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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-01 18:40:08

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Mets at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard washingtonmlb Tommy Milone
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.269 24.1% 0.47 27.2% 45.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.176 0.049 50.0% 0.00 60.0% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.291 22.1% 0.74 25.7% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.427 0.361 50.0% 0.00 17.7% 42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3% 98.3 13.9%
2018 13 3.20 2.89 26.4% 4.8% 46.4% 23.1% 25.9% 97.4 14.4%
L14 2 4.51 1.80 15.6% 4.4% 40.0% 19.4% 30.6% 97.0 10.7%

We have an interesting schedule today and the slates are going to change depending on which site you are playing on. The early slate on FanDuel includes this game and the next three, while the early slate on DraftKings starts with the Yankees’ game and includes the next four. Basically, you only need to read this breakdown if you are playing the FanDuel early slate or the showdown slate on DraftKings.

Syndergaard is set to make his 14th start of the season. He has struggled to stay on the field in each of the last two seasons, the latest ailment being a case of hand, foot, and mouth disease (which I thought only babies could get). While it’s technically not an injury, he only threw 75 and 84 pitches in his last two starts before the All-Star break. At this point, the Mets just want to see him on the mound, they don’t want him to throw 110 pitches each start. I’ll take the wait and see approach with Syndergaard.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is certainly one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, but there are a few question marks.

Tommy Milone
tommy-milone-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 4.72 7.63 17.2% 6.3% 35.5% 30.2% 20.7% 88.0 7.9%
2018 1 2.64 5.40 27.3% 0.0% 43.8% 43.8% 18.8% 87.1 15.5%
L14 1 2.64 5.40 27.3% 0.0% 43.8% 43.8% 18.8% 87.1 15.5%

Milone was serviceable in his first major league start of the season, striking out six batters in five innings of work, while allowing three runs to the Marlins. It was basically the start that we should have expected, as he has bounced around the majors over the last few seasons. While he doesn’t have an elite skill set, he does have an elite matchup. The projected lineup for the Mets has an average ISO of .133 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I wish Milone was cheaper or a bigger favorite (win is important on FD). I’ll likely look elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have struggled against left-handed pitching for most of the season and are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Tommy Milone did pitch well in the minors before getting called up, but he is still Tommy Milone. In his last full season in the majors (2017), he allowed a .441 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Wilmer Flores and Jose Bautista both bat from the right side and both own at least a .355 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.143 28.6% 4.5% 23.9% 48.4% SS $2,500 N/A N/A
2 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.299 0.183 45.8% 10.3% 35.1% 57.4% OF $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.356 0.106 33.3% 8.5% 8.5% 30.8% 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.367 0.246 38.5% 23.5% 27.2% 30.8% OF $2,700 N/A N/A
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.335 0.188 30.2% 9.3% 31.5% 54.0% OF $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.322 0.109 31.4% 14.3% 19.6% 51.4% C $2,500 N/A N/A
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.296 0.025 27.8% 9.0% 29.2% 51.9% OF $2,000 N/A N/A
8 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.688 0.000 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2B $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.109 0.200 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $9,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.340 0.133 26.2% 19.9% 26.9% 36.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Amed Rosario, Wilmer Flores, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals’ offense went bonkers last night against Steven Matz. I said that it was a great stolen base matchup, what I didn’t see was the entire offense going off. At one point, Jose Reyes was pitching to Ryan Zimmerman. It should be a much different story today, as the Nationals square off against Noah Syndergaard. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA this season. He does give up quite a few stolen bases if you want to give Trea Turner or Juan Soto a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.403 0.119 43.4% 10.3% 13.8% 46.7% OF $2,900 N/A N/A
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.329 0.151 33.5% 8.3% 21.4% 51.8% SS $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.383 0.205 36.9% 9.2% 14.9% 36.5% 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.391 0.279 42.7% 18.3% 26.7% 36.8% OF $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.400 0.297 41.7% 10.3% 20.5% 31.8% 1B $2,600 N/A N/A
6 Juan Soto LEFT 0.381 0.219 36.3% 17.0% 18.8% 50.4% OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.357 0.118 15.4% 6.5% 8.7% 30.8% 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.281 0.111 27.5% 8.8% 14.3% 38.2% C $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Tommy Milone LEFT 0.042 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $7,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.330 0.167 30.8% 9.9% 21.0% 47.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Alex Cobb nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-320 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.380 0.371 35.7% 1.41 17.7% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.361 40.3% 0.98 20.6% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.352 32.0% 1.54 11.9% 57.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.310 29.9% 1.15 22.0% 49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,500
Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 22 of 24 Salary Rank: 22 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9% 91.7 6.7%
2018 19 4.63 6.08 14.8% 6.2% 50.1% 33.7% 19.5% 91.9 7.1%
L14 3 4.68 3.12 12.5% 5.6% 50.9% 29.3% 22.4% 91.7 6.6%

Cobb is not a pitcher that I trust in favorable matchups, let alone one on the road against the Yankees. In 19 starts this season, he owns a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He doesn’t fare well against left or right-handed hitters and he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball. Need I say more?

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 24 Salary Rank: 4 of 24 Salary Rank: 5 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 4.08 3.55 22.6% 8.4% 52.8% 28.0% 16.8% 93.0 11.9%
2018 20 4.35 5.08 21.3% 9.8% 48.2% 34.7% 17.2% 93.3 10.1%
L14 2 4.14 1.74 25.6% 11.6% 53.8% 38.5% 26.9% 93.1 8.9%

Gray will be everyone’s favorite pitching option in the early slate. He finally had a good start at home, he’s affordable across the industry, and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. His numbers on the season aren’t elite, but we’ve seen spikes in his k-rate and his ground ball rate over the last few weeks. When he’s doing those two well, everything else will follow. We should continue to stream pitchers against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .305 with a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Even though I won’t be taking this route myself, the Orioles do offer some leverage on the field in tournaments. First off, they will be low owned because they are the Orioles. And secondly, they are facing a pitcher that projects to garner a ton of ownership. If their offense can wake up and score some runs, it would give you quite the boost over the rest of the field. However, my plan is to eat the chalk with Gray and look to differentiate elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.272 0.077 26.5% 4.6% 27.5% 46.5% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,400
2 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.310 0.157 31.4% 12.1% 25.5% 47.6% OF $2,100 3B/OF $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.326 0.172 32.0% 3.3% 18.4% 40.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.358 0.197 41.0% 7.1% 24.7% 38.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 DH $7,500
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.296 0.118 33.8% 7.6% 35.6% 41.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.364 0.155 33.5% 9.0% 24.3% 51.7% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
7 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.283 0.133 29.2% 7.6% 18.2% 43.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 RF $5,700
8 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.258 0.121 31.8% 5.7% 31.4% 36.4% 3B $2,100 3B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.172 24.2% 3.1% 28.6% 40.0% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.305 0.145 31.5% 6.7% 26.0% 43.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are once again -320 favorites at home against the Orioles. We really shouldn’t be surprised, as they take on a pitcher with one of the lowest strikeout rates (15%) in baseball. Alex Cobb doesn’t offer much upside at this stage of his career and has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, every hitter in this Yankees’ projected lineup other than Brett Gardner has a hard contact rate of at least 34% against right-handed pitching. You can stack the Yankees or play them individually. They are one of the top offenses to target on the schedule today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.302 0.157 28.6% 11.7% 14.7% 51.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.307 0.180 34.6% 7.8% 32.8% 51.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,100 RF $9,800
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.348 0.255 38.9% 8.3% 13.0% 34.3% SS $3,800 SS $5,100 SS $9,700
4 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.352 0.182 38.5% 14.0% 19.3% 44.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 CF $9,100
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.380 0.231 38.3% 6.3% 26.7% 30.7% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,600
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.325 0.250 42.4% 8.3% 26.4% 36.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.347 0.177 37.6% 3.8% 17.2% 50.2% 3B $3,500 3B $4,200 3B $8,200
8 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.344 0.099 36.2% 10.8% 22.1% 39.1% 2B $2,700 1B/2B $4,000 2B $7,500
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.343 0.223 35.1% 10.2% 21.3% 42.5% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,300
Team Averages 0.339 0.195 36.7% 9.0% 21.5% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Detroit
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano detroitmlb Mike Fiers
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.395 41.9% 1.66 14.5% 41.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.354 38.4% 1.89 17.1% 33.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.324 31.9% 1.60 17.8% 48.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.335 35.2% 1.20 17.6% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 21 of 24 Salary Rank: 21 of 24 Salary Rank: 21 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5% 95.3 8.7%
2018 20 4.87 5.07 16.3% 8.6% 44.9% 36.7% 20.2% 94.2 7.8%
L14 1 4.90 2.35 14.7% 5.9% 38.5% 33.3% 22.2% 94.4 14.0%

Romano doesn’t have great numbers as a whole (4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16%), but he’ll have a good fantasy outing every now and then. Like many pitchers in baseball, he’s significantly better at home than he is on the road. I know that we just saw Homer Bailey pitch well against the Tigers, but I have a hard time trusting a pitcher that is an underdog on the road in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Romano in all formats.

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 9 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1% 89.7 9.1%
2018 19 4.50 3.49 17.5% 5.1% 39.4% 36.2% 17.6% 88.9 8.4%
L14 2 4.70 2.19 14.6% 5.5% 47.7% 27.3% 13.6% 90.8 6.3%

Fiers may have a low ERA this season, but his peripheral statistics suggest some regression in the last two months of the season. He currently owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a hard contact rate of 36%. He doesn’t have the elite swing and miss stuff that we are looking for in a pitcher and he doesn’t have the best matchup either. While the Reds are looking to the future, they still have capable hitters in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: I’m more interested in the two offenses in this game than I am in the pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds couldn’t get anything going against Matt Boyd last night, but draw an exploitable matchup today against Mike Fiers. In addition to his low strikeout rate, he has allowed a .335+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Given the fact that they are underdogs, the Reds should fly under the radar today. Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez make an intriguing three-man stack, as they all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.306 0.105 32.0% 6.0% 12.1% 36.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.360 0.190 39.6% 8.2% 17.0% 37.7% 2B $3,700 2B $4,800 2B $9,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.458 0.168 38.8% 18.9% 12.8% 33.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.381 0.255 51.1% 9.2% 23.1% 35.6% 3B $4,100 3B $4,600 3B $9,400
5 Mason Williams LEFT 0.063 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.332 0.110 39.9% 9.7% 16.9% 41.1% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,500
7 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.312 0.020 30.6% 7.1% 25.0% 36.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
8 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.291 0.194 39.7% 6.3% 27.7% 45.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.245 0.069 20.1% 10.4% 24.2% 46.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.305 0.123 32.4% 8.4% 17.6% 34.7%

Elite Plays – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Mason Williams, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers’ stack didn’t go as planned last night. I believe they ended up with 23 fewer runs than the Nationals. While they don’t have enough lefties in their lineup to truly take advantage of the splits for Sal Romano, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid this offense completely. On the season, Romano has allowed a .395 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate, which brings Niko Goodrum and Jeimer Candelario into the mix. I always have a hard time fading Nick Castellanos if you want to make it a low-owned three-man stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.290 0.159 31.1% 4.1% 32.4% 39.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.382 0.192 49.1% 5.9% 23.4% 34.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
3 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.329 0.220 35.5% 8.9% 32.2% 40.3% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,800 1B $7,200
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.070 41.4% 7.2% 9.2% 39.9% C $2,500 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.301 0.202 34.6% 11.9% 24.6% 38.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.288 0.154 41.1% 6.2% 30.3% 43.0% 1B $2,300 1B/C $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.202 0.133 23.8% 6.3% 28.1% 52.4% OF $2,000 1B $3,200 LF $6,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.267 0.097 24.2% 3.5% 10.9% 46.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,700
9 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $5,600 P $6,600 P $8,000
Team Averages 0.300 0.136 36.8% 6.0% 21.2% 37.1%

Elite Plays – Niko Goodrum

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Minnesota
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco minnesotamlb Adalberto Mejia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.305 36.7% 1.41 28.1% 42.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.160 0.307 22.2% 0.00 18.2% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.311 39.1% 0.97 26.3% 42.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.455 23.5% 0.96 13.3% 27.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,400 Salary: $22,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 24 Salary Rank: 1 of 24 Salary Rank: 1 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4% 94.3 13.4%
2018 18 3.32 4.03 27.0% 5.4% 42.2% 37.8% 14.2% 93.4 13.6%
L14 1 2.02 2.35 37.0% 3.7% 50.0% 62.5% 25.0% 94.2 17.3%

Carrasco looked great in his last start and has basically looked great on the road throughout his career. It’s so strange to see a pitcher with such wonky home/road splits, especially when his home ballpark is fairly neutral to hitters and pitchers. Whatever the reason is, we should continue to believe in the trend. He draws a road start today against the Twins. While they have a solid lineup to throw out there when facing a right-handed pitcher, Carrasco has a good track record against this offense (with the exception of Joe Mauer).

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is viable in all formats.

Adalberto Mejia
adalberto-mejia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 22 of 24 Salary Rank: 20 of 24 Salary Rank: 20 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.95 4.50 19.2% 9.9% 39.3% 31.7% 19.1% 92.5 10.6%
2018 2 6.43 4.82 8.7% 10.9% 30.6% 24.3% 29.7% 92.4 8.5%
L14 1 5.84 1.69 11.5% 7.7% 28.6% 28.6% 23.8% 92.2 8.3%

Mejia is one of the top pitching prospects for the Twins, but he just can’t seem to figure it out at the major league level. He struggled in his 21 starts last season and was shelled in his first two starts this season. Until he proves that he can pitch at this level, we should continue to avoid him in all formats. It doesn’t help that he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball. The Indians’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .346 with a 40% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mejia in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians should be considered one of the top stacks of the early slate. They have plenty of firepower in their lineup and draw a favorable matchup against Adalberto Mejia, who has really struggled against right-handed hitters at the major league level. The sample size is small from this season, but he has allowed a .455 xwOBA to batters from the right side. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all bat from the right side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.416 0.223 42.9% 9.5% 11.9% 45.4% SS $4,700 SS $5,800 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.320 0.115 25.3% 4.9% 8.8% 54.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,000
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.380 0.241 41.2% 6.0% 9.5% 40.6% 3B $5,100 3B $5,900 IF/OF $11,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.378 0.133 45.2% 15.3% 21.4% 27.4% 1B $4,000 1B $4,900 1B $8,900
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.355 0.200 36.8% 7.3% 23.2% 36.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,800 1B $9,000
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.249 0.118 46.2% 5.6% 22.2% 61.5% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.325 0.181 34.4% 11.6% 21.1% 30.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.416 0.268 53.1% 9.9% 27.2% 26.5% C $2,400 C $3,900 C $7,600
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.275 0.000 32.3% 6.2% 17.3% 46.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
Team Averages 0.346 0.164 39.7% 8.5% 18.1% 41.0%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes (DK)

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins have struggled against Carlos Carrasco in the past and they are facing him at home (which is actually bad since he has such good road splits). While their lineup is pretty intimidating when facing a right-handed pitcher, I don’t feel the need to play any of them in this spot. In addition to having an above-average strikeout rate, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.408 0.103 42.1% 12.1% 11.6% 49.4% 1B $2,300 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.353 0.241 38.7% 7.2% 16.5% 31.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.332 0.133 28.1% 16.7% 24.1% 38.7% SS $2,600 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.375 0.195 40.9% 11.0% 19.9% 28.7% 1B $2,400 1B $3,500 1B $6,500
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.330 0.174 39.4% 12.0% 13.8% 39.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,700
6 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.301 0.234 45.2% 7.5% 40.8% 41.9% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
7 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.320 0.147 40.4% 8.2% 23.3% 35.2% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.4% 5.3% 25.3% 48.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.341 0.183 41.5% 9.2% 23.2% 40.9% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,500
Team Averages 0.349 0.182 39.6% 9.9% 22.1% 39.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Toronto Oakland
torontomlb Marcus Stroman oaklandmlb Sean Manaea
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-175 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.382 38.2% 0.68 15.6% 61.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.280 25.0% 0.62 17.0% 50.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.304 36.8% 1.13 20.6% 62.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.356 40.7% 1.44 17.1% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 5 of 24 Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: 12 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4% 93.3 10.0%
2018 13 4.05 5.42 18.6% 8.8% 61.7% 39.1% 20.4% 92.3 9.7%
L14 2 3.73 3.00 22.9% 6.3% 51.5% 27.3% 30.3% 92.3 10.9%

The first two games of this series have been lopsided and Marcus Stroman is hoping to change that. While I’m always interested in a pitcher with a high ground ball rate and a decent strikeout rate, I can’t think of many worse matchups for Stroman. As mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, the A’s were built to hit fly balls. This should negate Stroman’s biggest strength. The fact that he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for any mistakes leaves him off my radar in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Sean Manaea
sean-manaea-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 24 Salary Rank: 6 of 24 Salary Rank: 10 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 4.51 4.37 20.2% 8.0% 44.1% 33.3% 14.8% 91.6 11.4%
2018 21 4.37 3.38 16.9% 4.6% 44.0% 38.1% 14.7% 90.6 10.1%
L14 2 4.56 2.84 13.0% 2.2% 48.6% 30.8% 18.0% 90.1 13.4%

Manaea hasn’t been the dominant pitcher that we’ve seen at times over the last two seasons. His form hasn’t been great and his strikeout rate is sitting at only 17% on the season. He has really struggled against right-handed power and this Blue Jays’ offense is loaded with it. They are projected to have eight righties in their lineup today, four of which have an xwOBA of at least .350 against southpaws. I know this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but I would rather side with the two offenses in this one.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Manaea in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t been able to cook up many runs so far in this series, but that might change today against Sean Manaea. As mentioned above, he has really struggled against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .356 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate. Toronto should fly under the radar here, even though their lineup is littered with capable righties. Randal Grichuk, Russell Martin, Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales, and Yangervis Solarte all boast a .335+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.351 0.143 28.9% 7.7% 24.4% 38.5% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.338 0.019 31.6% 16.9% 23.1% 55.3% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,600
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.318 0.162 27.4% 10.2% 22.0% 48.8% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.369 0.304 32.4% 7.3% 28.2% 39.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 LF $7,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.374 0.143 41.5% 9.4% 22.9% 44.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
6 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.237 31.9% 5.7% 11.3% 38.8% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,400
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.272 0.065 28.6% 6.0% 19.4% 42.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,300 SS $6,300
8 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.418 0.059 30.8% 10.5% 21.1% 38.5% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $3,200 3B $6,800
9 Dwight Smith LEFT 0.232 0.111 14.3% 9.1% 18.2% 33.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,400
Team Averages 0.334 0.138 29.7% 9.2% 21.2% 42.2%

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin (DK), Kendrys Morales, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

This is a sneaky spot for the A’s offense. I always like targeting fly-ball hitters against ground ball pitchers, especially ones that have low strikeout rates like Marcus Stroman. Each of the first five batters in the A’s projected lineup has an elite fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. They also all have a .340+ xwOBA against righties. I typically don’t stack against Stroman, but might have to make an exception today in Oakland.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Nick Martini LEFT 0.398 0.200 55.0% 12.9% 16.1% 35.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 LF $7,300
2 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.375 0.212 43.0% 10.9% 22.6% 39.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.344 0.230 35.7% 12.2% 19.9% 35.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,600 2B $9,400
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.426 0.314 50.3% 7.0% 25.6% 34.5% OF $4,200 OF $5,200 LF $9,600
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.407 0.258 51.4% 11.4% 24.6% 32.0% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.377 0.226 45.7% 5.1% 19.6% 42.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.340 0.094 37.8% 9.8% 23.0% 41.2% OF $2,300 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
8 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.300 0.094 26.5% 7.3% 17.1% 43.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,600
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.312 0.073 38.8% 5.8% 13.9% 43.9% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.364 0.189 42.7% 9.2% 20.3% 38.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Martini, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious