MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-07 01:27:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Francisco at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

UPDATE: Johnny Cueto has been scratched from today’s start.

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Detroit
			Johnny Cueto							Anibal Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-110							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.332	33.2%	5.6%	22.4%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.307	29.3%	9.3%	20.9%	39.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.291	26.7%	6.0%	21.7%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.385	0.342	36.8%	6.3%	19.6%	37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Johnny Cueto
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,100
	Salary Rank:		6 of 24	Salary Rank:		6 of 24	Salary Rank:		6 of 24
	2016	32	3.59	2.79	22.5%	5.1%	50.2%	27.2%	19.4%
	2017	17	4.28	4.26	21.2%	7.1%	40.3%	35.4%	16.2%

UPDATE: Johnny Cueto has been scratched from today’s start.

We have an awkward 12 game slate on tap on Thursday. There are four early games, one game that starts at 6:05 ET, and then seven late games. We kick it off with the Giants and Tigers, who are squaring off in Detroit. Cueto is still an above-average pitcher at this stage of his career, but he no longer has an elite strikeout rate. While the Tigers hit right-handed pitching well, they also have a right-handed heavy lineup. In the last two seasons, Cueto has held righties to a .291 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: The pitching options in this early slate are scarce, which makes Cueto playable in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		18 of 24	Salary Rank:		16 of 24	Salary Rank:		15 of 24
	2016	26	4.39	5.87	20.2%	7.9%	39.6%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	3	4.37	6.34	20.6%	7.4%	34.2%	37.9%	17.7%

I’m not buying the Sanchez hype. Sure, he has a strikeout rate of 20%, but that comes with a high SIERA, a high fly ball rate, and a high hard contact rate. He is still a pitcher capable of getting blown up with each and every start, so I would steer clear of him in a cash game setting. He doesn’t carry a ton of tournament appeal either, as he is facing a Giants’ offense that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is a deep GPP flier if you are making multiple lineups.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are still dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but when healthy, they are better than the numbers suggest. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Anibal Sanchez and they get to utilize the DH in this series. Over the last two seasons, Sanchez has been a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .342 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This brings Hunter Pence and Buster Posey into play. I wouldn’t rule out the lefties either, as Denard Span and Brandon Belt both hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.344	0.340	0.154	26.3%	8.2%	11.8%	46.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.317	0.331	0.157	26.5%	9.4%	8.1%	44.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.327	0.314	0.109	28.6%	8.4%	21.5%	59.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.341	0.367	0.138	34.3%	9.0%	11.2%	47.7%	C	$3,300	1B/C	$4,000	C	$7,800
5	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.368	0.395	0.212	38.8%	16.6%	22.1%	26.2%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.305	0.325	0.160	34.7%	8.5%	19.0%	44.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
7	Jae-gyun Hwang	RIGHT	0.321	0.214	0.200	33.3%	16.7%	33.3%	33.3%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,200
8	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.366	0.307	0.164	18.8%	6.0%	19.4%	64.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,400	RF	$4,800
9	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.281	0.263	0.100	28.0%	6.3%	24.3%	51.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers may be slight favorites here, but a matchup against Johnny Cueto isn’t what I would call ideal. He has an above-average strikeout rate and over the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .291 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. He is significantly worse against lefties, which brings Alex Avila into the mix as an elite play in all formats. As for the rest of the Tigers’ lineup, they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.340	0.324	0.175	34.8%	7.3%	15.3%	33.3%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
2	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.385	0.405	0.233	49.4%	17.5%	34.0%	38.9%	C	$2,900	1B/C	$4,000	C	$7,600
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.339	0.348	0.231	39.8%	9.1%	28.6%	37.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.382	0.448	0.242	42.3%	10.1%	17.0%	41.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.375	0.397	0.243	42.2%	10.7%	25.9%	43.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.348	0.377	0.187	40.6%	7.0%	24.9%	35.7%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
7	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.333	0.383	0.169	41.4%	8.6%	14.4%	38.1%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
8	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.230	0.242	0.090	35.1%	4.2%	36.3%	41.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.270	0.256	0.072	19.4%	4.7%	12.8%	55.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600

Elite Plays – Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								St. Louis
			Tom Koehler							Michael Wacha
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-160							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.359	31.4%	13.2%	19.9%	37.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.320	30.2%	9.1%	19.0%	44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.329	0.329	29.3%	8.3%	17.4%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.314	29.1%	6.8%	21.1%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tom Koehler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		23 of 24	Salary Rank:		22 of 24	Salary Rank:		20 of 24
	2016	33	4.85	4.33	19.0%	10.7%	42.2%	28.6%	21.0%
	2017	9	5.30	7.43	17.7%	11.2%	37.3%	37.7%	10.8%

Koehler has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. Through nine starts, he is sporting a 5.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of hard contact. He comes into today’s start as a large underdog against the Cardinals, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There is more downside than upside in this matchup on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Koehler in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Wacha
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:		10 of 24	Salary Rank:		4 of 24	Salary Rank:		4 of 24
	2016	24	4.31	5.09	18.8%	7.4%	46.6%	30.0%	18.8%
	2017	15	4.20	4.16	22.7%	8.5%	46.9%	28.8%	19.3%

Wacha had a six start stretch where he seemed to have lost his command. He was giving up runs in bunches and only posted one quality start during that stretch. Since then, he has bounced back nicely with two excellent outings against the Reds and Nationals. The appeal with Wacha is simple – his velocity is up this season and he is generating more swings and misses, which has turned into a higher strikeout rate. I expect him to be popular today against the Marlins, who are ranked 20th in team wOBA and tenth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins had a big game last night in St. Louis, but draw a tough matchup against Michael Wacha. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Wacha has a decent ground ball rate and his command has been sharp in his last two starts. Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour are intriguing one-off targets, but overall, this isn’t a spot where I want to load up on the Marlins.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.300	0.250	0.076	18.4%	5.5%	14.7%	57.1%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.341	0.338	0.239	37.0%	9.3%	28.5%	40.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.381	0.180	39.8%	12.3%	19.7%	54.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,700
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.339	0.197	37.4%	7.6%	20.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.358	0.388	0.230	40.1%	11.5%	17.9%	43.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.305	0.304	0.109	25.4%	5.6%	10.9%	49.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.334	0.310	0.122	30.8%	5.5%	16.9%	50.0%	C	$3,100	C	$4,100	C	$8,100
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.279	0.286	0.151	40.8%	5.1%	20.3%	49.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.057	0.099	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	54.0%	64.7%	P	$5,600	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals have a high implied run total today, especially for a team that is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. As mentioned above, Tom Koehler has been one of the most hittable starting pitchers in baseball this season. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has given up a lot of hard contact. His splits are fairly neutral, although he gives up a slightly higher xwOBA to left-handed hitters. A Cardinals’ stack is certainly viable here. Luke Voit offers great value if he’s batting clean-up again. Before getting called up, he had a .416 wOBA in Triple-A this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.384	0.414	0.259	46.6%	16.1%	19.2%	27.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.197	40.0%	9.4%	29.7%	52.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,200
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.333	0.349	0.164	32.9%	8.5%	21.0%	45.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
4	Luke Voit	RIGHT	1.016	0.643	0.667	66.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.326	0.332	0.124	32.2%	5.9%	11.7%	47.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.316	0.322	0.230	41.6%	4.7%	30.3%	41.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.305	0.304	0.222	37.5%	0.0%	31.7%	33.9%	2B	$2,600	2B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
8	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.337	0.350	0.094	23.9%	15.2%	17.3%	48.3%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.072	0.101	0.000	7.4%	5.3%	47.4%	83.3%	P	$7,900	P	$10,700	P	$20,700

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Luke Voit, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Chicago Cubs
			Zach Davies							Mike Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-160							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.324	33.2%	7.1%	17.1%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.305	26.9%	8.4%	20.6%	59.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.308	31.9%	5.5%	18.8%	51.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.312	27.2%	10.8%	21.5%	59.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		16 of 24	Salary Rank:		9 of 24	Salary Rank:		9 of 24
	2016	28	4.06	3.97	19.8%	5.6%	45.5%	33.8%	19.7%
	2017	17	4.84	5.03	14.9%	7.4%	50.0%	30.4%	21.4%

Davies has struggled all season, posting a 4.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. It’s a bit strange because his ground ball rate, hard contact rate, and soft contact rate have all improved since last season. He just isn’t striking anyone out, which is critical to success in DFS. Even though the Cubs have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, Davies is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Davies doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for his high ERA.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		12 of 24	Salary Rank:		11 of 24	Salary Rank:		11 of 24
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	5	4.31	2.80	19.6%	11.3%	60.8%	29.4%	22.8%

Montgomery may not be as good as his 2.80 ERA would suggest, but there are a lot of things to like. I always talk about having interest in pitchers with elite ground ball rates and at least a league average strikeout rate. Montgomery fits the mold, as he has a 61% ground ball rate and a 20% strikeout rate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who have the third highest k-rate against left-handed pitching this season. We also have the wind in Wrigley blowing slightly in from right, which never hurts.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Montgomery may be the best pitching value in early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have a lot of right-handed hitters in their lineup, but that doesn’t always mean that the offense hits left-handed pitching well. They are ranked 14th in team wOBA and have one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball against southpaws. To make matters worse, they are facing Mike Montgomery, who owns a 61% ground ball rate (59%+ to both left and right-handed hitters). Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana are both viable GPP targets, but this isn’t a spot to load up on the Brewers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.354	0.294	0.203	33.3%	10.9%	29.1%	47.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.352	0.326	0.313	41.5%	9.3%	34.7%	41.5%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,600	1B	$9,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.413	0.407	0.252	40.8%	11.4%	13.7%	50.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.282	0.259	0.199	29.1%	5.3%	26.3%	42.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.379	0.384	0.238	41.1%	12.9%	24.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.326	0.336	0.081	41.7%	7.2%	18.1%	40.0%	C	$2,500	C	$4,100	C	$8,100
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.370	0.338	0.231	40.2%	13.9%	36.7%	43.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.322	0.263	0.140	30.2%	10.8%	17.5%	46.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.040	0.098	0.000	11.8%	0.0%	34.6%	54.5%	P	$7,200	P	$8,800	P	$17,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw one of the best matchups in the slate. While they have been a constant disappointment against right-handed pitching, they should be able to knock Zach Davies around a bit. In the last two seasons, Davies has allowed a .324 xwOBA to lefties and a 32% hard contact rate to righties. His strikeout rate is down to 15% this year and the Cubs come into the game as large favorites at home.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.341	0.310	0.205	34.1%	8.9%	27.4%	52.8%	C	$3,300	C	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.377	0.347	0.238	36.2%	10.5%	22.8%	31.3%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.386	0.381	0.249	35.7%	12.7%	15.4%	36.2%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.348	0.366	0.176	33.8%	15.2%	11.7%	47.0%	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.345	0.339	0.271	35.1%	9.8%	31.6%	43.4%	OF	$3,600	2B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.296	0.312	0.112	26.7%	8.2%	13.6%	46.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.301	0.295	0.162	28.5%	7.3%	22.4%	43.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.294	0.265	0.152	29.4%	2.4%	26.1%	46.2%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,300	2B	$6,400
9	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.042	0.126	0.000	30.8%	0.0%	43.5%	80.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,800	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Colorado
			Sal Romano							Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-165							12.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.424	0.404	25.0%	12.5%	25.0%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.322	27.8%	11.8%	19.1%	56.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.588	0.488	42.9%	30.0%	0.0%	16.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.316	29.9%	10.7%	17.6%	57.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,200	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:		24 of 24	Salary Rank:		24 of 24	Salary Rank:		22 of 24

	2017	1	8.57	6.00	11.1%	22.2%	20.0%	36.4%	36.4%

Romano is making his second career major league start and it’s unfortunate that he has to face the Rockies in Coors Field. In his nine Triple-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 3.39 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 14%. Low strikeout pitchers have enough problems in Coors Field to begin with, let alone ones that are making their second start at the major league level.

Quick Breakdown: I avoid almost all pitchers in Coors Field and that includes Romano.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		22 of 24	Salary Rank:		14 of 24	Salary Rank:		14 of 24
	2016	27	4.62	3.87	17.5%	10.5%	57.2%	29.5%	19.0%
	2017	17	4.82	4.41	19.8%	12.6%	56.7%	27.7%	22.7%

Chatwood has pitched well at home in the last few seasons, but his struggles in Coors Field are well documented. He does boast a high ground ball rate, but that’s not nearly enough justification to play him in DFS. The Reds are surprisingly ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and their strikeout rate is lower than the major league average.

Quick Breakdown: As usual, we can avoid both pitchers taking the mound in Coors Field.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in the best hitter’s park in all of baseball. While they only scored three runs last night, they draw a better matchup today. Tyler Chatwood has not pitched well at Coors Field and has allowed a .316+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Reds have quite a few fly-ball hitters in their lineup, which is good when facing a ground ball pitcher like Chatwood. We don’t need to overthink this one, the Reds are playing in Coors Field and make for a viable stack in cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.303	0.253	0.081	18.3%	9.1%	20.1%	47.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,800
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.339	0.302	0.181	29.6%	9.3%	17.1%	39.1%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.427	0.439	0.265	39.8%	17.6%	13.9%	36.3%	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,700	1B	$11,200
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.339	0.327	0.260	36.9%	5.8%	26.5%	33.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300	IF/OF	$10,400
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.341	0.299	0.193	33.0%	6.0%	20.3%	42.5%	2B	$4,000	2B/OF	$4,700	2B	$9,300
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.313	0.316	0.156	33.3%	8.6%	23.8%	40.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.344	0.342	0.218	36.7%	8.7%	21.4%	49.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.322	0.337	0.131	32.0%	9.0%	13.7%	43.6%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
9	Sal Romano	RIGHT								P	$5,500	P	$4,200	P	$8,400

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total in the slate and rightly so. They are facing a rookie pitcher in Coors Field. Sal Romano is still an unknown quantity at the major league level, but we know he had a low strikeout rate and an average ground ball rate in the minors. The Rockies should be able to jump on him early and potentially get into the Reds’ bullpen earlier than Cincinnati would like. I know I’ve said this a few times recently, but this is one of the best spots the Rockies have been in this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.402	0.361	0.274	37.9%	7.5%	18.8%	32.2%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,900	CF	$11,600
2	Raimel Tapia	LEFT	0.302	0.251	0.048	20.3%	5.5%	17.6%	41.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.369	0.344	0.259	37.4%	7.9%	15.4%	35.8%	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,600	3B	$10,800
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.351	0.342	0.185	33.0%	10.4%	18.3%	44.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.397	0.333	0.241	31.0%	9.6%	25.6%	40.1%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,200
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.332	0.312	0.231	35.8%	8.1%	31.5%	31.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
7	Alexi Amarista	LEFT	0.278	0.260	0.072	23.2%	4.5%	19.1%	45.2%	SS	$2,800	OF/SS	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.320	0.292	0.110	21.5%	11.7%	20.1%	46.8%	C	$3,000	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.237	0.183	0.061	9.5%	3.5%	22.8%	55.6%	P	$6,300	P	$6,900	P	$13,800

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 6:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Philadelphia
			Chad Kuhl							Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.393	0.347	37.2%	9.0%	17.0%	36.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.353	28.0%	9.1%	15.0%	32.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.290	29.6%	6.6%	19.3%	48.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.307	26.2%	3.5%	19.2%	44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 24	Salary Rank:		15 of 24	Salary Rank:		of 24
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	16	4.81	5.26	18.7%	8.8%	41.3%	33.3%	15.2%

This game is only featured in the all-day slate, so most of you can scroll to the next game. Kuhl is good at keeping right-handed hitters in check, but he really struggles against batters from the left side of the plate. In 16 starts overall this season, he owns a subpar 4.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. The Phillies do struggle against right-handed pitching, but they’ll likely have five or six lefties in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: With this game being played in Citizens Bank Park, Kuhl is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 24	Salary Rank:		19 of 24	Salary Rank:		of 24
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	17	5.54	4.48	12.1%	6.7%	36.3%	29.0%	19.1%

Hellickson has not been sharp this season, posting a 5.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. It doesn’t matter who you are facing, a 12% strikeout rate just isn’t going to make the cut in DFS. To make matters worse, he has to face a Pirates’ offense that has the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and he has to face them at home in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson has little to no upside and has been in awful form. He should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has really struggled this season. With this game only being included in the all-day slate, I expect it to go under-owned. Give a slight edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Hellickson has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. I also like the red-hot bat of Andrew McCutchen in this small ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.324	0.331	0.126	31.5%	8.9%	14.3%	45.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.311	0.292	0.110	28.2%	4.4%	15.0%	42.6%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.333	0.342	0.170	34.9%	9.9%	20.5%	37.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.353	0.197	33.2%	12.4%	17.1%	51.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.323	0.127	31.4%	9.3%	26.1%	58.6%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.325	0.337	0.190	32.9%	8.9%	16.6%	39.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.325	0.091	28.4%	13.2%	18.8%	52.4%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.297	0.119	25.7%	8.4%	14.7%	49.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.061	0.162	0.000	25.0%	5.3%	31.6%	76.2%	P	$6,900	P	$6,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ matchup against Chad Kuhl is one of the easiest in the slate to break down. The left-handed hitters are firmly in play, while the right-handed hitters are in a very tough spot. Over the last two seasons, Kuhl has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact to lefties, while holding righties to a .290 xwOBA with a 49% hard contact rate. I wouldn’t go overboard targeting the Phillies’ lefties, but they are viable value plays in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ty Kelly	SWITCH	0.277	0.286	0.153	28.8%	9.6%	19.3%	41.4%	2B	$2,100	3B/OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.301	0.276	0.170	28.4%	5.7%	21.0%	40.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.314	0.297	0.149	33.8%	8.9%	31.0%	45.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.285	0.315	0.142	28.2%	6.6%	16.2%	46.4%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.396	0.380	0.000	60.0%	12.5%	12.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.324	0.325	0.209	38.6%	5.5%	22.9%	42.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.331	0.307	0.151	29.6%	8.2%	21.1%	43.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.362	0.338	0.181	38.6%	13.4%	27.8%	59.6%	C	$2,700	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.182	0.175	0.063	8.3%	7.9%	28.9%	78.9%	P	$7,100	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 6th

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Stackability Rating System:

San Francisco at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Luke Voit, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 6:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ty Kelly, Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW

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