uninspiring strikeout rate of 19%. I generally take a wait and see approach in these situations unless the pitcher in question is a top prospect or getting respect from the betting markets. That’s not the case tonight with Lopez, as he’s a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in both cash games and tournaments.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 10 3.79 2.63 20.3% 4.3% 44.1% 29.5% 21.6%
L14 1 5.25 5.79 17.4% 8.7% 17.6% 23.5% 35.3%

You know pitching is thin when Hellickson is one of the best SP2 options of the slate. It’s nothing personal, we just typically have more choices at our disposal. While he didn’t look great in his first start back from a hamstring injury, he threw 98 pitches. He’s had a nice season as a whole, posting a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 4%. The real reason to target Hellickson isn’t his form, it’s his matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .295 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Fire up Hellickson in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have a few decent hitters at the top of their lineup, but have struggled offensively as a whole. They come into tonight’s game as large underdogs with one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate. Jeremy Hellickson has been hittable in the past, but has held lefties to a 28% hard contact rate and righties to a .299 xwOBA this season. Outside of a J.T. Realmuto (.393 xwOBA against righties) or a Justin Bour (.390 xwOBA against righties) one-off in tournaments, this isn’t an offense that we should be targeting.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.346 88.4 0.167 36.5% 5.4% 21.7% 40.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.348 89.7 0.100 37.2% 8.1% 19.6% 52.1% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.393 91.1 0.270 44.4% 6.3% 17.1% 43.7% C $3,600 C $4,700 C $9,100
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.390 90.3 0.234 42.5% 17.1% 24.1% 39.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.313 87.5 0.116 36.2% 5.8% 18.7% 49.5% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.279 89.2 0.041 27.1% 5.1% 19.2% 44.1% 3B $2,000 3B $2,800 3B $5,400
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.325 88.5 0.211 37.8% 4.9% 22.5% 43.1% SS $2,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 JB Shuck LEFT 0.239 84.0 0.037 28.1% 7.6% 16.1% 53.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,800
9 Pablo Lopez RIGHT 0.022 63.8 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $7,000 P $13,700
Team Averages 0.295 85.8 0.131 32.2% 6.7% 23.2% 51.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (GPP), Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals’ offense has yet to show their true potential and it’s only a matter of time before they start firing on all cylinders. Perhaps a matchup against a rookie pitcher that has struggled in the minors will help. We don’t know much about Pablo Lopez, but he had a below-average strikeout rate and a below-average ground ball rate at the Triple-A level earlier this season. With one of the highest implied run totals on the board, a full Nationals’ stack is in play for tournaments. Individually, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy are viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.381 87.6 0.125 44.6% 6.7% 16.9% 46.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.332 89.0 0.143 33.7% 9.3% 21.0% 53.4% SS $3,800 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,300
3 Juan Soto LEFT 0.381 89.5 0.202 36.1% 17.5% 19.3% 47.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.398 91.4 0.236 37.4% 9.3% 14.7% 34.4% 3B $4,200 3B $4,800 3B $8,700
5 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.402 91.2 0.296 43.3% 18.3% 24.0% 36.4% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
6 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.351 87.9 0.078 17.4% 5.6% 9.3% 30.4% 1B $2,900 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
7 Matt Adams LEFT 0.409 90.3 0.331 45.8% 10.5% 21.7% 32.3% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.334 86.3 0.061 24.0% 13.2% 21.1% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.034 69.1 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,300 P $7,700 P $15,400
Team Averages 0.336 86.9 0.164 31.4% 10.0% 22.0% 46.0%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper (GPP), Daniel Murphy (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Daniel Murphy (Cash), Matt Adams

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Detroit
texasmlb Yovani Gallardo detroitmlb Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-112 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.379 31.3% 85.1 17.0% 40.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.257 41.1% 84.9 24.7% 33.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.392 0.339 34.3% 90.4 17.4% 34.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.317 33.7% 86.8 19.4% 29.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 22 5.27 5.72 16.3% 10.4% 44.1% 32.9% 19.4%
2018 3 5.03 9.00 17.2% 10.8% 37.3% 32.8% 16.4%
L14 2 4.17 4.97 20.0% 6.0% 40.5% 32.4% 16.2%

Gallardo has one of the best matchups of the slate, but his form has been so bad that I am automatically crossing him off my list of potential targets. In his three starts this season, he has a 5.03 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. While he’s facing a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense, he’s pitching on the road in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. I know pitching is weak tonight and I know the Tigers strikeout at a high rate against righties, but I can’t click the plus next to Gallardo’s name.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gallardo in both cash games and tournaments.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 6 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0%
2018 16 4.64 4.18 20.6% 9.5% 30.4% 35.3% 21.0%
L14 2 3.80 9.00 28.6% 9.5% 23.1% 34.6% 26.9%

Boyd has had a few nice outings this season, but his numbers as a whole are unappealing. In 16 starts, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. His hard contact rate is 5% higher than his ground ball rate, which always makes me nervous when it’s not accompanied by a high strikeout rate. His fantasy appeal tonight hinges on what this Rangers’ lineup looks like. If Adrian Beltre is able to play, he’s a big boost for their offense when facing a southpaw. If Beltre is out again, Boyd can be considered as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Boyd over Gallardo, but his fantasy appeal hinges on what the Rangers’ lineup looks like.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Every time I see the splits for Matt Boyd, I get confused. He has a mediocre strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Even with all of that, he’s managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA. There are a handful of offenses that I would target before the Rangers tonight, but Shin-Soo Choo, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre, and Ryan Rua have all hit left-handed pitching well this season and are worth a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.346 87.2 0.104 39.1% 11.6% 24.1% 43.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.307 87.9 0.036 34.6% 9.7% 6.5% 53.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.324 90.3 0.216 37.7% 4.3% 29.1% 54.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
4 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.345 87.5 0.260 30.4% 10.3% 9.2% 33.3% 2B $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,500
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.226 78.9 0.081 40.8% 5.6% 21.1% 43.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
6 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.365 92.0 0.279 43.2% 10.4% 12.5% 51.4% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,900
7 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.294 83.8 0.123 25.9% 13.3% 9.3% 43.1% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,400
8 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.248 82.7 0.190 27.6% 4.5% 29.5% 41.4% 1B $2,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,500
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.277 79.6 0.114 34.4% 13.3% 12.0% 56.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.304 85.5 0.156 34.9% 9.2% 17.0% 46.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre (if active), Ryan Rua

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, but have one of the best matchups on paper. Yovani Gallardo has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a low ground ball rate. He has allowed a .379 xwOBA to lefties and a .339 xwOBA to righties this season, which brings batters from both sides of the plate into the mix. A full stack doesn’t have a ton of appeal, but Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, and John Hicks are all viable here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.245 88.0 0.071 21.4% 6.5% 25.8% 40.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.380 90.0 0.202 48.5% 5.4% 22.9% 32.3% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 IF/OF $9,600
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.306 87.5 0.197 34.7% 12.2% 23.9% 38.1% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.351 88.5 0.075 40.6% 7.7% 10.0% 40.6% C $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,900
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.331 89.0 0.217 36.3% 9.0% 32.2% 41.2% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,600 1B $7,700
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.288 86.3 0.156 41.8% 4.7% 30.2% 42.1% C $2,600 1B/C $3,300 1B $6,700
7 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.200 79.9 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 LF $5,600
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.276 84.5 0.093 24.9% 3.6% 11.6% 45.6% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.297 87.3 0.167 29.8% 4.2% 28.0% 40.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.297 86.8 0.131 30.9% 5.9% 22.7% 44.0%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Atlanta Milwaukee
atlantamlb Max Fried milwaukeemlb Jhoulys Chacin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.292 40.0% 95.1 44.0% 30.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.359 38.5% 88.0 13.5% 43.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.335 35.7% 92.3 27.1% 63.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.311 38.5% 87.0 23.6% 36.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Fried
max-fried-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.13 3.81 18.2% 9.9% 65.1% 28.9% 20.5%
2018 2 3.46 2.55 32.9% 13.7% 54.1% 36.8% 2.6%
L14 1 2.14 0.00 44.0% 12.0% 72.7% 18.2% 0.0%

Fried is a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward. He is the team’s ninth-ranked prospect and it’s easy to see why with a quick glance at his numbers. In nine Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.24 FIP with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s fared well in his first six major league starts, although he’ll have to cut down on his walks moving forward. While I like the talent, he draws a difficult matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .361 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll wait for a better matchup for Fried.

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 11 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2%
2018 18 4.87 3.71 18.4% 10.4% 40.4% 38.5% 17.2%
L14 2 5.46 8.68 20.8% 16.7% 35.7% 43.3% 13.3%

Chacin got off to a nice start this, but has cooled off ever since. Overall, he owns a 4.87 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 39%. Like many below-average righties, Chacin needs to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup to warrant consideration as a play in DFS. The Braves are projected to have six lefties in their lineup tonight. Given his form, matchup, and the ballpark, I see more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chacin in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are a sneaky stack tonight in Milwaukee. I’m a little surprised at their low implied run total given the fact that they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and facing a pitcher that has struggled against left-handed hitters — Chacin has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate this season. Ozzie Albies (.230 ISO), Freddie Freeman (.415 xwOBA), and Nick Markakis (.412 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all have good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.279 82.6 0.125 24.3% 7.4% 11.9% 46.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,600
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.326 85.7 0.230 35.2% 5.0% 17.8% 36.0% 2B $4,300 2B $5,500 2B $10,000
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.415 90.3 0.194 46.0% 14.5% 16.9% 35.6% 1B $4,400 1B $5,300 1B $9,900
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.412 91.5 0.165 41.4% 11.2% 7.6% 42.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 RF $8,900
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.353 90.6 0.084 48.3% 8.4% 26.3% 39.7% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,500
6 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.364 92.5 0.232 44.1% 5.7% 30.2% 44.1% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 LF $8,700
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.341 90.0 0.172 41.5% 16.0% 17.8% 50.0% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,700 3B $7,500
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.288 87.6 0.151 31.9% 6.1% 23.9% 43.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
9 Max Fried LEFT 0.199 89.4 0.000 66.7% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% P $5,900 P $7,500 P $14,700
Team Averages 0.331 88.9 0.150 42.2% 8.3% 21.4% 45.0%

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies (GPP), Freddie Freeman (GPP), Nick Markakis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies (Cash), Freddie Freeman (Cash), Nick Markakis (Cash), Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a boom or bust matchup against Max Fried, who is a talented young lefty that is making his third major league start of the season. While he has fared well at every level that he’s pitched at, he’s still a bit of a wildcard. Milwaukee is playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they have plenty of right-handed power in their lineup. Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, and Jonathan Villar are all elite tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.346 86.3 0.278 38.5% 10.0% 25.0% 30.8% 1B $4,100 1B/OF $5,000 1B $9,700
2 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.431 94.7 0.231 46.7% 15.9% 12.7% 48.9% OF $3,200 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,400
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.364 92.3 0.127 42.1% 6.3% 20.0% 54.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
4 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.391 93.0 0.347 50.0% 12.3% 22.8% 30.6% 1B $3,900 1B $5,100 1B $9,800
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.298 88.5 0.157 43.9% 0.0% 21.2% 31.7% 3B $2,000 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.327 90.2 0.150 34.5% 2.4% 26.8% 39.3% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 2B $7,500
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.340 90.4 0.250 38.7% 6.4% 27.7% 58.1% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,500
8 Erik Kratz RIGHT 0.370 90.4 0.300 37.5% 0.0% 20.0% 50.0% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,500
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.386 81.8 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% P $7,300 P $7,100 P $13,600
Team Averages 0.361 89.7 0.204 41.3% 5.9% 19.6% 46.5%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (if batting leadoff), Ryan Braun (GPP), Jesus Aguilar (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun (GPP), Jesus Aguilar (GPP), Hernan Perez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Baltimore Minnesota
baltimoremlb Andrew Cashner minnesotamlb Aaron Slegers
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-127 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.357 28.2% 89.3 23.5% 36.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.189 0.224 45.5% 82.3 15.4% 54.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.379 0.384 31.6% 88.3 13.2% 43.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.537 0.534 62.5% 92.5 10.0% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5%
2018 16 4.86 4.48 18.2% 10.2% 40.7% 30.1% 18.6%
L14 2 5.57 3.00 14.0% 12.0% 48.6% 27.0% 29.7%

I always love seeing Cashner on the schedule because he simplifies my decision-making. I get to take one pitcher out of my player pool and I add one offense to my list of stacks. His biggest weapon last season was his ground ball rate against right-handed hitters, but that is down to 44% this season (right around league average). The rest of his statistics make him a great pitcher to stack against — 4.86 SIERA, 18% strikeout rate, and a 10% walk rate.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner is an easy fade in all formats.

Aaron Slegers
aaron-slegers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 13 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.41 6.46 14.3% 9.5% 46.8% 45.8% 14.6%
2018 0 4.44 3.38 13.0% 4.4% 47.4% 52.6% 26.3%

Slegers is making his first major league start of the season and the fourth of his career. In 14 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.69 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The fact that he’s favored tonight gives me even more confidence in the Twins’ stack against Andrew Cashner. Even though the Orioles are an intriguing matchup for most right-handed pitchers, I’ll take a wait and see approach with Slegers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Slegers in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have really struggled offensively this season, especially on the road. While I don’t trust their offense as far as I can throw them, their matchup against Aaron Slegers is intriguing. The biggest weakness for the Orioles this season has been the strikeout, but that should be negated in this matchup. Slegers struggled at the Triple-A level this season and the Orioles get to face him in a somewhat hitter-friendly ballpark. Tim Beckham (if batting leadoff), Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo are all elite tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.247 85.6 0.034 23.4% 5.3% 26.6% 52.4% 3B $2,300 3B $3,200 SS $6,500
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 89.1 0.185 32.5% 3.2% 19.2% 40.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.397 92.7 0.265 37.0% 11.3% 16.2% 35.9% SS $4,500 SS $5,300 3B $9,900
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 93.1 0.261 42.0% 6.3% 23.6% 38.0% OF $3,300 1B/OF $4,100 DH $8,200
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.275 86.7 0.076 32.1% 7.5% 35.8% 43.6% 1B $2,300 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,500
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.229 84.2 0.177 23.4% 2.6% 24.2% 49.3% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.368 90.9 0.158 33.1% 9.3% 25.1% 50.7% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.309 87.2 0.194 31.0% 9.8% 17.1% 41.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 RF $5,500
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.243 84.2 0.180 28.6% 1.6% 31.7% 36.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.309 88.2 0.170 31.5% 6.3% 24.4% 43.1%

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham (if batting leadoff), Adam Jones (GPP), Manny Machado (GPP), Mark Trumbo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones (Cash), Manny Machado (Cash), Mark Trumbo (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins have hit right-handed pitching well and have a lineup loaded with left-handed power that should be able to take advantage of the splits of Andrew Cashner. On the season, he has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .384 xwOBA to righties. With Jorge Polanco back in the mix, this is a very deep lineup, so we can make a few different Twins’ stacks in tournaments. Jake Cave, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, and Jorge Polanco all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.387 90.2 0.085 39.6% 11.9% 11.9% 51.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.355 89.7 0.279 38.3% 7.1% 16.3% 28.6% OF $3,700 OF $5,100 LF $9,700
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.375 87.3 0.313 40.4% 6.6% 23.5% 23.7% 3B $3,300 3B/SS $4,400 3B $8,000
4 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.312 87.5 0.194 39.0% 9.7% 19.1% 39.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.379 89.8 0.185 40.0% 11.2% 18.9% 28.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,700
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.438 84.4 0.167 25.0% 14.3% 28.6% 0.0% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,000 SS $5,800
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.308 89.6 0.114 37.5% 11.5% 14.5% 37.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,700
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.367 92.2 0.184 39.3% 2.6% 25.6% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.236 77.5 0.098 23.1% 7.1% 18.6% 48.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.351 87.6 0.180 35.8% 9.1% 19.7% 34.2%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Jake Cave

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Houston
whitesoxmlb Carlos Rodon houstonmlb Justin Verlander
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-300 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.370 50.0% 92.1 20.0% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.237 0.216 23.7% 85.5 33.3% 32.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.316 26.8% 86.7 16.5% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.272 30.8% 89.8 29.5% 27.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon
carlos-rodon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.21 4.15 25.6% 10.4% 44.1% 32.1% 12.8%
2018 5 4.83 4.55 17.3% 7.1% 35.5% 32.3% 14.0%
L14 2 5.53 4.73 11.1% 3.7% 37.0% 30.4% 13.0%

Rodon has a lot of talent, but we haven’t really seen it in his first five starts of the season. He currently owns a 4.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that historically has struggled with right-handed power, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Astros. He comes into the game as a massive underdog and offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: The White Sox are a full fade tonight.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $25,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.05 3.36 25.8% 8.5% 33.5% 34.5% 17.5%
2018 18 3.02 2.12 31.2% 5.2% 29.3% 27.9% 22.0%
L14 2 3.51 6.94 25.5% 5.5% 32.4% 40.5% 24.3%

Verlander has looked more human-like in his last two starts, but still owns a 3.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% this season. He’s the clear ace of the slate. He’s by far the most talented and he draws the best matchup on the board, which is a lethal combination. He’s a -300 favorite against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is the top play on the board and an elite option in all formats. Consider hitting the lock button.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

As mentioned above, the White Sox are a full fade tonight. I have no interest in Carlos Rodon and will be avoiding their offense against Justin Verlander. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.365 93.2 0.219 45.0% 8.6% 35.2% 32.4% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.327 85.7 0.185 28.2% 4.8% 16.0% 47.1% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.364 91.2 0.181 34.6% 6.2% 17.5% 43.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.392 93.2 0.224 42.1% 1.9% 22.3% 44.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,500
5 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.287 86.1 0.082 30.2% 3.4% 21.4% 56.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.354 89.1 0.213 38.2% 13.3% 37.1% 39.2% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,300
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.291 85.7 0.167 28.2% 7.2% 26.1% 48.1% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.306 85.6 0.106 23.3% 8.8% 19.2% 41.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,600
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.259 84.8 0.081 26.0% 5.2% 25.9% 39.7% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.327 88.3 0.162 32.9% 6.6% 24.5% 43.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros may not have the best matchup on the board, but they are still a viable stack. Each of the first five batters in their projected lineup has a .325+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season — George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, and Evan Gattis. The only downside with the Astros is that they are quite a bit more expensive than some of the other stacks I like tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.382 88.3 0.250 34.2% 10.8% 22.5% 50.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 RF $8,700
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.406 89.5 0.283 41.4% 13.7% 11.1% 24.1% 3B $4,400 3B $5,500 3B $10,100
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.409 90.0 0.081 43.2% 7.3% 11.0% 33.3% 2B $4,200 2B $5,200 2B $9,500
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.334 89.7 0.125 36.4% 5.4% 11.8% 36.4% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.328 87.9 0.258 27.2% 5.7% 16.2% 38.3% C $3,400 C $4,100 C $8,100
6 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.315 84.9 0.230 35.4% 4.7% 20.3% 34.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.279 89.5 0.083 40.5% 4.9% 22.5% 43.2% SS $2,300 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
8 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.365 92.2 0.238 47.7% 4.4% 27.9% 50.0% C $2,200 C $3,600 C $7,400
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.285 85.3 0.149 30.0% 3.8% 43.0% 23.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,900
Team Averages 0.345 88.6 0.189 37.3% 6.7% 20.7% 37.0%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis (DK)

Secondary Plays – Evan Gattis (FD), Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious