MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-21 00:50:13

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Looking for more invaluable content to help you build better lineups? Start your FREE 7-Day Premium Trial Now!

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Baltimore
			Josh Tomlin							Chris Tillman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-130							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.321	37.6%	2.2%	15.5%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.338	30.0%	12.0%	20.1%	43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	0.347	32.3%	2.8%	17.2%	39.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.345	33.3%	7.4%	17.3%	40.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	13	4.25	5.83	16.8%	2.0%	40.8%	36.5%	13.1%

After Corey Kluber pitched a complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts against the Orioles last night, Baltimore will look to bounce back in a much better matchup against Tomlin. In 13 starts this season, Tomlin owns a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate below 17%. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. That does not bode well for a matchup against the likes of Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo.

Quick Breakdown: In full slates, there are a lot of easy fades at the pitcher position. Tomlin is one of them.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%
	2017	8	5.49	8.07	14.4%	10.5%	43.3%	33.3%	22.2%

Tillman is having his worst season as a professional. In eight starts, he owns a 5.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 15% and a walk rate of 10.5%. He is giving up more hard contact this season and the lack of strikeouts has led to a lot of trouble for the veteran right-hander. With these two pitchers on the mound tonight, Vegas has the over/under set at 11.0 runs, which is incredibly high for a game being played in Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and also draw an exploitable matchup against Chris Tillman. As I mentioned earlier, Tillman’s strikeouts are down and his walks are up this season, which is great news if you are considering an Indians’ stack. In the last two seasons combined, Tillman has allowed a .338 xwOBA to lefties and a .345 xwOBA to righties. The Indians have one of the most talented offenses in baseball and there are a lot of reasons to like them tonight in Baltimore.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.344	0.343	0.166	27.0%	9.0%	12.7%	45.8%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.343	0.345	0.196	38.2%	9.2%	19.5%	37.4%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.363	0.340	0.174	28.0%	7.5%	9.7%	38.0%	3B	$4,300	2B/3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.363	0.381	0.252	37.6%	10.9%	20.6%	38.2%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.374	0.398	0.264	37.5%	15.1%	16.9%	35.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.346	0.314	0.199	29.2%	5.3%	16.5%	34.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.223	0.267	0.139	30.0%	5.1%	26.3%	39.1%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.396	0.396	0.296	41.7%	12.9%	29.0%	42.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.320	0.331	0.118	32.1%	9.2%	19.5%	36.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles were blanked by Corey Kluber last night, but I’m expecting a much different result in their matchup against Josh Tomlin. He is a great example of why we need to look at splits by handedness because he isn’t your typical right-handed pitcher. He has some serious reverse-splits, holding lefties to a .321 xwOBA while allowing a .347 xwOBA to righties. Seth Smith is still a fine play here, but most of my exposure to this offense will come in the form of a right-handed stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.337	0.368	0.173	33.2%	11.0%	21.2%	45.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.337	0.339	0.195	32.2%	5.3%	16.2%	43.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.340	0.354	0.237	35.4%	6.7%	19.4%	37.7%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.371	0.377	0.259	36.9%	8.6%	23.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,600
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.411	0.376	0.272	36.5%	7.8%	26.7%	48.6%	OF	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,000	1B	$7,800
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.340	0.312	0.203	29.2%	3.4%	19.9%	42.3%	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.307	0.297	0.142	33.2%	6.2%	26.6%	41.2%	C	$3,400	C	$3,900	C	$7,800
8	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.353	0.347	0.115	28.8%	9.2%	14.4%	51.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
9	Ruben Tejada	RIGHT	0.152	0.241	0.042	15.8%	5.7%	20.8%	41.7%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Philadelphia
			Mike Leake							Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-138							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	0.328	28.8%	5.5%	15.0%	56.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.353	27.9%	8.8%	14.6%	32.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.310	30.5%	3.0%	18.5%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.317	26.6%	3.8%	19.2%	44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Leake
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2016	30	3.92	4.69	16.5%	4.0%	53.7%	30.6%	17.3%
	2017	13	3.98	3.14	17.5%	4.6%	54.9%	27.6%	17.9%

Leake has a low ERA (3.14) this season, even though he has allowed 17 earned runs in his last four outings. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, so for him to be successful, he needs to induce a lot of ground balls and a lot of soft contact. From a DFS perspective, that’s not exactly the type of pitcher that we want to rely on. Leake’s high ground ball rate is needed in this home run-friendly ballpark, but the over/under for the game is set a whopping 9.5 runs. In a full slate, we should be able to find better pitching options.

Quick Breakdown: Leake is pitching in a bad ballpark and has limited strikeout upside.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	14	5.87	4.91	10.2%	6.9%	34.7%	29.9%	19.9%

Hellickson is lucky to have an ERA just under 5.00 this season. He is striking out 10% of batters, while only inducing a ground ball rate of 35%. Basically, he is giving up a ton of fly balls and his home ballpark is one of the best in baseball for home runs. That’s not a great combination. The Cardinals may not hit a lot of home runs as a team, but they also strikeout at a low rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson is one of my least favorite pitching options on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a sizable ballpark shift in their favor tonight playing in Citizens Bank Park. They also draw a terrific matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has a strikeout rate compared to most of the pitchers you will find in your local softball league. Speaking of softballs, that’s what the baseball is going to look like for these Cardinals’ hitters. In the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .353 xwOBA to lefties with a very low 32% ground ball rate. I will take ALL of the Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler shares that I can get my hands on tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.388	0.418	0.263	46.4%	15.2%	19.3%	27.2%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
2	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.366	0.351	0.202	31.9%	13.8%	23.9%	36.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,200
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.329	0.349	0.157	32.6%	8.1%	20.9%	45.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
4	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.354	0.338	0.257	34.7%	7.8%	24.3%	42.8%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.326	0.331	0.119	31.7%	6.0%	11.7%	48.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
6	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.356	0.310	0.209	29.6%	6.5%	12.8%	44.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
7	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.347	0.347	0.195	42.3%	10.5%	30.9%	54.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
8	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.299	0.294	0.190	28.6%	0.0%	33.3%	39.3%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
9	Mike Leake	RIGHT	0.140	0.225	0.038	15.0%	1.8%	28.1%	38.9%	P	$8,000	P	$7,700	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina, Aledmys Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Even though Mike Leake has struggled a bit in his last four starts, he’s not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. His ground ball rate to both left and right-handed hitters is above 51% and he is very good at limiting hard contact. This is a great ballpark for home run production, but it’s hard to hit home runs when you aren’t getting the ball off the ground. In a full 15 game slate, most of the Phillies’ hitters are deep tournament fliers at best. The one value play that stands out here is Odubel Herrera, who has four multi-hit games in his last eight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.336	0.311	0.154	29.6%	8.1%	20.3%	42.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.318	0.331	0.136	34.4%	7.1%	18.7%	59.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.305	0.294	0.142	33.2%	8.7%	31.1%	46.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.327	0.326	0.200	38.0%	5.5%	22.9%	42.0%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.289	0.320	0.147	29.3%	6.6%	16.5%	45.3%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.316	0.316	0.187	36.4%	10.0%	26.7%	39.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,500	RF	$4,800
7	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.350	0.331	0.188	39.6%	12.5%	27.5%	60.4%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.303	0.275	0.174	27.9%	5.8%	21.4%	40.1%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,200
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.200	0.187	0.070	7.0%	8.7%	29.0%	76.5%	P	$6,600	P	$5,200	P	$10,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – RED

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								NY Yankees
			Parker Bridwell							Michael Pineda
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-265							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.379	0.315	30.4%	3.6%	14.3%	52.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.302	33.7%	8.3%	27.4%	47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.453	0.461	55.0%	3.9%	15.4%	35.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.299	30.7%	5.2%	25.5%	48.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Parker Bridwell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30
	2016	0	4.53	13.50	20.0%	6.7%	20.0%	54.6%	9.1%
	2017	1	4.16	2.79	12.8%	2.6%	51.6%	37.5%	12.5%

Bridwell is making his second start of the season and in his career. In five Triple-A starts earlier this year, he posted a 3.89 FIP with a strikeout rate of 21%. Those numbers don’t jump off the page and in the first few starts of a call-up, I like to lean on Vegas. They clearly aren’t expecting a lot from Bridwell, as he is a huge underdog in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs. The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Bridwell is an easy fade in all formats tonight, even though he’s the cheapest pitcher on the board.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Pineda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	32	3.40	4.82	27.4%	7.0%	45.8%	32.7%	17.2%
	2017	13	3.60	3.71	23.9%	5.6%	52.7%	30.2%	18.2%

Pineda is one of the most frustrating pitchers in all of baseball. He looks like a Cy Young candidate at times and then looks like Jered Weaver at other times. He’s had good numbers as a whole this season, posting a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 53%. My guess is that people will be scared to go back to the well tonight, as the Angels just lit him up in Los Angeles and now he has to face them at home in a much better ballpark for hitters. My plan is to be overweight on Pineda regardless, but especially if his ownership projection is low. He is the best bet in the slate to pick up a win, as he is currently listed as a -265 favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Chris Sale is the obvious cash game target, but Pineda is my favorite tournament play in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels knocked Michael Pineda around last week and will look to do the same tonight. While we can lean on past results every now and then, I tend to trust the larger sample. I see a matchup against a pitcher that has a 24% strikeout rate, a 53% ground ball rate, and a 30% hard contact rate. I also see a matchup against a pitcher that has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Kole Calhoun is a viable one-off target with the short porch in right field, but he’s the only hitter that I’m giving consideration to in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.350	0.305	0.122	24.5%	11.3%	17.1%	61.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.324	0.339	0.149	34.5%	10.0%	18.7%	39.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
3	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.319	0.357	0.172	35.9%	7.8%	13.1%	44.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
4	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.307	0.319	0.090	27.4%	6.8%	12.1%	59.0%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.333	0.328	0.193	37.3%	13.9%	24.1%	37.9%	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.314	0.317	0.106	28.3%	5.9%	8.5%	53.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,000
7	Eric Young	SWITCH	0.406	0.293	0.240	23.1%	1.8%	21.1%	51.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.288	0.293	0.143	28.1%	9.3%	22.1%	46.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
9	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.279	0.281	0.137	31.6%	9.6%	31.1%	38.9%	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ stacks will be out in full force tonight and rightly so. They are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career major league start. Parker Bridwell has had a below-average ground ball rate in most of his time in the minor leagues and we know the Yankees feast on subpar pitching. On the season, they are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and most of the damage came against bad pitchers. The entire lineup is in play tonight, but my favorite hitters are in the one through six spots in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.344	0.326	0.149	30.7%	12.2%	17.7%	47.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.342	0.311	0.168	26.5%	12.6%	18.1%	46.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.415	0.415	0.320	49.4%	12.5%	33.4%	38.0%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,500
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.352	0.361	0.212	35.7%	9.8%	20.1%	49.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.336	0.311	0.181	31.8%	3.6%	18.9%	49.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,700
6	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.433	0.390	0.316	38.3%	9.0%	22.1%	47.8%	C	$3,900	C	$4,900	C	$9,600
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.313	0.263	0.178	24.4%	3.1%	15.6%	41.6%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.328	0.327	0.153	32.0%	11.6%	24.9%	43.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
9	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.334	0.347	0.242	39.3%	11.6%	34.4%	29.9%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Tampa Bay
			Amir Garrett							Alex Cobb
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -145							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.300	32.1%	2.4%	31.0%	53.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.349	37.4%	8.6%	16.4%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.386	0.367	42.0%	11.9%	16.3%	40.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.320	37.4%	5.1%	15.8%	52.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Amir Garrett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30

	2017	11	4.97	6.91	18.9%	10.3%	42.5%	40.4%	12.9%

Garrett went from being a popular value play earlier in the year to being a pitcher that we auto-stack against. In 11 starts overall, he has a 4.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%, a walk rate of 10%, and a hard contact rate of 40%. He has been fairly tough on left-handed hitters, but has been obliterated by righties to the tun of a .367 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate. Until he faces a lineup with nine left-handed hitters in it (which is never going to happen), we should continue to avoid Garrett.

Quick Breakdown: Garrett’s production has dropped off the map. Continue avoiding him in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,100
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	14	4.73	4.17	16.2%	6.8%	45.1%	39.6%	13.2%

Cobb just hasn’t been able to regain that form he had prior to Tommy John surgery. He didn’t look great last season and through 14 starts this season, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. When you combine a low strikeout rate with a 40% hard contact rate, you can see why he has struggled so badly. Many people may not realize this, but the Reds are actually a top eight offense against right-handed pitching. They are also a high contact team, which limits the opposing pitcher’s upside.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb may be a favorite here, but he has more risk than potential reward at this stage of his career.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds aren’t an offense that we typically target away from home, but Alex Cobb has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. This isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production and I don’t love the idea of a full Reds’ stack, but we can certainly look at a few of their hitters as one-off targets. Scooter Gennett has been seeing the ball well recently, Joey Votto has some of the best numbers in baseball against right-handed pitching, and Scott Schebler continues to rake and nobody seems to notice.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.302	0.252	0.078	18.5%	8.9%	20.1%	47.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.326	0.292	0.175	31.3%	5.4%	20.1%	42.9%	2B	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.423	0.436	0.257	40.1%	17.3%	14.3%	37.2%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.332	0.326	0.253	36.6%	5.8%	27.0%	33.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.341	0.335	0.215	35.9%	7.9%	21.4%	49.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.316	0.315	0.155	33.2%	8.2%	23.6%	40.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.309	0.297	0.093	19.6%	1.8%	13.7%	43.7%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.298	0.297	0.198	22.1%	8.4%	18.9%	41.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.617	0.407	0.500	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,400

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a high run projection considering the fact that they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but it’s actually the 14th highest in the slate. Everyone will be overlooking Tampa Bay, despite having one of the best matchups on the board. Amir Garrett has not been able to figure out right-handed hitters, allowing a .367 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate and a 12% walk rate this season. The Rays struggle as a whole against southpaws, but maybe this is a matchup that can get them going. They are a sneaky stack for tournaments and we can look to Evan Longoria and Trevor Plouffe ($2,100 on FanDuel) in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.285	0.277	0.128	31.2%	8.0%	34.4%	41.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
2	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.316	0.287	0.133	32.1%	3.9%	27.1%	51.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.296	0.343	0.184	37.2%	10.0%	21.1%	37.8%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.309	0.315	0.157	28.7%	11.4%	25.0%	46.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
5	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.323	0.294	0.131	36.2%	8.4%	31.5%	51.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
6	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.325	0.347	0.167	38.3%	9.2%	23.9%	45.7%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
7	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.347	0.288	0.113	21.2%	6.9%	3.4%	64.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.286	0.322	0.177	41.9%	9.3%	20.9%	29.8%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.306	0.253	0.093	27.6%	5.8%	22.6%	46.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria, Trevor Plouffe (FD)

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Logan Morrison, Tim Beckham, Trevor Plouffe (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Miami
			Gio Gonzalez							Edinson Volquez
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.265	0.307	26.2%	7.5%	21.3%	55.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.369	35.5%	11.7%	17.1%	45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.317	33.9%	8.9%	22.5%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.313	28.2%	7.9%	18.8%	55.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	14	4.61	2.89	21.9%	10.5%	43.8%	31.3%	22.2%

Gonzalez has a 2.89 ERA, but as I said with Ervin Santana and Wade Miley, it’s unsustainable with the way that he is pitching. You can only skirt by with a .267 BABIP and an 85% LOB% for so long, eventually it is going to catch up to you. Everything other than his ERA suggests that Gonzalez is a worse pitcher than he was a year ago. In 14 starts this season, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a walk rate of 10.5%. I said to fade Tanner Roark against the Marlins last night and I’m going to recommend fading Gonzalez against them tonight.

Quick Breakdown: I would much rather go back to Michael Pineda at this price point. Don’t be fooled by Gio’s low ERA.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Edinson Volquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2016	34	4.72	5.37	16.3%	8.9%	51.2%	31.7%	19.5%
	2017	13	4.81	3.72	22.2%	12.8%	48.4%	33.2%	19.9%

At this point, it might be better to take out a coin and flip to see whether or not Volquez is going to have a good start or not. He has been incredibly inconsistent this season. After struggling for two months straight, he had that two-start stretch where he had the no-hitter and another eight strikeout game to go with it. He had seemingly found some form until his last start, where he only lasted four innings against the A’s. I’m not a big fan of inconsistency at the pitcher position, especially when the pitcher in question is facing a talented offense like the Nationals.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, there is no need to give Volquez consideration in a matchup against the Nationals.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Paging Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Paging Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Over the last two seasons, Edinson Volquez has allowed a .369 xwOBA, a 36% hard contact rate, and a 12% walk rate to left-handed hitters. You will be hard-pressed to find a better matchup for these two lefties. We can also add Brian Goodwin into the mix, assuming he bats in the two-hole again. Trea Turner is expensive and doesn’t have as good of a matchup as the lefties, but he’s a reverse-splits hitter with a decent stolen base matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.382	0.329	0.232	30.8%	4.5%	18.3%	47.5%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,200
2	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.317	0.264	0.224	33.3%	5.7%	25.7%	45.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.382	0.397	0.245	34.9%	18.3%	15.5%	39.4%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.331	0.341	0.198	36.4%	5.7%	23.0%	44.7%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.412	0.396	0.247	38.2%	6.7%	8.8%	35.9%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,800
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.343	0.344	0.189	34.8%	9.7%	17.8%	37.1%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.307	0.320	0.161	33.3%	6.4%	17.8%	37.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.284	0.273	0.167	31.6%	5.2%	31.6%	41.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.206	0.189	0.033	11.6%	2.7%	37.0%	51.5%	P	$8,800	P	$9,600	P	$18,400

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Targeting left-handed hitters against Gio Gonzalez isn’t a profitable strategy. He limits lefties to a 26% hard contact rate and induces a 56% ground ball rate. Right-handed hitters have had much more success against him though, posting a 34% hard contact rate with a higher walk rate and a much lower ground ball rate. The Marlins may not have a lineup full of right-handed power hitters, but they do have Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna, who both own a .409+ xwOBA and a 45%+ hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.258	0.211	0.041	12.7%	1.9%	14.3%	63.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.434	0.413	0.368	52.1%	14.7%	25.0%	46.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,700
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.311	0.325	0.120	28.4%	6.0%	20.6%	63.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,100
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.377	0.409	0.244	45.1%	9.2%	18.9%	40.6%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.317	0.309	0.180	28.4%	8.7%	20.8%	44.1%	C	$3,000	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.410	0.351	0.301	36.2%	7.6%	32.9%	46.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
7	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.273	0.217	0.086	24.0%	0.0%	30.6%	62.5%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100
8	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.258	0.229	0.075	22.6%	6.7%	20.0%	58.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,500	2B	$4,800
9	Edinson Volquez	RIGHT	0.000	0.023	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,200	P	$14,400

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 20th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina, Aledmys Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – RED

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria, Trevor Plouffe (FD)

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Logan Morrison, Tim Beckham, Trevor Plouffe (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author