Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-16 02:15:47

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
minnesotamlb Hector Santiago detroitmlb Mike Pelfrey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -146 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.349 7 31.7% 18.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.387 7 35.6% 10.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.331 22 37.4% 18.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.362 7 25.6% 9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago
hector-santiago-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 25.7 FPPG: 12.3
Pitcher Rating: 46.9 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.4 6.18 6.11 11.1% 8.7% 6.3% 27.6% 54.1% 41.0%
2016 29 95.5 5.00 4.75 18.8% 10.4% 8.5% 36.4% 48.2% 36.2%
2015 32 98.8 4.50 3.59 20.9% 9.2% 8.5% 29.9% 53.6% 33.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.02 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.334

Happy Thursday everyone, or as I like to refer to it – happy three days before NFL day! We have two early games on the schedule today and we have four gas cans on the mound. If you are playing in the early only slate, good luck to you. The pitching options are so scarce that you will basically be looking to take the path of least resistance. Santiago will be on the mound for the Twins, as they take on the Tigers in Detroit. Santiago is having a down season overall and the Tigers are ranked at or above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. As a sizable road dog, he can be avoided in all league formats.

Mike Pelfrey
mike-pelfrey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 16.1 FPPG: 6.1
Pitcher Rating: 37.6 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 21 94.6 5.33 4.76 10.0% 8.8% 6.4% 52.9% 25.7% 30.6%
2015 30 88.8 4.59 4.26 12.0% 6.3% 5.6% 50.8% 26.4% 26.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.89 — K%: 12.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.333
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.02 — K%: 10.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.372

If you are playing in the early only slate, I recommend targeting one of the pitchers in the Indians/White Sox game. Hector Santiago is not in a good spot here and Pelfrey is going to be on a strict 60-pitch limit. Even if he pitches well, he will likely last four innings at the most which means he won’t even be eligible for the win. I’m sitting here writing all of this as if Pelfrey would have been a good play without the pitch limit. However, he’s a bad play either way. In 21 starts this season, he has a 5.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10%. While anything can happen in a baseball game, I’m expecting a shootout in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw one of the best matchups on the board today, but they come into the game with a mediocre run projection. Some of that has to do with the fact that they are playing on the road and some of that has to do with their average numbers against right-handed pitching. I’m not concerned about their ability to score runs in this matchup though, as they get to face Mike Pelfrey and a number of Tigers’ relievers. In 2016, Pelfrey has allowed a .360+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Oh yeah, Brian Dozier homered again.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.376 0.279 33.1% 0.560 2B $4,100 2B $5,500
2 Jorge Polanco RIGHT 0.304 0.107 23.6% 0.339 3B $3,100 3B/SS $3,800
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.347 0.141 30.9% 0.265 1B $3,100 1B $4,400
4 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.310 0.192 34.0% 0.416 1B $3,200 1B $4,000
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.347 0.237 33.2% 0.222 OF $2,800 OF $4,300
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.279 0.099 26.8% 0.155 SS $2,500 SS $2,800
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.311 0.183 35.6% 0.282 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.304 0.136 30.2% 0.297 C $2,400 C $2,900
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.295 0.186 22.9% 0.475 OF $3,000 OF $4,700
Team Averages — 0.319 0.173 30.0% 0.335 — — — —

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas

Secondary Plays – Jorge Polanco, Joe Mauer, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked right around the major league average in most offensive categories against left-handed pitching. They have the perfect lineup to succeed against Hector Santiago though, as their confirmed lineup has eight right-handed hitters in it. In 2016, Santiago has allowed a .331 wOBA, 22 home runs, and a 37.4% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez each have a pair of home runs against Santiago in their careers.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.374 0.220 33.3% 0.416 2B $3,500 2B $4,800
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.310 0.146 30.2% 0.294 SS $2,200 SS $2,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.404 0.230 39.8% 0.437 1B $3,900 1B $4,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.340 0.148 35.3% 0.282 C $3,100 1B $3,300
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.371 0.234 44.2% 0.323 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.314 0.195 38.8% 0.380 OF $3,300 OF $4,200
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.352 0.255 47.3% 0.244 C $2,100 C $2,600
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.113 0.091 33.3% 0.000 3B $2,000 3B/SS $2,500
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.238 0.030 17.2% 0.401 SS $2,300 OF/SS $2,900
Team Averages — 0.313 0.172 35.5% 0.309 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Cleveland Chicago White Sox
clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger whitesoxmlb James Shields
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -151 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.252 1 24.0% 24.4% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.376 14 28.7% 13.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.372 4 35.8% 20.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.394 23 39.9% 17.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 15.3 FPPG: 7.6
Pitcher Rating: 61.5 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 84.7 4.10 3.05 27.1% 12.9% 10.5% 41.2% 39.2% 29.4%
2016 7 87.3 4.79 5.01 22.1% 13.3% 9.9% 38.8% 37.9% 30.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.87 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

You know the slate is bad when Clevinger is far and away the highest projected pitcher. I usually try to shy away from him, especially on the road. However, if you are playing in the early only slate, you really don’t have any other options unless you want to roll the dice with James Shields. Clevinger comes into the game in good form, posting a 3.05 ERA (4.10 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 27.1% in the last 30 days. The main concern is his pitch count and his command. He only threw 62 pitches in his last start and he has walked close to 13% of the batters that he has faced in the last two seasons. In all honesty, you are hoping for five innings from Clevinger with a lead. Anything beyond that would be icing on the cake.

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,800
FPPG: 18.9 FPPG: 7.9
Pitcher Rating: 47.1 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 90.0 5.35 8.68 15.8% 10.8% 8.2% 38.0% 40.0% 37.0%
2016 29 93.7 5.25 6.01 15.4% 10.0% 8.8% 40.7% 38.0% 34.5%
2015 33 101.1 3.72 3.91 25.1% 9.4% 12.4% 44.9% 34.4% 31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 21.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.363
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.52 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.353

Shields has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season (must have 20 starts to qualify). He currently owns a 5.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.4% and a walk rate of 10%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a 34.5% hard contact rate this season. He comes into today’s game as a sizable underdog against the Indians at home. This is not an ideal matchup by any means, as Cleveland is ranked fifth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. With all of that said, he doesn’t have a pitch count like Mike Pelfrey or Mike Clevinger. He also has a very nice track record against Cleveland.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest run projection on the board today, so they obviously have the highest team total in the early only slate. They have mashed right-handed pitching as a team this season and draw an exploitable matchup against James Shields. In addition to the 37 home runs that Shields has allowed this season, he has given up a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .394 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.370 0.274 38.2% 0.388 1B $3,900 1B $5,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.350 0.202 38.4% 0.333 2B $3,700 2B $4,900
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.361 0.144 26.5% 0.342 SS $3,600 SS $4,500
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.344 0.251 35.3% 0.299 1B $3,800 1B $4,300
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.355 0.142 25.5% 0.361 3B $3,100 3B/OF $4,500
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.347 0.163 28.4% 0.351 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
7 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.317 0.150 27.2% 0.219 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.385 0.255 41.5% 0.341 OF $2,900 OF $3,900
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.265 0.114 23.0% 0.297 C $2,400 C $2,700
Team Averages — 0.344 0.188 31.6% 0.326 — — — —

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season, although their offense has been trending in the right direction in the last month of play. Even though Mike Clevinger is my favorite pitching option in the early only slate, there are still a few viable plays in this White Sox lineup. Clevinger has some serious reverse-splits, allowing a .372 wOBA and a 35.8% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.354 0.168 31.9% 0.458 OF $3,600 OF $5,200
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.293 0.124 30.5% 0.301 SS $2,900 SS $4,200
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.328 0.132 28.9% 0.366 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.351 0.158 31.3% 0.424 1B $3,400 1B $5,300
5 Justin Morneau LEFT 0.309 0.170 27.9% 0.275 1B $2,500 1B $3,300
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.225 30.9% 0.348 3B $3,500 3B $4,000
7 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.302 0.130 33.2% 0.298 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.318 0.158 33.8% 0.239 C $2,400 C $3,200
9 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.304 0.147 21.6% 0.351 SS $3,100 2B/SS $4,000
Team Averages — 0.319 0.157 30.0% 0.340 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Philadelphia
pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -107 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.359 4 36.6% 14.8% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.345 14 31.2% 16.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.290 2 28.6% 17.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.280 8 30.3% 23.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 20.1 FPPG: 9.8
Pitcher Rating: 56.9 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 81.6 4.41 4.26 15.9% 6.5% 10.3% 51.9% 27.2% 28.4%
2016 10 81.4 4.81 4.09 16.0% 7.6% 8.9% 44.2% 36.5% 32.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.91 — K%: 12.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.391
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.269

The first game in the main slate is between the Pirates and Phillies. After losing seven of their last ten games, the Pirates are basically out of postseason contention with only 18 games to play. They would basically need to win 16 games and then get some help. Kuhl has not been great in his first ten major league starts, posting a 4.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, but as I warned last night with Steven Brault, matchup isn’t everything. Kuhl doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the mistakes that he will likely make tonight on the road.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,500
FPPG: 29.4 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 69.8 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 88.7 4.86 3.53 17.6% 6.1% 8.3% 25.7% 48.6% 26.8%
2016 29 93.0 4.19 3.73 19.8% 5.5% 9.3% 40.0% 38.5% 30.8%
2015 8 92.4 3.56 2.65 24.1% 6.4% 10.4% 37.9% 40.0% 36.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 23.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.88 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Eickhoff has pitched well this season for the Phillies, posting a 3.73 ERA (4.19 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19.8%. He has been much better at home than he has on the road in his career, so give him a small boost tonight against the Pirates. In terms of the matchup, Pittsburgh is ranked 18th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. I see Eickhoff as a deep tournament play on FanDuel and as a borderline SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. After having high hopes a few weeks ago, it feels like they are driving on a few flat tires at this point. They are just limping through the last month of the season. Their matchup against Jerad Eickhoff isn’t ideal, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters. In 2016, Eickhoff has allowed a .345 wOBA and 14 home runs to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.351 0.170 34.7% 0.462 SS $2,300 2B/OF $3,300
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.382 0.167 36.1% 0.310 1B $2,700 1B/OF $2,700
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.322 0.163 36.0% 0.338 OF $3,700 OF $3,800
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.338 0.212 37.4% 0.209 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.379 0.275 41.4% 0.591 3B $3,500 3B $5,100
6 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.394 0.253 38.3% 0.329 OF $2,200 OF $3,600
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.292 0.046 23.4% 0.345 C $2,800 C $3,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.294 0.103 25.1% 0.254 SS $2,300 SS $3,000
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% P $6,600 P $6,300
Team Averages — 0.306 0.154 30.3% 0.355 — — — —

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

If I were forced to stack a team in this game, I would side with the Phillies. While their offense has been dreadful this season, they draw the more exploitable matchup of the two. Chad Kuhl is a low strikeout pitcher that has struggled to find his footing at the major league level. In his first ten starts, Kuhl has allowed a .359 wOBA and a 36.6% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.331 0.123 26.9% 0.357 2B $3,400 2B $4,400
2 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.486 0.143 0.0% 0.468 OF $2,800
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.289 0.156 28.2% 0.310 3B $2,800 3B $3,500
4 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.296 0.254 45.3% 0.211 1B $2,600 1B $3,300
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.310 0.175 32.8% 0.274 C $2,700 C $3,400
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.184 28.7% 0.333 SS $2,600 SS $4,300
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.349 0.157 30.8% 0.294 OF $2,900 OF $4,500
8 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.266 0.096 30.1% 0.265 OF $2,400 OF $3,800
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.189 0.073 8.8% 0.000 P $8,000 P $7,500
Team Averages — 0.313 0.151 25.7% 0.279 — — — —

Elite Plays – Roman Quinn (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Blake Snell baltimoremlb Yovani Gallardo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -132 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.296 0 32.6% 24.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.360 7 28.8% 18.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.337 5 31.4% 23.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.343 8 27.2% 12.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $5,500
FPPG: 27.8 FPPG: 13.7
Pitcher Rating: 68.8 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 89.0 4.84 4.87 24.7% 14.4% 11.9% 23.7% 40.7% 37.3%
2016 16 93.5 4.67 3.62 23.6% 12.9% 10.4% 36.7% 35.3% 31.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.38 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.98 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Snell has a high strikeout rate, but he continues to struggle with consistency. I suppose you could say that he is consistent at being inconsistent. On the season, he has a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.6% and a walk rate of 12.9%. Tonight he draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Orioles, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. The bust part of the equation is the fact that they have by far the most home runs of any team in baseball. As an underdog on the road pitching in a tough environment, Snell is an easy fade.

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 18.7 FPPG: 8.0
Pitcher Rating: 41.8 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.4 5.56 6.29 11.7% 10.8% 6.3% 51.2% 30.2% 24.4%
2016 20 91.3 5.46 5.44 15.3% 11.6% 6.4% 43.3% 37.3% 27.8%
2015 33 97.8 4.59 3.42 15.3% 8.6% 6.5% 49.3% 28.7% 25.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 14.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.331
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.62 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Gallardo is basically the Bachelor/Bachelorette of primetime television – he sucks but for some reason people (the Orioles) have an affinity for him. In 20 starts this season, he has a 5.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.3% and a walk rate of 11.6%. He draws a decent matchup against the Rays, although they have some sneaky power as a team against right-handed pitching (fourth in team ISO). Given his lack of upside and the fact that he is facing them in a home run-friendly ballpark, Gallardo is an easy fade tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays may not have the highest run projection in the slate, but they have been red-hot at the plate and they get to face a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In addition to a high walk rate, Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. He may not give up a lot of hard contact, but I like the upside that the Rays provide at low ownership.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.347 0.182 35.9% 0.383 2B $3,300 2B $4,700
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.326 0.176 32.0% 0.491 OF $3,700 OF $4,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.352 0.247 38.2% 0.184 3B $3,400 3B $4,200
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.343 0.261 36.2% 0.211 SS $3,100 1B/SS $4,400
5 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.385 0.222 37.0% 0.277 2B $2,800 1B/OF $4,400
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.327 0.253 30.4% 0.420 OF $3,200 OF $4,300
7 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.312 0.170 29.7% 0.406 OF $3,100 OF $4,800
8 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.240 0.092 22.1% 0.254 SS $2,300 SS $3,400
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.256 0.105 24.1% 0.276 C $2,100 C $3,400
Team Averages — 0.321 0.190 31.7% 0.322 — — — —

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but they still have the eighth highest run projection in the slate. There are better matchups to target hitters against tonight, but Blake Snell has allowed a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. He also walks a lot of hitters, so if the Orioles can do what they do best (hit home runs), it could happen with players on base.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.252 0.106 32.4% 0.329 OF $3,300 OF $4,400
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.276 0.152 22.1% 0.235 2B $3,300 2B $3,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.395 0.219 37.1% 0.384 3B $3,900 3B/SS $4,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.271 0.234 36.3% 0.306 OF $3,000 OF $4,100
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.324 0.207 33.0% 0.433 1B $3,600 1B $5,000
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.253 0.076 33.3% 0.340 C $2,500 C $3,800
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.317 0.185 43.9% 0.405 SS $2,800 SS $3,600
8 Drew Stubbs RIGHT 0.281 0.070 33.3% 0.209 OF $3,300
9 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.270 0.124 26.5% 0.447 OF $2,300 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.293 0.153 33.1% 0.343 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Boston
nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -115 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.268 9 34.1% 21.8% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.329 1 17.0% 21.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.278 9 32.8% 20.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.311 14 29.6% 18.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,600
FPPG: 34.6 FPPG: 18.8
Pitcher Rating: 71.6 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 93.8 3.11 2.01 26.1% 2.6% 11.7% 44.8% 35.2% 27.8%
2016 29 94.6 3.67 3.04 21.3% 4.1% 11.1% 47.5% 30.6% 33.4%
2015 24 95.4 3.36 3.51 22.8% 4.4% 11.4% 47.0% 33.8% 31.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.79 — K%: 22.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.294
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.63 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.262

Tanaka has been terrific in his last six starts, posting a 2.01 ERA (3.11 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 26.1%. It’s impressive that the Yankees are still in the playoff hunt at this point and they have to look at it like they are playing with house money. This series could go a long way in determining which teams make the postseason in the American League. While I like the Yankees’ chances to win this game, I’m not a fan of Tanaka in DFS. The Red Sox have the highest wOBA of any team in baseball and we know what they can do at home.

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,900
FPPG: 22.7 FPPG: 11.7
Pitcher Rating: 65.6 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 92.5 4.92 2.70 19.4% 10.8% 11.1% 41.3% 47.6% 23.4%
2016 16 92.9 4.74 4.70 19.0% 8.6% 10.0% 33.3% 44.2% 27.1%
2015 21 95.7 4.16 3.85 18.8% 7.1% 7.8% 43.0% 33.4% 31.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.51 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.87 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

Rodriguez will be making his 17th start of the season. He has been mediocre thus far, posting a 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 8.6%. He draws the more favorable matchup of the two starting pitchers in this game, but he’s still not a recommended fantasy option. When these two teams meet up, there are typically a lot of runs scored. Rodriguez also has limited strikeout upside in this matchup, as the Yankees have the third lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees come into tonight’s game with a mediocre projection of 4.41 runs. Their matchup is a favorable one by most accounts, as they square off against Eduardo Rodriguez in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The main concern here is the lack of hard contact that Rodriguez allows. In his last four starts, he has a hard contact rate of only 23.4%.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.285 0.070 22.1% 0.275 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.264 0.087 25.6% 0.385 OF $2,800 OF $4,000
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.225 0.207 41.2% 0.304 C $3,800 C $5,000
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.313 0.163 29.1% 0.322 2B $3,000 2B $4,000
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.294 0.091 32.1% 0.291 1B $2,100 1B $3,600
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.150 22.8% 0.160 SS $3,100 SS $3,300
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.303 0.087 27.1% 0.325 3B $2,300 3B $3,400
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.161 0.000 60.0% 0.350 1B $2,300 1B $2,800
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.323 0.089 28.3% 0.309 1B $2,200 1B/OF $3,500
Team Averages — 0.279 0.105 32.0% 0.302 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Rex Sox are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and first in team wOBA over the last 30 days. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, but they draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. In 2016, Masahiro Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. He has also done a nice job of limiting hard contact in his last six starts. While I expect this game to be high scoring, I’m having a hard time predicting where the production will come from.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.367 0.136 34.5% 0.397 2B $3,600 2B $4,300
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.338 0.141 28.9% 0.276 SS $3,800 SS $3,900
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.441 0.357 46.6% 0.411 1B $4,300 1B $5,500
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.382 0.220 33.8% 0.243 OF $4,100 OF $5,100
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.334 0.172 36.1% 0.435 1B $3,300 1B $4,300
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.341 0.191 37.6% 0.450 3B $2,900 1B/3B $4,500
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.369 0.167 38.4% 0.359 C $2,700 C $3,600
8 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.411 0.216 33.3% OF $2,900 OF $2,600
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.383 0.270 39.7% 0.307 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
Team Averages — 0.374 0.208 36.5% 0.360 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious