MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-25 01:27:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 5:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Chicago White Sox
			Marco Gonzales							Chris Volstad
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-125							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.305	22.7%	5.1%	18.6%	52.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.360	0.421	26.5%	13.6%	9.1%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.386	0.379	35.1%	5.5%	20.0%	43.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.289	27.1%	3.1%	20.3%	72.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%
	2018	4	2.97	5.94	25.7%	4.1%	45.1%	41.2%	11.8%

There are four “early” games on the schedule today. FanDuel has created an early-only slate, DraftKings has this game in their Showdown contest, and FantasyDraft has avoided the early games altogether. Gonzales hasn’t been terrible so far this season. He has a high ERA (5.94), but it is accompanied by a 2.97 SIERA, a 26% strikeout rate, and a 4% walk rate. A matchup against the White Sox is far from intimidating, as their projected lineup has a .310 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The problem is that Gonzalez is more of an SP2 than an SP1 that you want to anchor your lineups around, which makes him an easy fade on FanDuel.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzales is viable in the Showdown slate on DraftKings, but that’s about it.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Volstad
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	2	4.43	4.66	13.2%	6.6%	61.7%	23.3%	15.0%
	2018	0	3.15	4.70	21.9%	9.4%	68.2%	36.4%	18.2%

Volstad has been in and out of the major leagues for many years. He’s 31 years old and made his first major league appearance back in 2008. He owns a career 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. When pitchers have such limited strikeout upside, everything else needs to line up perfectly. Unfortunately, that’s not the case today against the Mariners. Seattle has a good lineup against right-handed pitching and Volstad is facing them in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Volstad in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners’ stack didn’t go as planned last night, but we can go right back to the well in the early-only slate. They have a high implied run total, as they square off against Chris Volstad. In his career, he has allowed a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters. We shouldn’t put a ton of emphasis on the splits though, as Volstad will likely be on a pitch limit. I’m trusting the talent of the Mariners’ offense and the fact that they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.325	0.270	0.077	17.1%	4.5%	14.7%	53.5%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.326	0.294	0.133	24.9%	4.5%	15.2%	56.0%	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.372	0.396	0.196	40.1%	8.5%	12.5%	47.6%	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.392	0.394	0.282	40.1%	7.0%	22.1%	40.7%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.322	0.366	0.204	37.6%	9.3%	16.2%	30.9%	3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.378	0.348	0.225	38.0%	8.8%	23.6%	40.4%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Vogelbach	LEFT	0.341	0.390	0.148	48.6%	11.3%	30.6%	34.3%	1B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.346	0.323	0.243	39.7%	8.3%	37.8%	33.9%	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.317	0.305	0.139	28.2%	7.7%	19.8%	43.7%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Daniel Vogelbach

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw a decent matchup against Marco Gonzales. While his advanced statistics look solid, he has allowed a .379 xwOBA to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last season. Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Welington Castillo all bat from the right side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson are also intriguing, although I’m not really looking to stack the White Sox in a four-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.356	0.316	0.183	31.1%	1.7%	24.4%	50.8%	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.415	0.353	0.157	41.5%	4.9%	19.1%	56.1%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.423	0.415	0.263	42.1%	6.0%	19.7%	45.1%	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.372	0.364	0.226	39.0%	5.3%	26.5%	35.1%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.331	0.346	0.227	34.9%	7.7%	30.3%	32.6%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.265	0.246	0.106	28.9%	9.5%	34.7%	51.9%	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.174	0.221	0.156	29.4%	8.6%	42.9%	64.7%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.283	0.261	0.117	19.8%	6.8%	23.8%	41.7%	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.272	0.264	0.134	20.8%	7.5%	23.4%	38.2%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Welington Castillo (FD), Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Cleveland
			Tyler Chatwood							Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.360	0.337	28.6%	14.5%	20.2%	57.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.362	39.5%	3.3%	17.1%	39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.324	27.8%	11.2%	18.9%	57.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.359	34.1%	2.5%	18.4%	38.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%
	2018	3	5.31	4.60	24.3%	18.9%	50.0%	19.1%	21.4%

Chatwood has shown some strikeout upside in his first season with the Cubs, but that’s about it. Through three starts, he owns a 5.31 SIERA with a walk rate of 19%. He needs to improve his command or he will continue to give up runs in bunches. Today’s matchup against the Indians isn’t going to help his cause. Five of their projected starters have a walk rate of at least 10% against right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Cleveland’s lineup is loaded with left-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Chatwood here.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	26	4.17	4.98	18.6%	2.4%	39.6%	36.2%	14.0%
	2018	2	6.22	8.00	8.3%	8.3%	28.2%	38.5%	23.1%

Tomlin is not the kind of pitcher that I like to target in DFS. While he does throw a lot of strikes, he hasn’t been able to turn that into a high strikeout rate. He has an extreme fly-ball rate and he gives up a lot of hard contact, which leads to a lot of home runs allowed. In case you didn’t know, home runs are not good for a pitcher. He’s an easy fade against the Cubs in a pick ‘em game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tillman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are one of the top offenses to target in the early slate. They are facing a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. Since the beginning of last season, Josh Tomlin has allowed a .359+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Cubs are playing on the road (which guarantees ninth inning at-bats) and they get to utilize the DH in this series. A stack is certainly viable here and the first six batters in this lineup are all viable plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.304	0.263	0.141	29.1%	3.1%	18.8%	52.6%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.337	0.303	0.229	31.1%	5.9%	28.1%	47.2%	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.397	0.368	0.244	32.2%	13.1%	19.5%	38.8%	3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.375	0.408	0.221	34.3%	13.9%	12.8%	39.9%	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.346	0.321	0.199	34.1%	7.4%	24.6%	51.1%	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.356	0.369	0.281	38.0%	11.8%	29.3%	41.5%	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.343	0.340	0.264	34.4%	10.9%	34.2%	39.6%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.285	0.291	0.155	32.3%	6.6%	22.2%	39.1%	SS	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.328	0.349	0.150	27.3%	10.6%	10.6%	46.5%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland

The Indians are facing a pitcher with a high ground ball rate. Typically, this isn’t what we are looking for in an offense. With that said, Tyler Chatwood has a very high walk rate and has allowed a .337 xwOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Additionally, the Indians’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters, which should help negate Chatwood’s biggest strength. All of the left-handed hitters in this lineup are viable in the early slate — Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.334	0.355	0.230	33.6%	8.2%	14.7%	39.4%	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.292	0.308	0.172	33.0%	7.1%	20.3%	34.3%	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.391	0.358	0.268	30.8%	9.9%	10.1%	37.8%	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.366	0.368	0.177	39.1%	9.4%	12.6%	47.9%	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.369	0.391	0.261	37.5%	12.7%	20.1%	34.7%	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.373	0.386	0.229	35.1%	13.8%	22.0%	34.5%	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.285	0.270	0.137	25.4%	7.5%	27.1%	39.9%	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.267	0.282	0.078	38.3%	5.8%	26.1%	55.3%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.297	0.299	0.148	37.9%	7.9%	33.3%	45.3%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								NY Yankees
			Jose Berrios							CC Sabathia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-140							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.340	31.2%	10.3%	20.8%	37.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.287	15.4%	8.7%	20.0%	58.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.249	0.255	22.5%	3.7%	25.9%	41.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.328	30.8%	7.6%	18.5%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.29	3.89	22.6%	7.8%	39.0%	27.9%	20.4%
	2018	4	2.50	1.63	29.3%	1.0%	42.4%	19.1%	35.3%

Berrios is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. If you ever get to sit down and watch a game, turn on the Twins when he is on the mound. He has a nasty curveball that routinely makes hitters look foolish. Unfortunately, he also has a nasty matchup against the Yankees. New York’s projected lineup has a massive .360 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. To put that into perspective, the Marlins’ projected lineup has one batter (Justin Bour) with an xwOBA over .340, while the Yankees’ lineup has an average xwOBA of .360. Berrios is the most talented pitcher in the early slate, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Quick Breakdown: In a larger slate, Berrios would be an easy fade. With only four games in the early slate, he’s viable in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%
	2018	3	4.58	2.70	13.6%	5.1%	47.8%	39.1%	19.6%

Sabathia is off to a slow start this season, posting a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%. His biggest strength over the last couple of years has been his ability to induce soft contact, but that number is down significantly. Perhaps he has been the victim of a tough opening schedule, as he has faced the Blue Jays twice and the Orioles once. His matchup against the Twins is actually exploitable, as the bottom of their lineup is ripe for the picking. They have four projected starters with an xwOBA under .270 against southpaws. This sounds wild, but I actually prefer Sabathia over Jose Berrios when you factor in their salaries.

Quick Breakdown: It’s scary, but Sabathia is my favorite point-per-dollar pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Even though CC Sabathia is my favorite pitching option on the board for the early games, I still have some interest in the Twins’ offense. Sabathia has been giving up a lot of hard contact this season and the Twins have two batters that mash left-handed pitching in Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. They both own a .345+ xwOBA, a .295+ ISO, and a 36%+ hard contact rate against southpaws. This is a rare slate where I actually don’t mind playing a hitter against my pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.439	0.394	0.297	36.9%	12.8%	18.3%	40.5%	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.341	0.332	0.065	23.3%	10.1%	15.1%	58.3%	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.395	0.346	0.304	41.4%	12.4%	33.3%	37.1%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.319	0.336	0.091	32.4%	17.5%	15.0%	42.5%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
5	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.287	0.264	0.110	27.8%	2.6%	19.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.272	0.265	0.138	38.9%	9.4%	34.4%	33.3%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
7	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.360	0.310	0.175	30.9%	5.8%	14.5%	41.5%	SS	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.218	0.245	0.113	22.3%	5.5%	28.1%	46.7%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.223	0.201	0.000	42.9%	0.0%	41.7%	100.0%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the worst matchup on paper. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Jose Berrios has held right-handed hitters to a .255 xwOBA since the beginning of last season. This limits the appeal of the three big bats in the Yankees’ lineup. We can still look at the lefties here, as Berrios has allowed a .340 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. While I’m hoping the Yankees can put up some runs against Berrios, there aren’t any must plays here given the number of exploitable matchups in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.353	0.330	0.180	30.9%	11.3%	18.6%	43.6%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.438	0.443	0.349	43.9%	16.4%	30.2%	35.6%	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.371	0.317	0.251	28.1%	6.5%	10.9%	35.3%	SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.377	0.372	0.304	38.2%	10.7%	27.3%	45.5%	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.347	0.377	0.233	35.7%	5.9%	22.5%	43.3%	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	0.350	0.221	30.1%	16.4%	19.5%	42.9%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.315	0.298	0.232	40.0%	6.6%	42.6%	33.3%	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.418	0.395	0.368	48.5%	2.5%	15.0%	45.5%	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT								2B	$2,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Cincinnati
			Brandon McCarthy							Tyler Mahle
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.294	28.7%	7.1%	20.4%	43.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.433	0.420	43.2%	18.6%	17.1%	40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.316	26.0%	7.8%	17.7%	43.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.332	26.5%	4.4%	19.3%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brandon McCarthy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.55	3.98	18.8%	7.0%	42.0%	27.7%	22.7%
	2018	4	3.98	2.91	20.5%	9.1%	50.0%	25.8%	19.4%

McCarthy has been serviceable so far this season, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. Those are very mediocre numbers, but better than most of the other starters in the Braves’ rotation. McCarthy draws one of his toughest matchups to date, as he squares off against the Reds in the home run-friendly Great American Ball Park. Even though McCarthy has an above-average ground ball rate, this is a scary place to pitch.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer McCarthy over Mahle, but not sure we need to target either in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Mahle
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	4	5.53	2.70	15.2%	12.0%	52.5%	23.8%	22.2%
	2018	4	4.01	5.14	21.7%	7.6%	38.7%	40.6%	12.5%

Mahle has yet to pitch well at the major league level. In eight starts over the last two seasons, he has a SIERA close to five with a below-average strikeout rate. His profile is a bit strange, as he was a high ground ball pitcher last season and a ground ball pitcher this season. Either way, he’s an easy fade against the Braves in this ballpark. Atlanta is a high-contact offense with a couple of power hitters in Freddie Freeman and Preston Tucker.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mahle in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle and they get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. We are dealing with a small sample size, but Mahle has allowed a .420 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Preston Tucker all bat from the left side and all have good power against right-handed pitching. If you are looking to complete the stack, Ender Inciarte and Kurt Suzuki both stand out as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.326	0.290	0.105	23.5%	6.2%	13.9%	43.7%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.330	0.333	0.180	30.7%	7.3%	17.0%	37.6%	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.414	0.428	0.274	39.5%	15.0%	17.5%	32.0%	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.323	0.344	0.105	34.1%	11.3%	15.3%	46.1%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.358	0.344	0.223	32.7%	5.9%	12.1%	35.3%	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.361	0.340	0.231	44.7%	5.4%	26.8%	39.5%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.285	0.298	0.097	27.6%	9.7%	22.1%	47.7%	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.368	0.330	0.108	21.9%	14.3%	19.4%	59.7%	3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Brandon McCarthy	RIGHT	0.136	0.174	0.036	16.7%	8.8%	55.9%	50.0%	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing at home in a good ballpark, but have a low implied run total in a matchup against Brandon McCarthy. Even though he’s not a high-strikeout pitcher, he’s still a tough matchup. Since the beginning of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. Outside of Joey Votto as a low-owned one-off target in tournaments, the Reds are an easy offense to fade in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.415	0.390	0.197	37.0%	15.2%	18.3%	51.4%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.272	0.285	0.074	21.3%	3.2%	14.2%	43.7%	SS	$2,600	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.420	0.436	0.230	35.9%	18.6%	10.0%	36.9%	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.376	0.346	0.230	37.6%	6.4%	20.4%	40.3%	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.331	0.356	0.266	39.5%	9.4%	24.0%	44.5%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.325	0.336	0.141	34.5%	10.3%	16.3%	42.7%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Blandino	RIGHT	0.165	0.270	0.000	38.9%	3.7%	25.9%	50.0%	3B	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Mahle	RIGHT	0.178	0.205	0.000	27.3%	0.0%	20.0%	90.0%	P	$6,600	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.290	0.257	0.083	15.1%	9.2%	20.9%	47.9%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Philadelphia
			Robbie Ray							Vince Velasquez
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-105							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.307	48.8%	6.0%	38.9%	33.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.353	33.3%	11.8%	23.0%	43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.310	39.9%	12.4%	31.3%	40.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.342	36.9%	7.4%	22.2%	37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robbie Ray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$21,500
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	28	3.53	2.89	32.8%	10.7%	40.3%	40.4%	16.4%
	2018	4	3.70	4.98	33.0%	14.4%	33.3%	50.0%	10.0%

Ray isn’t off to the best start this season. He has had trouble with his command, he has allowed a hard contact rate of 50%, and his ERA is close to five. The good news is that there are some encouraging signs as well — 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. The bad news is that he is facing the Phillies in a small ballpark. Fly-ball pitchers tend to struggle here. Ray certainly has enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration in tournaments, but there are enough red flags that he should be avoided in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: Ray is a boom or bust option for tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%
	2018	4	3.30	3.80	26.1%	5.4%	34.4%	25.4%	15.9%

Velasquez may have turned a corner. In four starts so far this season, he has a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 5%. He’s always had the talent, he just hasn’ tbeen able to put it all together at the major league level. His matchup against the Diamondbacks is of the boom or bust variety. While they have some good hitters in their lineup, they also have six projected starters with at least a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This may be a contrarian take, but I actually prefer Velasquez over Ray tonight.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not sure we need exposure to either pitcher tonight, but dollar for dollar I prefer Velasquez over Ray.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Even though this game is being played in a home run-friendly ballpark, the total is set at only 7.5 runs. The betting markets have respect for both of these starting pitchers. It’s hard to trust the splits for Vince Velasquez, as he’s been a much better pitcher in his first four starts of this season than he was in his 15 starts last season. David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, and Alex Avila (on DraftKings) are viable tournament targets, but this isn’t an offense that I will have much exposure to.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.358	0.326	0.167	37.2%	8.0%	16.8%	52.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
2	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	0.326	0.124	25.9%	9.3%	14.7%	43.1%	2B	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,300
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.392	0.388	0.254	42.0%	14.1%	24.7%	46.2%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,000	1B	$9,900
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.340	0.344	0.193	37.7%	8.5%	19.8%	42.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	CF	$8,900
5	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.324	0.337	0.162	41.6%	12.0%	21.4%	36.4%	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,900
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.361	0.413	0.197	53.9%	16.7%	34.0%	36.7%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,900
7	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.264	0.254	0.151	29.8%	6.7%	23.2%	43.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
8	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.227	0.198	0.049	20.0%	4.1%	34.7%	60.9%	P	$9,300	P	$11,000	P	$21,500
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.227	0.198	0.049	20.0%	4.1%	34.7%	60.9%	P	$9,300	P	$11,000	P	$21,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Avila (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Robbie Ray has such a high strikeout rate that is kills any fantasy appeal of a Phillies’ stack. Even if they manage to get baserunners each inning, there is no guarantee that they are going to score runs. Ray’s high strikeout rate allows him to get out of jams that most pitchers aren’t able to. With that said, he’s a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Rhys Hoskins is an excellent one-off target in tournaments. He owns a massive .472 xwOBA against southpaws since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.356	0.356	0.165	24.7%	12.7%	11.6%	60.3%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.331	0.346	0.160	30.5%	13.1%	8.7%	49.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.322	0.306	0.161	30.8%	3.8%	23.9%	51.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,600
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.435	0.472	0.412	50.0%	29.9%	18.2%	31.6%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,100	1B	$10,100
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.299	0.324	0.209	33.3%	7.8%	13.3%	46.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,300
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.417	0.423	0.308	30.0%	7.1%	21.4%	30.0%	SS	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,000	SS	$7,500
7	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.358	0.363	0.275	39.0%	11.8%	18.4%	45.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,600
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.194	0.228	0.044	29.6%	10.0%	36.0%	59.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.202	0.137	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	53.8%	50.0%	P	$8,800	P	$8,600	P	$17,100

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 24th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 5:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Daniel Vogelbach

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Welington Castillo (FD), Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Avila (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE

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