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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-09 01:17:55

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-210 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.315 32.7% 8.3% 27.1% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.307 33.1% 7.7% 30.3% 46.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.328 33.5% 9.6% 22.3% 44.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.236 0.251 24.4% 5.7% 28.6% 54.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.31 3.32 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 32.5% 20.3%
2018 3 4.34 6.14 21.5% 9.2% 37.8% 42.2% 8.9%
L14 2 5.08 5.73 15.2% 8.7% 40.0% 37.1% 8.6%

Welcome back to Tuesday’s edition of the Grind Down. As always, thank you for reading. If you ever have any feedback or ideas on how to improve this article, feel free to post a comment below. We kick off tonight’s 14-game slate with the biggest rivalry in baseball — the Red Sox and Yankees. Pomeranz hasn’t been great in his first three starts coming back from injury. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in Yankee Stadium. There is more risk than upside here.

Quick Breakdown: There are some difficult decisions in this slate, but this isn’t one of them.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $10,000 Salary: $19,500
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 7 3.07 2.11 29.4% 6.8% 51.8% 26.8% 23.2%
L14 2 2.41 1.69 31.0% 3.5% 57.9% 29.0% 21.1%

Severino is as talented as any pitcher in the slate. In a better matchup, he would have a price point similar to that of Corey Kluber. The discount is important in a 14-game slate because it allows us to spend up on our hitters or on our SP2. A matchup against the Red Sox may take him out of cash game consideration, but he certainly offers enough upside to warrant a look in tournaments. He has held this current Red Sox roster to a .319 wOBA with 35 strikeouts in 137 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is viable in tournaments on both single and multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

These two teams tend to score a lot of runs when faced against each other, but the Red Sox have one of the worst matchups of the slate. By all accounts, Luis Severino is a true ace. He has an elite ground ball rate, an elite strikeout rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts have fared well against him in the past, but they aren’t going to make the final cut in a slate this size.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.369 0.552 0.219 38.7% 9.8% 11.9% 38.1% OF $5,100 OF $5,500 RF $10,900
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.344 0.252 0.178 34.5% 10.2% 16.2% 37.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 LF $8,400
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.423 0.377 0.342 49.4% 9.5% 26.4% 42.6% OF $4,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,400
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.397 0.451 0.227 39.1% 9.6% 19.6% 41.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.297 0.364 0.149 32.8% 7.8% 18.9% 47.7% SS $4,100 SS $4,600 SS $9,100
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.317 0.339 0.201 38.4% 6.9% 23.1% 47.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.268 0.259 0.160 25.1% 3.2% 12.8% 52.3% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 3B $6,500
8 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.327 0.216 0.162 35.0% 8.9% 22.7% 45.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.266 0.314 0.117 32.5% 7.3% 25.6% 36.5% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $4,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the most powerful offenses in baseball. Tonight they square off against a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with his control this season. This matchup sets up well for a Yankees’ stack or we can target the hitters individually. While Drew Pomeranz hasn’t been great against left-handed hitters, our attention should be on the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Tyler Austin all boast a .355+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.358 0.316 0.183 30.8% 10.3% 17.2% 46.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.364 0.270 46.3% 25.9% 31.6% 32.5% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.280 0.369 0.119 16.6% 5.2% 14.6% 35.8% SS $4,400 SS $4,500 SS $9,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.466 0.327 0.468 46.3% 16.6% 17.1% 43.1% OF $4,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,200
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.395 0.452 0.299 39.2% 10.7% 24.7% 40.2% C $4,100 C $4,500 C $9,100
6 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.468 0.421 0.297 37.9% 13.3% 22.2% 34.5% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.274 0.327 0.107 16.7% 6.7% 13.3% 54.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,300
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.286 0.382 0.145 40.4% 6.8% 23.0% 40.4% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,800
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.359 0.340 0.000 20.0% 7.7% 15.4% 50.0% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 SS $7,800

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Baltimore
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.207 0.264 23.5% 5.7% 24.3% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.351 37.9% 7.6% 17.4% 30.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.344 34.1% 7.5% 20.3% 36.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.305 33.1% 6.6% 27.9% 36.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8%
2018 7 4.61 5.63 19.9% 8.8% 33.1% 41.0% 13.9%
L14 2 4.69 6.39 16.7% 3.7% 33.3% 46.5% 20.9%

Duffy has really only had one good fantasy outing all season. His fastball velocity and swinging strike rate are both down this season, which has led to a lower strikeout rate. It has also led to a higher hard contact rate (41%). When looking for a pitcher in DFS, we want the exact opposite. We want pitchers with high strikeout rates that can induce soft and medium contact. Duffy is an easy fade on the road against the right-handed heavy Orioles.

Quick Breakdown: Bad matchup, bad form, and a bad ballpark.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 7 3.43 3.76 27.1% 6.2% 35.7% 31.9% 19.8%
L14 2 4.79 12.00 16.7% 4.2% 29.7% 37.8% 13.5%

Al’s long lost cousin is having a career year, although the last two starts haven’t been nearly as impressive. The question here is whether Bundy’s last two starts were an aberration or whether that’s who we can expect moving forward. I’m leaning toward the former, but I do still have some concerns. Tonight he squares off against the Royals, who are a below-average offense against right-handed pitching. While they don’t strikeout often, this is still an exploitable matchup at home.

Quick Breakdown: We are getting a huge discount on Bundy tonight. In a favorable matchup at home, I’ll bite.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a ballpark upgrade playing in Camden Yards, which has been great for right-handed power over the years. Their matchup against Dylan Bundy is mediocre at best, although he has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to lefties since the start of last season. Mike Moustakas always has appeal as a one-off when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher, as he owns a .380 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.315 0.314 0.145 31.2% 4.9% 14.4% 38.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.277 0.392 0.079 32.1% 13.5% 28.4% 44.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,700
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.380 0.369 0.280 35.9% 6.7% 14.8% 31.5% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,300
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.349 0.342 0.222 38.7% 3.3% 17.9% 33.1% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,300
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.376 0.361 0.268 42.7% 12.7% 24.5% 27.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,500
6 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.294 0.272 0.086 30.3% 7.2% 20.5% 43.7% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,700
7 Jon Jay LEFT 0.324 0.294 0.085 29.6% 7.5% 18.1% 47.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,700
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.303 0.400 0.131 33.6% 6.8% 24.3% 41.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,400
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.276 0.322 0.094 27.6% 2.8% 15.1% 41.0% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the top stacks of the slate and should garner little ownership in tournaments. As mentioned above, this is a good ballpark for right-handed power. A matchup against Danny Duffy plays right into that, as he has allowed a .344 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties over the last two seasons. Manny Machado and Danny Valencia both own a .370+ xwOBA against southpaws and you can complete the stack with the likes of Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.325 0.311 0.151 31.9% 4.9% 24.0% 53.5% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
2 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.296 0.156 0.160 32.2% 7.9% 25.8% 49.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,400 LF $4,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.396 0.391 0.265 44.7% 7.4% 14.3% 37.6% SS $4,300 SS $4,900 3B $9,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.328 0.327 0.134 33.6% 6.2% 17.9% 42.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,400
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.370 0.315 0.197 37.8% 14.3% 20.3% 45.4% 3B $2,300 3B $3,100 1B $5,900
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.298 0.296 0.173 30.4% 5.7% 22.0% 44.3% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.307 0.254 0.121 33.3% 9.6% 41.0% 35.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,700
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.343 0.217 0.188 34.4% 4.4% 26.4% 39.3% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $5,000
9 Engelb Vielma RIGHT 0.209 0.256 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% SS $2,000 SS $2,300 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry (if batting second), Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Philadelphia
sanfranciscomlb Derek Holland philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-195 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.316 27.9% 10.6% 14.6% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.304 0.299 28.3% 9.4% 20.0% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.395 0.399 41.8% 11.8% 18.5% 33.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.259 27.6% 4.6% 30.5% 52.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 5.57 6.20 16.6% 12.0% 37.7% 38.4% 17.6%
2018 6 4.29 5.70 23.0% 9.5% 36.9% 41.2% 17.7%
L14 2 5.18 7.56 18.4% 13.2% 48.0% 46.2% 19.2%

When I look at Holland’s pitching table above, only one word comes to mind — YIKES. He struggled in 2017 and clearly hasn’t made enough adjustments this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Typically in Citizens Bank Park, that’s not a great combination for a pitcher. This is one of the smallest parks in the major leagues, which is why it’s always ranked near the top when it comes to home run production.

Quick Breakdown: Holland is an easy fade on the road in this ballpark.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,300
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 7 3.90 2.17 20.4% 6.4% 51.2% 21.6% 22.4%
L14 2 3.22 1.88 20.8% 3.8% 56.4% 35.0% 12.5%

I did not expect that start from Zach Eflin last night. That’s the kind of performance that I would expect from Nola, who owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. The dip in strikeouts this season is a small concern, but it could be due to the small sample size. There hasn’t been a change in his fastball velocity or in his pitch selection. The rest of his peripherals are appealing, as he owns a 51% ground ball rate and a 22% hard contact rate. The Giants aren’t thought of as a high-strikeout offense, but six of their projected starters have a k-rate of at least 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is one of the top pitching options on the board. He’s viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants see a ballpark boost playing in Philadelphia, but draw a difficult matchup against Aaron Nola. His strikeout rate is right around league average, but he induces a lot of ground balls and soft contact. Over the last two seasons combined, Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. I’m typically a fan of Brandon Belt when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher, but first base is loaded with options tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.298 0.250 0.121 27.4% 12.5% 21.9% 43.3% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 LF $5,700
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.348 0.482 0.154 35.2% 11.5% 18.2% 42.4% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.381 0.111 31.2% 9.1% 11.7% 47.5% C $3,400 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.425 0.504 0.278 43.1% 16.7% 21.7% 23.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.314 0.344 0.165 35.4% 4.4% 16.2% 42.6% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.316 0.330 0.144 34.6% 6.7% 21.8% 46.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 SS $5,800
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.300 0.250 0.109 36.8% 7.8% 25.7% 45.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.236 0.315 0.143 20.8% 4.6% 22.0% 48.1% 2B $3,500 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,400
9 Derek Holland LEFT 0.122 0.000 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $7,100 P $5,000 P $10,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ stack worked out nicely last night and I don’t mind going right back to the well. They draw another favorable matchup tonight, as they square off against Derek Holland. As mentioned above, Holland is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .300 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, and Aaron Altherr are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.370 0.369 0.156 25.8% 13.0% 11.6% 57.7% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.436 0.338 0.338 43.8% 26.9% 19.4% 33.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 1B $9,400
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.305 0.359 0.166 30.5% 3.5% 23.2% 50.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.371 0.413 0.266 40.6% 12.8% 18.9% 44.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.340 0.314 0.155 31.1% 13.0% 10.3% 50.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.319 0.426 0.195 32.9% 7.3% 13.0% 45.4% 3B $3,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.285 0.255 0.154 33.3% 3.7% 40.7% 33.3% SS $2,200 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,700
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.241 0.357 0.036 34.4% 8.3% 38.3% 53.1% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.191 0.342 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 9.1% 85.7% P $9,000 P $10,100 P $19,300

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Seattle Toronto
seattlemlb James Paxton torontomlb Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-110 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.282 23.0% 6.9% 24.6% 51.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.304 0.341 34.4% 9.0% 18.0% 64.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.272 33.1% 7.5% 31.2% 39.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.320 33.3% 6.9% 21.4% 59.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Paxton
james-paxton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,000 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 3.45 2.98 28.3% 6.7% 44.9% 30.3% 18.0%
2018 7 2.93 4.19 35.7% 9.5% 28.1% 34.1% 17.6%
L14 2 1.57 1.38 49.1% 7.6% 13.0% 34.8% 8.7%

Paxton was untouchable in his last start, striking out 16 batters in seven scoreless innings against the A’s. This is the Paxton that we saw in 2017 before he was injured. He currently boasts a swinging strike rate of 14.6%, which is the highest mark in his career. Even though a matchup against the Blue Jays in Toronto is less than ideal, Paxton’s strikeout upside puts him on my radar in tournaments. I’m always a fan of pitchers that have a high enough strikeout upside that giving up a couple of runs won’t kill their fantasy outing.

Quick Breakdown: There are safer options for cash games, but Paxton is an elite tournament play against the Blue Jays.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4%
2018 6 4.12 7.52 20.0% 10.7% 60.8% 48.1% 16.4%
L14 2 3.95 5.84 17.0% 3.8% 47.5% 45.2% 14.3%

Stroman has had some bad luck this season (.330 BABIP with a 20% HR/FB rate), but he hasn’t helped himself by walking 11% of the batters that he has faced. Luckily, we’ve seen his control improve in his last two starts (only one walk in each). He’s always had an elite ground ball rate, so I expect him to right the ship at anytime. Based on the projected lineup for the Mariners, he should have the platoon advantage in this matchup. At a price of only $5,900 on DraftKings, I have some interest in Stroman in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t the best matchup on paper, but Stroman may never be this cheap again.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners fare well against right-handed pitching and see a ballpark boost playing in Toronto. Marcus Stroman has allowed a staggering number of home runs this season, but he still owns a 61% ground ball rate. It’s hard for offenses to string together hits when they are hitting ground ball after ground ball. This isn’t a spot to stack the Mariners, but if you think Stroman’s struggles will continue, Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are both viable as one-offs in large-field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.271 0.294 0.078 17.2% 4.1% 14.4% 54.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 2B $8,300
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.300 0.347 0.133 26.2% 4.7% 15.1% 55.7% SS $3,200 SS $4,100 SS $8,500
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.400 0.455 0.194 40.1% 9.1% 12.4% 46.9% 2B $3,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,600
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.393 0.413 0.279 40.4% 6.6% 22.0% 40.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.370 0.366 0.205 38.1% 9.3% 16.1% 30.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.362 0.429 0.245 38.6% 9.2% 24.3% 39.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $8,900
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.327 0.456 0.183 35.8% 3.5% 24.1% 42.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 3B $7,300
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.336 0.383 0.261 40.3% 8.3% 36.9% 34.7% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,800
9 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.299 0.251 0.131 28.1% 7.4% 20.3% 43.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

We have one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball squaring off against one of the best left-handed hitting offenses in baseball. Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, and Justin Smoak all boast a .360+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO against southpaws. The problem is that the southpaw in question is James Paxton, who has a 36% strikeout rate this season. Over the last two years combined, Paxton has held righties to a .272 xwOBA. I’m more inclined to play Paxton here than I am the Blue Jays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.362 0.401 0.231 38.7% 8.6% 37.9% 35.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.274 0.375 42.9% 13.3% 22.5% 39.0% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $9,100
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.391 0.412 0.207 35.3% 11.2% 14.4% 39.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 1B $6,400
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.336 0.136 28.8% 8.4% 9.5% 45.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 2B $7,700
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.343 0.391 0.228 33.1% 5.6% 14.4% 39.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.336 0.332 0.114 35.9% 16.2% 27.3% 40.4% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
7 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.318 0.366 0.000 26.7% 5.6% 11.1% 66.7% OF $2,400 2B/SS $2,900 LF $5,500
8 Dalton Pompey RIGHT 0.441 0.194 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 CF $4,600
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.249 0.350 0.036 22.1% 8.5% 18.1% 43.3% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Tampa Bay
atlantamlb Sean Newcomb tampabaymlb Blake Snell
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -130 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.361 30.3% 10.0% 25.0% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.206 0.269 29.5% 8.3% 26.7% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.301 26.3% 12.7% 24.9% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.315 32.9% 10.4% 22.4% 42.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Newcomb
sean-newcomb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5%
2018 6 3.58 3.38 29.0% 10.3% 48.9% 28.4% 26.1%
L14 2 3.25 2.77 30.0% 8.0% 45.2% 32.3% 19.4%

Newcomb is having himself quite the season. In six starts, he has a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s kept the ball on the ground and has been able to induce a lot of soft and medium contact. Outside of a slightly above-average walk rate, he has no red flags. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Rays, whose projected lineup has a .313 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Being an underdog on the road should help keep his ownership reasonable, even though he is under-priced across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb feels too cheap to fade in this matchup.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 33.2% 18.8%
2018 7 3.46 2.55 27.8% 7.4% 38.8% 30.5% 21.0%
L14 2 3.30 2.57 25.0% 3.9% 47.2% 35.1% 21.6%

Snell is another young lefty that is off to a nice start this season. In seven starts, he owns a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has shown good control, which has always been his biggest weakness at the major league level. The Braves’ lineup can be intimidating, but Snell is pitching at home in a good ballpark. Much like Sean Newcomb, Snell is on my short list of potential tournament targets tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is under-priced given his recent form. I don’t love the matchup, but will have some shares in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Unless you skipped over the pitching portion of this game, then you should know that I’m high on Blake Snell. That obviously means that I have little interest in the Braves’ offense. They are underdogs on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate. Outside of an Ozzie Albie or a Ronald Acuna one-off, the Braves are an easy offense to avoid tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.400 0.313 0.326 38.0% 7.4% 9.5% 42.3% 2B $4,600 2B $5,100 2B $9,800
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.378 0.372 0.250 40.0% 0.0% 6.3% 46.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.383 0.482 0.245 36.1% 9.6% 22.5% 39.3% 1B $4,400 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.319 0.436 0.144 29.7% 8.2% 16.3% 51.0% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,200
5 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.279 0.485 0.125 22.3% 11.4% 25.7% 43.7% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,600
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.421 0.308 0.368 42.9% 7.1% 7.1% 28.6% C $3,000 C $3,600 C $7,400
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.356 0.382 0.262 36.4% 4.5% 20.5% 40.9% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.256 0.281 0.100 26.7% 4.8% 23.8% 64.3% 3B $2,000 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,800
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.270 0.279 0.062 18.5% 8.6% 12.1% 60.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been pesky at the plate this season, but that’s been more of a reason to fade pitchers against them than it has to target their hitters. They draw a difficult matchup against Sean Newcomb, who has held right-handed hitters to a .301 xwOBA and a 26% hard contact rate. Denard Span is the only lefty that is projected to draw the start for Tampa and he has an xwOBA under .300 against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.294 0.330 0.136 35.0% 6.2% 16.3% 42.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.363 0.392 0.268 40.2% 6.7% 26.9% 34.5% 1B $3,300 1B $3,400 1B $7,100
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.250 0.278 0.030 33.3% 0.0% 27.3% 58.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,000 3B $5,500
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.378 0.466 0.200 40.0% 6.1% 12.1% 55.0% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,600
5 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.320 0.386 0.215 39.7% 17.4% 27.0% 33.3% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,800
6 Denard Span LEFT 0.292 0.351 0.079 19.1% 9.9% 15.5% 53.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.258 0.273 0.134 29.6% 3.5% 34.0% 33.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
8 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.330 0.510 0.063 20.0% 21.5% 20.0% 45.7% OF $2,000 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,800
9 Johnny Field RIGHT 0.334 0.342 0.368 46.2% 5.0% 30.0% 38.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious