MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-22 19:02:30

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Toronto
			David Hess							Thomas Pannone
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-185							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.362	29.2%	2.34	14.5%	38.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.256	33.3%	0.00	36.4%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.364	0.361	31.4%	1.78	13.0%	31.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.147	0.140	25.0%	0.00	33.3%	50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
David Hess
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$4,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	12	5.60	5.95	13.8%	9.6%	34.9%	30.3%	20.6%	92.0	8.0%
	L14	2	6.28	3.86	12.2%	14.3%	42.9%	20.0%	22.9%	91.7	7.4%

There are five early games on the schedule, but with this one starting so early, it is not included in the early only slates on FanDuel or DraftKings. Hess has had a forgettable season for Baltimore, posting a 5.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 10%. He checks into this game as a large underdog against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .347 with a hard contact rate of 38% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Hess is an easy fade in the single-game showdown slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Thomas Pannone
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:			23 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	0	2.22	4.15	35.3%	5.9%	44.4%	30.0%	20.0%	89.1	12.0%
	L14	0	2.22	4.15	35.3%	5.9%	44.4%	30.0%	20.0%	89.1	12.0%

Pannone is one of the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospects. He’s made four relief appearances this season, but today will mark his first career major league start. In six Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.63 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26%. He likely won’t be with the team for very long, so if he’s pitching well, the Blue Jays have no real reason to limit his pitch count. He draws an excellent matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .280 with a strikeout rate of 29% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In the single-game slate, Pannone is viable. With that said, he does offer quite the wide range of potential outcomes.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and are facing a rookie pitcher that is making his first career major league start. This is typically a spot where I would load up on an offense, but the Orioles don’t have much to offer offensively. They have a single batter (Jonathan Villar) with an xwOBA over .320 against southpaws this season. Due to the fact that this game is only featured in the showdown slates, Villar, Adam Jones, and Renato Nunez are viable. In a larger slate, Baltimore would be an easy offense to avoid.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.191	0.000	0.0%	11.1%	44.4%	33.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.341	0.243	46.9%	5.4%	28.4%	53.1%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.293	0.100	24.0%	7.7%	23.8%	66.7%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.319	0.108	29.7%	2.2%	9.7%	39.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.297	0.079	26.9%	9.1%	29.5%	26.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.290	0.152	33.3%	10.8%	28.4%	40.9%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.269	0.152	38.3%	8.1%	36.9%	40.0%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.280	0.071	29.6%	6.7%	21.3%	46.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.239	0.000	21.4%	0.0%	36.4%	50.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.280	0.101	27.8%	6.8%	28.8%	44.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Adam Jones, Renato Nunez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are the clear offense to target in this game, even though they will be popular in the showdown slate. They are playing at home and they draw an exploitable matchup against David Hess, who has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. We know the Blue Jays fare well against right-handed pitching (plenty of blue and green boxes in the table below) and it’s a good situation for a full stack. Seven of their projected starters own a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.353	0.197	38.5%	12.5%	26.7%	31.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.315	0.111	30.3%	5.6%	20.0%	54.8%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.408	0.246	38.4%	16.2%	25.6%	30.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.431	0.186	46.1%	12.9%	19.8%	44.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.344	0.254	35.3%	5.7%	23.7%	37.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.332	0.154	31.2%	15.9%	23.8%	48.6%	3B	$2,500	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.341	0.168	34.5%	4.0%	20.2%	35.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.346	0.183	33.5%	3.3%	12.0%	42.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.255	0.033	50.0%	6.1%	33.3%	36.8%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.347	0.170	37.5%	9.1%	22.8%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Milwaukee
			Robert Stephenson							Freddy Peralta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-230							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.359	0.363	50.0%	0.00	27.8%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.371	42.9%	1.30	28.2%	30.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.336	50.0%	0.00	7.7%	12.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.192	0.253	38.6%	0.52	32.8%	34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Robert Stephenson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,100	Salary:		$8,100
	Salary Rank:			28 of 30	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2017	11	4.99	4.68	22.5%	13.8%	37.5%	38.4%	12.8%	93.7	12.6%
	2018	2	8.22	7.94	19.4%	29.0%	25.0%	50.0%	25.0%	93.3	12.0%
	L14	2	8.25	7.94	19.4%	29.0%	25.0%	50.0%	25.0%	93.3	12.0%

The first game featured in the early slate features the Reds and the Brewers. Stephenson didn’t fare well in his 11 starts last season and he has struggled in his first two major league starts of 2018. It’s not all bad news though, as he is one of the team’s top pitching prospects. He has an electric fastball and he posted a 29% strikeout rate at the Triple-A level this season. His biggest issue has always been his control. He’s basically had a double-digit walk rate at every level that he’s pitched at. Given the matchup and the ballpark, he offers more risk than upside in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: For now, continue to take a wait and see approach with Stephenson.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Freddy Peralta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:			14 of 30	Salary Rank:			16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30

	2018	12	4.10	4.48	30.5%	13.9%	32.1%	40.7%	15.0%	90.8	11.2%
	L14	2	6.16	10.00	17.8%	17.8%	39.3%	58.6%	17.2%	89.8	6.8%

Peralta has come crashing back down to earth in his last two starts, but it’s worth noting that they were both on the road. Like many young pitchers, he’s had much more success at home (24 fantasy points per game) than he has on the road (14 fantasy points per game). He is basically a two-pitch pitcher and we sort of expected the big leagues to figure him out eventually. While we’ve seen that come to fruition, I’m willing to buy low on Peralta in a favorable matchup against the short-handed Reds, whose projected lineup has an average k-rate of 29% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Peralta is one of the top plays of the slate, even in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and are facing a young pitcher that hasn’t been in the best of form. A case can certainly be made for their offense. The problem is that their current lineup isn’t all that intimidating. They only have four hitters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .310 against right-handed pitching this season — Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Tucker Barnhart, and Curt Casali. With Freddy Peralta being tough on righties, Gennett and Barnhart are really the only two hitters on my radar here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.252	0.071	19.1%	9.3%	23.4%	43.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,700
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.295	0.112	31.0%	5.7%	12.2%	36.8%	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,400
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.345	0.183	38.7%	7.3%	18.3%	39.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,900
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.370	0.233	48.0%	8.5%	23.4%	37.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,900	3B	$8,700
5	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.306	0.186	42.6%	7.0%	25.4%	45.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,300
6	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.283	0.077	42.9%	3.6%	21.4%	55.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.337	0.129	40.5%	10.1%	15.3%	40.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,900	C	$7,600
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.336	0.167	33.3%	11.1%	20.6%	37.5%	C	$3,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Robert Stephenson	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,100	P	$8,100
	Team Averages		0.280	0.129	32.9%	7.0%	28.9%	37.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

The Brewers have scored a bunch of runs in this series, but my Milwaukee stacks have been ruined by one batter — Mike Moustakas. The worst part is that he’s been my favorite hitter in their lineup each of the past two nights. They draw another favorable matchup tonight, as they square off against Robert Stephenson, who has bad control and who has never been able to pitch well at the major league level. A full stack is viable once again, while Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Moustakas, and Travis Shaw stand out as elite plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.384	0.200	46.4%	9.4%	24.4%	53.2%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,300	CF	$9,500
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.326	0.089	35.4%	12.3%	17.9%	62.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,900
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.374	0.230	45.3%	9.7%	15.2%	30.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,300
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.397	0.298	46.6%	10.2%	26.9%	31.7%	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,700
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.396	0.282	41.8%	12.7%	16.6%	33.2%	2B	$4,200	2B/3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.263	0.209	27.2%	1.7%	24.4%	45.3%	SS	$2,500	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
7	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.366	0.293	51.3%	9.8%	33.6%	30.3%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,800	1B	$8,800
8	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.314	0.141	33.1%	5.3%	20.2%	39.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
9	Freddy Peralta	RIGHT	0.099	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	50.0%	88.9%	P	$7,900	P	$7,500	P	$14,800
	Team Averages		0.324	0.194	40.0%	7.9%	25.5%	46.0%

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Schoop, Eric Thames

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Chicago White Sox
			Kyle Gibson							Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CWS-105							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.338	39.6%	0.75	19.7%	41.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.248	0.318	31.0%	1.13	22.7%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.309	39.3%	0.98	25.2%	54.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.303	25.1%	0.84	19.2%	38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	29	4.67	5.07	17.5%	8.7%	50.8%	35.8%	15.4%	92.0	10.0%
	2018	25	4.21	3.51	22.5%	9.5%	47.6%	39.4%	18.8%	92.9	11.7%
	L14	3	4.94	3.79	15.0%	10.0%	53.4%	45.0%	16.7%	93.5	9.1%

Gibson has improved this season, but he’s an average major league pitcher (at best). In his 25 starts, he has a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 48%. He draws one of the best matchups of the slate, but he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. He’s not my favorite pitcher to target in the early slate, but I certainly won’t talk anyone out of targeting him against the White Sox. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with a strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson is viable here, but likely won’t make my final early slate lineup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Carlos Rodon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2017	12	4.21	4.15	25.6%	10.4%	44.1%	32.1%	12.8%	93.1	10.3%
	2018	12	4.62	2.69	19.9%	9.0%	40.5%	26.2%	18.6%	93.1	9.7%
	L14	2	4.41	1.69	18.6%	5.1%	35.7%	23.3%	25.6%	92.4	10.0%

Rodon is certainly capable of sustaining an ERA under three, but not with the way that he has pitched this season. In other words, he’s incredibly talented, but the lack of strikeouts has led to a higher SIERA. Luckily, he’s been able to induce a lot of soft contact and bring his walk rate down. There are few matchups in baseball more favorable for a southpaw than the Twins. Their projected lineup has a .300 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 24%. Rodon is my favorite pitcher in this game, although he makes more sense in tournaments than in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: Rodon is an elite tournament play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have struggled against left-handed pitching all season and draw a tough matchup today against Carlos Rodon. He has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters and he owns an elite soft contact rate of 26%. It’s never a good sign when two of your best hitters against lefties both bat from the left side of the plate. Outside of a Miguel Sano or Tyler Austin one-off in tournaments, the Twins can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.350	0.105	39.5%	8.5%	17.9%	53.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.282	0.145	33.6%	4.2%	19.2%	42.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,300
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.242	0.103	44.4%	0.0%	22.0%	30.2%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,300
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.233	0.175	29.4%	9.4%	37.5%	41.2%	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.289	0.067	41.5%	8.8%	19.3%	42.7%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.337	0.207	39.4%	9.5%	21.2%	33.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
7	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.289	0.093	29.3%	10.7%	20.2%	34.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.442	0.371	39.0%	9.9%	31.0%	34.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
9	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.239	0.099	22.5%	8.8%	28.8%	42.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.300	0.152	35.4%	7.8%	24.1%	39.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano (GPP), Tyler Austin (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have some upside in their lineup, but plenty of strikeouts as well. This is likely why we see such inconsistent production from them on a nightly basis. Their matchup against Kyle Gibson is fairly simple — he has allowed a .338 xwOBA to lefties and he has held righties to a .309 xwOBA on a 54% ground ball rate. I won’t be going overboard with my White Sox exposure, but Yoan Moncada, Nick Delmonico, and Daniel Palka are all viable depending on where they bat in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.276	0.164	28.1%	5.6%	25.5%	47.8%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.310	0.168	29.0%	6.4%	19.0%	47.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
3	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.330	0.211	36.8%	11.4%	36.9%	39.8%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.327	0.257	39.5%	4.6%	35.2%	42.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.325	0.209	35.6%	3.1%	26.2%	45.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
6	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.321	0.160	31.2%	8.2%	20.9%	44.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
7	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.331	0.196	38.1%	10.3%	35.2%	31.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.351	0.172	27.7%	10.5%	17.4%	37.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.252	0.106	28.0%	4.4%	28.5%	36.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.314	0.183	32.7%	7.2%	27.2%	41.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Nick Delmonico, Daniel Palka

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Texas								Oakland
			Mike Minor							Edwin Jackson
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.283	37.3%	1.25	21.8%	49.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.275	0.327	34.4%	1.14	17.6%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.362	38.6%	1.51	19.2%	33.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.349	36.9%	0.98	18.8%	35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Minor
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:		$11,900
	Salary Rank:			17 of 30	Salary Rank:			21 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2017	0	3.16	2.55	28.7%	7.2%	42.4%	27.6%	22.5%	94.4	11.9%
	2018	22	4.28	4.61	19.7%	5.3%	36.0%	38.4%	19.7%	92.6	10.0%
	L14	1	6.14	6.35	8.3%	4.2%	33.3%	19.1%	38.1%	93.5	13.1%

Minor had a nice start to the season, but his production has dropped off a cliff. In total, he owns a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, but those numbers were significantly better in the first couple months of the season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. While fly-ball pitchers do fare well in this ballpark, it’s hard to justify playing Minor given his form. He comes into the game as a large underdog against the A’s, whose projected lineup has a .337 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Minor in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Edwin Jackson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:		$15,100
	Salary Rank:			18 of 30	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2017	13	5.03	5.21	17.7%	8.6%	37.0%	30.8%	22.4%	93.5	10.0%
	2018	10	4.72	2.58	18.1%	8.0%	37.1%	35.6%	19.0%	92.9	8.6%
	L14	2	5.34	1.46	16.7%	10.4%	31.4%	45.7%	11.4%	92.6	8.5%

Jackson is not nearly as talented as his shiny 2.58 ERA wants you to believe. In his ten starts, he owns a 4.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a hard contact rate of 36% this season. While the Rangers have plenty of strikeouts in their lineups, they tend to fare well against low-strikeout pitchers (with last night being one of the exceptions). I get that Jackson is a large favorite at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but I will take my chances with Freddy Peralta at a cheaper price point.

Quick Breakdown: Jackson feels overpriced given his matchup and the fact that regression could be knocking on his door soon.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are a sneaky offense to target in the early slate. Given the fact that Edwin Jackson has an ERA below 3.00 and the fact that they couldn’t get anything going against Brett Anderson last night should keep their ownership at a very low level. I won’t be stacking Texas by any means, but there are a few intriguing tournament plays here. Jackson has allowed a .327 xwOBA to lefties and a .349 xwOBA to righties this season. Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, and Joey Gallo all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.420	0.232	44.5%	15.4%	22.0%	47.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,000
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.356	0.230	46.2%	8.8%	23.4%	39.3%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.300	0.122	34.3%	6.5%	15.0%	53.0%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,500
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.366	0.169	38.1%	9.6%	18.4%	55.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.332	0.201	35.6%	8.4%	15.5%	44.9%	3B	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.389	0.263	47.2%	15.2%	33.0%	29.9%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,400	1B	$8,000
7	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.320	0.196	32.9%	9.2%	30.3%	40.1%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.322	0.215	47.0%	9.6%	35.2%	31.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,700
9	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.258	0.064	46.0%	11.4%	46.6%	42.9%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.340	0.188	41.3%	10.5%	26.6%	42.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Rougned Odor (GPP), Nomar Mazara (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland

There will either be fireworks or plenty of loud outs from the A’s today. They are facing a struggling fly-ball pitcher, while their lineup is loaded with hitters that have high fly-ball rates. This can lead to home run production or a lot of fly-outs that will end innings quickly. Given the way my rosters are shaking out, I’m hoping it’s the former. On the season, Mike Minor has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.343	0.205	38.7%	10.2%	19.8%	36.3%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
2	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.312	0.190	44.9%	8.9%	23.7%	43.8%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.351	0.132	47.2%	8.0%	19.5%	32.0%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.366	0.256	48.7%	11.8%	29.4%	39.7%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,300
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.345	0.139	46.0%	7.7%	23.1%	36.3%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.379	0.173	36.0%	10.3%	18.6%	49.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
7	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.369	0.179	55.8%	10.9%	27.3%	44.7%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
8	Ramon Laureano	RIGHT	0.250	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	38.5%	37.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,400
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.320	0.108	35.0%	10.4%	14.2%	40.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.337	0.154	41.9%	8.7%	23.8%	39.9%

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Chad Pinder

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Seattle
			Charlie Morton							Marco Gonzales
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.313	40.5%	0.99	37.5%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.353	0.355	41.1%	1.69	14.3%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.267	23.5%	0.80	23.1%	52.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.321	34.6%	0.89	22.5%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:			4 of 30	Salary Rank:			4 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	25	3.70	3.62	26.4%	8.1%	51.8%	26.9%	22.1%	95.0	10.9%
	2018	24	3.45	2.85	29.8%	9.5%	48.4%	29.9%	21.5%	95.8	12.5%
	L14	3	4.22	2.50	22.9%	8.6%	39.1%	21.3%	19.2%	95.2	9.3%

Morton is the easy choice at pitcher in the early slate, especially on multi-pitcher sites. After Morton, it’s just a matter of what you want to do at SP2. In 24 starts this season, Morton owns a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a ground ball rate of 48%. In a different slate, he wouldn’t be a plug and play, but we don’t have much to work with pitching wise in this four-game slate. The Mariners are far from an ideal matchup, but Morton offers the highest floor/ceiling combination and his price has come way down across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:			19 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%	91.5	9.1%
	2018	24	3.78	3.91	21.3%	4.8%	45.2%	35.7%	15.6%	90.2	9.2%
	L14	2	4.99	9.90	13.5%	5.8%	35.0%	51.2%	12.2%	89.4	6.1%

Gonzales has had a nice season for the Mariners. In 24 starts, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 5%. While those numbers are appealing, he hasn’t been in the best of form recently and he draws a tough matchup against the Astros. Houston’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .357 with a strikeout rate of only 19% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: With the Astros close to full strength, Gonzales can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing a capable southpaw in Marco Gonzales. On the season, he has allowed a .355 xwOBA to lefties and a .321 xwOBA to righties. This isn’t a spot to stack the Astros, but each of the first five batters in their projected lineup has an xwOBA of at least .355 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.384	0.215	39.1%	9.7%	21.4%	48.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.388	0.266	37.2%	13.5%	9.9%	27.9%	3B	$4,400	3B/SS	$5,100	3B	$9,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.399	0.096	40.2%	8.6%	10.9%	37.6%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.359	0.141	32.7%	17.2%	23.0%	34.6%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,500
5	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.410	0.343	41.7%	14.6%	26.8%	37.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.337	0.145	34.8%	6.4%	11.4%	34.8%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.314	0.132	42.5%	6.2%	21.2%	39.6%	2B	$3,400	OF/SS	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
8	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.324	0.269	30.6%	6.3%	17.1%	38.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,500
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.296	0.118	39.1%	5.1%	24.5%	38.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.357	0.192	37.5%	9.7%	18.5%	37.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

The Mariners draw the worst matchup of the early slate, as they square off against Charlie Morton. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. The Mariners’ offense is talented, but there are better matchups to exploit in this early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.396	0.226	37.0%	10.9%	22.1%	39.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
2	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.399	0.129	42.9%	11.2%	15.5%	44.0%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
3	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.321	0.121	28.7%	3.9%	12.8%	54.5%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.410	0.247	39.1%	7.2%	19.6%	44.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,700
5	Denard Span	LEFT	0.360	0.178	31.7%	10.6%	13.2%	36.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.334	0.197	39.8%	6.2%	19.7%	34.4%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
7	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.334	0.104	24.6%	9.3%	18.1%	46.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,500
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.325	0.230	38.2%	4.9%	38.2%	40.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.272	0.073	20.6%	2.1%	14.5%	55.3%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.350	0.167	33.6%	7.4%	19.3%	44.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 22nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Houston at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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