MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-19 02:30:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox						NY Yankees
			Miguel Gonzalez						Luis Severino
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-190						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	29.2%	8.2%	17.0%	40.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	25.4%	7.6%	22.7%	47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	27.9%	4.9%	17.4%	40.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	32.6%	7.5%	23.4%	42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Miguel Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	2016-17	25	4.59	3.77	17.2%	6.6%	40.3%	28.6%	17.6%

Happy Tuesday everyone. This usually isn’t a joyous day for most people, but it’s one of the only days during the week where we have a full MLB slate that isn’t split up between day games and evening games. Gonzalez has an ERA under 4.00 in the last two seasons, but we shouldn’t buy into it. His SIERA and xFIP are much higher and his strikeout rate of 17% doesn’t give him enough upside. The Yankees’ offense is a lot better than it was a year ago and Gonzalez has to face them on the road in Yankee Stadium.

Quick Breakdown: Fade, fade, fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016-17	13	3.77	5.64	23.1%	7.5%	44.7%	29.2%	20.7%

Severino has all of the tools needed to be an above-above major league pitcher. He has an electric fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He’s allowed a lot of runs in his first 13 major league starts, but his peripheral stats suggest some positive regression could be in store moving forward. During that same stretch, Severino has a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He has shown decent command and he’s been able to limit the hard contact against him. I’m a big fan of right-handed pitchers facing the White Sox, as they have an extremely low team wOBA against righties with a high strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown:One of my favorite value pitchers in the slate. Viable in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox offense can hit left-handed pitching a little, but their lineup is not built to face righties. If you look at the table below, you will see almost exclusively yellow and red boxes. You can make a case for the right-handed hitters here, as Severino has shown some reverse splits in his first 13 major league starts, but I will be looking elsewhere in a 15 game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.299	0.131	22.3%	4.3%	20.8%	49.7%	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,900
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.292	0.146	30.4%	2.9%	27.1%	50.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.337	0.154	28.4%	7.8%	9.9%	43.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,800
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.340	0.151	30.7%	6.1%	17.7%	45.4%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.319	0.227	31.4%	9.4%	23.0%	38.0%	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.258	0.122	32.2%	7.4%	25.5%	38.7%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,200
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.316	0.137	30.2%	6.9%	25.9%	53.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.275	0.032	14.8%	11.3%	12.3%	43.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Jacob May	SWITCH	0.042	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	47.1%	87.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Miguel Gonzalez isn’t nearly as good as his ERA suggests, but he doesn’t give up a lot of contact. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. On the plus side, he doesn’t strike many batters out and the Yankees’ lefties see a bump with the short porch in right field. The Yankees are serviceable options, but are best suited as a stack instead of individual targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.335	0.106	25.9%	13.2%	16.2%	51.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.318	0.164	30.5%	3.6%	19.1%	50.3%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.338	0.189	35.0%	9.9%	17.6%	51.5%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.329	0.129	27.5%	9.5%	12.3%	47.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
5	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.333	0.167	31.8%	11.0%	26.0%	42.1%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
6	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.316	0.242	49.2%	7.3%	37.6%	40.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.114	0.038	38.5%	10.3%	44.8%	33.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,400
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.271	0.145	25.0%	5.5%	19.8%	40.3%	C	$2,800	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.315	0.158	22.6%	2.6%	9.8%	48.5%	3B	$2,600	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston		Toronto
	Brian Johnson				Marcus Stroman
	LEFT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	TOR-170				8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	34.4%	7.1%	18.8%	60.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	29.4%	5.4%	19.5%	59.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	SIERA	ERA	BB%	GB%	SC%
Brian Johnson
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:	$5,700	Salary:	$4,200	Salary:	$8,400
	Salary Rank:	28 of 30	Salary Rank:	29 of 30	Salary Rank:	29 of 30

Johnson is making his major league debut tonight against the Blue Jays. He was drafted in the first round in the 2012 draft and has shown some nice strikeout potential in the minors. He is a big lefty with a fastball in the low 90s and some decent breaking pitches. He draws a difficult matchup right out of the gate, as he has to face the Blue Jays on the road in the Rogers Centre. With so many options in the slate, it doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Johnson.

Quick Breakdown:He’s cheap, but the risk outweighs potential reward.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016-17	34	3.60	4.19	19.2%	6.2%	59.9%	32.0%	18.2%

Stroman is a pitcher that I love to use in smaller slates. He doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, but he is a pitcher that we can generally rely on to pitch six or more innings and give his team a chance to win the game. He induces an elite ground ball rate close to 60% and his strikeout rate is just below the major league average. The issue with Stroman tonight is his matchup. The Red Sox don’t strike out often and they take a ton of pitches. Stroman isn’t a bad play tonight, but there are better matchups to exploit.

Quick Breakdown:Viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

When it comes to Marcus Stroman, there is very little to like from a matchup perspective. He has an elite ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters and a decent strikeout rate. The only thing that I can see here is Stroman’s 34% hard contact allowed to lefties. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are viable one-off targets in tournaments, as they both have high fly ball rates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.129	33.3%	7.3%	10.1%	50.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.389	0.207	34.7%	8.7%	13.5%	31.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.385	0.200	33.2%	7.1%	10.6%	42.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,300
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.338	0.178	37.1%	9.3%	19.3%	49.3%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.308	0.194	38.9%	7.4%	23.0%	39.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.342	0.139	29.2%	7.0%	17.0%	46.7%	SS	$3,400	3B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,600
7	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.237	0.200	50.0%	7.7%	30.8%	33.3%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
8	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.330	0.177	40.5%	9.1%	21.0%	32.2%	P	$5,500	P	$4,300	LF	$5,400
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.312	0.132	34.2%	5.9%	26.6%	44.8%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600	C	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Trying to predict what will happen in a pitcher’s major league debut is tough. Will the nerves get to them? Will it take a time or two through the order for the offense to figure out some of his pitches? These are all unknowns at this point. What we do know is that the Blue Jays are very good against left-handed pitching and that they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. All of the righties in this lineup are in play and you can certainly consider a stack here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.296	0.117	31.8%	1.9%	15.7%	36.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
2	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.392	0.269	43.5%	12.3%	22.6%	34.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	1B	$6,800
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.324	0.196	38.8%	14.2%	15.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.395	0.236	37.9%	5.4%	19.0%	35.9%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.326	0.161	32.3%	9.8%	17.4%	41.7%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.318	0.139	46.1%	17.1%	28.6%	43.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.291	0.149	37.8%	8.7%	19.4%	40.5%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.345	0.106	29.2%	7.8%	13.9%	43.2%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.270	0.096	24.1%	0.0%	21.0%	44.6%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia						NY Mets
			Zach Eflin						Zack Wheeler
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-165						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.388	35.1%	6.8%	6.8%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.428	33.3%	10.0%	15.0%	46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	31.2%	5.7%	15.7%	34.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.195	13.3%	0.0%	25.0%	66.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016-17	11	5.41	5.54	11.4%	6.3%	36.2%	33.2%	17.5%

Eflin has not fared well in his 11 starts in the last two seasons. He has a 5.41 SIERA with a low strikeout rate. He is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a fair amount of hard contact. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road against a talented Mets’ offense. We don’t need to spend a ton of time on Eflin in a 15 game slate.

Quick Breakdown:Avoid in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2016-17	2	3.28	7.45	20.0%	5.0%	56.7%	23.3%	26.7%

Wheeler has allowed eight runs in his first two starts of the season, but there are some encouraging signs. He has all of the tools to be a great pitcher, he just needs to learn how to put it all together. Seeing as how he just faced the Phillies in his last start, he should know how to attack this lineup. I’m a big fan of Wheeler in general and believe he will really start to impress people in the next few weeks. I’m willing to buy in on him early, as his price and ownership are only going to increase from here on out. Wheeler will likely only throw 85-90 pitches, but that’s more than enough to reach and exceed value in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown:Elite GPP play and can potentially be used as an SP2 in cash games depending on your risk tolerance.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate. I’m relying less on Vegas this season, but I agree with them in this one. With 15 games on tap tonight, there are certainly better matchups that we can exploit. If you absolutely have to target the Phillies’ offense tonight, Zack Wheeler has allowed a .339 wOBA to lefties in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.337	0.121	26.5%	11.1%	18.4%	53.5%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,000	2B	$6,000
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.317	0.139	34.8%	7.5%	17.7%	58.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.361	0.159	28.8%	9.6%	19.6%	42.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.297	0.156	29.5%	6.6%	16.4%	44.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.325	0.191	37.0%	10.9%	27.3%	39.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.314	0.225	35.1%	5.1%	23.2%	40.2%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
7	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.301	0.172	32.4%	6.4%	27.0%	48.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.300	0.179	27.7%	4.7%	23.1%	40.2%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.200	0.067	40.0%	0.0%	33.3%	70.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,100	P	$10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Time to break out the Mets’ lefties stack. In his 11 career starts, Zach Eflin has allowed a .388 wOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. He also has the same walk rate (6.8%) and strikeout rate against lefties, which is pretty incredible. The top five batters in this lineup are all viable tonight. Four of them can hit from the left side and Yoenis Cespedes has been red-hot at the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.343	0.229	36.6%	13.1%	20.0%	35.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.341	0.202	35.0%	6.4%	18.3%	34.9%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.352	0.250	38.4%	7.8%	20.9%	36.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.371	0.288	39.6%	9.0%	19.6%	35.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.314	0.153	34.2%	9.0%	19.6%	35.7%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
6	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.328	0.199	36.0%	10.9%	22.4%	33.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.269	0.118	24.7%	6.7%	20.4%	36.2%	3B	$2,100	3B	$4,000	SS	$7,800
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.290	0.090	31.6%	6.5%	17.2%	52.0%	C	$3,100	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.229	0.000	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	P	$7,300	P	$7,800	P	$15,000

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit						Tampa Bay
			Michael Fulmer						Matt Andriese
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TB -115						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	31.1%	7.5%	18.5%	47.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	34.9%	6.0%	19.6%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	30.7%	5.3%	23.1%	49.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	35.4%	4.2%	21.4%	44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$17,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016-17	28	4.00	3.00	20.6%	6.5%	48.7%	30.9%	18.8%

Fulmer is a solid right-handed pitcher. In his Rookie of the Year campaign, he had an ERA close to 3.00 with a strikeout rate just north of 20%. He has good command and he induces a lot of ground balls. He’s pitching on the road tonight, but the matchup and the ballpark are in his favor. He has been very tough on lefties in his career and the Rays will likely have four or five of them in their lineup tonight. Additionally, all but one of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching. I wish Fulmer was a little cheaper, but he is still a viable target in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown:Contrarian GPP play, even as an underdog on the road.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Andriese
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016-17	21	3.92	4.38	20.6%	5.1%	42.4%	35.1%	17.0%

Andriese has been a quality starter for the Rays in the last two seasons, posting a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 20%. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he does give up a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. If this game was being played in Detroit, I wouldn’t want any part of Andriese, but think he makes a lot of sense as a tournament play tonight at home. He has a 21% strikeout rate against righties, which should help him get through the top of the Tigers’ order. I’m a fan of both pitchers in this game, especially for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown:Viable in GPPs, especially on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Matt Andriese has had the slightest of reverse splits, allowing a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Miguel Cabrera is finally starting to heat up and can pop at any time, but this isn’t my favorite game to target for offensive production. The Tigers are small underdogs in a game that features a low total of 7.5 runs. In my eyes, you can take a shot on Cabrera or Nick Castellanos as one-offs for tournaments or just avoid the Tigers’ offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.346	0.182	34.3%	6.6%	17.0%	34.0%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.374	0.216	38.8%	7.0%	24.0%	31.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.400	0.258	41.4%	10.3%	16.6%	40.6%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.340	0.184	40.6%	8.0%	15.5%	36.7%	C	$2,600	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.341	0.233	38.1%	8.5%	27.9%	40.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.348	0.172	35.7%	7.5%	25.2%	33.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.228	0.074	28.9%	5.4%	27.6%	42.4%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.284	0.121	26.1%	6.0%	22.3%	46.8%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,100	SS	$4,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.273	0.061	14.1%	4.8%	10.7%	55.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Michael Fulmer has a league-average strikeout rate, low walk rate, and a low hard contact rate. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller all hit the ball hard against righties, but all three are deep tournament targets at best. Most of my exposure to this game is going to come from the pitching side of things.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.336	0.261	31.3%	6.6%	23.3%	34.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.308	0.151	29.8%	9.5%	17.0%	45.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.357	0.257	36.9%	6.3%	22.0%	31.9%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.252	35.9%	8.0%	25.5%	44.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500	SS	$6,800
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.330	0.178	31.5%	8.2%	31.1%	41.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.326	0.199	36.1%	8.4%	22.1%	42.8%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.233	0.136	31.8%	6.7%	34.1%	37.3%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
8	Shane Peterson	LEFT	0.690	1.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%			OF	$2,300	LF	$4,500
9	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.269	0.174	36.3%	4.3%	30.7%	45.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore						Cincinnati
			Kevin Gausman						Bronson Arroyo
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-150						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	31.8%	6.0%	22.8%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	20.0%	10.5%	10.5%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	28.8%	7.3%	21.9%	48.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.568	30.4%	3.7%	11.1%	33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016-17	33	3.92	3.63	22.3%	6.8%	43.9%	30.1%	19.2%

Gausman is very sneaky tonight. Everyone is going to be scared off by the fact that he is playing in Cincinnati and I suppose that concern is justified. However, he gets a boost playing in a National League ballpark (getting to face the opposing pitcher) and outside of Joey Votto, the Reds aren’t a scary offense. If Gausman can strike batters out and keep it on the ground, he could end up having a very nice outing. His price is cheap across the industry and he boasts a 22% strikeout rate since the start of last season.

Quick Breakdown:Sneaky tournament play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bronson Arroyo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30
	2016-17	2	5.47	9.90	10.9%	6.5%	36.1%	26.3%	7.9%

Arroyo is not very good at baseball, Great American Ballpark is one of the best in the majors for home runs, and the Orioles hit as many home runs as any team in baseball. This is not shaping up to be a very good night for Arroyo. Anything can happen in baseball, but we have to put ourselves in the best possible chances to succeed. There is more risk than potential reward with Arroyo, especially in a matchup against Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown:Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Bronson Arroyo has had a SIERA of at least 4.00 in each of his last nine seasons in the majors and is nearing the end of his career. The Orioles may not get to utilize the DH in a National League ballpark, but still have the highest implied run total in the slate. This is a great ballpark for home runs and we know the Orioles will try to take advantage. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but Arroyo has been significantly worse against lefties (.354 wOBA) than he has been against righties (.295 wOBA) in his career. Take advantage of the great matchup and load up on Orioles in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.346	0.188	34.3%	11.1%	20.1%	46.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.339	0.194	33.1%	5.9%	16.0%	44.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.357	0.250	34.9%	6.6%	18.5%	36.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,600
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.358	0.271	42.4%	14.1%	33.4%	36.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.383	0.291	38.6%	7.9%	25.0%	38.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$8,800
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.304	0.124	34.5%	6.3%	27.6%	40.2%	C	$2,800	C	$3,800	C	$7,500
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.331	0.198	28.1%	2.9%	19.6%	43.0%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.294	0.124	31.1%	4.4%	16.7%	45.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
9	Ubaldo Jimenez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	33.3%	P	$6,700	P	$6,000	P	$12,000

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Welington Castillo, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Kevin Gausman has some serious reverse-splits, holding lefties to a .287 wOBA but giving up a .344 wOBA to right-handed hitters. That doesn’t exactly bode well for the Reds, whose best hitter (Joey Votto) is left-handed. You can still look to Votto as a one-off target in tournaments, but this isn’t a great matchup. The most intriguing play here is Adam Duvall, who has a 38% hard contact rate against righties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.304	0.080	18.1%	8.2%	19.2%	46.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.309	0.069	17.2%	1.7%	12.0%	44.0%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.418	0.253	41.0%	17.1%	15.5%	37.6%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.337	0.258	38.0%	6.1%	27.2%	33.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.309	0.144	34.0%	7.7%	23.8%	39.3%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.335	0.177	33.0%	7.8%	21.5%	52.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
7	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.331	0.166	29.8%	7.3%	15.9%	39.3%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.321	0.126	32.2%	9.7%	13.9%	44.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
9	Bronson Arroyo	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	P	$6,500	P	$4,000	P	$8,000

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 18th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Welington Castillo, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

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