MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-27 01:34:32

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Pittsburgh
			Patrick Corbin					Gerrit Cole
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -170					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.266	2	30.7%	7.1%	SP vs. Left	0.272	6	24.3%	6.2%
SP vs. Right	0.342	16	16.7%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.283	8	22.6%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Patrick Corbin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		21.4	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		60.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	96.0	4.13	3.55	20.8%	9.4%	7.3%	45.9%	27.0%	43.2%
2016	9	93.3	4.25	3.99	16.5%	7.2%	8.8%	51.7%	29.3%	40.8%
2015	16	78.4	3.44	3.60	21.9%	4.8%	10.8%	46.9%	29.5%	31.5%

The biggest knock on Corbin a year ago was his inability to pitch deep into games. That is no longer an issue, as he is averaging 93.3 pitches per start (which is a new statistic added to the pitcher tables). In nine starts this season, Corbin owns a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.5%. His swinging strike rate is down significantly, which could help explain the lower strikeout rate. As a large underdog on the road against the Pirates, Corbin can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gerrit Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		17.6
					Pitcher Rating:		92.2	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	102.0	4.90	0.60	12.7%	1.8%	5.4%	26.7%	46.7%	21.3%
2016	8	99.5	4.09	2.79	19.8%	6.6%	8.0%	38.4%	37.0%	30.6%
2015	32	101.2	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Cole grades out as a top three pitching option today. Given the fact that the two pitchers ranked ahead of him are squaring off against one another, he actually has the best chance of the three to pick up a win. He hasn’t been as sharp as a season ago, but he still boasts a 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 20%. He has always pitched well at PNC Park and his matchup against the Diamondbacks certainly isn’t intimidating. On the season, Arizona is ranked between tenth and 17th in team wOBA, team ISO, and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw one of the worst matchups on the schedule. In addition to having the third lowest team total on the board, the splits don’t favor hitters from either side of the plate. Over the last two seasons, Gerrit Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. The Diamondbacks are an easy team to avoid today, even in the early-only slate.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.56 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.34 (14 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.285	0.096	0.260	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,500
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.267	0.046	0.353	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.401	0.240	0.373	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.344	0.165	0.355	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,300
5	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.332	0.201	0.315	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$2,200
6	Chris Herrmann	LEFT	0.324	0.243	0.463	C	$3,200	C	$2,900
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.272	0.094	0.377	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
8	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.295	0.108	0.269	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
9	Patrick Corbin	LEFT	0.235	0.057	0.177	P	$7,100	P	$7,200
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.139	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a mediocre projection of 4.16 runs, but they are a good offense to target, especially if you are playing the early-only slate. They draw a decent matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has allowed a .342 wOBA and 16 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Jung-Ho Kang, and Francisco Cervelli all hit from the right side and all boast a .330+ wOBA against southpaws.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.362 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.02 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (9 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.332	0.101	0.345	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,300
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.386	0.204	0.334	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,300
3	David Freese	RIGHT	0.331	0.203	0.332	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,100
4	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.352	0.211	0.422	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,300
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.297	0.151	0.261	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.377	0.130	0.227	C	$2,700	C	$3,100
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.262	0.127	0.455	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,000
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.325	0.164	0.268	OF	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,600
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.274	0.000	0.177	P	$10,100	P	$9,900
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.143	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Miami at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Tampa Bay
			Jose Fernandez					Drew Smyly
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -105					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.346	5	24.9%	10.5%	SP vs. Left	0.260	3	38.2%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.221	2	39.5%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.304	17	25.3%	7.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Fernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$13,200
					FPPG:		45.9	FPPG:		25.0
					Pitcher Rating:		98.1	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	3	108.7	2.37	0.90	41.3%	10.7%	16.6%	38.2%	35.3%	50.0%
2016	9	101.9	2.88	3.02	35.9%	11.1%	14.5%	39.1%	30.0%	33.6%
2015	11	90.2	2.77	2.92	29.8%	5.3%	13.3%	40.1%	31.1%	29.4%

This should be a fun game to watch, as Fernandez and Smyly square off in what is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel. There was talk about the Marlins limiting Fernandez’s workload this season, but he is averaging 101.9 pitches per start on the year and 108.7 over his last three starts. He owns a 2.88 SIERA overall with a ridiculous strikeout rate of 35.9%. He slightly edges out Smyly as the top pitching option on the board. The Rays have the third highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		35.0	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		93.8	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	3	100.3	4.48	5.51	21.9%	8.2%	9.3%	19.6%	52.9%	33.3%
2016	9	99.2	3.26	3.54	28.4%	6.3%	12.0%	30.6%	52.1%	29.9%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Smyly had his breakout season a year ago and now he has become one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. In his first nine starts this season, he has a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4%. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Marlins, who outside of Giancarlo Stanton, have not hit left-handed pitching well. On the season, Miami is ranked 24th in team ISO and 25th in strikeout rate against southpaws. Smyly has as much upside as Fernandez and he is considerably cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He may be the better play in a dollar for dollar sense.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

With these two pitchers squaring off, I will not be targeting hitters on either of these offenses. The Marlins have the lowest team total on the board with a run projection of only 3.22. Drew Smyly has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding both under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.118 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.22 (16 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.347	0.115	0.243	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.359	0.121	0.255	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300
3	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.446	0.250	0.518	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500
4	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.315	0.178	0.291	C	$2,400	C	$3,100
5	Cole Gillespie	RIGHT	0.345	0.075	0.098	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.310	0.061	0.252	1B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,300
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.276	0.094	0.300	2B	$3,200	2B/3B	$2,300
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.271	0.086	0.399	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,100
9	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.255	0.214	0.178	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.133	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are minuscule favorites in this game, but still have the second lowest team total on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Jose Fernandez has dominated right-handed hitters. He has struggled a bit with left-handed bats, but that’s not enough of a reason to target any batters against him. Avoid both of these offenses in the early and all-day slates.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.5% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.28 (15 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.319	0.129	0.406	OF	$3,600	OF	$2,800
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.342	0.186	0.360	SS	$3,000	SS	$2,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.307	0.160	0.386	3B	$3,800	3B	$2,800
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.326	0.202	0.407	1B	$3,600	1B/2B	$2,800
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.319	0.181	0.349	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.315	0.175	0.489	1B	$3,100	1B	$2,600
7	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.278	0.113	0.384	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400
8	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.369	0.444	0.510	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,200
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.320	0.305	0.162	C	$2,300	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.211	0.384	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					NY Yankees
			J.A. Happ					CC Sabathia
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -107					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.289	2	24.4%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.251	4	28.7%	7.2%
SP vs. Right	0.310	20	18.4%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.358	25	16.7%	7.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		30.9	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		50.9	Pitcher Rank:		12
L14 Days	3	85.7	4.76	5.50	16.4%	9.6%	8.6%	47.1%	35.3%	22.2%
2016	9	92.0	4.58	3.43	16.0%	7.3%	9.1%	42.7%	35.1%	29.1%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ always seems to have a lower ERA than SIERA. That’s the case again this year, as his ERA is a full run lower than his SIERA. We generally like to use SIERA to predict future ERA, which suggests Happ may not be in line for the best season. His strikeout rate is way down this season and he has to face the Yankees in New York today. Unlike the Marlins/Rays game, we want to avoid both of the pitchers and load up on the bats from this game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		43.3	Pitcher Rank:		14
L14 Days	1	98.0	2.44	1.50	33.3%	4.2%	12.2%	30.8%	46.2%	14.3%
2016	6	92.0	4.38	3.41	19.5%	9.4%	9.1%	45.5%	34.7%	23.1%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia looked good in his first start back from injury, but it will take more than one good outing for me to start targeting him in DFS. He is an aging pitcher whose strikeout rate continues to decline with each passing season. He draws arguably the worst matchup on the board today. Even though the Blue Jays have struggled against southpaws this season, they are still ranked first in team wOBA when you combine this year and last year. Their lineup is full of right-handed bats that feast on left-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays numbers against lefties are mediocre this season, but if you take a look at the table below, you will see a lot of blue boxes. Their lineup is full of right-handed hitters that make their living by crushing left-handed pitching. They should have a field day against CC Sabathia, who has allowed a .358 wOBA and 25 home runs to righties over the last two seasons.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.147 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.9% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.55 (2 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.365	0.217	0.462	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,800
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.441	0.333	0.268	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,400
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.370	0.232	0.314	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,700
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.313	0.178	0.344	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,500
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.335	0.135	0.370	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,000
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.426	0.300	0.417	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.351	0.175	0.231	C	$2,000	C	$3,200
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.301	0.101	0.131	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.415	0.276		2B	$2,200	2B	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.369	0.216	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees don’t exactly hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but this should still be considered a favorable matchup. They have the fourth highest run projection of the 16 teams in action today and they get to face the struggling J.A. Happ at home. Over the last two seasons, Happ has allowed a .310 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.286 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.114 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.0% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.45 (4 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.299	0.088	0.444	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.314	0.102	0.325	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.316	0.189	0.464	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.314	0.167	0.303	C	$3,200	C	$3,500
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.302	0.089	0.245	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,000
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.292	0.109	0.355	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,000
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.296	0.071	0.348	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900
8	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.327	0.145	0.271	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.230	0.053	0.316	2B	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.113	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Chase Headley

Stackability – GPP

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					Washington
			Mike Leake					Joe Ross
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.308	19	15.0%	5.7%	SP vs. Left	0.344	5	16.4%	10.7%
SP vs. Right	0.284	10	15.1%	6.4%	SP vs. Right	0.225	5	24.8%	3.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Leake
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		25.1	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		48.2	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	3	91.7	3.83	0.86	13.6%	3.7%	5.8%	60.6%	27.3%	34.9%
2016	9	88.7	4.19	4.07	14.2%	5.2%	5.5%	52.2%	26.9%	35.5%
2015	30	91.8	4.19	3.70	15.3%	6.3%	6.3%	51.8%	26.6%	28.8%

Leake is one of the many pitchers that we can usually just gloss over thanks to his low strikeout rate. Through his first nine starts, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.2%. Every once in a while, we can look his way when he has a favorable matchup at home, but he is an easy avoid tonight on the road against the Nationals. There are better pitching options tonight – at cheaper and more expensive price points.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Joe Ross
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		24.5	FPPG:		12.7
					Pitcher Rating:		75.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	3	99.7	4.37	5.19	17.1%	7.3%	10.4%	45.8%	32.2%	29.0%
2016	8	91.5	4.19	2.70	18.9%	7.7%	10.1%	44.9%	31.2%	26.1%
2015	13	88.7	3.66	3.64	22.0%	6.7%	11.9%	49.8%	33.8%	30.2%

Ross is an interesting play tonight. He has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.9%. He checks in as a small favorite in a game that will be played in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. The main concern tonight is his matchup. The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking second in team wOBA and first in team ISO. Even though this isn’t an ideal spot, Ross grades out as the top pitching option in the evening slate, especially since Matt Carpenter is not currently with the team (paternity leave).

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the fourth lowest team total on the board tonight. While I do expect Joe Ross to be one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate, that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically avoid taking hitters against him. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.362 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.213 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.49 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (13 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.328	0.139	0.393	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,500
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.414	0.265	0.252	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.353	0.176	0.263	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.350	0.167	0.391	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.332	0.186	0.438	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.318	0.101	0.319	C	$2,800	C	$3,200
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.369	0.268	0.384	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
8	Ruben Tejada	RIGHT	0.287	0.072	0.226	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,500
9	Mike Leake	RIGHT	0.167	0.167	0.251	P	$6,600	P	$7,300
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.171	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong, Matt Adams

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals have the seventh highest team total on the board tonight, as they take on Mike Leake at home. Leake doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy stand out as an elite plays here, but the rest of the Nationals’ hitters are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (7 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.308	0.078	0.281	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.281	0.128	0.320	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.459	0.339	0.337	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.372	0.209	0.386	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,600
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.296	0.161	0.389	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.310	0.110	0.456	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,100
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.293	0.141	0.333	C	$3,500	C	$3,400
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.296	0.154	0.243	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	Joe Ross	RIGHT	0.129	0.027	0.221	P	$8,000	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.150	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Boston
			Jon Gray					Clay Buchholz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -170					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.332	2	26.3%	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.308	7	21.9%	6.8%
SP vs. Right	0.359	4	22.7%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.313	8	18.8%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		25.5	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		53.0	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	90.0	3.62	9.58	22.9%	8.3%	11.1%	55.2%	24.1%	22.6%
2016	6	91.5	2.97	6.75	28.3%	7.3%	11.8%	50.0%	21.4%	27.6%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

Gray may have the largest gap of any starting pitcher between his ERA and his SIERA. There is nearly a four run difference between the two. While we expect some of that thanks to the Coors Field effect, he should be able to turn things around here shortly. He has electric stuff and all the pieces needed to be a good starter at the major league level. Unfortunately, he faces the hottest offense in baseball tonight. The Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored per game and in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Gray should be on your radar moving forward, but not tonight in Fenway Park.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Clay Buchholz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		20.2	FPPG:		8.8
					Pitcher Rating:		58.6	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	3	96.0	5.91	6.35	13.0%	11.7%	10.1%	29.8%	50.9%	32.8%
2016	9	98.3	5.19	5.92	15.5%	10.6%	8.9%	37.0%	43.8%	30.3%
2015	18	95.3	3.35	3.26	22.8%	4.9%	10.6%	48.3%	30.5%	23.7%

The color coded boxes in the table above make it easy to compare statistics between seasons. Basically, Buchholz hasn’t been anywhere near the same pitcher that he was in 2015. In his first nine starts this season, he has a 5.19 SIERA with a very low strikeout rate of 15.5%. His swinging strike rate is down and he isn’t generating nearly as many ground balls. Even though I don’t mind targeting pitchers against the Rockies (away from Coors Field, of course), I have a hard time seeing the fantasy appeal for Buchholz right now.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t the best offensive team on the road, but they get to face a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. That doesn’t sound too bad, right? Colorado has the fifth highest team total on the board, as they take on Clay Buchholz in Fenway. In his nine starts this season, Buchholz has allowed a .393 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.334 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (5 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.356	0.174	0.425	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,400
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.352	0.288	0.332	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,700
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.387	0.304	0.326	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,900
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.402	0.295	0.212	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.325	0.161	0.322	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,300
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.332	0.163	0.250	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
7	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.330	0.106	0.385	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.264	0.065	0.249	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
9	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.312	0.182	0.279	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.193	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

The Red Sox continue to mash the ball at home. It doesn’t seem to matter who John Farrell puts in the lineup these days, as everyone on the team is hitting the ball well. They come into tonight’s game with the highest team total on the board at 5.16 runs. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, as Jon Gray has allowed a .332 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .359 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Dustin Pedroia was pulled from last night’s game with a hamstring injury, but is fully expected to play tonight.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.364 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.96 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.16 (1 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.354	0.195	0.455	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.353	0.152	0.365	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,100
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.333	0.107	0.464	SS	$4,500	SS	$4,500
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.428	0.338	0.453	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.319	0.148	0.372	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.375	0.272	0.556	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,000
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.362	0.203	0.341	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,700
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.235	0.106	0.276	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
9	Blake Swihart	SWITCH	0.314	0.120	0.206	C	$2,200	C/OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.182	0.388	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 26th

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Miami at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Chase Headley

Stackability – GPP

St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong, Matt Adams

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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