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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-11 12:29:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Seattle at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Seattle Philadelphia
seattlemlb Yovani Gallardo philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-103 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.330 28.7% 13.4% 19.5% 37.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.346 35.9% 5.8% 10.0% 40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.337 26.8% 8.6% 13.8% 48.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.323 31.1% 4.9% 13.0% 38.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 5.34 5.42 16.2% 11.6% 43.2% 27.5% 18.5%
2017 6 4.38 4.46 17.5% 8.1% 46.8% 27.9% 16.2%

If you are playing in the early-only slate today, buckle up because it is going to be a bumpy ride. There isn’t a single pitcher in the slate that I feel good about and that certainly includes the likes of Yovani Gallardo and Zach Eflin. Gallardo has a below-average strikeout rate, he walks too many batters, and he is pitching in a home-run friendly ballpark. Last night was a great example of what can happen in Citizens Bank Park, as these two teams combined for five home runs and 19 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Even though the Phillies don’t hit right-handed pitching well, I have no interest in Gallardo.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 5.41 5.54 11.4% 6.3% 36.2% 33.2% 17.5%
2017 4 4.65 2.42 11.8% 2.9% 48.2% 34.5% 14.3%

Eflin doesn’t have a huge sample size at the major league level, but in 15 starts, he has a strikeout rate of 11%. In DFS, that is really all we need to worry about. If a pitcher can’t strike anyone out, it really doesn’t matter who he is facing. Robinson Cano left last night’s game early and we saw Nelson Cruz get the night off because the Mariners can’t use the DH in this series, but even if they are both out, I will be avoiding Eflin.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with Eflin.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

If Nelson Cruz can catch a fly ball, the Mariners should do what they can to get him in the lineup today. We’ll have to wait and see if he and Robinson Cano end up playing. Even if they are out, this is still an exploitable matchup for the Mariners. Zach Eflin has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball and has allowed a .323+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.389 0.345 0.186 29.6% 5.1% 13.0% 52.2% SS $4,100 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.303 0.297 0.111 32.1% 11.6% 26.7% 34.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.394 0.397 0.267 38.1% 8.4% 12.6% 43.5% 2B $4,000 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.380 0.407 0.219 39.7% 12.2% 14.3% 34.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.311 0.316 0.147 30.0% 6.8% 24.3% 42.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.316 0.295 0.078 14.8% 11.0% 17.6% 49.2% OF $2,900 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
7 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.293 0.330 0.066 27.2% 10.4% 15.6% 46.8% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.294 0.271 0.090 16.2% 8.0% 12.2% 52.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Yovani Gallardo RIGHT P $6,700 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Nelson Cruz (if he’s in the lineup), Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Yovani Gallardo is a below-average pitcher at this stage in his career, but he is very good at limiting hard contact. In each of the last two seasons, he has held hitters under 28% hard contact rate. That may take some of the upside away from the Phillies, but Gallardo has still allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Michael Saunders leads the Phillies with a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.341 0.309 0.116 26.1% 10.7% 19.2% 52.2% 2B $3,500 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.290 0.292 0.113 32.0% 9.9% 32.3% 50.8% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.346 0.309 0.157 28.7% 9.1% 20.5% 43.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.295 0.322 0.154 29.6% 6.8% 16.2% 44.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.329 0.330 0.194 38.3% 10.5% 26.7% 39.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.318 0.319 0.207 37.1% 5.1% 23.4% 41.2% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.307 0.273 0.180 27.8% 5.0% 21.7% 39.8% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.403 0.329 0.231 26.3% 13.3% 23.3% 42.1% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.130 0.131 0.043 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 72.7% P $7,200 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

San Francisco NY Mets
sanfranciscomlb Matt Cain nymetsmlb Tommy Milone
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-125 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.350 26.7% 10.4% 16.5% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.325 38.8% 4.5% 19.1% 31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.324 33.2% 7.6% 19.1% 37.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.359 32.0% 6.4% 15.2% 46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Cain
matt-cain-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.67 5.64 18.1% 8.1% 37.3% 31.4% 21.6%
2017 6 4.94 4.70 17.5% 11.0% 42.3% 27.6% 17.4%

Cain is not a great pitcher at this stage in his career. In six starts this season, he has a 4.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He hasn’t shown great command and the Mets have really fared well against right-handed pitching this season. Cain’s biggest issue is against left-handed hitters and it looks like the Mets will have at least five lefties in their lineup today.

Quick Breakdown: There isn’t enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that Cain is going to allow.

