MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-30 01:25:40

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

As someone who plays DFS and provides content for a living, my favorite picks in each slate are always out in the open. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don’t. The Ian Kennedy experience was not a fun one last night, but believe me, I felt the pain along with everyone else. Hopefully someone listened to me and played a Rays hedge stack.

There are going to be ups and down in DFS and the key to being profitable over the long run is to always have a valid reason as to why you are making each pick. Hindsight is always 20/20, but each night when the slate is over you should take a look at each of your picks and ask yourself if you had a good reason to play each pick. If so, the process wasn’t flawed. Being too results-oriented in the short-term will lead to bad decision-making that will eventually hurt your bankroll in the long run. I bring this up not to justify the Kennedy pick (I probably should have put more stock into his recent form), but as a reminder to trust your process with the NFL season approaching. If you’d like to learn more about how I manage my bankroll, why game selection is important, and my strategies in NFL cash games, check out this RotoAcademy video if you haven’t already.

Now, let’s dig into the main course. We have a full 15-game slate on tap tonight and some monster tournaments around the industry.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta								Philadelphia
			R.A. Dickey							Mark Leiter Jr.
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-105							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.319	26.4%	9.3%	16.6%	43.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.325	25.3%	8.0%	21.2%	44.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.342	29.5%	8.3%	17.4%	46.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.316	26.1%	11.2%	20.2%	53.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	25	4.92	4.06	16.8%	8.8%	48.5%	26.1%	24.0%
	L30	5	4.06	3.38	21.2%	6.6%	51.0%	23.2%	24.2%

We kick off the slate with a matchup between the Braves and Phillies. Dickey has surprisingly pitched well since the All-Star break. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.38 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. Even more impressive is his 24% soft contact rate and his 23% hard contact rate. I wouldn’t call him a great play tonight, but the Phillies have struggled against right-handed pitching and in 89 plate appearances, their current roster has a .289 wOBA with only four extra-base hits against Dickey in the past.

Quick Breakdown: At the very least, Dickey is an intriguing SP2 in tournaments.

Mark Leiter Jr.
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	5	4.38	3.86	20.7%	9.7%	49.1%	25.8%	22.8%
	L30	2	3.28	3.22	25.6%	5.6%	50.0%	27.1%	23.7%

Leiter is coming off of a stellar outing against the Marlins, striking out five batters without giving up a single earned run in seven innings of work. He’s had an up and down start to his major league career, but he has certainly flashed some upside. Tonight’s game against the Braves is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.0 runs. I wouldn’t call this an ideal pitching environment, but Leiter has managed to induce a lot of ground balls and soft contact. I likely won’t end up with shares of either starter in this game, but they are both intriguing options in large-field tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Leiter’s range of outcomes is wide, but he has flashed some upside in his rookie season.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball and they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his sixth career start. As a whole, they haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, but this is certainly a favorable environment for hitters. Freddie Freeman (.434 xwOBA and a .319 ISO) and Matt Kemp (.359 xwOBA and a .210 ISO) are both intriguing one-off targets against the right-handed Leiter.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been a completely different offense since calling up Rhys Hoskins. In 19 games, he has racked up 21 hits, including 11 home runs and two doubles. If you pull up his game log, you can see that he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. His price is finally starting to reflect his production, but every once in a while, we just have to ride the hot streak until it ends. Does anyone remember the run that Gary Sanchez went on last season? If you faded him during that stretch, you missed really put yourself behind the eight ball. In terms of the Phillies actual matchup, R.A. Dickey has pitched well since the All-Star break and has been very good at limited hard contact all season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland								NY Yankees
			Trevor Bauer							Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-105							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.328	36.2%	8.2%	24.2%	41.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.278	25.8%	4.4%	23.7%	51.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.324	30.8%	8.9%	21.9%	53.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.324	32.1%	9.6%	18.1%	56.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	28	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	48.7%	31.9%	19.0%
	2017	25	3.85	4.59	26.1%	8.5%	45.9%	35.3%	14.8%
	L30	5	3.38	2.45	28.8%	6.5%	43.3%	33.3%	17.8%

The advanced pitching stats have suggested some positive regression for Bauer for quite some time now. We are finally starting to see the results follow. In his last five starts, he owns a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s actually fared well against the Yankees in his career, but it’s always difficult to trust a road pitcher in this ballpark that isn’t named Corey Kluber. On the season, the Yankees are ranked second in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, we should take unnecessary risks. We should be able to find better options than Bauer.

Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	3.93	4.67	20.2%	7.7%	56.7%	31.1%	18.6%
	2017	23	4.69	4.52	18.0%	9.6%	54.0%	30.5%	21.4%
	L30	5	5.35	5.47	18.2%	13.2%	48.2%	41.0%	15.7%

Garcia hasn’t been sharp in his last five outings, posting a 5.35 SIERA with a walk rate of 13%. he is a pitcher that relies on ground balls and soft contact. When ground ball pitchers don’t have an above-average strikeout rate, they are basically at the mercy of BABIP with each and every start. If the ground balls find holes, that pitcher is going to be in trouble. When the ground balls are hit to the infielders, he’s likely to succeed. Rather than praying to the BABIP gods, I like to take pitchers that have more control in their fantasy production. In other words, I like pitchers with better strikeout potential.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia is in bad form and draws a difficult matchup against the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks! Isn’t it funny that Drew Carey has bleach blonde hair these days? The Price is Right was always one of my favorite shows growing up. I’ve always been fascinated with games where you can win prizes, which might explain why I love fantasy sports so much. Anyway, the Indians draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Jaime Garcia. While I like the fact that his recent form is off, he still induces a ground ball rate of 57% when facing right-handed hitters. I expect the Indians to manufacture some runs here, but I’m not sure they have the upside that I’m looking for in an offense. For that reason, I see their hitters as secondary plays in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez (FD), Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Tonight’s game is basically set as a pick ‘em, but I prefer the Yankees’ offense over the Indians’ offense. Trevor Bauer isn’t a ground ball pitcher and he has struggled with allowing too much hard contact this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees have the seventh most home runs of any team in baseball. Bauer’s splits are fairly neutral, as he has allowed a .328 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Gary Sanchez is the top overall catching option in the slate and Didi Gregorius looks like a free square on DraftKings ($3,400). Outside of that, I see the Yankees more as tournament options than core plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius (FD & FDRFT), Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami								Washington
			Vance Worley							Edwin Jackson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-142							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.319	34.1%	10.6%	16.0%	47.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.340	31.1%	11.5%	16.7%	41.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.329	33.3%	6.9%	14.5%	49.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.373	0.351	34.3%	8.1%	15.5%	38.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vance Worley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	4	4.79	3.53	15.3%	9.6%	48.1%	31.6%	15.2%
	2017	10	4.76	5.70	15.1%	7.6%	49.5%	36.5%	16.5%
	L30	6	5.31	5.04	10.9%	8.5%	54.0%	28.7%	20.8%

It’s still early in the day (at the time of writing this), but it’s worth noting that the first four games listed in the Grind Down could all have weather issues. For our sake, I hope my main man Kevin Roth gives this one a GREEN in his update because this game features two of the most hittable pitchers in the slate. In ten starts this season, Worley owns a 4.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 37%. The Nationals should be salivating tonight as they step up to the plate.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll give Worley a resounding no tonight.

Edwin Jackson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	13	5.23	5.89	16.4%	11.0%	40.2%	33.3%	13.3%
	2017	7	5.13	3.38	15.5%	7.3%	38.7%	32.1%	25.8%
	L30	5	4.55	2.61	18.9%	6.3%	42.6%	32.6%	27.4%

Jackson hasn’t been as bad as we expected in his first seven starts of the season, but make no mistake about it, he’s not a good major league pitcher. He currently owns a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has done a nice job of inducing soft contact, but his .268 BABIP and 79% LOB rate are unsustainable. He may be favored against the Marlins tonight, but I have no interest in Jackson when it comes to anything fantasy baseball related.

Quick Breakdown: Jackson can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The middle of the Marlins’ lineup is fairly solid, but once you get past J.T. Realmuto, it gets pretty ugly. When you are consistently getting outs from the bottom of the order, it limits the number of at-bats that the top of the order sees, which in turn limits the appeal of a stack. I usually love to stack against Edwin Jackson, but he hasn’t been terrible this season. Rather than stacking the Marlins tonight, I will be using their two through five hitters as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

Nationals’ fans should be excited about tonight’s game. Not only do they get to face a hittable pitcher in Vance Worley, but Trea Turner is expected to make his return to the lineup. He has missed the last two months with a wrist injury. The Nationals may ease him back into the rotation, which could mean a few extra rest days or even pinch-hitting for him late in games that are already in hand. I want to say tread lightly, but I always love the upside that Turner has at shortstop. In terms of the matchup, Worley is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .319+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle								Baltimore
			Erasmo Ramirez							Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-133							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.366	38.5%	9.7%	16.9%	43.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.332	34.4%	8.0%	17.3%	33.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.290	29.3%	3.9%	18.2%	53.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.308	31.0%	7.9%	25.2%	34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	1	4.10	3.77	16.7%	6.9%	52.5%	26.3%	19.3%
	2017	13	4.24	4.52	18.6%	5.6%	47.4%	39.2%	15.5%
	L30	5	4.67	3.76	16.4%	5.5%	44.7%	37.2%	17.4%

I have yet to roster Ramirez this season and that’s not going to change tonight in a road start against the Orioles. However, strictly from a splits perspective, this matchup sets up well for Ramirez. Since the beginning of last season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .290 xwOBA, a 29% hard contact rate, and a 54% ground ball rate. If we ignore the name and look strictly at the splits, we might want to think twice about stacking the right-handed heavy Orioles tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Ramirez doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration, but it’s worth noting how tough he is on right-handed hitters.

Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,200
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	14	4.23	4.02	21.9%	8.9%	35.9%	28.0%	23.6%
	2017	24	4.55	4.18	20.8%	7.2%	32.1%	36.4%	17.4%
	L30	4	2.95	2.67	31.4%	3.8%	35.3%	44.1%	13.2%

Bundy has pitched extremely well in his last four starts, posting a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 4%. He is a great example of why it’s important to look at recent stats, especially late in the season. If you only saw his yearly numbers, nothing would stand out. Bundy has had a swinging strike rate of at least 15% in each of his last three starts, one of which came against the low-strikeout Angels. He did face the A’s twice during that stretch, but his recent form piques my interest. I expect him to be low owned tonight against the Mariners, who have hit right-handed pitching well this season.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy isn’t a core play in this slate, but if you are making multiple tournament lineups, he deserves consideration given his recent form.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a ballpark upgrade playing in Camden Yards, but their matchup against Dylan Bundy doesn’t look that great on paper. I’ve already mentioned the recent form and over the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .308 xwOBA with a 25% strikeout rate. If you are targeting any of the Mariners tonight, make sure they bat from the left side of the plate. Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager are the top targets here, but they are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

This game has a total of 9.5 runs, yet I don’t have a single hitter listed as an elite play. I would love to load up on the Orioles if they had lefties in their lineup, but Chris Davis has been struggling a bit recently and Seth Smith has been hitting in the nine hole. As mentioned above, Erasmo Ramirez has held righties to a .290 xwOBA, a 29% hard contact rate, and a 54% ground ball rate in the last two seasons. I’m not going to completely rule out the Orioles, but they aren’t in as favorable of a matchup as you would think.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston								Toronto
			Chris Sale							Brett Anderson
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-205							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.252	0.246	23.1%	2.9%	30.4%	49.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.540	0.461	42.4%	5.1%	10.3%	48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.269	0.275	31.7%	5.3%	30.2%	37.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.418	0.378	33.0%	10.5%	12.7%	50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$13,200	Salary:		$25,600
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.43	3.34	25.7%	5.0%	41.2%	31.7%	17.0%
	2017	26	2.58	2.88	36.0%	5.0%	37.0%	28.4%	17.9%
	L30	5	3.00	5.40	32.8%	6.3%	40.0%	22.1%	15.6%

Sale is the number one pitching option in the slate and it’s not particularly close. He has been other-worldly this season, posting a 2.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36% and a walk rate of 5%. We always love pitchers with high strikeout rates and low walk rates and Sale is one of the best in baseball at both of those. The Blue Jays have a few hitters that fare well against left-handed pitching, but I’m not overly concerned. As a whole, they are ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate this season. The current roster of the Blue Jays has combined to go 26-for-147 with 42 strikeouts against Sale in the past.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the cash game lock of the slate and he’s obviously viable in tournaments as well.

Brett Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	3	5.10	11.91	8.1%	6.5%	50.0%	35.9%	24.5%
	2017	6	5.12	8.18	14.4%	10.8%	50.0%	34.9%	22.9%

Anderson is making his seventh start of the season, but his first as a member of the Blue Jays. He hasn’t fared well in the last few seasons and we shouldn’t expect that to change in a late August start against the Red Sox, who just so happen to be ranked tenth in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. This is a bad spot for a below-average pitcher and it doesn’t help that he has Chris Sale pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Anderson in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox go from one hitter’s park to another tonight in the Rogers Centre. They are a sneaky stack in a slate that features some very high implied run totals. On paper, they draw one of the top matchups on the board. In his last nine major league starts, he has allowed a .461 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .378 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Basically, the base paths should be very busy for the Red Sox tonight. While they don’t hit many home runs, I’m liking the idea of a low-owned Boston stack here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, Chris Young

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Could Josh Donaldson or Justin Smoak hit a solo shot off of Chris Sale tonight? Sure, but do we really want to count on it, especially in a 15 game slate? There are times to fade the popular pitcher and use leverage plays against him, but only when there are viable alternatives.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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