MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 11th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Editor’s Note: Tyler Anderson has been scratched from his start tonight.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Jason Vargas |  | Jake Odorizzi | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TB -113 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.285 | 0.244 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.268 | 0.279 | 32.1% | 6.7% | 25.8% | 38.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.227 | 0.257 | 29.7% | 6.1% | 25.6% | 38.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.341 | 33.9% | 6.7% | 18.4% | 35.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jason Vargas | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 3.96 | 2.25 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 36.4% | 33.3% | 15.2% | |
| 2017 | 6 | 3.46 | 1.19 | 23.8% | 4.8% | 41.7% | 26.9% | 19.2% | |
Vargas may not be as dominant as his 1.19 ERA suggests, but a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% is still impressive, especially given most people’s expectations heading into the season. If you are playing in the early two-game slate, this is the game to target for your pitcher. The Rays have a few hitters that fare well against left-handed pitching, but they have the highest strikeout rate in baseball (27%). Vargas is a small underdog since he is pitching on the road, but he is firmly in play in the early slate.
Quick Breakdown: The strikeout upside is massive for Vargas. Eight Rays’ starters have a strikeout rate of at least 20% against southpaws.
| Jake Odorizzi | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $9,700 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 4.21 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 36.6% | 33.7% | 16.8% | |
| 2017 | 5 | 3.74 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 4.3% | 36.2% | 29.0% | 15.9% | |
If you are playing single pitcher sites, you should basically end up with either Odorizzi or Vargas. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, you should be using both. Odorizzi has great numbers at home throughout his career and he’s off to a fast start this season, boasting a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 4%. The Royals are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they are no longer a contact team with a low strikeout rate.
Quick Breakdown: Both pitchers are viable in this game. Odorizzi has a slightly higher floor, while Vargas has a higher ceiling.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Red Sox/Brewers game is the one to load up on if you are playing in the early slate. However, seeing as how we only have two games to choose one, we shouldn’t automatically write off the Royals, especially if you aren’t playing Jake Odorizzi. He is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .341 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. Salvador Perez has been swinging a hot bat and may be the top catching option in the slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.255 | 0.083 | 21.1% | 3.8% | 15.1% | 47.4% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,900 | ||
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.361 | 0.268 | 35.7% | 7.3% | 13.6% | 36.4% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,200 | ||
| 3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.357 | 0.170 | 36.1% | 9.9% | 18.2% | 57.7% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,300 | ||
| 4 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.301 | 0.196 | 36.2% | 3.4% | 21.0% | 34.8% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,000 | ||
| 5 | Jorge Bonifacio | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.359 | 0.188 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 28.6% | 45.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,900 | ||
| 6 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.280 | 0.105 | 31.7% | 4.8% | 20.7% | 44.4% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/OF | $3,300 | ||
| 7 | Jorge Soler | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.303 | 0.190 | 29.2% | 13.4% | 25.7% | 39.8% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 | ||
| 8 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.295 | 0.321 | 0.148 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 27.3% | 39.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 9 | Cheslor Cuthbert | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.277 | 0.130 | 31.2% | 6.8% | 19.3% | 47.6% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,900 |
Elite Plays – Salvador Perez
Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Jorge Soler
Stackability – ORANGE
Tampa Bay
The sample size on the new and improved version of Jason Vargas is small (nine starts over the last two seasons), but during that stretch, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate. The Rays’ lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters, but the only three on my radar here are Tim Beckham, Evan Longoria, and Rickie Weeks. Again, the optimal strategy in the early slate is taking a pitcher from this game and loading up on the offenses in the Red Sox/Brewers game.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.157 | 37.2% | 8.2% | 32.8% | 52.6% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,500 | ||
| 2 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.296 | 0.121 | 34.0% | 4.7% | 27.5% | 52.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,600 | ||
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.345 | 0.186 | 33.8% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 34.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,300 | ||
| 4 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.330 | 0.104 | 26.3% | 11.4% | 22.7% | 54.4% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,700 | ||
| 5 | Rickie Weeks | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.425 | 0.311 | 52.5% | 15.7% | 26.9% | 39.3% | OF | $2,500 | 1B | $3,200 | ||
| 6 | Daniel Robertson | RIGHT | 0.381 | 0.334 | 0.091 | 40.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 40.0% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $3,200 | ||
| 7 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.274 | 0.135 | 29.7% | 10.1% | 24.8% | 45.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 8 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.318 | 0.137 | 42.1% | 9.9% | 21.7% | 31.8% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | ||
| 9 | Peter Bourjos | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.243 | 0.046 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 22.4% | 48.8% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,700 |
Elite Plays – Tim Beckham
Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Rickie Weeks, Daniel Robertson
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET
| Boston | Milwaukee | ||||||||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-120 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.329 | 0.287 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 26.2% | 41.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.344 | 0.343 | 37.1% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 45.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.307 | 29.2% | 9.7% | 22.9% | 29.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.310 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 52.4% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Eduardo Rodriguez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | 4.44 | 4.71 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 31.6% | 27.6% | 22.2% | |
| 2017 | 5 | 3.69 | 3.07 | 30.3% | 12.3% | 33.3% | 29.0% | 17.4% | |
Rodriguez hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last five starts. His command hasn’t been great, but we can live with that when he has a 30% strikeout rate. I have a hard time seeing Rodriguez sustain a 30% strikeout rate, but the velocity looks good and his swinging strike rate is over 14% to start the year. If you are looking to differentiate yourself in a tournament, Rodriguez offers great upside against the Brewers and he should have a lower ownership than both Jake Odorizzi and Jason Vargas.
Quick Breakdown: The Brewers are very good against left-handed pitching, so limit Rodriguez to tournaments.
| Jimmy Nelson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 22 | Salary Rank: | of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 4.92 | 4.62 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 49.4% | 32.6% | 21.3% | |
| 2017 | 6 | 4.33 | 4.83 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 45.9% | 32.0% | 16.0% | |
Nelson is the only pitcher of the four in this slate that I have zero interest in. When that happens, that usually means he will end up being the highest scoring one of the bunch. While that’s certainly possible, it’s not likely. He doesn’t do anything particularly well – he has a below-average strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of hard contact, and he doesn’t hold runners well. He is also facing the Red Sox in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: The Red Sox offense will go into hibernation every now and then, but Nelson is the least appealing option in this two-game slate.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox have the highest implied run total in the early slate and one of the highest of any team on the schedule today. You couldn’t draw up a better matchup for the left-handed hitters in this lineup. Since the start of last season, Jimmy Nelson has allowed a .343 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate. He also walks lefties at a rate of 12.5%. The right-handed bats are also worth a look here, especially the ones that have some speed. Nelson has allowed 60 stolen bases in his last 68 starts.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 33.5% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 41.6% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,800 | ||
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.330 | 0.131 | 33.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 50.4% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,500 | ||
| 3 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.296 | 0.137 | 29.0% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 48.1% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $5,000 | ||
| 4 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.403 | 0.352 | 0.224 | 37.4% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 34.9% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,000 | ||
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.354 | 0.189 | 38.3% | 7.9% | 22.4% | 39.5% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,400 | ||
| 6 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.357 | 0.239 | 38.5% | 10.5% | 21.8% | 46.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,400 | ||
| 7 | Josh Rutledge | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.221 | 0.085 | 30.0% | 9.4% | 34.0% | 65.5% | 3B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $2,800 | ||
| 8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.257 | 0.080 | 30.9% | 2.7% | 21.6% | 58.5% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | ||
| 9 | Eduardo Rodriguez | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $7,800 | P | $8,400 |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Secondary Plays – Josh Rutledge
Stackability – GREEN
Milwaukee
The Brewers have been fun to watch, which is something I didn’t expect to say a month and a half into the season. If you look at their projected lineup below, you will see that the first seven batters have at least a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well this season and does have some strikeout upside, but I like the Brewers’ offense in this spot, especially those that can hit from the right side of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.356 | 0.302 | 0.204 | 33.3% | 10.7% | 28.0% | 44.0% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,900 | ||
| 2 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.322 | 0.202 | 42.9% | 14.8% | 39.3% | 46.4% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,500 | ||
| 3 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.285 | 0.208 | 37.4% | 3.9% | 22.5% | 36.9% | OF | $3,100 | OF/SS | $4,000 | ||
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.262 | 0.203 | 28.3% | 4.1% | 27.0% | 41.8% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,000 | ||
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.401 | 0.220 | 36.6% | 14.4% | 25.4% | 42.3% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | ||
| 6 | Jesus Aguilar | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.238 | 0.063 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 58.3% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,200 | ||
| 7 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.332 | 0.044 | 43.2% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 43.2% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | ||
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.293 | 0.179 | 34.0% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 42.9% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,400 | ||
| 9 | Jimmy Nelson | RIGHT | 0.042 | 0.055 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.2% | 85.7% | P | $7,400 | P | $7,000 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Keon Broxton, Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana
Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw, Manny Pina
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Houston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
| Houston | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
 | Dallas Keuchel |  | Michael Pineda | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-125 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.242 | 0.280 | 25.4% | 3.4% | 22.5% | 62.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.333 | 0.300 | 34.1% | 8.2% | 29.0% | 46.2% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.315 | 0.309 | 28.5% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 57.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.320 | 0.299 | 30.4% | 5.1% | 27.1% | 46.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dallas Keuchel | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | $11,000 | Salary: | $21,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | 3.77 | 4.55 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 56.7% | 29.8% | 21.1% | |
| 2017 | 7 | 3.37 | 1.88 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 63.0% | 20.9% | 26.6% | |
Keuchel’s ERA has been a roller coaster in the last three seasons, but he’s basically been the same pitcher the entire time. He has an elite ground ball rate, a slightly above-average strikeout rate, and he generates a lot of soft contact. He is the most expensive pitcher in tonight’s slate, even though he draws one of the most difficult matchups. The Yankees are ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The pitching options are scarce tonight, so we aren’t going to feel too confident in our selections. With that said, I have a hard time paying a premium for Keuchel on the road against the Yankees.
Quick Breakdown: I’m a Keuchel believer, but I will be hopping off the bandwagon for tonight’s game against the Yankees.
| Michael Pineda | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $18,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 3.40 | 4.82 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 45.8% | 32.7% | 17.2% | |
| 2017 | 6 | 2.46 | 3.12 | 31.2% | 3.6% | 50.0% | 28.1% | 15.7% | |
I usually don’t target pitchers against the Astros, but Pineda is my favorite play in the slate. For all of the Pineda truthers that have been trusting his peripheral stats for two years, it’s great to see him finally have some success. In six starts this season, he has a 2.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 3%. The Astros hit right-handed pitching well and strikeout at a low rate, but I’m not going to let the matchup take me off of a solid play.
Quick Breakdown: There are basically two pitching options at the top that I’m considering and Pineda is considerably cheaper than Greinke.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
There are very few times throughout the season when a game in Yankee Stadium has an over/under of 7.5 runs. These may be the two most talented pitchers in the slate, so we shouldn’t be looking to load up batters from either lineup. Michael Pineda has a 27%+ strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters and he has held both under a .300 xwOBA since the start of last season. He’s not great at holding runners, but it’s not bad enough to a point where I actively target speed against him.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.329 | 0.169 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 24.0% | 50.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,400 |
| 2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.356 | 0.166 | 31.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 38.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,600 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.371 | 0.184 | 31.8% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 43.2% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.367 | 0.188 | 38.1% | 9.9% | 21.5% | 48.5% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,000 |
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.329 | 0.309 | 0.191 | 31.8% | 5.4% | 17.9% | 47.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.359 | 0.174 | 37.9% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 34.7% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.301 | 0.145 | 29.0% | 4.0% | 11.9% | 47.2% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 8 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.303 | 0.165 | 30.5% | 7.9% | 21.3% | 36.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
| 9 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.122 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 57.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
The Yankees draw a difficult matchup tonight against Dallas Keuchel, who has an above-average strikeout rate and one of the highest ground ball rates of any pitcher in baseball. Ground balls lead to more singles, but fewer extra-base hits. The two batters that stand out from New York are Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, who both have high fly-ball rates. They also both have a 46%+ hard contact rate against lefties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.262 | 0.080 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 19.8% | 54.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.424 | 0.357 | 46.0% | 16.2% | 29.4% | 40.5% | C | $3,500 | C | $4,300 | C | $8,400 |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.386 | 0.299 | 45.1% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 45.0% | OF | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.326 | 0.156 | 31.6% | 5.9% | 18.0% | 46.5% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.403 | 0.314 | 47.4% | 20.0% | 35.6% | 31.6% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,300 |
| 6 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.292 | 0.317 | 0.089 | 29.2% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 44.7% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.293 | 0.141 | 22.4% | 2.8% | 8.5% | 37.4% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
| 8 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.381 | 0.297 | 37.4% | 12.1% | 27.5% | 37.4% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 9 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.252 | 0.291 | 0.135 | 35.6% | 8.0% | 19.6% | 45.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $2,600 | CF | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez
Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | Washington | ||||||||||||||
 | Dylan Bundy |  | A.J. Cole | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| WAS-105 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.312 | 0.318 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 35.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.280 | 28.6% | 11.3% | 21.7% | 34.3% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.316 | 26.9% | 8.6% | 23.4% | 33.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 0.310 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 34.4% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 28.0% | 23.6% | |
| 2017 | 7 | 4.74 | 2.17 | 15.9% | 6.3% | 31.3% | 28.7% | 25.0% | |
Al Dylan Bundy takes the mound tonight for the Orioles. Those outside of DFS and outside of hardcore baseball fans would see his 2.17 ERA and think that he was off to a great start this season. However, his strikeout rate is down to 16% and he is relying on unsustainable numbers when it comes to his BABIP, HR/FB%, and LOB%. Regression is right around the corner and we could see it tonight against the Nationals, who have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy is an easy fade in cash games and tournaments.
| A.J. Cole | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $13,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 | 4.33 | 5.17 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 31.9% | 25.7% | 18.6% | |
| 2017 | 1 | 6.78 | 1.50 | 8.3% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 11.1% | |
I was kicking myself when lineups locked yesterday. All day, I had recommended playing Chris Archer over Stephen Strasburg, but I decided to take the $400 discount on DraftKings in order to upgrade one of my hitters. It felt wrong when I did it and it felt even worse a couple of hours later. The lesson to be gained here is to trust your original instinct, especially when it is backed by the numbers. A.J. Cole would be an intriguing GPP play if he was a little cheaper. He has shown decent strikeout upside in the minors and he’s pitching at home, but I wish we were getting a bigger discount.
Quick Breakdown:
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles knocked Stephen Strasburg around last night and will look to do the same to A.J. Cole, who is only making his tenth major league start in the last two seasons. The sample size is small, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. Baltimore is also facing him in a pitcher-friendly National League ballpark. I may fade the Orioles in tournaments, especially if the projected ownership gets too high.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.380 | 0.178 | 33.7% | 11.3% | 19.8% | 47.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.344 | 0.188 | 32.6% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 43.8% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,600 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.366 | 0.244 | 35.7% | 6.9% | 18.6% | 36.8% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,900 | 3B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.359 | 0.256 | 41.6% | 14.3% | 33.9% | 37.5% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 5 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.381 | 0.271 | 37.4% | 7.8% | 24.2% | 39.1% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.320 | 0.203 | 29.7% | 2.7% | 19.4% | 43.2% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
| 7 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.114 | 30.3% | 4.3% | 16.6% | 43.2% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
| 8 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.222 | 0.249 | 0.038 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 19.3% | 43.8% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,800 |
| 9 | Dylan Bundy | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 100.0% | P | $8,000 | P | $7,500 | P | $14,800 |
Elite Plays – Manny Machado
Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Washington
I may be in the minority here, but I like the Nationals’ offense a lot more than the Orioles’ offense. Dylan Bundy hasn’t looked great this season and we know the Nationals can put runs up quickly, even in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. In terms of splits, there isn’t anything that jumps off the page, but Bundy has allowed a .316+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He is also below-average at holding runners, which gives a small boost to Trea Turner and Michael Taylor.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.336 | 0.245 | 33.7% | 5.0% | 19.2% | 42.9% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,600 |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.143 | 32.7% | 10.9% | 24.7% | 41.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,500 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.394 | 0.235 | 35.6% | 19.3% | 15.7% | 39.4% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,800 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.336 | 0.196 | 35.9% | 5.3% | 23.7% | 44.7% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 5 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.415 | 0.399 | 0.247 | 38.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 34.9% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $5,100 | 2B | $10,000 |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.344 | 0.181 | 34.8% | 8.9% | 18.7% | 37.6% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.322 | 0.177 | 33.2% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 37.3% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
| 8 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.266 | 0.107 | 31.2% | 5.9% | 31.7% | 44.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 9 | A.J. Cole | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.063 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 100.0% | P | $6,400 | P | $6,900 | P | $13,600 |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – YELLOW
Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
 | Chase De Jong |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TOR-144 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.438 | 0.335 | 37.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 22.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.268 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 23.3% | 36.2% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.317 | 0.337 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 38.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.315 | 34.6% | 8.5% | 23.4% | 32.8% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chase De Jong | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $12,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 19 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | 5.87 | 6.75 | 10.2% | 8.5% | 29.2% | 31.3% | 16.7% | |
De Jong is making his third career major league start tonight against the Blue Jays, who are finally starting to show some signs of life at the plate. De Jong has shown some strikeout upside in the minors, but is still an unknown quantity at the major league level. On the plus side, he could be facing a Toronto offense without Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki. De Jong is a decent flier in tournaments, but he seems a bit overpriced.
Quick Breakdown: De Jong isn’t cheap enough to take a flier on him in anything other than a large field tournament.
| Marco Estrada | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $16,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 22 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 22 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | 4.35 | 3.48 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 33.5% | 31.3% | 21.1% | |
| 2017 | 7 | 3.56 | 3.14 | 25.4% | 6.8% | 38.8% | 25.4% | 13.6% | |
Estrada’s last start was a perfect example of the boom or bust nature to his pitching style. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. When he’s able to limit the hard contact against him, he can put up some great fantasy performances. The downside is that when he gives up hard contact, it can get ugly quickly. This Mariners’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently and will have Nelson Cruz back in the lineup with this game being played in an American League ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Estrada will get some love around the industry today, but he’s a calculated fade on my end.
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
The Mariners are ranked inside the top ten in wOBA, BB%, and K% against right-handed pitching this season. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre and they get to face an extreme fly-ball pitcher in Marco Estrada. The Mariners will get overlooked in all formats and make for an intriguing low-owned stack for tournaments. Ben Gamel has six multi-hit games in his last eight, while Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Cruz, and Kyle Seager all have great power numbers against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.345 | 0.186 | 29.6% | 5.1% | 13.0% | 52.2% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
| 2 | Ben Gamel | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.297 | 0.111 | 32.1% | 11.6% | 26.7% | 34.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.394 | 0.397 | 0.267 | 38.1% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 43.5% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,700 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.380 | 0.234 | 35.1% | 8.8% | 24.3% | 43.5% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.407 | 0.219 | 39.7% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 34.9% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 6 | Danny Valencia | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.316 | 0.147 | 30.0% | 6.8% | 24.3% | 42.8% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 7 | Guillermo Heredia | SWITCH | 0.316 | 0.295 | 0.078 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 17.6% | 49.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,600 |
| 8 | Carlos Ruiz | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.330 | 0.066 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 15.6% | 46.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,800 |
| 9 | Jarrod Dyson | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.271 | 0.090 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 52.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays may end up having the least talented lineup in the slate, yet they have one of the highest implied run totals on the board. Chase De Jong is still an unknown quantity at the major league level and Vegas seems to have a lot of confidence in Toronto tonight. The top five batters in this lineup are all in play, but I would rather pick my spots with the Blue Jays rather than stacking them as a whole.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.288 | 0.117 | 26.5% | 5.1% | 15.4% | 48.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.259 | 0.109 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 22.0% | 57.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,700 | RF | $5,400 |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.357 | 0.197 | 38.6% | 17.1% | 23.0% | 36.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,600 |
| 4 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.330 | 0.179 | 41.5% | 10.7% | 35.1% | 27.8% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.343 | 0.156 | 30.4% | 9.1% | 17.8% | 46.4% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,300 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.256 | 0.264 | 0.162 | 30.5% | 6.9% | 22.5% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,400 | SS | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| 7 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.274 | 0.100 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 16.9% | 49.7% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/3B | $2,900 | 2B | $5,600 |
| 8 | Chris Coghlan | LEFT | 0.275 | 0.285 | 0.135 | 29.1% | 10.5% | 25.8% | 45.4% | OF | $2,000 | 3B | $2,500 | IF/OF | $4,800 |
| 9 | Luke Maile | RIGHT | 0.232 | 0.233 | 0.092 | 29.7% | 4.8% | 24.8% | 52.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,300 | C | $4,500 |