Tommy Milone
tommy-milone-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.61 5.71 15.8% 7.1% 45.7% 35.6% 18.8%
2017 3 3.95 6.43 17.2% 2.2% 36.5% 26.7% 30.7%

Milone is making his first start with the Mets, after making three with the Brewers earlier in the season. He is always an easy fade in DFS thanks to a low strikeout rate and a historically high hard contact rate. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and the Giants are a team that draws a lot of walks and strikes out at a low rate.

Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Tommy Milone is a pitcher that we don’t mind picking on. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .325 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .359 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, and Christian Arroyo make for a nice three-man stack batting third, fourth, and fifth. You can also look at Brandon Belt as a low-owned tournament play, as he actually fares very well against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Panik LEFT 0.277 0.296 0.069 24.3% 7.7% 14.9% 50.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.363 0.366 0.184 30.5% 14.1% 24.3% 32.5% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.334 0.325 0.206 36.8% 9.0% 20.2% 48.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.388 0.402 0.178 36.8% 14.6% 10.7% 43.1% C $3,700 1B/C $4,200 C $8,000
5 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.349 0.355 0.111 19.1% 3.6% 21.4% 61.9% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.299 0.284 0.158 28.3% 5.1% 11.1% 48.2% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.282 0.299 0.120 35.5% 8.5% 15.9% 35.6% OF $2,700 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
8 Justin Ruggiano RIGHT 0.434 0.354 0.350 46.2% 13.0% 30.4% 30.8% OF $2,400 OF $2,400 RF $4,800
9 Matt Cain RIGHT 0.204 0.151 0.250 33.3% 0.0% 64.7% 25.0% P $7,800 P $6,300 P $12,600

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Christian Arroyo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

There isn’t a single pitcher on the slate that we need to shy away from when selecting hitters. As mentioned above, Matt Cain has struggled with left-handed hitters, allowing a .350 xwOBA with a 10% walk rate in the last two seasons. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce absolutely mash right-handed pitching and are elite plays in all formats. You can round out your Mets’ stack with T.J. Rivera, Neil Walker, and Curtis Granderson.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.363 0.363 0.242 41.5% 11.8% 23.6% 37.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.409 0.322 0.209 29.8% 4.8% 8.8% 41.7% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,400
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.380 0.374 0.300 41.9% 9.1% 19.8% 35.4% OF $3,900 1B/OF $4,700 RF $9,200
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.316 0.346 0.155 34.4% 9.5% 19.0% 37.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
5 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.331 0.332 0.225 36.0% 12.7% 19.4% 34.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
6 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.282 0.260 0.132 25.3% 7.5% 17.7% 36.4% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,600
7 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.260 0.267 0.104 26.0% 6.5% 16.4% 37.0% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.257 0.300 0.095 29.4% 4.8% 24.6% 47.9% C $2,500 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Tommy Milone LEFT 0.350 0.365 0.000 40.0% 14.3% 14.3% 80.0% P $5,500 P $5,800 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – T.J. Rivera, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Atlanta Houston
atlantamlb Jaime Garcia houstonmlb Joe Musgrove
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.293 25.0% 5.2% 21.3% 46.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.313 31.4% 7.7% 19.5% 44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.317 33.1% 8.8% 18.8% 56.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.317 32.3% 5.8% 20.4% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 5 5.31 3.99 13.5% 10.3% 43.6% 33.7% 28.4%

Garcia is trending in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate was down last season and it has dipped all the way to 13.5% this season. He has struggled with his command and he hasn’t been able to induce nearly as many ground balls as he usually does. He could run into some trouble against a right-handed heavy Astros’ lineup that hits lefties well and strikes out at a very low rate.

Quick Breakdown: We will get to a viable pitching option eventually, I promise.

Joe Musgrove
joseph-musgrove-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 3.98 4.06 21.5% 6.3% 43.4% 34.6% 18.1%
2017 6 4.52 5.40 17.3% 7.2% 40.6% 27.2% 18.5%

Musgrove is one of three pitching options on my radar in the early-only slate. It’s funny how DFS works because he wouldn’t have been in consideration at all in last night’s slate. Musgrove hasn’t been in great form this season, but he has close to a league-average strikeout rate and he is listed as a sizable favorite at home. His matchup against the Braves isn’t ideal, but we have to make some sacrifices given the lack of options at pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove doesn’t have great strikeout upside against the Braves, but hopefully he can do enough to be in line for the win.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves would typically be an offense on my radar, but there are so many bad pitchers in this slate, that I will likely have very little exposure to Atlanta. Their matchup against Joe Musgrove is mediocre at best, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Freddie Freeman is always a viable one-off target. He has a massive .313 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.320 0.296 0.120 27.0% 8.1% 13.6% 44.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.332 0.305 0.124 28.8% 3.0% 11.3% 47.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.427 0.431 0.313 42.7% 15.5% 21.1% 28.9% 1B $4,500 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.331 0.352 0.223 37.2% 5.3% 24.0% 39.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.339 0.362 0.149 33.7% 11.7% 16.6% 39.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.289 0.313 0.133 29.9% 3.3% 16.7% 52.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.355 0.339 0.128 42.6% 8.9% 27.1% 45.6% C $2,800 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.260 0.281 0.079 30.2% 9.3% 25.1% 46.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.293 0.282 0.104 32.5% 4.7% 22.6% 53.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros draw one of the best matchups in the early slate. If you look at Jaime Garcia splits from this season only, he has allowed a .343 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I love the top five batters in this Astros’ lineup. George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, and Evan Gattis all have great power numbers against southpaws. Carlos Correa .303 wOBA doesn’t look great, but he has had some bad luck with batted balls. The new xwOBA stat shows that he should have a .373 wOBA, so expect some positive regression to come his way.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.394 0.406 0.289 39.7% 12.4% 22.2% 45.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
2 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.384 0.345 0.221 40.0% 5.1% 19.5% 31.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.381 0.372 0.212 36.8% 11.2% 14.9% 42.4% 2B $3,900 2B $5,300 2B $10,400
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.303 0.373 0.126 39.7% 13.8% 19.2% 49.3% SS $3,700 SS $5,000 SS $9,600
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.375 0.367 0.266 33.1% 8.1% 18.3% 38.2% C $3,500 C $4,000 C $7,600
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.199 0.249 0.075 32.8% 0.0% 9.0% 42.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.328 0.280 0.206 28.8% 5.4% 25.4% 49.3% 1B $3,300 3B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.325 0.300 0.145 32.2% 9.2% 21.8% 31.6% 3B $2,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.307 0.298 0.164 30.7% 8.1% 26.5% 42.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Colorado
cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks coloradomlb German Marquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-120 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.289 25.8% 6.3% 21.9% 47.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.276 22.2% 7.3% 15.9% 58.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.253 0.268 28.6% 6.8% 22.7% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.400 0.351 39.4% 7.7% 16.5% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 48.4% 25.8% 25.1%
2017 6 4.41 3.51 19.7% 10.2% 49.5% 35.8% 21.1%

Hendricks throws a lot of sinkers. As we found out with Jake Arrieta yesterday, sinkers don’t sink nearly as much in the altitude in Colorado. He is the most talented pitcher in this slate, but that means next to nothing in a matchup against the Rockies in the hitter’s paradise.

Quick Breakdown: Even though pitching options are scarce, we don’t need to give Hendricks a look in this slate.

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28 Salary Rank: 28 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 3 4.70 7.31 17.3% 9.3% 45.5% 32.7% 14.6%

Marquez has only made six career major league starts, but it’s a big enough sample to know that we don’t want to target him in DFS. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he is pitching in Coors Field against one of the best offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Fade in the shade. Or in the sun. Or in the rain.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest implied run total in the slate. Their offense is loaded with talent and they are facing a subpar pitcher in Coors Field. I shouldn’t have to pull your leg to get you to play the Cubs in the early slate. Load up on hitters here in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.305 0.340 0.187 33.3% 12.3% 29.2% 44.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.350 0.226 37.7% 10.0% 23.2% 31.0% 3B $5,000 3B $5,700 IF/OF $11,200
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.376 0.256 37.2% 11.5% 17.2% 36.1% 1B $4,700 1B $5,800 1B $11,400
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.352 0.363 0.173 32.8% 15.5% 11.9% 46.6% OF $4,000 2B/OF $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.299 0.300 0.147 27.5% 7.6% 21.7% 42.0% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.328 0.316 0.181 31.5% 10.4% 28.1% 53.5% C $3,500 C $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.313 0.268 0.173 28.8% 1.6% 26.1% 44.4% OF $3,800 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
8 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.152 0.158 0.000 6.7% 0.0% 45.6% 60.9% P $7,300 P $7,800 P $15,200
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.319 0.304 0.109 30.9% 5.8% 20.5% 50.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 CF $8,400

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies’ offense got all of their hits out of the way in the first game of yesterday’s double-header. Hopefully they got all of their bad at-bats out of the way in their second game. They draw an exploitable matchup against Kyle Hendricks, whose strikeout rate is down this season. He also throws a lot of sinkers, which typically don’t sink in this altitude. The top seven hitters are all in play today and we can stack the Rockies in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.410 0.376 0.283 39.3% 7.1% 17.2% 31.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,700 CF $11,200
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.375 0.381 0.122 32.5% 10.1% 11.9% 54.5% 2B $3,600 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.379 0.345 0.272 37.4% 8.0% 14.0% 36.6% 3B $4,800 3B $5,600 3B $10,800
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.356 0.346 0.190 35.5% 9.8% 17.8% 44.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.392 0.325 0.240 31.1% 8.5% 24.2% 40.5% 1B $4,300 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.297 0.296 0.156 35.1% 2.6% 18.7% 52.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.338 0.322 0.253 37.2% 7.9% 32.5% 30.3% SS $3,700 SS $4,800 SS $9,200
8 Dustin Garneau RIGHT 0.285 0.244 0.141 30.4% 7.8% 32.5% 28.9% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,200
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.000 0.088 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 66.7% P $5,500 P $4,500 P $9,000

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra or Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

LA Angels Oakland
laangelsmlb Jesse Chavez oaklandmlb Andrew Triggs
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-120 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.302 25.4% 8.8% 21.4% 45.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.308 25.6% 7.5% 19.5% 52.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.340 37.0% 6.0% 21.5% 40.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.278 26.4% 3.4% 23.2% 52.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez
jesse-chavez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.59 4.43 22.3% 6.4% 42.9% 31.2% 16.1%
2017 6 4.33 4.46 19.9% 8.6% 42.6% 34.3% 13.9%

We finally get to a game where we can target the pitchers. Chavez has been a serviceable starter for the Angels this season, posting a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. His biggest problem is right-handed power bats, but outside of Khris Davis, the A’s don’t have a ton of pop from the right side of the plate. Chavez is fairly cheap, he’s reliable, and he has a revenge narrative brewing against his former team.

Quick Breakdown: Chavez is viable in all formats, even though he is an underdog against the A’s.

Andrew Triggs
andrew-triggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.29 4.31 23.1% 5.5% 50.9% 27.0% 19.2%
2017 6 3.65 2.34 18.9% 4.9% 55.2% 24.5% 12.3%

Triggs is my favorite pitching option in the early slate and I expect many to agree with me, which should lead to high ownership. Triggs has pitched well in his 12 major league starts, posting a SIERA close to 3.50 with a strikeout rate over 20%. He limits hard contact against him and he may get a big boost if Mike Trout is out of the Angels’ lineup again today.

Quick Breakdown: Triggs is the top pitching option in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels lack power against right-handed pitching and that is magnified when Mike Trout is out of the lineup. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, so keep an eye out for the Angels’ lineup. Trout is really the only hitter on my radar here. Luis Valbuena offers decent value, but I’m not sure we need a lot of value plays in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.306 0.322 0.086 26.9% 6.3% 11.9% 59.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.334 0.341 0.158 34.7% 9.7% 18.1% 38.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.360 0.161 34.8% 7.5% 13.4% 44.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
4 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.359 0.345 0.216 39.0% 13.5% 23.7% 35.7% 1B $2,600 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.301 0.305 0.083 26.3% 6.2% 9.4% 54.5% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.326 0.291 0.090 22.8% 8.9% 17.9% 63.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
7 Ben Revere LEFT 0.248 0.253 0.087 21.8% 4.4% 9.0% 57.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
8 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.269 0.273 0.096 26.4% 9.1% 27.8% 38.5% SS $2,200 2B/SS $2,100 2B $4,200
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.271 0.293 0.127 27.9% 12.0% 23.1% 48.3% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (if he’s in the lineup), Luis Valbuena

Stackability – RED

Oakland

As mentioned above, Jesse Chavez struggles against right-handed power bats. Khris Davis is firmly in play in all formats, as he owns a .369 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Outside of Davis, I don’t have a ton of interest in the A’s offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.306 0.271 0.141 26.9% 5.9% 19.7% 47.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.343 0.372 0.206 37.9% 17.8% 22.5% 40.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.308 0.302 0.106 32.3% 8.0% 16.8% 38.4% 2B $2,300 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.350 0.369 0.286 41.6% 7.1% 28.6% 43.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.321 0.360 0.143 34.2% 9.0% 15.3% 40.5% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.329 0.330 0.193 31.3% 5.0% 23.8% 39.6% 1B $3,200 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.312 0.321 0.162 26.5% 6.7% 15.4% 30.4% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.301 0.319 0.160 32.4% 5.4% 18.8% 43.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.300 0.265 0.215 33.0% 6.8% 32.3% 35.4% 2B $2,700 SS $2,500 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious