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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-20 19:25:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Detroit Cincinnati
detroitmlb Michael Fulmer cincinnatimlb Tyler Mahle
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-128 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.354 36.6% 8.0% 19.7% 43.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.388 47.1% 13.9% 21.8% 32.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.332 41.8% 8.8% 19.7% 50.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.309 36.8% 3.3% 20.8% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 14 4.29 4.13 19.7% 8.4% 46.6% 38.8% 15.6%
L14 3 3.91 2.70 18.4% 5.3% 50.0% 41.4% 19.0%

There are seven early games on the schedule today. The first five are included in the early slate on FanDuel and all seven are included in the early slate on DraftKings. Fulmer isn’t having a great season, but he’s been serviceable for the Tigers. In his 14 starts, he has a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Reds in the hitter-friendly ballpark and comes into the game as a small underdog.

Quick Breakdown: We can find better options than Fulmer for both cash games and tournaments.

Tyler Mahle
tyler-mahle-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.53 2.70 15.2% 12.0% 52.5% 23.8% 22.2%
2018 14 4.28 3.96 21.3% 8.8% 38.2% 41.6% 14.0%
L14 2 5.05 1.59 15.6% 8.9% 37.5% 48.5% 9.1%

Mahle has similar numbers to Michael Fulmer this season. In 14 starts, he has a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently and he’s not a great fit for this home run-friendly ballpark. He has a high fly-ball rate and a 42% hard contact rate, which can quickly get him into trouble. The good news is that he’s facing a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense that strikes out at a higher rate than most.

Quick Breakdown: Mahle is the preferred pitching target in this game, but more of a tournament play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers might not be able to use the DH in this series, but they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They draw an exploitable matchup against Tyler Mahle, who has allowed a .388 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. He has been tough on righties though, holding them to a .309 xwOBA. Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum all bat from the left side and all boast a .200+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.431 0.408 0.201 41.9% 10.3% 20.0% 35.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,400
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.321 0.286 0.201 35.3% 11.1% 25.3% 37.9% 3B $3,200 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.371 0.343 0.187 48.8% 4.0% 23.9% 32.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,200
4 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.348 0.320 0.232 36.5% 10.2% 30.7% 41.9% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,700 1B $7,600
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.314 0.353 0.169 45.4% 3.9% 29.5% 38.1% C $2,500 1B/C $3,500 1B $6,700
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.287 0.228 0.069 35.3% 6.3% 19.6% 38.8% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,700
7 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.274 0.313 0.108 24.7% 4.3% 12.0% 44.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,600
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.298 0.140 0.174 31.3% 2.9% 27.9% 40.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
9 Michael Fulmer RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $7,400 P $7,400 P $14,500
Team Averages 0.294 0.299 0.149 33.2% 5.9% 32.1% 34.4%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

Michael Fulmer isn’t a pitcher that we should be scared to target hitters against. He has an average strikeout rate and he has allowed a .330+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I’m less inclined to fully stack an offense in these smaller slates, but the Reds are one of the top offenses to target. Each of the first six batters in their projected lineup have good numbers against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.346 0.370 0.199 39.4% 7.2% 21.6% 53.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.326 0.318 0.113 35.6% 10.5% 18.8% 42.0% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.459 0.419 0.158 37.8% 16.8% 11.4% 32.9% 1B $4,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.356 0.303 0.189 40.3% 6.4% 17.2% 40.1% 2B $3,900 2B $4,500 2B $9,100
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.398 0.386 0.250 44.7% 8.3% 17.2% 35.8% 3B $4,000 3B $4,900 3B $9,400
6 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.367 0.342 0.095 41.9% 12.1% 12.6% 41.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.289 0.318 0.085 30.4% 4.9% 12.1% 37.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 Tyler Mahle RIGHT 0.230 0.227 0.071 25.0% 5.9% 23.5% 80.0% P $6,600 P $6,300 P $12,800
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.238 0.242 0.060 16.7% 11.8% 27.8% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.334 0.325 0.136 34.6% 9.3% 18.0% 45.5%

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart (DK), Jesse Winker

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

Atlanta Toronto
atlantamlb Anibal Sanchez torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.340 33.3% 11.1% 30.2% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.189 0.248 20.9% 3.1% 30.8% 59.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.260 16.7% 4.8% 15.5% 43.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.311 32.0% 8.5% 27.4% 43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.16 6.41 21.6% 6.0% 35.6% 37.4% 16.8%
2018 6 3.98 1.93 21.8% 7.5% 46.0% 22.6% 29.4%
L14 3 3.60 0.93 22.9% 4.3% 44.9% 21.6% 25.5%

Sanchez has surpassed all expectations this season, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a soft contact rate that is higher than his hard contact rate. While those numbers are encouraging, he draws a difficult matchup on the road against the Blue Jays. Toronto’s projected lineup has a .344 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. It seems like a good time to hop off the Sanchez bandwagon.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an easy fade in all formats.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 14 3.33 3.48 28.1% 7.5% 46.4% 29.7% 21.7%
L14 2 5.32 0.00 15.6% 11.1% 43.8% 24.2% 18.2%

Happ has struggled in his last two starts, but has had a solid season as a whole. In 14 starts, he has a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. I ultimately expect those numbers to regress a bit in the second half of the season. While he’s favored in this game, he feels overpriced for a matchup against the Braves, whose projected lineup has a .354 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is the clear SP1 in this slate and it’s hard to pair him with Happ. He’s the odd man out.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense has been firing on all cylinders this season. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they get to use the DH in this series. While a matchup against J.A. Happ is far from ideal, there are a few intriguing one-off targets in tournaments. Happ has allowed a .311 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, which brings Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers, and Kurt Suzuki into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.367 0.303 0.267 43.0% 4.2% 12.6% 37.2% 2B $4,200 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
2 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.306 0.345 0.239 45.2% 8.0% 30.0% 36.7% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.439 0.444 0.319 40.0% 9.4% 18.9% 38.7% 1B $4,700 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.348 0.382 0.176 38.4% 8.1% 14.4% 45.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.466 0.369 0.233 56.5% 20.0% 17.5% 43.5% C $3,300 C $3,500 C $6,400
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.395 0.312 0.238 41.7% 8.7% 13.0% 41.7% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
7 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.263 0.242 0.100 26.8% 5.7% 17.0% 62.5% SS $2,200 3B/OF $2,900 SS $5,900
8 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.255 0.184 0.026 26.6% 7.1% 16.5% 53.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
9 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.343 0.291 0.189 37.2% 5.4% 17.9% 37.2% 3B $2,700 3B/SS $3,100 3B $6,000
Team Averages 0.354 0.319 0.199 39.5% 8.5% 17.5% 44.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a better matchup than the splits indicate. I don’t expect Anibal Sanchez to sustain this level of success the rest of the season and throughout his career, he has been a reverse-splits pitcher. Both of these bode well for the Blue Jays, who are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Justin Smoak has been ice-cold over the last few weeks, but Curtis Granderson and Teoscar Hernandez have both hit right-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.365 0.353 0.199 39.0% 14.5% 29.5% 31.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.378 0.291 0.217 34.7% 18.4% 26.3% 35.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
3 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.388 0.333 0.241 38.3% 5.3% 23.0% 37.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,100
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.343 0.333 0.176 29.6% 7.0% 15.7% 43.0% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.348 0.242 0.170 35.2% 5.1% 20.0% 40.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,900
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.311 0.311 0.179 32.9% 14.3% 25.0% 47.6% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.327 0.309 0.261 39.6% 7.7% 28.2% 45.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.361 0.328 0.217 38.1% 4.1% 14.9% 41.2% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.271 0.411 0.095 20.0% 5.4% 26.1% 63.3% 2B $2,400 2B $3,200 2B $6,700
Team Averages 0.344 0.323 0.195 34.2% 9.1% 23.2% 42.9%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson (GPP), Teoscar Hernandez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson (Cash), Teoscar Hernandez (Cash), Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

St. Louis Philadelphia
stlouismlb Michael Wacha philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.342 42.2% 7.2% 22.3% 44.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.322 26.9% 10.1% 17.1% 55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.379 43.9% 13.0% 18.9% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.290 26.0% 6.4% 15.6% 56.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.14 4.13 22.5% 7.9% 48.0% 28.0% 20.2%
2018 14 4.41 3.24 20.6% 10.2% 43.1% 43.0% 15.7%
L14 3 4.51 5.09 21.3% 12.0% 50.0% 51.0% 10.2%

Wacha is a pitcher that I rarely have exposure to in DFS. It’s strange, it feels like every few weeks we get a chalky Wacha out of nowhere. HIs numbers as a whole are mediocre at best this season — 4.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 43%. While there is some strikeout upside against the Phillies, there is also risk, especially in this home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is an easy fade in cash games, but viable in tournaments given the upside in this matchup.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 13 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0%
2018 13 4.34 3.33 16.2% 8.0% 56.3% 26.3% 19.6%
L14 3 4.59 7.98 13.0% 7.3% 54.9% 29.4% 21.6%

Arrieta has a low ERA this season, but as I mentioned before his last start, he was due for regression. In 13 starts, he has a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16%. He still has an above-average ground ball rate, but doesn’t carry as much fantasy appeal as his low ERA would suggest. While I rarely play Arrieta in DFS, he’s viable as an SP2 thanks to a matchup against the right-handed heavy Cardinals. Arrieta has held righties to a .290 xwOBA on a 57% ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta is viable as an SP2 to pair with Kluber.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals hit right-handed pitching well as a whole, but it seems like the entire Phillies’ rotation is tough on right-handed hitters. This includes Jake Arrieta, who has held righties a .290 xwOBA and a 26% hard contact rate this season. Once again, Matt Carpenter is the one hitter on my radar in this lineup. He has hit home runs in back-to-back games in this series and owns a .405 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.405 0.381 0.197 48.5% 12.4% 24.8% 22.4% 3B $3,900 2B/3B $4,200 3B $8,000
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.367 0.359 0.167 46.6% 11.0% 25.7% 50.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,100
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.430 0.474 0.212 42.2% 8.3% 13.9% 49.4% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 IF/OF $9,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.372 0.537 0.141 46.5% 5.7% 18.9% 47.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,200
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.353 0.330 0.148 48.0% 5.6% 14.4% 47.0% C $3,200 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.263 0.234 0.084 36.4% 6.1% 26.1% 39.0% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,200 3B $6,800
7 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.295 0.223 0.135 36.3% 11.2% 18.4% 36.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
8 Yairo Munoz RIGHT 0.254 0.266 0.054 38.6% 3.9% 22.1% 59.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.071 0.168 0.000 7.1% 4.5% 31.8% 54.5% P $8,800 P $7,800 P $14,900
Team Averages 0.312 0.330 0.126 38.9% 7.6% 21.8% 45.0%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Yadier Molina (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Michael Wacha carries more name value than anything at this point. If we look at his splits, he has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. He has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 42%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams all boast a .385+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season and are obviously playing at home in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.324 0.302 0.151 24.8% 13.5% 24.7% 42.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.397 0.457 0.235 35.4% 13.6% 29.4% 30.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.307 0.234 0.137 25.2% 8.3% 21.2% 42.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.295 0.228 35.3% 19.0% 14.5% 37.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.304 0.301 0.150 23.9% 4.3% 17.9% 53.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,500
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.393 0.365 0.258 32.2% 9.0% 24.6% 46.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,300
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.272 0.273 0.138 30.3% 3.3% 40.7% 53.0% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,700
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.311 0.334 0.120 27.4% 6.7% 21.2% 40.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.196 0.415 0.176 40.0% 5.6% 66.7% 40.0% P $7,900 P $6,800 P $13,500
Team Averages 0.321 0.331 0.177 30.5% 9.3% 29.0% 42.7%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP), Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-300 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.344 31.6% 9.3% 13.7% 32.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.243 0.283 36.8% 3.8% 28.3% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.359 30.8% 10.1% 19.1% 38.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.246 0.290 39.1% 1.9% 25.7% 51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9%
2018 14 5.16 3.35 16.3% 9.7% 35.3% 31.2% 24.1%
L14 3 5.13 1.86 16.3% 8.8% 34.5% 34.5% 22.4%

Lopez continues to defy all odds with his 3.35 ERA, but I will continue to beat my drum that he can’t sustain this success with the way that he is pitching. He has a 5.16 SIERA, a 16% strikeout rate, and a 10% walk rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that should have some serious regression coming his way. I’m always willing to stack the Indians, especially in matchups like this one. Their projected lineup has a .375 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in both cash games and tournaments.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,100 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,700
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4%
2018 15 2.85 2.24 26.9% 2.8% 48.4% 38.0% 15.2%
L14 3 2.96 3.15 24.0% 1.3% 50.0% 44.6% 8.9%

Lock and load Kluber into your early slate lineups (and all-day lineups). He is clearly the top pitcher on the board. In 15 starts, he has a 2.85 SIERA, a 27% strikeout rate, and a 3% walk rate. He draws an exploitable matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. In 141 plate appearances, the current roster for the White Sox has a .295 wOBA with 54 strikeouts against Kluber.

Quick Breakdown: Eat the Kluber chalk in both cash games and tournaments and move on.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have the worst matchup of the slate. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season. I typically don’t mind Yoan Moncada as a one-off when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher, but I will be fading the White Sox as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.377 0.314 0.210 42.0% 9.9% 34.7% 30.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.349 0.358 0.185 29.3% 4.7% 15.6% 45.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 2B $6,800
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.393 0.314 0.209 35.4% 6.0% 16.8% 40.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.333 0.254 0.220 38.8% 3.3% 31.1% 43.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,400
5 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.397 0.357 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 8.3% 50.0% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,600
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.387 0.261 0.210 42.0% 13.4% 36.0% 37.0% 3B $3,200 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.289 0.246 0.178 26.2% 8.8% 27.3% 43.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Charlie Tilson LEFT 0.213 0.223 0.056 9.8% 1.7% 8.6% 64.6% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 LF $5,900
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.249 0.302 0.085 24.4% 6.9% 29.2% 41.9% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 CF $4,700
Team Averages 0.332 0.292 0.150 29.6% 6.1% 23.1% 44.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The White Sox will be the team to finally break the camel’s back. The camel that I’m talking about is the low ERA for Reynaldo Lopez. All of his advanced and expected statistics suggest some serious regression moving forward. On the season, he has allowed a .344 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties. Meanwhile, each of the first six batters in the Indians’ projected lineup has a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitchng — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, and Jason Kipnis.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.400 0.337 0.260 41.5% 7.9% 20.7% 33.8% SS $5,000 SS $5,200 SS $9,900
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.420 0.366 0.219 43.2% 7.0% 9.1% 43.9% OF $4,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.424 0.453 0.362 35.9% 15.0% 12.3% 34.0% 3B $5,200 3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.380 0.398 0.267 37.9% 6.9% 25.4% 36.3% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $8,900
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.379 0.344 0.190 36.7% 10.1% 21.7% 37.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.352 0.296 0.091 36.9% 9.1% 18.7% 38.1% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 2B $7,400
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.300 0.413 0.190 40.0% 5.3% 32.1% 36.3% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.356 0.345 0.067 42.1% 9.6% 13.5% 32.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 RF $6,700
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.366 0.220 0.137 47.3% 3.8% 24.4% 54.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.375 0.352 0.198 40.2% 8.3% 19.8% 38.6%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

LA Dodgers Chicago Cubs
ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-111
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.230 18.0% 3.6% 31.9% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.328 32.1% 6.6% 22.4% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.228 29.8% 4.8% 27.4% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.347 36.7% 8.9% 20.1% 39.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,500
Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 3.37 3.75 24.3% 6.3% 49.3% 27.0% 20.4%
2018 9 2.68 1.76 29.8% 4.2% 48.2% 23.7% 22.5%
L14 3 2.51 2.00 28.8% 0.0% 50.0% 23.4% 21.3%

Stripling has come out of nowhere this season. I mentioned this before his last start, but if you only saw the statistics and the fact that he pitched for the Dodgers, you would honestly think I was talking about Clayton Kershaw. In nine starts, Stripling has a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 4%. One of this toughest tasks to date will come today against the Cubs, but at least the wind is blowing in from left-center field.

Quick Breakdown: I plan to have 100% exposure to Kluber, which makes it tough to roster Stripling.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.07 4.33 23.6% 7.9% 46.2% 28.1% 21.4%
2018 14 4.32 2.28 20.6% 8.4% 39.6% 35.6% 14.6%
L14 3 4.18 0.90 20.3% 8.1% 50.0% 40.4% 13.5%

Lester has a low ERA this season, but should have some regression in the second half of the season. Something tells me that a .233 BABIP isn’t going to last forever (major league average is close to .300). Lester’s strikeouts are down this season and he is giving up a lot more hard contact. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Dodgers, who hit left-handed pitching well and strikeout at a low rate.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Stripling over Lester, but will likely be avoiding both.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a mediocre matchup against Jon Lester. While he has been better at holding runners this season, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. With the wind blowing in from left-center, a full Dodgers’ stack is out of the question. However, Justin Turner and Matt Kemp both bat from the right side and both own xwOBAs of at least .455 against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.347 0.317 0.211 36.1% 15.2% 17.4% 37.7% SS $3,500 OF/SS $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
2 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.341 0.391 0.238 31.3% 12.4% 21.6% 35.9% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,800
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.458 0.361 0.208 47.6% 21.9% 12.5% 23.8% 3B $3,600 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.478 0.424 0.352 56.9% 10.0% 26.3% 25.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
5 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.263 0.418 0.127 27.5% 11.1% 18.1% 52.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,400
6 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.309 0.413 0.244 41.2% 14.0% 30.1% 29.4% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,500 1B $9,000
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.303 0.341 0.114 29.7% 8.3% 14.6% 40.5% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,900
8 Austin Barnes RIGHT 0.312 0.283 0.098 35.0% 11.7% 18.3% 60.0% C $2,000 2B/C $2,800 C $5,500
9 Ross Stripling RIGHT 0.062 0.111 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 100.0% P $9,400 P $9,700 P $18,500
Team Averages 0.319 0.340 0.177 35.8% 11.6% 20.4% 45.0%

Elite Plays – Justin Turner (GPP), Matt Kemp (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner (GPP), Matt Kemp (GPP), Chris Taylor

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a talented offense, but I’m not excited about the idea of targeting hitters against Ross Stripling. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley, I will be avoiding the Cubs in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.364 0.257 0.142 31.5% 12.2% 19.7% 36.3% 3B $4,100 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,100
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.371 0.356 0.163 32.8% 8.8% 9.4% 37.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
3 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.356 0.325 0.146 31.5% 15.0% 12.4% 45.0% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.399 0.399 0.211 34.8% 10.7% 10.2% 34.8% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.319 0.224 0.164 29.3% 8.1% 17.3% 49.6% C $3,100 C $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
6 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.334 0.362 0.246 40.0% 16.4% 39.0% 32.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.380 0.381 0.277 41.2% 16.6% 24.4% 46.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.281 0.293 0.084 34.2% 9.2% 24.1% 38.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.284 0.087 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0% P $9,000 P $8,600 P $16,800
Team Averages 0.343 0.298 0.159 33.4% 10.8% 19.6% 43.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious