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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-07 01:52:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Baltimore
pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-123 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.359 36.1% 3.3% 12.0% 46.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.314 33.0% 7.2% 20.5% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.292 31.3% 3.5% 20.9% 58.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.345 31.0% 7.0% 21.0% 48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 11 4.23 2.92 13.0% 2.0% 50.2% 32.1% 14.7%

Nova may have a 2.92 ERA, but he doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He has a 13% strikeout rate, which really limits his upside and magnifies any mistakes that he makes. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Orioles and he has to face them on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. With 15 games on the schedule, we can find better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Nova has more downside than upside in a matchup against the Orioles.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 12 5.18 5.92 14.8% 9.5% 43.8% 34.0% 18.4%

Gausman is trying to recover some of his 2016 form. While he hasn’t been great recently, he does have quality starts in three of his last five outings. He is listed as a small favorite tonight against the Pirates, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. The main concern with Gausman is his strikeout upside. A 15% strikeout rate isn’t going to cut it in DFS and the Pirates have the second lowest k-rate against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman should be fine in this matchup, but he doesn’t have enough strikeout potential to crack my radar in a 15 game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Kevin Gausman is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .345 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. His numbers against lefties are better, but he may see some regression, as his xwOBA is 16 points higher than his wOBA. The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift and they get to utilize a DH in this series. Unfortunately, they are still the Pirates. Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, and Josh Bell are secondary options at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.339 0.344 0.137 33.2% 9.1% 14.3% 44.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.307 0.282 0.105 28.0% 4.0% 14.7% 43.0% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.333 0.345 0.195 33.9% 9.2% 16.5% 39.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.317 0.321 0.135 32.5% 8.7% 26.9% 59.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.348 0.190 33.2% 12.2% 18.2% 50.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.314 0.332 0.159 35.2% 9.6% 21.4% 37.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.307 0.301 0.112 25.4% 8.5% 14.0% 49.5% SS $3,000 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
8 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.324 0.093 28.7% 13.3% 19.3% 52.5% C $3,000 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 John Jaso LEFT 0.338 0.336 0.155 30.8% 10.4% 17.3% 47.3% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

Even though the Orioles are playing at home and have a high implied run total, this isn’t an ideal matchup. Ivan Nova has a 58% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters and has held them to a .292 xwOBA in the last two seasons. The best way to attack Nova is with left-handed hitters and the Orioles only have a few of them. Since the start of last season, Nova has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Seth Smith offers great value batting leadoff and I always give Chris Davis a bump when he faces a low strikeout pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.336 0.367 0.171 33.0% 10.7% 21.0% 45.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.342 0.195 32.7% 5.4% 16.4% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.343 0.357 0.239 35.1% 6.8% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 0.379 0.264 37.8% 7.9% 23.3% 39.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.346 0.351 0.262 42.5% 13.7% 34.9% 36.5% 1B $4,000 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.337 0.316 0.200 29.4% 3.1% 19.5% 42.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.400 0.383 0.282 38.5% 7.4% 25.9% 40.4% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.286 0.290 0.113 30.0% 4.7% 16.9% 43.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.237 0.260 0.072 23.5% 3.4% 21.1% 43.8% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-117 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.298 34.4% 9.4% 24.5% 42.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.306 32.1% 4.1% 19.7% 51.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.279 31.1% 8.7% 27.9% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.310 33.5% 5.6% 21.2% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 10 3.38 4.24 29.0% 7.7% 40.1% 33.6% 26.4%

Pomeranz is a boom or bust pitcher that provides great upside for the price. In ten starts this season, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He has cut down on his walks this season and is inducing more soft contact than he ever has in his career. This sounds like a ringing endorsement, right? While I will fire up Pomeranz in favorable matchups, I want no part of him in a road start against the Yankees. I will note that New York does have the sixth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, but they also have a number of right-handed power bats in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: The strikeout upside of Pomeranz puts him in play in large field tournaments, but he’s far from a core play in this matchup.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 11 4.03 6.34 20.5% 6.2% 47.4% 34.0% 18.8%

I have been very right and very wrong about Tanaka in his last two starts. I’m obviously more bullish on him than most of the DFS industry. I know that he has an ERA over 6.30, but his SIERA is much lower, his strikeout rate is the same as last season, and he is generating the second highest swinging strike rate (13.1%) of his career. He should have some positive regression coming his way, as a .339 BABIP and a 21% HR/FB rate are unsustainable. He will remain on my radar moving forward, just not tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fifth in pitches per plate appearance against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15 game slate, we can find better plays than Tanaka against the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Masahiro Tanaka has owned the Red Sox throughout his career. Their current roster has 133 plate appearances against him, a .192 batting average, and a .227 wOBA. Tanaka hasn’t been as sharp this season, but we already hit on the fact that he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his ERA would lead you to believe. This is a matchup where I will be avoiding both the pitcher and the offense that he is facing. There are typically a lot of runs scored between these two teams, but the Red Sox struggles against Tanaka are a bit much for my liking.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.378 0.335 0.206 34.1% 8.1% 11.0% 42.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.340 0.325 0.170 35.6% 8.7% 15.3% 36.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.347 0.296 0.145 29.6% 7.4% 16.8% 47.6% SS $3,600 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.313 0.357 0.192 38.7% 8.6% 23.1% 39.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.346 0.347 0.182 37.6% 9.6% 19.6% 49.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.358 0.357 0.239 37.7% 11.0% 21.6% 45.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
7 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.308 0.360 0.213 45.7% 7.5% 23.9% 39.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.278 0.258 0.078 29.2% 3.5% 22.1% 57.5% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.155 0.187 0.018 29.0% 6.6% 31.1% 63.9% SS $2,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Drew Pomeranz has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, holding them under a .300 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of at least 24% against each. Those aren’t exactly the type of numbers that we want to see from an opposing pitcher, but the Yankees do get to face him at home in a rivalry game. Gary Sanchez is head and shoulders above the other catchers in baseball when it comes to power at the plate and is always an elite play if you can find the money to pay up at catcher. Aaron Judge and Matt Holliday are also in play, as they both have a .355+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.293 0.274 0.110 24.3% 8.1% 19.0% 51.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.324 0.404 0.267 46.9% 14.6% 30.3% 40.8% C $3,600 C $4,700 C $9,200
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.380 0.390 0.264 40.0% 19.4% 34.3% 33.3% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.353 0.356 0.261 43.9% 10.1% 20.1% 45.5% 1B $3,400 1B $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.152 32.9% 6.6% 18.1% 47.1% 2B $2,900 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.277 0.304 0.166 36.0% 8.1% 18.8% 43.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.359 0.301 0.142 23.1% 3.5% 9.0% 37.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.273 0.295 0.084 26.9% 6.9% 17.2% 45.7% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.340 0.365 0.284 35.8% 11.3% 28.4% 35.8% 1B $2,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,300

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis Cincinnati
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.338 33.3% 8.7% 18.8% 42.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.318 28.2% 9.2% 17.9% 29.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.313 28.8% 6.2% 19.6% 46.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.333 37.0% 6.2% 18.2% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 11 4.30 3.79 20.0% 8.5% 48.4% 29.7% 20.3%

I have a simple rule when it comes to Wainwright, avoid him at all costs when he’s pitching on the road. Let’s quickly look at his home/road splits from the last two seasons:

2017
Home: 2.78 ERA, .306 wOBA allowed
Away: 5.19 ERA, .358 wOBA allowed

2016
Home: 3.20 ERA, .298 wOBA allowed
Away: 6.18 ERA, .374 wOBA allowed

With Wainwright pitching on the road in a hitter’s park, he becomes an easy fade tonight against the Reds, who are surprisingly ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Wainwright’s struggles on the road should continue tonight in Cincinnati.

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 8 4.41 4.89 20.5% 8.4% 40.0% 29.3% 15.8%

Adleman has a decent strikeout rate, but a high SIERA and a walk rate of 8.4%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in one of the best ballparks in baseball for home runs. Granted, the Cardinals haven’t hit many home runs this season, but they are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. As an underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs, Adleman is an easy fade tonight.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with both of the starting pitchers in this game.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

If you look strictly at wOBA, Tim Adleman appears to have traditional splits for a right-handed pitcher. However, if you dive a little deeper, you will see that his xwOBA (.333) and hard contact rate (37%) are a lot worse against right-handed hitters. The left-handed bats of Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter are still strong plays, but Adleman’s reverse-splits brings a potential Cardinals’ stack into play wth all of the right-handed hitters that they have in their lineup. St. Louis also sees a sizable ballpark bump playing in Great American Ball Park.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.359 0.346 0.188 30.8% 13.8% 24.9% 36.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.379 0.409 0.250 46.0% 15.7% 20.1% 27.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.329 0.346 0.154 33.0% 8.1% 21.2% 46.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.371 0.347 0.282 35.8% 7.7% 23.7% 42.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.328 0.332 0.123 31.5% 6.3% 11.1% 47.6% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.348 0.346 0.213 45.4% 9.0% 33.3% 50.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.294 0.298 0.235 23.1% 0.0% 23.5% 38.5% 3B $2,400 2B $3,400 3B $6,800
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.205 29.6% 6.7% 12.9% 44.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.354 0.307 0.310 30.6% 3.0% 22.7% 39.5% P $8,900 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Adam Wainwright has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons. This is one of the best ballparks in baseball for home run production and Joey Votto has had some success against Wainwright in the past with six extra base hits and five walks in 43 at-bats. Votto is an excellent one-off target here. Billy Hamilton was caught stealing by Yadier Molina last night, who actually ended up throwing out two runners. Hamilton will obviously still be aggressive if he gets on base, but Wainwright and Molina are two of the best at holding runners. If Scott Schebler is able to return to the lineup, I would target him over Hamilton.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.303 0.255 0.080 19.2% 8.8% 20.3% 46.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.304 0.174 29.8% 9.5% 17.0% 38.6% SS $3,700 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.420 0.438 0.253 39.9% 17.8% 14.8% 37.4% 1B $4,100 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.330 0.259 37.0% 6.0% 26.5% 33.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.338 0.333 0.212 35.7% 7.5% 21.9% 49.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.315 0.316 0.156 33.6% 7.8% 23.4% 40.6% 3B $2,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.315 0.297 0.085 18.6% 1.9% 13.6% 44.3% 2B $2,500 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.281 0.300 0.141 21.3% 9.2% 19.5% 41.0% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.054 0.078 0.043 7.1% 0.0% 46.2% 66.7% P $6,900 P $5,800 P $11,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Angels at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

LA Angels Detroit
laangelsmlb Jesse Chavez detroitmlb Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.329 28.7% 8.4% 19.8% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.293 30.9% 10.5% 28.4% 38.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.336 35.3% 5.4% 20.9% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.339 38.1% 7.7% 19.4% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez
jesse-chavez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.59 4.43 22.3% 6.4% 42.9% 31.2% 16.1%
2017 11 4.41 4.68 18.5% 7.0% 46.0% 34.0% 15.0%

Chavez started out the season well, but has struggled over the last month or so. He now owns a 4.41 SIERA with a subpar strikeout rate of 18.5%. His biggest issue has been dealing with right-handed power hitters and he will see quite a few of those tonight against the Tigers. As a large underdog on the road, Chavez carries more downside than upside in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Chavez can be avoided in all formats, his struggles against righties will come to the forefront in this matchup.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 3.94 3.38 23.5% 7.3% 38.3% 33.0% 12.4%
2017 10 4.66 4.47 19.2% 9.6% 44.4% 40.8% 16.7%

Norris hasn’t been as good as last season, but he still has a 19% strikeout rate and a good offense behind him. We obviously know that the Angels’ offense isn’t the same without Mike Trout, but their current makeup isn’t nearly as bad against left-handed pitching as you would think. Six of their projected starters have at least a .325 wOBA against southpaws and seven of their projected starters have a walk rate of at least 8%. This is an offense that prides itself on putting the ball into play and we know that Norris is prone to those blowup outings.

Quick Breakdown: If we had a five game slate tonight, I would have some interest, but I can’t justify playing Norris with all of the great pitching options available.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Daniel Norris has allowed a 40% hard contact rate this season and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two years combined. During that stretch, he has also allowed a .339 xwOBA to righties. Basically, if you are targeting the Angels, make sure they bat from the right side of the plate. I wouldn’t go overboard with my exposure to the Angels’ offense, but Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Jefry Marte, and Martin Maldonado all hit southpaws well and are all dirt cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.294 0.286 0.094 20.3% 8.5% 7.9% 56.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.336 0.369 0.182 31.5% 9.6% 18.3% 37.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.325 0.380 0.211 38.7% 5.6% 11.7% 46.0% 1B $2,800 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.377 0.342 0.120 29.9% 8.6% 11.9% 60.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
5 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.295 0.339 0.165 31.8% 5.4% 17.1% 38.8% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.367 0.330 0.130 27.3% 11.6% 25.0% 49.2% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.290 0.304 0.236 38.9% 5.6% 29.8% 37.5% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,400
8 Eric Young SWITCH 0.408 0.417 0.000 40.0% 16.7% 0.0% 60.0% OF $2,700 OF $2,100 CF $4,000
9 Shane Robinson RIGHT 0.245 0.258 0.083 15.7% 9.0% 13.4% 48.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,200 CF $4,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Jefry Marte, Martin Maldonado

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers have let us down time and time again this season, but their offense has been heating up over the last week of play. Not only that, but they draw one of my favorite matchups in the slate. Jesse Chavez has been trending in the wrong direction over the last month of play and has allowed a .336 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Do you know what team is loaded with right-handed power bats? A Tigers’ stack is firmly in play tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.166 34.5% 7.0% 16.1% 33.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.240 46.9% 17.4% 34.8% 40.6% C $3,000 1B/C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.387 0.455 0.240 42.1% 10.2% 16.9% 40.8% 1B $4,000 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.387 0.178 41.3% 8.8% 14.3% 37.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.388 0.404 0.254 41.4% 10.9% 25.3% 42.8% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.347 0.231 39.8% 9.0% 29.3% 38.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.346 0.384 0.189 39.1% 7.6% 25.1% 35.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Alex Presley LEFT 0.271 0.293 0.131 33.3% 7.6% 17.8% 46.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 LF $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.273 0.258 0.076 17.7% 4.9% 12.9% 54.3% SS $2,300 SS $3,700 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Andrew Romine, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Tampa Bay
whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana tampabaymlb Chris Archer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -170 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.291 31.1% 4.9% 22.1% 48.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.299 35.6% 8.6% 28.1% 46.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.301 31.8% 7.1% 21.9% 37.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.298 32.8% 7.4% 27.6% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 11 4.18 5.60 23.0% 8.6% 37.8% 28.2% 19.7%

I’m always excited about slates where I can target Quintana in a favorable matchup at sub-10% ownership. After being blown up by the Red Sox and after seeing his 5.60 ERA, nobody is going to give Quintana a second look tonight, even though he is facing a Rays’ offense that has the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching. Quintana has an above-average strikeout rate and his high fly-ball rate bodes well in this ballpark. Everyone is going to be on the Chris Archer side of this matchup (myself included), but Quintana makes an excellent tournament play tonight, especially if you want to create some leverage against Archer owners.

Quick Breakdown: At this price point and in this matchup, Quintana is an elite GPP play.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 12 3.42 3.74 29.0% 8.2% 43.6% 37.8% 16.2%

Archer is my favorite pitcher in the slate tonight, which says a lot considering the fact that Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta are also pitching. Archer has been dominant at home throughout the years and is off to a great start this season, posting a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. It’s rare that we see an offense be so good against left-handed pitching and so bad against right-handed pitching, but that’s the case with the White Sox. When looking at team wOBA, they are ranked first against lefties and 29th against righties. Archer should have no problem mowing through this lineup and if you take a few shares of Jose Quintana in tournaments, you will have both sides of this game covered.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is an elite play in all formats and my favorite cash game target on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are dreadful against right-handed pitching and just so happen to be facing one of the best pitchers in baseball tonight in Chris Archer. If you don’t want to play Archer in tournaments, try to gain leverage by playing Jose Quintana, not by playing the White Sox offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.353 0.315 0.224 28.5% 3.9% 18.1% 52.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.326 0.327 0.140 28.9% 7.8% 10.1% 45.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.165 31.9% 5.8% 17.5% 45.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.317 0.216 30.9% 9.9% 23.2% 39.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.316 0.322 0.160 29.8% 6.1% 24.6% 53.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.300 0.276 0.157 29.9% 2.9% 26.0% 51.4% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.324 0.304 0.264 39.1% 4.3% 45.7% 30.4% 1B $2,600 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,600
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.294 0.306 0.027 14.8% 11.8% 12.9% 41.7% C $2,300 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.291 0.280 0.142 20.8% 4.0% 24.6% 39.5% 2B $3,300 2B $2,700 2B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

I’ve already mentioned how high I am on Jose Quintana in tournaments tonight, so I’m obviously not that interested in the Rays’ offense. They have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching and this isn’t a good matchup. Over the last two seasons, Quintana has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. One way or another, my exposure from this game is going to come from the mound.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.297 0.290 0.138 34.3% 7.9% 34.9% 40.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.322 0.288 0.116 31.2% 4.4% 27.3% 53.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.301 0.345 0.189 36.3% 9.7% 20.4% 38.9% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.327 0.328 0.179 32.1% 10.7% 24.0% 48.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Rickie Weeks RIGHT 0.373 0.382 0.259 46.6% 14.4% 29.5% 38.4% OF $2,100 1B $2,500 IF/OF $4,800
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.306 0.275 0.149 30.6% 9.4% 27.2% 46.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.321 0.291 0.130 35.8% 8.0% 32.1% 53.8% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.272 0.322 0.144 42.0% 9.6% 21.5% 29.4% C $2,500 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.345 0.295 0.107 22.2% 6.7% 3.3% 53.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,100 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious