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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-04 03:07:54

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb Marcus Stroman nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-105 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 34.1% 7.1% 19.0% 60.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 19.8% 9.2% 23.6% 49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 29.1% 5.1% 19.8% 59.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 27.3% 8.3% 18.2% 49.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $10,000 Salary: $19,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 5 3.26 2.97 19.4% 4.9% 59.8% 30.6% 23.2%

Stroman is a pitcher that can succeed in any ballpark against any lineup thanks to a league average strikeout rate and one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball. He may not have the same upside as the aces across baseball, but he is still a very good pitcher. Unfortunately, he runs into the buzz saw that is the Yankees’ offense. In a full 15 game slate, I don’t want to risk taking a pitcher on the road against a potent offense.

Quick Breakdown: I’m higher on Stroman than most, but he’s not in play tonight in this matchup.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 5 4.79 4.34 15.9% 8.7% 43.8% 33.3% 21.5%

Sabathia was shelled in his last outing and now owns a 4.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16% on the season. He has done a marvelous job of inducing soft and mid contact over the last two seasons, but he doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for in DFS. Tonight he faces a Blue Jays’ offense that is finally starting to show some signs of life. I have no interest in Sabathia in this spot, but I’m expecting a decent bounce-back start from him.

Quick Breakdown: It’s hard watching pitchers age, but there is little value in rostering Sabathia at this stage in his career.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

In DFS, we can often get caught up in recency bias. Despite limiting right-handed hitters to a .320 wOBA and a 27% hard contact rate over the last two seasons, my immediate reaction was to want to play the Blue Jays’ righties against CC Sabathia. After seeing the Orioles tee off on him, my thoughts on Sabathia changed drastically. However, we need to trust the larger sample size here. Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Steve Pearce are all viable secondary options, but I’m not nearly as high on the Blue Jays as the masses.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.330 0.148 32.9% 2.8% 14.8% 35.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
2 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.340 0.094 27.8% 7.8% 16.3% 41.7% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,500 2B $4,800
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.299 0.167 38.2% 12.9% 18.9% 38.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.384 0.218 38.4% 5.0% 19.5% 36.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 0.157 46.2% 16.4% 30.1% 43.6% C $3,100 C $3,500 C $6,900
6 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.303 0.168 37.5% 8.5% 16.9% 40.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.366 0.236 44.7% 11.7% 25.0% 35.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 1B $6,300
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.275 0.088 24.2% 2.6% 19.7% 45.1% 2B $2,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.195 0.043 22.2% 0.0% 22.9% 63.9% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $2,300 2B $4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Marcus Stroman is a better pitcher than CC Sabathia at this point in their careers, but I have more interest in the Yankees’ offense than I do the Blue Jays’ offense. They have been red-hot at the plate, they are playing at home, and their salaries on DraftKings are incredibly cheap. Every single batter in their lineup is under $4,000 tonight. The only two hitters that I am bearish on here are Matt Holliday and Starlin Castro, who both have 50%+ ground ball rates against righties. They will likely be popular too, which makes them interesting fades against an elite ground ball pitcher. Aaron Judge is not only a massive human being, but he also crushes the baseball. Do yourself a favor and pull up his game log. He has eight home runs in his last ten games and a bunch of hits to go with it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.333 0.115 27.2% 13.2% 16.8% 49.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.333 0.168 31.4% 11.5% 25.9% 42.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.331 0.180 35.5% 9.8% 19.3% 52.4% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.171 30.8% 3.9% 19.1% 50.5% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.355 0.298 48.8% 9.5% 35.4% 41.3% OF $4,100 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.304 0.177 25.1% 3.4% 15.7% 40.8% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
7 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.336 0.256 40.4% 11.0% 33.7% 29.5% 1B $2,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.313 0.148 22.7% 2.3% 9.7% 49.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.290 0.119 21.7% 5.0% 17.6% 42.9% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $5,100

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner (DK), Chase Headley (DK), Aaron Judge (DK), Didi Gregorius (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (FD), Chase Headley (FD), Aaron Judge (FD), Didi Gregorius (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW (FD) / GREEN (DK)

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Robbie Ray washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-133 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 37.2% 6.1% 33.0% 55.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 26.8% 7.3% 18.9% 56.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 38.4% 10.9% 27.0% 43.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 33.3% 7.9% 22.7% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray
robbie-ray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 4.90 28.1% 9.2% 45.7% 36.6% 16.0%
2017 5 3.76 3.56 30.2% 13.2% 47.1% 48.0% 11.0%

Since the start of last season, Ray has one of the highest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. To get that high strikeout rate, he needs to throw a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone, which leads to a high walk rate. We are more than fine with a high walk rate when it is accompanied by an elite strikeout rate, but it does hurt his ability to pitch deep into games. I will never rule Ray out completely, but he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the red-hot Nationals’ offense. If you scroll down to their projected lineup, you will see that they have five batters with at least a 9.5% walk rate against southpaws. They also have five batters with at least a .175 ISO against lefties.

Quick Breakdown: There may be more risk than potential reward with Ray. He’s still in play as a deep GPP flier, but I plan to look elsewhere.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 5 4.31 1.62 19.4% 8.2% 45.2% 27.1% 27.1%

Gonzalez may have a 1.62 ERA this season, but his peripherals actually look worse than they did a year ago. His SIERA and walk rate are both up, while his strikeout rate is down 3%. Even though the Diamondbacks are a much better offense at home, I try to avoid taking pitchers against them whenever possible. The trio of A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas is lethal for a left-handed pitcher. Gonzalez does have the advantage of pitching at home in a good ballpark, but he’s a bit overpriced for this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez isn’t the worst play on the board, but he doesn’t have the strikeout upside that I’m looking for from a pitcher at this price point.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Since the start of last season, Gio Gonzalez has allowed a .320 wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Diamondbacks have a fairly low implied run total tonight, but all that means is that they will get overlooked in tournaments. A.J. Pollock is still too cheap on DraftKings at $4,100 and is worth a look in all formats. I love targeting hitters that have the rare speed/power combination. Chris Owings, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas all have great power numbers against southpaws and are also worth a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.361 0.255 27.5% 6.0% 14.0% 55.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.350 0.169 28.6% 5.9% 15.8% 47.0% SS $3,300 OF/SS $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.428 0.209 46.1% 21.0% 19.5% 46.1% 1B $4,600 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.282 0.180 32.3% 12.3% 29.0% 55.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.420 0.294 46.1% 8.0% 25.9% 47.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.325 0.184 33.6% 4.7% 17.4% 50.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.286 0.111 29.8% 3.8% 17.0% 50.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,300 SS $4,500
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.347 0.144 32.0% 14.0% 21.0% 46.0% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Robbie Ray LEFT 0.195 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 70.0% P $8,300 P $8,300 P $16,000

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock (DK)

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock (FD), Chris Owings, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

This is a great spot to stack the Nationals. Robbie Ray may have an elite strikeout rate, but he also has a high strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are best used in a full Nationals’ stack rather than as one-offs given the lefty-lefty matchup, but all of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play. Trea Turner is similar to A.J. Pollock in that he has that rare combination of speed and power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.322 0.096 38.6% 2.7% 21.3% 41.1% SS $4,200 SS $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.445 0.312 45.9% 14.8% 18.8% 36.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.349 0.207 31.0% 13.5% 26.4% 43.0% OF $5,100 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.354 0.296 40.7% 10.5% 14.0% 52.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.382 0.179 35.8% 16.3% 16.3% 33.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.385 0.227 31.8% 6.2% 11.4% 36.4% 2B $4,300 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.313 0.172 33.3% 6.5% 38.7% 42.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.322 0.159 33.7% 9.6% 19.2% 34.8% C $3,000 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.000 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 38.5% 40.0% P $8,900 P $8,800 P $17,200

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth (FD), Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-140 9.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 30.8% 6.4% 21.2% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 32.9% 9.5% 24.2% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 30.5% 7.6% 21.6% 49.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 30.9% 8.9% 27.7% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 6 5.51 7.50 13.6% 11.6% 43.9% 28.4% 22.9%

If you only look at his velocity and swinging strike rate, you wouldn’t expect Gausman to be having such a terrible year. It’s hard to pinpoint the problem, but something is going on. Through his first six starts, he has a 5.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 11%. Those numbers are a far cry from where they were a year ago. I’m not sure his luck is going to change tonight against the Red Sox in Fenway.

Quick Breakdown: I expect Gausman to turn it around eventually, but we shouldn’t target him until he does.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 4 3.20 4.15 29.4% 7.6% 34.5% 31.0% 20.7%

Pomeranz is one of the more intriguing pitching options in the slate. Even though the Orioles have a right-handed heavy lineup, most of their righties are better against right-handed pitching than they are against left-handed pitching. Pomeranz isn’t usually a safe play by any means, but he is $8,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he boasts a 29% strikeout rate. I’m willing to take some added risk when a pitcher has this type of strikeout upside. This is also a good matchup for strikeouts, as seven of the projected starters for Baltimore have at least a 21% strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Given his price and his strikeout upside, Pomeranz is one of the best values at pitcher tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

If you look at the splits from Drew Pomeranz, there isn’t a lot to love. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate and he strikes both out at a clip of at least 24%. The Orioles do get to face him in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park, but I’m higher on Pomeranz than I am on the Orioles. The one exception that I will make here is for Manny Machado, who boasts a .396 wOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.359 0.160 29.0% 7.8% 17.6% 38.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.263 0.101 30.9% 6.7% 21.2% 40.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.396 0.225 40.5% 10.9% 12.9% 38.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.312 0.172 32.8% 10.2% 33.1% 32.8% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.257 0.181 37.0% 6.0% 26.5% 42.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.286 0.153 21.1% 4.8% 23.4% 48.9% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.336 0.326 28.6% 2.3% 34.1% 53.6% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,400 1B $6,800
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.312 0.153 42.0% 8.8% 15.0% 46.4% SS $2,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.128 0.073 18.8% 2.4% 21.4% 37.5% C $2,500 C $2,600 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (FD)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (DK), Joey Rickard

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox have the highest implied run total in the slate tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Kevin Gausman and they get to face him at home in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. The Red Sox stacks will be out in full force tonight and you can make a case to play each of the one through seven batters. I will note that Gausman has some serious reverse-splits, allowing a much higher wOBA (.363) to right-handed hitters. Give a slight bump to Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Hanley Ramirez.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.339 0.136 28.6% 7.2% 16.7% 47.5% SS $3,400 SS $4,400 SS $8,700
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.399 0.213 35.4% 7.7% 14.9% 34.6% OF $4,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.386 0.203 33.5% 7.4% 10.8% 41.9% OF $3,900 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.339 0.183 37.0% 8.9% 19.6% 49.2% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.309 0.190 38.7% 7.8% 22.6% 39.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.352 0.123 33.8% 7.6% 10.0% 50.8% 2B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.364 0.245 39.0% 10.4% 22.0% 47.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.271 0.083 31.0% 2.8% 22.0% 60.2% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Marco Hernandez SWITCH 0.284 0.075 27.4% 5.9% 21.2% 56.5% SS $2,300 2B/SS $2,900 3B $5,700

Elite Plays – Xander Bogaerts (FD), Andrew Benintendi (DK), Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez (FD), Mitch Moreland (DK)

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts (DK), Andrew Benintendi (FD), Hanley Ramirez (DK), Mitch Moreland (FD), Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon cincinnatimlb Rookie Davis
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-118 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 31.3% 6.1% 16.9% 52.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.553 29.4% 18.5% 18.5% 31.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 32.6% 4.5% 23.4% 53.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 30.0% 7.7% 15.4% 40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 5 4.13 2.08 19.2% 9.6% 55.2% 27.3% 18.2%

Taillon is one of the few young pitchers on the Pirates that has a bright future ahead of him. In his first 23 major league starts, he has a SIERA under 4.00 with a strikeout rate right around 20%. He has much better command than Tyler Glasnow and he induces an above-average ground ball rate, which helps limit hard contact. The issue that I have tonight is the ballpark. Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch, especially for the road pitcher. He’ll also have to deal with Billy Hamilton (who causes so many headaches when he gets on base) and Joey Votto (who is one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching).

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a bit overpriced for this matchup and can be faded in all formats.

Rookie Davis
william-davis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.34 11.17 17.0% 13.2% 36.1% 29.7% 10.8%

This Rookie has not had the start to his career that he was hoping for. In three starts, he has an ERA over 11.0 with a walk rate of 13%. He wasn’t a high strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues and that’s not likely going to change at the major league level. Even at his cheap price points, Davis is one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward tonight with Davis, especially in this ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

With a sample size of only three games, we shouldn’t put any stock into Rookie Davis splits. However, we do know that he is a low strikeout pitcher with a high fly-ball rate and a high walk rate. Those all sound good to me. The Pirates have been on fire so far in this series and that all starts with Josh Harrison, who has hit three home runs in his last two games. He is from Cincinnati and has enjoyed the homecoming party so far. Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, and Jose Osuna are all in play as well and I expect the Pirates to get overlooked in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.287 0.087 26.4% 3.5% 14.0% 44.6% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.364 0.161 33.3% 15.1% 15.1% 48.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.325 0.166 35.6% 9.6% 21.6% 36.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.328 0.190 35.4% 9.2% 17.1% 40.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.303 0.090 26.5% 13.4% 18.6% 54.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
6 John Jaso LEFT 0.339 0.149 29.9% 10.7% 16.9% 49.5% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,100 1B $6,000
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.286 0.093 24.6% 7.6% 14.4% 49.9% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.230 0.073 25.0% 4.7% 20.9% 50.0% SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.078 0.000 9.5% 0.0% 44.7% 66.7% P $8,500 P $8,200 P $16,000

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison (FD), Gregory Polanco (FD)

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison (DK), Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco (DK), Jose Osuna (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Jameson Taillon isn’t a pitcher that I like to pick on often. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. However, this is Great American Ballpark, which is one of the best parks for home runs. Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, and Scott Schebler are all on my radar for tournaments. Billy Hamilton has five stolen bases in his last two games against the Pirates and will keep running on Francisco Cervelli any chance that he gets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.299 0.072 18.5% 8.8% 19.5% 47.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.332 0.166 30.9% 8.5% 16.7% 39.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.420 0.256 40.6% 16.9% 15.2% 38.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.330 0.256 38.2% 6.0% 26.8% 33.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.314 0.154 35.1% 7.8% 23.2% 39.7% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.351 0.214 34.6% 7.7% 22.3% 50.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.305 0.065 18.8% 2.2% 12.7% 45.1% 2B $2,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.317 0.121 32.1% 9.3% 14.9% 44.6% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Rookie Davis RIGHT 0.492 0.333 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,000 P $9,900

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco detroitmlb Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-150 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 36.9% 7.0% 24.5% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 25.4% 8.2% 14.1% 55.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 31.2% 4.5% 26.0% 50.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 32.9% 8.0% 20.3% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 5 3.20 2.04 26.6% 5.5% 44.0% 20.9% 19.8%

When I first took a look at the slate, I had Carrasco pegged as my number one pitcher. However, after seeing the conditions in Chicago (cold with the wind blowing in), Jake Arrieta is going to claim that top spot. Carrasco is still worth a look in all formats though, as he boasts a 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% this season. He has had a lot of success against the Tigers in the past, holding their current roster to a .295 wOBA with 44 strikeouts in 204 plate appearances. However, when it comes down to pitcher selection in cash games, I’m going to lean on the guy facing the Phillies at home instead of the guy facing the Tigers on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is a great tournament play tonight, but I prefer Arrieta in cash games.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.38 4.53 19.9% 7.0% 38.1% 30.0% 19.2%
2017 5 5.14 3.86 17.1% 11.7% 39.7% 38.0% 21.5%

Boyd is an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS. In five starts this season, he has a 5.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 12%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and he really struggles against right-handed hitters. The Indians are better against right-handed pitching than they are against left-handed pitching, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t get to Boyd tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Over the last two seasons, Matt Boyd has allowed a .340 wOBA with a 33% hard contact rate and an 8% walk rate to right-handed hitters. Carlos Santana is cheap across the industry, but does not hit southpaws nearly as well as he does right-handed pitchers. My favorite targets here are Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, and potentially Brandon Guyer if he is batting higher up in the lineup. This may not be the spot to employ a full Indians’ stack, but this lineup has some great one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.314 0.125 29.3% 11.3% 9.2% 55.3% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.326 0.138 30.7% 7.2% 15.2% 47.1% SS $4,100 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.329 0.161 45.5% 5.9% 29.4% 45.5% OF $4,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.364 0.224 39.6% 19.3% 21.9% 38.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.353 0.158 33.7% 7.2% 12.7% 42.0% 3B $3,900 2B/3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.327 0.171 28.3% 6.1% 25.4% 43.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.393 0.194 28.8% 4.9% 12.4% 35.6% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.315 0.150 27.1% 6.8% 25.0% 55.2% OF $2,800 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.326 0.183 23.8% 5.6% 23.3% 41.9% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,100

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers got to Corey Kluber early last night, but that doesn’t mean we should start targeting them against good pitchers. In a full 15 game slate, we are allowed to be picky. I see the Tigers as easy fades against Carlos Carrasco, who has an above-average strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters. The fact that the Tigers have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate and are playing at home is more than telling.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.341 0.175 34.3% 7.1% 16.7% 33.1% 2B $3,300 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.372 0.210 40.0% 7.4% 24.8% 32.2% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.398 0.258 41.2% 10.1% 16.8% 40.4% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.338 0.181 41.1% 8.1% 14.9% 37.5% C $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.342 0.234 39.2% 8.9% 28.3% 39.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
6 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.336 0.153 36.2% 8.0% 23.5% 33.3% OF $2,700 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.368 0.209 41.0% 17.9% 35.0% 42.9% C $3,000 1B/C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.481 0.294 64.3% 5.6% 16.7% 57.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.273 0.063 15.4% 5.0% 10.8% 55.8% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious