MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-14 18:44:00

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Detroit
			James Shields							Chad Bell
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-123							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.397	0.373	33.1%	12.5%	16.3%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.315	38.3%	10.5%	26.3%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.323	32.1%	8.4%	22.3%	37.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.390	0.386	42.2%	10.7%	15.1%	47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 23	Salary Rank:		10 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23
	2016	33	5.12	5.85	16.4%	10.0%	40.4%	33.8%	15.3%
	2017	18	5.09	5.40	19.1%	10.6%	38.4%	32.7%	18.2%
	L30	6	4.50	4.29	22.8%	10.3%	43.8%	27.8%	19.6%

There are four early games on the schedule, three of which are included in the early-only slate. The Rockies/Diamondbacks game is included in the all-day slates, so we will cover that one as well. We start our day with a familiar face in James Shields. He’s been around longer than DFS and he’s been a punching bag for most of that time. In 18 starts this season, he has a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 11%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. While I’ve been streaming pitchers against the Tigers recently, all good things must come to an end.

Quick Breakdown: Shields should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Bell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 23	Salary Rank:		19 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23

	2017	2	4.66	5.79	18.7%	10.6%	47.2%	41.1%	16.6%
	L30	2	5.11	6.00	19.4%	13.9%	51.1%	34.0%	19.2%

Bell is a southpaw that is making this third career major league start tonight against the White Sox. He’s not a top pitching prospect by any means, posting a 3.63 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22 starts at the Triple-A level this season. He’s basically a minor league journeyman that is getting a few starts since the Tigers have nothing to play for. I love to root for players in these situations, but I don’t target them in DFS. The Tigers are slight favorites today against the White Sox, but the game features a massive total of 10.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Both pitchers in this game can be avoided in what I expect to be a shootout.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

This game features two of the worst offenses in baseball and the total is set at 10.0 runs. That tells you all you need to know about these two pitchers. Chad Bell has been in the minor leagues a long time (28 years old) and hasn’t done anything that really stands out. He has struggled with his command in his first two major league starts and has allowed a .386 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Much like yesterday’s game, I will be loading up on the righties in the White Sox lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.345	0.305	0.171	30.2%	1.4%	24.3%	50.0%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.233	0.202	0.114	26.9%	8.2%	36.7%	50.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.459	0.419	0.292	40.8%	7.7%	18.9%	45.6%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.438	0.332	0.167	40.9%	4.2%	18.3%	52.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.328	0.319	0.222	30.3%	5.6%	31.5%	28.8%	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Kevan Smith	RIGHT	0.254	0.278	0.120	22.1%	1.0%	13.6%	61.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.291	0.240	0.140	17.4%	5.8%	23.1%	42.0%	2B	$4,200	2B/3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Rymer Liriano	RIGHT	0.438		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%			OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.292	0.243	0.147	21.7%	7.9%	28.9%	42.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers may have the best matchup in the early slate. James Shields has flashed some decent form recently, but I’m trusting the larger sample size here. He has a high walk rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .373 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .323 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. When it comes to BvP, Miguel Cabrera leads the way. He is 24-for-67 with three home runs and ten doubles against Shields in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.292	0.308	0.136	34.9%	8.9%	13.9%	35.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.327	0.300	0.090	31.5%	6.0%	17.9%	47.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.292	0.380	0.150	44.1%	9.3%	20.3%	40.6%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.307	0.347	0.169	44.3%	6.5%	23.9%	37.1%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.296	0.270	0.125	28.6%	9.3%	24.1%	45.7%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.286	0.292	0.140	39.0%	11.7%	32.1%	32.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.289	0.308	0.118	40.7%	6.5%	27.4%	36.8%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.234	0.228	0.082	28.6%	10.1%	37.7%	55.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.300	0.267	0.128	29.4%	4.3%	14.7%	52.4%	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Alex Presley, Jeimer Candelario, Tyler Collins, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Boston
			Daniel Gossett							Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-210							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.329	26.4%	8.4%	14.7%	49.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.308	33.3%	9.6%	28.2%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.371	35.7%	6.2%	21.2%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.308	31.9%	9.2%	23.3%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Gossett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 23	Salary Rank:		13 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23

	2017	14	4.56	5.02	18.5%	7.1%	44.5%	31.6%	16.8%
	L30	4	4.40	4.64	24.2%	11.1%	43.5%	35.9%	17.2%

Gossett hasn’t been great in his rookie season, but he’s known as a pitcher that can adapt and continuously improve. He was never considered to be a top pitching prospect, yet here he is making his 15th start of the season. For DFS purposes, he’s one of the easiest fades in the slate, as he squares off against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Not only is this one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, but Boston has the second lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gossett should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 23	Salary Rank:		4 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23
	2016	30	3.80	3.32	26.5%	9.3%	46.2%	31.5%	19.1%
	2017	28	4.21	3.35	24.5%	9.3%	42.5%	32.2%	21.3%
	L30	6	4.60	3.31	23.3%	11.0%	41.3%	32.3%	19.4%

If you are playing the early slate on a multi-pitcher site, get ready for chalk city at the position. Drew Pomeranz and Luke Weaver are clearly the top plays, which should lead to concentrated ownership, especially given the lack of viable alternatives. Pomeranz has quietly pitched well all season, posting a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. We know the A’s have some firepower in their lineup, but they also have one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. Pomeranz is a large favorite and he should see plenty of run support.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is an elite play in all formats, even though he’ll be popular.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are a boom or bust offense that is playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There is certainly a chance that they could hit a couple of home runs, but I’m not banking on it. They draw a difficult matchup against Drew Pomeranz, who has an above-average strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. Jed Lowrie and Khris Davis are intriguing tournament plays, but I will have more exposure to Pomeranz than I will to this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.294	0.279	0.108	38.5%	11.9%	26.2%	40.4%	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.315	0.359	0.179	29.3%	9.0%	24.7%	36.2%	OF	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.317	0.329	0.136	28.7%	11.2%	19.2%	42.5%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.301	0.364	0.192	49.3%	15.7%	31.5%	41.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.388	0.335	0.241	31.1%	4.1%	21.5%	38.9%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.374	0.344	0.290	40.9%	11.4%	25.7%	45.5%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.332	0.349	0.194	37.5%	10.0%	32.9%	22.5%	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.284	0.246	0.151	23.7%	3.5%	26.3%	28.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Dustin Garneau	RIGHT	0.285	0.279	0.200	26.3%	6.6%	29.5%	27.0%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox were a disappointment last night. Who could have seen that coming? Well, if you were paying attention all year, then the answer is all of us. They have routinely let us down in good spots. They draw another favorable matchup today at home against Daniel Gossett, who has allowed a .329 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .371 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the board. Here we go again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.316	0.265	0.140	29.7%	7.8%	19.9%	47.0%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.338	0.317	0.102	25.7%	9.4%	10.2%	48.3%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.349	0.345	0.182	36.5%	9.9%	16.5%	37.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.324	0.328	0.179	35.2%	9.8%	11.6%	40.2%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.330	0.375	0.201	38.8%	10.1%	21.3%	41.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.328	0.356	0.179	35.0%	8.4%	20.6%	41.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.328	0.296	0.212	33.7%	8.1%	22.0%	51.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.317	0.269	0.098	27.0%	5.4%	19.8%	46.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.307	0.317	0.169	37.1%	8.4%	25.0%	42.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								St. Louis
			Amir Garrett							Luke Weaver
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-200							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.388	0.330	35.3%	5.8%	28.9%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.221	0.225	18.2%	4.4%	30.4%	51.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.389	0.372	43.3%	12.0%	16.7%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.284	30.5%	8.2%	31.6%	56.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Amir Garrett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 23	Salary Rank:		22 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23

	2017	13	5.09	7.39	19.0%	10.9%	42.3%	41.9%	12.1%
	L30	1	4.40	7.20	23.8%	9.5%	42.9%	35.7%	14.3%

I read an article about Garrett the other day. It said that when he was struggling earlier in the season, he was dealing with an injury that didn’t allow him to fully turn in his delivery. This led to a drop in his velocity and ultimately to his bad performances. While I’m not fully buying into that, I did like the fact that he was throwing 95+ MPH in his last start. I also like that he struck out ten batters in his last Triple-A start before being called up to the majors again. He’s a pitcher to monitor moving forward and is actually my third favorite target in the three-game early slate.

Quick Breakdown: I’m going to eat the chalk with Pomeranz and Weaver, but Garrett is at least somewhat appealing in GPPs.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 23	Salary Rank:		1 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23
	2016	8	3.55	5.70	27.0%	7.2%	30.7%	32.4%	17.6%
	2017	6	2.99	2.16	31.1%	6.6%	54.5%	25.2%	16.5%
	L30	4	2.57	1.32	34.6%	5.6%	56.5%	25.4%	17.5%

Weaver has been terrific in his six starts this season, posting a 2.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 7%. I love high ground ball pitchers that also have a high strikeout rate because they can rack up fantasy points and get out of trouble when needed. I keep playing Weaver in every start hoping that his run doesn’t come to an end. I may be looking at it the wrong way though. This might not be some hot streak; this might be who he is. Weaver is an elite play in all formats today against the Reds.

Quick Breakdown: I’m drinking the Weaver Kool-Aid. It’s delicious and it provides great health benefits (more money in your pockets).

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher with a 31% strikeout rate and a 55% ground ball rate. I know we are still dealing with a small six game sample, but I want no part of hitters against Luke Weaver. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.418	0.360	0.226	36.7%	16.2%	17.6%	53.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.376	0.320	0.224	29.3%	12.7%	16.1%	38.6%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.426	0.431	0.256	38.4%	19.0%	10.4%	38.7%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.393	0.336	0.258	37.5%	6.6%	20.8%	39.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.362	0.355	0.202	31.4%	13.2%	21.4%	38.9%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.335	0.358	0.258	40.1%	10.5%	24.2%	43.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.315	0.284	0.231	33.0%	5.0%	27.3%	31.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.324	0.336	0.129	34.8%	10.3%	16.2%	43.7%	C	$3,300	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Amir Garrett	LEFT	0.082	0.129	0.067	0.0%	0.0%	27.8%	50.0%	P	$6,700	P	$5,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

I’m interested to see how Amir Garrett pitches down the stretch of the regular season (especially if he can maintain the velocity from his last start), but for now, I will continue to target right-handed hitters against him. On the season, he has allowed a .372 xwOBA, a 43% hard contact rate, and a 12% walk rate to batters from the right side of the plate. This should bode well for a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ offense that will likely get overlooked with the Red Sox, Tigers, and White Sox all in such favorable matchups..

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.300	0.369	0.121	36.8%	15.3%	21.0%	36.5%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.390	0.368	0.259	36.4%	14.6%	20.4%	52.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.393	0.272	0.333	36.2%	6.5%	32.5%	40.4%	SS	$3,400	2B/SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.545	0.535	0.491	41.9%	13.1%	16.4%	32.6%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.367	0.424	0.293	46.7%	4.5%	10.9%	33.3%	C	$3,500	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.317	0.380	0.100	45.7%	15.1%	19.2%	47.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.661	0.492	0.533	76.9%	0.0%	13.3%	46.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.327	0.317	0.076	30.2%	11.7%	19.5%	57.1%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Luke Weaver	RIGHT	0.219		0.000	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$9,200	P	$10,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Arizona
			Chad Bettis							Zack Godley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-165							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.378	0.316	32.7%	3.1%	16.9%	42.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.301	30.5%	10.8%	25.4%	60.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.289	26.6%	3.8%	15.0%	47.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.268	31.4%	6.6%	27.6%	51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Bettis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 23	Salary Rank:		15 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23
	2016	32	4.39	4.79	17.0%	7.3%	51.2%	30.5%	17.2%
	2017	6	4.54	4.98	15.9%	3.5%	45.0%	29.3%	18.1%
	L30	6	4.54	4.98	15.9%	3.5%	45.0%	29.3%	18.1%

Most of you can skip over this game unless you are playing in the all-day slate. Bettis has struggled a bit in his six starts this season, posting a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He typically doesn’t walk many batters and historically, he’s had a high ground ball rate. The issue is always the strikeouts. I suppose a road start against the Diamondbacks doesn’t help either.

Quick Breakdown: Bettis is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$10,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 23	Salary Rank:		3 of 23	Salary Rank:		of 23
	2016	9	4.16	6.39	17.9%	7.5%	53.8%	32.1%	17.9%
	2017	22	3.68	3.18	26.6%	8.6%	55.4%	31.0%	20.1%
	L30	6	3.81	3.86	29.3%	11.3%	55.3%	37.5%	21.6%

Godley has been one of my favorite plays in DFS this season. He continues to be under-owned, under-priced, and under-valued. I will keep playing him though, as he owns an above-average strikeout rate (27%) and an elite ground ball rate (55%). He also has a good track record against the Rockies, holding their current roster to a .267 wOBA with 14 strikeouts in 67 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is an excellent tournament play in the all-day slate and I would even consider him cash game viable.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they draw a difficult matchup against Zack Godley. As mentioned above, he has an above-average strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. We can certainly find better offenses to target in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.429	0.370	0.301	40.8%	9.4%	20.6%	34.8%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.323	0.318	0.073	26.8%	8.3%	14.0%	57.6%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.338	0.316	0.157	29.2%	12.4%	19.1%	45.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.349	0.327	0.221	35.8%	8.6%	17.9%	37.1%	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.348	0.317	0.175	38.0%	5.1%	15.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.264	0.249	0.140	34.9%	8.2%	37.0%	36.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.376	0.332	0.248	35.4%	10.3%	28.7%	41.5%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.283	0.291	0.053	19.6%	14.1%	18.7%	52.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Chad Bettis	RIGHT	0.224	0.138	0.000	0.0%	12.5%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$6,200	P	$6,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona

The Diamondbacks aren’t my favorite offense on the board, but there are some intriguing hitters in this lineup. We know that they fare much better at home than they do on the road and they draw a decent matchup against Chad Bettis, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. My plan is to load up on some of the other offenses, but you can make a case for the Diamondbacks in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.353	0.312	0.161	34.6%	7.0%	16.1%	52.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.338	0.312	0.265	41.2%	10.9%	33.9%	33.3%	C	$2,600	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.387	0.374	0.267	36.3%	13.9%	21.2%	37.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.420	0.398	0.289	44.4%	14.0%	23.1%	46.9%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,500	N/A	N/A
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.381	0.394	0.334	45.8%	10.4%	27.5%	41.4%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
6	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.315	0.314	0.156	36.8%	8.1%	18.9%	44.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.345	0.328	0.181	40.5%	11.9%	22.7%	37.0%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.352	0.326	0.154	22.7%	9.8%	16.5%	38.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.054	0.073	0.000	12.5%	2.8%	52.8%	55.6%	P	$9,400	P	$10,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Mike Foltynewicz							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-175							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.375	0.348	33.2%	10.1%	19.2%	32.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.343	29.8%	10.3%	19.1%	40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.305	23.1%	7.2%	22.3%	46.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.281	24.1%	6.1%	23.3%	54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		12 of 23	Salary Rank:		12 of 23	Salary Rank:		8 of 23
	2016	22	4.13	4.31	21.1%	6.7%	41.2%	29.8%	20.4%
	2017	27	4.58	4.74	20.8%	8.6%	39.2%	28.1%	15.9%
	L30	5	4.78	6.84	19.5%	9.8%	42.2%	24.4%	22.1%

Foltynewicz has cooled off over the last few months. His numbers as a whole don’t look that appealing. In 27 starts, he has a 4.58 SIERA with an average strikeout rate and a walk rate of 9%. He is typically good at limiting hard contact, but that’s not so easy in a road start against the Nationals. Even without Bryce Harper, their offense hasn’t skipped a beat. On the season, they are ranked fifth in team wOBA and tenth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: As a sizable underdog on the road against a talented offense, Foltynewicz is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		5 of 23	Salary Rank:		5 of 23	Salary Rank:		2 of 23
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	27	4.36	4.48	21.2%	8.2%	47.8%	27.0%	16.3%
	L30	5	3.22	3.41	27.8%	4.0%	50.0%	22.4%	20.0%

I haven’t used Roark very often this season, but tonight might be the right time to finally take the plunge. As far as pitching options go, they are few and far between in this slate. There really isn’t a clear number one. Given Roark’s recent form, he deserves to be in the conversation. In his last five starts, he has a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 4%. The Braves may not have a high strikeout rate, but they have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. If Roark can pitch around Freddie Freeman, I like his chances to pitch seven innings and pick up a win, which can’t be said about many pitchers taking the mound tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is a viable play in all formats, although we will get to my favorite pitcher here shortly.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves draw a fairly difficult matchup against Tanner Roark and they are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While Roark has struggled with left-handed hitters this season (.343 xwOBA allowed), he has held batters from both sides of the plate under a 30% hard contact rate. Outside of Freddie Freeman (.434 xwOBA against right-handed pitching), the Braves don’t offer much in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.333	0.288	0.112	24.1%	6.6%	14.4%	42.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.305	0.285	0.119	33.0%	7.4%	19.0%	43.0%	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.443	0.434	0.309	37.6%	14.6%	15.0%	34.4%	1B	$4,200	1B/3B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.344	0.345	0.210	35.6%	4.1%	23.0%	48.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.342	0.113	35.4%	11.7%	17.0%	45.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.361	0.343	0.176	39.9%	6.6%	22.6%	39.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
7	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.242	0.314	0.088	28.4%	8.8%	25.4%	64.9%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.273	0.292	0.092	28.1%	11.2%	22.1%	50.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.050	0.109	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	50.0%	46.2%	P	$7,200	P	$6,800	P	$13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals draw a favorable matchup tonight against Mike Foltynewicz, who has not been in the best of form recently. While I like their offense as a whole, they don’t really have the right personnel to attack Foltynewicz, who has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. Right-handed batters haven’t had nearly as much success against him (.305 xwOBA and a 23% hard contact rate) and the Nationals will likely have five or six righties in their lineup tonight. The only righty that I will be targeting here is Trea Turner, who has the rare speed/power combo at shortstop.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.359	0.324	0.197	26.5%	6.5%	17.5%	50.9%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,500	IF/OF	$10,800
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.366	0.308	0.147	28.2%	5.5%	21.9%	63.6%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.385	0.368	0.229	35.1%	9.1%	11.2%	33.2%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.370	0.364	0.235	38.2%	7.6%	23.0%	47.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.379	0.357	0.214	33.8%	12.8%	14.6%	35.0%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.268	0.295	0.113	29.8%	7.2%	19.0%	41.6%	C	$2,600	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
7	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.325	0.323	0.185	28.8%	10.5%	23.2%	42.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.334	0.291	0.224	34.3%	7.0%	31.8%	42.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.111	0.131	0.025	12.5%	2.1%	31.3%	75.0%	P	$8,600	P	$10,200	P	$19,600

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Alex Presley, Jeimer Candelario, Tyler Collins, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters, Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW

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